Thursday, March 7, 2013

Complicated Forecast Shaping Up for This Weekend

As of this Thursday morning, forecasters had great uncertainty about what might unfold in the Upper Midwest this weekend. All the usual suspects -- rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow -- appear to be in the picture. As a sage person once said, "time will tell."

The NWS acknowledges a challenging weekend forecast.

100 comments:

  1. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 7, 2013 at 12:51 PM

    Let the first comment on this thread be: Bring It!!!

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  2. I've been burned way too many times in my life with set-ups like the one over the weekend.

    When in doubt, don't predict BIG snows unless:
    - You have a reservoir of Arctic air in place
    - Surface low tracks as least 150 mi. south of you.
    - Upper level divergence is strong above you.

    If you don't have all 3 together, then simply don't do it. I believe we have the last 2 covered, but I'm worried about the reservoir of Arctic air. Plus, the ECMWF is still not on board; this is a red flag. With that being said, I believe that liquid will be the calling card for MSP. However, you won't have to travel very far north for a different story.

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  3. Thanks for the input Novak,what I love is reading the uncertainity,reading your post and the NWS this afternoon their isn't a full grasp just yet,which means anything is possible,including a healthy snowfall in MSP.
    Winter Storm Watches are creeping into the picture,just one row of counties away from the metro........this could get interesting!
    @Bill thanks for the plug in your above new thread!

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  4. Paul Huttner says metro on edge of heavy snow,references the NAM model!

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  5. I pretty much agree with what Novak said above. I'm very confident that we'll see all rain beginning around midnight tomorrow night through Saturday in the Twin Cities. Where the forecast gets more difficult is Saturday night into early Sunday. It all depends on if the cold air can move far enough south while moisture is still present. I will be surprised if we didn't see at least a little snow on the backside of this system, but most likely only an inch or two. There is still time for things to change, but we are only a little over 24 hours from when rain will begin, and less than 48 hours from when snow will be possible. A nice 4-8" band should set up just to our northwest.

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  6. The ECMWF isnt God,its not always right.We can't disregard the other models and what their depicting with this system,the slighest shift south,just a mere 50 miles or so and the metro will be squarely in the heavier snowfall,that's how close the snow line is to the metro.This is far from settled,there's a whole 24 hours for the models to continue to play havoc with the forecast.

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  7. First met to throw out snow numbers for this weekend is Jonathan Yuhas,calling for mostly rain during Saturday,changing to snow at night with 1-3 inches by Sunday.We'll see!

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  8. @Sam G. you are right the ECMWF isn't God. But there isn't one model that doesn't bring us significant rain before any chance of snow. There is just too much warm air ahead of this system. The model discrepancies come later on Saturday with the rain/snow line. This is where the heavier snow could shift south, but right now I just don't think it is that likely. I'd agree with 1-3" for Saturday night into early Sunday.

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  9. The one time I'm really hoping Accuweather is correct,they are calling for rain/sleet to snow by Saturday night with 3-6 inch storm total by Sunday afternoon

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  10. Paul Douglas is on record for "a couple of slushy inches" by Sunday morning!
    I know everyone is leaning towards mostly rain,but when reading the NWS discussion this morning they still have concerns with what the thermal profile will look like,so the door is still open for a surprise according to them,they even mention when the intenstity of the precip picks up and if there is an convective element there could be bursts of sleet and/or snow.I like surprises,surprise me Mother Nature!

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  11. Confidence level is growing that the GEM has been the correct model to latch onto with this system. Since it's upgrade it has done a much better job. At any rate it now looks like there will be some deformation snows setting up over MN overnight Saturday into Sunday. Where? a bit to early to tell. It will however be fairly narrow, maybe 75-120 miles in width but it looks like it will be between St Cloud and Rochester. Best initial guess is from south west MN to Lakeville, Roseville to Hasting/Red Wing area, extending to the NW metro southeastward towards Rochester. How much? At this time the heaviest band my have 6-7" associated with it. I'm sure this will change and I sure hope King Euro gets on board with the GEM, UKMET, and The NAM, The GFS is now leaning that way.

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    1. @Randyinchamplin if I'm reading your post correctly your including the metro in this heavier deformation snow zone?and that your saying the Euro is an outlier compared to all others for this system?

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    2. Initial thoughts only is that the heaviest band will set up from the Lakeville to Rosemount area, and points south and east from there. To your second question a resounding yes, it has had problems since it picked up the energy ejecting out of the SW US for several days, it finally caved to the other global models bringing it out as more of a open wave as opposed to a upper level closed low. It flipped on that a couple of days ago.

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    3. check on the second part of that last post that was incorrect info, sorry in regards to the energy ejecting out. but it has been at odds with the Gem with depicting how the surface low would react, the GFS was with it, but the GFS is now hinting at moving towards the gem.

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  12. Randyinchamplin your going out on a big limb there,most everyone has indictated that the heaviest of the snow will be St.Cloud and points north of there,your suggesting that it will be considerable south,skipping the core of the metro altogether,interesting indeed,fun times ahead figuring this out!

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  13. Yes confusing as the Winter Storm watch is even for north / northwest of the Cities. Novak's latest tweet agrees with Randy it appears.

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  14. NWS has just posted a WSW for the St. Cloud area for freezing rain and sleet tonight turning to snow tomorrow. A WWA has been posted for the Metro for sleet and freezing rain tonight turning to rain tomorrow. Hmmmm.....who is right???

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  15. I believe this will be a very dangerous situation for driving,1/4 of ice is no joke,which is what the NWS is calling for in the advisory area,hopefully the warmer air gets here or it will be a skating ring all day,I rather have all rain or all snow,its very difficult to drive on ice.

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  16. Paul Douglas's mid-morning update now calls for 2-4 inches of snow after the rain transitions to snow Saturday night,kinda of goes in line with what Novak and Randyinchamplin are saying...........the snow on the backside of this is increasing over time.

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  17. Well, the way this fuggin winter has gone, I fully expect to see a fresh coating of six inches or more when I wake up Sunday. I suppose it's better that it happens on a weekend though.

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  18. I keep hearing that an inch of rain is going to fall on the Metro tomorrow and that there will be very little moisture left for snow once the colder air comes in Saturday night. Has that thinking now changed?

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  19. Dave Dahl just said on 1500-AM that the Metro should receive at least a quarter of an inch of rain tomorrow (heavy at times). He said that there should be very little moisture left over for snow, that the Metro could possibly get 1-2 inches on the backside of the storm, at the most.

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  20. Drip, drip, drip... spring is almost here!

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  21. NWS is now calling for a .25 to .50 inch of rain in the Metro tomorrow, which should then be followed by 3-6 inches of snow from late tomorrow night to noon Sunday.

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    1. NWS has not committed to 3-6 inches for Sat. Night/Sun,the most they have for metro is 1-3 after the changeover!where did you see 3-6?

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    2. I'm seeing 3-6 as well, it's in the 7 day forecast for Burnsville (55337).

      Saturday Night: New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
      Sunday: New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

      http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Burnsville&state=MN&site=MPX

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    3. Hey Big daddy, I just checked the NWS forecast. This is what they have written.

      Saturday Night Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 25. Light and variable wind becoming north northwest 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

      Sunday Snow likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

      I think that is where people are getting the 3-6 inches.

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    4. Thank you Neil and Snow Miser,I see that now,they must think my area will get less(Golden Valley)cuz they have 1-3 Sat.night then an inch for Sunday,so I guess 2-4 for my area.
      But reading randyinchamplin's post down below nobody's getting anything!

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  22. Quite frankly, I'm lacking confidence right now with any model solution. Because of this, I'm afraid to commit to any snow totals until the 00z model data is available. Anybody that has tried to accurately predict how much snow we will get overnight Saturday and into Sunday am is asking for trouble. Sometimes it is OK to simply say, "we don't know yet".

    One thing is for sure, we are going to receive a lot of liquid tomorrow and that will quickly eat away at our deep snow pack.

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    1. Well stated, Novak! Sometimes it is ok for people to just say that they don't know. The mindset in our society seems to be that there MUST always be a ready answer, but the reality is that there isn't always a ready answer available.

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  23. I'm that guy: chopping channels to the storm drains.

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  24. NWS was contemplating going with a winter storm watch for Saturday night/Sunday for a band of moderate/heavy snowfall of several inches but they were uncertain of where to put it due to the models being all over the place so they hold off for now....time will tell as always!

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  25. As I mentioned earlier, the King Euro was a outlier this morning when compared to other models. The HPC (now known as the Weather Prediction Center) boys and girls were riding the Euro as shown by this, the key here is convective feedback.

    " ...DEEP SRN STREAM LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN CA EJECTING ACROSS THE
    SW/FOUR-CORNERS TODAY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THEN MS
    VALLEY/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO MON...
    ...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
    NRN MS VLY/UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...

    MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
    CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

    THE MODELS SEEM FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED THROUGH SAT. BY SUN...THE
    CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OPENS UP TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z
    GFS/NAM HAD TRENDED FASTER WITH THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE
    SFC-500 MB TROUGHS DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY RESULTING FROM
    CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GULF IS DRAWN INTO
    THE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE NOW
    SLOWED TOWARD CONCENSUS AND THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET ARE REASONABLY
    IN LINE AS WELL. WPC RECOMMENDED OF A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
    OVERNIGHT THAT SEEMED BEST IN LINE WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF GEFS/EC
    MEMBERS. A 12Z GFS BLEND WITH THE STILL SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE
    00Z ECMWF PROBABLY SEEMS REASONABLE NOW GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS."

    What this means is that convective feedback caused the surface low to lift to fast to the NE.

    The 18z Nam (I know some people put zero confidence in the off runs) has now taken a sharp dive towards the Euro solution.

    I as was eluding to earlier in this thread, my initial forecast was just that and nothing more, and concerned back side snows on Sunday.

    What I think will happen is this. The surface low will form on the lea side of the Rockies and than be shunted to the east southeast from there into the southern OH/Tennessee Valley area and be lifted straight north into the central lakes area. Most of the deformation snows will set up well to our southeast and impact Eastern IA, Northern IL, and SE WI. What ever snow flakes we get will likely melt during the Mix precip event and will not be measurable at 6 hr intervals.

    I am now buying into the Euro hook line and sinker, snowfall for this system for the metro 0-1". Final snowfall forecast.

    I will beg out of the freezing rain disco, please follow the NWS guidance when it comes to this, they are the best bar none.

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  26. This is from the Area Forecast Discussion. In other words the reason behind the forecast. I read this after I posted my disco.

    "THE SYSTEM BECOMES FURTHER COMPLEX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
    MORNING WITH MODELS GENERATING ANOTHER POST-FRONTAL BAND OF MDT-
    HVY SNOW FROM SC MN NEWD INTO WC WI. THE EC IS THE ONLY MODEL TO
    NOT HAVE THIS AT ALL AND SEEMS MUCH TOO PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO
    THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. AMONG THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THIS NARROW
    BAND OF SNOW IS DISPLACED DOZENS OF MILES IN EITHER DIRECTION.
    COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GIVEN
    THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FINAL BAND...AND THAT
    UPSTREAM OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF...DECIDED TO ALSO FORGO A WINTER
    STORM WATCH FOR NOW."

    When they mention that the EC is the only model not showing the snow band they are talking about the European Community.

    I agree that a Winter Storm Watch is not warranted for the metro, the advisory is right imo.

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    1. @randyinchamplin...what are you referring to when you say "...disco"?

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    2. Disco is short for discussion.

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  27. Its settled then no snow for the metro,so with tommorrows rain and the warming temps into the 40's that people are mentioning winter is over and spring will be here in a week!

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  28. I'll agree that this storm will be mostly rain and the likelihood of snow is waning for the Twin Cities. Still can't completely rule it out, but I wouldn't bet on it. As for winter being over and the thoughts of us quickly moving into spring? I just don't see it. The pattern for the next two weeks looks much more like winter than spring. It's going to be a slow, uphill climb to melt the snow and get temperatures into the 50s and 60s. I also don't think we are done with snow for even the next week, let alone the remainder of winter/spring.

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  29. Looking at the completed NAM run, and the partial run of the GFS really aren't clearing things up too much yet. There are still differences with the deformation zone of the low moving across northern IL and southeast WI. The NAM is much more isolated with the snow band and keeps most of the accumulations in south central and southeast WI. The GFS on the other hand is further west with the snow, with decent accumulations possible southeast of a line from Albert Lea, MN to Eau Claire WI, to Park Falls, WI. The GEM, which just came in as I type this, also shows the same general area as the GFS does. The SREF is less aggressive but has a wide range in its ensembles. For example the low end is .03 inches of snow, while the high end is 7.23 inches. So yet again there is plenty of disagreement to be sorted through. It will be interesting to see what the European model does with this. If the Euro is on board with what the GFS and Canadian show then don't be too surprised if they decide to throw up a Winter Storm Watch along and southeast of that line mentioned above. At the very least, ARX will probably have to throw some type of watch up since certain parts of their area have good snows from all of the models. MPX may decide to wait until tomorrow mornings 12z runs before doing anything (if they need to), or they could just go ahead and jump the gun and put the watches up. Overall this is a really interesting storm system to follow, and certainly a challenging one given there could be rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow in play. More to come later...

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  30. We can pretty much call this a non-winter event for MSP with what Duane and Randyinchamplin alluded to above and with temps at this hour still running in the mid 30's sleet/freezing should be a non-factor as well,enjoy the plain old rain!--boring!

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  31. At this point in time, yes Anonymous you are correct. A majority of this system for the MSP area will be in the form of that boring rain, with some icing mixed in during the morning hours...all thanks to an inverted trough extending northeast from a low in Kansas. This rain is actually pretty badly needed but unfortunately the ground is so frozen solid, it will do nothing but provide extra run off for our rivers and streams in the spring (not a bad thing considering most of the rivers are running low). This main low will eventually move northeast towards northern IL and SE WI, and that is where things get interesting. The new run of the Euro is in, and it's on board with the GFS and GEM. The far southeastern part of MN, and a decent chunk of WI look to be under the gun at this point, with the line I mentioned in my previous post but I may trim it up a bit more and make it SE of a Rochester to Eau Claire to Park Falls line. I realize at this point it doesn't mean much for the MSP area but I know there are other people on here from other parts of the state so I'm just posting what I'm seeing at the moment. We all know how quickly things can shift. Just look at the last storm. :)

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  32. NWS has eliminated all mention of snow for the Metro. That 3-6 inches they were forecasting last night has gone the way of the dodo bird. The TMF guys were right again. I'm coming here for my forecasts for now on. Good work guys!

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  33. I agree the NWS wasn't stellar with handling this system,but this storm was a tricky one from the start when they mentioned how complicated and complex this system would be,its easy to be an armchair quarterback during and after a storm passes,but their job is to put out a forecast which they did their best.
    Some observations thus far:
    Sleet/freezing rain was a non-factor
    WWA was too far south
    Temps in the metro core did not drop to near/below freezing
    1" rains at the moment look too much
    WSW looks iffy as well

    I do still hope that we get "some snow" tonight,so me and the kiddos have fresh powder to tube on tommorrow!

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    1. Nobody is being an armchair quarterback. The forecast was tricky for both the NWS and the TMF guys. They both put out their forecasts at the same time. The TMF guys got it right for the Metro and the NWS got it wrong. That's a fact. That doesn't mean the NWS will get it wrong next time or that the TMF guys will be right next time. However, it does seem that the TMF guys have a pretty good track record going.

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    2. I agree with your assessment of the NWS performance (so far).

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  34. I'm still shocked that there is NOT model consensus at this stage of the game. With that being said, I will error on the side of the NAM/ECMWF and throw out the P.O.S. GFS solution.

    Two bands of precip. to deal with. The first one over the next 6 hours. This will dump accumulating snows north of the MSP metro from STC to DLH and plain old rain over so. MN incl. the MSP metro.

    The second (stronger) band develops Sunday AM over KS/IA and slides NE into WI. This band of snow has better dynamics to work with along with a 700mb deformation zone. This band of snow will be heavy and wet but will miss the MSP metro.

    So, in other words, the MSP metro gets skunked on this one except for a coating or so of snow.

    Sorry snow lovers.

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    1. @Novak when you say the P.O.S GFS,what is it saying?does it bring more snow further north into MSP?

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  35. looks like based on the model consensus from this morning minus the Nam, Headlines will be needed along the line Duane mention before. Cant wait for the Euro, have to go to work. The other 4 models are fairly aggressive with the snowfall amounts.

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  36. So in essence another winter-time storm takes a favorable track through Iowa and MSP is on the northwest side and we get no snow,how many times has this happened this wnter?too many!

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    1. The NWS snowfall prediction product shows at least an inch of snow in every direction of the Metro for today through tomorrow. However, the actual Metro is a snow-free donut hole. Location, location, location. Go figure!

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  37. Have to keep an eye on the heavy snow band that will develop tomorrow. Should stay mostly south of MSP but could brush the very southern suburbs, especially if there is any further northward movement. 6-12" is looking very possible for southeast Minnesota including Rochester.

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    1. WOW! Not even a watch/warning/advisory in the area you talk about,with flakes suppose to fly in 12hrs,now that's surprise bust in the other direction that is pretty huge.

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  38. Randy. Down here in Rochester! What did you say? Was that a typo? Just listened to my weather radio and they said 1-3! Zooouzer

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  39. After looking at all of the 12z runs, the only model that is not on board with heavy snow in southeast MN is the NAM. EURO, GFS, and GEM all show it. There would a little light snow in the the morning, but the main event would begin late tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

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    1. Randy, what are the chances looking like for snow down here in the Lakeville/Apple Valley area?

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  40. And as of 2:45 pm we are now in a winter storm watch! Quite a change. Nice call Randy.

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    1. Nice job Randy! Now "will" that snow further north, please!

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  41. Something I've never seen before is a winter storm warning just to our north and a winter storm watch just to our south,and nothing for us!........aren't we so lucky to live in a doughnut(sarcasm!)

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  42. I was thinking the same thing, big daddy. Very frustrating indeed!

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    1. Wow! Talk about drawing the short straw!!!

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  43. To all of the resident meteorologists (amateur & pro), is there any realistic chance that the Winter Storm Watch might be pulled farther north towards the Metro?

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    1. Resounding "NO"!,not according to the models,but anything is always possible,kinda of like a 80 on St.Patricks Day(last year)!

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  44. Tell me why there's still a WSW to our north and west....it hasn't snowed there in hours.......and todays bust goes to St.Cloud,under a winter storm warning all day and they have gotten less then a inch of snow.

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  45. Nice narrow band of moderate/heavy precip aiming straight for metro at this hour...will it be rain or snow?

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    1. I answered my own question......its rain......still.......so much for rain changing to snow Saturday night!

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  46. Not a single flake of snow in Burnsville from this system. About 24 hours ago the NWS was talking about rain turning to snow with 3-6 inches down here. So much for that. The NWS is now saying that we will be lucky if we see a flake from tonight's system that is to pass just to our south and east. My guess is that they will be right about that. When they say it won't snow, it usually doesn't. When they predict snow, there is a 50/50 chance at best that it will snow. Tired of this nonsense. I'm ready for Spring.

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    1. I have a hard time bashing the NWS,and usually don't,but I totally agree with you that they missed the boat with their forecasts over the past 2 days,NWS mets are just like all other mets,sometimes they will get it wrong! But their were some galoring busts with this one,from the headlines being placed incorrectly(and continous trimming thru the day)as well as holding onto the warning area way too long,sleet/ice never materializing in the metro area,tempeartures never cooled to freezing Fri. Night/Sat. Morning nor drop into the 20's for last night as forecasted,rain never changed to snow,so the 1-2 inches never materalized.I know Bill you have gone away from the grading system,but if there was ever a time the NWS deserved an "F" this would be it with all their misses above.Icing on the cake would be if we actually saw measurable snow today and tonight when they have said snow won't occur as far north as the metro(but when reading the latest aviation forecast for KMSP they do express some "concern" that snow will reach the airport).

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    2. Agree. Essentially, this was simply a rainy weekend. In some fairness to the NWS, they did warn us that it was a complicated forecast. But still, they butchered it. Also, I'm not sure any of the other forecasters (TV, MPR and Strib) did much better.

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    3. I agree. There was no winter weather whatsoever in the Metro, except for some stray lost snowflakes this morning. It was a rainy weekend...period.

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  47. Windblown steady light snow in Rosemount over the past half hour. It's not amounting to anything. It's just white rain, but it's fun to watch.

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    1. I just spotted two very confused snow flakes in St. Paul.

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  48. Given recent model trends, I would suspect the warnings to be expanded another tier of counties (maybe two) to the WSW, as well as the advisory. The extreme SE metro may end up getting in a few inches of snow from this system but again the cutoff will be sharp with this. Totals drop off sharply to the NW of there.

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    1. Thanks Duane, I hope you're right. Hmmmm, the NWS hasn't bought into it yet. They have increased the chance of snow tonight in Apple Valley from 30% to 50%, but they make no mention of any accumulations. Randy Hill, Novak, randyinchamplin...what say you?

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  49. Extremely sharp gradient to the snow when driving southeast from Plymouth to Rosemount to Rochester. Plymouth will be lucky to get a coating while Rosemount shovels a good 2"-4" and Rochester gets dumped on with 6"-10"+ of heavy, concrete-like snow.

    This is a real bummer for those snow lovers who live in the northwest 1/2 of the MSP metro. They are going to be cursing at the skies when they see how much snow fell only 50 to 100 miles away from them.

    All in all, a difficult storm to predict over the last 24 hours given the model solutions from only 1 day ago.

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    1. I hereby diagnose you with Snow Lover's Amnesia (SLA) and remind you of the 8-10 inches we received less than a week ago.

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    2. @Disco80 we haven't forgotten,I just went tubing in that 8-10 we got......but we always want more,we want every drop of precip that falls from November thru March to fall in the form of snow,hell if you ask the snow lovers in here they would love to see a blizzard on April 15th!I know I would,anything to delay spring and the summer to follow,I would rather deal with a blizzard in April then dealing with heat indexes!

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  50. So close......yet so far away......I would like to just reach out and grab that slow moving green glob on radar and pull it north!

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  51. agree with Duane and Novak, I really don't see a need to extend the advisory any further north/west than what the NWS has. How ever those counties that are in a advisory may see snows that meet warning criteria. The cut off for snow is extremely sharp.

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  52. I believe that's it,been watching the radar on and off for the last 2 hours and the push north looks to have come to a halt,so if its snowing where you are it will continue to snow and if its not snowing where you are at and want to see snow falling hop onto I-35 and drive south for about 50 miles!

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    1. I'm afraid you're right, big daddy. The snow appears to have literally stopped just short of our doorway here in Rosemount. Talk about being as close as possible without getting a flake.

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  53. Not sure what others are seeing but here in Vermillion(Dakota county) snow is coming down in a heavy clip

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    1. That's my point. I just checked and saw that Vermillion is getting a good steady snow while here in Rosemount it's doing absolutely nothing.

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    2. @Snow Miser.....I feel your pain...how far is Vermillion from you,like 10 miles!

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    3. Yes, big daddy, approximately 10 miles. Full disclosure, we are now getting some renegade flakes here in Rosemount, but that's it so far. I am hoping that Mom Nature gives the snow shield a little nudge farther north. Time will tell.

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  54. NWS has extended winter storm warning a touch north to include Red Wing area now,they have a graphical nowcast up showing an area of snow falling at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour...........so damn close,amazing how weather can draw "a line in the sand" like that!

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  55. I'm in Red Wing and this has been an interesting one.

    Yesturday we were forecasted from the NWS to get less than half an inch possible, while Wabasha County was under a Winter Storm Watch & hinting at 3-5 for a short 15 miles away in LC.

    This morning it was 1-2 possible, with Lake City under a Winter Storm Warning and looking at 3-7.

    Now we are under a warning, 4-8 possible on NWS, and it's coming down heavy and steady and doesn't look like it's going to stop anytime soon.

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  56. Flurries here in Hudson,Wisc.,just over the MN border.I was told we weren't going to see any snow from this tonight,what's the deal is this it or will I be waking up to inches of snow?somebody please tell me!

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  57. Stead light snow in Rosemount. We have picked up a dusting so far.

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  58. Snowing in Woodbury!

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  59. Novak/Randy Hill/Randyinchamplin/Duane.........can you guys tell me/explain how such a tight gradient in precip(like tonight)can occur,its like a wall of snow comes right up to the metro and stops.
    Also I see NWS has chances of snow from Friday thru Sunday,is there another potential of a storm next weekend,or will it be a tease all week and turn to rain in the end!

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    1. The way I see it, the storm track was just too far south and east of the metro for it to really be impacted. With storms that far away you generally need an inverted trough and the cold air for it to be a good snow for the metro with that track. The trough was there initially but as you know it was warm so it ended up being rain rather than snow. Now the track is well south and east of the ideal track so those areas generally affected by this particular track are. I'm sure there are other things going on as well but that's pretty much the basic reason...bad storm track for the Twin Cities and a good one for Wisconsin.

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    2. Thanks Duane.

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  60. Down here in Roch the roads are absolutely terrible! With the frozen slush from Saturday's event underneath the 8 inches of snow from last night it is an absolute mess if you have to drive. Otherwise the heavy wet snow is stuck to trees, and power lines, and everything else. A wintery scene to say the least.

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  61. So are we done with the snow for this winter season?(hey Bill,maybe a title for your latest thread?)I'm not talking flurries/snow showers that might whiten the ground,I'm talking meaningful snows where were measuring inches and the NWS is fumbling around on where to place headlines and I need to bust out a snowblower!
    Dave Dahl speaks of a few "ripples"(not on my potato chips,but in the atmosphere)this week are they going to drop any meaningful snows?

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  62. Don't worry big daddy, we are not done with accumulating snows. Our next storm will be a clipper that moves through Friday. MSP will be riding the rain/snow line, but some areas, especially north of here, will pick up accumulating snow.

    The storm that I am most interested in would be late next Sun-Tues. This honestly looks like it could be the twin brother of our March 3-5th storm, exactly two weeks later. There are a number of similarities, but the models are just starting to come together on this one. Cold air should not be a problem, but it is too early to tell if MSP will be in the direct path of the heaviest snows. This may not even be the last one for the month of March.

    As I mentioned in a previous post, those of you looking for spring might need to take vacation down south. It's going to take us awhile to get there this year.

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    1. Thanks Randy,I love hearing what your saying,as another member of this blog says........"keep bringing it"!

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    2. Randy, I too am watching the period of next Sun-Tues. There is a pretty good chance of a major early spring storm setting up. Currently the GFS and the Euro are showing a inverted surface trough setting up for the 1st part of that time frame, as a matter of fact it looks negatively tilted, and that would bring 4-7" of snows close to home. As the surface low moves to our south and than cuts up strongly into the central lakes area it bombs out into a very impressive system, east of Chicago. Now there is a very strong West based NAO advertised by all the models. Looking at the 500mb charts coupled with the surface charts I think the models are to far east in developing the surface low. There seems to be a bit of weakness over Canada just north of the Green Bay area. I think the surface low will track more towards the Chicago area. Although this track is normally not favored for heavy snows here in the metro, this system looks very strong indeed and could bring accumulating snows to eastern MN.

      This will fun to watch.

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  63. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 11, 2013 at 9:37 PM

    Bring it. Keep bringing it!!! Waiting for Monday. Can hardly wait.

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  64. Hey Bill...Sun-Tues next week looks like a perfect candidate for a fresh post for discussion!

    The NWS is already on it in their discussion, and even throwing out snow totals a week out. They even use the B-WORD towards the end!

    NEXT
    IMPORTANT ITEM OF WX BUSINESS CONCERNS CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY ROBUST
    LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
    INTO MONDAY MORNING. GENESIS REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR
    OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC JUST WEST OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
    IF CURRENT TRACK OF SURFACE CYCLONE REMAINS INTACT...LOOK FOR
    AT LEAST THREE TO FOUR INCHES AND POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8
    INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
    BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE MONDAY EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT
    ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING OF SURFACE CYCLONE AND STRONG 1032MB
    SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS LEE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN
    PROVINCES COULD SET US UP FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
    MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
    SHOULD FALL AS SNOW...WITH ONLY RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED
    OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF MN.

    Someone get PWL a mop!

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  65. New thread added: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2013/03/nws-eyes-several-snow-deposits-in-our.html

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