There's a threat of snow for Thursday/Friday, with the NWS saying, "Unsettled Thursday and Friday, with light snow, though it only looks to amount to up to 4 inches of accumulation." Of course most Minnesota Forecaster devotees are hoping for more. Cue the discussion.
Thanks, Bill! Novak hinted a clipper type system for later this week. What are you snow lovers seeing?
ReplyDeleteLet me provide some fun facts about this winter and some truths to dispel some of this narrative of a weak winter thus far(from last post)..
ReplyDelete-November snow 7.8”(normal avg. 6.8”) +1”
-December snow 16.0”(normal avg. 11.4”) +4.6”
-Consistent snow cover since 11/26…..48 days and counting
-All White Holiday…we had snow cover for all 3 holidays(Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Years)
Now with all that said I do admit January has been off to a slow start(thus far 0.8” of snowfall) but after today we see a pattern flip, a flip to colder air for sure and with a consistent NW flow we could be setting ourselves up for another “clipper train” with a solid chance of 3-4 clippers over the next 7-10 days starting Thursday, now typically clipper don’t lay down a ton of snow but they provide “shots” of snow and sometimes you can get 1-2 stronger clipper’s so when you add up the sum of all of them it can be a good pile. So let’s see how these next 7-10 days play out but my gut tells me we will have a nice freshen up landscape in 10 days with additional snow added to our snowpack and our snow cover streak will continue, also there will be an abundance of cold air flowing with this pattern so melting and precipitation types won’t be an issue, also with this pattern I can definitely see at least one big storm come out of it since the temperature gradient from warm to cold will setup close to us(out in the Dakotas) where I can see us being hit with a “Colorado Low” or “Panhandle Hooker” type of storm which are typically larger snow producers for us in the 6-12+ range, which we are long overdue for one of those. So here’s too some happy snow fall watching and weather model observing.
LETS GET BREWING!!
Thanks for the updates/new thread. C'mon, snow!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the post, Bigdaddy. To be fair, I don’t recall anyone saying this has been a weak winter. I recall people saying winter got off to a strong start but has been rather wimpy the last three weeks. I agree. I am surprised MSP still has snow cover at 3 inches. I imagine that will decline after this morning‘s and tomorrow’s measurement. It was in the 40s yesterday, stayed above freezing last night and will be in the 40s again today. I think someone here mentioned we should be building snow pack now not melting it. It’s mid-January for goodness sake. As of now Thursday’s snow is looking cosmetic at best. I am crossing my fingers winter will arrive this week and stay, but time will tell.
ReplyDeleteNot a weak winter? I beg to differ! Late November into the first couple weeks of December brought some really good winter weather. Ever since it’s been nothing but no snow and warm temperatures (9 out of 10 days) melting the snow we do have. As of a few minutes ago half my front yard is bare ground! Before Christmas I measured 10 inches! It’s been one January thaw after another with temperatures in the 40s, including yet again today. It’s mid January and I can’t even go cross country skiing anywhere that doesn’t make snow, because the trails are either closed due to lack of snow or rated as poor due to many bare spots on the tracks! What happens going forward, I don’t know. What I do know is this winter the past few weeks downshifted into the lame phase just like the last couple winters and like what is typical anymore.
ReplyDeleteHi everyone - I re-read my post above. It sounds a little angry. That was not my intention at all! I apologize for that! I do respectfully disagree that this winter hasn’t been weak, but the definition of weak depends on the individual. I want to make clear I in no way am attacking Bigdaddy or the numbers he presented. Like most of us on here I miss when winters were winters, and not a continuous mix of winter/spring/fall weather.
ReplyDeleteAw, Dave, that's okay. Thanks for your apology. We know you love winter, too, or you wouldn't be on here. The snow totals continue to be tiny in the forecast, so phooey! Here's to snow.
DeleteI’m sure tomorrow’s clipper is weak but does anyone have model data now through Monday for potential snow accumulation?
ReplyDeleteThe models have been pretty consistent with showing a 1-4" snow total map from now through the weekend. The only outlier (and it has been consistent) is the Canadian model. That model has been showing a 4-6 amount. The NAM was meager a few runs ago (like around an inch) and the last couple of runs show 2-3 inches. The HRRR (short-term model) is just coming in and it shows a few inches prior to Saturday so we will see what it adds to it from Saturday.
ReplyDeleteWhatever model I am dancing to, I am saying BRING IT!!!!
Just saw the forecast. It continues to be safe to keep the snowblower in storage for at least another week. As others have said, what a wimpy January. Will February follow suit?
ReplyDeleteToday in the Strib Paul D wrote: "My strong hunch: Snow lovers (you know who you are) will be smiling again by late January." So I'm posting it here. Let's see if we are all dancing like PWL 'by late January.' We've got two weeks left, and I concur that this doesn't look like snowblower weather at all.
DeleteYah, this Friday/Saturday system(s) seem fickle and moisture starved. Hoping PD's comments for the end of January hold true - Bring It!
ReplyDeleteMSP snow measurement is officially at a trace. Meager snow accumulations, at best predicted for the next week to 10 days.
ReplyDelete1.1” MSP and 2+ Chan. Let’s see if we add some tomorrow. Little by little….
ReplyDeleteFrom Paul Douglas in the Strib as we come to the end of a basically dry month: "Another pesky snow drought has arrived in Minnesota. Who knows what will happen between now and April, but January snowfall has been a bust: 4.1 inches at MSP so far this month, allegedly the second-snowiest month of the year.
ReplyDeleteWho has seen more snow in January? Oklahoma City has (4.4 inches), along with 5.5 inches falling on snowy Marks, Miss. Indianapolis has had 11.1 inches and New York’s Central Park has seen a whopping 11.4 inches. Oh, the indignity of it all. We got off to a promising start to snow season in early December, but it’s been all downhill ever since.
A scrawny clipper may unleash a whopping inch or two on Sunday, but no significant moisture capable of fueling a real snowstorm is in sight."
The cold finally arrived. Unfortunately the snow didn’t. I guess ice skaters and ice fishing people are happy!
ReplyDeleteI don’t like the trends they are predicting for February. Looks like the ridge out west is going to build over the central U.S. and bring much warmer weather and of course very little if any snow. I have heard a couple other sources say February will be cold with at least average snowfall. However, it appears the consensus now is February will be a warm dry month. Not sure what Novak and Paul Douglas were talking about recently when they said snow lovers would be happy in February.
ReplyDelete@Not that Bill, I have read and heard the same thing about the February forecast. Lucky for us the first two weeks of December gave us snow. It wasn’t even officially winter then. Since winter officially started we’ve had (TC Metro) possibly 6 inches of snow total? We wouldn’t have had any snow if it had not been for the clippers. So far, the predictions of a snowier winter than average are falling flat on their face.
ReplyDeleteLatest models are predicting only 1-2 inches of snow for the TC metro between today through February 19.
ReplyDeleteNow, why did Paul Douglas say snow fans would be happy come February????
Belle on Kate 11 just said she thinks for the most part we are done with winter. She said there is no cold air or snow in sight for the TC metro for at least the next two weeks. Hmmm… Brazen comment?
ReplyDeleteIt's just been a sad, sad winter for we who love snow is all I can say. I often look at this site and remember 'the good old snow days' of years past...... Novak would say, 'It's not over, yet,' I am sure, but yeah, after the decent start it's been crickets in the snow department. :+(
ReplyDeleteNovak posted about an hour ago there are no storms in sight for us and cold air will be bottled up in Canada for most of February. Sounds like Belle at Kare 11 was onto something with her comment last night. And to think we got off to such a great start to the season. El Niño is predicted to return next winter. We all know what that means. I long for the time when we used to have consistent winter weather all winter, as opposed to a two week block of winter weather here and there.
ReplyDeleteUpdate today: Novak has posted this: "Get ready for a ton of SNOW talk as we head into next week. Forecasters will start changing their tune after they view the latest 12z medium range guidance runs. Here are the latest 12z GFS & Euro A.I. solutions. A consensus is building for significant accumulations over the next two weeks." One can hope, pray, wish, and DANCE, PWL.
ReplyDeleteWeatherGeek, I will believe it when I see it. It looks like northern MN might get a respectable dumping of snow later next week. Temperatures today through next week in the TC will be 45-50 degrees, if not warmer, each day. You know, typical February weather anymore. Besides, winter is almost over. I looked at the data back to the 1880's and saw that with one or two exceptions every winter saw temperatures consistently in the 40's, 50's or warmer by March 20. That is only a little more than a month away.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the info, Joe. I believe all you say. I have a relative who needs snow for his business, and every year just seems worse than the previous one. Looks like we will break a temp record this weekend, and Paul Douglas in his weather column stated: "Cold spells with temperatures below 24 degrees are now 10 days shorter than they were between 1970 and 1997." He also noted that: "From 1873 to 1990, MSP experienced a 50 degree February day 43% of those years. Since 1991, the metro has hit 50 in February 60-65% of the years." I guess we who love snow have to face the facts and reality. We who are older are lucky we got to experience 'old winters' v the new ones. My kids/grands/great grands won't often get to have that experience. Warming houses are already shutting down this week in my neck of the woods. Thanks again, Joe.
DeleteI hear you, WeatherGeek. Wish I moved to Fairbanks, AK when I had the chance. Alaska is the last frontier for true winters (cold AND snow!) anymore. More than two feet of snow currently on the ground in Fairbanks. Several more inches expected this week. Continued flow of nice cold air to preserve the snow. No rain or precip mixing issues nonsense for them!
DeleteRecord breaking snowless February on tap for the Twin Cities? Per my research, the Twin Cities has never had a completely snowless February, though it has come close. The closest to a snowless February occurred in 1891 (which was essentially snowless), followed by 1894 and 2017, which saw only 0.3 inches of snow.
ReplyDeleteAgain, it’s beyond me what Paul Douglas and Novak were talking about when they said snow lovers would be happy come February????? Reality has literally been the exact opposite of that! There is nothing to enjoy about the chilly October-like rain this week.
The latest GFS is predicting one inch of snow for the Twin Cities through March 3 and the EURO is predicting four inches of snow for the Twin Cities through March 2.
ReplyDeleteI echo the dismay at all of the predictions of a supposedly snowier than average winter. Epic fail! I am also surprised by the predictions by PD and Novak of a snowy February. I don't pay much attention to Paul Douglas anymore, but Novak is usually pretty spot on, just not this time.
Ever notice they never blow the seasonal or even monthly forecast in favor of winter? They never predict warm and it turns out cold. They never predict dry and it turns out snowy. When they miss the forecast it always goes in favor of warm, dry. Just saying.
ReplyDeleteGreat discussions above; Mr. Novak has us in 'moderate/anticipate problems' for a weekend burst of snow? If you use FB, it's on his site. IDK. Time will tell. I sure miss snow. It's a long time till the weekend.
ReplyDeleteWhen the Euro model and Novak latch on and we are within 5 days, I tend to dance!! Dancing for a storm late Thursday into Friday. His days are glorious, but we need more snow! Lots more snow! Then happy dancing will occur all summer long!
ReplyDeletePlease dance furiously. As Paul Douglas says in his Strib column today: "It has been 51 straight days since the Twin Cities has seen a 2+ inch snowfall. Commuters may be relieved, but Minnesota snow lovers are apoplectic." Indeed! I say bring something, anything, Old Man Winter.
Delete