Monday, March 25, 2013

Play Ball! Eyes on the Weather for Opening Day


Sunset on March 25
Thursday, March 28: Forecasts for the Twins opener are now tightly bunched between 33 and 35. Notably, KARE has dropped its forecast high by 15 degrees since Monday evening.

Tuesday, March 26: Virtually all weather outlets significantly reduced forecast high temps for Opening Day, with several even expressing that their already cold temps might be conservative. At this point, it appears that KSTP was the first to see a trend that the others are just now picking up on.

On Monday, April 1, the sounds of scraping shovels and slush-busting footsteps will give way to the more universal sounds of spring – the crack of the bat, the ump’s request  to “Play Ball” and screams of “circle me Bert.” In fact, we here at The Minnesota Forecaster anticipate Opening Day with the same eagerness of the season’s first Winter Storm Warning -- which is to say, a lot.

With a winter that’s sticking around like a mother-in-law that can’t find the door, many have been wondering weather some semblance of spring weather will return by the time Joe Mauer takes his first base on balls. As of this Monday night, a week before Opening Day, there were differences of opinion as to whether any "warmth" would find its way to Target Field for the Twins first game of the season.

KSTP forecasts the coldest temperature, envisioning a winter-like 38 degrees for Opening Day. In contrast, WCCO and KMSP pictured a somewhat spring-like high of 48. The Twins official forecaster, Craig Edward (MPR) was not quite ready to commit to a forecast. Differences of opinion: we like it.

Here’s a recap of the forecasts we retrieved on Monday evening. Blue font represents forecasts on Tuesday evening. Purple font represents forecasts on Thursday evening.

WCCO: Partly cloudy, 48 (6 p.m.)/Partly cloudy 36 (6 p.m.)/
KSTP: Partly cloudy, 38 (website)/ 38 says could be colder (6 p.m.)/33
KMSP: Partly cloudy, 44 (website)/34 says could be colder (5 p.m.)/33
KARE: Partly cloudy, 48, Partly cloudy, 42 (6 p.m.)/33
NWS: Mostly sunny, 40/Mostly sunny 32 (weather.gov)/33
Strib: 45 (no mention of sky conditions)/waiting for update
MPR: “It is still a bit far out to start posting details on the weather for opening day, but the GFS model from today favors an OK afternoon next Monday. You'll have to stay tuned.” (blog update at 3:49)/blustery, hard time reaching 40
TWC: Partly cloudy, 41 (website)/Partly cloudy, 37, winds NW at 16 mph/35
Accuweather: Partial sunshine, 50, winds north at 11 mph, gusting to 30 mph/Partly sunny, 40, winds WNW 6-21 mph/35
TMF: Tigers 6, Twins 1. Verlander with 9Ks/Tigers 3, Twins 1/Tiger 2, Twins 0

17 comments:

  1. Agreed too far out to say for certain the temp at game time one week away. Personal opinion though is that Accu, KARE, KMSP, and WCCO are all too warm. I would lean towards an NWS, KSTP, and TWC thinking, but will hold off on what I think the temp will be at game time until we get closer. Hard to believe opening day really is only a week away. I wonder how the organization feels about not having a retractable roof in times like this.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Things are changing already....TWC has a high of 32(phone app) and accuweather is now forecasting 39,also NWS has added 20% of rain/snow showers......doesn't look like a picture perfect opener to me,I think they'll get the game in but it will be a downright chilly one if your sitting in the stands(I bet there will be a lot of shots of the crowd huddled inside/under a blanket).BTW,next week looks downright chilly as well,it will be a struggle most days to top 40,I could see another stretch of 30 degree highs,question remains will any decent moisture get thrown into the mix to have an April snowstorm.Time will tell!

    ReplyDelete
  3. yr.no says a high of 32 Monday! Glad we've got a roof!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Monday's forecast high's really don't surprise me much. I know it will warm up a bit this weekend as a system approaching from the south brings warmer air in. As we go forward into the start of April we need to pay strong attention to the models and their ensembles with respect to how they portray the Telleconnection indices. A one or two day warm up to near normal is always in the cards, but those indices are critical for the overall pattern.

    We continue to see a strong Neg west based NAO with a neutral to slightly negative EPO. I wished the sight that I use could get a handle of the Euro's AO reading, but sometimes it's really difficult getting info out of that model. I know Duane has it.

    I'm waiting for the EPO to go towards the positive side as that would put us into a more zonal flow with winds out of the west. Currently it's negative and is forecast to stay that way which should leave us in a mean flow out of the NW (like I said we could get a system that shows a one or two day warm up), but the overall signal should be out of the NW.

    It's hard to explain but based on several of the teleconnections I am looking to below normal temps for April, although it may warm up near the end of the month, I don't see it overcoming the cold at the start.

    Here is the site I use. The teleconnection parameters are found on the upper left.

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

    BTW the EPO is stronger than I remembered when I started this post.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Randyinchamplin does any of this translate into more snow for us going into April?

      Delete
  5. Home opener will be uncomfortable sitting in those stands,temps in the low to mid 30's with a NW wind gusting over 20mph,wind chills at times will be in the single digits,this is no April Fools joke,where's our spring weather?

    ReplyDelete
  6. At least the opening series are day games with some sun shining down to warm up the bodies in the stands. In the shade, it will feel noticeably colder. Going to the April 12 game vs Mets on a Friday night so I guess I will pack accordingly just in case. :)
    It will be cold in a lot of stadiums this opening week including Turner Field here in ATL after the Monday opener which will be in the 60s/near 70 but cloudy with chance of rain. Then colder.

    #StillWaitingForSpring

    ReplyDelete
  7. PD's blog today indicates the Euro may give us some snow next Thursday/Friday and mentions the GFS wanting to bring a big storm in here April 7th/8th timeframe,showing a map from the GFS with a low tracking through eastern Iowa and heavy precip shield over MN and says temps will be marginal with a rain/snow mix possible and then,yes its the unreliable GFS but he shows temps after this storm to be stuck in the 30's for a few days........so what are your thoughts on these?any truth to them?are we or are we not done with the snow?and finally when is spring going to show up and stay(don't get me wrong,I'm loving this delayed spring,just asking is all.)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 29, 2013 at 5:14 PM

    What? I can get excited again? For snow? An April snowstorm would be awesome. I am ready for warm weather, but this post got be all excited again. Bring it!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Stop the snow talk already,its done,winter is over and after this 3 day stay in the 30's the cold will be over as well.
    Sign of the season change:who was awaken but the rumbles of thunder overnight?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Yep, I agree. Just spent all yesterday removing all plow equipment from trucks, blowers off of Bobcats, walk blowers treated with fuel stabilizers, put away snow shovels THEN pulled all Landscape equipment/ trailers/ Mowers/ blowers/ trimmings/ chain saws / Steel shovels /rakes/ dethatchers/ Aeration equipment / sprayers/ Fert. spreaders / all the goodies AND picked up 2 mow accounts..all in one day.
    MNPLOWCO. NOW..... MNMOWCO ?

    PS. Time to see the green ($$$)

    ReplyDelete
  11. After a brief cool down on Monday, it looks like the pattern is starting to look more like spring. Plenty of melting should be occurring over the next couple weeks so the water level on rivers should be making their way up as well. I hope I'm not jinxing us by saying this, but I do think that we're done with the snowstorms until next season. Some light snow is certainly still possible but the big events should be done with until next winter. It looks like the polar jet is slowly retreating back to the north so systems won't have that tap of cold air to be able to produce snow. Now, we worry about flooding and of course the eventual severe threat that we see each spring and summer. Winds kick up on Sunday into Monday and the baseball opener is still looking chilly. Highs on Monday prob won't get above freezing, or be right at freezing. I'm going 31 for a high on Monday, with game time temps around 28. Winds will be breezy so wind chills will probably be in the low to mid teens. Happy spring everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Not a big fan of snow, but I still appreciated this March. Last March, though a nice reprieve from the usual, was freakish and weird. Magnolias blooming mid-March? That's not right. March of 2013 is more like it. With this said, I'm ready for spring!

    ReplyDelete
  13. So both MSP and Lacrosse NWS have added more snow to the grids starting on Friday and thru the weekend.........what's the deal?...I thought we were warming up starting Wednesday and now I see snow mentioned with temps marginal for snow at night.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I knew I was probably going to jinx things. That system next weekend will have to be watched. Things may end up being mostly rain with snow further north but a lot is up in the air with that. This part of the fun of living here. Things can change quickly. Way to early to say exactly how much precip will end up falling, or it's type. Eventually a trough will develop out west and put us into more of a SW flow as opposed to a NW flow. The AO and NAO are forecast to go positive, and the PNA is forecast to go neg in about a week, so while we will eventually see things warm this week, hopefully those bigger shifts and even warmer temps begin to show next week as well. Maybe nature is going to throw one final curve before all is said and done. Personally, I hope it's rain and thunderstorms. Pattern changes can bring interesting events, so let's see how this one plays out.

    ReplyDelete
  15. The weather is very changeable these days,as it is every April as we transition further into spring(much later start this season though),but I think its premature for whomever forecasts our weather to use words like "likely" one week in advance,like one of TMF's key contributer has on social media when he declared 60's and 70's LIKELY this coming weekend,while our NWS has much colder surface temps hanging in the low to mid 40's Friday thru Sunday and even mentions chances of snow,so what does the rest of TMF nation think of these developments for our upcoming weekend?

    ReplyDelete