Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
As we near December, and with temps closer to what one would expect for the season, the hunt for significant snow is on. When might that happen?
Novak hinted at something brewing later this coming weekend (12/3), but what does everyone else think?
Welcome back, everyone!! This is just the BEST time of the year - the anticipation is killing me! Novak seems like a little bit of an outlier here, but he is my "go to" as I know he is for others on here. The models are now showing this as well as the forecast discussion for NWS. I am not seeing it showing up many places - my go to sites - but Novak is still saying to watch closely. And, rest assured, I am watching!!
Surprise 1/2 inch today!
Meteorological winter is December- February. Based on the current and predicted pattern through the remainder of this year, I think it’s safe to write off this December as a non-winter month. Essentially one-third of this winter is over? If you’re happy about that, you can thank El Niño.
Agreed @Joe. Yawn.
You guys are right. It looks like highs in the 40s (occasional 50) and dry through the rest of the month. Very very disappointing for us winter fans…
No kidding. Looking this morning at NOAA's forecast for the metro today/tomorrow, they predict a half an inch to an inch of rain. If that were snow, it would be wonderful. What a wreck of a winter. And I have a relative with a snow-dependent business. This 'winter' is killing him and all those he serves who enjoy winter.
So much rain. What a great snowstorm this could have been.
Yup. Most areas of the metro got at least a half inch of rain. Bummer.
I was thinking the same thing...would have been a white Christmas. Anyone with access to computer models seeing anything for snow towards the end of the month? I know that is way out there yet-
@Big Snow Fan, right now the GFS is showing a very rainy Christmas Eve and Christmas day with highs in the 40s. What else is new…right??
Thanks for the update. What a 'winter'........
If you hate (or like) this absence of winter, get used to it. Long range forecasts are calling for much above normal temperatures through at least mid-January. Is this going to truly be a year without winter?
Computer models keep printing out an inch+ of rain over Christmas..... amazing all the snow opportunities we miss because of these temps. You could be right, Joe........... and yet it's hard to imagine a 'year without winter' until we see how January plays out all the way to the end of that month. I miss winter, and I especially miss the snow. I know a lot of you do, too.
So when do we start to talk about how pathetic this winter is against prior winters at this time. Food for thought this October will have more snow then November AND December COMBINED!
That would be a decent plan. NWS has already published on FB a historical chart of 'brown' Christmas history, but to get all this rain that never comes as snow because it's so warm outside? If we truly get up to 2" of rain by next Wednesday, it could have been another Halloween Blizzard setup if temps were 'normal.' If you know of a link, 'Winter AWOL' that has pure winter rain comparisons, that would be a start. I know I was frustrated even last winter that we couldn't break the all-time metro snow record because there were several rain events v snow. What a sad 'winter.'
Is the 06z gfs model today something to get excited about?
@Derek, I wouldn’t get too excited about the 06z run. There just isn’t any real pool of cold air to tap. Even after our lovely Christmas rainstorm passes (sarcasm added!) they are still predicting highs in the mid upper 30s.
I do love a huge snowstorm every now and then but I'll admit I love this warmer weather. Roads are safer to drive on. Sidewalks are safer to walk on. Heating Bill is much cheaper. And just being outside without the requirement of a thick winter coat, gloves, and hat are nice. The plusses outweigh the negatives imho.
I respect your position and I understand it. The only thing I don’t like about winter is driving on bad roads, especially when there are nutjobs out there driving like it’s dry pavement on a sunny August day. Otherwise, I love winter! I love the snow, ice skating, skiing, etc. It’s a beautiful time of year up here (except for this season!). Perhaps winter will eventually make an appearance (?) so this season there will be a little something for everyone?
@WeatherGeek, I agree about last year. We picked up around 100 inches in the west burbs last season. That was awesome, but I recall 2-3 times when rain played a significant role in suppressing snow totals. I think last season would have been absolutely epic if it had been 3-5 degrees colder. Too many days in the 30’s instead of the 20’s.
Every day I check the forecast and come to the same conclusion … there is no end in sight to this nightmare “winter” (if you like winter), including the big pending Christmas rainstorm, which just adds salt to the wound. Can we just fast forward ahead, please? Is it May yet?
Well, there are some impressive rainfall totals out there so far with a lot of rain to go. Here we are, the snow crew, lamenting this abnormal weather. I know it has been 'like this' in past winters, but not THIS much 'like this.' Happy / Safe Holidays to you all. Let's pray for SNOW in 2024!!
When the switch going to flip? Hoping it gets cold soon. Just over an inch of rain in South Maplewood.
From Paul Douglas in the 12/28 Strib: "For the record, last year at this time we had already picked up 33 inches of snow at MSP. So far this month only 1.3 inches have fallen - a 'whopping' 4.5 inches so far this 'winter.' "
According to the long range forecast, I wouldn’t hold my breath for anything beyond a dusting of snow through at least the first week of January. El Niño shows no signs of loosening it’s hot dry grip on us.
I should have said hot snowless grip.
El Niño is forecasted to remain quite strong through March. If this continues (there is no indication it won’t) in another month it will be time to start discussing whether this “winter” is not only the hottest winter on record in the Twin Cities, but also the least snowiest. Currently the warmest Twin Cities “winter” is 1877-1878. The least snowiest Twin Cities “winter” is 1930-1931 with 14.2 inches. I place the word “winter” in quotes, because winter does not describe what we are experiencing. It’s perpetually October/November.
There could be something to finally track as we close out the first week of January and head into the 2nd week, looks more active precipitation wise question will be does it line up to hit us here in southern Minnesota, time will tell! Let’s hope the New Years ends our weather boredom!
I agree, Bigdaddy. Time and Date keeps pushing out copious inches of snow the 8th-10th and doesn't seem to be backing down........
Well 'snap'......now the big snow chances have evaporated for the second week of January. I hope the pendulum swings back this way. Thanks Dave/Bill for bringing the site back up, too. It is much appreciated. Happy 2024 everyone. Our snow drought continues, sadly.
I hope the snows find us here in the Twin Cities sooner than later, but I think the southern storm jet definitely favors Iowa and southern Wisconsin over us.
It hasn’t found us for the months of November and December and all this pattern flip will do for us is bring temperatures closer to normal and at times colder then not but as far as snow goes it will be hard pressed, little small stuff here n there like the other day. You all best start keeping track of the LEAST snow on record for MSP!
Bring it! I’m started to get pretty excited about late in the weekend and early next week! Bring it!!!
Did you move to Iowa or Illinois?
Someone needs to check in on Novak, on Twitter(X) he is out there talking about “great setups” and “significant snow” and yet not one major weather model from tonight’s 00z suite run depicts getting more then an 1” of snow at MSP and that’s from the weekend into next Wed.
For reference:This is the first time all snow season that I'm really interested in a set-up. This weekend & next week should feature some significant SNOW over much of MN/WI. If we don't get hit in the next 10 days, I give up.
Discouraging excerpt from this morning’s NWS discussion:“For early next week, we`re still on track for seeing a significant winter storm to impact the central CONUS, though the track of thesurface low from Texas to Lake Huron looks to be too far east to provide any meaningful snow to the MPX area (looks like a KC, Quad Cities, Milwaukee, and central/northern lower Michiganproblem). After this we`ll remain within a synoptic scale trough, likely to send several weak waves our direction, but anysnow we accumulate through the course of next week will be of the nickle and dime variety (so no big systems).”
14.2”! Remember that number.
What’s the significance of 14..2”?
It’s the Twin Cities official lowest seasonal snowfall amount (winter 1930-31)
Thanks for that number, Snow drought. Looks like we may squeeze out 1.5 in parts of the metro the next few days? 14.2 is super low for a seasonal snowfall amount. Good sleuthing! Thanks again.
Not sure what Novak is so excited about. What great set-up? Each of the snow chances this week (including last night’s dusting) are only supposed to give the metro a dusting at most. That 14.2 record continues to be safe for the foreseeable future.
Novak must’ve gotten the Twin Cities confused with Chicago.
I agree, Lee/Joe. My favorite Novak quote from his FB posts: four days ago, on January 3, 2024, he posted: "If we don't get hit in the next 10 days, I give up." Now, 'giving up' could refer to the types of nice snow events we love/wish/hope for/remember. This year it's just not panning out. And Mr Douglas in his Strib blog today reports: "Dr. Mark Seely says 8 of the last 10 Decembers were milder than average. Since 1990 December statewide temperatures have warmed a whopping 6.7F. He attributes 70% of this winter's warmth to climate change, 30% to a natural phenomena, El Nino." Onward. Hoping for snow.......
The reason for optimism is the over-all set-up between now & mid-JAN. There is a massive dome of bitter COLD Arctic air that penetrates much of western North America. Meanwhile, the eastern half of N.A. features a strong ridge of warmth. In between, you have MN/WI which could be considered a 'battle zone'. This is a fantastic set-up for Winter Storm development.Unfortunately, at this stage of the game, it is nearly impossible to give specifics and/or pinpoint details on how each storm will evolve. But, if you're a betting man, you would lean towards several significant snow opportunities over much of the Midwest including MN/WI.
Oh, Mr Novak, it is great to see you over here!!! And the cold is definitely a good sign for we who love snow and my brother who has a snow-dependent business in the 'winter'........ I'll keep tabs on your assessments and predictions over on FB and thanks again for visiting here.
Nice to hear from you, Novak. I understand what you’re saying, but it appears the metro is just too far north to reap any snowy benefits from any of these storms. I hope I am ultimately proven wrong. It has been a very disappointing season so far. As for the storm tomorrow and the one at the end of this week, for the metro it appears nothing but a couple more dustings to maybe an inch. The watches and warnings are south, west and east of us for tomorrow. No surprise there. 14.2 remains safe.
Unfortunately for snow lovers, El Nino = storm tracks that favor the southern half of the U.S. in the winter.
Now NWS just pushed out maybe 2.5 inches for the metro tomorrow/ tomorrow night? Could it really happen? Maybe we will still pass the 14.2 inch record, Lee!
I agree, Mr. Novak. That’s why I said what I did. El Niño is not a friend of MN winter lovers. That’s just the way it is. Again, thanks for chiming in. I know many of us here always appreciate your input.
I am confused. One of the comments by "Novak Weather" is in red with a formal blog emblem next to it. The other comment by "Novak Weather" is written in black with no emblem by it. Are both of these comments from Novak??
PLM, they are both me. Just signed in from two different laptops.
Let me just say it. What a horrible Winter it has been. Just Cosmetic dustings and everything going south this week is no exception either. Pretty sad when Halloween was your largest snowfall of the season!
I agree. Novak on FB says 'you can't make this stuff up'.... snow all around us, big storms south and east of us... and we sit in our 'dry slot.' Un-believable. The frigid cold that is coming makes it feel even 'colder in my mind' when there isn't a lot of snow on the ground. Bummer. Lee/14.2/it's on my mind. Since July 1 we have had 6.1 inches at MSP. And since Dec 1 only 2.9 inches of white stuff. We are -15.8 off average snow values for this time of year. Last year we had 48.3 inches already. What a contrast! (source/NOAA/MSP/climate summaries)
@WeatherGeek. I agree with your comments and stand by my remarks from a couple days ago that watches/warnings were west, south and east of us….14.2 remains safe. I also believe 14.2 will still be safe after all the storms pass this week.
Sorry, that is my comment (not anonymous) above.
What. A. Horrible. Patter. For anyone to suggest a great setup merely because it got colder is incorrect. The southern stream provides the moisture but the northern stream with its cold air merely makes us to dry and shoves everything southeast of the metro
Oh, Novak's site on FB is on FIRE this afternoon with folks arguing about the upcoming forecast/snow totals through Sunday. As PWL says: "BRING IT!" Even two inches makes me happy, ha ha.
I just looked at his FB page and I'm with WeatherGeek. Even if we get half of the snowfall shown in that GFS map, I'll be happy.
For once, we are not in the "this is shifting away from us" position. We are in the "this thing is shifting closer to us". I am doing the shifty dance. Shifty dance, baby! BRING IT!!!
What is the percentages on your dancing helping bring it? I’m going with 40%.
Normally I don't get excited about a winter storm that has it's surface low moving near ORD. However this storm is showing the potential to be very strong as the surface low may be sub 975mb as it gets near ORD. Looking at the short term models come in for 01/11 0z, the storm takes on a very strong negative tilt sometime mid morning on Friday. That could get us a advisory type event (dare I say warning?) given how strong this gets. If it goes strongly negative tilted say 6 hours early than currently modeled, that would likely pull the surface low further yet to the NW. Very interesting indeed.
New thread started (this is Bill)