Thanks for the new thread, Bill! Well, Sunday’s “crashing temps and wind” system looks to now be a snowstorm! I just Novak’s 2pm video and the outputs from all the models - wowsers! I know it’s still 48 hours out from onset, but I (we) needed this! Bring it!
Surprise, surprise. I was just checking out NWS over on FB and someone asked about when a winter storm watch will be posted. My jaw dropped and I asked, 'Are you talking metro?' So I came over here and see the new thread. Thanks, Bill. What a crazy 'winter'.... BRING IT indeed. PWL will sure be happy, Big Snow Fan.
I can't wait to see how this plays out because NWS isn't saying much of anything except 'a few inches of snow are possible with highest amounts east of I35W into western Wisconsin' ..... I trust Mr. Novak 100%.
Well this escalated quickly, I’ll be honest this was not on my radar nor was it really on anyone’s until Novak said something yesterday about it(so I’ll give him the credit for being the first to see it). And Novak already is calling for 5-8+ for the metro and the 8-12 range not too far and pointing straight at the metro where he insists more massaging of the numbers are possible, i wouldn’t at all be surprised with that 8-12 range including the metro with what I’m seeing on the various models. THE NWS is playing this waaaaayyy to conservative as usual, at least they admitted it in their afternoon discussion but they are playing catch up again with this one…..yesterday it was only a 40% of snow and today it’s 1-3” of snow for the metro….we should already be under a winter storm watch since we are inside of 48 of the storm. So they will sound the alarm come morning no doubt with a watch and be talking about accumulations in our county warned area approaching a foot! Shame on the NWS for pussyfooting around with this as we have holiday travelers either returning this weekend or traveling for the New Years holiday.
So most of the 00z overnight models are in(latest model runs available) and as you can imagine they are all over the place, so pick your flavor! One thing is it’s going to snow an healthy amount at least warning level snow(6”) So without further ado here are the raw numbers in Kuchera method(for this who don’t know I provided a tutorial below): HRRR(06z, the only 06z model run) 5.8” CMCE 5.8” SERF 5.6” RRFSA 8.2” HRW-FV3 15.8” RDPS 14.7” GFS 9.3” GDPS(Canadian) 17.8” ICON 6.7” UKMET 8.6 ECMWF(Euro) 6.2” ECMWF AI 4.8” NAM 10” NAM 3km 12”
Blend of all the models gives MSP: 9.3” total I would say a fair forecast at this moment would be a range of 6-12” to cover the entire metro avoiding any talk of sharp gradients at the moment, let’s see what the models show later today(Saturday) and go from there, but like I alluded to earlier definitely expect a Winter Storm Watch to be hoisted for a good portion of Minnesota including the metro.
The Kuchera Snow Ratio is a weather model algorithm that predicts snowfall accumulation by calculating a variable snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) based on atmospheric temperature, making it more dynamic than the old 10:1 rule, producing fluffier, lighter snow ratios (like 15:1, 20:1) in colder air and heavier, denser ratios (closer to 5:1, 8:1) in warmer air near freezing, helping meteorologists forecast real-world snow totals more accurately.
This is so so so so EXCITING. Or should we make a new word: SNOW-citing. Novak once again....... seeing something nobody else saw. I 'met him' on this blog eons ago, and have always been in awe. Today's NWS forecast is amazing. I came here before even going to NWS and saw the number of posts before I clicked and knew something was up. PWL, dance away. Schnee Meister, Big Daddy, Anon, Big Snow Fan, Joe, Jason, Not That Bill, and everyone else: LET'S BRING IT. Have a good Saturday, and keep us up to date, please. Thanks.
This. This right now. Want to bottle up the snow excitement for when it’s -20 with bright icy skies :). Let’s hope this all comes together - bring it! Thank you, BigDaddy, for posting the current computer model runs - Love that data.
My New Years Dance worked so well it created a surprise storm BEFORE the new year. I can only imagine what it will do as we flip the calendar.
This. Is. Awesome. Just excited to watch it play out and don’t have to wait a week and watch the models move all over the place. They might wiggle but I will take a wiggle!!
One more 00Z model run raw data before the flakes fly: GFS 11.8 HRRR 11.9 NAM 3KM 11.6 NAM 9.1 GDPS(Canadian) 9.5 ICON 7.6 UKMET 6.6 ECMWF(10:1) 6.1 ECMWF AIFS(10:1) 5.5 HRW FV3 6.6 RRFS A 6.3 RDPS 5.9
So as you can see, a few models have toned it down abit while others blast us with around a foot of snow. Time will tell on this one but it’s safe to say a solid range for this storm remains to be a 6-12” snowstorm. Got my “beast” of a snowblower checked out tonight with air in the tires/gasoline and check to see if starts right up. I’m good all boxes are checked. Let the Snow Fly!!
The radar was pretty quiet at 3:30am but now it is filling in nicely with no colors of pink or purple or green (boo), just white snow so that is good. Hoping this all holds together!
Me, too. That's quite a range NWS is putting out for the metro: 6-14!! But I'm sure it's because it feels like March out there right now and there's lots of melting on contact going on. I'm looking forward to it not being able to melt like that anymore. Can't wait to see how it all plays out. Weird Winter Weather! It's a pretty snow globe out here in the west metro right now.
Just caught part of Novak's live update on FB. BTW it's not only his birthday today, but his wife's also, so people were throwing out the love. He says this storm is going to last another 12-18 hours. He also says plows may get pulled off roads in the southern part of the state as winds pick up and the snow keeps piling up/flying every which way. Yeah, this is some epic storm. I think all we who love snow shall be quite happy and in awe. PWL....... don't slip dancing. Oh, and Mr. Novak in response to one question said when the flash freeze gets here there could a quarter to a half inch of ice under the snow. Not good at all. That part, no thank you.
PWL, I was just thinking the same thing. Novak said in his video this morning the snow should pivot back over the metro and we should see moderate to heavy snow this afternoon until this evening. I hope that’s the case. Right now it’s snowing very lightly and has been for the last hour here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area. At this rate there’s no way we will get 6 inches or more of snow.
This is definitely underperforming. Novak said earlier it was showing signs of over performing. Perhaps it is for Wisconsin. Heck, the wind has barely been above 10-15 mph here in the north metro loop the last couple hours. The forecast had me expecting all hell would be breaking loose by this time in the afternoon with falling and blowing snow. I am always happy when it snows, but I was expecting so much more. I am starting to feel disappointed. So is my family who is here for the holidays. We were all looking forward to an old fashioned kickbutt Minnesota snowstorm today.
I wonder if the large rain event ongoing across the lower great lakes is choking off the moisture return. Looking at radar the whole thing appears to be dissipating. Maybe time for PWL to start dancing.
I feel everyone's pain. Maybe tomorrow Mr. Novak can visit us and explain 'what happened' ........ Our record for today's date is 12" and I was really hoping to get to it or better. It's still a mess out there, but still, nowhere near the hoped for totals.
Okay. Novak just put out some info on FB. MSP is now 6-9" total and he writes, quote: "Already 2" to 4"+ of snow has fallen across our region & there is more to come. Here is the latest 20z HRRR potential SNOW map between now & 6am tomorrow. Notice that our region should receive another 3" - 6"+. Combine that with increasing winds & it will be nasty out there this evening."
I think it’s fair to say a good three inches have fallen so far in the metro. If it continues to snow, even lightly, until 6AM tomorrow, it’s conceivable the metro picks up 6 inches. The forecast is for 6-10 inches.
Exactly. Our collective problem is, we always want more, ha ha. But the spread was 6-14 because of the warmth. Again, if we hadn't had all the rain/drizzle.... but yes, I agree with you, Dave.
As usual, I enjoy the storm and its anticipation from afar. It seems like it's not as impressive as hoped, but the book has yet to be written. I did note that the NWS posted forecast gusts for the afternoon and evening, and at least at present, they seem less than forecast. Not sure what that means with the overall storm progression. Enjoy!
I’m up on the North Shore where it’s windy but no snow. Left MSP earlier than planned and glad I did. The drive up 35 to Duluth this morning was deteriorating quickly. Light snow in Duluth at lunch and then no precip further north.
5.8" NWS; 5.6" CHAN. And I've been listening to someone who is stuck trying to get unstuck for the past hour......... 2:50 a.m. It's wicked out. Oh and 8.5" Eau Claire (R); I think Mankato got 9+. Over and out.
Cool live video from Mackinac Island, Michigan. This is the kind of snow I was expecting here yesterday. It is viewed best on a laptop or large monitor.
Thanks for the link, Joe. Somewhere in northern WI where my granddaughter's half brother lives, he reported 16". I can't even imagine it, but it sure would be fun. Thanks again for the video.
I want to give a shout out to Novak. He was talking about yesterday’s storm when it wasn’t even on the radar of anyone else…as usual. It’s no mystery why Novak is my number one go to guy for accurate forecasts, bar none! Thanks, Tom! Now on to the next storm! Let it Snow!!
Thanks for keeping us all going another year, Bill. For a blip nanosecond of time, I thought the blog was gone yesterday, and it's baaaaacccccckkkkkk. Here's hoping for a snowy '26. And yes, Schnee Meister, Novak is amazing. This blog is where I learned of him 'back in the day.' Right on. Let it snow (sooner or later)............
Thank you, Bill. Now we just need SNOW to come back! :+) It's not looking good, and this icy stuff we keep getting is wretched for slip sliding around. Praying for some snow..........
Novak just sent this message on Facebook Messenger. I never like a seemingly great setup for a snowstorm a week out from the storm. There is too much time for things to go awry. What say you?
“Get ready for some intense snowstorm talk as we head into next week. Here is the latest 00z A.I. GFS upper level wind chart for FRIDAY night. Notice that much of MN/WI is located in a perfect area for a Winter Storm.”
From the NWS CWA Discussion 1/3 P.M.: Otherwise, our weather should remain quiet until at least next weekend, when deterministic & ensemble guidance all depict a strong winter system somewhere over the midwest. Despite the wide spread of solutions in traditional deterministic models, AI deterministic & ensemble guidance both suggest the low taking a favorable track for snow across Minnesota & Wisconsin, so we will have to continue to monitor this time frame through the week.
Yes, Bigdaddy. I see Novak just posted there's a great set up for Friday night/a big storm somewhere in MN/WI. Question is: will it be us? Paul D. noted in today's Strib that quote "climatologist and meteorologist Mark Seeley, who has been tracking Minnesota climate for more than 45 years. In his latest Minnesota WeatherTalk post he writes: "Nine of the last 10 years in Minnesota have been warmer than normal." It still gets cold here, just not as cold, and for not as long. Globally, the last three years have been, by a wide margin, the warmest ever recorded, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service. ... According to Seeley, midwinter rain and ice at MSP is four times more common than it was before 2000." And there it is; not in our imaginations the winters of past and hoping we can get some more SNOW! Thanks for the update, Bigdaddy.
Finally, attention turns to the end of this forecast period and the potential for heavy snow Saturday. Mean EPS MSLP shows a fairly classic Panhandle hook storm track, with a surface low going from the TX Panhandle to the upper Great Lakes Friday through the weekend. Northwest of the low track there will be a band of heavy snow, with double digit snow accumulations possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. There`s still quite a bit of spread with how far east/west this low tracks as this southern stream wave will be merging with a northern stream wave moving along the Canadian border. Exactly how this phasing happens will determine whether we see a heavy dump of snow or absolutely nothing. Looking at EPS QPF probabilities, it`s eastern MN and western WI that have the greatest chance of seeing some meaningful snow locally at this stage of the forecast. At this point, this is still in a keep a close eye on category. It should be noted that with our Blizzard back on December 28th, it wasn`t until two days before the event that models started locking in on the true extent of phasing that would happen, so we`re probably looking at Wednesday or Thursday before you can confidently start trotting forecast snowfall maps out there. It’s been a long while since we had a Panhandle Hooker Storm, they usually have a lot of moisture and can dump heavy amounts of snow! WE ARE STILL BREWING!!
Thanks for the new thread, Bill! Well, Sunday’s “crashing temps and wind” system looks to now be a snowstorm! I just Novak’s 2pm video and the outputs from all the models - wowsers! I know it’s still 48 hours out from onset, but I (we) needed this! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteSurprise, surprise. I was just checking out NWS over on FB and someone asked about when a winter storm watch will be posted. My jaw dropped and I asked, 'Are you talking metro?' So I came over here and see the new thread. Thanks, Bill. What a crazy 'winter'.... BRING IT indeed. PWL will sure be happy, Big Snow Fan.
ReplyDeleteI can't wait to see how this plays out because NWS isn't saying much of anything except 'a few inches of snow are possible with highest amounts east of I35W into western Wisconsin' ..... I trust Mr. Novak 100%.
ReplyDeleteWeatherGeek, I was going to say the same. The NWS is playing it very cautiously. I listen to Novak. Let’s see what the situation looks like tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWell this escalated quickly, I’ll be honest this was not on my radar nor was it really on anyone’s until Novak said something yesterday about it(so I’ll give him the credit for being the first to see it). And Novak already is calling for 5-8+ for the metro and the 8-12 range not too far and pointing straight at the metro where he insists more massaging of the numbers are possible, i wouldn’t at all be surprised with that 8-12 range including the metro with what I’m seeing on the various models. THE NWS is playing this waaaaayyy to conservative as usual, at least they admitted it in their afternoon discussion but they are playing catch up again with this one…..yesterday it was only a 40% of snow and today it’s 1-3” of snow for the metro….we should already be under a winter storm watch since we are inside of 48 of the storm. So they will sound the alarm come morning no doubt with a watch and be talking about accumulations in our county warned area approaching a foot! Shame on the NWS for pussyfooting around with this as we have holiday travelers either returning this weekend or traveling for the New Years holiday.
ReplyDeleteWeather.com showing 8-13” for Minneapolis. Where the hell did this come from. Yesterday I heard snow showers for Sunday.
ReplyDeleteSo most of the 00z overnight models are in(latest model runs available) and as you can imagine they are all over the place, so pick your flavor! One thing is it’s going to snow an healthy amount at least warning level snow(6”) So without further ado here are the raw numbers in Kuchera method(for this who don’t know I provided a tutorial below):
ReplyDeleteHRRR(06z, the only 06z model run) 5.8”
CMCE 5.8”
SERF 5.6”
RRFSA 8.2”
HRW-FV3 15.8”
RDPS 14.7”
GFS 9.3”
GDPS(Canadian) 17.8”
ICON 6.7”
UKMET 8.6
ECMWF(Euro) 6.2”
ECMWF AI 4.8”
NAM 10”
NAM 3km 12”
Blend of all the models gives MSP: 9.3” total
I would say a fair forecast at this moment would be a range of 6-12” to cover the entire metro avoiding any talk of sharp gradients at the moment, let’s see what the models show later today(Saturday) and go from there, but like I alluded to earlier definitely expect a Winter Storm Watch to be hoisted for a good portion of Minnesota including the metro.
The Kuchera Snow Ratio is a weather model algorithm that predicts snowfall accumulation by calculating a variable snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) based on atmospheric temperature, making it more dynamic than the old 10:1 rule, producing fluffier, lighter snow ratios (like 15:1, 20:1) in colder air and heavier, denser ratios (closer to 5:1, 8:1) in warmer air near freezing, helping meteorologists forecast real-world snow totals more accurately.
This is so so so so EXCITING. Or should we make a new word: SNOW-citing. Novak once again....... seeing something nobody else saw. I 'met him' on this blog eons ago, and have always been in awe. Today's NWS forecast is amazing. I came here before even going to NWS and saw the number of posts before I clicked and knew something was up. PWL, dance away. Schnee Meister, Big Daddy, Anon, Big Snow Fan, Joe, Jason, Not That Bill, and everyone else: LET'S BRING IT. Have a good Saturday, and keep us up to date, please. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Watch posted for the metro for 5-8+ inches of the beautiful white stuff!!
ReplyDeleteThis. This right now. Want to bottle up the snow excitement for when it’s -20 with bright icy skies :). Let’s hope this all comes together - bring it! Thank you, BigDaddy, for posting the current computer model runs - Love that data.
ReplyDelete06z GFS and NAM are painting a foot for Minneapolis.
ReplyDeleteMy New Years Dance worked so well it created a surprise storm BEFORE the new year. I can only imagine what it will do as we flip the calendar.
ReplyDeleteThis. Is. Awesome. Just excited to watch it play out and don’t have to wait a week and watch the models move all over the place. They might wiggle but I will take a wiggle!!
Dancing and dancing!
Bring it!!
Minneapolis (Kuchera ratio):
ReplyDelete12z Nam: 13 inches
12z Nam 3K: 8 inches
12z GFS: 10 inches
NWS still putting out 5-9" spread; I'll take it, but always hoping for more. Thanks for the continued updates, fellow snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteOh, yeah, within the last 20' Mr. Novak put up a new graphic on FB: MSP is in his 8.6" range. Pretty please, YAAAS!
ReplyDelete12z (Kuchera)
ReplyDeleteMinneapolis: 9 inches
NW burbs (Plymouth, Maple Grove): 11 inches
Sorry, those figures are from the 12z HRRR
ReplyDelete12z Euro dropped from 6 inches (00z) down to 4 inches, for Minneapolis.
ReplyDeleteBooooo. Four? Awwwww. I hope it goes back up again. Thanks for the udpate.
DeleteWinter Storm WARNING. Let’s gooooo!!!
ReplyDeleteBring it!
Glad to see another chance for snow after all this mushy melting. Bring it!
ReplyDeleteOne more 00Z model run raw data before the flakes fly:
ReplyDeleteGFS 11.8
HRRR 11.9
NAM 3KM 11.6
NAM 9.1
GDPS(Canadian) 9.5
ICON 7.6
UKMET 6.6
ECMWF(10:1) 6.1
ECMWF AIFS(10:1) 5.5
HRW FV3 6.6
RRFS A 6.3
RDPS 5.9
So as you can see, a few models have toned it down abit while others blast us with around a foot of snow. Time will tell on this one but it’s safe to say a solid range for this storm remains to be a 6-12” snowstorm. Got my “beast” of a snowblower checked out tonight with air in the tires/gasoline and check to see if starts right up. I’m good all boxes are checked.
Let the Snow Fly!!
Warning doesn't start until noon, now, in the metro. Wide spread of inches, too, probably because of the warmth? The anticipation........
ReplyDeleteThe radar was pretty quiet at 3:30am but now it is filling in nicely with no colors of pink or purple or green (boo), just white snow so that is good. Hoping this all holds together!
ReplyDeleteMe, too. That's quite a range NWS is putting out for the metro: 6-14!! But I'm sure it's because it feels like March out there right now and there's lots of melting on contact going on. I'm looking forward to it not being able to melt like that anymore. Can't wait to see how it all plays out. Weird Winter Weather! It's a pretty snow globe out here in the west metro right now.
DeleteJust caught part of Novak's live update on FB. BTW it's not only his birthday today, but his wife's also, so people were throwing out the love. He says this storm is going to last another 12-18 hours. He also says plows may get pulled off roads in the southern part of the state as winds pick up and the snow keeps piling up/flying every which way. Yeah, this is some epic storm. I think all we who love snow shall be quite happy and in awe. PWL....... don't slip dancing. Oh, and Mr. Novak in response to one question said when the flash freeze gets here there could a quarter to a half inch of ice under the snow. Not good at all. That part, no thank you.
ReplyDeleteI’m seeing most of the intensity your east. I hope the heavy snow that was happening this morning picks up again. Seems to have lightened up a notch.
ReplyDeleteC’mon. Bring it!!!
PWL, I was just thinking the same thing. Novak said in his video this morning the snow should pivot back over the metro and we should see moderate to heavy snow this afternoon until this evening. I hope that’s the case. Right now it’s snowing very lightly and has been for the last hour here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area. At this rate there’s no way we will get 6 inches or more of snow.
ReplyDeleteThere we go. Back to heavy. Nice band moving in.
ReplyDeleteBring it!!!
I keep searching for heavier bands of snow to develop and cross the TC metro, but I am not seeing any. I hope we aren’t going to bust on snow totals.
ReplyDeleteUnless I am missing something, this is underperforming. Maybe more is yet to develop?
ReplyDeleteThis is definitely underperforming. Novak said earlier it was showing signs of over performing. Perhaps it is for Wisconsin. Heck, the wind has barely been above 10-15 mph here in the north metro loop the last couple hours. The forecast had me expecting all hell would be breaking loose by this time in the afternoon with falling and blowing snow. I am always happy when it snows, but I was expecting so much more. I am starting to feel disappointed. So is my family who is here for the holidays. We were all looking forward to an old fashioned kickbutt Minnesota snowstorm today.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the large rain event ongoing across the lower great lakes is choking off the moisture return. Looking at radar the whole thing appears to be dissipating. Maybe time for PWL to start dancing.
ReplyDeleteI feel everyone's pain. Maybe tomorrow Mr. Novak can visit us and explain 'what happened' ........ Our record for today's date is 12" and I was really hoping to get to it or better. It's still a mess out there, but still, nowhere near the hoped for totals.
ReplyDeleteOkay. Novak just put out some info on FB. MSP is now 6-9" total and he writes, quote: "Already 2" to 4"+ of snow has fallen across our region & there is more to come. Here is the latest 20z HRRR potential SNOW map between now & 6am tomorrow. Notice that our region should receive another 3" - 6"+. Combine that with increasing winds & it will be nasty out there this evening."
ReplyDeleteAnother advertised snowstorm, another dud! Radar returns look weak! BUST!!!
ReplyDeleteI think it’s fair to say a good three inches have fallen so far in the metro. If it continues to snow, even lightly, until 6AM tomorrow, it’s conceivable the metro picks up 6 inches. The forecast is for 6-10 inches.
ReplyDeleteExactly. Our collective problem is, we always want more, ha ha. But the spread was 6-14 because of the warmth. Again, if we hadn't had all the rain/drizzle.... but yes, I agree with you, Dave.
DeleteAs usual, I enjoy the storm and its anticipation from afar. It seems like it's not as impressive as hoped, but the book has yet to be written. I did note that the NWS posted forecast gusts for the afternoon and evening, and at least at present, they seem less than forecast. Not sure what that means with the overall storm progression. Enjoy!
ReplyDeleteI’m up on the North Shore where it’s windy but no snow. Left MSP earlier than planned and glad I did. The drive up 35 to Duluth this morning was deteriorating quickly. Light snow in Duluth at lunch and then no precip further north.
ReplyDelete5.8" NWS; 5.6" CHAN. And I've been listening to someone who is stuck trying to get unstuck for the past hour......... 2:50 a.m. It's wicked out. Oh and 8.5" Eau Claire (R); I think Mankato got 9+. Over and out.
ReplyDeleteI’m not surprised at the totals in Eau Claire and Mankato. I noticed last night that is where the heavy snow bands were located.
ReplyDeleteCool live video from Mackinac Island, Michigan. This is the kind of snow I was expecting here yesterday. It is viewed best on a laptop or large monitor.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.hornsbar.com/webcamlarge/
Thanks for the link, Joe. Somewhere in northern WI where my granddaughter's half brother lives, he reported 16". I can't even imagine it, but it sure would be fun. Thanks again for the video.
DeleteI want to give a shout out to Novak. He was talking about yesterday’s storm when it wasn’t even on the radar of anyone else…as usual. It’s no mystery why Novak is my number one go to guy for accurate forecasts, bar none! Thanks, Tom! Now on to the next storm! Let it Snow!!
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping us all going another year, Bill. For a blip nanosecond of time, I thought the blog was gone yesterday, and it's baaaaacccccckkkkkk. Here's hoping for a snowy '26. And yes, Schnee Meister, Novak is amazing. This blog is where I learned of him 'back in the day.' Right on. Let it snow (sooner or later)............
ReplyDeleteIt was gone for a brief time, but we're back. :-)
DeleteThank you, Bill. Now we just need SNOW to come back! :+) It's not looking good, and this icy stuff we keep getting is wretched for slip sliding around. Praying for some snow..........
DeleteNovak just sent this message on Facebook Messenger. I never like a seemingly great setup for a snowstorm a week out from the storm. There is too much time for things to go awry. What say you?
ReplyDelete“Get ready for some intense snowstorm talk as we head into next week. Here is the latest 00z A.I. GFS upper level wind chart for FRIDAY night. Notice that much of MN/WI is located in a perfect area for a Winter Storm.”
From the NWS CWA Discussion 1/3 P.M.:
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, our weather should remain quiet until at least next
weekend, when deterministic & ensemble guidance all depict a
strong winter system somewhere over the midwest. Despite the
wide spread of solutions in traditional deterministic models, AI
deterministic & ensemble guidance both suggest the low taking a
favorable track for snow across Minnesota & Wisconsin, so we
will have to continue to monitor this time frame through the
week.
WE ARE BREWING!!
Yes, Bigdaddy. I see Novak just posted there's a great set up for Friday night/a big storm somewhere in MN/WI. Question is: will it be us? Paul D. noted in today's Strib that quote "climatologist and meteorologist Mark Seeley, who has been tracking Minnesota climate for more than 45 years. In his latest Minnesota WeatherTalk post he writes: "Nine of the last 10 years in Minnesota have been warmer than normal."
DeleteIt still gets cold here, just not as cold, and for not as long.
Globally, the last three years have been, by a wide margin, the warmest ever recorded, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service. ...
According to Seeley, midwinter rain and ice at MSP is four
times more common than it was before 2000." And there it is; not in our imaginations the winters of past and hoping we can get some more SNOW! Thanks for the update, Bigdaddy.
From this afternoon’s AFD:
ReplyDeleteFinally, attention turns to the end of this forecast period and the
potential for heavy snow Saturday. Mean EPS MSLP shows a fairly
classic Panhandle hook storm track, with a surface low going from
the TX Panhandle to the upper Great Lakes Friday through the
weekend. Northwest of the low track there will be a band of heavy
snow, with double digit snow accumulations possible from the central
Plains into the Great Lakes. There`s still quite a bit of spread
with how far east/west this low tracks as this southern stream wave
will be merging with a northern stream wave moving along the
Canadian border. Exactly how this phasing happens will determine
whether we see a heavy dump of snow or absolutely nothing. Looking
at EPS QPF probabilities, it`s eastern MN and western WI that have
the greatest chance of seeing some meaningful snow locally at this
stage of the forecast. At this point, this is still in a keep a
close eye on category. It should be noted that with our Blizzard
back on December 28th, it wasn`t until two days before the event
that models started locking in on the true extent of phasing that
would happen, so we`re probably looking at Wednesday or Thursday
before you can confidently start trotting forecast snowfall maps out
there.
It’s been a long while since we had a Panhandle Hooker Storm, they usually have a lot of moisture and can dump heavy amounts of snow!
WE ARE STILL BREWING!!
The last part about the hooker is my line 😉 if you didn’t figure it out!
ReplyDelete