Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Snow. Again. And Why Not, It's Only Mid-March.

As of Monday evening, the stage seemed set for another bout of winter weather according to virtually all local weather outlets. There were moderate variations in the predictions but all weather gurus agreed amounts would be higher in the northwest Twin Cities and lower in the southeast Twin Cities. Here's a recap as of late Monday evening.

WCCO: 1-3" SE, 3-6" NW -- (3" for the core metro)
KSTP: 3-6"(4.5" for core metro)
KMSP: 3-5" (4")
KARE: 2-5" (3.5")
NWS: 3-5" (4")
Star Tribune: 3-5" (4")
MPR: 3-7" (5")
Accuweather: 2-4" (3")
Weather Channel: 2-4" (3")
Novak Weather: 4-8" (6")

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84 comments:

  1. I thought the storm was shifting father south and east? I guess it's no longer doing that because the winter storm warnings have now been pushed farther north. The winter storm warning in Monticello has been cancelled. We are now under a winter weather advisory.

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  2. Reading the NWS discussion this morning I get the feeling that they are very uncertain on what will transpire today and tonight. What is also abit misleading is they obviously feel the storm is going abit further south because the advisory area has expanded south, but at the same time they trimmed off some counties that were in a warning just north of the metro and placed them in an advisory and all the while they increased snowfall, for example, my point forecast for Golden Valley last night was for 2-4....now its 3-7. I don't know what will happen or whos forecast to trust and just going to sit back and see what happens.

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    2. I noticed on the NWS's point forecast as of 11:15 a.m., they are now going with 1-3" of snow in the Faribault area, but yet their Weather Story is still going with 4-6". Uncertain is "certainly" the word.

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  3. Hear you Big Daddy,.I saw the same thing. Makes no sense at all.

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  4. The metro loop is missing a snowstorm by mere miles today, take a look at current radar, the areas that the NWS dropped from a warning to advisory are currently sitting in heavy snow, I bet their regreting that decision right about now.

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  5. I think this storm is a great example of what Novak and Randy have been saying all along...spring storms are DIFFICULT to predict. The storm is literally happening at this moment, and it's still hard to know what it's going to do. There are models, and there is reality. Right now we have to just sit back and see what this thing wants to do (and stop pointing fingers at who predicted what incorrectly).

    Just appreciate it!

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  6. It's a beautiful sunny morning in Burnsville!

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  7. This is a very interesting storm. This current snow is along an old frontal boundary as expected...maybe just a bit further north than forecasted. Most of metros snow will develop this afternoon and evening.

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  8. Everybody has to realize that snow amounts are going to vary greatly across the southeast 1/2 of MN including the MSP metro.

    For example, the northwest sections of the MSP metro have already picked-up a quick 1"-3" of snow this AM & that is due to the mid-level band of frontogenesis that set-up a good 50 miles further south than expected. Hell, areas of Wright & Anoka counties could easily receive 6" of snow by this evening.

    As snow fills in later this afternoon & tonight over so. MN, the heavier snow focus will shift southeast into the rest of the MSP metro. In fact, with the surface low tracking further south than expected, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 2nd heavier focus of snow to occur in Scott & Dakota counties.

    So, we may have a situation where Monticello picks up a good 6"-8"+ with the mid-level band of snow, the core MSP metro (MSP Int'l) gets 3"-5" of snow, then areas like Rosemount & Woodbury get 5"+ of snow.

    This is what is fun about Spring storms; They are so erratic. That is why you have to go with a general blanket coverage like 4"-8" across a large piece of real estate like the MSP metro.

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  9. Just saw a report of 7" of snow near Mora, MN. That is one impressive yet narrow band of heavy snow that is sitting from near St. Cloud to Hayward, WI. Snow totals are getting out of hand in the axis of this heavy snow band.

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  10. Seems like starting to hear the metro core will be screwed in terms of the heavier snow totals, when this mornings batch favors NW of metro and now Novak describes the second batch later will favor the south the metro. I can totally see MSP Int. getting only 1-2 with this thing.

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  11. not that I care, cause I a ready for spring. But I also find the forecast interesting between Dr. Tom and all other outlets.

    I am in Woodbury, and I went from 2-4, late yesterday, to 3-5 very early this morning, to 1-3 as of right now.

    Just going to sit back and see how it plays out.

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  12. At best this will be nothing but a nuisance couple of inches for most of the Twin Cities metro. The real action will remain much farther north and west of the metro.

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  13. I've been following the forecast mainly on wunderground. It's changed quite a bit just today. Right now they're calling for no accumulation in MSP today, then 3-4 total by tomorrow. That's less than what they were saying early this morning.

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  14. 1-2" now being forecast for Faribault tonight, and 1/2" tomorrow. Totals are definitely on the decline, if you are to believe the point forecasts.

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  15. NWS has Shakopee down to 2 - 4". Temps are still warm, so it will be a while yet. Looks like a narrow band is getting most of the snow. Interesting storm.

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  16. Brand new video for you educational enjoyment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeBsX6u1ETs

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  17. Busted forecast for me, before I went into work at 1pm the handwriting was on the wall, the NW part of Henn. county and most of Anoka was not going to get 6-8". Where did I make my error? It was a failure to trust the UKMET and the Euro with their lower precip forecast. Not only that. By Monday afternoon there where some strong hints that the 500mb trough was not going to close off, instead it would stay a open wave and go to a slightly negative tilt (a tilt that would show it orientated nw to se,) while some models showed a neutral orientation (a north to south look.) Well the neutral solution won out, because the trough never went to a negative tilt causing lift and forcing the surface low to near a Madison to Green Bay track, it went towards the Milwaukee/Chicago area which is not a good track for most of the metro. This was always a thread the needle forecast, with a high amount of bust potential either low or high.


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  18. Now before this site goes down for Bills move to CA., a few words about the forecast into the end of March. I'm sure some of our local mets that post blog's will show the GFS solution for a major warm up around the 27th. Don't believe it. While it's ensemble members show the -EPO relaxing for a couple of days, it quickly goes back to negative. The operational Euro doesn't show any warm up.

    As a matter of fact the MJO forecast for the Euro ensembles shows it going strongly into Phase 2 and 3 towards the end of the month, which is normally a strong signal of temps below normal, maybe much below normal.

    More on this if this site is still up on Thursday, for those of you that know me and follow Joe Bastradi, I think he is weather terrorist and I don't follow him at all. I have heard he is calling for cold summer, although because I don't follow him I can't confirm that. I did see on the Weather Centre site site they are calling for the possibility a super EL Nino forming. They compared it to 1997 when the ENSO region was slightly cooler than normal during the winter months and we than quickly transitioned into a very strong EL Nino. I will try on Thursday to look at the winter of 96/97 and the summer of that same year to see what it showed.

    Peace out everyone and Good luck Bill!!!!

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    1. I heard Sven on Kare 11 this morning talking about temps well into the 50's in the metro by next Thursday or Friday. Last week Jerid initially forecasted a high of 50 degrees for either this past Saturday or Sunday. Julie Nelson gave him grief on air for that huge blunder. Kare always seems to forecast warm temps and low snow totals for some reason.

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    2. Thanks, Randy. I'll try to keep things going for now. Not exactly sure of future plans with regard to the site. I'll certainly get us through snow season!

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    3. ...which may never end so we'll have Bill for quite some time.....

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    4. :-) I'll be doing the interview from a patio with a lemon tree in the background. I'm down for that.

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  19. Looks like 2.5 in S. Mpls. Definitely less than I was expecting.

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  20. Randy is correct, the storm tracked a bit too far south & the forcing just never materialized since this waved stayed open. There wasn't that classic over-running of 850mb air from the south. The mid-level forcing stayed just north of MSP yesterday where it was NOT a bust.

    I have to say that I'm still surprised we didn't see more snow in the metro. The upper level structure appeared perfect. Go 50 miles north of the metro & it is a different story where 6"-10" is on the ground.

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  21. Yes, very disappointed in the lack of snow for the metro. I cringe to say that KARE gets the award for this storm. They were calling for generally a couple of inches in the metro.

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  22. About 1.5 - 2 in Roseville. Traffic wasn't too bad this morning. My street was plowed, though. Maybe out of sympathy?

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  23. Highland Park had essentially what the airport reported: 2.9".

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  24. This storm didnt really help my Snow Bowl efforts....was hoping for more then the 2.5" I got.....Novak any possible significant snows still out there, by significant I mean 6+.....I see snow chances for Friday and Monday but NWS pretty ho-hum about them in their discussions....at least temperatures look to favor snow thru the end of the month.

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  25. As is typical with March/April snows, totals are all over the place. I've heard reports of 1"-2" in the northern metro (Forest Lake, Blaine) to 3"-4" in southern metro (Lakeville, Farmington). Of course, we have to keep in mind that 30 miles north of the metro is where 6"+ of snow fell yesterday. Now THAT is a close shave.

    I refuse to give KARE11 the award on this one. Although they hit the 1"-4" on the nose, their graphic was way off. They had the heavier snows on the northern metro with only 1" in the south metro. That is very misleading. In fact, Bill & I talked about this in our video yesterday even before the snow started. I would say that anybody who predicted 2"-4" should be declared victorious. I believe that is what the NWS finally predicted in their TUE PM package.

    However, I want to give a huge round of applause to MNForecaster. He was posting videos of a TUE plowable snow event 5 days in advanced. NICE JOB BILL! ;-)

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  26. A bit more on KARE... they said "1-2" for most spots in the metro, which was still a little low. If I had to generalize, I'd say, "most spots" got 2-3.

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  27. A lot of the forecasts I saw related to this system left me scratching my head. This system was pulling in dry air straight out of the southwest at 850mb, and was the big reason why southern MN dried out yesterday. This was well forecasted on every model along with the frontogenetic forcing - heavy snow remaining to the north and west of the Twin Cities. As erratic as the models were with this system last week, there was good agreement and consistency between the models from Saturday evening onward.

    The point of the whether the 500 mb low remained open or closed doesn't matter as much as that it was a closed low from 700mb downward. This is what allowed the deformation zone to develop over the Twin Cities yesterday evening when it finally was able to tap into a little gulf moisture.

    This system was handled better by the models than pretty much any storm yet this season. Sure there were a few runs that tried to move heavier snow closer to the Twin Cities, but the far majority kept the heaviest snows to the northwest. There was never one model run that had the Twin Cities in the bullseye for the heaviest snow.

    randyinchamplin I do agree with you on next weeks temperatures. 50s are highly unlikely and maybe best case scenario is MSP making it back into the low 40s by the end of next week.

    I also like the 96/97 comparison, and I have used those years in my previous two winter forecasts. 1997 was a very cool summer for the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S with a similar pattern to what we have been stuck in for the last year and a half now. Even with a developing El Nino this summer, similar to 97, we should be in for another cool summer. If El Nino does develop, it would mean a much warmer winter next winter.

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  28. Randy,
    I remember you mentioning the dry air intrusion a few days back. I believe you are right, that desert SW air got entrained into the system yesterday. You could see that when viewing the radar echoes (or lack thereof) over IA. When I saw the lack of precipitation over IA yesterday PM, I got nervous & I knew my prediction was in jeopardy.

    Nice job on seeing this issue ahead of time.

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  29. @ Randy Hill, thanks for agreeing with me on the temps in the 7-10ay, it seems reasonable. Regarding this last storm, I agree with the 700mb and lower closing off as the band set up over the metro. Regarding the H5 low closing off. I don't think that was as critical as the H5 open wave never going to at least a slightly negative tilt, providing a bit more lift.

    @Tom: I always look at the lower level jet streak, if there is one, or at least the lower level winds at H85, dry air always is a concern for me, yet the upper level dynamics looked real good for this system. Thanks for the shout out by the way.

    Something tells me that we could be set for another strong system sometime from say, roughly March 28th through April 10th. Warmer temps have to start lifting in from the SE US meeting this cold air from the -EPO ridge that doesn't want to go away. A repeat of last years April???

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    1. BTW, most peeps will probably disagree with me, but post storm analysis can often be more interesting than the forecast itself. What went right and wrong. I wished more of our local mets would touch at that from time to time.

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    2. Randy's exactly what colder then average temperatures are you seeing? and Randyinchamplin not exactly sure how you can have a repeat of last Aprils snows when models have us flirting with 60's in the same time frame of your March 28th-April 10th. Just take a look at Huttner's blog with Euro and GFS highs as high as the mid 60's. Safe to say spring is on its way next weekend.

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  30. I noticed a storm system on the GFS approaching from the SW around the April 5 timeframe. Has a fairly robust area of convection and some warm air.

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  31. Good to see spring will be sprung towards the latter half of next week. Temps in the 50's and 60's in our CWA with thunderstorms and rainstorms nearby

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  32. Woo-hoo! Spring baby, most national outlets are showing highs next weekend in the 50's and 60's, time to get the golf clubs out and also fire up the grill. Bill at least mother nature is giving you nice send-off weather.

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  33. This winter = bust

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  34. Not for nothing but why are all the systems lately missing or just grazing the metro...I lost count of how many just went south down near I-90....this past week two of them hit north and central MN and now Novak has graphic for snow on Monday in So. Minnesota.....so theres North and Central and South Minnesota and then theres the metro thats none of the them I guess. I know it sounds like I'm whining and we already have had above average snowfall....but I'm a snowlover and if its going to be this close it might as well snow...that and I have this little competition I'm still holding out hope for(which if the east coast gets nailed on Tuesday which looks like it will....I'm toast).

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  35. Hey bigdaddy, Novak's 'strong' clipper which included the metro with moderate impacts is sailing south of the metro sorry to tell you, so I hope you didnt get your hopes up because its not happening.

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  36. Watch out for Thursday, a much larger storm looks very possible. MSP could be riding rain/snow line (like usual) but I think some places in MN will see heavy snow.

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  37. Some beautiful heavy snow currently in Golden Valley....Bill mother natures swan song for you?

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  38. A second beautiful moderate/heavy snow burst of the day in Burnsville. No real accumulation, but it's pretty to watch.

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  39. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 24, 2014 at 1:04 PM

    It has been pretty snow here in Plymouth, as well. I want to know if the storm that is forecast for later this week will have a chance to be large? Bring it!!

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  40. Latest video with Dr. Novak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPzKkedL228#t=10

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  41. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 25, 2014 at 5:43 PM

    Early next week......Bring it!! Seriously. Dump on us and then get nice and warm. I love the extremes of Minnesota weather.

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  42. @Bill.....looks like Dr. Novak might have prayed to the weather gods and dragged tommorrow's system further south.....advisories are as close to the metro as Anoka county.....with now 1-3" of snow whereas last night it was pretty much no snow....I wouldnt be surprised if we get even more since there was some uncertainty in the NWS discussion.
    Dr. Novak what is your new take on this storm now?

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  43. New video with Dr. Novak as storm seems to be trending south: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhfvhUpcDj8

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  44. Bit curious as to why NWS La Crosse issued the winter weather advisory. Communication issues?

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    1. I saw that too and was wondering why myself....I thought it was strange.

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  45. Nice video guys. Thursday looks very interesting to say the least. As to which model showed the snow potential first.that would be the 25/12z run of the UKMET.

    Most all of the models show the H85 temps dropping below 0° C around 4pm in the afternoon and some snow should accumulate around the metro, that seems to be a given. But one thing that I would like to point out is the potential for Dynamic Cooling (at least I think that's the right term), as precip falls through the column it tends to cool the column.

    It's been my experience that models are woefully bad at handing that, and most models show heavy precip falling Thursday afternoon. It would not surprise me to see the precip changing to snow in the north metro by say 2pm, and maybe the core of the metro by 3pm. This a very challenging forecast. Confidence in this is average at best. I will be going with 2-3" over the heart of the metro, with 3-6" over the Northwest metro including northern Hen. county.

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  46. I'm still more interested in Monday's storm system than today's storm. I'm quite confident that a Blizzard will develop over portions of MN/WI by Monday evening & this will come as quite a surprise to many, especially after they experience temps in the 60s/70s on Sunday. THIS IS WHY I LOVE LIVING IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY; Never a dull moment.

    Anyway, as far as today is concerned, I just can't imagine getting much snow in the MSP metro. The storm is moving too fast, there is still a lot of warm air to overcome, and this storm is simply not a powerhouse in all layers of the atmosphere. With that being said, I would expect most of the MSP metro will receive a general 1"-3" snow. However, the timing is horrible since it will be falling right during the PM commute.

    Meanwhile, I still expect areas just North of the MSP metro to receive 4"+ of snow. This would include STC & DLH.

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    1. @Novak, I too love extremes but how is it possible to have a blizzard one day after highs in the 60/70's, don't you need some cold air first? All I see is temps cooling into the 40's, isn't blizzard too strong of a word to use. At this point many are saying a repeat of today where rain turns to snow at the tail end and may coat the ground. When you say 'portions' of Minnesota I'm assuming you think a blizzard will occur from somewhere just north of MSP to the Iowa border because thats where the 60's and 70's are forecasted on Sunday, correct?

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    2. Sam,
      Of course, it is nearly impossible (& foolish) to say that the MSP metro will experience a blizzard early next week. However, my confidence is high that someone in MN/WI will get hit hard with significant snow & wind on MON into TUE.

      I won't be surprised to see the MSP metro high temp reach well into the 60s to near 70 degrees on Sunday & potentially into the 60s on Monday. Then, temps could plummet in a hurry late Monday night (perhaps a 20 to 30 degree temp drop in a matter of hours). Combine this with some snow, & you will have quite a change on your hands.

      As usual, the track of this monster storm is the key. It will be interesting to see if that storm tracks further south than expected.

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  47. Not for nothing but I hate the weather channel app radar, its been showing moderate/heavy for over an hour now but I look outside and its just rain. The radar is not accurate.

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    1. Sorry, I meant to say showing moderate/heavy snow.

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  48. Ok....so I walked to my daughter's bus stop with an umbrella and rain falling....while waiting for the bus a few flakes mixed in.....and by the time we got back home, 10 minutes later all snow with big fat flakes in Golden Valley!

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  49. Well that didn't last. Zero inches in Mpls. Lame.

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  50. Novak good call on the blizzard for Monday.....NWS has hinted to it as well in their afternoon discussion......but as usual its not effecting the metro....NWS has heavy snow with 12+ band of snow going thru Northern Minnesota.....there goes my last ditch chance to grab the Snow Bowl from my brother.

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  51. I measured at 2.5 inches in Hudson at 6 pm.

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  52. Good forecast today for those who went with a coating or an inch or so of slush.

    Love and respect most TC weather folks, but Ian Leonard is a total fraud.

    Earlier this week he was adamant about "3+ inches of snow in the metro" with today's storm...and saying "don't believe those who forecast temps near 60 for Sunday."

    Tonight? An inch of slush at best with today's storm, and his forecast of "near 60" for Sunday.

    You're an actor Ian. Leave the real meteorology to those who know the profession and have approves track record of success.

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  53. Good forecast today for those who went with a coating or an inch or so of slush.

    Love and respect most TC weather folks, but Ian Leonard is a total fraud.

    Earlier this week he was adamant about "3+ inches of snow in the metro" with today's storm...and saying "don't believe those who forecast temps near 60 for Sunday."

    Tonight? An inch of slush at best with today's storm, and his forecast of "near 60" for Sunday.

    You're an actor Ian. Leave the real meteorology to those who know the profession and have a proven track record of success.

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  54. I think we have seen the end of accumulating snow for the core MSP metro.
    Still above average, but I feel a bit disappointed considering how much cold we endured.

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    1. Yep, I agree. Seems like the last month and a half the storms just graze or miss the metro or have minimal effects snow wise, case in point next two systems next week. Mondays storm has trended north and west last two days with the major snow going north(good to be a snowlover in Duluth this month) and then Wed/Thur system is trending south and have little impacts in the metro. Its been awhile since we have had a direct hit in the metro, probably when we got that 9.9 was the last time.

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  55. @ Novak weather. I agree with your travel impact map. It looks good to me. The ensemble means from both the Euro and Gem based off the 03/28/12z runs seem to agree with their operational solutions. The caveat to that is the ensemble means that the GFS showed, it was somewhat east and south of the operational.with it's surface low. I think the GFS ensemble run is incorrect, but due to respect of that solution, I would give your travel impact an above average confidence level of 7out of 10. One more run of the models will likely take that to a high confidence of 8 out of 10.

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    1. All that means Randy is put away the snow shovels and fine tune the mower if you live in the metro and points south.

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    2. Let me expand, this system late next week impacting Minnesota is not out of the question. The Gem and GFS operational says no. The EURO says it will. The Euro ensemble forecast seems to agree, and to some extent the GEM ensemble forecast as well. Both show more energy over the northern US that may pick up the southern energy trough over the SW US and rotate it around the base of the aforementioned northern trough bringing a strong system over MN... I'm not buying the southern track that the GFS and GEM operational's are trying to sell us. Lets see what happens.

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  56. So Dr. Novak and his sidekick Mr. Randy.....looks like Monday's system has come south some so as winter storm watches have been hoisted as close to the metro as St. Cloud(65 miles) and NWS is calling for rain to turn to snow in the metro with 1-2" of snowfall by Monday night. So any chance this storm moves even further south and effects the metro with even greater snowfall. NWS says there is still uncertainity in regards to track so in that regard the potential still exists, just wondering your thoughts on the matter.

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  57. @bigdaddy obviously no change for the metro, one because Novak isn't saying much and two no watches for the metro. Give it up on the snow and payoff your brother already!

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  58. Latest GFS says 10-14 inches for this Fri???

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  59. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 31, 2014 at 1:03 PM

    Bring it for Thursday/Friday. Seems like a real threat of some serious snow when looking at the models. What do you think bigdaddy, randyinchaplain, Novak, Randy Hill???? I trust you guys. Bring it.

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  60. How is it possible no comment on the THU-Friday storm?

    Looks like much more promising than this has ever been. Yet we saw a few Novak videos on that one and none for this potential other one?

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    1. Because promise and potential often yields nothing, were talking 72 hours away, today it may say a foot and come day of the storm you'll get 2 inches. Major storms never hit the bullseye three days out, it either wavers north or south.

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  61. Looks promising! ;-)

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  62. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 31, 2014 at 4:46 PM

    The master speaks!! I love it when Dr. Novak says "Looks promising!!!" Bring it!

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  63. The Euro drops the heaviest snows just to the north of MSP, say the Cambridge/Hinckley area. The GFS drops it further south say the Red Wing area. The Gem has it squarely over the metro the last two runs, albeit just a bit south with the 31/12z run. Having said that, I'm a bit concerned about the UKMET that seems to take it further south impacting WI more than MN, and it has support from the JMA. While I would normally discount the JMA, the UKMET solution has to be reckoned with. The whole key to this system resides at the 500mb level, IMHO if the H5 trough can go to a negative tilt early enough, that will pull the surface cyclone just far enough north to impact eastern MN including the metro. If I were forced to make a prediction I would go with the EURO, it seems to have been locked onto this solution for the last couple of days. See my post before this one.

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  64. My curiosity is certainly peaked for Friday. Could be a major storm for someone.

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  65. New thread issued for possible storm late this week.

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