Saturday, February 2, 2013

The (Clipper) Train is Rolling

The track seems well greased from Alberta to the Twin Cities and points southeast. Most all forecasters predict we're squarely in the midst of a train of Alberta clippers, the fast moving snow bursts that drop fluffy snow over these parts.

As of this writing, 7:30 on Saturday evening, it looks like train number two is close to leaving the Twin Cities station after dropping somewhere around a half inch of snow. More snow is forecast Sunday night and Monday night.

Are you enjoying nature's version of Amtrack?

81 comments:

  1. @Bill train hasn't left the station just yet,still snowing as of this writing here in Golden Valley,one inch so far with locomotive#2.
    3 more to go,tommorrow nights looks abit stronger then the first two if banding sets up over the metro,could be some 3" amounts.

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  2. Paul Douglas's sidekick at the Trib calling for a mix for next weekend,rah rah shaggy,warm air aloft?rain-snow line?mixed precip potential?ice?winter rain?
    Snowlovers can't be happy!

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  3. I love the Amtrack, although clippers every day seem to get on the nerve of drivers out there, hey it's MN, learn to live with it and slow down.

    As for the talk of a storm next weekend, I'm not buying into it yet, the 02/12z runs of the GEM and the GFS were showing a -EPO developing at the same time as the storm was progged to be over MN/WI, (negative EPO means cold.) Therefore I'm not surprised with the shift to the south, the Euro on the hand was showing a + EPO. I would expect the Euro tonight to come in further north than the the GFS/Gem, but will eventually get there, the GFS IMO has had the hot hand lately. I still thing we are going to have to wait until after Feb 15th for a big snow fall. Possibly like Feb 25th through March 15.

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    1. sorry for the messy post, you would think I'm drunk, working on only my 2nd beer!!!LOL

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  4. IMO, this system for next weekend is fascinating to watch as it evolves according to the models, the Euro develops the upper level low over the lee side of the Rockies with a surface low aimed squarely at MN, then it sheers out the upper level low on a SW to NE orientation kicking the surface to the SE where it picks up a slug of gulf moisture, it eventually brings it north and puts a big hurt on ARX to EAU with MSP on the northwestern side. The final track of this thing will be fascinating to watch as it unfolds.

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  5. KSTP's Yuhas also raising the mixed precip signal for next weekend,calling for freezing rain and snow by Saturday afternoon(2/9).Snowlovers still can't be happy!

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  6. Locomotive#3 looking abit robust for later today/tonight.......SuperClipper says "I think I can,I think I can!.......NWS has the Winter Weather Advisory carpet out for this guy that lies right thru the heart of the metro with a snowfall of up to 5" predict,we'll see what happens.......enjoy the game and the snow,something to watch on the tube and out your window......Go Ravens and SuperClipper!

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  7. I know it's still a week away, but I am hearing murmurs about rain/mix for next Saturday's potential big storm. Hmmm, this has the pernicious markings of the dreaded....wait for it....yes, the dreaded M.A.E. (Mid-Atlantic Effect) sneaking up upon us and rearing its ugly head once again. Big Daddy, please say it ain't so! PWL, start dancing feverishly to appease the snow gods! In the meantime, all aboard the clipper train! Everybody, enjoy today's snow and the Super Bowl! Be safe and have fun!

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  8. I am just happy that the clipper train is now back on track. This is where most of our winter accumulation comes from, and after about a year and a half of absence, we can actually look forward to some deccent snow cover before it all goes.

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  9. @Snow Miser yes the potential is there for a mixed bag next weekend but I wouldn't get all hung up on the perticulars just yet,the track will vary with each model run,so its too early to rejoice if it shows snow or get pissed off if it shows rain/ice,I will tell you this temperatures will be marginal at best around freezing,so just be thrilled that there's a system to monitor as opposed to the boring weeks we have had and that the potential is there for a moderate/heavy snowfall,in the meantime I would focus on our clipper train which for at least for this snowlover keeps me content......I got 3 inches from the first two,and looking forward to see what the other 3 will delivery,and all the while keeping an eye on what could be for next weekend......keep dancing PWL!!!!.

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    1. @Bid Daddy, I agree with you on all accounts 100%. I love and am grateful for the recent snow we have received. I too have recorded 3 inches from a combination of clippers 1 & 2. I am hopeful that clipper #3 tonight matches, if not exceeds, that total. I am a little gun shy when it comes to big storms bringing warm air. I think you can understand why. Keep dancing PWL!

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  10. Is it me or does it look like the snow for tonight is setting up south of the winter weather advisory area and the snow coming out of the Dakotas will follow a more southerly track.I hope I'm wrong!

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    1. Wondering the same thing. Almost feels like the clipper they've made the biggest fuss about may end up being the dud.

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    2. The NWS has been horrible with their headlines as of late with the last few systems that have rolled thru here,the snow/ice event of last Sunday they were always behind with the expanded winter weather advisory and then a few hours later of the winter storm warning,then Mon. night/Tues. they missed the boat on the freezing rain advisory until too late and now today/tonight they missed the placement of the WWA as the snow has setup south of the metro.I know weather is a moving target,but the WWA for the immediate metro wasn't posted till 10:30am this morning and they still couldn't get it right,were suppose to count on the experts right?

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    3. they even had a bold 100% chance...

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    4. I agree. The power is out at the Super Bowl, and it looks like the power is out of the clipper for the metro. Big fail...again...NWS? 100% chance of snow? Forecasted amounts increased this evening from 2-4 inches to 3-5 inches, but still no snow??!! Really??!! Disappointed!!!!

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  11. I'm just wondering what happened to the warm-up we were supposed to have this weekend. LOL!!

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  12. @Mark P. Completely agree. And you could throw in that Friday night brought more snow that was generally expected -- even yesterday's snow seemed somehow amiss.

    And yes, @Anonymous, the weekend warmup was a far cry from what we were lead to believe. Guess weather forecasting continues to be an inexact science.

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  13. Um,guys have you looked out your window......this thing may still drop a couple of inches on us,it has definitely picked up here in Golden Valley and the radar has filled in nicely,now maybe a winter weather advisory might not have been needed,but some locales may reach low end advisory snows and with the extra super bowl party goers I don't think it was a bad idea.

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  14. @Big Daddy... yea, it does seem to have picked up, but still likely to be less than the event we were led to expect.

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    1. Yes I agree we didn't get what was expected by the NWS,but I know full well(like Duane mentions below)clippers are so fickle,you never know where the best snows will setup........with that said got another inch last night,for an 4" total so far with the clipper train,with at least one more according to the NWS for tonight,they have taken out Wednesdays clipper,but interestingly Paul Huttner calls for 1-3 inch snows tonight and Wednesday in his blog,we'll see who's correct,its hard to put any faith in anyone right now,especially the NWS....but that's what makes following weather interesting/fun.

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  15. As many have already pointed out, the accumulations have been a difficult forecast for the NWS, and this isn't an uncommon thing. Clippers in my opinion are one of the tougher things to forecast. They usually will fall in a narrower area than your big storms, and with good temp profiles the rain/snow ratios can be even more favorable for good snow. This mornings run of the models seemed to show that an area of 2-4 could easily set up in the area of the advisory, but nature doesn't always do exactly what the model thinks it will do. If the first ones put down more than expected, and now this one is putting down less I guess in the end things balance out. I really do love these clippers because you look at radar and think not much is falling but then you go outside and it is coming down at a decent clip. Sometimes these things surprise us and end up dropping half a foot of snow, and other times they move though too quickly and only put down an inch or less. Either way, it's nice to watch from the window. As far as this weekend goes, well that one is too soon to really get into specifics. It still will have to be watched through the week to see how it develops. A lot can still change and happen with that one.

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  16. Euro model cranking out warning level snows by Sunday afternoon,6 days out too early too get excited but nice to see!

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  17. snowing moderately in Eden Prairie,already an 1/2" in less then a hour!

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  18. 12:55 am. Snow is done. 1/2 inch in Minnetonka

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  19. I wish you guys were awake....its snowing hard boys!,like an 1+ an hour rate.

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  20. A cool 1.5" with locomotive#4(up to 5.5 here in Golden Valley with our clipper train),come on #5 bring an even 2" tommorrow and I will nail that 7.5 I predicted last week......just 10 days ago there was bare ground everywhere with dirty snow piles,this is nice to see!Hope we can continue to add to it,Paul Huttner speaks of a Euro bomb on Sunday,time will tell....are you still dancing PWL?

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  21. GFS back on board with the Euro bringing a big storm into the area. There are still differences in timing and exact placement but if this particular run of the GFS pans out, that 10+ inch total could easily be reached...and it wouldn't be the light fluffy stuff we have seen. Still a lot can change, but if the Euro continues to show this system hitting the area, then confidence will be going up with each model run. Again though, still early.

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  22. It seems that at this point every model expects a major storm to hit somwhere within our CWA expect for the GEM and the MRF (HMMMMM....) I know that it way way far out but this is pretty convincing.

    Knock on wood

    I really hope that this pans out.

    I will give it a 50/50, but trending favorable.

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  23. Great,Novakweather should be making his presence felt shortly then,haven't heard much from him lately but then again there hasn't been a high impact event for him to start chirping,I'm sure his impact weather map with the metro inside the bullseye can't be far away,please don't jinx us Novak!

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  24. NovakWeather is always posting on Twitter and Facebook. If you want more frequent updates I'd suggest that.

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  25. The TMF model predicts a massive snowstorm beginning around noon on Sunday. Why? Cause yours truly is off to Florida on Sunday morning. If this ends up being an epic storm, it will be hard (well, a little harder) to enjoy the Florida beaches. Seriously, hope you guys get a good snow... but not a once-in-a-lifetime one!

    (TMF model, of course, is the The Minnesota Forecaster model. :-))

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  26. I'm usually able to read the AFDs and understand them, but this one out of the Twin Cities office was quite detailed, even for an AFD.
    For the TL;DR - they have growing confidence for a major snow storm stretching from parts to Nebraska to northern Minnesota.

    FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
    THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIAGNOSED FROM A POTENTIAL VORTICITY PERSPECTIVE TO TRY TO GAIN SOME INSIGHT ON HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE. AN EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS VIA THE GFS90 06.00 CROSS SECTION SHOWING ISENTROPES...POTENTIAL VORTICITY...AND WINDSPEED ORIENTED ALONG THE 130W MERIDIAN FROM 60N TO 20S IDENTIFIED 2 DISTINCT JETS AS SEEN BY THE TROPOPAUSE UNDULATIONS AT ROUGHLY 30N AND 55.. THE NORTHERN JET WAS ORIENTED ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS JET WAS LOCATED ATOP THE MOST WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERNMOST JET WAS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT LOCATED WITHIN THE H500 TO H150 LAYER.

    AS TIME PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BECOME DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT CRAWLS DOWN THE WEST COAST. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES THIS IS WHERE OLD PACIFIC STORMS GO TO DIE AS THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AT MID LEVELS GRADUALLY ERODES THE PV...ALONG WITH THE DECREASED CORIOLIS FORCE AT LOWER LATITUDES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE WITH THIS STORM. BY TRANSLATING THE CROSS SECTION EASTWARD TO THE 120W MERIDIAN...ONE IS ABLE TO CAPTURE THE WEAKENING PV ANOMALY AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA. IT IS HERE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AS SEEN BY THE COUPLED JET IN THE CROSS SECTION.

    ONCE THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONIC SHEAR ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE OCCLUDED STORM CAUSING IT TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 06.00 ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SHOW THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS HAS A MORE ROBUST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE DEEPENS THE LOW MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF.

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    1. It doesn't sound like the NWS is on board with a snowstorm hitting the metro. They are calling for lovely rain/mix in the metro and heavy snow in western and northern MN. Is the dreaded Mid Atlantic Effect coming to get us? I hope not!

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    2. No, the models have the low tracking directly over the Twin Cities. We need a good 100 miles shift south and east for the metro to get big snow.

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    3. I would love to have a big snowstorm here in southern Minnesota, but who is even calling for that to happen??? All of the outlets this morning (PD, DD, PH, NWS, to name a few) are calling for rain and or mix in southern MN. PD mentions the possibility of maybe a couple sloppy inches of snow in the metro by Monday morning. All of the outlets that I have read about are saying western Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and northern Minnesota are going to get the heavy snow. I know it's only Wednesday morning. I sure hope the pattern of the storm tracking west reverses and tracks further east. Otherwise, this will be a great disappointment for snow lovers in southern Minnesota. We will have to resort to praying for another miracle like what occurred in December when the storm suddenly shifted southward at the last minute to take the heavy snow away from northern Minnesota and bring it over the Twin Cities.

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    4. Metro area gets hosed again!

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  27. Guys,relax!!!!.............instead of worrying or being disappointed over Sunday,look out your window at that moderate to even heavy snow falling right now,what I'm saying is "enjoy the moment",and since people are already looking towards Sunday,remember this its Wednesday a lot could and will change.......recall the late shift of the December storm as well as the Domebuster in 2010,we got this storm right where we want it,let it have a look of heavy snow north and west of us till Friday and then the southeast shift will take hold.........don't hang on every model run,be thankful a storm is coming,we will get snow out of this storm in the metro,question is how much.

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  28. This is how Sunday will go down,it will be rain to start so that our good friend Bill can board his plane and depart to the Sunshine state without any snow delays,as soon as Bill is safely in the air and on his way,an transition to heavy snow will occur and us snowlovers can be happy to fire the snowblowers up!

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  29. Big Daddy has got it right. Funny to see the worry about 5 days from now. I guess i should be used to it by now. The best thing for the Mero right now is that we are not expected to receive the heaviest snow . Meaning there is almost an 90% chance (my opinion) that the track will shift (and hopefully south).

    All in all, the 5 clipper prediction was phenomenal, even if Sunday's snow was a bit over-hyped. Not including today, I've totaled 6.9" of snow since Feb 1st (Northern Dakota County). Easy to shovel. Bring more.

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  30. The weekend system continues to be interesting. The mention of a mix, however, really wouldn't be an example of a the mid-atlantic effect that some are referring to. This is just basic warm sector/cold sector stuff. If we get into the cold sector of it, then it will be all snow. The cold air is available, it just needs to take a better track. Still need to watch for any shifts in the track, or changes in the temp profile. Still plenty of stuff to sort out, and still plenty of time for things to change. Probably wishful thinking, but I've lived here long enough to know that those changes have happened.

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    1. I agree that the track probably will change between now and Sunday. I too hope it changes in favor of the metro. I disagree that if it rains in the metro that it's not the Mid-Atlantic Effect. My understanding of the Mid-Atlantic Effect process is when the temperature in a specific region is cold enough for snow until an approaching storm takes a track that places that specific region in the warm sector so that it rains, and after the storm pulls away the weather gets cold again. Isn't that just "basic warm sector/cold sector stuff"?

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    2. I figured the Mid-Atlantic Effect was just a storm that didn't have the cold air available to make it into a snowstorm on the "cold" side. I could be wrong though. This has happened for many many years though, no matter if it is Dec, Jan, Feb, or March. A deep low passes to the west and we see more liquid than frozen stuff. And yes, the northeast is going to get slammed by that storm. Boston will likely break that record of 27.5 inches of snow when all is said and done. It's beasty.

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    3. I don't know that there's a specific thing called the Mid-Atlantic Effect. It's simply the way typical weather patterns work in that part of the country.... that it takes a lot of things to come together just right to produce significant snow. BUT, when the path works out right, the low tracks right over the ocean and it's dump city. Miss the major east coast snows (3 inches per hour not uncommon) but don't miss the cold misses. (Or the cold Mrs., but that would be another story. :-)

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  31. Before our system looks new england is going to destroyed by a classic nor'easter fri/sat. boston may disappear under 2-3' of snow. i will be getting very green with jealousy and envy if this unfolds.

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    1. Be careful on this one, the models are showing a major storm, but as the long term forecaster has said at ACCU weather, the phase of the northern jet and southern jet is a bit shaky, the is some upper air disturbance over northern Mexico that is not well sampled. My best guess is that will phase but just barely, confidence on that is about 60% at this time.

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  32. Wow. I did not know that was unfolding. A rare "blizzard watch" is in effect for Bosotn as I type this. I was living in Boston in Feb 2003 when 27.5" of snow fell, which is their all-time record.

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  33. "Holy crap,all the 5pm news stations led off talking about how two storms phase it will be a blizzard,their showing graphics of snow in excess of 2 feet,people panicking already and the stores are jammed"............this from my brother who lives in the NYC area.........I say lucky bastards!

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    1. I hear ya, Big Daddy. Jealous is the word.

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    2. @Bill....instead of Florida how about a detour to Boston,you can report on the clean up efforts and send pictures of their massive pile of snow....I hear its beautiful there this time of year! :)

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  34. I know its wunderground,but they are calling for up to 7" for metro on Sunday!,no where need the epic snowstorm that will hit the Northeast but nonetheless could be our biggest of the season as well if we exceed 10".

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  35. Hurricane hunters are over the Gulf of Mexico sampling the soon to be nor'easter. Looks like quite the storm for the Boston area.

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  36. CWY, nice post, see what I said at 6:08pm, tonight's runs of models, should make or break the noreaster, if not tomorrow's runs

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  37. As for this weekend, the 07/0z GFS has come in a little west, and brings us here at MSP a slop storm. The GFS and Euro the last few runs have been a bit inconsistent on the track, even though the Euro was showing the storm before any model. As of now I am thinking the FIM, GGEM, and UKMET are trying to target the metro, and that signal has been consistent. One thing is for certain, this system will not target the ARX to Madison area, it will nail the area just to our NW, or even the metro proper. Depending on how much gulf moisture can get sucked up into the warm sector of the storm it could be just a good panhandle hook type of storm or epic...time will tell.

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    1. looking at the overnight suite of models,not looking good for heavy snow in and around the metro area,even the favorable euro track is drifting west over time bring more warmer air into play,one would need to travel out of our county warning area to find heavy snows. A storm that once had promise for the metro now just falling into line with the majority of slop storms we have received this winter,hey at least we got to hang our hat on one decent storm this winter back in early December(seems forever ago!)

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  38. Patrick Hammer at KSTP tweeted this morning,"HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE MANY AREAS,INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES SUNDAY",not sure if thats something to get excited about since we knew it was possible ever since this storm reared its ugly head,sounds like a vague,non-committal statement to me.

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  39. How do I get more committal with 140 characters? Read the KSTP weather blog.

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    1. Just enter an official comment to the blog... that should allow 140,000 characters.

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  40. We are 3 days out and 100 miles from LOTS of forecasted snow. I'd say Hammer was spot on with his statement.

    Don't write this storm (or its forecasters) off yet! This should be the fun part...trying to figure out where this is going to hit!

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  41. PH did an excellent job this morning on his Updraft Blog explaining the current extremely varied model trends for this weekend's pending storm, and how each scenario would impact the metro with rain and/or snow. Of course, as a snow lover I am rooting for the Euro!!!! I assume that most of the regular viewers of TMF also read PH's blog, but in case you don't, or if you are new to weather blogs, here is the link to the Updraft Blog. Keep dancing PWL!!

    http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2013/02/model_mayhem_major_forecast_di.shtml

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  42. Strib has 40 and rain for Sunday.

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    1. Sven on Kare11 this morning was calling for 38 and rain for Sunday. He did say that the storm track is far from decided though.

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  43. Newest model data is in, and still nothing is set. The GFS, NAM, and SREF all favor a more northerly and western solution, while the European, Canadian, UKMET and Navy models all have a further south and colder solution. It's going to be a battle of the foreign models vs the American models. Normally, I would favor the foreign models because they have had a history of being more accurate with winter systems, but the GFS hasn't been all that bad as of late. The FIM I would say is probably somewhere in the middle of all of those. These differences are pretty major when it comes to precip type. It still looks like areas just west and north of the metro will see the most snow (unless there are further shifts with the track), but if we want more snow rather than rain, then we should be rooting on the foreign models.

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  44. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 7, 2013 at 1:01 PM

    There is one thing I want to say to the Euro model--BRING IT!! We know things shift and sway, especially before the storm even comes on the coast. So, let the GFS and NAM shifting begin. Don't they want to be more like the Europeans, anyway?? Wishful thinking, but I am dancing and bringin' it. C'mon. I am getting my hopes up. Bring It!

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  45. gotta question for everyone. with such a huge noreaster the next couple of days... will that slow things up and push our storm further west?? or will that big storm get outta there and let things keep rollin as if nothing happened?

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    1. Great question! Your answer is yes. The longer that storm hangs out east, the more it will bottle neck things and push the storm west. If it scoots on out of there a bit more rapidly, then a further south and east track will be achieved. This is why there is such a difference in the models now, is they are are all handling that storm differently. The storm that the midwest gets will really pale in comparison to the one they are going to get. Very classic nor'easter for them.

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  46. MPX just issued watches for far western and northern CWA.
    Albany, NY is the first office to issue a blizzard warning out east and that is for western CT.
    Boston and parts of NYC Forecast area still holding onto blizzard watches.

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  47. Someone at the NWS just got a confidence booster shot and has already declared a Winter Storm Watch for central MN!

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/9139880

    The Low isn't on land yet, is it?!

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    1. I believe our storm of interest is still approaching the west coast, but per the forecast discussion they issued it there because there is a higher confidence that those areas will see good snows. Areas to the south and east of there, however, will need to wait until the models figure out the thermal profile and path of the storm.

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  48. One thing to remember with our impending storm for Sunday,with regards to the great question above about the Nor'easter slow things up,our biggest snowfall was observed(Halloween blizzard) because things got bottled up on the east coast with the Perfect Storm 1........not saying this is the case here,just merely bringing up the possibility.......keep dancing PWL!(a few prayers wouldn't hurt either to the weather Gods).

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  49. Am I wrong or the NAM is doing the same thing it's been doing a couple of weeks ago with that other storm that was supposed to bring freezing rain and instead quickly turned to snow and we got 3 inches? That is although being further west cools down the column immediately so that the profiles looks much colder than the (slightly further east) GFS?
    I would expect dynamic cooling to play a big role in this storm given the expected strength?
    Am I totally wrong?
    Any thoughts?

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  50. Very good point @Big Daddy,anyone hearing any rumblings about a Halloween Blizard type of storm or even think its a possibility for us!

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  51. I got to tell you guys I'm abit worried/nervous about the Nor'easter/Nemo,some of you may or may not know that I'm. From the east coast(more specifically Long Island) when we were discussing Hurricane Sandy.Most of family lives in either NJ or out on Long Island,thus that is why I'm. Worried about this storm,you see I was born and raised on Long Island for 25 years before I moved here,lived thru and seen many storms like the Blizzard of '78,Storm of the Century in '93 and the Superstorm of '96,but I got to tell you this storm seems to dwarf those.............never have I seen a blizzard warning in effect at the same time as a hurricane force wind warning........I hope my parents and brothers hind the warnings and are prepared,they could be a stubborn bunch,but Sandy knocked them down a couple of notches and at least it seems their listening to me and Mother Nature!

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  52. I posted my initial thoughts for this weekends storm on my blog that you can get to by clicking my name. Sorry for the shameless plug but it is too long to re-post on here. I think snow lovers will be happy with my current thinking.

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    1. great disco Randy. I posted something yesterday that seems to go well with your thoughts. Sure the FIM finally decided to move to the west as it's initialized by the GFS but it took two runs to do it, and the latest is slightly south and east again. Your disco is much more detailed than mine, but in the end it likes the GEM/ UKIE track. Here is what I posted, based on the consistency of the GEM/UKIE.

      As for this weekend, the 07/0z GFS has come in a little west, and brings us here at MSP a slop storm. The GFS and Euro the last few runs have been a bit inconsistent on the track, even though the Euro was showing the storm before any model. As of now I am thinking the FIM, GGEM, and UKMET are trying to target the metro, and that signal has been consistent. One thing is for certain, this system will not target the ARX to Madison area, it will nail the area just to our NW, or even the metro proper. Depending on how much gulf moisture can get sucked up into the warm sector of the storm it could be just a good panhandle hook type of storm or epic...time will tell.


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  53. If you think the mets here have precip problems, think about the guys out in NYC. They could get 5 to 25" depending on where the 32 degree line sets up.

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  54. Hot off the press.....the 08/0z run of the GFS does not phase the east coast storm, the northern jet and southern jet miss each other, the southern storm goes out to sea and phases a bit later, expect the GFS to move our storm to south and east, a favored track for the metro.

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    1. however it did not do so,which seems strange to me, will love to see the other models come in tonight and see what they show, I think the higher resolution fim models will pick up on it.

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  55. These February storms are no big deal. The snow melts soon afterwards anyway. Spring is almost here! Can't wait.

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    1. looking at the MJO forecast going into phase 3-4 and possibly 5 as we head into march I would expect temps to run below average, possibly much below the 1981-2010, 30 year average. Any snow we get in Feb could be around by mid march.

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  56. One of the analog years I have been leaning on heavily is 1967, as I liked the conditions that where shown back then in November as compared to this November, there fore I was calling for DEC-Feb temps to run -2 compared to the 30 year average of 1981-2010. If it weren't for the major torch that we saw in the 1st part of DEC, I feel that it was pretty close. MY Feb forecast that I put out at the end of Jan of a -3° looks pretty good at this point.

    Here is what March 1967 looked like compared to the 1981-2010 average for temps.

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/71498824137215218png1967analogyear_zpse723ae64.png

    Notice the colder than normal air over NW Canada, and the warmer than normal air just to our south, the area between the colder air and warmer air is where the storm track should develop. The current MJO forecast is hinting at that as we move into phase's 2-4.

    To add fuel to the fire here is what the CFS V2 is showing.

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/summaryCFSv2NaT2m201303gifCFSforecast_zpsed2e394d.gif

    To me this looks like a very active and cold March, could it be what most of you young ones have heard from your elders of a major winter storm during Tourney time???? stay tuned....


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