Sunday, December 20, 2015

The Search for Snow

A most unusual winter of rain and warm temperatures has persisted in the Twin Cities. As of this writing, however, there seemed to be the possibility for snow in the Dec. 25-26 period. We shall see.


103 comments:

  1. Sorry snowlovers, now that Dave Dahl says it could be significant snow for southern Minnesota it won't happen. Maybe when he's on vacation you might get a snowstorm, anyone know when he's on vacation?

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  2. NWS just posted a map predicting rain for the Wednesday storm. They noted it would normally setup for solid snow storm, but it will be too warm -- again.

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    1. And when (if) it ever gets cold enough for snow, the storms will likely go too far south and east to give the metro significant accumulations.

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    2. Nice to see that people are finally coming to terms with my predictions back in early fall:
      "if it is north enough, it's too warm; if it is cold enough, it's too south and east".
      I have been bashed by the so called pseudo-expert that populate these blogs with all their presumptuous knowledge. And yet this is exactly what's happening.
      All you need to do is rely less on models and more on common sense.

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    3. Maybe if you are going to consider yourself an expert, you should stop posting anonymously on a message board. No one knows your predictions from any other anonymous who posts here.

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    4. That was MY prediction....

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    5. Barron232Z (airplane enthusiasts should know where that comes from...)December 21, 2015 at 5:43 PM

      At 1.28pm: said the one who posted anonymously.

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  3. Happy Solstice! On our way back to summer. And no snow on the ground! Lovin' in.

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  4. Novak putting rain/snow line in southern MN Friday night, translation don't expect a bunch of snow AGAIN. The pathetic winter of 15/16 rolls on!

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    1. Personal assaults like that won't be tolerated on my site. I'll be deleting this comment shortly.

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    2. Whats personal about expressing my frustration of this pathetic winter!

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    3. Sounded to me like you were saying "Novak says this... so the opposite's going to happen."

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  5. Not sure what Bill deleted, but if it has anything to do with Tom's idea of snow this weekend it was well warranted

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  6. NWS has actual snow Friday night & Saturday. No amounts yet.

    I haven't seen Dr. Novak's take on Friday yet. Not sure if this is a clipper like storm or something larger. Cooler air behind it.

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  7. BREAKING NEWS!!
    Shocking as it may sound, it is actually snowing in St Louis Park.
    I know, it is absurd considering it is December and it is Minnesota, but believe me it really is snowing!

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    1. I also had to do a double take to make sure I was really seeing what I was seeing. What was that strange white stuff that was falling from the sky? Is the world coming to an end?!?! Fortunately, I have learned that this white stuff will soon disappear and the threat of more (possibly significant) white stuff Christmas night and Saturday has diminished substantially along with the much colder temperatures that were advertised just two days ago. Whew, that was close! For a minute there I was afraid that our never ending April was going to go away.

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  8. Maybe we can change Christmas to January 25th to at least give us a somewhat fighting chance at a white Christmas. I know it's stating the obvious when I say that the second brown Christmas in a row awaits us in southern MN later this week. I feel bad for the pond hockey tournament players and spectators too. That January event is always fun, but it's looking like it probably won't happen this year, at least not outdoors. Thanks for nothing El Nino! Can't wait for La Nina to return!!

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  9. Blown temperature forecast today. Big time. Struggling to make it out of the lower 30s. This damn snow ain't going anywhere.

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    1. Yes, it's Breaking News on CNN right now.
      A third of an inch of snow still on the ground in the Twin Cities metro on December 22nd.
      Observers are flying in from all over the world to witness this 1 in 100000 year phenomenon

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  10. Yeah...I agree today's temps were a bust....kept hearing a high of 40...were stuck around freezing and now I'm hearing that a white Christmas is possible with tomorrow's system bringing in snow....we'll see.
    Also Dave Dahl is all in again with regards to snow potential over the next week....I for one hope he his better results because we are long overdue for a good dumping!! How's that PWL?

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  11. Interesting....Dave Mr. Snow Dahl tweeted out a snow map for tomorrow showing over 3" in the metro....fact or fiction?

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  12. Here's what the NWS has in a statement issued at 4:10 p.m:
    SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION
    TURNS TO SNOW...HOW INTENSE THE SNOW IS...AND HOW COOL THE
    TEMPERATURES BECOME. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR UP TO AN INCH
    ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
    DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. IF TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...2 TO
    3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

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  13. Paul Douglas has been talking about a "Brown Christmas" for a week now. Is he changing his tune in light of the whiter looking forecast changes tonight? I'm seeing MPR, NWS and some of the late TV weathercasters suggesting better chances for snow tomorrow. Novak how much we gonna get tomorrow?

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    1. Novak has coating-2" for the metro tomorrow. Paul Douglas says slushy coating for tomorrow,Friday/Saturday system and Monday/Tuesday, says its too warm to accumulate on the ground mostly grassy surfaces....we'll see.

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    2. Was reading the updated KMSP airport discussion at the NWS site....basically they mention more snow then originally anticipated will fall today and that the transition will occur sooner(late morning/noon)...they go on to say heavy snow should fall at a rate of over 3/4" per hour this afternoon.
      Personally I don't see it happening, I'm no expert and can be truly off base here but looking at the radar it looks like the main band is arching/curving away from the metro aiming more so towards western Wisconsin with not much northwest movement, again I could certainly be wrong its just what I see with the naked eye.
      Of course I want the snow but am very skeptical with all the near miss already.

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    3. Rain picking up now with snowflakes mixing in already in Golden Valley..like i said I'm no expert...come on snow.

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    4. Nothing but a cold rain in Apple Valley.

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  14. Bigdaddy...the system will strengthen as it moves in from the south and the precip should expand. Turning to a mix here in Roseville.

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  15. I'm not buying this either. On their graphical nowcast, the NWS reduced the chance of precip after 4 p.m., but temperatures are still above freezing. Probably a trace of snow at the most. Certainly not enough to justify a WWA.

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  16. Nice fat snowflakes have been falling in Roseville for several hours now. My sidewalk and driveway have a fluffy coating on them.

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  17. Looks like a beige Christmas for me in South Minny. Oh well. Close, but not quite. Christmas kickball here we come!

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  18. Still 34 degrees. Got a coating, but it's melting. Fast. REAL fast.

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  19. Kudos to those who kept their cool these last 24 hours as models were showing an increase in totals over the MSP metro. Novak, PD, Ken Barlow, all kept totals at a coating to an inch at best. Others like NWS and DD went bigger or at least suggested it was likely going to be more than originally thought.

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  20. Belinda did a quick weather blurb at the Wild game last night and predicted a slow afternoon commute from snow today. Didn't happen, snow has stopped here and no accumulation. NWS going with 1-2" Froday night. We'll see...

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  21. One other note. Right now there are tornado warnings in Illinois. Amazing and bizarre.

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  22. I agree wholeheartedly with Anonymous @3:34....NWS and Dave Dahl(again) were overly aggressive with their handling of today's system. Yes rain changed to snow....lucky if I got 1/2" here in Golden Valley. The lame winter of 15-16 continues this lack of cold air sucks...let's see what the next system does on late Friday. NWS already on the record for 3-6" in the grids for my area.

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  23. Hey bigdaddy, too bad your not here just across the border to the east...we had 3" of very wet snow east of Hudson. It was snowing every since 10am. It could have been more, but there was some melting.

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  24. Fresh video with Novak Weather on possible Christmas night snowstorm. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMlRwZDBFf0

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    1. Bill....I asked the NWS about what classifies as a white Christmas. Answer: 1" or greater on the ground by 6am local time on 12/25. As of this writing MSP is reporting an inch....so depending on what melts today it will be nip and tock...if anybody really cares about that historical stuff. As for me can we just get some good snows please...a lot of winter businesses and recreational areas are suffering nightly right now, besides my kids need some outdoor fun while on vacation..

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  25. I see many reasons to be excited about the snow potential for late FRI into SAT. I'm damn near all in on at least 3"-6"+ over the MSP metro & much of southern MN & western WI.

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  26. Good morning all! Merry Christmas Eve to all! I know its a bit out into the future(5 days), but I have my eyes on a potential winter storm on Tuesday of next week, I know all eyes are on the near term with tomorrow's system and rightfully so since its the next system to affect us but what peeks my interest about the storm around the 28th/29th is the forecasted track the Euro is currently depicting, dare I say it but it looks eerily similar to the now infamous Halloween Blizzard, a track that goes due north straight out of Texas into our neck of the woods. Now other models are not showing this, so it can very easily just be sunny and dry but doesn't must people lean towards what the Euro has to say first before any other model?
    Now I'm not saying we will recieve the amount of snow we got from the Halloween Blizzard but if we lay down some snow before hand and tap into some arctic air a storm that takes that track will be coming with a lot of moisture and wind. Will be interesting to see how things shake out.

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  27. Merry Christmas.

    I wanted to say thanks to Novak for sharing so much of his knowledge and forecasts. You certainly don't need to share with us. I appreciate and will definitely share your details with anyone who has a business need. Again, Thank you.

    Merry Christmas everyone, even our anonymous friends.

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    1. I will second that, Jason. Merry Christmas to everyone on this great site! A special thanks to Bill for providing us with this forum and making all of this possible. Let is snow! Let it snow!

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  28. Merry X-Mas!

    I'm nervous that the NAM hasn't responded with significant QPF for late FRI/SAT. Hopefully, as this storm comes ashore today, the 00z NAM guidance will latch on & respond with QPF. I expect it will, but.....?

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    1. Looks like the 18z NAM is already increasing the precip here. Like you said, hopefully the 0z run will really latch onto the idea.

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    2. If your basing your forecast off the NAM you will be totally inaccurate, its the worst model for winter, snowfall numbers are consistently inflated. Novak aim low this year, systems will continue to disappoint for the MSP area, especially the metro. Case in point, yesterday you spoke with so much coincidence and used the word lock and now you sound unsure of yourself.

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    3. Confidence not coincidence

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    4. Jon, I'm still confident, I'm just hesitant to be all in due to the NAM guidance and the fact that we are a good 36 hours out. Good points though.

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  29. Merry Christmas Bill, Novak, and the gang. NWS has dropped their predicted amounts for the Twin Cities a bit for Friday. Crazy winter.

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  30. So in the end another storm that was a lock to deliver seems to be fading for the metro with a cosmetic an 1-2" and then dry slotting. And then there was next weeks system that has shifted south on the models, this was interest in to see because all along the Euro model was showing heavy snow for our area and the GFS had taken it way south and now the EURO is following that trend, usually its the other way around. The almost snowless winter limps on!

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    1. Dear Santa: What did the metro snowlovers do to deserve this fate of snow screwing the metro again!

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    2. But Santie Claus, why are you taking our snow away?! Well, the evil El Nino thought of a lie and he thought of one quick. See, he said to the snow deprived metro folks, I'm going to take the ingredients for a snowstorm back to my lab. I will brew up a storm for you there, and then I will bring it back here. El Nino's fib fooled the Twin Cities folks who naively went to bed with visions of snow and winter in their heads.

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    3. But Santie Claus, why are you taking our snow away?! Well, the evil El Nino thought of a lie and he thought of one quick. See, he said to the snow deprived metro folks, I'm going to take the ingredients for a snowstorm back to my lab. I will brew up a storm for you there, and then I will bring it back here. El Nino's fib fooled the Twin Cities folks who naively went to bed with visions of snow and winter in their heads.

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  31. The GFS seems on track for tonight's/Saturday's storm but the latest NAM model run has the storm competing with a huge dry slot to the south, without much precip at all even for the metro. This has been consistent with several previous model runs. I don't believe this storm is in the bag like many meteorologists would have you think. I think Novak's contours on his latest chart look the closest to being correct as to the target of the storm, but the amounts need to be reduced by 2-3" each contour.

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  32. anybody picking up the "bickering" between Novak and Randy Hill on twitter? I also believe Mr. Hill is posting anonymously (see 10:08am post)

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  33. NWS is still holding firm in their text forecast but hasn't issued even an advisory for the metro this late. Curious to see why they are so uncertain.

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  34. NWS is doing a horrible job with this forecast, even if all set and done their forecast turns out to be spot on they are totally diminishing the meaning of headlines(advisory/watch/warning). According to them snow should fly by midnight, a mere 8 hours away, their forecast around the metro core is 4-6", its a holiday with plenty traveling the roads and there is no headline to warn/alert the public of the pending hazard.

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    1. I noticed that too. I get the feeling the NWS is really uncertain about this possible snow event. They went all in the other day with their forecast and they fell far short. They might be gunshy. However, that does the public no good; especially if the metro actually does pick up 4, 5 inches of snow.

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    2. Talk about timing. I just refreshed the NWS site and saw that they have now posted a Winter Weather Advisory for most of southern MN, including the metro.

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    3. Too late in my opinion. They may yet upgrade to a warning where there are advisories, some models are depicting more snow!

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  35. GFS and NAM models have both pretty much thrown in the towel on tonight's/tomorrow morning's storm. 3" the general maximum shown on GFS for snowfall and http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/images/plotter.php?site=kmsp&var=snow_accum&ratio=0&compaction=1&cobb=1&max_t=1 shows NWS overaggressive with its forecast snowfall amounts for MSP.

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  36. I'm sure that the NWS in MPX is concerned about some dry air that will likely flow into se MN/WI at low levels. I too am concerned about this, however I believe it will affect RST & EAU areas more than MSP.

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  37. Novak used the b-word earlier on Twitter world, yup....BLIZZARD! For Monday/Tuesday. Remember everyone it doesn't mean a)it will happen or b)blizzards don't necessarily mean a lot of snow, you can have a blizzard with just two inches. So temper any excitement snowlovers!

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  38. New video with Doc Novak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7f6F6UPPgI

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  39. Videos have really gone to the dogs Bill. Looks like the NWS and Novak are pretty close for Fri/Sat. NWS is just a little lighter, 2-5 for Chanhassen. Fun to watch Mon-Tue.

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  40. Happy wakie everybody! Nice blanket of white covering the Twin Cities this morning. Snow lovers rejoice!

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  41. NWS has put up their Monday/Tuesday estimates. 4-6 for the metro, more south around Rochester. Much colder all week. Looks like the end of our extended fall.

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  42. Glad we got some snow, but a bit disappointed in the inch or inch and a half that fell here in Apple Valley. Maybe Monday we'll see some real snow???

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  43. Glad to see that dry slot didn't make it to the Twin Cities metro this morning, wait it did! And where the dry slot suppose to be its snowing moderately in Rochester. Again just a cosmetic metro snowfall, it barely covered the blades of my lawn.

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  44. About 2.5" in Roseville. No blades of grass showing here. Just pure white. The Monday/Tuesday storm looking more and more interesting as well. Winter begins.

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  45. Two inches in South Mpls. I know it's not totally over yet, but nice job again to those who stayed a bit conservative. PD, Randy Hill, were pretty spot on. Others, not so much, incl. NWS who seems to more liberal than usual this season on snowfall prediction? Also, why in the world are they throwing out such specific numbers about Mon/Tue this far out? I expect some TV mets to do this, but the NWS?

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    1. I thought the same thing about the NWS with specific totals...

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    2. I wrote the NWS and here's what they had to say:

      I noticed on weather.gov that there are already specific accumulations provided for Monday night, which is more than 48 hours away. I thought historically that accumulations were not given until more like 24 hours before the storm. Is this a change in policy or a result of the dreaded grid forecast that appears on weather.gov? Thank you.

      We have been providing 72 hour snowfall forecasts for quite some time.

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    3. What is interesting this year is the NWS is giving three scenarios for snow storms and showing maps with them. Bill you are missing the fun of the first MN snowfall. Cars in ditches all over the place.

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    4. Ah yes, can't say I miss that fun. And I think I'd be more jealous of the snow if it weren't for the fact that I can drive a few hours and see literally feet of snow (the Sierras are getting walloped this year, which makes everyone happy -- major source of water supply for one).

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    5. The NWS Twin Cities office is experimenting with a more probabilistic snowfall forecast this year.
      http://www.weather.gov/mpx/winter

      I'm guessing a part of that includes a longer lead time for snow. Think of it more of a "this could be big" instead of waiting until its known that it will be big.

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  46. 3" in Golden Valley.....nice to see everything white!....If the Euro verifies...Monday could be huge....come on Euro!

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  47. The Euro and its 12-14" over the metro is for 10:1. Considering the temp profile, 12 or 14:1 seem more realistic. This will be a whopper for someone.

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  48. The 12z Euro puts MSP in the 12" range with no fear of rain/mix. That model is usually the most consistent and has been so far with this storm. Stay tuned.

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    1. Before everyone jumps on the snow bandwagon let's remember how most snow events have disappointed in the metro so far this year, its 48 hours away so if we are in the heavy band now we won't be when the storm arrives and lastly let's not forget about the dry slot and dry tongue that always rears it ugly head. So minus about 6" from any forecast because of what I outlined above.

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  49. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 26, 2015 at 3:58 PM

    Oh My Goodness! This is a full meal deal! We just had the appetizer which made everything beautiful, then we get the main course which could be a meal intended for a family, then we will get dessert with small chances of snow to keep topping it off! Seeing a winter storm watch out about 48 hours before an event makes me hungry/drooling. The anticipation is going to kill me. BRING IT!!!

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    1. Maybe you should stop at McDonalds for your Happy Meal with toy!

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    2. Plymouth, turn on the Sun Bowl in El Paso Texas. Snowing like crazy, they are expecting 3 - 7". That will wet your appetite!

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  50. Finally a storm to get excited about! I created my preliminary forecast and write-up for this storm last night at chasetheplains.com. Not much has changed from what I was thinking last night, and finally the NAM is coming around to the ECMWF solution. I don't expect any major changes today, although I'll have a final update tonight.

    To the poster above who said I was posting anonymously, that's completely false and I have zero reason to post anonymously. As for the 'bickering' on Twitter between Novak and I? We have different opinions on climate change. Not a big deal. This is not the first time and won't be the last!

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  51. Not sure how to add a comment with a name so for now I will be anonymous. But my name is Greg and I am 50 miles from the airport NW, I see that some outlets are advertising less snow than the NWS. From what I read at the NWS this morning these outlets may be using the GFS as their basis for snow. But, it looks like all will get something. Let us be somewhat tempered in our mostly positive outlook about snow. There will be several hundred people withing he next days either in the ditch, injured or like the poor family from Columbia heights who were all killed from the last snow. There are downsides to this. For big daddy, we are all wondering if you renewed your bet with the east coast relative on who gets the most snow. If you did what are the odds and the handicap this year.
    Bill, my son now resides in San Jose so I now have a California place to stay on occasion. He has a bro-in-law that lives in Alameda. Is that close to you?
    I guess we will see what transpires tomorrow night.5 inches from last storm in my area.

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    1. Greg, Alameda is about 30 minutes from me. It's a small island from Oakland. I've played some baseball games there.

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  52. Storm trending south. Heavy snow trending south. Maybe Saturdays storm will have delivered more then Mondays!

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    1. Right on que snowfall forcasts are coming down now. Weather.com has 5-7" for Minneapolis and that's thru Tuesday night.

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  53. Paul Douglas just dropped to 5 - 8" for the metro, 10-12 SE MN. The GFS this morning was showing the storm moving further southeast but the other models didn't seem to agree. Curious what Novak says.

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  54. The storm is trending east. We'll still get a couple of inches or so in most of the metro, but we need to temper our enthusiasm for big snow accumulations. A big snowstorm is now looking less and less likely for the metro. It appears that once again the NWS has overshot reality with the snowfall predictions?

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  55. Novak is now pushing the heaviest totals south of the metro too.

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  56. I know that it's starting to look a bit disappointing for snow fans in the metro, but remember that 5 inches of snow is a decent amount. Hopefully we will get more. Let's wait and see.

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  57. NWS just updated their watch headline and dropped their totals to 5-8", just like Novak. Everybody says EURO is the model of choice, but GFS was always the southern outlined and others are now trending that way. This is just going to be a run of the mill 4-8" storm, those who were shooting high, like NWS and Randy Hill should have shown some patience.

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  58. By tomorrow morning it will be down to 3-6" and when the storm is over your final number will be 2-4" for the metro. When will everyone learn that Minneapolis will not get even half their average snowfall this year. So many storms have shown promise this year and its either a lack of cold air or track of system that does the metro in. Learn people learn!

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  59. Storm track consensus occurring, track is now due north from Texas into N. Illinois and then veering into the Milwaukee area, this track is NOT favorable for heavy snow in the metro, yes there will be snow of moderate intensity and snowfall in the Twin Cities, but big snows approaching a foot will be in SE MN(down by I-90) and into western/central Wisconsin.
    This is why the Twin Cities was not upgraded to a warning and everybody south and east of them were. Heck this may just be a high end advisory snow for the metro. Look at it this way snowlovers, its still snow!

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  60. I like the way Paul Huttner is saying 4" to 8" for metro, but with a 25% chance that SE shift occurs and we end up with 2" to 6". Seems plausible to me.

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  61. Man when storms come there are so many varying opinions....who do you believe?....I guess its my fault for looking at what everyone is saying( I guess that's the weather geek in me, its been there since my school age years). I'm just glad more snow is coming regardless of the final inches.
    AccuWeather has 6-10"
    Weather.com has 7-12"
    Pretty much everyone else is going with 4-8" or 5-8".

    Greg(Anonymous @9:51am)....thanks for asking and having an interest in my fantasy snow competition with my brother....since it was a El Nino year I got him to give me a spread of 12" this year, but begrudgingly nonetheless...I sold it that I will be much warmer and dryer due to el nino with a lot more rain or mix events for me then usual and that he would have several Noresasters on the east coast with heavy snow. Needless to say we are both off to a slow start in terms of snow...I have measured 10" so far here in Golden Valley to his 0....so I have a 22-0 lead thus far( which has my brother fuming at this point)...but the east coast will get theirs pretty soon!...We'll see how it goes and I will update you as the weeks/months progress.

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  62. Hard to blame the NWS for throwing estimates out there. The Nam and Euro both had this thing tracking closer. NWS is now at 5 - 9. I smell a video coming...

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  63. Its just going to be a matter of time when we'll start hearing people saying the cold high pressure to the north of us will suppress the snow further south then first thought, cutting totals due to cold dry air filtering down, already surface temps down around 10°, can we say bust a day before the storm!

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    1. Not if you judge by the 00z nam.
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122800&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045

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  64. Two major things happened today. The 12/27 12z UKMET made a strong move to the NW and I don't think it's done. The 18z GFS has also moved the snow shield further north and west. The 12/28 0z run of the Nam continues to show warning type snows for the metro. Looks to me as if the warnings will cover the metro soon, if not the entire advisory area.

    I haven't had a chance to look to hard at things. But last night I did take some time to compare what the Euro was showing compared to the Nov 1st 1991 set up. I whole heartily agree with Randy Hill that there are certain things that are similar.

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  65. New video! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoixsrQA4x0

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  66. Kare 11 forecast just covered their bases by saying basically anywhere from 3-25 inches tomorrow. Stop it, just say things are fluid and expect snow and be prepared. Sick of hype, if you don't trust the NAM don't friggin show it.

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