Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Late-Strengthening Storm Expected to Bring Solid Rush Hour Snow

Late changes to what was initially expected to be a light snowfall Wednesday night/Thursday morning have created the prospects for a pretty solid snowfall packed into a few hours that just happen to coincide with the morning rush hour.

Here were the forecasts we accumulated late Wednesday evening from various weather outlets (amounts in parentheses represent the middle value in the range, which we assume would correspond to the central urban core and probably the airport):

WCCO: 2-4 (3)
KSTP: 4-6 (5)
FOX: 3-5 (4)
KARE: 1-4 (2.5)
NWS: 2-5 (3.5)
MPR: 3-6 (4.5)
Star Trib: 2-5 (3.5)
Weather Channel: "About one inch" per weather.com and actual Weather Channel
Accuweather: 1-2"
WeatherBug: "Around 5 inches"

Astute observers will note that this forecast is typical of so many: among the local television outlets, KARE is on the conservative low end and KSTP is on the aggressive high end.




51 comments:

  1. Bill - this may just be a data gathering timing issue, and doesn't amount to much of a difference, but the NWS has a time stamp of 9:21 pm on their Graphicast of 4-6" for the metro. I also checked the Zone Area Forcast for Hennepin County and the text reads "total snow accumulation around 5 inches".

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    1. The 9:21 p.m. graphic said 2-5 except for 4-6 Glencoe to Rice Lake... so I went with the 2-5. They've told me the grid forecasts are not always right, though those did say more. So hard to find consistency with all the outlets in their predictions!

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  2. The timing was spot on as first flakes started flying in west metro(Eden Prairie) by 3;30am.....and now its a moderate to heavy snow falling, safe travels everyone!

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  3. Accuweather is a joke, their still forecasting "coating to an inch", while I already have two inches down. Bill do us all a favor and omit Accuweather from future threads!

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  4. Stuck in my driveway in 4" of blowing and drifting snow, wunderground says "1 to 3 inches" expected...(Somerset, WI) it's still coming down hard and fast

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  5. I'm curious to see who gets the biggest amount out of this. We have just under 4 inches here in south mpls, though it's blowing around so it's hard to measure.

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  6. Started with sleet down here in Rochester. Looks like we are going to end up a slightly more than 2 inches of snow.

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  7. We have a solid 4+ inches here in Burnsville!

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  8. 6.3 officially at MSP.
    Once again KARE embarasses himself.
    Bill, did @jerrydsebesta ever get back to you? I am sure after another fiasco he will hiding under the desk..

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    1. No, never heard back from Jerrid. I have no problem with missing a forecast. I'd just like to know if they have a different philosophy, embrace different weather models, etc.

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  9. Definitely under 4 in NW Burnsville. I am going with 3.7.

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  10. I'll go with 5+ in St. Paul. Hard to say for sure with drifting. The 6.3 at MSP airport, which is not too far from me, seems a bit high... but then again they're the experts.

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  11. I'm not sure if this question has ever been asked. I'm sure it has been but since we may have plenty of new people in here I will ask it again. Obviously we hope that there is as much accuracy in a snow forecast as possible, but it's pretty clear that different stations take different routes in regards to whether they tend to lean towards the low end of things or the high end of things. So, the question is...if a forecaster is going to be pretty far off on their forecast would you rather them have too high of a prediction or too low of a prediction? Since I'm a snow lover I guess it's pretty cool to end up with more snow than first predicted. How about everyone else? Underestimate or overestimate totals?

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  12. This storm verified with 4"+ snow in the MSP metro. Because of this, we have to hammer the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) in Maryland on this one. They were late to the party and they are suppose to be the bible when it comes to snow prediction. Gut feeling is that the MPX NWS was gun shy to move the snow band north because the WPC was further south than they should've been.

    The reason why I bring this up is because many weather outlets (TV, radio, NWS, etc.) will always go to the WPC to compare notes. Well, there notes were off (this doesn't happen that often) & it hurt a lot of predictions out there & made this look like a "surprise" storm.

    Meanwhile, we need to give the NAM a ton of credit on how it handled this storm. Few outlets had faith in its solution yet it nailed this storm. WAY TO GO NAM!

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    1. BTW, I truly appreciate the WPC & totally trust them. I'm just saying, on this one, they kind a blew it.

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    2. I'm not sure what happened here but it sounds like MPX wanted to start waving the flag as early as 4am Wednesday, not 4am Thursday. This a link from their AFD posted at 406am Wednesday.

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=12&glossary=1


      Notice in paragraph 3 they had a great discussion with DMX and ARX, and decided not to issue any headlines, but that is only important if you read the two paragraphs above.

      Seems to me like MPX saw this possibility early, but delayed headlines to coordinate with the other offices.

      Here is paragraph 3...as you can see they started to sniff this one out.

      "WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX
      ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER
      ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL.
      IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO
      THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES
      UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE
      SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE
      COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
      CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW
      MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE
      DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL
      AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE
      DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES."

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  13. Very interesting, Randy! Thanks for sharing.

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  14. Biggest snow of the season in metro -- gotta love it. MSP officially 6.4" per statement late today. There were a few measurements in the metro in the 5.5 to just under 7" realm and based on watching radar loop returns there was a nice max in dBZ from near MOA/MSP airport into srn Mpls and another batch in ne Dakota across St. Paul into wrn Wisc. A few other small maxima areas as rotate/pivot point and its bands moved across the metro into wrn Wisc. Rush hour was a bit challenging but not nightmarish or horrific despite 6" of snow in just 4-5 hours. DOTs were out early and most main highways in decent shape by Noon-2pm. Impressive.

    WPC does a decent job most of the time, but, can miss with local meteorologists many times picking up the slack and improving the forecast they put out. SPC does similar for convective weather w/local NWS offices refining/improving when needed.

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  15. Any chance of the storms over the next few days shifting north towards Minnesota?

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  16. The guys at WPC dont miss big too often. They are the best in the country when it comes to precipitation forecasts, much in the same way the guys at SPC/NHC are (although they are without a doubt the best in the world at what they do).

    On a side note, it has been fun playing in these forecast games at school. Its nice looking at the weather every day and trying to beat your classmates/NWS/models.

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  17. It creeps up on you but this January is the 8th snowiest January for the Twin Cities area at 22.7 inches.

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    1. Clippers every 2-3 days can add up more then 1-2 bigger southerly storms but then dry.

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  18. Since we have a quiet stretch of weather ahead, some may say boring, lets talk about records and research. What are the most subzero lows seen in one winter season at MSP and what is the record length of at least one inch snowcover at MSP......I believe we have had snowcover since Dec. 3rd.

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  19. Hmmm, are all of the snowstorms now going to just miss us (Twin Cities) and slide off to our south and east for the foreseeable future? Tomorrow's storm and the storm next week look like they are going to take a similar track to the storm a couple of days ago. As a snow lover, that's very frustrating.

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    1. Can't say anything for certain past a week. I'm not sure how long you meant by the foreseeable future.

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  20. @Dr. Novak.....I know your in tune with the weather daily, so when reading the CWA discussion this morning from the NWS I thought of you because all along they have been talking about dry weather into next week and storms detouring to our south.....so this morning now they have 30% of snow on Saturday and go on to say in their discussion that the dynamics of the system is 'impressive' but model qpf isn't there but say they are watching this one closely because systems like these sneak up on forecasters....I remember u talking about past storms for us that forecasters should be paying more attention to dynamics rather then qpf.....which Im sure your doing with this system.....so do u think it has any potential for us?

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    1. BigDaddy: I'm having a hard time buying into a significant snow scenario for Saturday's disturbance. Although some dynamics look interesting, there appears to be way too many red flags (poor upper level dynamics, no trough and/or obvious surface low).

      I won't be surprised if a narrow band of 1"-2" of snow falls over so. MN and/or no. IA, but a widespread significant snow is highly unlikely. There is no way that I would promote accumulating snows for the MSP metro at this stage of the game.

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  21. Kind of an odd situation. No fronts or centers of low/high pressure anywhere near us...so the weather just stalls. Yesterday was the same as today, which will be the same as tomorrow. Very bleak indeed. And now the warm-up mentioned for later next week is looking pretty wimpy.

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    1. February is like a winter version of August's dog days.... the season grows old and the atmosphere is waiting for a change.

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  22. Wow, we are really in a snoozer of a weather pattern here in MN/WI. All of the powerful upper level dynamics are sliding well south of us. This bitter cold dome of Arctic air continues to suppress the jet keeping it from migrating north. In fact, the system next TUE/WED really looks interesting over the deep south as the jet digs into the Gulf states. Potential for a severe weather outbreak? There appears to be potential.

    Good news is that the Arctic air moderates next week & a more Pacific influence moves into the Upper Midwest.

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  23. Funny how the NWS in the last 36 hours has gone from a completely dry forecast looking out 7 days to 30% chance of snow yesterday morning to 40% last night with .5" in their graphic to now snow likely with 70% chance with up to a maximum of 3" for Saturday, while all the while Novak says were in a snoozer, that doesn't seem like a snoozer to me when everytime I look at the NWS forecast the snow forecast is ramping up. Next thing you'll know we will be under an advisory/watch/warning for a so-called 'dry' period.

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  24. It appears that we will stay in a dry phase after all. Snow chances for tonight/tomorrow have substantially decreased for the metro over the past 24 hours, unfortunately.

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  25. Looks like the clipper train coming back late Tuesday and several chances after that.
    @Bill...my lead has dwindled to 44-41.

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    1. Not looking good for you. In fact, with the Noreaster coming, you may lose straight up without the spread. I forget, how many inches do you give your brother? (Man, that doesn't sound right.)

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    2. We are all knotted up at 44-44,he had a little 3incher on Sunday night.....anyhow his spread is 20 inches...so yeah it's not looking good for me with him being under a WSW for Thursday,just hoping enough warm air makes it in to keep his snow totals down but the NWS is forecasting 4-8 for his area...we'll see what happens. What I need is these clippers this week to drop some snow so I can stay close then hope for some panhandle hookers and Colorado lows throughout late February and March and hope the snow machine turns off on the east coast.

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  26. Looks like several chances of snow this week to add to our already snowy winter totals. Most of them look to be pretty fast movers and will probably be in the 1-3 inch variety. The most impressive looking one for the metro and into WI would be the Saturday one. That one we'll watch closely over the rest of the week to see how things trend with it. After that, things change up a bit as we head to a warmer week.

    Next week we will more than likely get some melting done as temps will either flirt with the freezing mark or be well above it. The middle of next week is looking to be the warmest at this point in time, but given it's still 8 days out we'll have to watch for changes in that too. If the models are correct, a good shot at widespread 40's across southern and central MN, with 50's not out of the question. In fact, if the perfect conditions do exist, and there is a lack of snow cover in some places, a 60 degree reading or two wouldn't shock me in the least. Like I said, 8-10 days away so certainly things can change, but all the models are agreeing on bringing in warmer temps to the area.

    As we head to the end of Feb and into March, a few things I think. First of all, I believe the coldest of winter in regards to daytime highs is probably behind us. It continues to be incredibly difficult to see subzero highs given the stronger sun angle and the more time that goes by, the stronger it will get. That being said, I believe we'll still see one or two more cold pushes before things take a more permanent shift as we get into March. I also think that we'll be seeing several more larger snowstorms over the next month and a half as we begin our transition into spring. I'm ready for spring and the melt, but I know some snow total competitions are going on, so we'll see if they can add on to their lead :)

    Side note...bad situation developing in the southeast US Tuesday night into Wednesday. Heavy snow accumulations as well as some major icing issues will likely happen in a lot of the same areas that saw a lot of ice and snow the last time around. Seems like those areas are taking some more precautions this time around, closing schools already, and setting up shelters. One could hope that this thing doesn't actually pan out, but models consistently showing a bad situation unfolding. Some models actually showing over an inch of ice accumulation in some areas. That's a ton of ice, and if that much actually falls, trees and power lines will come down. Power outages, crashes, etc etc. Hopefully people will just stay home and wait for conditions to improve. Should be very interesting to watch that unfold, and see how the next month unfolds too.

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    1. Duane thanks for the support and concern on my snow competition,now go find me some hookers.. :) panhandle hookers that is. Good to see the arctic air release its strangle hold on us,so that should at least allow more moisture our way,now we just the the storms to track just right...don't care to see the 40's and 50's just yet....but highs just around freezing with snow potential is good in my book.

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    2. Hey bigdaddy, that storm out east can't possibly be doing you any favors with your snow competition. Relatives of mine outside of Baltimore have picked up 15-18 inches since last night! Hopefully we will see some real snow around here soon. I sure hope the predictions for a heat wave next week are being overdone. Time will tell....

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  27. Models are a bit at odds now in regards to Saturday. Still looks like a little quick hitter with not much accumulation associated with it, but things appear to be shifting south with it. Warm up still looks to be on its way, and we'll be watching next week for a big trough moving into the west with maybe a big storm along with it. Until then, enjoy the quick hitting snows and warmer temperatures.

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  28. There's been some downward moderation in long-term temperature forecasts today. Next week isn't looking as nice as it once was. Norwegians are calling for only one day in the next week above 32.

    Sadly, today's high temp forecast was totally blown. They were predicting high teens and it looks like we peaked at 11. Not only will we not get as warm as forecast, but there'll be a nice inch on the roads just for fun! I hope you snow lovers get out there and make snowballs or whatever the eff it is you do that causes you to lust for snow every day.

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  29. With so much snow cover over areas south, southwest, and west of here I'm thinking it's not going to get as warm as some think.

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    1. I for one hope it doesn't get too crazy warm. Highs in the 20's to around 30 are fine. That keeps the snow around and prevents a big slopfest from lots of melting. After all, it is still early February.

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  30. Get ready for a lot of melting snow & slop next week. Looks like so. MN will be on the warm side of a powerful trough/jet that will spill into the western U.S. I will not be surprised if rain/drizzle & temps in the 40s/50s reach north into portions of southern MN by WED & THUR.

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    1. Here's crossing my fingers that you're wrong. We don't need April weather in February. Warmer weather is fine, but not 40's and 50's.

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  31. Once again, Novak was ahead of the game with showing the extent of the possible warmth for next week. Of course, we don't know who will be right, but the NWS was "scared" to trend that way until I read their discussion this morning. Now, they have upped the temperatures and getting more in line with Novak. Don't you think that there should be four prominent models: Euro, GFS, NAM, and NOVAK? #mancrush

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  32. Question for Novak...have you picked up on anything regarding data, models, trends over that last couple year where you're becoming more confident in stating how it will be with much more accuracy than most local mets? You've been on a quite a roll the last few months.

    I'm a big fan and an admitted weather junkie. I can read one map from another but I really enjoy the insight people share on this site.

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  33. Thoughts about the 10 day period and beyond.

    As Duane noted in his post from 02/11, we are going to get into a interesting period, sure there will be some warmth coming in. But there are several things to look at as we go forward.

    #1 Monday evening into Tuesday, if the system along the ND and Canada border strengthens 6 hours earlier than currently progged we could get a surprise.

    #2 The time frame for this one is around the 20th to 21st, this could be a major system but will most likely start as rain and end as a cement type of snow.

    #3 The second system may lay the ground work for what will follow, after the cement snow, cold air will fall into to MN just like the snowboarders fall into the half pike. There are hints that a second major system may show up around the 22-23rd and this looks to have no precip type issues, all snow.

    Time will tell, but this is setting up like the most active period of this winter season.

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    1. Opps I forgot something. Of course at this range confidence is very low that that systems 2 and 3 wiill effect the metro area, but as far of it being close the metro, I would give them about a 30% chance. I would define close to the metro as being within about 150 miles or so.

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  34. Great stuff, Randy. Just added a new thread.

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