Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Tracking a Weekend Storm

Might you be looking out the window at accumulating snow as you watch football this weekend? Anticipation is growing for a possible snowstorm over the weekend.

43 comments:

  1. I'm looking out the window right now at some accumulating light snow as the forecast has just gone from 'less than a half inch' to 'around an inch' here in the metro and we will see if it creeps higher. "Appetizer" for the weekend? Perhaps. Thanks for the new thread!

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  2. I am seeing the same out west of the Cities core, and I think it is a testament to what can happen with colder air and just a little bit of moisture.

    Looking at the models for Saturday and Sunday, it could be a similar setup. We might not need a flood of Gulf moisture to get measurable and plowable snow.

    Love it!

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  3. Around 2 inches around the Mankato area.

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  4. This won't be a huge snow maker, but it will could overperform if the temperature difference can be more significant when the warm air overrides the cold air and we see the ratios approach the 20:1 ratio.

    I saw we get 5-6 inches. But if we can get that ratio up, we could see 6-8. The amounts, imo, will not get out of hand.

    Bring it!!!!

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  5. I like your thinking, PWL!

    The NWS forecast discussion makes it seem like a slam dunk for snow on Saturday. For those of you that have access to computer models, what do you see?

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  6. The GFS has been fairly consistent these past few days putting down .3-.4” of precipitation. With last weekend’s warmth, that would have been a few inches of slop.

    With this weekend’s colder air, that could be in the 6-8” range. Like PWL said...it will be interesting to see how the ratios play out.

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  7. Novak put out a map with the metro area in the 'anticipate problems/moderate' travel impact for Saturday/early Sunday. No inches, yet......... noaa is saying 2-4 inches Saturday but also has snow in the forecast Saturday night, too, so........ dance, PWL, dance!

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  8. We’ve probably got about 24 hours before the system comes ashore and starts to affect the models, right?

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  9. GFS has me at 3.78 qpf for the total
    I'll be watching pine county area

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  10. This is pretty interesting wonder if we'll see anything from these storms.

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/major-winter-storm-forecast-snow-alaska-mk/

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  11. Okay, NOAA is putting out 4-7 inches in the metro Saturday/Saturday night.

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    Replies
    1. Hopefully we get a bunch before sunset so we can enjoy the view!

      With the temps in the teens, I like the upside in this system. Even an additional 0.1” of precipitation could be an additional 2-4” of snow based on the ratio.

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    2. Exactly. Paul Douglas says this will be slippery stuff on the roadways due to colder temps and lighter snow v the heavy wet stuff we had last time; Novak put out a map with 2-4 inches for the metro. NOAA is still saying 4-8! Maybe they will come down more in line with Mr. Novak. Like I say, 'time will tell' and DANCE, PWL.

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  12. Dancing, dancing, dancing!! I love Novak, but this time I am pulling for the NWS! If it can develop on the early side and linger a few more hours than the models show, the light fluffy stuff should add up to even more.

    Bring it!!!

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  13. Where is Novak's map? I don't see anything from today.

    What is getting NWS to put out 3-6" this afternoon? Are models improving?

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  14. This is really setting-up to be a beautiful snowfall. The forcing in ALL layers of the atmosphere is pretty darn good. Combine that with temperatures well below 32F in from the ground up & you get a rather efficient snow making machine for about a 12 hour period. This has all the makings of a 3"-6"+ snow. I can't imagine many locations will get much more than 6", but still a healthy dumping.

    You don't get slam-dunks like this very often since we are usually battling dry air, marginal temps, rain/snow line, etc. We don't appear to have any of these issues tomorrow.

    Tomorrow's snow should make a lot of snow lovers happy over the southern 1/2 of MN.

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  15. Yes!! Love the slam dunk reference any time as it relates to snowfall. Bring it! We snow lovers will take the upper end and hope for that. 6-7 inches would be awesome!

    My dancing is working and it will continue! Down 10 pounds as a result! Glad this storm isn't coming with wind or I might blow away!

    Bring it!

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  16. Thanks for all the insightful information. Been a viewer for a few years and really hope the site stays. Let it snow!

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  17. My local snowfall forecast for Maple Grove yesterday was 4-7 inches. It's now down to 2-4 inches. It appears confidence in having any appreciable snow in the metro, except maybe the far southern metro, is decreasing?

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    Replies
    1. You need to stop following those weather apps. Most of them simply base their text forecasts off of a certain model guidance data. So, you will get rapid fluctuations in forecasts and storm totals = frustration on your end.

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    2. It is a great example of "they" and one of the big reasons why the general public is so frustrated & confused with weather forecasts. I can't tell you how many times someone has bitched at me for saying it was going to snow X amount, then they realize that it wasn't me but instead their weather app. that said it.

      These apps are also the main culprit for when people comment: well "they" said it was going to do this and it never happened.

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  18. This is another example why I love Novak. He studies the charts and data, including the jet structure and ALL of the data, is patient with making predictions yet throws out a map that gives people a heads-up about a potential something as soon as it makes sense to give people a heads up (usually well in advance when using his slight/moderate/high map). The ballpark amounts start to emerge based on the confidence level of the storm and then specific totals come out when the time is right. The storm totals are adjusted when/if needed. However, they don't need to be adjusted much since so much work went into the total prediction up front. Novak will also talk about the flies in the ointment and other red flags when/if they exist. He will also say if the storm has a potential to outperform.

    I know that all mets have access to the same information. It all comes down to how thorough they are, how complete they look at the data, and their interpretation of all of that information. Thorough information/interpretation in = Accurate forecast out. 1-2 points of information and sloppiness in = Garbage out.

    Point made.

    Bring it!!

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  19. I wonder how many of the people who piss and moan about weather forecasts would support additional funding for the NWS/NOAA for more supercomputing power, and more engineers for better modeling software. Probably zero.

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  20. Snow is coming down west of the Metro, and it looks like it’s snowing powdered sugar out there.

    I don’t know if I should be measuring it or setting a plate of French toast out for it!

    Either way...bring it!

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  21. Itd be nice if this nuisance snow turns into something worthy.
    That smidgen of gulf moisture getting induced on the bottom end might help.

    This needs to slowdown and have an axis near Lakeville

    Also...the other person that needs a supercomputershould look at wyoming's

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  22. As of 6 p.m. MSP airport has 1.2 inches and Chanhassen .8, so 'bring it' as the advisory said 'heavy snow' is possible so that we get those 4-6 inches people were throwing out there. Be safe as it's sure slippery out there. And, let is SNOW!

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  23. 5.3 MSP airport; 3.2 Chanhassen. It will be fun to see the totals come into CoCoRaHS across the state. It doesn't look like much out my window compared to what I was hoping for, but all/any chunk of snow is beautiful. Have a great Sunday cleaning it up, fellow snow-lovers.

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  24. Hellow sunshine...
    To bad ratio's were a little less.

    But it did cover the state quite well.
    I think that's where it overachieved

    I read this yesterday, seeing more moisture coming up from the gulf side of things....and now seeing this mornings surface analysis from this morning's available data, the system is really impresive now
    Detailed discussion...

    Radar returns are starting to increase across eastern Kansas into
    northern Missouri as a series of weak impulses move across the area.
    These waves are expected to lead to increasing saturation aloft and
    may see pockets of drizzle develop through the overnight.

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  25. Need proof reading classes...geezers

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  26. I have been looking at the end of the month for the last few days as the models have been showing an upper pattern that would be conducive for a storm to spin up. Ridging in the mid west and east with troughing over the west. Some models are starting to pick up on idea, lets see what happens.

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  27. Thoughts:
    Just to put a button on this weekend’s system I believe it was forecasted beautifully, there was no drama, no red flags.....I don’t follow much local TV mets but the NWS and social media experts(i.e. Novak) nailed it with 3-6”/4-6” ranges. MSP came in 5.3”.

    Now onto the “next” one(as @randyinchamplain alluded to this weekend serves up our next potential accumulating snow event.....all models show a system with snow effecting us, time will tell how much. NWS already has “snow likely” in their forecasts.

    Side note: If you recall from the previous thread I promised 3 snow events before the end of January...so this past weekend was one and this coming weekend will be two...so I’m off and will eat crow(I really had hopes when I made my claim the storm hitting Iowa/S. Wisconsin tonight would effect us too, close but no cigar)Also this won’t fall in my claim as “by the end of January”....but the first few days of February look quite interesting for snow as well.
    Enjoy what’s ahead my fellow snow hounds!

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    Replies
    1. I remember. I also remember being criticized for saying that December looked to be a dry month...until it wasn't, and that it was way too early to write off January.

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  28. End of month looks light on qpf but stretched out

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  29. This has been a strange Winter so far. I haven't checked the actual numbers, but it seems we're pretty close to normal for snowfall. However, arctic air simply has not yet materialized, and we're now coming out of what are typically the coldest days of the year. If we don't fall below zero the next two nights, I think we would go the entire month without a below zero reading, am I right?

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  30. NWS has become pretty pessimistic about any appreciable snow for the Twin Cities this upcoming weekend. It's still several days away, so I hope that changes.

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