Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
With one major snowstorm done, are there more on the way for the week after Christmas? What say you?
Damn 18z GFS! I see you.
What do you see? One local channel was predicting some heavy snow Wednesday. I keep checking Novak, but it's a holiday, so nothing, yet. My 'silly' time and date is putting out monster totals, but many have said not to take too much stock in that site. What do you see, bigdaddy?
The 18Z GFS shows 18” in and around the metro. Take it with a grain of salt at this point but the trends are pointing at a significant snow event at this range. There will be ample gulf moisture to work with this one....I can see this storm exceeding the snow totals from two days ago but track will be key to see where the heaviest will go. We will see snow no doubt question is how much.
Let’s not sleep on tomorrow(Sunday)....quick-hitting 1-3 incher clipper on the way. Doesn’t have the “big” numbers but snow is snow!!
Love all this and thank you for commenting, big daddy!
You welcome....from one snow fan to another snow fan!
It is now looking like the Tuesday/Wednesday storm is going to be more of an Iowa storm?
Not sure how you’ve come to the conclusion. Latest 12 runs show Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Novak made the comment this afternoon on his Facebook page. https://www.facebook.com/NovakWeather/
I'm not saying we won't get snow. At this time, Novak is saying a quick hit of heavy snow will pretty much be it. I hope we get a ton of snow! Things will probably change between now and Tuesday. Keep the faith, snowlovers!
NWS forecast discussion this afternoon is also saying the Tuesday/Wednesday storm is looking like it will go farther south. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Just a note here to say that it's possible the site will out-of-action at the end of the year. One of the frequenters of this site kept the domain registration going; I'll have to see if that's possible. Otherwise... well it could mean we have to go to Facebook. So, just a heads up.
Sorry don’t do Facebook, so c’est la vie....this has been a fun forum throughout the years. Love winter and snow talk.
We'll see what happens, Bigdaddy!
Can't you just use the free blog provided url whateveryournameisssetupas.blogspot.com ?
We're set now to go through 2021. (As is with the paid domain.)
Thanks Bill, and pass that along to anyone else that has kept this site alive, I know I don't post as much today as I used to, but I really do appreciate the site.
Thanks Bill, good to know we can continue on with this page.
Snowing steadily in Maple Grove/Plymouth area. No wind. Very pretty snowfall! Already have picked up about 1.25 inches. Snow just increased in intensity a few minutes ago.
Geezs the Tuesday Wednesday storm disappeared as fast as the vikings playoff hopes...
ha ha ha that is a good one.... guess I should have known that would happen being in MN, then....... bummer.
Today was a nice snow globe day, slightly over 2”. Now onto Tuesday/Wednesday system which looks like a solid 3-6” for most of us. So a very snowy last week of December for sure after 6 weeks of nothing! First full week of January looks active as well....be safe out there folks!
I'm really worried about DRY air limiting snow totals across portions of southern MN/WI. Strong 500mb jet streak surges into so. MN tomorrow evening. Perfect recipe to screw things up for some.
Thanks for the update on here and the dry slot update on your FB page, too....... 'shared'.......
It's interesting that Novak just posted that comment about the dry slot. Based on what I am reading, it appears the metro and points north might be lucky to get 2 inches from tomorrow's system, which is the amount the northern metro got yesterday from the weak clipper. What a difference 2-3 days makes when it comes to weather models and forecasts. I take those models with a grain of salt anymore, especially if they are more than 36 hours before the onset of the event. As "ben" posted last night, tomorrow's storm disappeared as fast as the Vikings' playoff hopes. Now the NWS is predicting temps well into the 30's and dry weather pattern by next Monday. Deja vu all over again?!
Coming down pretty well in south Minneapolis. I imagine we will easily hit 2” if we haven’t yet. If this keeps up a few more hours I could see 3” total to shovel
Novak just posted a link that goes to 'Bring Me The News'... it is a very long link. I can try posting here and then see if it works. https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-weather/dec-29-novak-weather-snow-pushes-through-tuesday-evening?fbclid=IwAR2muSBCxK93Yk8iWKy-G_Y-tLoDKLz4b2sjCx80FYTSkS2YTe01VUutSxs
Seems to work........ NOAA Twin Cities is sticking with the 2-6 inches around here.
2.4 inches MSP airport; 3.5 Chanhassen per noaa site........
Watching Dave Dahl do his last forecasts tonight after 43.5 years at KSTP. Happy Retirement, Dave. Thanks for all your forecasts. I like his candor at only predicting a few inches for the great Halloween Blizzard at first, and it kept on snowing.
Relive some of it https://tcmedianow.com/1991-halloween-blizzard-day-2-kstp-wcco-kare/
Cool link. Thanks for sharing. What memories. I had an extra snowbound child with me for three days.... long story ..... again, great link. Happy New Year to you and everyone on the blog.
Happy New Year, everyone! Hopefully the new year will bring us many snowstorms to track!
Happy New Year to you, Schnee, and to all the snowlovers out there in MSP land! Yes I hope we have plenty of snow to track this new year.
Models have the first two weeks of January looking like the first three weeks of December, warm/dry (in other words "Wimpy")! Here's hoping things change. So far, La Nina has been a big flop for Minnesota this winter.
imo ...2nd week has potentialBetter find some coal too
The GFS is spinning up a big system in the middle of the month. Of course it’s a ways out still, but hopefully it’s something we can track.
I'm driving to Upstate NY next week and then back home the week after that (moving my kid to college!). While I normally love the snow and even a few days here and there of polar vortex, I could do without while I'm on the road.
Safe travels to you. I used to have a neighbor from upstate NY, and he'd always say the snows here were 'nothing' compared to there..... so once again, safe travels to you as you help move your kid to college.
At least the polor vortex will be on its way
Difficult to comment on here when the maps/models are sooooo boring. But I did love the weather from the December 23 storm through the couple other snow events. Loved it!! Time to get back to that! Bring it!
There's NOTHING out there for snowlovers. Boring is a understatement, not a clipper not even a flurry. The pattern is horrible, southern US has all the action. Do not be surprised if January ends up with 1-3" for the ENTIRE month and thats being optimistic.
That's what December looked like, too, until it didn't.
Don't forget, the first 22 days of December were a bust for winter.
Since there's no snow to talk about, let's discuss something every bit as stunning -- hoar frost! Novak mentioned a possibility of hoar frost this week but I don't know what days this is possible. There was nothing in SW Minneapolis when I woke up this morning (8am). Anyone?
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Snow Drought's comment regarding January. The more I read and look ahead, the more dismal January appears for snow/winter lovers here in the Upper Midwest. I hope things change soon. Time will tell, but it's not looking promising....
The GFS is still trying to pull in some crazy cold air next weekend. No precipitation, but the blizzard we had before Christmas looked similar 10 days out in the models. Then the Low deepened as it got closer and pulled in more and more Gulf moisture in the days leading up to the storm. This is me hoping for a similar change in this pattern...going out with a bang!
One more glimmer of winter hope (and I can’t stress the word GLIMMER enough)...the CPC updated their 8-14 outlook (for Jan 13-19) and bumped MN into the Above Average precipitation category. MN also shifted slightly from the high above normal temperature outlook to the normal/slightly above category. All in all a shift in the cooler and wetter direction. That’s a thing!
Wishful thinking is free! Good luck. But @JAW the pattern is still horrible, nothing even resembling an 1" for the MSP area and thats looking out to late January. Cold, sure...below zero? probably! but thats expecting in January.
So by the 3rd week of January....We'll see -40?
LOTS of chatter in the weather world about the pattern changes coming around the corner. I enjoyed this article...https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/stratospheric-warming-winter-weather-coming/Here’s to hoping we don’t have to stand on the sidelines and watch the east coast have all the snowy fun!
Thanks, JAW! I'm forever praying for snow!
When Novak speak, this person listens! He is talking about the structure being in place to support SNOW later this week. Here we go - something/anything!! Bring it!
Excited to see that there’s enough confidence for snow this week to get Novak going! The system looks warm-ish now, but hopefully it strengthens, digs its heals in, and pulls in some colder air to make it an all-snow event. Enjoy the tracking ride!
From the NWS this morning...“ The chance for seeing hazardous winter weather late Thursday intoFriday is increasing, with several inches snow and strongnorthwest winds possible, with the greatest potential forsignificant winter impacts in Minnesota.”
It looks like Novak was on to something again. He by far was the first to call the Christmas blizzard. He and the Euro have been calling for significant accumulating snow later this week, while others have been downplaying it (e.g. last night Ian Leonard said we might have "scattered flurries" on Thursday, and Chris Shaefer said "it won't be much", that maybe we will get perhaps 1-3 inches. NWS forecast discussion this afternoon: The main focus of the long term will be the continuation of thesystem that begins moving into the area Wednesday night. Most of theprecipitation looks to be post-frontal given where front relativeflow is leading to lift, and the moisture columns looks to saturatequickly and nearly at the same time throughout its depth. This meansthere could be some window of mixed precipitation (rain or freezingrain depending on near surface temperatures), but that window shouldbe short with things changing over to snow as the entire column coolsbehind the front. Snowfall rates with the frontal forcing could getabove a half inch per hour, but the snow shouldn`t last more than afew hours, so at this point it looks like just an inch or two wouldbe possible Thursday morning. Guidance continues to exhibitsubstantial spread on forecast details Thursday through Friday, butthere is general consensus on a surface low intensifying some as itmoves across Minnesota Thursday, before it slowly occludes and fillsFriday into Friday night. It will be very slow to move out of thearea, so after a general lull in precipitation post cold front, wewill see a prolonged period of light snow from late Thursday intoFriday night. The ECMWF continues to be the most bullish in terms oftotal precipitation, but there is general consensus on amounts from aquarter to a half inch during this second phase of the event, so adrawn out accumulation of 4+" looks to be a safe bet across much ofthe area. The main question is whether we`ll see a band of moderatesnow Friday as a broad TROWAL feature reaches in from the northeast(and we see somewhat rare warm advection from the north). If amoderate band is able to develop along the periphery of the TROWALthen some locations could see upwards of 8", but at this point thereis too much uncertainty to have any confidence on if and where thatwill occur. There is much more confidence on a long duration ofbreezy conditions from Thursday through Friday. An initial burst ofhigher northwest winds with gusts above 35 mph will occur behind thefront Thursday, then another window of higher winds with gusts above40 mph seems likely on Friday as we get into the tighter pressuregradient. However, the combination of a weakening low (which willcounteract any isallobric contribution) and warm advection (whichworks against mixing) should keep the winds somewhat in check.
This snow storm looks quite tricky to forecast and I bet we will see quite a spread in predictions - not only in amounts, but also in timing and duration. Mets are probably wetting their pants not knowing how to predict this thing. I am wetting mine just thinking about how exciting it will be to watch it unfold. Bring it!!!
And need more comments here. Let's discuss this thing. Bring it!
Well, I'm watching the latest news predictions right now and have to drive a little kid through it for something we have planned Thursday, so hoping the bulk of it comes later that day. This 'thaw' seems way too early, and now I'm seeing snow totals spread all the way across Friday with ranges from 3-8 inches across the immediate metro. I've been keeping my eyes on Novak's FB page, too. Keep dancing, PWL. It's coming. I just don't have the scientific background to add anything more. Dance, dance, dance.
OK; KSTP says 3-6" on top of rain, too, and now I'm on KARE to see what the prediction is.
KARE 11: track 'too early to tell' but plowable through Friday. Couldn't get the totals as the t.v. signal kept going out!! Guess Old Man Winter doesn't want me to know, ha ha ha. Novak hasn't put out numbers, yet, on his map.
Fox 9: rain/snow and heavy gusty winds with 'a few inches' of snow! This forecast seems to bank on more rain?? What a contrast in forecasts. Dance, PWL.
CCO: Chris S said a “long duration event” with a chance for a few inches Thur+Fri
So quiet in here. Did someone launch a similar site and everyone bailed?
No way! :+) The weather has been a bit quiet, though.
I loved it that the hard core weather enthusiasts have stayed on this BLOG.A couple of comments:- Nobody should be surprised if we receive significant snow over MN/WI later this week. For several days now, Guidance has been showing a deepening trough with crashing heights over the Plains/Midwest.- One of the biggest problems in the weather forecasting industry is that many outlets simply look at model QPF when forecasting. That is a HUGE mistake. QPF is highly unreliable when looking 48+ hours in advance.- I usually start predicting snow totals once most of the storm's energy has come ashore the west coast. In this case, that is happening this morning.As far as this storm is concerned, the mid and upper level dynamics are more than impressive. So, the potential to over-achieve is high = some surprises for many of us.
Awesome! I don't follow any local outlets other than NWS, your pages and this page. Can't wait! Thank you, Tom!
Thanks for visiting and offering your expertise, Mr. Novak. I'm going to be out in it tomorrow morning through early afternoon, so I hope it doesn't bury me, but I welcome the snow. I keep watching for your predictions regarding snow totals on your FB site. Thanks again and may this blog live on for a long time to come.
Model Predictions:(as of 8am 1/13)Twin Cities metro-06Z NAM....4-6”-00Z Canadian...8-10”-00Z ECMWF....8-10”-00Z UKMET....8-10”-00Z GFS.....8-10”To say I’m shocked there are no weather headlines(watches/warnings/advisories) out from the NWS is an understatement for two reasons....one we are inside of 24 hours of the start of precipitation as well as there are watches in southwest MN and northwest WI as well as the going forecast for Minneapolis is 5-10”, so just strange in the delay. I understand there could be uncertainty and models flip flop but a watch is just that, a heads up of the potential incoming weather and if warranted you upgrade to a warning or downgrade to a advisory. We’ll see what happens but it seems that the NWS is pussyfooting around while Novak is all in, and not just today but the first to spread the word starting on Sunday.Nonetheless with all this said this looks like a tricky forecast with temps borderline throughout the event, with the storm developing virtually overhead or just to our east and then retrograding west and with the long duration of the snowfall I can definitely see surprises like Novak mentions, it all depends on who are the lucky ones under the higher intensity snow rates. Time will tell but at least we have active weather to track!
It’ll be fun watching you a Sven contradict each other on your news site.
For Novak’s above comment
Big Daddy...thank you for that model comparison. It’s good to hear what all the weather outlets are saying, but I find the model comparisons MUCH more interesting!And it’s great as always to hear from Novak in this blog! He has plenty of outlets to share his thoughts, but it’s cool he’s still sharing here as well. Now, time to kick back and enjoy this storm unfolding!
Oh dear! I'm leaving tomorrow afternoon for upstate NY (dropping my oldest off at college for the first time!). I hope I can get out of town before things get messy. Due to a doctor appointment for college student before hand and quarantine requirements in NY state before move in, we have no wiggle room on leaving earlier or later. This system is more or less going to be following us the entire way but doesn't appear to change over to snow out east until Saturday.
Safe travels to you!
Let's just be clear - Novak rocks! His insight and foresight are spot on. I had wondered if he forgot about little ol us on this blog, but he hasn't! Great to hear from him and read his comments. Thanks, Novak!Now......Bring it!!
Paul Douglas has chimed in with a conservative 2-4”, citing the 06Z EURO and the 06z NAM. My hunch is he will increase as the day wears on.In my opinion to me this looks like a higher snowfall with wide range snowfall forecast....like a 5-10” or 6-12”...why? because you can see these ranges in a relatively small distance like let’s say 25-50 miles. This looks like a fun one where we will have snowfall over two days, let’s enjoy and hope for surprises.
Winter Storm Warning just popped up
We got our Winter Storm Watch from the NWS...calling for 5-9” with 45mph winds. Bring it!
I love it when we are in or right next to the bullseye! Sit and spin on us, Mr/Mrs Snowstorm! Bring it!
Can we get a new thread for this event?
I will message our blog master/Bill. Since he's not on MN, we need to remind him when we finally get some exciting weather around here. :+)
Ben, Bill put up a new thread.
Novak is going live at 8pm on FB.
Cool! I'll have to check it out later. We have our new post site for this snow event.
Thanks for your post. I’ve been thinking about writing a very comparable post over the last couple of weeks, I’ll probably keep it short and sweet and link to this instead if thats cool. Thanks. christmas trivia questions and answers