Monday, March 31, 2014

Late Week Snow in the Cards?

While your proud host is in transit from Minnesota to California, we had a chance to talk with Tom Novak about the prospects for snow late this week. Even this far out, Tom has the Twin Cities in a high risk for a significant winter storm.

Use this space to share your thoughts on the possibility of a late-week storm.

110 comments:

  1. fingers crossed its a massive direct hit

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  2. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 1, 2014 at 4:53 PM

    Winter Storm Watches out! Here we go. You do the math on some of the totals from the NWS at the upper end is at 14 inches!! Bring that kind of stuff! Let the talk, chatter, babble, and analysis begin! Love reading this stuff!

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    1. Why do I get a mental image of Justin Bieber every time you post here?

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  3. @PWL, NWS has alot of uncertainty in their discussion, this has a high bust potential, what looks promising now always goes south or north. Even in their discussion they stated that the EURO trended warmer, to get a blockbuster everything needs to fall just right, I believe the marginal cold air will hamper snowfall.

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  4. I just don't see this storm having a problem with Cold air, especially late THUR into FRI.. Hell, Arctic air has dominated for the last 4 months so.....? The only red flag I see is moisture robbing T'Storms over the central U.S. If these storms go nuts, they could easily throw a wrench into the system and starve the northern end of this storm.

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  5. Interesting one to watch. Now that Bill has abandoned Minnesota he can enjoy watching our misery while sipping on a fancy drink with an umbrella in it.

    Dr. Novak the last few storms have missed us even though early predictions looked rough. If this one drifts, any prediction if it goes north or south?

    Where's Randy?

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    1. Thanks, Dave... if only it were so tropical. I'm at Lake Tahoe at the moment. It's 32 and there's some snow on the ground and in the pine trees. And thunderstorms closer to the coast. Course I'll take my chances over MN in the long run. Enjoy the late-week storm!

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  6. While I think that Tom's comment about T-Storms robbing some of our moisture may be a problem, I really don't think that is a issue, the vast majority of the models are now showing a closed H5 low with a strong negative tilt developing at just the right time. That should pull the the surface low up into the favored track. Thermal profiles are somewhat iffy when the storm starts, but if it's all snow, and this system moves as slowly as the current models are predicting it could be historic. The 04/02 Nam is just insane with its solution.

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  7. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 2, 2014 at 3:49 PM

    How can there not be more comments on here? This thing could be historic!!

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    1. We've all gotten our hopes dashed too many times. :-)

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  8. Has any models changed today? I know we (Metro) are in a Warning now, but totals from weather.gov and weather.com are lower than what they were this morning. Still a good chunk expected, but lower. So, I am wondering if models are shifting a bit?

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  9. Kare11 graphic shows lower amounts than NWS is forecasting. I'm shocked!

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  10. Come on are we really suppose to believe Dr. Novak with his 12-16+ for all of the metro, I have not seen one other outlet forecast snowfall totals that high. Again temps will be marginal, snowfall will be lost to melting.

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  11. The NWS, if you add the snow totals up for Thurs-Fri, is forecasting 9-17" for the metro. That's in line with Novak.

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  12. Bullseye is moving. Could we please just stay in the sweet spot and be in the bullseye for once? Good god!

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  13. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 2, 2014 at 10:31 PM

    You know what is interesting? Both KARE 11 and WCCO TV have the snow ending around 7 am on Friday. This is interesting as the NWS has 3-7 inches forecast for during the day on Friday and states that the snow will start tapering at 2 pm on Friday. Very interesting difference which, I assume would make a big difference in the total accumulations. Weird timing differences there.

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  14. Latest appears to have the heaviest snow moving further NW and the Twin Cities not getting the heaviest totals. Curious if Dr. Novak adjust his totals or Nottingham, they seem aggressive compared to some others but he has been more right than wrong. Spring storms are fun to try to follow.

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  15. This storm is doomed, why you ask, because for one Novak seems to be too aggressive at times with his forecasting and that it is case here and two the NWS is discounting the EURO solution(which went much weaker and barely has warning level snows for MSP), in their own discussion they were surprised to admit they were discounting the EURO and they are sticking with the GFS so as to not change the going forecast to drastically. Again this storm is doomed, don't look for historic, what looked good just yesterday for a direct bullseye hit on the metro is falling apart. I'm smelling the bust coming!

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  16. What? OMG! The storm's path has changed? Well, wait a minute....doesn't that happen 99% of the time? No surprise here! I had a feeling of dread when the Metro was in the bull's eye yesterday. I knew that was the kiss of death for the Metro receiving the heaviest snow. Sure enough, as of this morning the heaviest snow has been pushed far to the northeast into north central Wisconsin. Surprise, surprise....Not!!

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  17. BUST! Blowing....ur....snow...totals.

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  18. Another hated winter term is "warm nose", ranks right up there with dry tongue,dry slot and dry air. Four terms you don't want to hear if you want alot of snow, the warm nose in todays storm will keep totals down.

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  19. Got to hand it to Novak, he is sticking to his guns and not wavering from his forecast of 12-16+ inches in the metro, definitely the most aggressive I have seen.

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  20. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 3, 2014 at 8:42 AM

    It is almost humorous that all of the "anonymous" people out there come shooting, not crawling, out of the woodwork as soon as there is a change in the forecast. They love to bring up bust, shift, etc. as they pull out the critical barbs. It hasn't even happened yet! I would have much more respect if they put their cards on the table as things are unfolding up to a week in advance. And, they may say they do, but we don't know who they are. They are anonymous. Oh, the joy of being anonymous. One thing I admire about Novak, and others, is that they stick to their guns, as he just did with his latest graphic which looks identical to his graphic from yesterday. If he sees it, he goes with it. For all the right reasons. Admiration > Anonymous

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  21. I am with PWL even though I am anonymous (and it's because I don't want to create an account, not because I don't admire/love this website and all of you with 'names' who post on it). I routinely post Novak's predictions on my FB and know he is very, very accurate a far higher percentage than lots of other forecasters. I am with PWL and I hope we get the big totals. True it's kind of warm out there right now, and that might cut into some totals, but once it cools off, the shift to snow will come. As you always say, 'Bring it!' PWL.

    I hope this site continues even with Bill's move out west. It has been a breath of fresh air all these years. As a 'weatherholic' who knows very little about the scientific aspects, I enjoy learning and reading about weather on this site. It is a 'fresh alternative' to noaa, time and date, weather channel, and all the other 'stuff' out there. This site and Novak rule. :+)

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    1. You can reply with just a name/url and leave the url blank.

      I too really enjoy this site and hope it continues.

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  22. Impressive T'Storms over the central U.S. are doing a fine job of robbing moisture & energy from this storm. This is keeping everything quiet, for the time being, in the Upper Midwest.

    We desperately need this system to plug into moisture this afternoon. If precipitation does NOT blossom over IA/MN by 3pm, then many of us will be in trouble & looking at a bust.

    All computer models are showing this storm increasing in intensity this PM. I can't wait to see what develops over the Plains & Midwest during the next 12 hours. This storm has the potential to really blossom into a thing of beauty by midnight. Classic comma shape with snow on the backside & severe T'Storms on the front side.

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  23. I took a look at the wind map, and it appears that the low is already near Kansas City. That would seem to be much farther east than the Low Track Ensemble expected, which would have put the L a little NE of KC at 7pm tonight. Am I misreading that?

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    1. SPC mesoanalysis shows the low near Tulsa right now.

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  24. Paul Douglas calling for 4-8 in MSP.

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  25. Kare11 just downgraded. Are they onto to something...or on something?

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  26. Possible major winter storm and nobody is talking here. Is this site dead?

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  27. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 3, 2014 at 12:58 PM

    I saw on @boknowsweather, that the last couple of model runs still have MSP in the 12-14 inch range. It is so fascinating to me that we can have this much technology and experience and still struggle with these kinds of storms. It is why weather is so dang fascinating!

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  28. BUAHH AAH AHAHAHAHHAHAHA!!!

    The same Kare11 that during the last big snowstorm (the one that brought 9 inches) was still predicting 2-4 inches when 4 inches already fell it was snowing at 1-inch per hour rate!
    They are used to make a fool of themselves...

    Re the storm: I mean the 12Z GFS looks on track (even colder than previous runs) with around 0.8" of liquid precip. So to me, just looking at the models it seems not much has changed. Even allowing for less than 10:1 ratios for warmet temp I think we should get at least 6-7 inches.... but @Joel Fischer is right. No talks on what could be the biggest snowfall... maybe people are afraid to jinx it :)

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  29. I'm concerned about the talk of an open wave. Can a more knowledgeable person address this?

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  30. Predictions I found during lunch based mostly on morning forecasts.

    Updated: 04/03/2014 6:19 AM
    Created: 04/02/2014 6:04 AM KSTP.com
    Ken says we will see accumulations of 5-10 inches within most areas to the north and northwest of the Twin Cities, with a few 12-inch amounts likely. Just south and southeast of the Twin Cities, slightly lower amounts are expected -- perhaps up to 4 inches.

    WCCO This Morning - April 3, 2014 VIDEO
    6-10" in metro, more further NW

    KMSP-TV Posted: Apr 03, 2014 8:51 AM CDT Updated: Apr 03, 2014 8:55 AM CDT: 5 to 9 inches of slop in Twin Cities
    We'll see totals of 5" - 9" fall around metro and a narrow band in the 6" - 12"+ range for areas north and west.

    Kare11 Late morning weather forecast 4-3-2014
    Expect 2"-4" by early Friday with additional morning snowfall bringing a storm total in the metro to 3"-7" with some isolated higher amounts north of the Twin Cities.

    Tony Zaleski,NWS per article at TWINCITIES.com
    POSTED: 04/03/2014 12:01:00 AM CDT | UPDATED: 54 MIN. AGO
    Totals of about 7 to 10 inches are expected to be on the ground by about noon Friday, with the highest totals in the northern metro, said Tony Zaleski, meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Chanhassen.
    The snowfall Thursday afternoon could total about 3 inches in the northern metro and an inch or less in the southern metro. An additional 5 to 7 inches is expected Thursday evening through about noon Friday.

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  31. 12z European just came in. If anything it has flipped and is now more bullish than the GFS. This run it looks identical to the 12z GFS with a closed 500mb low near La Crosse and a band of 1" precip over the heart of the metro. My confidence just improved of heavy snowfall over the metro.

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  32. Breeding ground is absolutely volatile over eastern KS & MO right now. Current temps are in the 70s with dew pts. in the 60s. Meanwhile, temps/dews crash 30 to 40 degrees in no. KS (100 to 150 miles apart).

    This storm should explode/deepen within the next 6 hours as the surface low migrates NE across this zone. In turn, deep moisture will pull north into the Upper Midwest. This appears to be happening as I type. If everything goes as planned, expect areas of ThunderSNOW in southern MN & western WI over the next 12 to 18 hours.

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    1. This storm will be weather porn on satellite here soon.

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    2. OK...now I'm excited! I've been anxious that this would bust really badly. So you're saying we're still on track for something potentially historic?

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    3. It's like a made for home movie.

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  33. Well, I have to be honest. I'm as disgusted as Joel is excited.

    As far as I'm concerned, one centimeter of snow is too much for my taste at this point. Hoping for a late-in-the-game miracle bust of epic proportions!

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    1. The bright side is the roads will get cleared and dry much quicker in April then what we dealt with in January.

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  34. Not a good day for the SPC to be having DNS issues.

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  35. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 3, 2014 at 5:05 PM

    Snow falling pretty heavily now in Plymouth. It has been going back and forth and now it seems to be staying mostly snow.

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  36. Sleet has changed to all snow here in Golden Valley...big fat flakes. I have been sitting back and hoping for the best/historic storm we could get....I need 16" to tie my brother, come on mother nature surprise me!

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    1. Good luck Bigdaddy! I'll be rooting for you from afar.

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  37. New video with Dr. Tom and Patrick Hammer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frT5ayH4FiE

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  38. Something occurred to me on the drive home; that our previous big storm was on a Thursday into Friday, and that was six weeks ago...approx. 42 days. I have a vague recollection of someone a few months ago talking about a storm cycle that I want to say was 45 days long. Anyone remember this?

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  39. Found it. Lezak Recurring Cycle.

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  40. Funny, Novak and Hammer says metro will be the bullseye yet Novak has moved the heaviest snow north and east of the metro off into Wisconsin, a small change but a change none the less. Also nothing really going on here in Fridley, snow went back to light sleet.

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  41. Ive been quiet the last couple of days, lots of hours at work, got home about 645 looked at the 18z model suite including the GFS, NAM, REG GEM and the 12z run of the Euro did indeed come out of its funk. Also looked at the 21z run of the RUC back up. Going with 8-12" over the metro with a few reports coming in near the 15" mark. It took until the day of the storm but model consensus is now quite good.

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  42. Snow totals from NWS dropping like a rock, point forecast for Golden Valley down to 4-7" and their winter storm warning headline is down to 5-9....models shifted again?

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  43. I'm not backing off on my totals. Just looked at the water vapor imagery over the CONUS off the COD (College of Dupage site), and overlaid the surface pressure meso map. It is clear that the trough is now going negatively tilted and it looks like the center of the low pressure will pass very near ARX. As a matter of fact the mesoanalysis shows the surface low going negatively tilted. We will get clocked here in the metro.

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  44. I seriously don't understand KARE. Weather gal just put up a graphic showing 4"-5" of snow total over much of the MSP metro. Looking at the latest reports, many areas in MSP are already reporting 4"+. Now, if we don't get any more snow from here on in, then KARE weather gal will be correct. Otherwise, WTF?

    I'm looking at radar and I can't imagine not receiving at least another 2"-4" by sunrise. Am I missing something?

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  45. KARE weather gal also showed Red Wing with 11" when all is said and done. I don't believe Red Wing has received even 1" yet.

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  46. I have to admit, I don't like all the dry air in Iowa. This could easily choke this system as it tries to deepen overnight. That scares me.

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    1. NovakWeather = Tom Novak?

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    2. some new echo returns blossoming in central iowa though, so hopefully a sign there is enough lift to erode that dry layer...
      we will see.
      as for myself all we nned is at least 4.9 inches to tie last winter's total. So disappointing if after all the cold we had to endure, it would end up less snowy than last year.

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  47. measured 5" here in Champlin about 15 min ago

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    1. and that includes compaction.

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  48. Not liking the look of radar. Ugh.

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  49. 6.5" in Champlin and +SN, that means heavy snow still falling.

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  50. Wow! Numerous reports now of 6"+ in the MSP metro with heavy snow still falling in many areas. Radar shows the pivot point (deformation axis) now starting to set-up right over the metro.

    I simply can't fathom that this storm is done. I would expect at least another 2"-4" of snow by sunrise. That would place much of the metro in the 8"-12" range by then.

    Impressive.

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  51. With all due respect to Kare 11, they bought into the Euro hook line and sinker, and normally that would be a solid forecast. The problem that I have seen this year with the Euro, is that it does really good with storms from 7-2 days out, but as it gets closer to the event it seems to miss. While that model has been King in the past, it is no longer King in the short range, say 24 hours out. That's why the Weather Predication Center in MA threw it under the bus, among other things of course. It eventually came back to it's stronger solution of course.

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    1. Yes but one thing is to go with the wrong model (can happen to anyone), another thing is to predict a total of 4 inches when 4 inches already fell and it is still snowing at rates close to 1inch/hour.
      They did exactly the same for the last big snowstorm and again last night.
      Obviously they have a policy of underpredicting snow even though when Bill asked Jerrid Sebesta flat out, I believe he never got an answer.
      To me, one thing is to bust a forecast ( although those who make them bust them, so that is a sign of confidence), one thing is to embarass yourself by denying evidence. I feel Kare 11 is not doing a good job about it.

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  52. Just came in from clearing the driveway with the snow blower. Message of the day should be to stop older people from trying to shovel this stuff. Very heavy and wet. Really can't tell the snow total here. It was compacted but still impressive with ice on the bottom

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  53. Heart attack snow for sure, Dave from Shakopee. I have always wanted to stick a ruler in a clean batch of snow. I'm not an official NWS spotter, but we have a cool 8-9 inches on the ground in St. Louis Park, and it's still snowing. Woooo hoooo. I measured in lots of spots and kept coming up with the same total. Amazing that Novak could see this since the beginning of the week. Kudos to him.

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  54. Awesome job Novak and Randy!! Thank you for keeping us of what to expect and why heavy snow. My snow blower would not start so I waited in line for the neighbors. Finally done for now. Anybody want a great, hardworking but stubborn snow blower?

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  55. The North Central CONUS water vapor loop at the College of Dupage website is mesmerizing. It looks like just a small pocket of dry(er) air got pulled in overnight, but the moisture quickly filled in again. Impressive storm. Kudos to Novak for getting it right again.

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  56. Most of the the cities saw 6-9" with some 9-12" on the far northwest side. Novak called for 12-15" then backed to 8-12" at the last second contradicting what he said in the video that MSP would stay in the bullseye. So how is that getting it right? Most media outlets were calling for 4-8" or 5-9" which would be much more accurate for the majority of the metro.

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    1. Anonymous,
      I don't think you quite understand how difficult it is to 4cast the weather, especially when it comes to micro-scale areas. It is very easy to sit there & always be conservative and/or just go with what model output statistics print out. My forecasting is different, I believe in "forecasting outside the box" & living on the edge a bit because I know that weather is all about fluctuations & extremes.

      I think what everybody is trying to say is that only a few outlets were predicting a Block-Buster storm (April standards). I truly believed that everything was coming together for one. Granted, not all of the metro received 9"+ of snow, but a good chunk of the metro did. That is Block-Buster in my book especially when considering it is April, compaction, sun angle, etc.

      Chill out a bit & just take things with a grain of salt.

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  57. I would really enjoy a follow-up video from Tom and Patrick recapping the storm. It seemed like a classic set-up, with a glitch or two thrown in, so I'd love for them to analyze it for us. I'm a weather lover and storm watcher, and I don't have all of the understanding of the mechanics, but the one thing I noticed is that we never really seemed to hook into the conveyor belt of gulf moisture.

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  58. I'm curious - what happened in the east metro? Here in Lake Elmo, the rain switched to huge snowflakes right on schedule last night around 6:00. We had a few inches down when I went to bed, then woke up to only about 5 inches total and didn't add much more this morning. I'm hearing all of these other, bigger numbers - did we just get weaker bands of snow over here?

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    1. That is exactly what happened. A narrow dry slot of air knifed into the southeast MSP metro & literally choked the snow there. Meanwhile, most of the rest of the metro stayed near or under a significant snow band overnight.

      It is nearly impossible to predict exactly where something like this will happen. That is why forecasters often have a wide snow total web like 4"-8" or 2"-12". ;-)

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  59. 3" in Farmington

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  60. Busted in St Cloud (2-3 inches) and signs of 60 by middle of next week. I'm a very happy person this morning.

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  61. 5.9 officially at the airport.

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  62. 6.4 is the updated total at the airport as of 1pm.
    It is on the lower side of the metro reports. Honestly sounds low considering Bloomington less than 3 miles away reported 9 inches.
    Here in St Louis Park I measured almost 8 inches.
    And this is the problem I have with the 'official' measure. In events like this it can be an outlier (on the high or low side depending on whether you sit under heavy snow bands).
    How difficult is it to take measurements at 6 different points in the metro NW, NE, SW, SE and Downtown MSP and St Paul and average it?
    It would give a much better picture of an event, and would really tell which forecaster was right and who was wrong.
    I just do not understand.
    They use ensemble forecasts with more than 20 members or so to develop forecasts and then we cannot take an average of different reporting stations?

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    1. Stand corrected... apparently the total is 6.5. Some conflicting reports in different parts of NWS website.

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    2. Well...think of it as the record of weather events at one particular point on earth. I think that's a better option. The averages over time for multiple locations in the metro are very similar, so I don't think it's a problem.

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  63. 9" at Golden Valley.....Snow Bowl update.....MN-78...NJ-65......competition ends April 10.....looks like I will fall short...but it was fun and close....but a loss none the less.

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  64. If I had to pick the best tv station who got the numbers right or close to was WCCO who said 6-12 with more up north, KMSP said almost the same thing at the start, but ,then they dropped it lower and worse was Kare 11 but, on twitter Laura Betker did show all 4 snow totals from the models, on tv they use Microcast, which made them look bad.

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  65. So Dr. Novak or Randy is the snow done?.....NWS says theres potential for another significant storm by late next weekend that both the Euro and GFS are showing....Im guessing we will be too warm by then to be talking snow.

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    1. Don't know what to expect yet, there was a strong storm over Japan as explained by the weather centre. I haven't looked closely at the ensemble forecast yet.

      http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/04/april-10-14-potentially-major-storm.html

      Model variance is off the charts during that time frame.

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    2. After this weeks warmth temps drop into the 40's for highs and lows in the 20's from Sunday thru early the following week, but as of now no moisture. With those temps snow is still possible around here if we get some moisture, so a big IF but still possible because we cool down. Gut feeling is Mother Nature has one curveball left!

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  66. I find it interesting how the NAM is doing a great job of factoring fresh snow cover with its temperature modeling. However, it is NOT factoring in dark vegetation (forested areas, etc.) very well. Hence, it has high temps today in ne MN & nw WI in the 30s. Meanwhile, these areas will rise well into the 50s. We need to fix this.

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  67. Just saw the lastest EURO and they have a heavy snow band going from central Iowa to central Wisconsin, just clipping SE Minnesota on Sunday night.......question is one is this a real potential and two any chance the metro gets affected by this.Thoughts Novak/Randyinchamplin?

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  68. I doubt it. Jet structure just doesn't look favorable for heavy snow in so. MN., esp. the MSP metro. I wouldn't be surprised if someone in the Midwest were to receive a narrow band of accum. snow, but I would be extremely cautious to predict this for MSP.

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    1. Dr. Novak you still going with the above assessment? Latest EURO run now has snow into the metro for late Sunday, also the GEM is coming around to the EURO solution, what do you think will happen Sunday and where will the snow fall?

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  69. The Euro certainly looks more promising. It develops a beautiful looking coupled jet structure with strong divergence aloft over the Midwest incl. so. MN. I believe that a narrow band of accumulating snow is imminent over portions of the Midwest. I'm still hesitant to move it far enough north to affect so. MN. These narrow bands of snow are a b!tch this time of year.

    Foolish to promise anything at this stage of the game, especially when considering the lack of Arctic air available.

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    1. The Euro giveth it and the Euro taketh away. Euro now shows no snow for Sunday late. It had been a consistent signal, maybe it will come back if not the winter was long and the snow above average, so no complaints!

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  70. Very interesting and rare situation yesterday:
    MPS high and low exactly matching the averages for the day.

    First time it happens this year. Happened only 2 times in 2013 (Mar 14th and July 25th) and only once in 2012 (Mar 8).

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    1. Very rare indeed. It's normal not to be normal.

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  71. Don't look at models today! Instead go outside and enjoy the glorious weather.

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  72. EURO "snow event" back on, but much farther east, affecting areas like Milwaukee and Chicago up to Green Bay, looks like the passage of the cold front will set up a boundary layer that another low pressure system will ride along, but naturally after it has cleared the MSP area and were left with cooler but drier weather.

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  73. anybody seen the 12zGFS for next Wed, Thursday?
    NWS discussion saying it now matches the colder ECMWF which I take it as a good sign...
    Sounds cold enough for all snow to my eyes...and it has been a bit consistent the last few runs...
    Keep hoping snow lovers. Maybe we are in for one last shot!

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  74. Dr. Novak are the snow chances next week for real?.....NWS says rain/snow chances in the grids from Tuesday night to Friday....is it just cosmetic snow with melting or will there be accumulation?

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  75. GFS blowing up a storm with major level snows(6+) by midweek with the GEM not far behind. But EURO not on board due to phasing east of us, so what say the experts here on what will happen.

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  76. Incredible that we still deal with dry/cold air keeping precip away from metro......the rain from today came straight up 35 and then vryed off to the east...rain made it as far as Lakeville then Cottage Grove and Hudson....those places will be going over to snow shortly and I wouldnt be surprised to hear of 1-3" snow amounts just off to our south and east tonight.

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  77. I'm not fully on board yet with this midweek/end of week system but it really does continue to show some signs of accumulating snow. I was really hoping to be done with talking about this by now, but hey, it's where we live and we just have to deal with it. Another week of cool temps, but until all the models get on board, it is yet to be determined how unsettled it will be.

    I read something today from Jonathan Yuhas over at KSTP about how a potentially active late April/early May may be in the works in regards to severe weather. His article did make a lot of sense in the potential set up we could be in with a cold high nearby and big temp contrasts across the upper midwest. He was looking mostly at the middle of next week for perhaps the first potential widespread severe weather event across Minnesota. Given model accuracy at that range is less than stellar, everything seen now has to be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, it does look like a more significant push of warm air will try to get up into Minnesota and Wisconsin, followed by a decent cold front. He may very well be on to something here but again this is 10 days out. While severe weather may or may not end up getting going, at the very least a warmer more spring like look is showing up. I'm really getting itchy for a longer stretch of warmer weather, so I'm cheering on the warm up. Others may still want snow and cold, and that's fine too, but I would really prefer the warm spring temps. Stay tuned because if this big temp contrast does set up close to home, we could be in for an active late April/early May.

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    1. Duane: I sent this email to Tom earlier, whether he responds to it or not, is not important, but it does show how uncertain this system is for this week.

      "The system later this week has been fascinating to watch between the GEM/GFS and Euro. Looking at the 500mb vort maps, the Euro has been insistent on not phasing any of the storms, leaving snows over the arrowhead. Meanwhile the GEM and GFS have been insistent on phasing the system coming out of British Columbia with the system over southern Canada. Its very hard at this time of the year to get two systems to phase at just the right location with just the right timing. Turning to the GFS it has actually been fairly consistent with a triple phase with the southern energy getting sucked up north as well. I think that only has about a 10% chance of verifying, but if it does......nuff said."

      As far as severe goes towards the end of the month, I don't know, but it seems to me we may get caught between colder air in Canada and warmer air to our south. A link to JY's post would be helpful.

      Nice to hear from you again.

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    2. Hey Randy. The article he posted was right on his Facebook page, so if people have Facebook and want to look it up, just search "Jonathan Yuhas Meteorologist" and he has a couple posts on there about it. He included a map that I will post explaining the set up.

      http://i103.photobucket.com/albums/m140/duanewolter1/stormmap_zpsa84e27bb.jpg

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  78. I hate this sharp gradient shit! 30 miles N/S either way is going to make a world of a difference.

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    1. I guess as long as that shit stays north of me, I don't care.

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    2. I just hope to get officially at least 0.5 at MSP so we reach 70 inches for the winter to make it an excellent total.
      I am already satisfied as my 2 criteria for considering the winter season not a bust have been met: above average snowfall by at least 10 inches and more snow than Boston, but topping it up to at least 70 would the icing(!) on the cake.
      Then I am ready for a couple of months of warm weather before starting to count-down again for next winter.

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  79. Is it just my imagination or has ice out here in the metro been pretty much on schedule, despite the long, cold winter? While driving around the southern metro the past few days, I have not seen any ice on the lakes or ponds.

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  80. Mr. Novak says 6+ inches of snow near MSP metro tomorrow, he goes on to say expect surprises, but is struggling with this tight gradient. Thats usually when surprises occur, I wouldnt write this storm off as a non-event for the metro yet, even though the NWS says the greatest impact is well north of metro.

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  81. Is this thing dropping further south? NWS now has advisories for north and east metro with 3-5" totals. They also say there is uncertainty with changeover or mix to rain in the advisory area.....I believe the surprises are starting, we'll see!

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  82. New thread set up to capture tomorrow's possible snow event.

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