Thursday, January 24, 2019

Cold, Colder, Coldest

Minnesota's legendary cold has arrived. Enjoy... or not. And this article seems especially timely.


84 comments:

  1. What I find interesting is that people from the metro are zeroing in on the snow potential for their backyards. Yeah I get it, we all want major winter storms to impact our back yard. And so far this winter that has not happened. HOWEVER that is by far the least of our worries with this system.

    The real story here is not if we get 2 or 4 inches or even the bullseye, its the cold that follows it. We could see temperatures that we haven't seen in the last 23 years as quoted by a NWS MPX employee on the Star and Tribune web site.

    "If this week’s temperatures sound bad, wait a few days. Temps next week could hit their lowest mark in 23 years, Griesinger said. “Monday night is when the bottom falls out,” he said."

    That means that those of you that are less than 35 or even 40 years old have no memory of how cold -25° to -30° actual air temperature feels like. My guess is that those of you that are trolling this site saying that the metro never gets any snow, are the same ones that venture outside woefully undressed and end up wishing they had listened to their elders. I hope your boots have room for 3 or 4 pair of socks. I for one will break out the old Sorrels that are big enough to wear multiple layers.

    Stay safe everyone!!!




    Take care every one.

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    1. Crap.....auto fill.... that is supposed to under dressed not undressed...my bad for not catching that.

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  2. Oh and BTW all models that go out that far (about 6 of them) are now pointing to 4-10" for the metro.

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  3. In January 2014--the 'polar vortex winter'--schools cancelled classes at least five times in the metro area, I think. My grandkid was overjoyed. It seems strange that it will be the coldest in '23 years' per what I see written above. That winter of 13-14 really stands out in my memory in terms of long stretches of cold. Somehow I've survived some 60+ winters here in MN/northern WI, so 'bring it' as PWL says, only 'bring it' now means in the cold department. Bundle up!

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  4. P.S. My car would most definitely be plugged in, too!

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  5. Here’s a summary of coldest windchills, which includes the January 2014 school cancellations. http://climateapps.dnr.state.mn.us/doc/journal/historic_windchills.htm

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  6. My point forecast in WxUnderground says 5-8” for Sunday night and has been consistent this week with a range of 4-10”.

    Sorry about the rant yesterday too. I have been a weather enthusiast since I was a little kid and appreciate the insights and education I get from this site and it’s great contributors. I got defensive and didn’t come across as respectfully as I should have. Apologies all around.

    Stay safe!

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  7. So are we expecting lots of wind with this storm?

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    1. Not according to any forecasts I've seen. 10-15 mph seems to be the typical forecast.

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    2. On the early evening weather report, Dave Dahl predicted windchills will reach -40 to -50 a couple of mornings this coming week. Brutal.

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  8. Just saw a -37 temp Wednesday morning (GFS latest run) for us down in se MN (-68 windchill)! Anything close to that and I don't think anyone wants to be outside more than 1 minute!

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  9. Novak has put out a map on FB without snow totals and still has the metro in the 'moderate/anticipate problems' category with I-94 corridor the bullseye.... NWS is still saying 3-7 inches in the metro Sunday night and more snow Monday. Novak, when asked 'how much' on FB goes with 'a lot.' Yeah, Mother Nature is coy this year. DysonGuy, I hope the -37 mellows a bit by Wednesday morning or brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. No schools will be open for sure.

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  11. 23/12z 10.7
    23/18z 7.1
    24/00Z 12.3
    24/06Z 5.8
    24/12z 4.4
    24/18z 5.7
    25/00Z 6.8
    25/06Z 7.5
    25/12z 12.1

    These uses the Kuchera Ratio (The Kuchera ratio does involve taking the temperature in the lower half of the atmosphere and using that to determine the liquid/snow ratio)

    Interesting to say the least... but pretty darn consistent that snow will fall near warning criteria. Of course one has to understand that the models sometimes inflate the numbers especially days out!

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  12. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 25, 2019 at 4:40 PM

    I mean, seriously! This is just a weather lover's dream week! A snowstorm that could bring 4-8 inches or more of snow (with wind) followed by cold that we have not seen for years! It is is going to be cold, then bring it! Bring all of it! I am still hoping for a foot or more with the added Pacific moisture that the NWS is referring to. Bring that!!

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  13. There is so much chatter on Novak's FB page including some discussion there of 'why are the snow totals so high when it is so cold' amongst some of the followers. These snow total predictions are climbing for a lot of MN.

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  14. GAME ON PEEPS!!!! We may finally have a winter storm on our hands in the core....Winter Storm Watch just posted for 5-9+ inches. Some of you from the comments I've read have been begging for this for awhile(I have been too quietly on the sidelines). But as they say becareful what you wish for, Monday mornings rush hour will be a bitch guaranteed regardless of how much snow you receive because with those temperatures the road chemicals are pretty useless. Enjoy and stay safe!!

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    1. Exactly, bigdaddy! The silence from some is noticeable. 'It never snows' in the metro and 'winter is a bust.' Right. As PWL says, 'Bring it!' You enjoy it and stay safe, too.

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    2. There is still time for it go south and west.
      A reminder that the model made a 360 turn on last week’s storm the night before.
      So there is definitely still times for it to avoid the metro, especially considering the fickle and volatile nature of clippers.
      Tonight’s model will tell.., but I would not count your inches of snow until the fall.
      Given this winter I’ll only believe it when I see it, so I would not be that excited yet. Core metro snow lovers may be disappointed, as usual.

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    3. You must be fun at parties.

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  15. Its interesting the ICON model and Gem took a bump south today. Its pretty dang close to euro and ukmet. I would watch out for euro type track again...it destroyed all models last storm that were to far north overall

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  16. Novak has posted snow totals on FB; 6 to 9" to 9-12" ranges cutting right through the metro with lower totals north end and higher totals south/southeast.

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  17. Cuz we are buying bread and toilet paper...

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  18. Cuz we’re waiting for it to bust

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  19. Watching the HRR, totals have been increasing through the day. Right now it shows 12" for the metro. That isn't far off from the NAM. GFS is the outlier with around 5". Looks like the real deal. Worst part if how fluffy the snow will be and the winds. Nasty driving Monday morning.

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    1. Speaking of Paul Douglas, he says 40° by Saturday. Melting snow anybody? This too shall pass!

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    2. I've been seeing that too. Right now the HRR Kuchera method is showing 14 inches for the downtown area, RAP model is showing 15 inches, and NAM NEST is showing 12 inches.

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    3. As much as I would love to see that, I am skeptical. Even the SREF plumes are off the charts, but I think a fair bet is for somewhere around 6-7 metro wide. Still hoping that those high res models are right though!

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  20. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 27, 2019 at 2:01 PM

    I may be about to wet my pants!! Bring it! And bring this whole week!!!

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  21. Relax people a clipper will not drop double digit snowfall in the metro, just be happy with the 4-8” forecasted!

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  22. My Weatherbug point forecast now shows no totals at all and only a 30% chance of precipitation tonight and 40% tomorrow.

    Huh?

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    1. Yup bust Joel. Was suppose to be snowing already but instead the sun is shining brightly, no clouds.

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    2. wow you really dont know how to read a radar do you LOL

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    3. That is weird. It’s starting later but looks like it will be ending later too. NWS and weather.com have lowered daytime totals for me but increased overnights. Still forecasting 6-10 total.

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    4. I've noticed WeatherBug being out to lunch often...

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  23. 3pm WINTER STORM WARNING now in effect and its full sunshine. Is this another miss?

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  24. i think its funny all these people that have names but its just the same person making comments to themselves to try and prove a point LMAO....

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    1. I am honestly starting to think that too...

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  25. Snow lovers, how many deaths on MN roads will it take for this to be a good snowstorm? Asking for a friend.

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  26. PWL may be dead by tomorrow with excitement if the HRRR proves correct. Every run is keeps adding to the total. Is this thing slowing down?

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  27. The point forecast for Richfield is now 7-12” and lows of -27 and -26 Tuesday and Wednesday nights. That’s what I call Winter.

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  28. Does it mean the system has slowed down that it is starting later and snow totals getting increased? Would like to know NWS reasoning for increasing totals. This morning’s discussion said they lowered totals since quick clipper doesn’t produce double digits. NWS now inlinee with what Novak has been saying.

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  29. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 27, 2019 at 4:20 PM

    I don’t want to die but what does the HRRR show???

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  30. Latest HRRR screams BUST!

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    1. Yep, I'm seeing 2-4" for metro core. Whole thing shifting south.

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    2. Agreed.... KARE just forecast the heavier totals near 494 and south of there v. the core and northward. / only 3-6 in core?!?!?!?.... my jaw is hanging. Can't wait to see what KSTP says next on their forecast...... NWS still calling 7-12 inches+...... Can't wait to see what I see in the morning.

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    3. I wish the temperature forecasts would bust. -28+ air temp..... brrrrrrrr.

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    4. Huh, 3-6? My money's on a dusting north of I-94. I'm seeing a possible half-inch south. Big time bust.

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    5. KSTP still calling 5-10". Like I keep saying, 'Time will tell.' If the totals are what you say, anonymous 5:21 p.m., then NWS better give itself an 'F' grade!

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    6. And WCCO is predicting 8 inches across the heart of the metro.....

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  31. Don’t know what you guys are seeing but the latest HRRR at the time of my writing has around 7.5/7.7 inches in the core metro..

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  32. I'm looking at the radar. I'm starting to get a BAD feeling...AGAIN...about any significant (4 inches or more) of snow in the core. This just is not our winter. Case in point; check out this link. smh

    https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/snowmap/snowmap190124.html

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    1. But that is a map from several days ago. ?? Am I missing something?

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    2. Yup I agree with you Joe, heavy snow is setting up south of the metro.

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    3. @WeatherGeek, this map is from Jan. 24. It shows what lousy luck the core metro has had snow-wise this season. I would not be surprised if with this storm the core comes out on the low end again. The radar returns as of two minutes ago are definitely favoring the far southern metro and points south and east of there, which are places that have already picked up an appreciable amount more of snow than the TC this season.

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    4. Thanks for the additional info/clarification.

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  33. Novak video posted at 6 PM. The jackpot (a foot plus) now appears to be from LaCrosse, WI east through Madison, WI

    https://www.facebook.com/NovakWeather/videos/328210784465165/

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  34. NWS tweet 2 minutes ago responding to a question....

    It certainly is possible that the heaviest band ends up closer to Mankato than the Twin Cities, but we think that heavier band to the south will lift north toward I-94 over the next few hours.

    So no need to panic. They know what they are talking about...

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  35. Schools are closing left and right/late-starts, too. St Paul has already cancelled tomorrow's classes...... people are arguing about that on FB. Maybe there will be four days of no school this week for some districts due to the blowing/drifting and then the rock-bottom temps/windchills!!!!

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    1. Just drove home from the wolves game. If the forecast is right and the snow doesn’t let up until sunrise, these districts will not be able to safely pick up kids on time. Typically large urban districts don’t do late starts because of complicated logistics surrounding busing, staffing, and student demographics/needs.

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  36. But I was assured by those on this site that it never snows in the Twin Cities.

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    1. And this season it hasn't! Did you see the map posted by Joe @7:39 PM this evening?! Stop trolling!

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    2. Bill, it's snowing. Right now. In the Twin Cities. In January.

      The season ain't over.

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  37. Seriously guys and gals. This event is not really about how much snow "X" point would get, but will it be enough to realize the cold temps that the models have been depicting for the last week of runs. Sadly its true. Very dangerous conditions out there this week take care everyone. Mpls, St Paul and Anoka-Hennepin school district all closed according to Kare 11.

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  38. Just taped 1.75 - 1.85 of compacted minicrystal snow. Looking at traffic cams you can see quite a distance off so the sky is not dumping flakes of large size. It's dense crystals, like bages of granulated sugar. It is not wet heavy but it is dense so it has a compacted weight to it. I'm heading out in an hour for commercials then residential's then return in the evening for commercial reclean.
    The trucks aren't covered with a lot due to wind blowing the dry crystals off.
    Location: Minnetonka at 7 and 101

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    1. Thank you for the update/hard work! I'm about 7 miles from there, so it's a good measure of how much might be outside my own door.

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  39. Nws cut the snowfall in the metro by 1/2. 3-4 inches now

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  40. Solid 2 inches at this time coming down a little heavier.

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  41. 2.2 to 2.4. Eden prairie at 212 and prairie center Dr.

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  42. This storm in general has under performed across the board no matter where you were compared to what models were hinting at.. But there looks to be good news for snow lovers! Early next week there is a chance of a massive snow storm some where in the Midwest!

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  43. We got 5-6” of snow in Maple Grove as of 5am, so the forecasts weren’t too far off for the north side of the metro

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  44. I would say moderate bust. The storm really never got it going.
    Curious to see how the NWS grade itself.
    I also expect lots of second-guessing and criticism for the school closing decision...
    And of course... 2 inches of RAIN expected early next week.
    Some maybe the statement “it never snows in the metro” may not be correct. But I feel snow lovers mean “it never snows as much and as often as you should expect given avg winter temperature”, which is a correct statement.

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  45. 4 inches by the airport in south minny. Definitely underperformed. Much less than what many were saying even during the storm! NWS stubbornly wouldn't take their totals down until later on. People were posting 12-18 inch amounts the short term models were showing, saying "all models are upping the ante." I'd give higher grades to KARE who seemed most conservative. And the Weather Channel, who I think was in the 3-5 range before the snow started falling (though they were higher earlier that morning to be fair).

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  46. Bust here was mostly on snow ratio. Models actually predicted QPF pretty close.
    But actual snow ratios were close to 12:1, rather than the advertised 20:1, and 25:1.
    But I am surprised the NWS got it so wrong: when in Earth does a clipper dump 10+ plus?
    It never happens.

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    1. Actually, areas just south of the MSP metro & over a good chunk of WI received a solid 6"-10" of snow. So, it wasn't that much of a stretch to expect close to 10" in the MSP metro.

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  47. Underperforming snow, yes. Closings weren't necessary, correct. The late start decisions were wise with the wind, drifts, and late sunrise time. I don't think armchair administrators recognize the complexities involved for a school district to make a weather decision. You are talking about the safety of a vulnerable population of children, many too young to simply stay home by themselves. A couple things to consider: 1) larger, more urban districts have a very tough time running late starts due to logistical nightmares, so often they have only two options: open on time or close. 2) parents need/want as much time as possible to prepare for a school district's decision. Again, the larger and more urban the district, the larger the actual number and percentage of families that have a severe hardship if not given enough lead time to prepare. They don't all have easy "snow day" alternative plans for their kids. That's why so many districts make the decision the night before.

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  48. I agree that this storm under performed in the MSP metro, but again, the storm nearly achieved in other parts of the region. Although MSP Int'l only measured around 4" of snow, much of the MSP metro is coming in at the 4"-6" range. Meanwhile, areas like Rochester, Eau Claire measure anywhere from 6"-8" of snow. That is a healthy snowstorm.

    There just seems to be bad luck in the MSP metro this season. I simply don't know what it is rather than just a coincidence. Much of northern & southern MN have received near or in excess of 3 feet so far this season. MSP Int'l = 17.0" or so.

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  49. Cold, Colder, Coldest, you got THAT right. Some schools are closed 3 days in a row now, this week, and I'm betting on a possible fourth day in a row if it goes to -30 Wed night as predicted.

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  50. Just made a new thread to talk c-c-c-c-ccc-old.

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  51. Agree that the models missed by around 50-100 miles. South central Wisconsin did get 12”+ and the models were very close there. Hard to say what triggered the ramp up as the storm approached. Really would have been a non-story if all the schools hadn’t closed. Turns out we had a routine January snowfall.

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