Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
It won't last as gfs models bring back some mild air after this cold snap
I think its awesome,bring on fall.Bill I have seen lows outside the heart of metro as low as 35 predicted.
Find your ice scrapers. The outer ring suburbs could likely see their first "scrape morning" on Thursday!
wow what a difficult forecast this is for Thursday morning, as mentioned before in the previous thread, record low's may be seen, but will that mean a frost or a freeze?...The SREF plume forecast for the ensemble means is tightly clustered at about 28°,but the 10m wind forecast is between 10mph and 1mph w/o a tight cluster.The Nam operational seems to be colder than the Nam Bufkit sounding, but the GFS seems to be cold both ways, and Moss with a this strong of cold wave is almost useless....Just checked the 18z GFS operational and it takes 32° all the way to southern Iowa, I don't believe that vs. climatology.Which lead's me to the euro model, although info is limited for that it has been consistent in its last two runs in that it shows lows on Thursday morning around 37 or so even for the north metro.So much depends on the winds, if they are around 5 knots than the cooler air aloft will mix with the warmer air near the surface keeping us above freezing, if they are near zero we could see some freezing temps around the metro. At this time I will go with the model that does the best with the season change, the Euro...low should stay above freezing with some frost in the usual low lying area's. Confidence at this time is low (as you can see why.)Stay tuned to your favorite pro outlet to let you know the latest, but plan on bringing your sensitive plant indoors or covering them. Is it any wonder why these guys and gals have a hard time with the forecast during the season change? WEATHER IS NOT A EXACT SCIENCE!!! you never start with a exact known set of values, therefore the outcome is always in question.
Forecast lows keep dropping. Carver county's forecast is down to a low of 32 for Wed night according to NWS and 34 according to weather.com.
The weather hype and hysteria begins! LOL
NWS just issued freeze warning.
How do I feel about this sobering development? Shrugging it off as usual, as their forecasts usually don't follow all the hype. I'm guessing they're going to be a few degrees off. :)
Healthy skepticism is always a good thing.
Hello heat island.MSP hits 38. Lakeville hits 28.No wonder the new average lows have skyrocketed in the winter months.
Media/weather hysteria fail.
It was NOT a media/weather "hysteria fail" unless you live in such a small urban bubble that anything out of the core Cities is considered obsolete. Kare 11 said all day yesterday that it was the ring OUTSIDE of 494 that was at risk, not the downtown areas. The station's backyard hit 36 (that's frost weather) and the outer ring suburbs were in the 20s. Carver county had heavy frost completely covering roofs, cars, and lawns and took until an hour after sunrise to melt away. Tender plants that were left out are likely dead. Had they not warned of the frost and freeze the way they did, hundreds of thousands of people would have been caught off-guard.
I would agree that this was not a media/weather hysteria fail. Personally, I was surprised that the cold seemed to be every bit as advertised and I think Paul Douglas underestimated things a tad. Although it sounded like it was less frosty where I live in residential St. Paul, there was still some frost on the roofs and a little on the grass. I'd term it a light frost, but a frost nonetheless. However, flowering plants seemed to have survived the night.
No frost on my yard in Minneapolis. Before I went to bed, I was watching Dave Dahl, and he downgraded the temps to be as low as 25 degrees and as high as 32. It was 38 in Minneapolis. If these temps DON'T include Minneapolis and St. Paul, they don't say so.
Indian summer coming....I don't think so. Monday and Tuesday highs around 71 or 72, sure that is above average but only by about 3° maybe 4. Highs Wednesday could get to around 76 which would be plus 8 or so, but than the bottom will drop out, Thursday 65°, Fri 56, Sat 57.I was afraid of this, when the stupid cut off low finally can exit the NE US coast a stronger trough will be set to enter British Columbia. As it comes on shore it will act to flatten the western ridge, thus keeping the warmer temps to our south and west. As the upper trough approaches MN it could develop a closed low over North Central Mn (but not cut off) at least at this time. The long and short of it is that if we do see a true Indian summer it should happen around the end of the first week of Oct.
What happened to their earlier forecasts in the week where it was supposed to be beautiful and in the 70's this weekend? LOL If they can't predict anything within 48 hours with the possibility of being close to correct, they need to quit forecasting 5-7 days out. They are never correct. I know forecasting weather is not easy, but I wish they would quit trying to forecast 5-7 days out when they clearly cannot. Do they really think people don't notice? And doesn't Indian summer usually come in October? It didn't last year, we had a totally lousy October, but the first couple of weeks of November were really nice until the bottom dropped out right after that.
It might not have been in the 70s, but it sure was beautiful where I spent my Saturday! They can be wrong whenever they want if it brings me 60s and sunshine in late September!
The problem is the local mets never pay any attention to the Euro model. Last Monday I gave this forecast to my mother who was going to Duluth this weekend from Austin MN. Saturday mostly sunny high's 60-65, with a beautiful sunrise on the bus.. somewhere around Hinckley. She left Austin, MN at 4am that morning. Sunday I told her the high temps would be around 65-70, obviously that turned out to be a little low. But my initial forecast was 5° cooler than most of our local mets, as well as the NWS in Duluth.
ok time to decide to stay on the sidelines or put out a forecast for next week, I think I will take the plunge. Monday high of 74°, Tuesday 79°, Wednesday 85°, Thursday 83°, Friday 80°, Sat 82°. Gulp...I'm going way out on a limb on this, but the Euro has been very solid on this for several runs now. I'm much warmer than what everyone else is thinking, but I have based that forecast on dew points, I think for the most part they will stay in the mid 40's to low 50' which should allow us to warm up big time. By the end of the week the average high temps are around 61 to 62.. So with 80-85° temps with low dew's, this could be the nicest week of the year.
You might not be as far out on that limb as you think. Even NWS is saying low 80s now.
The question is can we set a new high temp for Wednesday that is 132yrs old? The record high for Oct 5th is 87, set in 1879. The nam is calling for 89, and it seemed to be the best at forecasting yesterday's high.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55832/brutal-winter-ahead-for-the-mi.aspHere we go again...prognosticators have their crystal balls out.
@Dirty CI wouldn't believe accuweather if they said the sky was blue. As a liberal weather geek, they earned a permanent ban from me due to the Santorum nonsense several years ago.
@Randy, that was some good plunging you did this week, in predicting mid-80s. Nice job!!!
Indeed! Well done, Randy. Would have been interesting to compare your prognostications to the big-name mets in the area.
@AB, @Bill...Thank you for the comments. The 500mb heights along with the 850mb temps supported these types of Temps..The GFS was consistently 10° cooler than the Euro. I wanted to post the forecast on the 28th instead of the 30th, but decided to wait for two or more runs of the Euro. But I must admit, I had some help from our local NWS office, In one of their area forecast discussion's that was issued around the 28th or 29th, the forecaster said something like....this far out I would bet 100% of the time on the Euro....Thank you MPX for confirming my thoughts.....I just added about 3° to the Euro solution.
Strib blog (Todd, not Paul Douglas) mentioned possible snowflakes in extreme northern MN over the upcoming weekend. What do the models say? Realistic possibility or making something out of nothing? It wouldn't be at all out of the ordinary (they've already seen their first flakes)...just seems crazy to think about in our current string of 80+ days.
Hey Bill I think you need a updated post,maybe for finally feeling like FALL,let the craziness of winter forecasting begin,read Douglas's blog last night talking about rain-snow line for next monday 10/17,funny thing is he says snow possible north and west of the cities,but then proceeds to show you a diagram with a purple line depicting the rain/snow line which is well south of the cities,Paul Douglas always contridicting himself
Done, Big Daddy! Share away!
Big Daddy, PD really didn't contradict himself, the line he drew south of the Cities depicts the snow/rain line based on the 500mb heights about, 18,000 feet up, the reason why he showed possible snow west and north of the metro is that the temps in the lower altitudes may support some flurries in that area but not necessarily further south