Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Goodbye Summer

Yowser, summer left town with all the urgency of Kevin Love. Indeed, it's not a pretty picture for summer lovers. The abrupt change prognosticated by local forecasters has arrived and it looks like the cool weather is here for a while (dare we say for about eight months?).

From Paul Douglas's weather blog:
Today redefines the meaning of foul with a slow, rainy AM commute. A cold north wind kicks in behind the storm, gusting to 30 mph as temperatures sink thru the 50s. A second shot of moisture arrives Friday; the atmosphere aloft ALMOST chilly enough for a rain-snow mix Friday night. Frost outside the metro early Saturday gives way to 60s and 70s next week.

Still, it could be worse. Here's how forecasters from Calgary characterized the incoming weather change -- gotta love their sense of humor!


  1. Just stepped out for the first time today(since very early this morning)....fall is definitely in the air, what a cool crisp day.....markedly better then yesterdays warm humid mosquito filled experience at my girls soccer practice......I would take this 50 degree day over that any day. Hope this coolness is here to stay, I know we will be in the 50/60's till at least early next week......AHHHH Fall my second favorite season, one would say there is a hint of windchill today!!

  2. Plymouth Weather LoverSeptember 12, 2014 at 12:23 PM

    I know that some will get mad with this entry because maybe they don't want to talk about the s-word yet, but here is what I suggest. Bill--maybe a future (soon) post?? There is starting to be a lot of talk about what our winter holds regarding cold and snow. No one, of course, knows, but don't you think it would be fun to have all of the experts, and not-so-experts, on this site predict what the snow totals will be? (Or any other winter stat--but snow is the most fun.) Dave Dahl does his "snow-o-meter" every year, but let's do our own. And, even better, instead of throwing out a random number, you need to give some sort of reason why. It could be a "fun" reason or it could be a scientific, historical, or other reason. As a snow-lover, I would love to see the predictions and follow how well people did. I have been so impressed by several on here that I bet some will nail it.

    Humor me!

  3. Rosemount reported a low of 26° this morning. You betcha summer is gone!!

  4. Might want to update this post. Forecast is for 70s by this weekend, with dew points in the 60s.

  5. I don't think we need a new thread yet, however it seems like the ECMWF, GFS and GEM plus their ensemble means are strongly hinting at a severe threat close to home on Friday evening. While we have seen this threat a few times this year in the 4-7 day time frame, I would be surprised if the ridge gets suppressed early as so many other systems have done. Time will tell.

  6. Here's my prediction for winter:
    Some cold and snow. Not quite as cold as last winter. But still cold, 'cause heck, it's winter.
    At some point someone will compare a storm system to the "1991 Halloween Blizzard" storm, though it will not even come close to comparing.
    Dave Dahl will use the phrase "interesting" in reference to potential storm systems over 200 times this winter.
    We'll see several storms "sail just south and east of the MSP metro area" much to the shagrin of many snow lovers. Western MN and Southeastern MN will see more snow than the MSP airport
    But we'll see some decent storms too.
    March will fool us into an early spring, then dump more snow.
    Spring will eventually come.

  7. Read Dave Dahls blog over at KSTP tonight......he mentions snow not once but twice.....Hahahahaha seasons are a changing, yes indeed!

  8. bigdaddy and anyone else that is interested.

    Concerning the upcoming winter season. Some of you that have come to Bills site before have seen me talk about telleconections, ie the relationship between what is happening in certain regions of the oceans and how they effect our winter season.

    For instance last year's winter was driven by what is referred to as the Eastern Pacific Oscillation or EPO for short. When the EPO is in its negative state as it was last year, we normally see very warm sea surface temps in the Gulf of Alaska and possibly in the Bering Sea, and that was the case last year during the winter season. With those warm waters it facilitated ridging and thus warmer temps in the Alaska area. As of today those water temps are still well above normal. While I can't find the EPO values recently the sea surface temps are still quite warm prompting a negative EPO.

    Than we go to what is called the Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) which describes the pattern over the Eastern Pacific and the West coast of the US. Unlike the negative EPO as described above, a positive PNA means warm waters off the western US coast , which will promote warm and dry weather. That signal was persistent last winter and continues to this day, see the western drought. I really don't see much of a change from last year to this year when it comes to the sea surface temps along the west coast to Alaska, those waters should stay warm. Even if the well advertised weak to moderate EL Nino should show up in the next 30 days, it will take the atmosphere a good 30-60 days to respond.

    So comparing the Eastern Pacific as seen by the EPO and PNA indexes, I don't see much of change this upcoming season as opposed to last year

    I think you can get a idea where I'm going with this, when it comes to the winter of 2014/2015. Over the next two days I will look at what is expected over the far Eastern to Northern Atlantic and make some kind of weather prediction for the five state area of ND/SD/MN/WI and Iowa.

    sorry for any typos

    1. Good stuff Randy.....I always enjoy reading your weather perspective, cant wait for your follow-up piece.
      BTW.....its official.....NWS mentions snow chance even for the metro for Friday night....first mention of snow of the season!!

  9. New post in honor of Friday night's forecast: