Monday, January 13, 2014

Clipper Losing Steam?

An Alberta Clipper seemed to be losing a bit of steam as the next snow "event" was on the doorstep. Here are a few forecasts we gathered on Monday evening:

WCCO: 1-3"
KSTP: 2-4"
KMSP: Mentioned both 1-3" and 2-4"
KARE: 1-3"
MPR: 1-3"
NWS: 2-4"
The Weather Channel: 1-2" plus "less than inch" Tuesday.
Accuweather: 1-3"

You can view our new video with Tom Novak from Novak weather here.

22 comments:

  1. All these seem legit, although I'd trend towards 1-2 for the MSP area. The heaviest area will probably fall east of a line from Waterloo, IA to Rochester, MN to Menomonie, WI. Those areas will probably see those 2-4+ inch totals especially the further east into Wisconsin you go. Areas NW of the metro may lose their advisory early, unless the blowing snow factor comes into play. We continue to watch the wind situation for Thursday, but the way things have gone so far I wouldn't be surprised if the models just got rid of that one too...ha!

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  2. Clipper seems to be right on track as it was indicated a few days ago. Maybe I missed something on my occasional checks of the latest forecast? Round one of the snow is moving across the metro/ern and sern Minnesota this evening. Radar & sat loops show the next round in NoDak headed SE. Snowfall forecasts are reasonable with the areas ESE of metro seeing greater amounts as surface low winds up and then makes a turn to the ENE giving wrn/ctrl Wisc opportunity for initial warm air advection area and then the upper level vort max track region.
    Big news this weekend possibly climaxing tonight at 11:01pm CT if the weather network in Atlanta has the switch pulled on them via DirecTV? Then Accuweather took advantage of today to move up announcement of their new 24/7 weather network channel for Q3 later this year. And, WeatherNation is in the mix as they are 1 channel up on the DirecTV dial at the moment vs TWC -- that is huge in the tv business by the way. Sitting quietly on the sidelines and just observing this fascination situ .....

    Oh, Wed night and Thursday --- 925 to 850 mb winds have been very impressive on last 5-6 model runs. Yikes.

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  3. Interesting... didn't know that Accuweather was launching a 24/7 weather network. Seems the glory days of TWC are behind them. Comments on the Capital Weather Gang recap of the DirecTV/TWC stalemate reflected a strong anti-TWC sentiment. One such post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/01/13/directv-dispute-is-weather-channel-trying-to-have-it-both-ways/. Another post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/01/11/weather-channel-urging-viewers-to-pressure-directv-not-to-drop-network/

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    1. Yep, Accuweather took the opportunity to move up announcement today. I did see the Capital Weather Gang article and a few others as Twitter and FB traffic on situ has been busy since Sat night. It will be interesting to how all those involved react and move forward in their respective networks/programming/attitudes/etc. Competition is good. Saw that Weather Nation has announced their new graphics weather system -- Barons Omni system as the old Weather Central system they had was not renewed (Note: Weather Central is owned by WSI and both owned byThe Weather Company, parent owner of TWC.) So competition is heating up! Its a good thing in my opinion as monopolies are never good.

      Meanwhile, just patiently waiting for the next round of snow tonight/tomorrow AM and then the big wind of Thursday!

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  4. I don't know what everybody is worried about. This storm is evolving as expected. In fact, I would say it appears even more impressive, especially if you are a Wisconsin resident.

    This storm should explode as it heads east into WI overnight. I wouldn't be surprise a many portions of the Badger state, from EAU on east, were to receive 6"+ of snow by tomorrow evening. I absolutely love how the 500mb, 700mb & 850mb low all quickly deepen by sunrise tomorrow.

    Now, it is a bit more tricky for the MSP metro since this storm will get it's act going just as it is moving through eastern MN. However, I would expect a solid band of snow to rapidly develop around midnight over MSP and continue for several hours until about sunrise. With that being said, a solid 2"-4" should fall. There may be some locally higher amounts in a narrow band in or near the MSP metro.

    Quite frankly, it just don't see a bust with this system. If we don't see rapid development of snow by midnight, then a BUST will be likely.

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  5. The flip flopping of the short range models (aka the HRRR and the RAP) have thrown a lot of confusion into the mix. It would be nice to just see them show the storm evolving like the other models did but they were pretty sporadic earlier. Will monitor through tonight to see exactly how things do end up panning out.

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  6. Agree, Tom (NovakWeather) ..... general pattern and trends in models were well in the ball park. One thing I noticed in the initialization of RAP and even HRRR today --- they were clueless on the initial precip area with nothing forecast while radar clearly showed the first little wave that came through here this evening. Meanwhile, NAM and GFS did see this. DT/DP of the forecast guidance was pretty easy to see which ones were not reliable. I see area of snow on regional radar map of eastern NoDak and SoDak and wrn MN is expanding and taking shape. Patience is key .... now lets watch it roll across the state tonight/overnight.

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  7. I still have a lot to learn with this stuff. Really should have checked radar vs model initializations. That is on me. Looking forward to this thing deepening and seeing how much snow falls.

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  8. Beautiful snowfall this morning in Apple Valley. Too bad it's during rush hour, but beggars can't be choosers! Let it snow! Be safe out there on the roads, everybody!

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  9. Roughly 2 inches of snow before sunrise and now a last little snow burst occurring down here in Roch. Will note that out in the open areas the wind was really blowing from the north and drifting and blowing the snow over east / west roads.

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  10. We had about 3.5 - 4" when I left the house in Lake Como area Saint Paul for work at 7:00 AM this morning. It was coming down a pretty good clip.

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  11. Approaching 6 inches of snow here in Eau Claire, and it's still falling at a decent clip. Interstate 94 to the south and east of here is a complete mess. They've shut it down. This system really did evolve nicely. Props to Tom for his predictions. They seem like they will pan out.

    Side note...it would appear as though we could take another arctic plunge as we head into the last week of January. Here's hoping models start shifting that stuff more off to the east so we don't have Polar Vortex round 2.

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    1. Why would that be? Based on what?
      Who says not having Polar Vortex 2 is better than having it.?
      You should respect those who like cold weather and just share your personal opinions instead of general statements "here's hope, let's hope.."

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    2. I don't disrespect those who like it, it's just a preference of mine and I have every right to that. My job requires me to be outside and lots of our stuff doesn't work well in the bitter cold. If you like below zero highs then fine. I don't like working outside in it and I prefer my car battery to last through the winter. Sorry if I offended you by not wanting bitter cold. I will try to be more of a fan of the weather you like as opposed to what I like.

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  12. Olmsted County HSEM advises - (see what 2 or 3 inches of snow and heavy winds can do!)

    ROCHESTER, Minn. – (11:45 a.m.) The Minnesota Department of Transportation advises no unnecessary travel in southeastern Minnesota because of difficult driving conditions due to icy patches, blowing snow and reduced visibility.

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  13. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 14, 2014 at 12:55 PM

    I just have to single out Novak as BEING THE MAN, once again!! He stuck to his guns and stayed with is general graphics. When I say the blue 2-6+ bubble stretching all the way to Green Bay, I knew there would be potential for more than a simple clipper snow. He was right. Green Bay and Wisconsin is getting hammered and this is without tapping into Gulf Moisture. Nice job, Novak! You are my number one guy I turn to for weather. I also appreciate DD, Duane, Big Daddy, AB, Bill. You all rock. Dance on!!

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    1. I also send my kudos to Dr. Novak for his snowfall predictions for this storm. Job well done!!

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  14. I've been critical of Novak in the past, but he really seemed to nail this one. Good work!

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  15. More Videos! :-)

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