If a nation once turned its lonely eyes to Joe DiMaggio, then a snow-starved metro area turns its wishful eyes to Tuesday and Wednesday, when the latest possibility of significant snow seems to exist. While Sunday’s storm is about to take its expected weak at bat (think Drew Butera), the midweek storm that sits in the dugout has shown indications – at least to some forecasters – of having some Ruthian potential.
Cue up the national anthem fellas and let’s start keeping score.
|Portion of forecast discussion page from the NWS in Chanhassen.|
|This image was issued by The Weather Channel at 3:45 p.m. Saturday. The use of the "accumulation potential" wording is unusual for this year.|
Lets just hope the Tue-Wed event doesnt pull a Mauer -- All-Star capability and strong history only to step up and either whiff or a hit weak groundout to second base for a double play rally-killer.ReplyDelete
Tue-Wed "has potential", "looks like a real gamer", "can be the spark this team needs" -- lets see how it does under the lights in a nationally televised game.
I love/hate your analogy DDwx!ReplyDelete
Subtle yet extremely important discrepancies between the American vs. European models on this one, and you know which team I'm siding with.ReplyDelete
All models agree that a classic Winter Storm will pull out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Upper Midwest. Most Obvious difference between the models is that the NAM/GFS tracks the surface & mid-level lows a bit further north on a more E/NE orientation while the Euros track these features almost straight east. This produces about a 100 to 150 mile N/S difference on where these features eventually end up on Wednesday. Doesn't sound like much, but it is HUGE!
UKMET/ECMWF keep nearly all of the precip. over MSP all snow while the NAM/GFS factors-in periods of a mix which would keep totals down when compared to the Euros.
I'm going to side with the Europeans on this one and assume that the surface low will track nearly straight east from GRI to DSM to MKE. This is a perfect track for heavy snows over so. 1/2 of MN including the MSP metro. My reasoning for this is two fold. First, the GFS/NAM suck ass. Second, I don't like how these models stack the surface, mid and upper level features so quickly. The features already look too dysfunctional by TUE pm and the trough has not even turned negatively tilted yet.
Gut feeling at this point is that heavy snow axis will extend from near HON to MSP to GRB. I would not be surprised to see a bit of a mix approaching the southern MN during this event. It is still too early to throw out totals, but I'm confident that someone in or near the MSP metro (STC?) will receive 12"+ of powder by WED evening.
I would bet that watches will be hoisted by the NWS for much of MN/WI by Sunday evening. Unfortunately, this storm is still a good 72 hours away, and that is a lifetime this winter season.
Needless to say, I'm excited to watch this monster evolve.
I'm guessing the "big event" is going to be another non-event! :)ReplyDelete
I find it interesting that Paul D, and Yuhas are going with the tuesday storm moving north, while most others are saying central. A little heartburn over sounding the early alarm for Sundays storm? Or are they on to something? Such mavericks those two...ReplyDelete
Agree. I'd always gotten the impression that KSTP (well, at least Dave Dahl and perhaps the others) was a faithful follower of the European, which I think was presenting a "less-northern" solution. Will be interesting to see if Yuhas changes his thinking this evening.Delete
A great kiss could feel fantasatic,but I wouldn't want one from a dry tongue maverick named Paul Douglas....I know not weather related but I couldn't resist.ReplyDelete
But seriously how can one forecast a dry tongue 72 hours in advance?
Accuweather has 4.6 inches of snow for Monday night alone with a storm total of 7.5 and wunderground has 10 inch total for northern hennipen county,just to give you an idea what the national folks are thinking.ReplyDelete
Novak good to hear your perspective.and I want to believe you so bad,but we have been heartbroken before have we not? what looks good days away fizzles in the spotlight.ReplyDelete
A few mets are saying northern mn again for Tuesday,like Yuhas at KSTP blog(but the in house disagreement contiues with Hammer tweeting his heavy snow comment)and PD's sidekick Todd Nelson has wintry mix Tuesday changing to all rain,saying northern mn gets the jackpot again on the startribune weather blog page,so doesn't he work for PD who tweeted 3-6+?.........come guys can't we all get on the same page especially if your from the same outlet,the message should be consistent from the same outlet not erratic and conflicting like the weather models
I sense there's sometimes a bit of a disconnect between how forecasters view the question of "being on the same page" vs. how viewers think (and how TV commercials like to present things -- i.e., the team). I've talked to a few forecasters who feel if it's on them, they want to present what THEY think... i.e., it's their reputation at stake. It's easy to understand that thinking. But it's also easy to understand the confusion a viewer/blog reader can have. It's a crazy world.Delete
18z GFS has dropped Sunday's system a bit, and I mean a bit, further south, it's now showing 6-8 inches in Western Sterns county. Could the northern metro be in for a bit of a surprise?? Mr Yuhas at KSTP is calling for 1-2" north metro. I can see a possibility of 2-4".ReplyDelete
1-2" northern metro will be a huge bust. This has major winter storm written all over it. These PV stretching events ALWAYS occlude and and deepen faster...stalling out with the warm front not lifting nearly as far N. Only guidance to handle this has been the ECMWF. 18Z GFS took a big stem towards that. All snow metro area the entire event.ReplyDelete
So americanwx I'm assuming your talking about tommorrrow with last post,how much snow are u calling for for the metro tommorrowReplyDelete
My mistake, I thought the discussion was on the big storm.ReplyDelete
Just looking real quick, moisture along the warm front will be lacking. Amongst the guidance, the GFS stalls the northward lifting of the low level front the least with the surface low tracking southward along it. Current mesoanalysis and WV suggest the PV max ejecting WY is farther N than SREF/GFS suggest. ECMWF/NAM lift the N farther northward and track the low along that front, not to mention the EC partially includes the PV max as it ejects WY. Frontogenesis across southern metro seems to be relatively elevated and lacking moisture, so banding/convective elements along the front seem unlikely. I would hegde drier and say a trace to 0.5" across the N and a trace if anything southern metro.ReplyDelete
Just looking real quick, moisture along the warm front will be lacking. Amongst the guidance, the GFS stalls the northward lifting of the low level front the least with the surface low tracking southward along it. Current mesoanalysis and WV suggest the PV max ejecting WY is farther N than SREF/GFS suggest. ECMWF/NAM lift the front farther northward and track the low along that front, not to mention the EC partially occludes the PV max as it ejects WY. Frontogenesis across the metro seems to be relatively elevated and lacking moisture, so banding/convective elements along the front seem unlikely not to mention the front lifts north across the area relatively quickly. I would hegde drier and say a trace to 0.5" across the N and a trace if anything southern metro.ReplyDelete
I know everyone likes to talk amounts, but what's everyone's guess on when the storm will begin (for those of us travelling from Brainerd back to the Cities tomorrow)?ReplyDelete
Do I have some time to get some ice fishing in, or should I hit plan to hit the road first thing?
God I frickin' love the GFS. The 18z run now dumps 30"+ of snow on MSP Tue/Wed. Meanwhile, it shows 2"+/hour snowfall late Tue afternoon into the evening. It cranks-out 16"-18" of snow between 4pm & midnight Tuesday. If I'm Yuhas, Nelson & Douglas, my head would be spinning & I would be totally backpedaling. It will be interesting if they flip-flop and change their tune later this evening into Sunday.ReplyDelete
You see, this is why the GFS/NAM sucks ass. You simply can't trust these 2 models and their absurd solutions right now. I will be going to bed tonight with Euro right by my side.
Here is what i figure with the Tues/Wed. storm:ReplyDelete
By all means, it will be a blockbuster. Now, some of you may say that it is too early, BUT consider: There has been a HUGE anomaly developing through the winter: The fact that a storm has NOT hit here adds to it.
As these recent storms have fired and missed, it is only a matter of time. Since these storms have been fireing recently, it only adds to the anomaly.
I would like to try out somthing here. I will attempt to create an anomaly index, based on circumstances that happen. I will change and adust as I go, and I will take some suggestions. In fact, they are encouraged. So let me try:
Snowy last winter: -50
Lack of snow: +20
Lack of precipatation: +40
Storms missing: +15
Lack of storms this winter: +40
Model correlation: +20
TOTAL ANOMALY: +85
Remember, this is experimental. I am open to suggestions.
Novak what is your current thinking for us Rochester peeps if we stick with the Euro?ReplyDelete
I can almost guarantee this will be a big storm for the metro. My reasoning is unscientific, but it usually performs better than the models. My husband is supposed to leave for Florida on Wednesday morning, and I will be here alone with our 4 and 2 year old sons. Therefore we will have a giant storm. Never fails.ReplyDelete
@americanwx Appreciate the input, but if you can articulate your thoughts in more layman's terms, I think most of us would appreciate it. This site functions as a link between the general public consumer and the professional met. As you know, there are other sites where it's all-technical; this is not one.ReplyDelete
@Julie Thanks for joining the party, and your less scientific reasoning may still be predictive.
Paul Douglas is now tweeting more about the potential storm. "Just updated Star Tribune blog with latest thoughts on potential Snowpocalypse. Over 1 foot of snow possible much of MN"ReplyDelete
Figures, I am heading west on Wednesday (via Des Moines)
I would like to join in the Murphy's Law "what can go wrong will go wrong" predictions. My planned final ski day of the winter is tomorrow. I spent almost 4 months waiting and waiting for fresh powder, so hanging up my skis would provide Mother Nature the perfect opportunity to stick it to me! Looks like I may have to wait another week or two to pull out my running shoes!ReplyDelete
The GFS is living up to its motto, "If you can't beat them, join them." ok, at least trend towards them.ReplyDelete
Much like AB, I put my snowmobiles up the other day and while doing so, mentioned "well this almost guarantees a big storm, now that I finally gave up and put 'em away..."ReplyDelete
I have a 100 mile drive to broadcast some high school basketball for WCMP radio out of Pine City on Tuesday. I think it's going to be quite the adventure getting to and from Webster, WI.
There's something wrong with the way things are communicated here: Paul Douglas tweets: "Just updated Star Tribune blog with latest thoughts on potential Snowpocalypse. Over 1 foot of snow possible much of MN." Then when you get to the blog and start reading the details, it says this: "Over a foot for central Minnesota (and the metro area?) Not out of the question. I'd put the odds (with what we know and the latest trends) at 1 in 3." So if you just read the tweet, you're thinking a foot of snow. But when you read the details, you learn there's a 33% of that happening. Why is it so hard to communicate weather info to the public?ReplyDelete
Further to the above, now Paul Douglas says this in his latest blog update: "Right now I think most of the metro will pick up 4-6" of snow." Now compare that to his original tweet. Is that not misleading?Delete
I can't take it anymore. If this happens on tues, wed then I will go crazy. 30+ inches?? Are you kidding me. We are only 3 days away. This has to happen! All my bringing is working. BRING IT!!!ReplyDelete
Alright, we get it, you like snow. But do you have any IDEA what 30" of snow can do to an area? Even though 30" is highly, highly unlikely, consider what has happened this winter. Every single snow forecast has busted. The public has no confidence in the forecasting, and even weather fans are giving up. We are setting ourselves up for a scenario similar to the Armistice Day Blizzard here. If we pick up that kind of snow, people are going to get hurt. Willing that kind of snow fall would be like a storm chaser publicly hoping a tornado comes in and wrecks a town.Delete
Let's keep things in perspective here people. A lot of people read this blog and might get inaccurate ideas about us.
What is "much"? Considering the Twin Cities and their 11-county metro comprise less than 10% of the state as a whole, and considering everywhere St. Cloud north could see that foot, I calculate that upwards of 1/2-2/3 of the state could see a foot or more of snow by Wednesday night. No, I wouldn't call that misleading.ReplyDelete
The issue here is the same one I bring up all the time: people in the Twin Cities tend to forget that there is life beyond the loop. The local mets are NOT immune to this. I'm 20 miles from the loop, yet I'm closer to the National Weather Service offices than 95% of people inside the loop. Still, there have been many times when we've seen 6+ inches out here in Carver County and on the news they talk about the "trace" of snow the metro area saw. I tend to just roll my eyes at this point, but all in all, everybody needs to remember that in the grand scheme of regional forecasting, the Twin Cities metro is actually very very small.
I think PD should have said "much of the state north of metro will get a foot." Or maybe "greater Minnesota at risk for foot or more." The fact is that a number of people do tend think of the Twin Cities area as "Minnesota" and PD, unlike Paul Huttner, tends to be more Twin Cities-focused.Delete
A friend called tonight to say she heard MSP would get a foot. I asked where she heard that. She said she saw a Paul Douglas tweet. So whatever causes go into that confusion is real and I think forecasters have to be clear and recognize that this is a metro-centric place.
I hardly ever reply to anonymous anything but I couldn't help at least addressing one thing from anonymous @5:00 am. Comparing my desire to a storm chaser hoping for a tornado to wreck a town is not even fair. Any kind of weather can cause deaths. I love weather extremes due to the fascinations with the power of the uncontollable and the "somewhat" unpredictable. Heat, cold, severe, drought, rain, snow, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods......all cause death and destruction. Sorry, but me hoping for a big snowstorm has as much risk to anyone as me sending guests home from my house on a Saturday night.ReplyDelete
I know that 30+ is highly unlikely. I was here during the Halloween Blizzard. Those are memories I will never forget. The chance for a repeat would rock it.
I love the trend south, more in line with the Euro. A little more south and then hold.....perfect.
You didn't address the point of my message. People have no confidence with the winter weather forecasts any more this season. This makes them incredibly unprepared for "the big one" (and we all know it IS coming). 30" of snow last year at this time? Sure, people are sick of snowblowing, but they're ready for it. If we would get a wallop of 30" of snow this week, I believe it will be a serious situation.Delete
Storm Chasers love tornadoes too, and so do I, but I think most of them know when to back off and keep it light (at least publicly). If a tornado ends up killing a bunch of people, how much of an *ss would that individual look if they were willing and praying for one to come? That's the food for thought I was going for. I didn't mean it to be personal. It's something for all of us to think about.
Perhaps a rhetorical question: How does one go upon warning the public of such an event after the busted forecasts of this year?
@Anonymous As to how the public gets warned about a major event... well, I think we saw that this morning with the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch 56 hours in advance of expected onset. That is simply hard to ignore, even with all of the busted forecasts this year.Delete
I also think there's a major difference in the impact of essentially "random" tornadoes and a general widespread, if paralyzing, snowstorm. Save for the exception of people with unexpected medical emergencies, I think you can almost argue that a crippling storm has some good. It creates goodwill among neighbors who become more visible to each other and often help each other. And the sheer awe that massive amounts of snow can create can be inspiring in a way... even if some people don't particularly like it.
Those are my thoughts anyway... but your concerns are well taken.
Bill, thank you for the additional insight and for this blog that welcomes discussion. I'm all up for a foot of snow ... let's just hope everyone heeds the warnings. That's all we can hope.Delete
I concur with Plymouth Weather Lover,BRING IT,BRING IT ALL,bring everything mother natures got,20 30 40 inches,bring an entire winters worth of snow in one storm,now I know better and it won't happen,but as PD alluded to there is a 1 in 3 chance that this could be huge,what's wrong with a Halloween type storm,we survived that one and we will survive this one,watch the forecasts,pay attention to the radio,surf the web,follow twitter/facebook,follow along on this blog,there are many avenues to warn and keep the public informed,no one here wats any deaths,just be freakin smart if a major storm is blowing into town stay off the roads,clean your driveway with a shovel or snowblower and if your neighbor needs help help them out,we snow have been disappointed far too long this winter,let us have our moment in the sun and God damn it if its 30 inches then enjoy it,the heat and humidity will be here before you know it for all those that enjoy that weather and the severe weather will follow it if you enjoy that weather so let us snowlovers enjoy whatever inches are coming our way without having to here the gloom and doom of it.ReplyDelete
The only red flag I can see with this storm, at this juncture, is the warm air fetch. This monster appears to have everything needed, good jet structure, strong mid-level dynamics, low lever jet streaming into so. MN & copious amounts of Gulf Moisture to work with. However, I would like to see more cold air in place. There is still potential for warm air to get wrapped into this storm later in day Tuesday and this would cut down snow totals. If we had a stubborn dome of Arctic Air overhead, I would feel better about this situation. It will be interesting to see if the snowpack over Iowa helps us at all and keeps the warm air/front a bit further south than models depict. Otherwise this Winter Storm appears to be the real deal.ReplyDelete
PD's newest update has his confidence growing,calling for an upgrade to a warning and saying 6-12+ inches is growing,God I wish the GFS verifies,I know we love to hate you,but 18-24 inches sure would be nice!!! SEND IT!!!ReplyDelete
NWS with the Winter Storm watch:ReplyDelete
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1005 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
.A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL... CENTRAL...
SOUTH CENTRAL... AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY MORNING... AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE STORM WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG OR NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY... AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW ULM
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITES METRO AREA TO RED WING... WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR A TIME NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. SNOWFALL RATES OF
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING... PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CANBY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF A FOOT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY... AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE IS NOT YET CERTAIN. IF
THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER NORTH... THEN A GREATER AMOUNT OF SLEET
AND/OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD THE STORM TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK... THEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...
MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...
REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...
RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...
BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA
1005 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SLEET AND RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA.
* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TEN INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* OTHER IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCUR. GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW... WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ALREADY POOR TRAVEL
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
This is not a good deal. From the boys/gals at the HPC. It would be one thing to have a crippling snow storm, but ice is a real bad deal...Keep in mind the blue line is a 10-39% of a 1/4" of ice or better, the green 40-69%, at least that is the way I read it.ReplyDelete
I read it that way as well. Still, it's so rare for this part of the country to receive such accumulating ice. A tenth of an inch, maybe, but a quarter inch is the kind of stuff you usually see in Texas/OK and the east coast.Delete
Paul Douglas is warning people to not hedge bets yet. A shift of only 20-30 miles could be the difference between a foot and 2-4 inches. That could be very problematic in forecasting. Obviously a shift north that slight would be almost impossible to determine until it's happening.ReplyDelete
A shift north puts us into the ice zone. We would end up with a nasty ice storm if that happened. Hope the storm stays as is for now
Interesting how some NWS forecasts give specific amounts in their forecasts this far out. Example--forecast for Marshall calls for 19 inches! Not even a range given. Gutsy! I hope that comes straight here after their dumping!ReplyDelete
That's bizarre is what that is! How they can: 1) call for specific predictions, and 2) call for that large of a number, is just crazy. Sounds Accuweather-esque to me. I wonder how mets at the adjacent NWS offices feel about that.Delete
It is likely from the deterministic forecast grids. You'll get a specific value, just like you get a specific temperature and specific wind speed. NWS mets will give broader ranges in narrative information (like the text in a winter storm watch/warning). Research also shows people will naturally build a range around the number given (for example, given a forecast high of 50 people will naturally assume that means within a couple of degrees [48-52]).Delete
The National Weather Service uses point forecasts when it comes to outputting a forecast for a specific area. Maybe this would explain how they come to some of these numbers in their predictions?ReplyDelete
More here - http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/webweather/pinpoint_max.htm
Marshall pinpoint (forecast) now at 14 inches. What does that mean?ReplyDelete
Duluth NWS discussion just stated that all of the models have shifted a bit north. Uh oh.ReplyDelete
Uh oh is right,Euro jogged to the north now inline with GFS tracking across the Iowa border,model snowfall still near or greater then a foot for MSP,but anymore shift north and totals come down and more mixed precip can be a issue,I don't want a slop storm I want a snowstorm.ReplyDelete
The 18Z NAM shifted the heaviest snowfall south to over the metro when compared to the 12Z.ReplyDelete
the 18z gfs and its ensembles also have taken the storm about 50 miles further south. with the 06 and 18z runs its usually they are onto something or on something.ReplyDelete
Ok I am locked and loaded and ready to go, just waiting for the overnight run of the Euro. After spending most of the afternoon working on snowfall amounts, I was humbled on how close the final result was to the NWS weather story they posted at 508 pm.. I as well have a widespread 8-11" for the metro. I also have Minnesota broken down by state from Wadena to Hinkley and points south including the west central portion of WI that falls into MPX's area. If any one wants to see it, I will happy to type it in and let everyone read it. It will just take me awhile is all.ReplyDelete
Don't believe the NAM and the GFS,according to Novak they suck ass,as much as you want to believe their numbersReplyDelete
@Randyinchamplain send what you got would love to see it,where's Duane?Duane your awfully quiet for such a big storm coming,like to hear your perspectiveReplyDelete
ok give me about a hour as will be working on other things at the same time thanksDelete
I'll put out my early guesses, just for the heck of it, sense this is what a lot of people come here for. Just to see the guesses on what we're thinking and don't take them to seiriouslyReplyDelete
St. Cloud- Somewhere in the 18-20 inch Range
Northern Metro (Elk River, Blaine) 16-18
Southern Metro (Burnsville, Lakeville) 10-14
Red Wing 8-12
MN/IW Border (Fairmont, Albert Lea, Austin) 2-5
Honestly think somewhere from North Metro to St. Cloud gets over 2 feet of snow. I have a good feeling about this one
PD is talking dry tongue again, possible or leftfield?ReplyDelete
That's a very real possibility. AS a matter of fact at 6am Wednesday the Euro is strongly hinting at that at the 700mb level over se MN.Delete
time to attack this monster....ReplyDelete
For Sw MN including the cities of Granite Falls, New Ulm, Windom, Worthington, Pipestone, Marshal and Canby. Expect 1-3 along the I 90 corridor, with rates going up from their as you go north. Granite Falls 3-5, Marshal 6-9, Canby 11-13.
For West Central MN, including the cities of Madison, Benson, Willmar, Litchfield, Glencoe, Buffalo and Montivedio. Any where between 7-14. Benson 7-9, Litchfied 9-12, Madison 11-14.
For the Northwest area including the cities Morris, Wheaton, Fergus Falls, Wadena, Glenwood, and Alexandria. Expect a wide spread 12-15", the golden shovel award for this area will go either Wadena at 16-20, or Wheaton at 13-16.
For the North Central area including the cities of Staples, Brainerd, Mora, Cambridge, St Cloud, Little Falls and Pine City. Expect 9 to 18" Brainerd and Staples 15-18, Little Falls 12-14 and Pine City as well. Elsewhere 9-12.
For West central Wisconsin, including the cities of Siren, Rice Lake, Eau Claire, New Richmond and Menomonie... expect 7-11" Lower amount at EAU of 7-9. Else where 8-11
For South East MN including the cities of Rochester, Albert Lea, Winona, Red Wing, Faribult, and Wasceca. 1-3" along the southern most tier of counties. Other wise Rochester, Red Wing and Fairabult 6-8, with waseca 5-7.
If this needs to be updated after the 27/0z run of the Euro I will.
To state the obvious I'm just a amateur without any formal training. Please trust you local media mets and the NWS much more than what I just posted.
Confidence level is low to average, as the GFS and Nam show much more QPF than what the Euro shows, adjustments will be made one way or another after tonight's runs...STAY SAFE EVERYONE!!! Travel only if necessary.
Because of the northern shift of the euro,PD downplaying the metro totals,still calling for plowable(6+)but says metro doesn't see a foot,and as always is the case the NAM inflates its numbers and PD doesn't think the NAM will pan out.I agree the NAM numbers rarely verify,case in point the storm today for northwest MN didn't even come close to the numbers the NAM projectedReplyDelete
You can track the various forecasts here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Appevum3PEdzdEYyRHJRc0FDVks4aktPbkhDRmw5NHc . I can't always watch every news segment, so feel free to comment on what you saw on TV, heard on other news sources, etc. But please be sure to listen carefully so it's accurate.ReplyDelete
@Randyinchamplain where are ur metro numbers?ReplyDelete
in previous post, wide spread 8-11" from south to north, and east to west.Delete
Where's Novak,you think he's upset with the northern shift of the euro?afterall his map above was based on the euro when he put it out.ReplyDelete
@Randyinchamplain thank you for your numbers,I see your placing the heaviest bands in central minnesota,any chance or anything your seeing that would bring the heavier totals into the metroReplyDelete
Big Daddy...I don't think so, given the track over the MN/IA border along with convection breaking out along the warm front over the Ohio Valley by 6am Wednesday morning and along the Mid Atlantic states by 1pm, coupled with convection getting started by noon along the cold front from Eastern TX into and points ne from there, that will all act to weaken the surface low. I think the US models are over doing the QPF here in the metro by about 1/2" or so. The Euro has been just under a inch for two straight runs now. As a matter of fact I think if anything at all, I may have to lower the amount over the metro to say 7-9"Delete
Everything I've seen leans towards a southern shift for the heavy snow in the Upper Midwest. All the models tend to agree that the surface and mid-level lows will be nearly stacked and move straight west to east across the MN/IA border. Usually, the axis if the heaviest snows falls along or 50-100 miles north of the mid-level low and/or 700mb low. That would place the axis of heaviest snow roughly on a line from Redwood Falls through the southern MSP metro to EAU. I simply can't imagine the axis developing 150 to 200 miles north of the mid-level lows over central MN. It just doesn't make sense. Of course, if warm air gets wrapped into the circulation, that will cut down totals for most everyone.ReplyDelete
Gut feeling is that MSP metro will lie along the axis of heaviest snows. I believe that some ice/rain will mix in with the snow, especially along the I-90 corridor in extreme southern MN where the roads will become nasty due to ice. Confidence is high that 10"-14"+ of snow will fall in the heaviest snow band.
Still too early to throw out exact totals. This monster has a good 48 hours to change its mind.
What's the effect of the various mb lows being nearly stacked (vs. if they weren't)? Also, do you see this as being cement-like snow (as mentioned tonight by Ian Leonard)?
The NAM + Kare 11 (Sebesta) are both bulls-eyeing the Twin Cities and north (like you, Novak). Jerrid Sebesta even noted that models the past few hours have favored the Twin Cities. Of course the model he then showed on the news appeared to follow more of the Euro solution, with some mix and the heavier snow more toward St. Cloud. At least show what you say and say what you show!!!Delete
The GFS/Euro and PD are obviously not in agreement with the Twin Cities as ground zero. I don't know enough to judge myself. All I do know is that these storms have been dud after dud and shifted further and further out of favor for us getting hit all winter. At this point, if it's not enough to give me an unplanned day off from work, I guess I could take it or leave it (and probably leave it).
Usually, a stacked system is the signs of a weakening and/or occluding storm. As stated earlier, I'm surprised that the models are stacking this system so quickly and that worries me a bit. I would prefer to have the mid-level lows be located N/NW of the surface low with the 500mb & 250mb lows located furthest away from the surface low. However, that is not what we will have with this storm and it should be a concern.ReplyDelete
Either way, I believe most Mets would agree that the axis of heaviest snows usually fall fairly close to the 700mb low where the trowal/deformation axis develops. This area is where some weird convective action would likely take place late TUE into WED am (thundersnow?)
Yes, this should be a fairly thick, cement-like snow. The 00z NAM shows snow ratios in the 10:1 - 15:1 area during the height of the storm. Plus, mid-level temps will be pretty warm which would keep high moisture content in the snow. In other words, a wet snow.
BTW, the 00z NAM also dumps 20" of snow on MSP and is advertising over 1" of ICE in RST! The latest 00z GFS is trending towards a warmer solution, but who cares, it is the GFS.
Hell, when I think about it, Friday's storm looks as good, if not better, from a classic structure standpoint than TUE/WED's storm. I'm actually also quite intrigued with that storm.ReplyDelete
Isn't this great? We went 5 months without jack squat, and now we've had 2 nice storms to talk about in last week with 2 more to follow this week. Amazing how Mother Nature always finds a way to even things out. It is all about balance, right?
DD 6 to 12 be aware track could change 1106 pm after the oscarsReplyDelete
Right on novak with all the activity the last 10 days and for the upcoming week. lets also not forget, whatever type of precip and how much the region receives, hopefully this will be the beginning of ending the drought, or at least put a nice dent into it.ReplyDelete
So I've been quiet with this one because of how frustrating the models have shifted things at the last minute. It seemed like any time I took interest in a storm, it decided to shift completely away. This systems track among the models is pretty close to agreement, but where they differ is the warm push. So many different factors can play into this system. More or less warm air can have a pretty big impact on how much snow falls in an area. There are things I like and things I don't like with this storm. First, the things I don't like...ReplyDelete
1) The lack of a deeper snow cover to our south to help cool the strong southerly winds coming out in front of the low.
2) The general track of the low, although still south of the metro, would be more ideal further south (even if it was by 50 or so miles). These strong systems can draw up dry air into them as well and cut off snow quickly to some places. If the low stays far enough south, the dry tongue won't be a concern for us.
3) Severe weather threat to the south. Although I don't believe this will become a factor, I feel that I should mention it. Severe storms to the south can easily prevent any moisture from getting up towards us. Given the track of the storm and its origin I don't foresee this happening.
Now, the things I do like
1) The NAM and Euro have both made a bump back to the south with their 00z runs, cooling things more rapidly and limiting (but not removing) the mixing for areas near the metro.
2) The overall dynamics of this storm are really impressive, and I could easily see snow rates approaching 1 to 2 inches per hour, maybe more in the heavy snow bands. This will hold especially true if there are convective snows which is possible given some models are showing some elevated cape. The snow will come down at a really good clip, especially late Tues into Wed...which brings me to my next point.
3) Snow falling overnight...the peak of the storm appears as though it will take place overnight Tuesday into Wednesday so no sunlight will aid in the accumulation process. This was a similar case just a week or so ago...and the mixing that was expected for the metro didn't happen.
4) High precipitation rates can cool layers of the atmosphere faster than models show, and that too would limit mixing. Also, if there is heavy enough precipitation on the north side of the warm front it can slow down or stall the progression of the warm front north. This too would keep things as more snow than anything.
Ok, I've babbled on enough. I don't want to get too exact on precip totals yet until there is better agreement with the thermal profile of this storm. Unless the models are just completely bombing on this one, there should be a fairly wide area of snow totals topping a foot. Areas north and near the metro and ajoining areas to the east into WI should stand the best shot at seeing all snow...and areas just south of the metro down towards IA and SW WI probably seeing some mixing. Twin Cities is really close to that boundary, so here's hoping to a colder looking GFS in the morning.
I may have to change some totals in the metro slightly, a tad bit less south, a bit more north, west central MN looks more interesting, and maybe further north. I have just rough info at this time for the Euro, I need to get a good look at the 850-925 mb layers to se what temps they are.ReplyDelete
@ Duane nice recap
BTW...It looks like the Euro wants to drop another 6" on FridayDelete
If the current forecast highs of mid-30s hold true, I expect a lot of mixing Tuesday night. Just too much warm air in place to stay all snow. Even NWS, which has been saying all snow for days has switched to a mix of snow/sleet for overnight Tuesday, and they're forecasting lower temps than many others. Granted, that's more welcome than rain, but any mix will affect totals and a forecaster's accuracy. Don't even get me started on the potential dry tongue...ReplyDelete
@Novak,Sven on Kare11 this morning had snow going over to sleet then rain,then back to snow also the NWS has this very cool mulitmedia briefing on their front page that expains more mix working into the metro,calling for some 6-10 inch amounts,I want to believe you cuz I want all the snow possible,but what are you seeing that they are notReplyDelete
@big daddy, I concurr, especially now that most outlets are going for highs above freezing both days. The all-snow forecast is becoming more and more of an anomaly.ReplyDelete
The GFS is taking the storm even further north showing a strong dry tongue, cutting down projected totals into the 2-6 inch range for the metro. Yikes. If that happens, there will be a lot of Twin Cities forecaters eating crow. The storm is looking to track about 50 miles too far north to put heavy snows at MSP south, and if you add in the fact that model trends tend to continue to the extreme this year, this low could get as far north as Mankato or the southern metro, which could mean light shoveling only. Crazy.ReplyDelete
ok I'm not holding my breath yet, but the nam has made a huge, major jump to the north, now brings the center of the low over MPS 2" of precip and 2" of snow, and no that's not a typo. But after all it is the nam.ReplyDelete
I'm not saying that the NWS is wrong because some of the latest data suggests that the axis of heavy snow will fall over central MN & a mix does affect MSP. However, I'm skeptical of this data since it is the NAM & GFS.ReplyDelete
What puzzles me is the weird jaunt to the NE with the surface low as it travels from central NE to the MN/IA border on TUE. Then, the surface low magically shifts back to an eastward course on WED. This just doesn't make sense. I would expect a more gradual E/NE movement of the surface low which would give it a little more of a southerly track than what is represented. If this does not happen, then the MSP metro is in a BUST scenario. I'm not going to throw out totals until later today since I'm not convinced in the surface low track.
Keep in mind, the mid-level lows continue to track south of the MSP metro. This is a good sign.
BUST! METRO BUST COMiNG! The writing is on the wall,all you snowlovers will be disappointed again,rent a van and travel north of ST. Cloud if you want to see a decent snowfall,hang up the model watching and enjoy the early spring,and as they say in sports better luck next year/winterReplyDelete
Mr Hammer at KSTP says either 6-8 or 8-14 for metro totals depending on mixing,the way it stands now even his lower numbers he will be eating crow AB!ReplyDelete
So reading the last couple of posts,looks like this storm will underachieve in the snowfall department again,and our in house mets of Randyinchamplain,Duane,Novak will call the models junk,we will have crabby mickey all over Novak,we will have snowlovers Mr.Bring It(Plymouth weather lover)and Mr.Send It(big daddy) all pissed off,until Thursday when we do it all over again because that's our next chance of snow.ReplyDelete
not so quick Sam. That's only one set of guidance, I've had the Nam under the bus the whole time, have not used it at all for this event.Delete
Sven just tweeted about that the metro now is looking at more of a mix, dropping the snow totals to around 4 inches. What he fails to "tweet" is about temps... rain at 28 degrees is worse than snow... Here comes the let down once again!ReplyDelete
The last I heard from Kare 11, their forecast highs for Tuesday/Wednesday were 35 and 36 degrees, respectively, which is a stark contrast to the 28 degrees you mentioned. 28 is actually far colder than I've seen any high temp forecast for those days; the coldest I've seen is 32/31 from the NWS.
Weather.com is forecasting 4-6 inches for the Twin Cities (with uncertainty, which I take to mean it could be less). Since they've been one of the more accurate sources all winter, I'm going to expect 6 inches to be the most snow-friendly scenario. I will anticipte 2-5 inches in Carver County, barring a 50-75 mile shift south in the next 12 hours, and break the news to my kids that they WILL be going to school on Wednesday.
Do you hear that Bill....that sound.........off in the distance.....of tap dancing that's the sound of the so called mets on this blog(and they know who they are no need to mention them by name)and the local professional mets who are all trying to figure out how to spin this and twist it so as to not eating crow.Why don't all you forecasters(here and professionals) follow one of the scenes from a Rocky movie as follows: The weather models is the Big strong Russian(Ivan Drakko) and you mets are Apollo Creed just taking a good ol' pounding and Bill(playing Rocky)is holding the white towel,hopefully Bill throws it in before you all crash and burn.ReplyDelete
I'm hearing all this talk about the storm going north... and than i see Lake City is forecasting 7-11 inches for Tuesday night alone from the NWS page.ReplyDelete
Hope that pans out..
Lake City is the LaCrosse NWS...not that they don't deserve respect or anything, but the Twin Cities NWS isn't even putting out area-specific snow totals for Tuesday night yet, likely because of the uncertainty and mixed precip. In my humble opinion, LaCrosse is jumping the gun big time.Delete
Sam, I think you've got your movie analogy wrong. If this site were that Rocky scene...The models would be Ivan Drago, and the actual storm itself would be Apollo. The forecasters would be "fair-weather" the boxing fans out the in crowd cheering for whoever was winning at the time and just plain happy to not be watching soccer.ReplyDelete
Soccer is what this winter has been so far. Just when you think there's going to be a goal...the ball sails south and slowly rolls out of bounds.
I think Bill should still be Rocky though.
@JAW Love the soccer analogy! Hope you don't mind if I tweet that.Delete
I was honestly pretty proud of that one when I typed it! Tweet away good sir.Delete
Too late to spin it. Startribune has already trotted out their overused, asinine "snowpocalypse" BS. This is just one reason I get 99% of my weather from non-human sources. I enjoy my forecasts without heaping amounts of sensationalism.ReplyDelete
Bill - not sure if you've thought of an over-hype scale yet. Each predicted storm could get a 1-10 number, with 10 being = totally overhyped. The benchmark of 10 would be the 12/312011 storm and then rank the rest of the winter from that.ReplyDelete
I love the Rocky analogy and the soccer one,but @JAW I believe SamG got it right all the forecasters here and local have been taking a pounding all winter long with their predictions and forecasts when they have followed the so called guidance,this storm is no exception. On a side PD has dropped totals to 5-8 in metro,next update will be 3-6,followed by 1-3,can one say coating.ReplyDelete
Nothing like a little jaunt north to ruin someones day. Alright winter, you "win" this year. Time for spring and summer.ReplyDelete
I don't know why many of you have your panties in a bunch. We've always said that a forecast that is 3-5+ days out is basically an educated guess. You make your money during the final 24 to 48 hours before an impending storm. As of this morning, we were basically still 36 hours from the impending storm.ReplyDelete
To think that people get upset when you are 50 to 100 miles off of a storm track when the storm is still 2 or 3 days away is beyond comprehension. Granted, I may have blinders on, but it is extremely difficult to predict an EXACT storm track that far out. In other words, give the weather forecasters a break for God's sake.
I believe that the key time frame is this evening. Most of your weather forecasts should be set in stone by then. Listen, read & watch closely this evening and see if the PM forecasts verify later tomorrow as the storm moves in. If they don't verify, then, and only then, can we call this a bust.
Looking at the latest guidance, it doesn't look good for the MSP metro. I don't believe anyone dreamed that the surface low would track up into the MSP metro & that is what these models are selling. If this is the case, expect a few hours of heavy snow followed by a mix then a dry slot. Not good for snow totals.
BTW, if central MN (BRD, STC, AXN, DLH) get a 12"+ of snow, I consider this a well forecasted system.
Then the forecasters need to stop predicting specific snowfall totals more than 48 hours out. Last week they were talking about a foot of snow for Tue/Wed. If your reasoning is right, then they're completely foolish to do that.Delete
How about a rule of thumb to be followed by hyperventilating TV weather personalities: is the predicted storm more than 48 hours away? THEN JUST SAY: "snow chances looking good" or some equally vague prediction!!
I just looked at the bufkit meteograms again, and twice today the model average has fallen. It's now under three inches for the metro. And the highest model (06z NAM) is down again.
The problem is for every person out there that doesn't like early predictions and asks for a vague statement, there's going to be another person who whines about the vague predictions. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. These guys are all giving their best forecasts based on the information available at the time. If we were to get a foot+ in the metro tomorrow, and nobody put it out there until today the forecaster bashing would be every bit as severe saying "if you knew this could happen 3 days ago why didn't you say anything?"
Novak what you have written is a joke,let's start from the top should all the areas south of the metro alter their travel plans still?,that is from YOUR graphic on Saturday morning that Bill has in his headlines,if by your standards 3-5 days out is an educated guess then don't put out a graphic to tell people to alter their plans if your "guessing",that was still more then 3 days out.Then you tell us to listen to this evenings forecast for accuracy,this evening(let's say 6pm for arguements sake)is 15-18 hours before the onset of precip according to everyone I heard,if you are telling me a forecast can not be accurate on less its inside 24hrs what's the purpose of 3,5,7 day forecasts,just tell me what it will be for that day and forget the rest then,if I listened to you on Saturday I would have cancelled my trip to Albert Lea for tommorrow,thank God I didnt. Note to Bill I'm taking a personal shot at Novak here,he should be held to the same standard of all the professionals you grade if you are going to use him in your headlinesReplyDelete
Ok guys, lets try to keep cool around here. Everyone is welcomed to share their forecast and predictions and we should be respectful.ReplyDelete
Regardless of what the final forecast is, we must remember that we all look at the forecast with bias. What do I mean? Well, when the forecast is for 3-6 inches of snow, naturally, most of us will expect 6 inches. Additionally, when the forecast indicates 12 inches will fall nearby, our bias will make us view that statement as 12 inches will most likely fall on my city.
Basically, what I'm trying to say here is that we all exhibit bias. The weather will do what it wants, but it is our bias that will get us frustrated sometimes because we want to read the information the way we want it to be, not the way it really is...
I have not changed my mind on altering travel plans. I still believe that much of central AND southern MN will have difficult travel tomorrow into WED. Travel difficulty can be caused by snow and/or ICE. A Winter Storm does not just indicate snow. In fact, most travelers would tell you that ice is a larger hazard. I'm happy that you are traveling to Albert Lea tomorrow, hopefully you wait until late afternoon or evening before traveling back north. While you are on the freeway, feel free to pull off to the side and text us when you run into difficult travel conditions. You know we love to hear from you.
As far as weather predictions are concerned, Yes, I'm telling you that a 3-5 day forecast is an educated guess. Most of the time forecasts are correct, but when it comes to storm predictions, it is more difficult and the percentages go down. If you don't like it, then make your own forecast and bitch at yourself.
If you've noticed, I have not posted a snow graphic yet because I'm simply not confident with what is going to happen. I agree with 'Disco80' who says that it is "foolish" to post snow prediction totals 48 hours in advance. Those forecaster will definitely be wrong more times than not, especially this season.
As I've stated before, if a weather forecast can notify the public of an impending storm well in advance, then they have done their job even if the storm does not levy a direct hit on their location. IMO, most people like to hear of potential and understand that there is margin for error.
In the case of this storm, forecasters have been talking about heavy snows near or in MSP for almost 5 days now. To think that Blizzard conditions will only be 100 miles away is impressive and should be considered pretty damn good forecasting. The same goes with yesterday's storm.
@Bill I concur with crabby mickey on this one,for all the crap that mikey gets and sometimes rightfully so he is spot on with his last comment,think about the people who just listened to Novak on Saturday and altered their travel plans,Noval needs to take the crictisim if your going to use his graphics take make a point about a possible event.........which at this point is minor at best for half the areas that Novak said should alter their plansReplyDelete
@Crabby, @SamG and @Novak I'll just say that I certainly see both sides here (and then run for public office). Also, my bias is that I do live in the heart of the MSP core (and think that's all that matters. :-)) while I know that Tom thinks more in terms of the state and a larger geographic area. (The same is true of MPR's Paul Huttner.)ReplyDelete
Tough crowd. Damn...and the storm hasn't even hit yet. :)ReplyDelete
This site used to be a fun place to come in and hear other people's discussions about upcoming storms, but not it is quickly turning into a place where certain posters pretty much hope that a storm turns, wiggles, or dies just so they can come back in here and poke fun and insults at others. @BigDaddy wondered where my opinion was on this storm, and this is the exact reason why I held off on voicing my opinion. I may hold off on coming back into this forum as well if it is just going to turn into an insult fest. Novak, just like any other forecaster out there, is simply getting a warning out of a possibiltiy of a storm system coming through the area, and SUGGESTING that you may want to alter some travel plans. The ultimate decision is up to you. He is absolutely right in that it doesn't have to be a foot of snow for someone to alter their plans. Ice and sleet would force me to change my plans, and those possiblities are still there, but that will depend on how surface temps react to the low moving through. If temps get up to 34 or higher, roads will stay mostly wet. If it is 28 overnight and raining, that is a problem. I do have a bias towards forecasters because it is a pain trying to figure this stuff out. If people really wanted, we could just wait until just before the storm hits to warn you...and when it actually hits the way it is supposed to and you are stuck out in a ditch because you didn't realize it was coming until it was already happening, feel free to fire up your smart phone and blog on here how mad you were that there was no advanced warning from any forecaster. Until then...I'll see ya in the summer.ReplyDelete
@Duane Your input is greatly valued. I hope you'll stick with us.ReplyDelete
@Novak, don't let the whiners get you down. Friendly advice though if it does bother you... maybe add some type of a disclaimer to the graphic (even though it shouldn't be needed) saying something to the tune "current data suggests these will be the most highly impacted areas", or change the "alter your travel plans" to "be ready to alter your travel plans." I would hope most wouldn't take it so literally to think you were suggesting Sat that everyone in the high/blue area should alter their plans 3-5 days in advance, but I guess I can see how a few could see it that way.ReplyDelete
I thought this forum was created to keep track of how accurate the local meteorologists (as in the ones on the local T.V. channels)? All I see is amateur (and by that, I don't mean it negatively) making their own forecasts and giving excuses why the "locals" can't get it right most of the time. I came here to see how often they are right or wrong, and that includes temperatures. I've been watching these local meteorologists for years and I think they're really bad. Either they got some bunk radar equipment or whatever models they're looking at don't seem to be very accurate. They did a better job 30 years ago when they didn't have all this high-tech equipment. I agree wholeheartly with the poster who talked about doing 3-5 day out forecasts. They are never usually anywhere near what they forecast, so what's the point of doing them? People try to make plans (and always have) from what the meteorologists are forecasting, it's as simple as that. If they can't be anywhere near accurate going that far out, then they shouldn't even be trying to forecast it. I don't look at trying to forecast the weather as a "game" as some people do. I'd just like a good degree of accuracy most of the time. The bunch I've seen in the Twin Cities (on T.V.) are the worst I've ever seen.ReplyDelete