Saturday, February 27, 2021

Return to Winter?

After a gorgeous, spring-like day, it seems that old man winter is going to throw another "snow event" at us late Saturday into Sunday. How do you see the storm shaping up?

73 comments:

  1. If by return to winter you mean possible 60F next Sunday!!! Bring it!

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  2. What’s going on with the radar in the metro? Is this system hitting a wall of dry air/evaporating? It feels like it’s been on the doorstep for hours now.

    C’mon in already!!!

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  3. I remember seeing 'dry slot' on one of Novak's maps and I just looked outside and ???? No snow? That new radar NWS is using shows a definite 'hole' of no precip where I roost. Yet NWS still has WWA in place with 2-5 inches for the metro. Things that make me go hmmmmmmmm.

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    1. Replying to myself: now I hear the precip hitting the windows........ "bring it."

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  4. It’s beautiful out there! Wish we can be under this band of snow all day. The heaviest of the snow set-up NW of the metro(in and around St. Cloud area). But still we all got ‘some’, enjoy what you got today and tomorrow because by the end of this week it will be just dirty parking lot piles of snow out there.

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  5. Those pop-up events are the best and it was fun to watch the short-term models handle this vs the longer term models.

    The same is happening for tonight when another 1-2 are expected. Fun to see these pop up to track them. Hard for people to say "we didn't get what they predicted - they are always wrong!" Now people can just say, "Well, thanks Minnesota weather - 45 one day with snow at night."

    Looking for 1-2 more major storms yet this winter. Bring it!!

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    1. The odds are against 7-8, but 1-2 are totally feasible in the grand scheme of things weather-related around here, even with 40s and 50s in the forecast the next week or two. What a weird winter it has been.

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  6. What a disappointing winter this has been. March is looking like it will be very subpar at best. Just watch, April will be cold. Go figure.

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  7. 60s in NoDak. How do we get in on that action?

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  8. Hey snowlovers......don’t put away your shovels and snowblowers just yet....on the other side of this warm spell of 40’s/50’s we could get into some “interesting” winter weather it will be plenty cold enough for snow late next week! After all it’s still winter folks.

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    1. I'm with you. One local meteorologist calls this 'Fool's Spring'..... we are in MN, after all. Keep us posted if you see something white after we get through this amazingly warm week.

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    2. Your snowstorm appears at best a long shot.

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  9. It looks like I may have been off only by a couple of days with my bold predicion back in early February.

    http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2021/01/tracking-weekend-storm-again.html?showComment=1612801475017#c8056468779444539198

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    1. That's amazing, Mark. The chance for 70 comes a week prior to St Pat's this year. Yes, your prediction seems to be holding true.

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  10. Place your bets! NWS is predicting 68 for Tuesday. What will the high really be?

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    1. Easily into the 60’s....I say 65....Sunday and Monday could top 60 as well.

      @Mark...great foresight.....can you give me tonight’s lotto numbers, please and thank you!

      Snow potential still there after the warmth gets knocked down.

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  11. Looks like we'll set a record today, but just barely. Done in once again by clouds! :\

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  12. Yup, record set for highest warm temp yesterday since the late 1870's.... and if this rain could have been a tournament-type March snowstorm.... if only, if only. Times have changed.

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    1. Isn’t nice to have a spring this year? Birds were chirping, a gentle spring rain.

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    2. It's nice but strange. Now I see a tornado watch for southeast MN scrolling on the t.v. It seems early for that.

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  13. SE Twin Cities are in the SLGT risk for severe weather today.

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    1. Yeah, tornado watch now. I wonder how that stacks up in record books, having a tornado watch on March 10th. Hope nothing happens/folks are able to stay safe.

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  14. Tornado WARNINGS now E and NE of Mankato. Wild!

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  15. I don't have all of the weather knowledge of some, but I am getting more and more excited for upcoming snowstorm chances for Monday and even beyond that. I am doing my "bring all of the dynamics to give us a major snowstorm" dance!!!

    Bring it!!!

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  16. I am afraid your 'dynamics' will most likely bring us more tornado warnings than snowstorms going forward, unfortunately.
    I think we have turned the page on winter.

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  17. What winter? It's been a big disappointment at best.

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  18. @PWL what are you talking about for Monday?, nothing really to get excited about if any snow/precip makes it to the metro it will be during the daylight hours of Monday as the band is weakening and falling apart and sun angle, so mainly wet roads and cold surface(cars/grass) accumulation and thats if the dry air doesnt beat it down and not make it like all models are showing(except the GFS outlier). And whats this "beyond" you speak of? all models show nothing and theres simply a lack of cold air around to even give us a major snowstorm.

    Like the earlier poster mentioned, turn the page on this dud of a winter. We were predicted cold and snowny winter with a La Nina and thats obviously not happening. Will be a struggle to see anymore accumalation snowfall and if thats the case we wont even hit our average snowfall of 54" this year and if you substract the early snowfalls in October/November this winter has really been a dud.

    Will be Spring next week, start lawn and garden prep and wish on a better year next winter.

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  19. Hold on there Mr. DT....some models are trending slightly north and slightly more qpf, for instance the NAM went from .5” to 2” for MSP and the GFS went from 2” to 4” for MSP....of course on the other hand both the EURO and the Canadian show virtually nothing to perhaps a trace for the metro. Before we say “nothing to be excited about” I say let’s have the models play out for today and that includes the short term models as well and let’s see what they say 12-24 hours from now. This looks to close for comfort and we could get surprised in the metro all hinges on that dry air and if that band sets up stronger then advertised. Close call!

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  20. I agree, bigdaddy! There have been many people on this blog that have indicated that they don't want to be in the bullseye a few days out because things always shift. Well....bring that noise now! And, the reality is that there are usually some shifts being that things are still 24-48 hours out.

    In this case I think the dry air will knock down potential of anything big, but with the amount of moisture surging out of the gulf and with how slow the system is moving, it could get very interesting.

    Bring it!!!!

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  21. Looks like most models and forecasts(including Novak) are settling with 2-4” for the immediate metro. Nothing major but nonetheless it’s snow, remember any snow for snowlovers is welcome. Plus this could be it(the last snow of the season) so enjoy whatever you get.

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  22. Interesting.....12Z Euro bringing heavier snow further north...has 6”+ in south metro with 4-5” totals in immediate metro...still a changeable situation...let’s see what this evening’s models say. Radar will be fun to track hopefully.

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  23. Dancing. Surprise me, baby! Dancing!

    Bring it!!!

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  24. Some of this evenings model runs bringing in a tick more of snow for the immediate metro....most notably the 00z NAM dropping 5-6” and the 18z EURO anywhere from 5-8”....some other models mostly 1-4”.....time will tell, see what happens tomorrow. Good night all.

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  25. Looks like NWS is predicting 3-6" Twin Cities metro with their WWA. Nice!

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    1. I always look at NOAA.gov a bazillion times a day. I also check out time and date which is totally off kilter a lot; I check out NwS Chanhassen's twitter feed and I ALwAYS look to Novak on FB for his forecasts after discovering him (via this site) many, many years ago. But for the post above, I sent to noaa.gov and punched in my zip code. Sorry to have left it out, as they update and change numbers constantly.

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  26. Too much piddling around here in Plymouth. Let's go. Bring it!!!

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    1. Agreed. Same in St Louis Park..... noaa is sticking by its 3-6" by morning for my zip code. Somebody better start dancing big time, though it's finally starting to stick.

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    2. Oh, yeah, if it keeps up, now, we will have a nice pile of snow. Snow globe out there. Love it. Stay safe everyone road-wise........

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  27. The snowfall today is beautiful! I wish we had had more and frequent snowfalls/snowstorms throughout the winter. Hopefully we will next season. It looks like today's snow is going to be this winter's last gasp. Be safe and enjoy the snow, everybody!

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  28. Solid 4" in Golden Valley. Beautiful and calm out right now. If this is the way winter ends this year I'm fine with that. I measured 52" in my backyard this winter which is right about average, not a blockbuster winter season by any means but we have had some pathetic winters in the past, even since I moved here 25 years ago, so I'll take it.

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  29. 2.9 inches MSP airport and 4.1 Chanhassen per the noaa site. Thanks for your snow measurement out in GV and winter totals, bigdaddy. I'll be watching more totals coming in via the CoCoRaHS website today.

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  30. "It looks like today's snow is going to be this winter's last gasp"

    --

    Famous last words.

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  31. I’ve come to realize that wet snow is the best type of snow....not only is it the best to make snowballs and snowman but it just makes a beautiful scenery, last night while you were all sleeping we had a several hours burst of snowfall at varying intensity probably only producing a solid inch but all the trees are caked in white, it’s just so scenic If this is officially the last snow(I know famous last words) it’s a pretty way to go out!

    Side note: early next week a nice deep storm with a perfect track through Iowa, typically in March would deliver snow on its northwest side...will be all rain simply just too warm.

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  32. Interesting 'fun' fact: Todd Nelson writes on the Strib weather blog: "...according to Climate Central, there's less extreme cold than there used to be back in the 1970s. In fact, we've seen a +12.1F average increase in the lowest temperature record in the Twin Cities." That would explain the rain, rain, rain forecast for next week and a lack of 'tournament blizzards' around here in the metro. Not saying it won't snow, but wouldn't it be lovely if all that rain could have been March snow?

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  33. I think we've discussed it numerous times, but those extremely cold 70s winters were anomalous. I'm not saying we aren't warming; of course we are. But why did he pick that decade?

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    1. Well, I was born here even way before that, and to me winters even in the 50's and 60's were colder than now, they lasted longer than now, they had more snow v rain than now. Maybe they picked the 70's because it's closer to many folks here/their 'recent' memories. I will hunt for sourcing saying even the growing season is longer now than when I was a kid. Could be the decade that showed the most growth. IDK. I will have to check more. Thanks for a good question that deserves research. Enjoy the sunshine this weekend and what is left of snow........

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  34. Here is a quick quote from EPA; I will keep hunting: "Changing the climate is likely to have both positive and negative effects on agriculture in Minnesota. Warmer weather has extended the growing season by about 15 days since the beginning of the 20th century. ... In some rural parts of Minnesota, ozone levels are high enough to reduce yields of soybeans and winter wheat."

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  35. There continues to be a big misunderstanding about the Twin Cities and snow.
    The Twin Cities metro area has not, is not, and will not ever be a particularly snowy place given the relative still cold (even though warming) winters. The average winter snowfall is (depending if you only use the 30-year rolling average like NOAA does, or the full series since record began in 1885)between 45 and 55 inches more or less.
    A lot or 'warmer' places get almost twice as much. So, in essence it is like the Twin Cities 'waste' a lot of cold air.
    The idea that winters were snowier back then is not correct, otherwise the averages would convey that. They do not.
    What people remember is that the snow stayed on the ground for longer because yes, winters were a few degrees colder, but the actual amount of snoe that fell from the sky was more or less the same for an average winter.
    The Twin Cities metro is just not a particular snowy place as you would expect given its average winter temperature.

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    1. I hear you, but when we have 1/2 to 1+ inches of rain forecast this week...... 'back in the day' it would probably have been a nice pile of snow v. rain. I'm not saying we should be a top 'snowy place' but it seems to rain and ice way more often than in my ancient memories when I remember March snowfalls. Seven of 20 top snowfalls for the metro from long ago to present were March snowfalls. MPR reports January now the snowiest month; March was once the title-holder. And yes, I am sure folks in plenty of places get a lot more snow than we do. I had a neighbor once from upstate NY, and he would stand in a foot of snow and call it a nothing burger here. It has just been another one of those odd winters, and some of us are still wishing for some big piles of snow. I agree with all you say, anonymous.

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  36. Hey Twin Cities snowlovers.....some good news if your not ready for the white stuff to disappear for at least 6 months....I’m eyeing not one but two snowfall potentials close to home if not home....next Wednesday(3/24)and next weekend(3/27-28). Time will tell, enjoy your weekend!

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  37. The 00Z Euro may or may not have dropped over a foot of snow next weekend in the metro....just saying! A person can dream no? Seriously though thats what it shows at this moment, but its next weekend and thats a long ways off in fantasy model land. Just something to keep an eye on is all. Lets see what happens.

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    1. Unfortunately, the answer is Rain, Rain and more Rain. No Snow for the Metro...

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  38. As usual, a gorgeous, powerful storm system sets a perfect track from the Texas panhandle to SW Wisconsin and it's going to be too warm to snow.

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    1. Very true. There is plenty of very cold air in central and northern Canada, but we aren't able to tap it...as usual.

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    2. NOT as usual. We got five inches last week. Mankato got a foot. There were over 150 crashes statewide.

      Snow Amnesia and Derangement Syndrome (SADS) - inability to remember that it snowed in Minnesota at some point in the past.

      Twin Cities got about the average amount of snowfall this winter.

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    3. Wow.

      I wasn't aware that someone could misunderstand nearly every word I wrote...but here we are. Next time, dial down the indignation and try to comprehend what was written.

      In this case, I was VERY specific about the exact type of storm system I was referring to. Perhaps you're new to Minnesota, but we've always been told that the classic setup for monster storms in the metro area is a track from Texas to SW Wisconsin (think LaCrosse). (The Great Halloween Blizzard was an even more South to North track, going from near Houston almost straight north into Wisconsin.) This type of perfect track, as I alluded to in my original comment, is uncommon--maybe a couple times each snow season--so it is sad to see our chance at a major snowstorm get washed out by rain.

      Feel free to enlighten me as to the number of 'perfect track' storms we have had this snow season and how much snow we've gotten from them.

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    4. Disco, this is nothing more then popcorn entertainment site for snow. I mean there’s a joker here that dances for snow, which is quite literally true. He also discussed peeing his diaper when it snows.

      It’s peer enjoyment for me. No one remembers yesterday and always falls back on it never snows here arguments. Typical modern day doom scrollers. There is also very little weather knowledge here.

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    5. This site is for snow lovers to discuss possible snowstorms and the forecasting of them. There are plenty of people here who have knowledge about Minnesota/Metro Area climatology to keep the discussion interesting. It is not a science blog.

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  39. I mean...look at this storm system. It's literally in the perfect spot with perfect moisture for a massive pile of snow in the metro. It's beautiful.

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    1. Agreed. The normal low is usually 27, not last night's 44 (per noaa)... could have/would have been an awesome March snowstorm. And we almost got through the entire winter blog season without the stuff above. Glad we provide 'comic relief' to some folks.

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  40. 2.6 inches liquid so far this month MSP airport; 2.1 Chanhassen per noaa.......

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  41. NOAA seasonal outlook has us above normal temps the next three months. I call it a wrap for significant snow events and wish you all well until next year here on the blog. Cheers snow-loving weather friends.

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  42. 2'by end of April....

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  43. Well, I don't have any evidence of this in terms of models runs, etc. (although the long-term GFS shows some snow close to home), but I have been around long enough to know that we are NOT done with snow accumulation for this year. I am not saying a huge storm, but we are not with snow accumulation.

    Bring it!

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    1. Sometimes PWL you just need to throw in the towel and call it done. This subpar winter has been over for some time, March it barely snowed and now April starts with a early spring(with temperatures more like June). Wave the white flag and we'll see you all in six months.

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    2. Dry tongue, as I was reminded so ineloquently above, Mankato got a foot of snow just two weeks ago.

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  44. From Mr Douglas at the Strib today about this winter/snow: "...MSP picked up 48.7". That's 3" less than last winter and 5" less than average."

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