Thursday, February 21, 2013

Final Forecast for Friday Snow

As of late this Thursday evening, we gathered the following forecasts for Friday's snow. For stations electing to use a "snow meter" or otherwise include very specific amounts produced by model data, we are using those exact forecasts (this was the case for Fox and KARE). For other weather outlets providing a range of snow, we are arbitrarily using the middle of the range as the forecast for the MSP airport.

WCCO: 3-6 (call it 4.5)
KSTP: 3-5 (call it 4)
FOX: 5.6 (for MSP airport)
KARE: 5 (per model)
NWS: 2-6 (per weather.gov)
MPR: 2-5 (call it 3.5)
Strib: 2-4 (call it 3)
Accuweather: 1-3 (call it 2)
Weather Channel: 2-6 (call it 4)
Shakopee Weather: 4.6
Novak Weather: 3-6 (call it 4.5)

69 comments:

  1. Radar shows Mpls area 494/694 loop encapsulated in "blue" yet not a flake yet in Minnetonka.
    MNPLOWCO

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  2. Be patient MNPLOWCO,right on que....snow is falling in Eden Prairie,straight up midnight!Come on mother nature,let everyone be wrong and we end up somewhere between 8-10".

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  3. Radar shows "blue" from St. Cloud down to
    Des Moines. Big gap of clear around Hutchinson.
    No flakes in Minnetonka yet. Must be the dry air. MNPLOWCO

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  4. MNPLOWCO - this is normal. It is snowing, just not at ground level yet. What is your outdoor dew point/humidity at Minnetonka?
    MSP is reporting a temp of 22, dew point of 12 = 66% humidity at Midnight. Soon enough...

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  5. MN Weatherfan - And Big Daddy- Yep, It is here.
    I had to hit the sack after last post. 1/2 inch in Minnetonka now at 320am. Not enough down to pull the trigger on anything but commercial accounts. So, slow start for us this am. Tonight, after it stops, the clean ups will begin. Cheers MNPLOWCO

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  6. 1" currently in Eden Prairie.....moderate/heavy snow at the moment!Keep it coming!

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  7. 2.2" currently in Eden Prairie.....light snow falling!

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  8. A solid 3.5 inches so far here in Rosemount. It is snowing steadily. I just heard Sven on Kare say that the accumulating snow will end by mid-morning. So much for an additional 2-3 inches throughout today, as was forecasted last night.

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  9. I'm not complaining though. It is a beautiful winter's morning with a steady snow globe snowfall. Too bad it isn't Saturday or Sunday. The commute this morning is anything but good.

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  10. Four inches and snowing steadily in Apple Valley!

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  11. Heavy snow in Farmington with about 5 inches so far.

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  12. Snowing heavily in Rosemount. We're up to 4.5 inches!

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  13. Radar showing a heavy band of snow approaching E to W across the metro. Looks like another 2" for sure.

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  14. Here, we have 4 inches of snow and rising. This is awesome! I guess the models may have rung true to their predictions, but I think that most of the forecasters have underestimated the totals. Probably because they expected the storm to keep shifting. However, in the end, the models stabilized, and by that time the forecasts were set. Remember the NWS's original forecast? 5-8 inches. And were knoking on that door. Perhaps some people will end up with 7+ inches.

    There was a bust here, but not the kind that the pessimists favor.
    As for the upcoming storm expected to hit sometime sun through wed. I do not beleieve it is bust. For once, I am going to put my faith to the GFS. The reason is that the ECMWF sides BOTH with the GEM and NOGAPS. If that does not say anything, I don't know what does. In addition, both of these models are trending the storm towards us. As a rule of thumb that I heard one a long time ago, "once the models start trending, they usually continue to trend in that direction until the onset of the storm." I think that the NWS has caught onto this, and that is why they favor a storm for this timeframe. It is pretty awesome when a forecaster uses their brain instead of interpreting their favorite model. This is why I like our odds of a storm somtime sunday through wednesday.

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  15. BTW- @MNPLOWCO: what is your definition of a "plowable" snow?

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  16. NOAA now calling for additional 2-4 for the metro, up from 1-2.

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  17. 4 inches in Golden Valley........moderate snow falling......keep it coming baby!

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  18. Pretty funny now the NWS says locally up to 8"............when the first flakes started to fly I hoped everyone was wrong with their predictions and I was rooting for 8-10 inches...I may come close maybe not at MSP but several areas around the metro......I always when snow is forecasted you never know excactly how it will pan out and I think many snowlovers are happy today for the litle extra were getting.

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    1. Well stated, big daddy! I for one am loving the gorgeous snowfall this morning. When it was coming down heavily earlier this morning, I could literally see it accumulating before my very eyes. At last check about an hour ago we had a solid 5 inches here in Burnsville. Nickel-sized flakes are now falling gently and steadily in Burnsville at this time. Wind is nowhere to be found. I hope the flakes continue throughout the afternoon. February has been very good to us. I wish December and January had been as well. At any rate, let it snow!!!!

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  19. Well, it definitely wasn't any kind of a storm, as the snowfall was just light and nice to look at. We got a couple-3 inches here in East Bethel. Enough to go have a little fun on the sleds though

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    1. Just think JMigz, in January we were all begging for 2-3 inches! Enjoy the sledding!

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  20. 5 inches here in Burnsville, as Snow Miser mentioned.

    So how's that Sun-Tue storm looking, guys?

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    1. This morning the NWS was saying that there is still a lot of disparity between the Euro and the GFS regarding next week's possible storm. However, they seem confident that the Metro will receive at least some snow from that storm. It will be a real guessing game for the next couple of days or so until the models finally come into agreement with one another.

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  21. Looking at the wind map, it appears the low pressure has tracked over Dubuque, IA...further west than was forecast, no?

    http://hint.fm/wind/index.html

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  22. PD is forecasting 0" for Tuesday's "storm."

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    1. You mean he didn't mean this when he hyped it in bold letters it the other day?

      "All told we'll probably pick up another 10" of snow between now and next Tuesday in the metro.

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  23. The key with the next system is going to be how strong the inverted trough will be coming WNW off the low. The low track, at this point in time, will be too far south and east for us to be affected by it...but add in the inverted trough and it can add extra lift and dynamics to the atmosphere to produce snow. It is still several days away and the track is far from locked in but it certainly is worth keeping an eye on (for now).

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  24. Here is a fun article from weather.com for all of us snow lovers. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/deepest-snow-50-states-record-snow-cover-20130220

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  25. All in all an excellent forecast by most. 5 days notice and pretty accurate on snow totals I'd say. For all the beating up we do on local weather gurus, they did a great job with this one.

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  26. So were really suppose to believe wunderground with its 8" of snow over 3 days(Sunday night thru Wednesday)?
    Accuweather has 2-4" Monday night into Tuesday
    Weather.com has pulled all mention of snow

    So what's going to happen?we have all these weather enthusiats yet not much being said about our next potential snow event.

    Todays was okay,pretty much fell into everyones range,I believe the best forecast was to predict 3-6!

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  27. @bemaki. "That” was plowable! Actually, depends on account agreements. But, we generally hit commercial at 1"+ and residential at 1.5"
    15 hours into that one (traffic and replows) Heading out for follow up cleaning on commercial accounts. Need coffee, MNPLOWCO

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  28. I would like to commend everyone on their forecasts for this storm. I think everyone pretty much hit their marks. A few minor things would be the lack of a warning in far southern MN where apparently some 7+ totals were reported, but I think they were isolated enough that really the advisory got the point across. Next system is still pretty sketchy but some light snow is certainly possible from it in some parts of MN and WI. Too soon for amounts, but there is one thing I have noticed and that is the increase in wind speed as the system passes by to our south and east. Tightening gradient and decent mixing should provide for a breezy couple of days next week (mostly the Tues-Thur time frame). Wind prone areas of MN and WI may have their freshly fallen fluffy snow drifting and reducing visibilities. Just something to keep an eye on over the coming days. Unless there are some big changes that happen, amounts don't look to be all that impressive at the moment. GFS is the only one that really shows anything decent while the others are mostly just light. It may be a while before we see anything else after this next system passes so I guess enjoy it while you can. Spring is less than one month away.

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  29. 00z runs are in and there will be NO second storm for our area,too far south and east!
    Pass the crow to all those who declared there would be a 1-2 punch of snow!

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    1. Looks like Kansas City is going to get the ole 1-2 punch. They just picked up 11 inches from the storm a couple of days ago. The NWS is now calling for a possible blizzard with 10+ inches for the KC area beginning tomorrow. Maybe the TC Metro will get its turn soon.

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    2. When you mean "soon" your thinking like in the next five years or something,because major snowstorms like the ones hitting KC this week,don't materialize in our area,unless there's a act of God!

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    3. The Twin Cites averages a 10+ inch snowstorm every other year. We've already had one this year so its not like we're due a big one. Also, the Twin Cities is at 35.5" of snow this season which is only 4.7" below average. Like it or not, this is turning in to a normal winter for snowfall. 2010 was an anomaly not the norm.

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  30. Reading the NWS discussion is very depressing this morning,que the crickets!

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    1. I agree. Is anybody up for a road trip to KC? They are going to get smacked again.

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  31. Really excited about this stretch of weather coming up. Nice mild spring sunshine. Melting snow. Birds chirping. Love it!

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  32. @Randyinchamplain you still tracking that major snowstorm for our area by the 15th of March,for me to move the last of the winter product it needs to be a dumping,like 10-12+ inches.......really anything less and people would just assume watch it melt then buy products to help clear it.Bring It Baby!

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  33. February 24:
    What I like:
    -deep snowpack(solid 10" in my yard)
    -said snowpack keeps temps down,extended period has highs in the 20s/30s
    -slow melt,snow on the ground will be there to enjoy for several weeks
    -no crazy warm temperatures like last years 80 on St. Pattys Day
    -future storm systems has the potential for more snow then rain due to the colder temperatures over the next several weeks.
    What I don't like:
    -like it or not spring is right around the corner
    -no storms of any flavor on the horizon,hoping to see snow pop up at anytime
    -dirty snow piles will pop up across the metro if we don't get new snowcover
    -time is running out to sell winter inventory
    In closing,Mother Nature please bring us one tourney time major blizzard in excess of a foot of snow,then and only then can spring come for all those who want the warmer weather,just remember when the warmer weather arrives the dreaded heat index can't be too far behind! Here's to a delayed spring!

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  34. Well stated, big daddy!

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  35. NWS went 2-6 last storm and nailed it with reports of 5+ inches on the west side. Love to see when the forecasters make you people that complain shut up.

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  36. Chirp, chirp, chirp. Listen to the sound of crickets....

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    1. HaHa, was thinking the same thing. I wonder if all the "bring it" crowd were actually able to go out and enjoy a glorious day yesterday, or if they were hiding out in a basement bunker doing snow dances and cursing forecasters and mother nature?

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    2. Thanks Ryan,funny you should ask of course I enjoyed the day yesterday,we "bring it guys" want snow on the ground so we can enjoy it and have fun it and be kids again,me and my girls went sledding on Sunday and made a snowman after school yesterday,while all the while was thinking that mother nature could BRING more!

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  37. Is Wunderground related to Accuweather or are they in bed with the GFS,just last night they had 2 inches of snow with 20% to 50% for the Mon/Monday night (3/4),now they 50% to 60% snow chances Sunday night thru Tuesday night with up to 9 inches of snowfall.Really?the storm hitting the midwest yesterday and today was forecasted by them to hit us as well,so I'm not trusting them.Thoughts anyone?

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    1. Next Sunday through Tuesday might as well be months away, in my opinion. I think all of us here have learned, or should have learned, by now not to trust any forecast that is more than 36-48 hours away from the start of the event. Too much will change between days 5,6 and 7 and days 1 and 2. We have seen this occur time and time again. Forecasts several days out are usually good for indicating the existence of a storm, but they are typically extremely unreliable for predicting the storm's eventual path. Case in point, the second part of our supposed 1-2 punch has now ended up several hundreds of miles south and east of us. Instead of digging out from a huge snowstorm, the Metro is experiencing just cloudy skies, not even a flurry.

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    2. This storm has clearly been going south of us for 5 or 6 days. The first storm it was clear the heaviest snow would be south of the metro for 4 or 5 days before it. Not sure where your 36-48 hour crap is coming from.

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    3. I have never posted on this site, but I do view it often. I find it interesting to read the comments and from afar to share my interest of the weather with others. It is my understanding that this site was developed for weather enthusiasts to discuss and share with each other their love, frustration, excitement, etc. of the weather, good or bad. I therefore find it very difficult to believe that it is Bill's intention to permit personal attacks, rude and uncivil language, etc. on this site. I won't, and I can't, speak for the poster to whom you, CWY2190, are responding, but after reading your comment I felt compelled to draft this post. I am disappointed with the last sentence of your comment. IMHO, it is very rude, uncivil and immature. I sure hope this isn't a harbinger of what this site will become.

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    4. Rudeness and incivility on the internet? Well, I never!

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    5. Yeah, go figure. Sad, isn't it?

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  38. Weather forecasting is hard.

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  39. It wasn't the wisest choice of words and I apologies for that.

    However, I stand by the overall strength of my reply.

    "all of us here have learned, or should have learned, by now not to trust any forecast that is more than 36-48 hours away from the start of the event."

    "Case in point, the second part of our supposed 1-2 punch has now ended up several hundreds of miles south and east of us"

    You make it sound like two days ago the NWS still had us getting blasted by a major storm but that is clearly wrong. Yes, 7 to 10 days ago, it looked like we may be digging out of a big storm right about now but that quickly went away. By last Friday (5 days ago), almost every model and forecast was putting this storm well south of us.

    In my view, nailing a storm 5 days out is an amazing achievement of modern computing and science that has saved countless lives and damage because people are now prepared (and in some cases over-prepared) for a storm (be it a hurricane or winter storm or even tornado outbreak). Even more amazing, in my opinion, is the fact that these models are consistently "seeing" these storms 8, 9, 10, or even 12 days in advance. Sure in might say "big storm in Minnesota in 10 days", but if 10 days later there is a big storm in Iowa and Nebraska thats still pretty damn impressive in my view.

    So in conclusion of my rant, I want to make it clear that I believe the models and meteorologists have been superb in these last two storms. People on here are just mad because they didn't get 2 feet of snow.

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  40. If Anonymous at 8:08 thinks that was rude and uncivil, he hasn't been on the internet for more than a couple hours in his entire life.

    No apology needed, in my opinion.

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    1. Now Disco80, just because you and/or others may have experienced behavior on the internet that is much more extreme than has been alleged here, doesn't mean less extreme behavior is not also rude and uncivil. In my opinion, I welcome CWY2190's response. Hopefully, everybody will now be able to move on and stop the unnecessary bickering. I agree with CW2190 that the models are pretty darn good at "seeing" storms more than a week or so from the event. I also agree that it's pretty impressive if a big storm called for a week or more away hits close to the initial target. Predicting the weather for a location with such varied and extreme weather conditions as Minnesota has got to be one of the most frustrating and difficult jobs in the world.


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  41. Ok I think its about time to actually focus on weather then to stew over the word crap........Euro coming close to metro with snow on Monday or should we keep it status quo where were not talking about it and we get a health dose,yeah let's keep it hush-hush!

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  42. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 27, 2013 at 11:16 PM

    No hush hush. Bring it!!!!!!!

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  43. While I agree that forecasts for the last storm were generally solid, I'd be quicker to praise the models than the forecasters. More often than not, all forecasters will get it right or they'll all get it wrong, particularly as weather events get closer. It's not like all the forecasters huddled in a meeting center before this last storm and retooled the way they do things; it's simply that the data they relied on was more accurate this last time around. Agree?

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  44. Sorry to disappoint you @big daddy and @plymouth weather lover but if you want the snow to be "brought" on Monday you need to travel to the Minnesota River Valley and points south,Euro has over 6 inches there,not much in metro if anything at all!

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    1. Sam, I'm not going to say that advisory or warning criteria snowfalls will be seen in the metro TC's , for it's way to early. However all the models seem to have moved a bit north.
      The 28/12z Euro took a nice jump to the north. The 28/18z GFS followed suit. Even the Gem, which had a perfect track for us at 28/0z has moved north with the 28/12z run and now puts us in the warm sector during the first part of the storm.

      The models will have a hard time with this, it seems to be kind of a Hy-bred storm, showing some signs of a clipper,
      (with a inverted surface trough) but yet it develops a surface low in the northern part of CO into SD. This will be something to watch in the next couple of days. This is quick a dirty look at things, the one question I have is whether the models are correctly depicting the amount of available moisture, I suspect it's a bit high, but confidence is low at this point.

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    2. Mr. Randyinchamplin,its been awhile since we heard from you.Is this going to be your 'major' snowfall that you have been advertising for awhile now that will occur before the 15th of March,because time is running out,tick-tock! According to weather lure spring begins in 2 hours!

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    3. If it is, it's coming from the wrong direction. I thought that by this time we may have well had a good SE ridge building in, but it has yet to show itself, primarily because of the + PNA. The pattern did become very snowy indeed, I just thought it would move up here, but instead it stayed to our south.

      Now with the heavy snow pack to our south I don't see temps being above normal for MN. in March. Keep in mind there is also a good snow pack to our north. As the southern jet starts to move northward and warms the areas to our south melting the snow pack, I really think we will be in the bulls eye, with warm air to our south, and cold just to our north. This just seems like a good set up for a major storm up here, it may start off as rain however, and may occur after March 15th.

      Let me say this, I love early springs and warm temps, but I highly doubt there will be any golf courses open come April first in the metro area.

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  45. The 03/0z suite of model runs seems to bring some snow fall into MN including the TC metro starting on Monday.

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  46. it looks like 00z gfs frm 03/01 took and unexpected jump south with lots of dry air frm canada choking off snowfall. at this point it appears to be an outlier of the ec and gem.

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  47. Sound the alarms,snow IS coming!

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  48. Novak's 3/1/2013 7:30AM Facebook/Twitter post - "It is becoming clear that much of MN incl. the MSP metro will be impacted by a Major Winter Storm late SUN into MON." -- Hopefully he stops in and shares his thoughts.

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  49. New thread on possible Sunday/Monday storm just issued.

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