Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Monday, March 18, 2024
Don't Look Now But....
Is it ("it" being winter) better late than never? It's looking like snow fortunes are about to change. Are you happy about this or do you just want to get on with spring? What say you?
Better late than never indeed! Its been a bummer of a winter but I hope we can eke out something interesting before spring fully takes hold. But I am guessing I am in the minority!
A lot of 'we who love snow' are on this site, so count me in. That 14.2" we were trying to 'stay under' was a thorn (or icicle?) in the side.... and the more we can creep beyond it, the better, I say. I know it's been a bizarre 'winter' (I'm calling this the year with no winter for myself)..... but as PWL always says, "Bring it." Nobody believes it's going to snow..... so let it snow, snow, and snow. Thanks for starting the new thread, Bill. Much appreciated.
I need to put 'nobody' in quotes. So far, of the folks I've told that 'snow is coming'... they have all said, 'No way.' Nonbelievers abound. Let it SNOW!
From Novak FB six hours ago: "Take advantage of tomorrow because it goes downhill after that. Mother Nature may try to fit in 3 months worth of winter into these last two weeks of March. Better late than never? Not sure." Wooo hooooooo. It's going to be interesting after today!
On 3/17 he was doing the 'orange' dance on the Jan. blog because he says orange on the radar is a good color for snow. Hopefully he will dance over to this new thread soon. The anticipation of the snow......... just 'kills' doesn't it? Here is hoping.........
Chalk this up to “not going to happen” department, but my weather channel app has 15-27” in metro for Sunday thru Tuesday winter storm. It says “ watching a winter storm”
I'm only going to say ditto on BRING IT! (then melt it quick) because my lawn, garden, and trees could use the moisture...and the neighbor kids who shovel my snow could use the $$$...they've only shoveled twice so far. MM ;-)
I am rooting for the snow. Like everyone else, I have been searching for snow since last November. Better very late than never, I guess. Speaking of which, I was just watching WCCO news. For what it’s worth, Chris Shaffer is leaning towards more rain than snow next week. Regardless, I can hardly stand watching him or the others on that station. They were acting like we have been pummeled with endless snowstorms and arctic cold over the last 4 months, and that if we can just somehow soldier through a couple more weeks we can emerge into spring from this phantom brutal winter. What??? Smh… Let it snow!
Sorry snow lovers but after a appetizer of a few inches Thursday, late Sat/Sun storm had the capacity of being a epic one but now all models bring in warmer air sometime late Sunday/early Monday switching over snow to a soaking rain, could we get to a warning level snows of 6” on Sunday? Sure!, but with no switch over it could have snowed into Tuesday morning making it epic, now there maybe no sign of snow come Tuesday due to the rain. Yet another example of how El Niño continues to influence this winter.
Sounds not so good. If temps go low at night, will there be a bunch of ice, then? Thanks for the update. We need water...... one can still hope some of it is snow. Keep the updates coming and much appreciated.
MPR's updated Updraft blog is now saying the weekend storm is going to bring heavy snow from about Brainerd northward, and less than 1 inch for the Twin Cities. I love snow, but in a weird kind of way it's been a relief to not have to be concerned about being disappointed (as often occurs, except for last season for the most part) by snowstorms this season. It's late March. I say let's just make it official and write off this terrible and pathetic excuse of a winter, move into spring and look forward to La Nina (fingers crossed) giving us winter next season.
Exactly! This has been a pathetic and lame winter, and yet another storm going to the warm side with rain. I’m not so sure about Thursdays system either a lot of dry air being spoken about and two distinct areas of heavier snow, wouldn’t be surprised if it stays north and south of the metro and we’re just left with something cosmetic like most of this year.
Novak's latest take on it (on FB) which echoes what you say above re: warmth cutting into the potential snow: "Look at this ACTIVE & COLD late March forecast. Our first shot of SNOW arrives late tomorrow evening. Then, an even more impressive storm system hammers the region on Sunday & into early next week. Get ready for a slush-fest by Monday."
Have to admit reading this afternoons CWA discussion is depressing, like some of said the Sunday into probably Tuesday could have been an epic snowstorm now it’s just going to be a slush fest with heavy snow going to heavy rain, I can’t believe we can’t have just one significant snowfall this year(my definition of significant is like double digits with no rain)
It reminds me of growing up back East. I can't tell you have many times a big storm came up the coast and started as a beautiful heavy snowfall with a few inches before the warm air came in off the ocean and turned the snow to a cold, heavy, wind-driven, soaking rain. Very depressing!! It's even more depressing to experience that here in Minnesota.
Paul Douglas in today's online Strib says "4-8" in the metro for the Sunday/Monday event saying the storm 'probably tracks just west of MSP, pulling milder air into the storm's circulation' as some of you wrote above and so............ let's see what comes..........
Be aware Sunday system trending slower and bit further east, meaning less rain and a snowier forecast. I would expect an increase in the snowfall forecast and probably a Winter Storm Watch as early as tomorrow morning when the advisory for tonight expires(I’m sure the NWS don’t want to confuse the two so they’ll wait till the advisory expires)
Just wanted to chime in with my two cents. I agree with BigDaddy. Here are excerpts from today's 3 PM NWS forecast discussion. Notice how the numbers for along and south of I-94 have increased for tonight. Notice also the comments regarding the weekend storm.
"KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow is expected tonight. The heaviest area has shifted south a bit and amounts have increased with some 5 or 6 inch totals likely along and just south of I-94. The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to a few more counties south/west.
- Confidence is increasing quickly for a significant winter storm late Saturday night into Monday night or Tuesday.
- Biggest change today with the weekend system has been a shift of the track a bit to the east, with the rain/snow line also shifting east. Snowfall totals over a foot appear likely across a large portion of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin."
Tonight’s snow looks like a miss for the metro in regards to what was predicted(I’m talking MSP and core). Looking at radar and current observations it’s setting up just north of the core.
Due to the nature of small scale storms such as this it will always be extremely difficult to pin point exactly where the heaviest snow band will setup.
I see that Novak is on the fence. He has the potential for heavy rain Monday and also a bust potential for the metro to the east. At the same time, the GFS is up to almost 2 feet of snow for most of the metro. This will be a fun one to watch. I'm ready for Spring, sorry PWL.
This storm is so dynamic it is incredible. Huge amounts of snow somewhere in Minnesota, heavy snow followed by heavy rain in some parts of Minnesota, and just heavy rain close to home.
This. Is. Fun.
I am doing the “all have snow over Minnesota dance” baby!!
It's great to see finally see snow. Where have you been the past 5 months? The NWS this morning is sounding less confident about a big snowstorm for the metro starting Sunday. All week they have been calling for heavy snow Sunday. Now, it's no longer looking that way. Western MN is looking like the jackpot for this next system.
NWS comment this morning: "As of now, much of southern MN could see a rain/snow mix for a few hours on Sunday before changing back to all snow Sunday night. Blowing snow is also possible especially on Sunday into Monday where wind gusts could exceed 30 mph. Temperatures will warm across eastern MN and western WI with highs in the mid 30s on Sunday then upper 30s to mid 40s by Monday."
I'm so confused. I believe you, Lee, but then why do they (NOAA) have 8-16" snow totals in the latest forecasts for the metro even before Monday's precip gets totalled in as a potential rain/snow mix? Not easy work, being a weather person, that's for sure. I agree with you that it is great to see this snow after my 'year with no winter.' I'm going to enjoy today's slush before the next big event arrives. Thanks again for the discussion update. Lucky western MN.
WeatherGeek, I think the confusion comes from the fact forecasters are on the fence about the track of the storm (though it appears they are now leaning much more towards a snow to mix to rain scenario) combined with the need to issue an official forecast. Another factor is timing when the transition from snow to mix to rain occurs. All this week there had been no talk of mix or rain until Monday. Now there is talk of mix on Sunday and outright cold rain (with highs around 40) on Monday. At this time signs are strongly pointing to the metro picking up a few inches of snow on Sunday (Sunday night now?) before it gets washed away by heavy rain on Monday. The metro will just miss what would be an epic snowstorm. Stay tuned!
Gut feeling Euro going to be wrong on this one, both Euro and the Candian model have had the system progressing too slowly imo. Hence wrapping in more warm air, I like the GFS solution more as it makes more sense. Rarely do we have storms track slowly with such a powerful jetstream. Not to mention I don't believe the jetstream will intensify as quickly as some models are predicting.
I don’t know. I hope you’re right, but the latest GFS (12z) is showing heavy rain for the eastern half of MN on north to just south of Duluth by Monday afternoon.
Storm isn't over the US yet, so the models will improve as it hits land. There is warm air on the front side and wherever that lands will tell the story. I would guess that things tighten up Saturday night.
Shucks. Winter Storm Warning north of the metro; I feel like it's Christmas again, when it rained, rained, rained. The rain will definitely affect what 'could have been' in the metro, and I will be grateful for every flake we can get before it's slush/pure rain. NWS just posted their best predictions as of right now on their FB site, including charts, the warned v watch areas, etc. PWL please keep dancing.... but have an umbrella handy for rain. :+( "The year of no winter."
PWL dancing no longer is working otherwise it would have kept the changeover to rain from occurring, I believe he needs to find something else to do in its place, singing perhaps? Praying?
It’s very disappointing how often the metro is on the rain/snow line, often falling on the rain side. This system will be no exception. A messy sloppy storm for the metro. I guess any moisture we get is welcome at this point. Also, one more example as to why we should not trust the GFS. King Euro has had it raining on the metro for several days now. King Euro wins again. What a horribly crappy excuse of a winter this has been.
This forecast/scenario should not surprise any of us. The writing has been on the wall for the last several days. Besides, it’s almost April anyway. Personally, I wrote off this “winter” a long time ago. I’m looking forward to next season, which has to be much better for us winter fans…right??? Right???
Back in April 2018, which I well remember because the fam and I flew in/out in this storm, it snowed 15.8 inches the 13-16th at MSP airport. I usually don't write April off, either. But yes, this winter has not been a winter, that is very true. And yes again, I'm also looking forward to next season...... you are so right that it HAS to be 'much better' for we who love snow. I was just hopeful for this week because the models just didn't give up... ha until within the last day or so.
I'm now embarrassed I even asked for this thread to be started. Ufduh. However, those north of the metro....... y'all be sure to take delight in what will unfold, right? Onward, snow lovers.
It is funny to see Mr Novak's latest FB post: "Not sure why so many people are bent out of shape. 5.0" to 10.0" of heavy, wet snow is still a damn big deal." It's fun reading the comments, too.
Hang in the WeatherGeek!! The HRRR is coming in and showing closer to 10-12 inches for MSP. We don’t have to be in the heaviest for this to be a big storm. 6-12 is huge!!
I’m not going to stop dancing! It’s good for my legs, arms, heart, and toes.
WeatherGeek, I think everyone understands the metro should pick up a few inches of snow. I believe the issue most people on here are having about this storm is that it is going to change over to rain. Speaking for myself, there’s nothing worse than having a nice snowfall turn to rain.
This week has been fun to follow the models and opinions. Having this thread was part of that fun. We could get a big snowfall even if it switches to rain. Bring it!
Damn!! The latest 00Z HRRR model with 15” for MSP. It has MSP as the biggest jackpot snowfall. Plus that’s a 48hr model which brings it to Monday night. Some are now saying there could be accumulating snow for Tuesday as well. Interesting times ahead….a 3+ day storm system!
Mr Novak posted this on FB 10 hours ago: "This storm smells. Something tells me that much of our region will experience a TUE snow too. Storm is trending south. Stay tuned. Much more info. to come tomorrow." So I keep checking for info today at his site.......
Mr Novak just published (on FB) a slight nudge of high snow totals closer to the north metro but mid/south metro still sit in a potential bust area due to warmth/rain, so all you rain gurus are correct...... "let it snow" (and rain)..... we need the precip! *He has most of the metro in a 5-8" band of white stuff.
HRRR 18Z run shows dynamic cooling playing a big role in potentially keeping MSP in snow until after 6 am. Wonder if that will actually happen, I'd say there is a decent chance and is more than possible with the southern shift.
NWS has us with pure rain starting at 3 a.m. and all the way till Tuesday. This snow is so pretty!!!!!! I hope what you see, Anonymous, comes to be true so that we get some more snow.
So far over 5 inches as of 8:30pm in Woodbury! 730-830 I picked up 1.7 inches of snow. Interesting trend with the HRRR model runs from 0Z yesterday to tonight's 0Z run. The southern trend continues as dry air is suppressing the storm from moving as far north.
Just shoveled the driveway for the second time, did not measure, however i believe I have taken about 5" off the driveway between shoveling twice. Wanted to try and to get as much snow off before I have to tackle concrete snow with the snow thrower tomorrow morning.
I'm not surprised that we have seen more snow than others were calling for on this thread. A storm delayed is often a stronger strom, it gets more time to organize and deepen on the lee side of the rockies.
Crazy. Heavy rain in Faribault and the NWS has flipped the southern metro to rain tonight. It is just entering the southern metro. Heck of a storm, impressive on radar.
The snow had turned to a light rain this morning here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area. About 15 minutes ago it suddenly switched to a beautiful moderate/heavy snow with large flakes (with no wind)! Absolutely beautiful! I don't know how long it will last, but I will enjoy it while I can. It is picture postcard gorgeous! Snow fans, see what we have been missing all winter?! Uugghh
Dynamic cooling will continue to play a role today but due to the temperature I doubt we will see it accumulate but should at least slow down the melting.
I was wondering about the extent of the dynamic cooling too. It probably won't last too long, but one can hope. The less rain the better. As someone on here said the other day, there is nothing worse than having a beautiful snowstorm turn to rain!
Wow - that rain/snow line is little bisecting the Twin Cities. That's good for us Plymouth residents. I know it will move, but the huge flakes this morning are just the best. Keep bringing the huge flakes.
Doing the huge flakes/dynamic cooling/keep the rain-snow line south of metro dance!
We must be right on the rain/snow line here in Plymouth/Maple Grove. This morning at 7AM we had a light rain, which then changed to heavy snow for about 35 minutes. After that there was no precipitation falling at all for approximately 20 minutes. The light rain then started to fall again, but five minutes ago it switched back to all snow.
I don’t recall a time when Novak and NWS are this far off in forecast. With regards to the rain turning back to snow by morning. Novak has 5-8+ inches with NWS only having 1-2”. The storm that keeps on giving I guess….we’ll see what happens! Let me tell you that was the worst snow to clean, heavy and wet, snowblower bogged down several times.
Holy Snow! No kidding, Bigdaddy. I just hopped over to FB while watching it pour here in SLP. Novak's depiction of tomorrow is so very different from what NWS is putting out. I asked Mr Novak about it, but I don't know if he will have time to respond. Maybe a lot of what he shows will melt down? What a spread. Sorry about the snowblower issues. I live near clinics and folks were out there all night long, literally, pushing snow/cleaning paths.
(This is Bill) - Bigdaddy, I had the exact same thought regarding the difference. In fact, for my old location in St. Paul, the NWS is calling for "less than an inch." Will be interesting to see what happens.
This is going to be very interesting between Novak, NWS and the tv outlets. I just watched Chris Schaffer on WCCO. He said it should snow during tomorrow morning’s rush hour, but he did not mention anything about accumulations. If Novak pulls this off, it will be an incredible victory for him! Let’s Go, Novak!
OK. Mr Novak responded to me on FB and said no doubt some will melt; I said well, over here on this site we are rooting for him. :+) And I thanked him for taking time to respond cuz I know he's very busy. He also says he's going live at 9 p.m. tonight to discuss this next system.
I watched Novak’s 9 PM video. I noticed the map he put out around 2 PM today for tomorrow’s snow showed 5-8+ inches of snow from Mankato north through the Twin Cities. During his 9 PM video he lowered those numbers to 2-6+ inches, which frankly on the low end puts him right there with the NWS and tv outlets that are predicting 1-2 inches. He explained why we could possibly get several inches, but by lowering his numbers on the low end to be more in line with what everyone else is predicting he clearly is not convinced we will get several inches in the Mankato to TC area. We will see what happens tomorrow.
Good morning, everyone! It’s fun to see it snowing again. You’re right, WeatherGeek. If temperatures had been 5 degrees colder this would have been an epic snowstorm for the metro. Today will feel more like a typical snowstorm. I’m in the northern burbs and the forecast has been increased by the national weather service to 3 to 5 inches today with temperatures falling through the 20s and winds gusting over 35 mph!
NWS has increased snow totals for my area (Plymouth/Maple Grove) from 1-2 inches (last night’s forecast) to 3-5 inches. It has been snowing here since a little after 6 AM. Looks like Novak was on to something and was ahead of this well beyond all other forecasters, including the NWS.
This page is the best. I feel the love & I'm blushing!
We need to keep in mind that the NWS is going through attrition just like any other government entity or business. They likely have a bunch of younger professionals that simply don't have the experience as some outside and/or private forecasters.
Quite frankly, I think most forecasters rely too much on model guidance and, more specifically, model QPF. That is a recipe for disaster because you tend to forget about simple weather logic & what makes sense. I know this because I've fallen into this same trap during my career. Model guidance can be our best friend yet our worst enemy.
As far as this morning's heavy snow event, there really isn't much of an excuse for the NWS & any other weather outlets for not tipping off the public about today's heavy snow potential. It was obvious a good 24 to 36+ hours ago that this was a real possibility. Now, these same forecasters are trying to cover their tracks when they could've simply told the public yesterday that this AM could be a shit show.
I hope everyone on this page has a great day. This impressive storm over the last 3 days certainly has put a bounce in my step. Kinda nice to have something exciting to talk about finally.
Thanks, Novak. I always listen to and compare many weather forecasting sources - NWS, TV stations, etc. You were the only one that mentioned the possibility of today being more than an inch or two of snow. I watched the late news last night and caught Ian Leonard on Channel 9 and Chris Shaffer on WCCO. Both of them parroted the NWS line of an inch or two this morning. There was no mention of the possibility of anything more significant. I am sure they will have their excuses ready on tonight's evening broadcast. I want to take this opportunity to tell you I appreciate your foresight, skill, and professionalism for not just blindly following the crowd. This is how you always are and I think that is why those of us on this blog are such strong supporters of yours. I also appreciate you taking the time to visit with "little 'ol us" here on the MinnesotaForecaster! Now it would be great if for an encore for us winter starved fans you can predict a real winter for next season! No pressure! LOL
Beautiful morning, everything coated in white(except the pavement) and now we got our April snow out of the way! Final snow of the season??, perhaps. At least we climbed out of the least snowiest category during the last week of March!
I agree, Bigdaddy, it's a beautiful snowy (unexpected?) April morning. Enjoying what is probably (?) the last snow of the season. Regardless, I am going to enjoy it while it's here! I am hoping it's a harbinger of what we can enjoy next season when winter actually shows up! Viva La Nina!!
As we move to warm weather, it's been a pleasure, everyone. See you in the fall and hopefully for the start of a better, true winter here in the MSP area. This has been one of the most interesting 'winters' in my lifetime. Until then..................
Have a great offseason, WeatherGeek and the rest of the MinnesotaForecaster family! Here’s hoping for a real MN winter next season! See ya all next fall!
Better late than never indeed! Its been a bummer of a winter but I hope we can eke out something interesting before spring fully takes hold. But I am guessing I am in the minority!
ReplyDeleteA lot of 'we who love snow' are on this site, so count me in. That 14.2" we were trying to 'stay under' was a thorn (or icicle?) in the side.... and the more we can creep beyond it, the better, I say. I know it's been a bizarre 'winter' (I'm calling this the year with no winter for myself)..... but as PWL always says, "Bring it." Nobody believes it's going to snow..... so let it snow, snow, and snow. Thanks for starting the new thread, Bill. Much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteI need to put 'nobody' in quotes. So far, of the folks I've told that 'snow is coming'... they have all said, 'No way.' Nonbelievers abound. Let it SNOW!
DeleteLet it snow!!
ReplyDeleteLet it snow! Looks like the Sunday- Tuesday storm could be interesting
ReplyDeleteFrom Novak FB six hours ago: "Take advantage of tomorrow because it goes downhill after that. Mother Nature may try to fit in 3 months worth of winter into these last two weeks of March. Better late than never? Not sure." Wooo hooooooo. It's going to be interesting after today!
ReplyDelete@Dave - thanks for starting a new thread and keeping the snow hope alive! Bring It! Where is PWL?
ReplyDeleteOn 3/17 he was doing the 'orange' dance on the Jan. blog because he says orange on the radar is a good color for snow. Hopefully he will dance over to this new thread soon. The anticipation of the snow......... just 'kills' doesn't it? Here is hoping.........
DeleteChalk this up to “not going to happen” department, but my weather channel app has 15-27” in metro for Sunday thru Tuesday winter storm. It says “ watching a winter storm”
ReplyDeleteBRING IT!!!! Doing the “orange dance” is working!! Most of the maps show a ton of orange in snowfall totals over the next 10 days. It’s working!
ReplyDeleteLET’S GOOOOOOOO!!!
I'm only going to say ditto on BRING IT! (then melt it quick) because my lawn, garden, and trees could use the moisture...and the neighbor kids who shovel my snow could use the $$$...they've only shoveled twice so far. MM ;-)
ReplyDeleteI am rooting for the snow. Like everyone else, I have been searching for snow since last November. Better very late than never, I guess. Speaking of which, I was just watching WCCO news. For what it’s worth, Chris Shaffer is leaning towards more rain than snow next week. Regardless, I can hardly stand watching him or the others on that station. They were acting like we have been pummeled with endless snowstorms and arctic cold over the last 4 months, and that if we can just somehow soldier through a couple more weeks we can emerge into spring from this phantom brutal winter. What??? Smh… Let it snow!
ReplyDeleteDancing and can't stop. Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteSorry snow lovers but after a appetizer of a few inches Thursday, late Sat/Sun storm had the capacity of being a epic one but now all models bring in warmer air sometime late Sunday/early Monday switching over snow to a soaking rain, could we get to a warning level snows of 6” on Sunday? Sure!, but with no switch over it could have snowed into Tuesday morning making it epic, now there maybe no sign of snow come Tuesday due to the rain. Yet another example of how El Niño continues to influence this winter.
ReplyDeleteSounds not so good. If temps go low at night, will there be a bunch of ice, then? Thanks for the update. We need water...... one can still hope some of it is snow. Keep the updates coming and much appreciated.
DeleteMPR's updated Updraft blog is now saying the weekend storm is going to bring heavy snow from about Brainerd northward, and less than 1 inch for the Twin Cities. I love snow, but in a weird kind of way it's been a relief to not have to be concerned about being disappointed (as often occurs, except for last season for the most part) by snowstorms this season. It's late March. I say let's just make it official and write off this terrible and pathetic excuse of a winter, move into spring and look forward to La Nina (fingers crossed) giving us winter next season.
ReplyDeleteExactly! This has been a pathetic and lame winter, and yet another storm going to the warm side with rain. I’m not so sure about Thursdays system either a lot of dry air being spoken about and two distinct areas of heavier snow, wouldn’t be surprised if it stays north and south of the metro and we’re just left with something cosmetic like most of this year.
DeleteNovak's latest take on it (on FB) which echoes what you say above re: warmth cutting into the potential snow: "Look at this ACTIVE & COLD late March forecast. Our first shot of SNOW arrives late tomorrow evening. Then, an even more impressive storm system hammers the region on Sunday & into early next week. Get ready for a slush-fest by Monday."
DeleteThe Winter Weather Advisory is posted for the metro. 3-5" through 10 a.m. Friday morning....... 'bring it'..........
ReplyDeleteHave to admit reading this afternoons CWA discussion is depressing, like some of said the Sunday into probably Tuesday could have been an epic snowstorm now it’s just going to be a slush fest with heavy snow going to heavy rain, I can’t believe we can’t have just one significant snowfall this year(my definition of significant is like double digits with no rain)
ReplyDeleteIt reminds me of growing up back East. I can't tell you have many times a big storm came up the coast and started as a beautiful heavy snowfall with a few inches before the warm air came in off the ocean and turned the snow to a cold, heavy, wind-driven, soaking rain. Very depressing!! It's even more depressing to experience that here in Minnesota.
DeleteBRING IT!!!!
ReplyDeleteLet’s double our snowfall total for the ENTIRE season in just one storm.
Bring it!!!
Paul Douglas in today's online Strib says "4-8" in the metro for the Sunday/Monday event saying the storm 'probably tracks just west of MSP, pulling milder air into the storm's circulation' as some of you wrote above and so............ let's see what comes..........
ReplyDeleteBe aware Sunday system trending slower and bit further east, meaning less rain and a snowier forecast. I would expect an increase in the snowfall forecast and probably a Winter Storm Watch as early as tomorrow morning when the advisory for tonight expires(I’m sure the NWS don’t want to confuse the two so they’ll wait till the advisory expires)
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update, Bigdaddy. Much appreciated.
DeleteJust wanted to chime in with my two cents. I agree with BigDaddy. Here are excerpts from today's 3 PM NWS forecast discussion. Notice how the numbers for along and south of I-94 have increased for tonight. Notice also the comments regarding the weekend storm.
ReplyDelete"KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow is expected tonight. The heaviest area has shifted south
a bit and amounts have increased with some 5 or 6 inch totals
likely along and just south of I-94. The Winter Weather
Advisory was expanded to a few more counties south/west.
- Confidence is increasing quickly for a significant winter
storm late Saturday night into Monday night or Tuesday.
- Biggest change today with the weekend system has been a shift
of the track a bit to the east, with the rain/snow line also
shifting east. Snowfall totals over a foot appear likely
across a large portion of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin."
Thanks for the update, Schnee Meister. It sure is a pretty snow globe out there right now.
DeleteTonight’s snow looks like a miss for the metro in regards to what was predicted(I’m talking MSP and core). Looking at radar and current observations it’s setting up just north of the core.
ReplyDeleteDue to the nature of small scale storms such as this it will always be extremely difficult to pin point exactly where the heaviest snow band will setup.
DeleteI see that Novak is on the fence. He has the potential for heavy rain Monday and also a bust potential for the metro to the east. At the same time, the GFS is up to almost 2 feet of snow for most of the metro. This will be a fun one to watch. I'm ready for Spring, sorry PWL.
ReplyDeleteThis storm is so dynamic it is incredible. Huge amounts of snow somewhere in Minnesota, heavy snow followed by heavy rain in some parts of Minnesota, and just heavy rain close to home.
ReplyDeleteThis. Is. Fun.
I am doing the “all have snow over Minnesota dance” baby!!
Let’s get March out of here like a LION!!
BRING IT!!!!
No kidding. The possibilities are humongous! Could this rival the multi-day Halloween storm for some folks? Maybe!
DeleteIt's great to see finally see snow. Where have you been the past 5 months? The NWS this morning is sounding less confident about a big snowstorm for the metro starting Sunday. All week they have been calling for heavy snow Sunday. Now, it's no longer looking that way. Western MN is looking like the jackpot for this next system.
ReplyDeleteNWS comment this morning:
"As of now, much of southern MN could see a rain/snow mix for a few hours on Sunday before changing back to all snow Sunday night. Blowing snow is also possible especially on Sunday into Monday where wind gusts could exceed 30 mph. Temperatures will warm across eastern MN and western WI with highs in the mid 30s on Sunday then upper 30s to mid 40s by Monday."
I'm so confused. I believe you, Lee, but then why do they (NOAA) have 8-16" snow totals in the latest forecasts for the metro even before Monday's precip gets totalled in as a potential rain/snow mix? Not easy work, being a weather person, that's for sure. I agree with you that it is great to see this snow after my 'year with no winter.' I'm going to enjoy today's slush before the next big event arrives. Thanks again for the discussion update. Lucky western MN.
DeleteWeatherGeek, I think the confusion comes from the fact forecasters are on the fence about the track of the storm (though it appears they are now leaning much more towards a snow to mix to rain scenario) combined with the need to issue an official forecast. Another factor is timing when the transition from snow to mix to rain occurs. All this week there had been no talk of mix or rain until Monday. Now there is talk of mix on Sunday and outright cold rain (with highs around 40) on Monday. At this time signs are strongly pointing to the metro picking up a few inches of snow on Sunday (Sunday night now?) before it gets washed away by heavy rain on Monday. The metro will just miss what would be an epic snowstorm. Stay tuned!
DeleteThanks for the explanation. Much appreciated.
DeleteThe NWS is calling for 10-25 inches Sunday-Tuesday from Rush City north to Duluth.
ReplyDeleteGut feeling Euro going to be wrong on this one, both Euro and the Candian model have had the system progressing too slowly imo. Hence wrapping in more warm air, I like the GFS solution more as it makes more sense. Rarely do we have storms track slowly with such a powerful jetstream. Not to mention I don't believe the jetstream will intensify as quickly as some models are predicting.
ReplyDeleteI don’t know. I hope you’re right, but the latest GFS (12z) is showing heavy rain for the eastern half of MN on north to just south of Duluth by Monday afternoon.
DeleteStorm isn't over the US yet, so the models will improve as it hits land. There is warm air on the front side and wherever that lands will tell the story. I would guess that things tighten up Saturday night.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update.
DeleteShucks. Winter Storm Warning north of the metro; I feel like it's Christmas again, when it rained, rained, rained. The rain will definitely affect what 'could have been' in the metro, and I will be grateful for every flake we can get before it's slush/pure rain. NWS just posted their best predictions as of right now on their FB site, including charts, the warned v watch areas, etc. PWL please keep dancing.... but have an umbrella handy for rain. :+( "The year of no winter."
ReplyDeletePWL dancing no longer is working otherwise it would have kept the changeover to rain from occurring, I believe he needs to find something else to do in its place, singing perhaps? Praying?
DeleteIt’s very disappointing how often the metro is on the rain/snow line, often falling on the rain side. This system will be no exception. A messy sloppy storm for the metro. I guess any moisture we get is welcome at this point. Also, one more example as to why we should not trust the GFS. King Euro has had it raining on the metro for several days now. King Euro wins again. What a horribly crappy excuse of a winter this has been.
ReplyDeleteThis forecast/scenario should not surprise any of us. The writing has been on the wall for the last several days. Besides, it’s almost April anyway. Personally, I wrote off this “winter” a long time ago. I’m looking forward to next season, which has to be much better for us winter fans…right??? Right???
ReplyDeleteBack in April 2018, which I well remember because the fam and I flew in/out in this storm, it snowed 15.8 inches the 13-16th at MSP airport. I usually don't write April off, either. But yes, this winter has not been a winter, that is very true. And yes again, I'm also looking forward to next season...... you are so right that it HAS to be 'much better' for we who love snow. I was just hopeful for this week because the models just didn't give up... ha until within the last day or so.
DeleteI'm now embarrassed I even asked for this thread to be started. Ufduh. However, those north of the metro....... y'all be sure to take delight in what will unfold, right? Onward, snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteTake a deep breath. It will be ok.
DeleteAre you the same anonymous who says PWL should perhaps take up praying? Wish you had a moniker.
DeleteIt is funny to see Mr Novak's latest FB post: "Not sure why so many people are bent out of shape. 5.0" to 10.0" of heavy, wet snow is still a damn big deal." It's fun reading the comments, too.
ReplyDeleteHang in the WeatherGeek!! The HRRR is coming in and showing closer to 10-12 inches for MSP. We don’t have to be in the heaviest for this to be a big storm. 6-12 is huge!!
ReplyDeleteI’m not going to stop dancing! It’s good for my legs, arms, heart, and toes.
BRING IT!!!
WeatherGeek, I think everyone understands the metro should pick up a few inches of snow. I believe the issue most people on here are having about this storm is that it is going to change over to rain. Speaking for myself, there’s nothing worse than having a nice snowfall turn to rain.
ReplyDeleteEuro has continued its southern shift with each model run. I'd say there is a possibility extreme NW metro could stay all snow if it continues.
ReplyDeleteThis week has been fun to follow the models and opinions. Having this thread was part of that fun. We could get a big snowfall even if it switches to rain. Bring it!
ReplyDeleteDamn!! The latest 00Z HRRR model with 15” for MSP. It has MSP as the biggest jackpot snowfall. Plus that’s a 48hr model which brings it to Monday night. Some are now saying there could be accumulating snow for Tuesday as well. Interesting times ahead….a 3+ day storm system!
ReplyDeleteAnyone have any recent model data they’d care to post with snow totals?
ReplyDeleteI sure wish it wasn’t going to turn to rain tonight and tomorrow. What a waste of a snowstorm.
ReplyDeleteMr Novak posted this on FB 10 hours ago: "This storm smells. Something tells me that much of our region will experience a TUE snow too. Storm is trending south. Stay tuned. Much more info. to come tomorrow." So I keep checking for info today at his site.......
ReplyDeleteMr Novak just published (on FB) a slight nudge of high snow totals closer to the north metro but mid/south metro still sit in a potential bust area due to warmth/rain, so all you rain gurus are correct...... "let it snow" (and rain)..... we need the precip! *He has most of the metro in a 5-8" band of white stuff.
ReplyDeleteHRRR 18Z run shows dynamic cooling playing a big role in potentially keeping MSP in snow until after 6 am. Wonder if that will actually happen, I'd say there is a decent chance and is more than possible with the southern shift.
ReplyDeleteNWS has us with pure rain starting at 3 a.m. and all the way till Tuesday. This snow is so pretty!!!!!! I hope what you see, Anonymous, comes to be true so that we get some more snow.
DeleteCentral MSP core getting crushed by heavy snow currently
ReplyDeleteSo far over 5 inches as of 8:30pm in Woodbury! 730-830 I picked up 1.7 inches of snow. Interesting trend with the HRRR model runs from 0Z yesterday to tonight's 0Z run. The southern trend continues as dry air is suppressing the storm from moving as far north.
ReplyDeleteJust shoveled the driveway for the second time, did not measure, however i believe I have taken about 5" off the driveway between shoveling twice. Wanted to try and to get as much snow off before I have to tackle concrete snow with the snow thrower tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteI'm not surprised that we have seen more snow than others were calling for on this thread. A storm delayed is often a stronger strom, it gets more time to organize and deepen on the lee side of the rockies.
ReplyDeleteOppps! Anonymous at 932 is me
DeleteCrazy. Heavy rain in Faribault and the NWS has flipped the southern metro to rain tonight. It is just entering the southern metro. Heck of a storm, impressive on radar.
ReplyDeleteLooks like MSP had a record 8.5 inches yesterday. Sweet. Eau Claire got 10 (record); St Cloud isn't on the NWS site, yet.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteMSP revised the 8.5 to an 8.2R.
DeleteThe snow had turned to a light rain this morning here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area. About 15 minutes ago it suddenly switched to a beautiful moderate/heavy snow with large flakes (with no wind)! Absolutely beautiful! I don't know how long it will last, but I will enjoy it while I can. It is picture postcard gorgeous! Snow fans, see what we have been missing all winter?! Uugghh
ReplyDeleteDynamic cooling will continue to play a role today but due to the temperature I doubt we will see it accumulate but should at least slow down the melting.
ReplyDeleteI was wondering about the extent of the dynamic cooling too. It probably won't last too long, but one can hope. The less rain the better. As someone on here said the other day, there is nothing worse than having a beautiful snowstorm turn to rain!
DeleteBy the way, we picked up a solid 8 inches of snow up here yesterday through last night.
ReplyDeleteNorthern metro is getting slammed by heavy snow!
ReplyDeleteWow - that rain/snow line is little bisecting the Twin Cities. That's good for us Plymouth residents. I know it will move, but the huge flakes this morning are just the best. Keep bringing the huge flakes.
ReplyDeleteDoing the huge flakes/dynamic cooling/keep the rain-snow line south of metro dance!
Bring it!!!!
HRRR 12Z run today looks like we may get another 4-8 inches tomorrow. I mean anything is possible..
ReplyDeleteWe must be right on the rain/snow line here in Plymouth/Maple Grove. This morning at 7AM we had a light rain, which then changed to heavy snow for about 35 minutes. After that there was no precipitation falling at all for approximately 20 minutes. The light rain then started to fall again, but five minutes ago it switched back to all snow.
ReplyDeleteI don’t recall a time when Novak and NWS are this far off in forecast. With regards to the rain turning back to snow by morning.
ReplyDeleteNovak has 5-8+ inches with NWS only having 1-2”.
The storm that keeps on giving I guess….we’ll see what happens!
Let me tell you that was the worst snow to clean, heavy and wet, snowblower bogged down several times.
Holy Snow! No kidding, Bigdaddy. I just hopped over to FB while watching it pour here in SLP. Novak's depiction of tomorrow is so very different from what NWS is putting out. I asked Mr Novak about it, but I don't know if he will have time to respond. Maybe a lot of what he shows will melt down? What a spread. Sorry about the snowblower issues. I live near clinics and folks were out there all night long, literally, pushing snow/cleaning paths.
Delete(This is Bill) - Bigdaddy, I had the exact same thought regarding the difference. In fact, for my old location in St. Paul, the NWS is calling for "less than an inch." Will be interesting to see what happens.
DeleteAnd Paul Douglas shows 2-5" in his late afternoon column (this is Bill)
DeleteThis is going to be very interesting between Novak, NWS and the tv outlets. I just watched Chris Schaffer on WCCO. He said it should snow during tomorrow morning’s rush hour, but he did not mention anything about accumulations. If Novak pulls this off, it will be an incredible victory for him! Let’s Go, Novak!
ReplyDeleteOK. Mr Novak responded to me on FB and said no doubt some will melt; I said well, over here on this site we are rooting for him. :+) And I thanked him for taking time to respond cuz I know he's very busy. He also says he's going live at 9 p.m. tonight to discuss this next system.
ReplyDeleteI watched Novak’s 9 PM video. I noticed the map he put out around 2 PM today for tomorrow’s snow showed 5-8+ inches of snow from Mankato north through the Twin Cities. During his 9 PM video he lowered those numbers to 2-6+ inches, which frankly on the low end puts him right there with the NWS and tv outlets that are predicting 1-2 inches. He explained why we could possibly get several inches, but by lowering his numbers on the low end to be more in line with what everyone else is predicting he clearly is not convinced we will get several inches in the Mankato to TC area. We will see what happens tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the info. The rain sure was steady a lot of the night, just pelting the windows for hours.............
DeleteWe hit another record yesterday with precip at MSP: .78(R) .... imagine if it had been all snow!
ReplyDeleteGood morning, everyone! It’s fun to see it snowing again. You’re right, WeatherGeek. If temperatures had been 5 degrees colder this would have been an epic snowstorm for the metro. Today will feel more like a typical snowstorm. I’m in the northern burbs and the forecast has been increased by the national weather service to 3 to 5 inches today with temperatures falling through the 20s and winds gusting over 35 mph!
DeleteNWS has increased snow totals for my area (Plymouth/Maple Grove) from 1-2 inches (last night’s forecast) to 3-5 inches. It has been snowing here since a little after 6 AM. Looks like Novak was on to something and was ahead of this well beyond all other forecasters, including the NWS.
ReplyDeleteNovak is king! Period.
ReplyDeleteBRING IT!!!
I second the motion re: Mr Novak.
DeleteThis page is the best. I feel the love & I'm blushing!
ReplyDeleteWe need to keep in mind that the NWS is going through attrition just like any other government entity or business. They likely have a bunch of younger professionals that simply don't have the experience as some outside and/or private forecasters.
Quite frankly, I think most forecasters rely too much on model guidance and, more specifically, model QPF. That is a recipe for disaster because you tend to forget about simple weather logic & what makes sense. I know this because I've fallen into this same trap during my career. Model guidance can be our best friend yet our worst enemy.
As far as this morning's heavy snow event, there really isn't much of an excuse for the NWS & any other weather outlets for not tipping off the public about today's heavy snow potential. It was obvious a good 24 to 36+ hours ago that this was a real possibility. Now, these same forecasters are trying to cover their tracks when they could've simply told the public yesterday that this AM could be a shit show.
I hope everyone on this page has a great day. This impressive storm over the last 3 days certainly has put a bounce in my step. Kinda nice to have something exciting to talk about finally.
Take care all!
- Tom
Thanks for the visit over here; you ROCK for forecasts. NWS should have you on a good-sized retainer, seriously.
DeleteI second that, WeatherGeek! Excellent work, Novak!
DeleteThanks Novak. I was letting my loved ones know more snow was coming today. Now I have to drive through the metro for work. Yeah.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Novak. I always listen to and compare many weather forecasting sources - NWS, TV stations, etc. You were the only one that mentioned the possibility of today being more than an inch or two of snow. I watched the late news last night and caught Ian Leonard on Channel 9 and Chris Shaffer on WCCO. Both of them parroted the NWS line of an inch or two this morning. There was no mention of the possibility of anything more significant. I am sure they will have their excuses ready on tonight's evening broadcast. I want to take this opportunity to tell you I appreciate your foresight, skill, and professionalism for not just blindly following the crowd. This is how you always are and I think that is why those of us on this blog are such strong supporters of yours. I also appreciate you taking the time to visit with "little 'ol us" here on the MinnesotaForecaster! Now it would be great if for an encore for us winter starved fans you can predict a real winter for next season! No pressure! LOL
ReplyDeleteBeautiful morning, everything coated in white(except the pavement) and now we got our April snow out of the way! Final snow of the season??, perhaps. At least we climbed out of the least snowiest category during the last week of March!
ReplyDeleteI agree, Bigdaddy, it's a beautiful snowy (unexpected?) April morning. Enjoying what is probably (?) the last snow of the season. Regardless, I am going to enjoy it while it's here! I am hoping it's a harbinger of what we can enjoy next season when winter actually shows up! Viva La Nina!!
ReplyDeleteAs we move to warm weather, it's been a pleasure, everyone. See you in the fall and hopefully for the start of a better, true winter here in the MSP area. This has been one of the most interesting 'winters' in my lifetime. Until then..................
ReplyDeleteHave a great offseason, WeatherGeek and the rest of the MinnesotaForecaster family! Here’s hoping for a real MN winter next season! See ya all next fall!
ReplyDelete