Thursday, February 16, 2012

Monday Snow Possibilities?

Update: Most forecasters now see Monday's storm as something less than a significant snowstorm.

For what seems like the first time in months, many weather outlets are looking at a legitimate possibility of snow on or around Monday, Feb. 20. While there's been hopeful talk about snowstorms in the past, this possible event is being noted by virtually all weather outlets, making it unique for this season. We'll be tracking what forecasters say about this possible storm as things evolve.

Even normally conservative KARE11's Belinda Jensen mentioned that "one model is predicting a big snowstorm here on Monday." While she went on to acknowledge that the model is frequently wrong (news flash!) and that they're looking hard to find possible snow, it's still noteworthy to us that she even mentioned the possibility.


Headline from MPR's weather blog, a weather outlet that tends to be judicious in mentioning upcoming snowstorms.

85 comments:

  1. what looked so promising the last few days is now in serious doubt. The 14/12z GFS agreed with the 14/0z ECMWF, than the 14/12z run of the ECMWF came in and showed the northern branch being more dominant showing us being clipped by a disturbance originating north of the border, which would bring us very little snow. Low and behold the 14/18z gfs agrees. If that pattern should verify,snow fall would be in the 1-2 inch range if that. one could say that the split flow will continue

    ReplyDelete
  2. It seems like the models this winter are having a terrible time with the split jet beyond day 5. I know when I see what might happen out around days 7-10 a part of me wants to jump up and down, but then realize somethings going to change and the storm will change course (probably south) and leave us high and dry.
    also, is it me or even the storms that do hit parts of the country aren't that big anyway. has there been a 'blockbuster' storm with a deep low pressure that engulfs a large region? it seems everything has been localized, maybe over a state or two.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I dont see what all the huff is about,just because some models runs looking out 7 days shows a big potential for snow,that has happened about dozens times this winter just to end up with a dusting,to me winter has been long over.Have anyone of you shopped around lately...Costco and Sams Club has lawn fertizler and hoses and potting soils for sale,Home Depot's have large patio displays,also Home and Patio show is this weekend,I would just about forget this dismissal winter and look forward to a nice and early spring,image planting bulbs in March,cutting the lawn in early April,we could quite possibily have a real spring for once and not worry about snow and colds that affect our planting season.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The GFS has become a pretty big tease now. It is always comical to see systems in the really long range, and now even see those systems just brush us but still hammer everyone else in the middle part of the nation. I'm sticking with at least one large storm eventually hitting us before this "winter" is officially over...question remains when.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Channel 4 must be hard up for snow ratings... They usually preach responsibility and not throwing out numbers too early, but both Chris Schafer and Mike Agostinilijk mentioned the potential for 6" next Monday. Of course they did qualify it with the standard "it's a long way out" and "to early to say for sure" but they did not hold back on "potential" amounts.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I know this thread is for next week,but did I miss something for later today,DD on his morning radio spot on ks95 said twice that this evenings rush is going to be horrible with snow/sleet moving in this afternoon and lasting thru the evening rush hour,he even said were going to get a coating and quite possibly measureable snow,looking at current radar its lighting up west of here.What gives this is first I'm hearing of this,Novak,Randy,Duane,Bemaki you got anything to add.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Not much to add except that you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. Whatever falls this PM, and it won't be much, could easily cause problems on metro freeways. However, if you talk about the event at all, you will get individuals like 'Crabby' bash you because they feel you are hyping it. Meanwhile, if you say little, or nothing at all about it, you will get pissed-off commuters who will say they didn't hear about this coming. I don't think there is any doubt that a coating of snow/mix will fall in the metro, but is it worth talking about?

    As far as next week is concerned, I still have the same concerns that we've had all year. First, where is the Arctic air going to come from. Second, will the jets phase. Lastly, will the storms develop quick enough to tap Gulf Moisture. I'm hesitant to jump on board yet because I'm simply not confident that we have all 3 coming together. On the other hand, I love the fact that our upper-level flow will be coming from the SW rather than the NW for much of next week and weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  8. First of all, with temps near or into the 40's (is it really 47 at Crystal airport?) snow won't accumulate to anything if it even falls as snow. Looking at radar, it is changing over to rain at a pretty good pace, which could glaze up some roads. I'm really not holding my breath at all for Monday. I guess it is possible for the models to increase the strength of the system over the coming days, but right now it isn't a very good look for accumulating snow. Typically we want the low to be in the strengthening phase as it moves up towards the area. In this case, it is weakening. All eyes will be focused on what happens by the end of next week. It is a looong ways out, but the GFS seems persistent on developing a storm system and having it move close to home. Again...looong ways out, but maybe it is a sign of things changing.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Just took a glance at the 12z ECMWF. Somebody in the Dakotas and/or MN will receive accumulating snow early next week, but it is a guess right now as to exactly where.

    What is more intriguing is the set-up for late in the week and next weekend. This is the first time all season that I can honestly say that the Upper Midwest may be in a 'Classic' Winter Storm set-up environment. The Euro finally shows a deep reservoir of Arctic air over the Canadian prairies that is poised to make a southward movement into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a major trough develops over the Rockies which would favor lee-side low development over the front range. Finally, moisture should pool over the Gulf states and head north ahead of the trough. In other words, potentially all 3 winter storm aspects come into play:
    1.) Arctic Air.
    2.) Phasing of jet into one trough over the western US/Rockies
    3.) Moisture surging north from the Gulf

    Should be interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I agree with Duane, Monday will not be the Block-Buster storm. There will likely be some locally heavier snows somewhere in the Upper Midwest, but there simply is NOT the cold reservoir of Arctic air available for the storm. Typical of what we've been experiencing this season. Where is the Arctic air?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Looking at the overall pattern down the road, it does appear as though the GFS and Euro do have some similarities. The timing is different by about 24 hours with the GFS being faster, but both GFS and Euro do dig a trough into the west coast, and pump up a pretty good ridge into Alaska. As I said a while ago, I am very interested to see how things unfold at the end of the month with the oscillations changing the way they are. I'm pretty excited to see the model runs next week, as they will start to get in a good range for the Euro and GEM to fully see into that timeframe. I'm not expecting much for real arctic air (I think that time has pretty much passed), but that doesn't mean we won't see one or two good storms before winter wraps up. Maybe March will end up coming in like a lion.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Question on meteograms.

    Here's our temperature meteo:

    http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/images/nam_temp.php?model=nam&site=kmsp

    Does anyone know of a site where I could hide the individual models and display just the model average? It would be convenient. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  13. @bigdaddy

    I was watching that upper level low over the dakotas dragging in these snow showers. That is why I commonted on it in the last thread.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Two items I see working against significant snows for Monday.

    The temperature profiles on the meterograms are quite warm with highs in the upper 30s. Timing of system will be everything - whether precip falls as rain or snow. In addition, there isn't much moisture for the system to utilize. QPF's are indicating no more than two tenths of liquid. Any snow that falls will be wet with close to a 10:1 snow ratio. Looking at 2 inches of snow at this point across the Twin Cities. Of course, this is all subject to change as we head closer to the weekend as more data comes in.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That should have stated up to 2 inches of snow.

      Delete
  15. I'm really liking what the 12z Euro is trending towards in the final days of Feb...big trough moving into the west, a good temp contrast setting up, and a low pressure system beginning to develop. Models have been consistant on a transition taking place, but the exact details of that transition are yet to be figured out. Feb could end up going out like a lion. Looking even further ahead (yeah, not always accurate but I thought I would throw it out there anyway), the MJO on the European model is looping right around to phases 3, 4, and 5, which will likely put us right back into the warmer than norm average. One of those phases looks like it could set up a good temp contrast close to home so it will be interesting to see how things unfold through the month of March. If anyone didn't see them, the CPC is forecasting well above average temps for March, and even above average precip.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Duane, I have been watching the MJO as well, and the GFS has no clue, the ECMWF, JMA, UKMET operational and ensembles all show the MJO moving into phase 2 and 3 which would give us a signal of below normal temps and above normal precip, I think.

      Notice the temps as it enters phase 2 and 3 for JFM.

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png


      and the Precip

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/

      interesting indeed.

      Delete
  16. Bring on the Severe weather season!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Ahh the good old 18z GFS teasing us a bit more with the system early next week. Instead of the low weakening as it moves through, it now continues to strengthen it. That, in turn, brings more moisture into the area. Trend or bogus? We'll let you all decide.

    ReplyDelete
  18. concerning Monday night's system. It currently looks like the heaviest snow will fall over SE SD and SW MN, the reason is that the moisture transport from the gulf originates from the far western region of the gulf. There is a fairly strong surface to 700mb ridge sitting over the mid to eastern gulf, so as the low moves towards us it gets cut off from the moisture transport and the low level jet is dryer. What we need to happen is that ridge over the gulf moves about 100 miles to the east. If that should happen with it's clockwise circulation it will bring more moisture over the metro. The difference is a shovelable vs plowable snow. And to honest with you I think the models are trending to the plowable solution. I will be looking hard at what that ridge does, as of now there is no precip over the south to rob our moisture feed. Stay tuned.

    ReplyDelete
  19. @Novak....your thoughts??

    ReplyDelete
  20. I'm concerned about the lack of cold air. I don't believe we will have any trouble opening-up the feed from the Gulf so moisture should be available. Hopefully the models trend to more of a colder solution, but I'm not going to hold my breath. Right now, it appears likely that this will be a mix that turns over to a wet snow. Definitely should be fun and worth watching over the weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Just got a opportunity to digest the 00z GFS and I'm impressed. I have not been this intrigued all year! Both the GFS & Euro have consistently shown signals of a massive battle of air masses next weekend over North America and it just so happens that ground zero appears to be the Plains & Midwest. I truly believe that this will be our best shot at a Block-Buster snowstorm for the whole season. Gut feeling is that this will dump 12"+ of snow somewhere in the Midwest by the end of FEB.

    Get ready for a Sh*t load of hype as we head thru next week.

    ReplyDelete
  22. First off, in regards to Monday...Novak pretty much said it all. At this point, precip type from the GFS is showing a rain/snow mix pretty much from the metro and south. I grabbed a still image from my GR Earth program with the GFS data.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/Preciptype.jpg

    During daylight I think most of the snow would accumulate on the grass with the treated roads staying mostly wet. Once the sun goes down and the temp gets closer to freezing, if it is still snowing it should be able to slush up the roads a bit. Something to monitor for those who are traveling. Now in regards to a week from this weekend...I really want this to happen. After being barely missed all stinking season, we should have to deal with at least one storm. Plus, I've been harping on this for a while that as we close out Feb. there will be a good shot at a stormy pattern. I would like to be right on this one. lol. This is the start of the system on the GFS off the ewall site.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/ewall240.gif

    Notice the 510 line and 540 line not too far apart, developing low, and it will have a wide open tap into the Gulf. This will likely change by a day or two as model runs continue, but I'm really excited to watch as things develop next week. Bring on the hype Novak! I'm ready!

    ReplyDelete
  23. just took a look at the 16/0z run of the gfs nice!! It looks like it brings more moisture up here, and the ridge backs off to the east....Yipppee!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Monday: Still not impressive on the Euro, and still not expecting much more than a couple inches around a good part of the area.

    Longer term: Still really impressed with the set up. Comparing the 00z GFS and Euro they are very similar at the 240 hr mark. Yes, this is still a long ways out, and lots can change, but this set up the models are hinting at is classic for getting us a snowstorm. Here's a look at the Euro...same time as the GFS I posted above. Open both links at the same time and click between the two. You will see how similar they are.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/Euro.gif

    Minor differences are the location of the arctic air, and the overall strength of the system. Trough position looks very similar, and both begin the development of a low. Hype hype hype...lets see about 20 more forecast model runs showing something good now. hahaha...

    ReplyDelete
  25. Is it just me or did the 0Z models just put me in a good mood. Look at the massive high (anticyclone) in the Gulf of Alaska as trough digs. May too early to get into the minutia but I really like the synoptic scale features...COME ON!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 17, 2012 at 12:27 PM

    Bring it! I love the hype and the discussion. It seems like, based on model runs, that the hype is warranted. I like how we all, including me, say that it could all change. We all know that. Let's just keep saying what it says now. I love the technical talk. Bring it!! If we can squeeze something more than slush early in the week and then add a whopper on to the end of the week--that would be a good week!

    ReplyDelete
  27. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  28. 12z Euro fully on board still with a major winter storm over the area come a week from this weekend. Track looks suspect at this point, but hey it is 10 days out and will be changing several times. It seems odd that it is so quick to move to the NE, but this one looks really impressive, and odds are someone will get a lot of snow from it. Lots to iron out yet, and it is still very possible for things to change drastically...but it is nice to have a system to watch.

    ReplyDelete
  29. What a beautiful monster that the 12z Euro develops for late next weekend. Why, WHY tease us like this?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Nowcast- There is a band of snow that is trying to get started off to our west. if it does, and gets here it will mean that the last three out of four days has experianced at least a trace or more of snow.

    Sounds like last winter, doesn't it?

    ReplyDelete
  31. It will be interesting to see what the 0z model runs look like for the Monday night system. All the foreign models from the 12z runs show a negative tilt to the trough, but the us models show a neutral to positive look. Which will prevail?? Hard to tell, stay tuned, as the 12z ECMWF suggest somewhere in MN we could see 3-5" or 2-4" depending on temps.

    ReplyDelete
  32. As for the end of the 10 day period, I am not sold on what the ECMWF is showing.

    240 operational

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    the 240 ensemble

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    Time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
  33. opps I forgot the above images from Americanwx

    ReplyDelete
  34. officialy here there has been a trace of snow three out of the past four days. However, I do not think it has reached the Airport yet to be official...

    ReplyDelete
  35. @bemaki,can I ask why your so thrilled about a trace of snow,exactly what can you do with a trace of snow,look around everything is brown,trace+trace+trace=brown

    ReplyDelete
  36. I am not such that I am thrilled about a trace of snw, I am content with the fact that there has been accumulations of a trace or more at the airport three out of the last four days. This may seem not that much, but it does mean that there has been a change in patterning, and therefore signifies a bigger change ahead. The simple consistancy means that a big snowstorm is now in the cards. Remember last winter? how consistant the snow was, with a trace or more almost everyday? That is what I am hoping for: a late season appearance of a strong winter.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Well the first to jump on board with numbers for Mondays 'event'is our good friend Accuweather,their total is 4.5"(which if verifys will be the greatest this winter),but I'm sure the next time I look at it it will say .9.Also PD has chimed in with his prediction for Monday,depending on where you read in his blog he says we will see "coating to 2in".But I have a problem with PD's prediction all long when reading his blogs day in and day out,he always says in there the euro model is the most reliable/consistent,but he is basing his prediction for Monday on the current NAM model,which we all know will change at least a half dozen times between now and then,he sames to always contrdict himself,and yet I still read his blog,stupid me!

    ReplyDelete
  38. Well that didnt take long,Accuweather down to 2.4 for Monday now,NWS has 1-3" going for Monday......but what has gotten me really excited is the last paragraph of this mornings discussion page for our CWA,states as follows:'way down the road...200-240 hours looks quite active.GFS/ECMWF showing potential for an intense mid-latitude cyclone at the end of this month.The 17 12z and 18 00z ECMWF has been especially entertaining with a BLIZZARD in the plains and HEAVY SNOW potential in the forecast area.Overall just looks like the next two weeks is the best weve seen in terms of snow potential this whole winter",I'm hooked now and I could ensure you Plymouth weather lover is to after he reads that,Duane I know you have been calling this for awhile,pretty nice to hear it come out of NWS as well,now we just need for it to not disappear or go south of team,fingers are crossed.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Forgot KSTP(Jonathan Yuhas) calling for 1-2" with isolated 3+" amounts.

    ReplyDelete
  40. TAke a look at the weather story today if you have time...
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=mpx

    ReplyDelete
  41. That display is the perfect example as to how frustrating it can be to forecast. Looking at the 12z NAM it appears as though it is even further to the NW with the surface low, taking it pretty much over the Fargo area. Some interesting items to note with it though. Its forecast run brings through the initial area of precip wrapping around the low, and moving to the northeast through the metro and into WI. It is still fairly fast moving and only favors a couple hours of snow.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/12zNAM15z.png

    What caught my eye with the NAM was this second area of moisture that moves up across far SE MN and into SW and central WI. Previous runs lit this second line up further to the east, and now it is back further west. It isn't quite to the metro yet, but it is getting there.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/12zNAM.png

    With as poorly as the NAM has performed with the last few systems, I'm not sure how believable it is. There is still another day or two of model runs with it, so we will see how things pan out. As far as the GFS goes...this model is seriously frustrating. It keeps increasing the amount of moisture the system will have with it, with the Euro not nearly as aggressive. While this trend has been consistent with the GFS, can we believe it? I can recall a couple systems this year that it kept increasing the strength just to have it come way back down the day before the event. If the GFS happens to be correct, then we would be seeing advisory snows. I am not sold yet...not until I see the foreign models come around to it too. But, I anxiously await the 12z run.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 18, 2012 at 3:00 PM

    Holy Smokes! @Big Daddy, you are right. I am revved now! I usually look at each of the National Weather Service discussions, but I checked out this site first! The word blizzard--are they serious?? This is something I will look forward to for the rest of February! I know this can change, but they have mentioned it a couple of times in their discussions now so there is some, even small, consistency! Bring it, bring it, bring it! Maybe get on the 4" side for Monday/Monday night and then bring on the small Clipper and then the whopper. B....r...i...n....g I...t...!!! I am going to drive my wife nuts!!

    ReplyDelete
  43. Yet not a mention of any large storm for later in the 7 day period in this afternoon's AFD? (My focus MSP and La Crosse/SE MN). All I see are mentions of a northwest flow! What am I missing?

    ReplyDelete
  44. I figured this was going to be the case all winter, then WHAM! this happens. Someone a while back said that things would stay quiet then pick up later in the season. Who was it? I give them credit right now...

    ReplyDelete
  45. the NWS just updated their display...
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=mpx

    ReplyDelete
  46. @bemaki How do you find those NWS "story" graphics? Is it a link off a certain page?

    ReplyDelete
  47. Bill: it's on their home page under weather story

    ReplyDelete
  48. Bill:right under the time,says weather story,just click it

    ReplyDelete
  49. Accuweather is like the damn GFS,can't make up its mind and always changing,accuweather is back up for Mondays event,now calling for 3.8.........you got to love Accuweather's already crazy forecast for next weekend,showers and thunderstorms with a high of 40 next Sunday,turning to ice at night then a cool 6.1 inches of snow on Monday,c'mon really are we suppose to believe this will happen as they say,if so,hell of a storm!

    ReplyDelete
  50. You can find it directly off the Twin cities home page. If you scroll down you should see it.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Here is my take on Monday's system. First of all looking at 5 different models I can't find where two of them agree. Where I can find agreement between the GFS and ECMWF is that there is good moisture fetch out of the gulf at 925mb, but when you look at the 850 and 700mb maps, even though they show good saturation, at those levels the winds are coming out of Texas, in other words missing the moisture out of the gulf, so the saturation at 850-700mb could be caused by mixing. AS this storm approaches I have no doubt that that SW MN will see accumulating snows, however as we go forward from there I feel the base of the surface trough will suck up most of the low level moisture as it sets up over the IA/MO and drop most of the snow over the Quad cities to northern IL. Right now I would have to say 1-1.5 at MSP. The wild card in this whole thing is what will happen after the Mid Atlantic storm moves out to sea. We could see huge changes in the modeling Sunday night or Monday morning. Stay tuned.

    ReplyDelete
  52. I realize this is an 18z run, and it is the GFS, but could a system look any prettier on the forecast models than this? If THAT were to happen, we would probably be looking at 1 inch/hour snow rates for a good 8-12 hours. I hope this particular look continues, because it is picture perfect. 00z runs are starting to come in, so here's hoping to more consistency.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/gfsGL_0_prec_204.gif

    ReplyDelete
  53. Duane-

    Both the GFS and the ECMWF show this system, and there is becoming more run-to-run consistancy here. I give a 25% chance at this point of happening, considering the sole factor of time.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Let me introduce you guys to a model that I have recently discovered. It is known as the ETA. I do not know how accurate it is, we can judge it later. But here is the link:

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_prcp&loop=1

    ReplyDelete
  55. @ Duane I know this is late but it's my first look at it. The 18/0z ECMWF ensembles (to everyone the, ECMWF ensemble mean is made of up from the mean of 51 members, this far out this is quite impressive). Notice how the 18z GFS operational just about splits the ECMWF operational and the ensemble. Now I'm starting to by into something big happening close to home.

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA192gif0218.gif

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS216gif0218.gif

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240gif0218.gif

    remember if your using Fire Fox for a browser just highlight the link, right click and chose open link.

    Interesting indeed.

    ReplyDelete
  56. for monday it looks like the NAM and the GFS have come around to the ECMWF idea. What I think will happen is that sw MN and maybe west central MN will see some accumulating snow, but as the snow moves to the metro it will split, with more snow to the north of us and to the south, say around the quad cities area. Call it a buzz kill if you wish, but that's my best guess at this time. Hope I wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  57. I figured the GFS was being too aggressive with the Monday system and would eventually come around to the Euro. It is great news that pretty much all the models have a large storm very close to home, but still several details to work out. Remember, this is still a week away so changes can still happen. I am really loving the consistency of something blowing up. If the Euro can crank up the system again on tonight's run, I imagine it will be discussed more so by the weather service offices. Just another day or two and I'll be able to load this data into Bufkit to get a better look at the finer details of things. GEM and Euro should be coming down shortly!

    ReplyDelete
  58. Well one thing has been consistent among the Euro, GFS, and GEM, and that is some type of storm system will develop and move close to home. The GFS looks perfect for a widespread heavy snow event across Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Euro, however favors far northern MN over into the UP of Michigan, with the GEM closer to the Euro's look. For what it is worth, all of the models have been bouncing around on how the system will track so there is still a lot to figure out. Anytime you see systems this far out they are going to bounce everywhere until finally they get all of their ducks in a row. The storm itself is looking more and more likely. Strength and track aren't even close to being determined, and it would be somewhat silly to try to nail it down exact this far out. Lots of model runs to go yet...

    ReplyDelete
  59. dang it I hate it when I can't sleep, got up to this...from the NWS at MPX..."THERE IS DEFINITELY
    A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL NEED AN ADVISORY IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND
    CENTRAL MN WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR 3-5" SNOW. IT`LL BE MORE LIKE
    1-3" IN EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...SO WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO
    CUT THE BOLOGNA WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO." LOL

    I still don't agree with that, but it looks like the east coast storm could be a little further north than advertised, I still haven't decided how that would effect us for Monday night.

    ReplyDelete
  60. wait a minute, I have always said west central MN..but I still wonder if we can get moisture up here at 850mb, maybe the se ridge has sifted slightly east.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Bill have you seen the new forecast that MPR puts out on their weather page,looks to me they are now not following the official NWS forecast,they are also putting out a 10 day package instead of the traditional 7 day..........and if you read it today which was updated at 9am they are calling for 6 inches of snow next saturday/sunday

    ReplyDelete
  62. @Big Daddy Based on the URL: http://www.wunderground.com/auto/mpr/MN/Twin_Cities.html, it looks like they're picking up Weather Underground's forecast. Still seems odd that they would hitch their forecast in that manner. You have to know that MPR's own weather peeps would never make such predictions. Strange, indeed. I may inquire about that one!

    ReplyDelete
  63. Between now & next Monday, GFS computer model predicts 14"-20"+ of snowfall for MSP & RST metro areas. A dream? Perhaps, but it certainly looks much more active for snow lovers. It is not often that I would make a crazy statement like this, especially this far out, but here it goes...

    ...2 weeks from now, somewhere in MN will have well over 12" of snow on the ground and it could be a rather large piece of real estate. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if some localized areas of the Upper Midwest accumulate 16"-18"+ of snow over the next couple of weeks. I love the fact that all medium range computer models keep a large reservoir of Arctic air near and just north of the border. This provides the opportunity for disturbances to tap cold air and expedite snow development. As you all know, we simply have not had this set-up over the last several months. Just as important, since we are headed into late FEB & early MAR, the Gulf naturally opens-up more and moisture will be able to flow further north than when compared to DEC/JAN. Definitely a nice set-up if you like snow.

    Of course, the million dollar question is if the MSP metro will participate in the fun. This can NOT be determined at this time, but it certainly looks promising. Hopefully this last sentence will keep 'Crabby Anonymous' at bay.

    ReplyDelete
  64. As far as Monday & TUE am are concerned, we need to be cautious since a mix will likely cut into our snow totals. Meanwhile, there is no true Arctic air to tap with this storm and that keeps me pessimistic. Good news is that the bulk of the precip. over eastern MN will fall during the evening/overnight hours. Also, Jet structure looks good with divergence aloft across the Upper Midwest. Moisture fetch is there and mid-level temps are borderline, but should be just cold enough for snow production overnight.

    Gut feeling is that totals will be rather haphazard with some locations of SE MN picking-up several inches of heavy wet snow while others receive more of a mix and only a coating to an inch of snow. MSP metro has busted all year long and why would this storm be any different? I'm going to stick with the status-quo this year and say that MSP will only get 1" of so while areas SE & NW of the metro receive 2"-5" of snow. In other words, eastern Dakotas & nw MN will experience a band of accumulating along with se MN, ne IA & WI. In the middle, the MSP metro will receive less & snow fanatics will be pissed-off again & call us forecasters losers. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  65. Love you too Novak,actually I thought I was being kind and not mentioning how you agreed with Dave Dahl the other day about how our commute would be really bad with that late afternoon snow/sleet that was going to muck up the roadways,I have to tell you those puddles I dodged on my way home were tough(the road spray was out of control).BTW why no mention of the 3 predictions I gave you for this pass week,snow on Monday was .3(less then a inch),1 above last Sat.(stayed above zero),and 40+ TH/FRI(at least one 40)all 3 correct and yet I don't know what I'm talking about,right?Now we have my prediction of 6+ snowfall for MSP starting tommorrow,we'll see right. But tell me with that bold statement of all that snowcover is difficult then nailing a forecast for a paricular location like MSP,do you know the upper midwest goes from eastern Montana,the Dakotas,Minnesota,and half of Wisconsin,with that kind of broad brushing and that much real state sure someone can be buried,you would make a great TV met.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Per Jonathan Yuhas on the KSTP weather blog: "We may have a storm system on Sunday February 26th bringing rain and snow to southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities and accumulating snow to northern Minnesota then windy and colder all areas Monday February 27th."

    ReplyDelete
  67. 12Z GFS continuing the recent trend of 6+ inches near Red Wing, Lake City and Rochester areas. REALLY hope that continues.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=MPX

    Anyone have input to pump me up or put me down on it? (Hoping for as much snow as possible)

    ReplyDelete
  68. @at mark-

    Here is somthing to keep you on your toes-

    There appears to be a pattern emerging here that was similar to last winter's: We will have the ideal of many days with at least a trace, and perhaps we can fit a huge snowstrom before spring comes.

    I now give a probabillity of that blockbuster snow niine to ten days out a 30% chance, considering time and model consistancy.

    ReplyDelete
  69. @Novak best wishes on your crazy statement,I for one are pulling for what you said to happen at MSP,please..........please..........please..........please,also can I get a side of artic air to go with that so it sticks around for a while.

    ReplyDelete
  70. You know what would be hilarious? If all of the models, particularly the GFS, end up underestimating what could happen in the next few weeks and we get 35 inches of snow between now and mid-March. And then I'll take a gig in stand-up comedy.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 19, 2012 at 10:01 PM

    Bill,I love that. I dream of 35 inches in the next couple of weeks. Let's start with about 2-3 inches on Monday, a couple of inches scattered throughout this week and then get nailed Sunday/Monday of next week. And it is still only February. Bring it. B...r...i...n...g I...t...!!

    ReplyDelete
  72. @Bill so what your saying is weather underground is predicting 10 inches of snow over the next 10 days for MSP,and this forecast leads into the conservative forecasting of one Paul Huttner,very odd.Even crazier forecast then accuweather puts out

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not sure one has to do with the other. I suspect that MPR wants people to be able to access forecasts of the various cities in MN, and that this is one way to do it.

      Delete
  73. Alright, since Monday is the first system of some interest, we'll see if we can hammer out most of the details. Most of the shorter range models are in fairly good agreement that the precip should be making its way into the Twin Cities around the 6pm hour (one of them is as late as 9pm, but the majority show western edge of the metro around 6.) The NAM continues to show a mixing potential at the onset of the system moving in, with a fairly quick change over to snow after things start. If the models are correct, by 9pm the dominate precip type should be snow. Keep in mind that heavier rates of precip will cool things faster, and maybe change things over more quickly. I still like 1-3 for the Twin Cities, with far western/northwestern MN seeing the most. Areas east of the I-35 corridor look like they have the best chance at seeing mostly snow, with around a quarter inch of liquid. Ratios will be low, so the 1-3 inches works for this area too. Further NW (Alexandria, Fergus Falls, etc) will probably see all snow with maybe slightly better ratios to work with...so 3-5 seems legit there. 12z runs could certainly throw a wrench in everything, but that's my opinion for now. Models still showing late weekend system, but continue to struggle on the exact timing and placement of the low. Models are even pointing towards a couple other waves of snow coming through during the week, but the differences are noticeable in those as well.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Dave Dahl just tweeted that 3-4 inches of snow is his new thinking for tonight...

    ReplyDelete
  75. Is the possible storm for late in this weekend or early next week still on the maps? Not hearing anything....

    ReplyDelete
  76. I think the strengthening of tonight's storm has kind of moved everybody back to the present. There are many chances for light snow in the next 7-10 days, so I would expect the snow discussion will move forward in a more day-to-day fashion over the next week or so.

    ReplyDelete
  77. The weekend system is still there but taking on a slightly different shape. More of a CO hook versus a deep Southwest bomb. Still the set-up remains with healthy snows a real possibilty. Right now it does not look like quite the blizzard the weekend runs showed but that could change again as well. A fun week. 2-3" for metro tonight, some spots on Eastside up to 4"

    ReplyDelete
  78. looking at three different short range models that get updated hourly, the RUC Backup (a 24hr model), the Rapid Refresh (18hrs) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (15hrs). All three are sowing a slug of warm air from 925 mb up to close to 850 mb. AS this thing moves through, 850mb temps look to be at -2 or -3 C at best, 925mb above freezing for most of southern MN. If that holds expect no more than 1" here in the metro, and that could be generous...sorry but that's what I'm seeing.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Just set up a new thread for tracking tonight's event.

    ReplyDelete
  80. So AB, let me get this straight...there's so much snow in the short term forecast that folks aren't talking much about anything other than the most recent? I LOVE that we have this problem right now!

    Better late than never, right?!

    ReplyDelete
  81. Big diff between saying "so much snow" and many days with a chance of lt snow. Be careful not to put words in other people's posts!

    ReplyDelete