Saturday, March 19, 2016

A Final Hurrah for Snow Lovers?

Accumulating snow was edging into the forecast for midweek. What will come to pass?

119 comments:

  1. Time to start the speculation everyone. Probably the last chance this year for a bigger storm. GFS earlier today had 14" close to the metro. 5 days out but fun to watch before severe storm season. Curious to hear Novak's latest take.

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  2. Indeed, nice to have something to follow before sever season kicks into full effect. Say models yet again showing that tight gradient that has been very typical of the storms this winter. hoping to either see a huge snowfall or nothing at all, really getting to that time of year. Nonetheless, it should be fun to follow.

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  3. GFS 00z cranking out 17" for the core, and up to 22" just to the south!

    This will be a fun few days of storm tracking!

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  4. Model guidance wobble starting to take place. I knew the amazing consensus just couldn't continue. 00z Euro just shifted the storm track a good 150 mi. further south than earlier runs. Of course, this would be a huge let down for snow lovers in the MSP metro. Meanwhile, GFS hammers the metro with 12"+ of snow.

    I'm not latching onto anything specific until early next week. Quite frankly, as much as I love the Euro, I'm not buying the further south solution, especially when viewing the upper air structure. Jet dynamics appear favorable for heavy snow over so. MN on both the Euro & GFS.

    I like the idea of a heavy snow axis from around FSD to Owatonna to EAU. Unless the jet structure & divergence aloft changes dramatically, I will stick with the idea of a Major Snowstorm over so. MN/WI.

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    1. I have been watching what the models have been showing for snowfall the last couple of days, and while the GFS has been impressive I have serious doubts if it's depiction is reality. While both the Euro and GFS look promising at the upper levels, there is a big difference in how they are handling the winds at the 850mb level, which is normally very near where the low level jet is setting up.

      Both models are hinting that the western GOM will be open, and I agree that it will be. Both models are also showing winds originating out of or near the Senora region being wrapped into the base of the developing 850mp low pressure system as the system starts to form on the lea side of the Rockies.

      So where is the difference? Both models show that the winds coming out of the western GOM will come ashore and move to the NE towards Des Moines and the Chicago area and points SE, and that is where the level moisture will reside, the air that is being sucked into the base of the developing 850mb low pressure from the SW will be dry.

      I believe the GFS is underplaying the 850mb winds out of the sw and placing more emphasis on the winds coming out of the GOM being ingested into the system to early, thus it strengthens it to fast and deepens it to quickly. Trust me the Euro also develops a very strong system, but it forms just slightly later when the upper level dynamics catch with the low level jet. I do suspect a historic March snowstorm will impact points SE of a line from Albert Lea to Red Wing up to the Seboygen WI area.

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  5. LOL! It's all over but the cryin. Stay south snow, stay south!

    Don't need it. Don't want it. Took my kid to baseball clinic this afternoon. Winter's over and good riddance.

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  6. I'm cool with a late season thumper, just please no concrete/heart attack/back breaking snow...

    Gotta love how we're in the two camps situation just like the Groundhog Day storm, GFS north and Euro south. Should be interesting to see if NCEP can win another big model fight.

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  7. NAM is really starting to cause a headache for me with the latest run. NAM is showing 3 inches in the metro while NAM 4k is showing over 10+ inches... Not to mention that the north-west metro might get none while the south-east might get a foot. Fun times ahead!..

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  8. Pesky GFS is still hanging in there. Having a hard time buying it, seems more of a hit for Rochester. Also wondering about enough cold air. Liked Randy's take on this.

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  9. I'll be doing a video about the storm with Dr. Novak at 8 tonight and will post shortly after that. If you have any questions for me to pass along, let me know.

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  10. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 21, 2016 at 7:18 PM

    Winter Storm Watch just south of us and no chatter?? Considering the last storm that was predicted to hit the southern part of the state and up through Green Bay moved north and nailed the Twin Cities metro, including PLYMOUTH, I would like to think that more chatter will come. I am currently dancing! Bring it!! And bring the discussion!

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    1. Good point, GFS nailed the metro from the beginning while most other models pointed it toward the south. The other models really didn't start trending north until the storm hit land. I think tonight's models will give us a much better idea of where the heavy snow band will setup. (Some models have trended SLIGHTLY north with the 18z run) Lets see what the 0z run has to say.

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    2. I get a funny feeling the models will trend towards eachother and take a middle path, unfortunately leaving the cities out of the ridiculous totals. Either way I think the NW metro will miss out (yet again) with a very sharp gradient.

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  11. New video with Dr. Novak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_CWdshENek

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  12. Lastet NCEP srefplumes 21z run... oh my... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes
    0-25 inch spread of snow over MSP.

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  13. Great video as usual. NWS seems to be leaning to a slightly northern track of the Euro and south of the GFS as Novak is predicting. Sorry Plymouth, I am cheering for this thing to head south. I want to golf!

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  14. I'm pretty sure models are trending north... Latest run is really starting to shift models north as I expected... Wouldn't doubt to see winter storm watches are placed in the southern metro by morning if this trend continues.

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  15. Plymouth Weather Lover not much chatter because the action is south. Novak is getting all the fun, metro gets stuck with 1-2" maybe of melting snow in four hours.

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  16. The metro core has been invited to the big show. NWS has expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include the metro core and going with 6-12+ wording. PWL... I'm sure the chatter will begin in earnest now!

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  17. Latest GFS has moved south. Crazy gradient but took most of the metro out of major snowfall. NAM seems a little more optimistic but a definite shift south. No idea how a forecaster calls this one. So close.

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    1. South? While the NWS is saying the models are now converging on a more northern track in their discussion(except the Euro).

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    2. Most the models are moving north but the GFS went south. Pretty sure 12z or 18z will move it about 5-15 miles north.

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  18. Mid-30's+, compacting snow as it falls, warm ground, high sun angle. Not going to amount to much. Not impressed.

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  19. Storm is going south per 12zNAM. 2-3 inches max for MSP.

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  20. GFS 12z images are just coming in now, and it looks like it took a slight jog to the north (approx 20 miles).

    At this point, this storm is about in the same spot as the Groundhog Day storm was (just to the south of MSP), but that storm spread north as it happened and obviously dumped a nice 10" on MSP.

    Maybe this one will do the same?

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  21. 12z GFS bringing higher totals down by I-90 but keeping the nasty gradient across the metro.

    Times like this I'm kinda glad I'm just an enthusiast and not an actual meteorologist. Not only is the gradient steep as usual but this storm gets p-type issues thrown in! Yay!

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  22. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 22, 2016 at 5:03 PM

    I need chatter. Lots more chatter! Big storm near us and the chatter kind of died out. Novak? Randy? Big Daddy? Dave? Jaw? Others? The models are mixed which should lead to lots of opinions. Bring your thoughts! Bring it!

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  23. I agree! 5 o'clock forecasts are all over the place!

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  24. I was waiting for the last run. GFS and NAM both look to me like they are nudging south and the core metro could just get brushed. I'm really impressed by how few miles from nothing to 7+" in this thing. Can't wait for Randy and Novak to make their final predictions (tonight gentlemen ahem!)

    NWS has gone to a warning south of the metro counties and current point forecast is 2-6 for Chanhassen. I'm going with 2-3" at MSP and maybe 4" southern metro. My best guess is it wobbles a little further south with Rochester taking a direct hit.

    Good news is if I'm close, it will melt Thursday in the metro!

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  25. Nothing from Novak for 12 hours. Huttner getting pissy. Bye-bye snow! :)

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  26. Pretty sure we are going to see one more nudge north on the models before the snow starts

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    1. why do you say that?

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    2. Probably just a hunch, I had the same feeling, too. Thought maybe there would be one last jog north like the Groundhog Day storm but nope, if anything a small jog south.

      I'm cool if we get dumped on, but my back and new golf clubs thank mother nature if we do not...

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  27. A final, pre-storm discussion with the good doctor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEbQ2rBRrBE

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  28. Thanks for the video. Hoping the NAM is right this time.

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  29. Plymouth Weather Lover as much as you want to will this north, its not in the cards. Sorry! For where you live and most of metro it will be a non event. Some snow, wet roads, all gone by Thursday sometime. Like it never happened. Winter next year might be better with a La Nina pattern.

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  30. Definitely a case of the haves and have nots. No doubt tight NW/SE snow gradient across the MSP metro tomorrow. Coating at best in northern Anoka & Wright counties with 6"-8"+ in southern Dakota. Hell there may be a 6"+ gradient within 20 miles. Crazy!

    Beautiful looking storm coming together on the IR satellite imagery loop. Tons of moisture getting entrained into the system now with solid dynamics pulling out of the Rockies. I'm pretty confident that ThunderSNOW will be reported over portions of southern MN tomorrow pm.

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  31. A bit late with this. As I alluded to above I never bought into what the GFS was showing for metro because of reason I mentioned plus one other one. The winds at the surface will be out of the east, north east over the metro which means drying winds. Looking at the forecast sounding from the NAM and GFS the winds will stay out of that direction all the way up to about 700mb, missing the moisture transport normally found with the low level jet around 850mb. However that's not the case at Rochester were winds will turn around to the se sucking moisture into the system near 850mb, it will snow rates will be so heavy that they will overcome any dry air.

    Therefore for the metro (kmsp) 0-2" favoring closer to 0 than 2". snow gets heavier from there going south.

    For Albert Lea to Rochester to the Red Wing/Wabasha area. That the bulls eye. I fully expect a strip of snow in the 15-18" range with a possible pocket of 18-24". Per both the GFS and NAM that's where best 850-500mb vertical velocities will reside meaning lift in the atmosphere. That were thundersnow is most likely to occur. That area could see rates at 3" per hour from late afternoon Wednesday into Thursday evening. If you know someone traveling south of the metro, please talk them in to altering their travel plans,

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  33. 6Z GFS just coming out. Rochester remains the bullseye but it is showing close to 5" over the core metro and even a couple of inches on the north side. I'm with Randy on this one and still think 2-3 at most for MSP. NAM 4K is showing not much of anything for the metro until you get into Dakota.

    Very cool looking storm as Novak noted. I thought Novak did a great job talking about it last night and how difficult it is to nail this one down. If this hits as planned, pretty dangerous for Rochester and Winona with all that heavy wet snow.

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  34. Dakota County was just raised to a Winter Storm Warning.

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  35. it is clear on radar how the dry air from the east is preventing the snow from reaching the core metro area.
    We saw this happening plenty of times with this type of systems.
    1" at best at MSP (less than the much less advertised event last saturday morning).

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Looks like your forecast has already busted and its only 2PM. Nice!

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  36. Ah yes, I suppose it is about that time for the start of the anonymous posts about dry air cutting down totals...

    In all likelihood MSP is going to get hosed on this system, but that's something we've suspected for days now.

    So while, yes, it's much less than what was advertised Saturday, that was also four days ago now and the bust potential was high all along due to model spread and of course the gradient setting up shop right overhead (because why would it set up anywhere else).

    Congrats (?) Rochester and LaCrosse on "winning" this one, seems they are a good target for these late-season storms the last few years. Wouldn't be surprised to see somewhere measure almost (or maybe even) two feet of snow when all is said and done. Snowfall rates at or exceeding 2.5" PER HOUR are a decent bet later today along with thundersnow. Should be a fun one down there.

    Anyway, the NWS has handled this very well in my opinion. The advisory might look a little weird if nothing falls, but I'm not sure what else they can do considering the gradient location.

    If you want to look at an NWS WFO dropping the ball big time, look at how GRR handled this storm. Speaking of out east, this storm is also beginning to look like a very, very bad ice storm in parts of Michigan and Ontario. Like really bad. I don't know how to forecast ice well yet but a lot of people seem pretty concerned with recent runs... Something to keep an eye on perhaps if anybody here has family or friends in those regions.

    Anyway here's my call:
    - N/NW Metro: 0.0"
    - MPX NWS (Chanhassen): 1.5"
    - MSP Airport: 2"
    - S/SE Metro (Rosemount/MBY): 6"
    - Red Wing/Rochester/Winona/LaCrosse: 10-20"

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  37. Snowing in Hopkins/Edina for the past hour now...does this earlier start mean anything as far as the storm track? I thought it wasn't supposed to snow here until at least late afternoon (after a little rain first).

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    1. Storm has swung way north, core metro now expecting 16 to 20. Total grid lock already, expect school closing to begin now! Cover you tender plants too.

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  38. lol NON.

    Remember when the domebuster basically did just that? Though it was luckily on a weekend...

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  39. Snowing moderate to heavy in Apple Valley. It appears that a solid band of moderate to heavy snow is setting up west to east across the southern burbs.

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  40. Checked mn/DOT cameras and the band seems to be quite heavy with near zero viability when looking at Valley Creek Rd... I don't think the band was expected to be this heavy....

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  41. Snowing heavily in Rosemount with quarter mile visibility. The winds are starting to pick up now too. The temperature has dropped to the upper 20's. A solid 2-3 inches so far. I think the storm shifted north?

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  42. Novak, did the track move to the north? no snow in mankato on south.

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    1. Starting to fill in nicely down there and it will rage into the night.

      I'd say about the only change is that the band over the metro set up slightly N/NW of where most thought it would. Most figured the cutoff would be 494, instead it has been 694 so far.

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  43. No, the track is nearly as expected. I'm not sure what all the questioning is about? We've said all along that an amazingly sharp NW/SE snow gradient will be found across the MSP metro ranging from nothing in Anoka & Wright counties to 6"-8"+ in Scott & Dakota counties. MSP Int'l would be right on that gradient axis. That is exactly what is unfolding.

    Some 4casters got all excited this AM and changed their tune for some reason. Perhaps they saw a model & ran with it? Not sure. You can't panic until you see the whites of the storm's eyes (radar imagery). Too many forecasters panicked this AM & went with little or NO snow for the metro. Terrible call.

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    1. "metro" is a big area...and NW half got little or now snow...

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  44. Eden Prairie snowfall rate right now is nearly as heavy as the Groundhog Day storm.

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  45. 4" in Rosemount as of 3:30PM, an inch an hour from this band so far, although it has weakened recently back to just moderate snow.

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  46. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 23, 2016 at 4:25 PM

    Just flurries in Plymouth. Makes me sad. Can't believe that I could drive 20 miles and be in heavy snow. Wow.

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    1. Hell, I'd make the drive!

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    2. PWL, I'm sorry you're missing out. As a fellow snow junkie I definitely understand your disappointment. I'm not trying to rub it in, but it's beautiful down here in Rosemount. The snow continues to fall at a heavy clip. Who knows, the next time you guys up "north" might be in on the big snow and those of us down here might be the ones wishing for more than just flurries. Let's all of us winter fans cheer for a good La Nina next season so we can all get in on the fun!

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    3. Bill, you could make the drive except the roads are gridlock in south metro. Heavy snow while I was in Eagan and now nothing white north of Ramsey county at all.

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  47. I'll admit I'm a little surprised how consistent it has been as far north as Bloomington and my home base of Chanhassen. Overall Novak looks on the money. Sadly, Randy, Neil, and I missed on the southern metro. There goes my fake weather license. Radar shows a few more hours at least - I hope it starts a southern drift soon so it melts Thursday.

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  48. I believe it is safe to say that the Euro took a crap on this one. ;-)

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  49. Looks like the heavy band of snow is finally starting to move south-east.

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  50. Great forecasting for the metro Novak. Thanks.

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  51. 4.5 inches for central Bloomington. Snow has pretty much tapered off now. Guessing there won't be anymore redeveloping overnight for the cities.

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    1. nevermind, snow has picked up again in Bloomington.

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    2. Noticing heavier bands developing again and pushing north again!

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  52. A solid 8.5 to 9 inches in Apple Valley. The snow has increased in intensity over the past 45 minutes. This is confirmed by radar. It's a winter wonderland out there. A friend just sent a picture of his home in Moundsview. There is absolutely no snow whatsoever there. Amazing how sharp the snowfall gradient is across the metro.

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  53. The upgraded euro seems to be having some issue.
    It just botched the New England "snowstorm" this past Saturday.
    But also lookng at the water vapor circulation, it seems to be the storm is slighly north and west as to where most models are forecasting it to be at the same time.

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  54. 6-7 inches here in woodbury, crushing what every model predicted right before the snow started... Crazy!

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  55. Lakeville, we're getting pounded,1“-2“ per hour for the past hour or so.

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  56. Slushy inch in South Mpls.

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  57. Lakeville, we're getting pounded,1“-2“ per hour for the past hour or so.

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  58. My perspective on this storm is it sucked and was a dud, of course I say this because nothing fell in Golden Valley and I'm sure I speak for PWL as well. To the snowlovers down south....ENJOY!

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  59. Anyone have any input on the potential of another strong low pressure system moving through the Upper Midwest Wednesday through Thursday next week?

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  60. Right now it looks like mostly rain with a possibility of some wrap-around snow (the usual 0.2, 0.3 of an inch) at the back end if moisture is left when it cools down enough.
    MSP will be in the warm sector for this one, as it appears now.

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    1. The models earlier were showing a more northerly track but with the 12Z run for Euro and GGEM showed a shift south and GFS followed as well with the 18Z run. I think if enough cold air can filter into the system there is a good chance for someone in the Minnesota to see some decent snowfall.

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    2. there is always someone that gets snow with almost any system unless maybe if you are in July or August.

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    3. Well, I'm talking about an all snow event not a mix of rain and snow.

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  61. haven't looked. I busted at MPX as I thought the most they would get was 2" but got 3.7. Also busted in the Rochester area as I thought there might be a pocket 18+, but storms reports only show about 12" max. Haven't look at the models today yet.

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  62. The WED/THUR system is going to be interesting. We have NOT seen an Arctic airmass like this in quite some time. This airmass will be pressing south into the northern U.S. as this storm system churns northeast into the Great Lakes.

    Of course, the big question is: Will that storm system be able to tap this Arctic airmass? I would not bet against this. I believe it is crazy to guarantee anything right now, especially when considering the strength & size of this Arctic airmass.

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    1. The temps being shown for the Artic airmass doesn't even seem possible... But GFS, GGEM, and Euro are all hinting of extremely cold air right behind the system. GFS is showing highs in the SINGLE DIGITS for northern Minnesota on April 1st and 2nd... Is that even possible?

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  63. Today the Euro is predicting -12 for a low on 4/2 & 4/3. That would blow away the current record low by more than 20 degrees. MSP has never seen a below-zero temp in April.

    I'd say the odds of this happening are low.

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    1. Would love to have some of what's in your pipe. Raw data off the euro shoes no -temps anywhere in MN

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    2. https://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;a=USA/MN/Minneapolis

      They've backed off (slightly). Now saying -10F low on Sunday 4/3.

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  64. The storm coming for Wed/Thur. will have no winter impact on the Twin Cities. The true arctic air doesnt arrive until the weekend and any colder air for the midweek system will be on the back side of a departing system, and thats marginally cold enough for snow, if any moisture remains by then. May have some snow impacts in northern MN, but for the TC maybe some spotty snow flurries/snow showers on the northwest winds for Thursday.

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  65. met.no doubling-down. Now saying -14 for next Sunday morning!

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  66. Bill,
    Is it time for a new thread? Seems like the speculation for the next system is already starting.

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  67. No reason for a new thread Bill.
    Next system is a non-issue in terms of snow and the so called "arctic air" for early April is largely overblown...

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  68. Storm looks to be too warm for any winter impacts

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  69. Winter is over people

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  70. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 26, 2016 at 9:35 PM

    Interesting discussion by the National Weather Service tonight. Showing a couple of models that show a low developing that may impact us late next week, after the rain event. That would be one of the truly GOOD April Fool's Day jokes. Bring that joke!

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  71. Happy Easter Bill....and my weather buddies!

    Have we seen the last of the snow for this winter?...If so Golden Valley takes out Jackson,NJ with slim win of 40-34 due to my 7" spread(real score was 34-33)

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  72. Big variance in temps for next weekend 12 degree difference.

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    1. The real cold has backed off, and snowy relapse has vanished.
      All systems go for spring!

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  73. Not that I'm wishing for it, but what happened to the arctic express that was supposed to come crashing down upon us this upcoming weekend? It seems to have disappeared overnight.

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    1. Yup Mother Nature giveth and Mother Nature take it away. Colder temps coming compared to today and tomorrow....but highs near 40 for two days is hardly arctic!

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  74. The artic air is there... It just shifted significantly more north and east than what models were showing a couple days ago.

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  75. I think we can all put away the shovels and move onto severe weather season. Anyone know how we typically fare for severe weather after a El Niño winter?

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  76. Yes there is many things we can retire and put away as the lame winter of 2015-16 comes to an end. Driveway stakes have been pulled and the gas from the snowblower has been drained and Novak can retire his impact map till next winter.

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  77. Big temp range for Sunday Strib 38 Intelecast 59

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  78. The big 'arctic-air" fraud...
    We'll be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

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  79. Big warm up coming end of next week. Major shift in the winds aloft. I predict at least two days over 80 degrees the last two weeks of April.

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  80. I predict gradually warming temps for the next three months, then gradual cooling.

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  81. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 7, 2016 at 5:00 PM

    Just to be clear, I don't like this weather.

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  82. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 26, 2016 at 5:10 PM

    Just to be clear, I don't like rainy and cold weather. May as well snow. Bring that instead of this!!! However, that week-long stretch of 70's and low 80's was perfect!!!

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  83. Bill could we have a new thread that doesn't have the word snow in it? Time to shift to severe weather discussions slight shot later tonight.

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    1. agreed, friday is looking interesting.

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