Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Final Predictions for Wednesday Snow Event (Nonevent?)

There's nothing to say about Wednesday's possible snow event that hasn't already been said -- except for maybe to say that expected snowfall amounts continue to decline. As of 6 p.m. on Tuesday, with snow generally expected to begin falling around midnight, here are the final forecasts. The full, lengthy history of forecasts on this storm that began nearly a week ago can be viewed here.

WCCO: "Several inches" (no specific numbers given for metro)
KSTP: 1-5 inches
FOX: 1-3 inches
KARE: 2-4 inches
Strib: 1-3 inches
MPR: 1-4 inches
NWS: About 2 inches

TMF will issue forecaster its objective, subjective grades shortly after the snow has concluded. If you'd like to be notified when they come out, please follow us on Facebook and Twitter.


  1. Very interesting storm. I live in Red Wing and I hear anywhere from 1 to as much as 8 inches will fall. Though from what I can tell we should be right around 4 or 5. 6 if we're real lucky.

  2. Looks like a decent warmup coming soon. Weather pattern still seems to want to send storms our way. Hopefully we can avoid heavy rainfall and just get a nice steady snow melt

  3. It appears the heaviest snow, according to NWS radar @ 12:08 am is just northwest of Mankato to the southern edge of Minneapolis (darker green returns). Not sure what that is translating to as far as rates. Very light fine snow in northern Dakota County, probably 0.1" so far as of 12:30 am.

  4. What a buzz-kill.

    Storm was a bit disjointed and moisture starved. Models actually predicted the correct path, they just overestimated the strength and moisture feed. You knew that we were in trouble when Nebraska got basically skunked yesterday. This was proof that the storm was anemic and having tough time ramping-up.

    I would have to say that this was a huge BUST when considering how much the storm was hyped by some forecasters and the models. It appears that the Euro models caught onto the anemic trend quicker than the NAM/GFS.

  5. A buzz-kill/big bust, but not totally shocked. Convection really took off in the ArkLaTex and appears to have taken away some of the punch, too. As a result many severe warnings and widespread flooding and to continue into here in Georgia as it pours outside now. Well, lets regroup and see what Friday's little event brings to the Upper Midwest.

  6. Is anyone concerned/focused on the roller coaster that is late next week?! I mean, the GFS 6Z yesterday had 1.79" of precip on 3/18! It's obviously not at that level now, but do you guys still think the potential is there?

    It's funny, after the bustapalooza that's outside now, it's TV silence out there now about a storm next week! I suppose it's tough to see what the future models are saying through all that egg on their face.

  7. Although the storm was confused from the unset the final numbers sit well here in St. Paul. 1-11/2 inches.

  8. With the latest poor performances from the NAM/GFS (The last 2 storms have been horrible), I would expect many broadcast Mets to be "trigger shy" when it comes to hyping the next few storms.

    It is quite obvious that computer models have a more difficult time during the Spring season when it comes to predicting snow events. This is why I'm not surprised that a bust occurred in the MSP metro.

    Keep in mind though that southeast MN has received a healthy snowfall of 3"-6". LaCrosse is measuring right around 6" as of 9am. This was not the block-buster 12"+ snowstorm, but certainly within computer model predictions of the last several runs. In other words, the models did a fine job of forecasting for parts of the Upper Midwest.

  9. Trigger shy?! Not Paul Douglas. Already talking "more snow for Saturday". Can't even let one "event" end before boiling it up again!!! Chicago was right, "goof on the roof" indeed! No wonder they sent him packing. But not us. We need our weather hyped here in the Twin Cities!!

  10. The storm system for late Friday into Saturday is interesting. It will likely slow down and nearly stall right over MN due to a blocking storm in the eastern U.S.

    I don't believe that the models have a good handle on how this system will evolve and it will likely surprise us in some way. I wouldn't be shocked if someone in central/southern MN were to receive a healthy snowfall by late Saturday.

  11. Novak:

    I'm monitoring the MPX and ARX chat through a site called iembot, also storm reports are showing up on my Gibson Ridge radar program (the same one TWC uses during severe weather) the highest reports I see are 5" in Adams county WI near Madison. Am I missing something?? I don't see any 6" reports, What am I missing? I do see a 4" report in Houston county.

    For anyone out there you can follow the reports coming into ARX and MPX here...http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/iembot/

  12. MPX cancels Winter Weather Advisory for Barron, Dunn, Pepin, Pierce, St. Croix [WI]

    MPX cancels Winter Weather Advisory for Dakota, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Rice, Steele, Waseca, Washington [MN]

    MPX extends time of Winter Weather Advisory for
    Chippewa, Eau Claire, Rusk [WI] till 3:00 PM CST

    looks like it's done

  13. correction to a earlier post....Adams county near Mautson not Madison sorry

  14. sorry for the long post in advance

    Friday night and Saturday

    The GFS and Nam seem to be similar in that there should be an inverted trough over MN with a weak embedded low pressure system setting up over the ND/MN border. That should travel se and strengthen as it approaches ARX. That solution should bring a period of light rain followed by light snow, total snowfall 1-2"

    However, The ECMWF(European) the UKMET(United Kingdom) and the GEM(Canadian) all move a surface low over the international border that strengthens as it approaches lake Superior. With the Arrowhead of MN and far Northern WI picking up the heaviest precip amounts. It looks like northern WI could see 2-5" of lake effect snow.

    Right now I am running away from the GFS/NAM as fast as I can...so here is how I see Fri/Sat. Friday night becoming cloudy with lows around 18-20 winds out of the south at around 10mph.
    For Saturday mostly cloudy with temps dropping to between 15-18° winds turning to the west by morning and to the nw during the day becoming sustained between 15-20mph, with gust between 30-35mph bringing wind chills to around zero, chance of precip 30% snow accumulation less than 1/2"

    Laugh if you want but there is my guess, hope i don't have egg on my face

  15. Can someone run an analysis between the accuracy of Paul Douglas 7 days out vs. the 2011 Old Famers Almanac which printed in October 2010?

  16. I think there needs to be a Paul Douglas Forecaster... that focuses on his forecasts alone.

  17. randy: As of 2:52pm today, the NWS in LSE reported 6.2" of snow. You should be able to find this right on their home page.

  18. Thanks Novak I haven't looked since that post