Wednesday, December 3, 2014

A Backwards December?

After an unusually cold November, weather eyes in Minnesota turned to maps suggesting a much warmer than average December was on the horizon. Indeed there was a collective sense that a major pattern shift was ongoing, with your intrepid blog author and former Minnesotan looking out at big puddles in Northern California.

Might there be any possibility that December will clock in warmer than November? Several years ago when a summery March took over the country, April was actually colder than March in Minnesota. So a seasonal reversal would not be unprecedented.

As always, time will tell. Use this space to comment on warm air that's coming (or not) and any snow (or rain!) that may be coming.

132 comments:

  1. The guy on the Weather Centre Blog (http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/) is usually fairly accurate when predicting cold outbreaks. He's still holding out hope that we won't go into a dry blast furnace this month. I think Joe Bastardi said this past Saturday that December will have some somewhat warm days, but that temps should be about average up in our area for the month. These two forecasts are in stark contrast to the hazy, hot and humid December forecasts being put out for our area by other mets.

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  2. Paul Huttner is talking about at least a week of LOW temps above freezing and an El Nino generated heat wave continuing well into January! I sure hope he's wrong, wrong, wrong!

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    1. Yep, Paul Huttner is all in on a very mild December, jumping onboard the GFS 50's heat wave for the third week of December. You know who could be wrong, wrong, wrong, our very own Randyinchamplain, who just last week was calling for a very below average winter for us. ALL signs point to a warm bias, no sudden stratospheric cooling on the horizon.

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    2. It would be strat warming that we would be looking for if we were looking for a major cold outbreak. A cold start to the month, and probably a cold finish with warmth in the middle. Too soon to say whether or not we will have a brown Christmas, but I'm thinking we'll lose most, if not all, of our snowpack over the next 10 to 15 days. The big question will be, once that trough out west starts making its way to the east, will it spin up a storm close to Christmas time? Certainly is a possibility.

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  3. I am looking forward to the December warm up. To borrow the words of Plymouth Weather Lover, Bring it Baby, Bring it!!!!

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    1. Right there with you! I don't know what I'd do without icy roads and the threat of traffic deaths like our first storm, which brought us, what, 9 fatalities?

      "All other tropical storms must bow before El Nino!"

      -- the late, great Chris Farley

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  4. Wow!.......I like breaking records and all, but never have I fathom we would be breaking high temperature records in mid-December in Minnesota of all places. You know I would be cool with just average temps, I dont care for the arctic stuff.....but 50's in December is ridiculously warm and thats what both the Euro and GFS is showing about a week from now and not just for a day, but a string of 40's and 50's and the overnight lows wont even be falling below freezing.....I like winter and all the recreational events around it this will definitely put a damper on things. Paul Huttner already calling it a heat wave, well I guess if you didnt finish racking your leaves you can do it still.....with shorts on, now wheres the propane for my grill, if you cant beat them(Mother Nature that is) might as well join them.

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  5. Who is this Andrew over at theweathercentre.blogspot.com? He should be taken out back and shot(sarcasm), but seriously his opening line to his latest entry at the site reads "looks like a cold and snowy timeframe for Midwest/east by mid-Decemeber, the going forecast could not be more opposite then his with dry conditions expected with near record highs in many locations, if he does this for a business and has many clients depending on his forecast/outlook he has stirred them the wrong way and probably lost them some money if they had to prepare for the weather ahead.

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  6. According to the GFS it's going to get very April-like around here and stay that way for weeks. Here's hoping the GFS is dead wrong!!

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    1. Not sure which forecast you're looking at. Even the notoriously bad GFS has backed off the warmer weather.

      met.no and NOAA are fairly close too -- most of next week now looks miserable. No more highs in the 50s.

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  7. The GFS and it's blowtorch are wrong after the middle of December.

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  8. Randy Hill's winter forecast is out.

    http://chasetheplains.com/

    He is using 3 analog years 1969/70, 1976/77, 1979/80. I don't have 69/70 in mine because it had a positive QBO signal, but the results are about the same. My winter forecast that I posted on this site at the end of October used analog years of 58/59, 76/77, 77/78 and 79/80. Since then I have added 2002/2003 as it was the only similar year in the 30 year climo period from 1981-2010 and it really didn't change the outcome much.

    Two years that I wanted to bring your attention and that would be 79/80 and 02/03. Both of those years showed below normal temps in November along the lines of -1 to -2°. Both years in December showed a torch, something like +5 to +6°. Jan 1980 averaged -2° and 03 was about normal with a slightly cooler signal. However February was a different story, 1980 was -3 to-5° below normal while 2003 was -5 to -6 below normal.

    Yes we will see a period of seasonal temps with a couple of days above normal up until about 12/17 and then I think the pattern will change to the colder side. I'm still calling for temps to be 2-4° below normal for us and 3-5° below normal for the Ohio Valley area.


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    1. Thanks Randy! I like the 1979-80 analogue quite a bit. First reason is because it follows the winter of 1978-79, which was nearly identical to last winter. Winter forecasting is all about identifying the correct teleconnections and picking the right analogue years. I had 1978-79 as an analogue last year, and I think it is one of the reasons why my forecast was good for last winter.

      I think there will be brief warm periods (like the end of next week) more often this winter than last winter, and why this winter will be warmer than last. Overall, I'll be surprised if we don't end the winter below average.

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  9. How do I want to put this, I have to be careful here,

    Granted I love the blogs that Paul Douglass and Paul Hunter put out, and I respect their opinions, however I think they are tied to the ENSO, and any positive signal means warm up here. Quite frankly I don't think they look at other tendencies . That is a mistake on their part.

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  10. Paul Douglas is all in on our upcoming thaw and pacific pattern change......he has high temperatures by Friday of 46 and Saturday 52!......He is already hinting at a brown/biege Christmas and says the mild/warmer basis should last thru most of Decemeber and says tommorrow's snow is the last snow looking out two weeks.....some bold statements/forecasts, time will tell if he is correct.

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  11. Paul Huttner is saying warm next week, but then a return to more December-like temperatures the following week. Bastardi is saying the same thing, that this warm is just a hiccup, not a multi-week scenario. Winter fans, let's keep our fingers crossed that we don't lose the month of December to warm, dry conditions.

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    1. Always intriguing when theres conflicting forecasts. Paul Douglas would disagree with the above post.

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    2. I agree. Paul Douglas and Kare-11 always seem to be "warm biased". Hmmm, is that a mere coincidence given that Paul and Belinda Jensen have such a close working relationship (e.g. Weather Nation)?

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    3. To Paul Douglas' credit he does say that it is unlikely that the Pacific flow will dominate this winter's pattern.

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    4. Our good Dr. Novak has jumped on the Douglas Pacific train, he just commented on social media that no bitter arctic air coming and then looks like most of December will be mild. So make that two for a lost December.

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  12. Time will tell. One side or the other is going to drop the ball big time. There is a huge disparity between seasonal/below average highs in the 20's (or colder) v. highs in the 40's or warmer.

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  13. It's not just the temps for me, it's the quieter pattern overall. No matter where we end up temp-wise at week's end, it's just been really quiet lately, and looks to be for awhile (though I know things can change on a whim). Such a difference from last winter when it pretty much snowed every day in December. Very cold too.

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  14. I just don't see anything interesting for the 2 or 3 weeks at least. Split flow pattern with significant energy down south just doesn't bode well for storm lovers up here in the Upper Midwest. Plus, this split flow will keep bitter Arctic air bottled-up in Canada.

    Quite frankly, this looks like a classic El Nino type of weather pattern. If you can find me some true Arctic air, then I will change my tune, but even much of southern Canada looks mild for the next few weeks. Hell, I was surprised that there was snow talk for today. It is just too warm.

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  15. White Thanksgiving now a brown Christmas, this blows! Turn the blowtorch off...........

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    1. I will second that! It's December in Minnesota. It's supposed to be cold and snowy. Most of us don't want 50 degrees in August and we sure as heck don't want 50 degrees in December, January or February. Paul Douglas is now touting the long range forecasts that are calling for above normal temperatures throughout the entire winter! I had a really bad feeling that last winter was just too good to be true (if you're a winter fan) and that the trend would not continue.

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    2. I as well, depressing! NWS Twin Cities just tweeted odds favor a mild brown Christmas vs. a white Christmas. When was the last brown Christmas? Im sure it will be a white Easter then.

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    3. Last brown Christmas was 2011. It was glorious. Roads were dry, travel was easy. Took my daughter to the park on the day after Christmas.

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    4. MNDOT does a pretty good job, you dont have to sweat over wet/icy/snow covered roads and travel unless we get hit with a blizzard on the 24th and 25th. And Im sufe your daughter would enjoy tubing and sledding just the same.

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  16. I'll take this weather pattern for as long as we can get it! I'd take 50 in December any day.

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    1. 50's are great.................for October!

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  17. Is it me or is it funny to see a continuos "anonymous" dialogue? Not a jab - just tough to follow the conversation and who's saying what. oh well. back to boring weather.

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    1. Agree! Would certainly be nice if people IDed themselves -- not asking for credit card info.

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  18. Paul Huttner shows a very mild winter ahead with various long range models, totally refutes the cold basis that our very own Randyinchamplain and Randy Hill put out in their winter forecasts, one would wonder why they believe that when looking at the long range models Huttner just put out.

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  19. Temperatures were a miss today by some 8-10 degrees.......struggling at around 20, when a high of 28 was forecasted.

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    1. Yeah. The cloud forecasts bombed. Was seeing mostly sunny even yesterday evening. I'd expect to see grey skies much of the next week...especially once that warm mid-level air kicks in.

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  20. According to Randy Hill's twitter feed, A colder, stormier, pattern is likely the last 10-12 days of December. Don't lose hope for a white Christmas yet and at least a couple of more chances for snow the next two weeks, especially the week leading up to Christmas.

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    1. I'm losing hope for a brown christmas.

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  21. I'll believe this balmy forecast when I see it happen, and not a moment before. Clouds have ruined so many nice-weather forecasts over the years, and if it's cloudy on Sat/Sun, hell, we might not even see 40. Right now met.no is saying 47 Sat, 53 Sun, with all 48 hrs of the weekend above freezing. I'll be more than happy to eat crow if that happens.

    Bring it.

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    1. Hard to imagine we don't hit 40. We're looking at 850 mb temps near 16C which is near record territory for all of December.

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  22. According to NWS and Dave Dahl the potential is there for a possible snow event late Sunday into Monday.....though it can easily just go south and miss us all together.....but good to see our thaw/warm-up is only a three day thing.....temperatures getting back to near normal by Monday and Tuesday....we dont need anything arctic just enough cold to support snow before Christmas.

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    1. @big daddy, I echo your sentiments that the warm up appears to only be a somewhat toned down 3 day event. That is a relief after hearing for at least a couple of weeks that the warm up was going to be rather intense and very long lasting. I also agree that we don't need an arctic invasion. We instead need temperatures in the 20's with snow! Sven on Kare 11 is convinced that there will be no snow through the rest of the year. I hope Kare keeps with its reputation of often being wrong. We need a white Christmas! As PWL would say "bring it"!!

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    2. Paul Douglas is on the "No Snow through Christmas" bandwagon also.

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  23. Since the weather is boring in Minnesota and exciting in California, I did a video with Patrick Hammer about California weather. A nice change of pace! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Ik_ZZdZOg

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  24. I don't want to spark a debate about the validity of this long-range forecasting methodology, but wanted to share Andrew's latest post regarding his thoughts on a potential Xmas snowstorm that he sees on the horizon.

    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

    Basically, there's nothing exciting to talk about in the short term here in MN, so it's fun to at least see that someone, somewhere believes there's a storm to keep an eye out for! (Purely entertainment)

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  25. Only ten days until the solstice! And 50s are in the forecast for Sunday. After that, seasonal temps, quiet weather. Lovin' it!

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  26. met.no is now saying 48 Sat, 55 Sun, but then a huge crash starting around 6pm that day. The record for Sun is 55 set in 1998.

    Bring it.

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  27. This system coming in Monday is interesting. I have thought for the last 4 days that the models were setting up a nice baroclinic zone over SE MN and some snow would be possible on the back side if the surface low would track far enough to the nw. My thoughts have been around about a 30% chance as the models were rather consistent at suppressing the system to our south. Now it appears some accumulating snow will be possible from the metro and points south. The Gem, the ECMWF and the Parallel GFS are now showing that possibility. Given that this is a complicated set up, I would give the chance about 50% at best, but chances are increasing. Currently it looks to be advisory type snow fall amounts. Lets see what develops.

    By the way, I mentioned the parallel GFS model. The GFS is soon to get a major upgrade, maybe in the next 2 weeks, that is what the parallel is.

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  28. Come on randyinchamplin you can do better than 50%. :-) It's funny how so many forecasters latched onto such a warm December, yet after our warm weekend, it will be in the 20s all of next week. Snow is becoming a real possibility on Monday, and that's the first of what could be three chances of snow before Christmas. Another storm is possible next weekend, and the GFS has been surprisingly consistent on bringing back NW flow and the chance of a clipper or two Dec 23-25th.

    It's possible MSP could miss all of these and still have a brown Christmas. But for those saying it's going to be warm with no chance of snow before Christmas, it's just not true.

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    1. Ha Ha....you read my mind well, I tempered my thoughts by going with 50%, the baroclinc zone has been set up by the presence of a SE ridge and I suspected that the models were to quick to suppress it, thus allowing the system to slide off to east. The other question was if the upper low would get cut off over Texas. I thought there were only two options. A cut of low over Texas which would allow the system to slide out to sea over the SE US, or the upper low would not get cut off, thus causing it to lift to the north along the western edge of the ridge. The second option now looks to be the best.

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  29. I've heard from a few people that the skill scores between the GFS and GFS Parallel are practically the same. Having a smaller grid is nice, but I think the GFS has a bigger issue when it comes to assimilation and a finer grid won't fix that.

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    1. Absolutely, your right. Data assimilation as it is imputed into the model as initial conditions is always the key. But a finer grid can help as well. Lets take the 12/11 18z runs of the models. The regular GFS brings a storm system into the Great Lakes area around the 21st, the Parallel GFS and the ECMWF develop the storm over the eastern seaboard. It will be interesting to see when the Parallel GFS gets upgraded to the Operational GFS.

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  30. After getting a look at the 12/12 0z runs of the GFS and the GEM I'm going to raise my snowfall chances for Monday night into Tues morning to 65%. It may take only one or two more model runs to move that to 100% for snow chances in MN. Where that will be is anyone's guess at this point.

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    1. where can you access the Parellel GFS output?

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    2. Tropicaltidbits.com is a nice site for reviewing most(but not all ) parallel GFS data. Parallel GFS should be fully functional by mid January.

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  31. Guess who is now intrigued about Mondays snow event after claiming el nino pattern kicked in nothing but mild and quiet is now even putting out a travel impact graphic, you guessed it Dr. Novak.
    I say let it snow!

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  32. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 12, 2014 at 5:33 PM

    A snowstorm wrapped in a surprise bow. Those are the best!! Bring it!!

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    1. I find it mildly amusing how Paul Douglas and Paul Huttner have been stating in their blogs over the past couple of weeks that there is no sign of a white Christmas. They instead were saying that it would be mild and dry through the end of the year. Now they are talking about possible plowable snow Monday/Tuesday and a second chance of snow around Christmas Day. PD had also been touting an extensive blow torch forecast into January. It just goes to show that the weather can change on a dime around here. As a winter proponent I am encouraged by the latest news of snow, a white Christmas and colder temperatures back to normal highs in the 20's. Snow and 20's is the perfect forecast. We don't need 30 below zero. Besides, when it's that cold we don't get snow anyway due to the arctic high sitting over us with sunny, cold skies. Snow fans unite! Keep your fingers crossed....and Let it Snow!!!

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    2. @Snow Meister......could not have said it any better then you just did.....you are right on the money about PH and PD.........especially PD, hes soooooo annoying when he says crap like "don't see snow of any flavor or no snow now thru Christmas".....and then he has to back track. He always says dont look beyond 7 day and crystal ball becomes murky and then makes insane statements. I also echo the words about the cold air....we dont need or want arctic air, just 20's would be fine.
      Some snow would be good for business for sure as well as winter break is coming and I will be taking a break as well with my kids and would love some snow to have some outdoor recreational fun with them.
      For all those that love this weekends weather.....enjoy, soak it all in.....because winter returns Monday and I am rooting it on......let it snow.....let it snow......let it snow, if you like warm mild weather thats what spring and summer is for.....we snow lovers would like to enjoy winter weather.

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    3. Amen, @bigdaddy! Well stated!

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  33. I just wish there was more cold Arctic air available for Monday's storm. It is going to be a challenge to squeeze 2"+ of snow out of this thing. Plenty of liquid though.

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  34. 50 degrees in Lakeville right now and 48 at the airport. All my snow in the yard is gone! :-(

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  35. 51 at Airport now. Blowtorch!

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  36. Monday looks too warm, too long.....mostly rain....crap!........If we get a white christmas it will be by the skin of our teeth.....someone give me some hope....because my hope is fading.

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  37. All snow gone in yard. Kids running around neighborhood in t-shirts. Laughter. Sun just came out. 51 outside. Snow-man in yard = dead. Taking kids out for ice cream tonight.

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  38. Seems like most Twin City stations missed the magnitude of another extreme warm up. WCCO, KARE only went mid 40s this weekend...lower than reality as usual. So much for "conservative" forecasts.

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  39. Just read NWS forecast. It looks like they are no longer expecting snow for Monday. Rain?! Really?!! Very disappointing news!!!

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  40. This was never a system to be excited about so I do not understand the disappointment.
    How could people really expect accumulating snow after 2 days in the 50s?
    Let's stop the wishful thinking and come back to reality.

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  41. You do realize the ground is frozen several inches below the surface, right? 2 days in the 50s won't prevent snow from accumulating. In fact, we'll still likely get some accumulation.

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  42. Now this is bizarre. Mid-December and water on top of the ice on lakes, no snow, and crappy fog. Oak Marsh golf course is open Sunday. Looking for a report on the Pineapple Express aftermath from Bill.

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  43. Replies
    1. Dude/Dudette: Way to early to call winter a bust

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  44. Looks like they've upped the snow amounts back to the 1-3" range. The morning NWS discussion talks about slightly higher amounts possible if rain changes to snow faster than expected tomorrow night.

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  45. NWS is at it again with regards to their weather headlines and painting a really fine picture with warnings and advisories. First thought is the counties currently in a warning were never in watch(winter weather possible) or a advisory. Also in regards to the warning area most times they are bracketed by advisories to the north and south this time it appears it is encircled(like the warning area is right in the middle of advisories). Secondly it looks like they made a conscious effort to bypass the metro with advisories, they come right up to Hennipen cty border and go to the north.
    This situation looks fluid and I bet the headlines will expand and/or be downgraded.

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    1. I continue to be baffled on why this bothers you. The confidence for a WWA/watch was not there until this morning/afternoon. At this time yesterday it looked like more rain than snow.

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    2. The NWS seems out of sorts, I agree somewhat with Sam, look at their graphic it shows a fairly large area of 2-4" in the CWA, this area includes the counties under a warning and advisories and nothing at all. Whats up with that??

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    3. Read the AFD, the warning was put out because the possibility of significant icing and strong winds.

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    4. The advisory/warning seems to line up more with the ice accumulation forecast, than the snow.

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    5. I did read the AFD, the aviation portion of it calls for 3" at the airport and their graphic shows 2-4" that would warrant an advisory, so their graphic and discussion doesnt follow the headlines, so their out of sorts.

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    6. Totally agree with you, the NWS is throwing out mix signals, not consistent.

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    7. Hahahahaha, funny. I saw exactly what Anonymous(5:01) was saying, now the aviation portion of the AFD reads "minor acculamations possible", where did the 3" go NWS? But your weather story graphic still shows 2-4" for areas with no headline at all, thats poor!

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    8. how difficult is it for you NWS-bashers that the AFD and charts are updated every 12 hrs, whereas the aviation is done approximately every 6 hrs?
      So the apparent disconnect is simply due to different times when the new data is featured in the updated forecasts.
      I am baffled at now the supposedly smart minds navigating this blog fail to understand it.

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  47. I think you guys are putting way too much into a quickly made weather story graphic that is very low on the list of priorities for the NWS. It says "2-4" possible", but nothing else I've seen has suggested that they were forecasting 2-4" in the heart of the metro. The heaviest band is going to be NW of the metro.

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    1. More so, a WWA isn't issued every time a forecast of 2-5 inches is made. It depends on many things including temperature, rate of precip, and time of impact. 2-3 inches falling moderately at best in the middle of the night doesn't warrant an advisory, but if it changes sooner or ice starts to accumulate in the metro, then an advisory would have been well placed.

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    2. This really is a non-event for the metro. The changeover to snow in these setups is always much slower to take place than forecasted. Might see an inch in spots, but that's it.

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    3. How do you know it was "a quickly made weather story graphic", you werent there. And if that truly is the case that graphic was put out at 2:03pm, it is now 11:20pm, some 9+ hours later and it is still up, new model guidance has come and gone and that graphic still remains. You also claim that the weather story graphic is a low priority, but in this day and age of social media it is of high priority to communicate to the public as quick as possible and by any means possible, so that quickly put together low priorty graphic was on twitter and facebook so its really not that low of a priority when their trying to reach as many people in the public as possible. Admit it they have inconsistences and send mix signals, I know everyone isnt perfect, but this is the federal government were talking about, I expect more from "experts"

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  48. Question for the group.....I already have a temperature drop to 40° here in Golden Valley with no precip falling yet(just drizzle/fog).....since were cooling off fairly quickly and im sure when the rain arrives we will drop even further with some evaporating cooling.....does that mean a quicker changeover to snow this afternoon/evening.

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  49. Doesn't necessarily mean a quicker changeover. Temps at the surface are expected to cool faster than the air above. So while temps at the surface might be below 32, the air above might be too warm to support ice crystals and snow initially.

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    1. The ice crystal zone looks to be saturated by mid-day, so ice crystals certainly won't be a problem. Thats why we will see fairly good precipitation rates. However, as you said there is a warm nose of air below it. This will mean rain/sleet at first.

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  50. We have as much snow on the ground now as we did in mid-August. Uuuggghh! What is the current thinking (NWS and otherwise), possibly an inch of snow here in the metro, if we're lucky?

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    1. Dr. Novak says 2-4" in his graphic! But looking around he is most aggressive, but if 2" does fall in places in and around the metro it would be a correct forecast, I believe Novak is banking on a earlier changeover to snow. On the flip side Randy Hill is only going for an 1" metro wide.

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    2. Sven on KARE is calling for a changeover around 7 pm and maybe half an inch of snow for the metro. Maybe he will be right and maybe he won't, but as most of us know by now KARE is notorious for being warm biased and ultra conservative with snow amounts. Dave Dahl is calling for possibly up to 2 inches. Dr. Novak is calling for 2-4 inches.

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  51. I visit this site often, but I rarely comment. I enjoy the insights and the banter between many of the posts on here. I also regularly visit a couple of other sites, including the Weather Centre Blog who's author, Andrew, seems to be pretty accurate. I have been following him for a couple of years now. Andrew predicted at the beginning of this month that temperatures would drop back to normal come mid-December. He was saying this while many others were predicting quite the opposite. There were even some posts on here that were outright incredulous about Andrew's prediction. Well, it looks like Andrew was right. Today is mid-December and starting tonight we should fall into a pattern of normal/average temperatures for this time of year. I just wanted to point this out. It's fun to read predictions and posts and then return two weeks later to see who was accurate and who wasn't. Thanks for reading my post.

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    1. @Bob, not entirely true there, yes we cool down starting today and are near normal the rest of the work week but by the weekend and into early next week we are some 5°-10° above average again. Keep in mind the average high is 27-28 this week. Paul Douglas is calling for " a shot at 40° and rain showers" around Christmas.

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    2. Yes, PD is forecasting that, but he was also on the "very warm and dry December into January" bandwagon over the past couple of weeks. As someone else pointed out on here a few days ago, Kare 11 and PD have a tendency to hitch their wagons to the blowtorch forecasts. Meanwhile others are saying highs in the mid-20's and possibly some light snow around Christmas before REAL cold fronts start coming through the end of the month/start of January. As always, time will tell.

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    3. CPC's 6-10-day extended forecast calls for a 70% chance of above average temps for most of MN. They were right the last time they called this.

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    4. Average highs are around 25 degrees or so. A high of 28 would be above average. There is a clear distinction between a forecast for merely above average temps versus daily blog posts touting highs in the 40's/50's (well above average) for multiple weeks.

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    5. Right, I never said anything about exactly what the temperature will be, nor does the CPC's forecast. It is merely an indication that temperatures could very well be above normal.

      FWIW, met.no is predicting upper 30s for early next week.

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  52. Radar returns are blossoming nicely to the south and west. I think if the precip rates are heavy enough we could change over to snow faster than expected. However, the 2-4" forecast by some is definitely on the very high end for the metro. I don't see that verifying. Hope I'm wrong though.

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  53. Is blowtorch the new polar vortex for this winter vocabulary?

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  54. DD who is usually more liberal on looking out for storms and predicting snow amounts is calling for a very dry split-flow pattern all the way out through the foreseeable future.

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  55. When December is all said & done, I'm confident that the month will average out much warmer than normal, with much less snow than normal.

    In theory, that would make PD & others correct in their assessments of the month. This would also point towards an El Nino type of weather pattern.

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    1. Ya think?
      Wow! Understatement of the month.

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  56. This was also posted in this aft's NWS discussion: DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME...AND UNTIL WE GET A BETTER SENSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING...AM LEANING TOWARD DRY CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.

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  57. Listening to the depressing sound of steady rain pounding against the window. What could be....should be...SNOW! What is this, Atlanta?? What a difference a year makes.

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  58. To tell you the truth it was a little depressing yesterday being a snowlover, first with all that rain and then all the talk from DD, Novak and NWS about split flows and how dry it will be till the end of the year. Then today happened.......fresh coating of snow, granted it was only an inch but at least everthing is white and not a ugly greenish brown and then I saw the 8-14 precip proabilities which looks rather active for us and then finally I read PH's blog which talks of snow potential and interesting weather for Christmas week , so a white Christmas is still on the table as well as some outdoor recreational activities during school break....sorry PWL.....but in your famous words.....BRING IT!

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  59. I'd say looking at the 0Z run of the EMCWF things may be very interesting around here xmas week!

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  60. This is an excerpt from this afternoon's NWS discussion referring to the GFS & Euro models for next Monday: BOTH MODELS STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. Is this the type of "winter" we're in for this season? Rain and then if we are lucky a token amount of snow on the back side of the storm?

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  61. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 16, 2014 at 5:29 PM

    I was wondering if there would be talk of snow attached to Christmas Eve and/or Christmas. And, then it happened. Let the talk begin as that would be the best gift ever--a snowstorm on Christmas!! Bring it!!

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  62. A very busy pattern looks to be taking shape starting early next week. There are some potential good hits lurking out there. We might get a white Christmas after all......at least there's potential.

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    1. Not to be a Debbie downer, because I like snow as much as the next person and also want a white Christmas, yes theres potential but in reality its a longshot. This weekends thaw will melt whatever you have now, Mon/Tues system is on the warm side with above freezing temps so at best we see a rain/snow mix and the storm around Christmas is too far east, unless your traveling to Chicago or Milwaukee or Green Bay those would be areas inline for a white dumping, for us?, may I suggest the weather channel, because whomever will get nailed with that storm Im sure the weather channel will have around the clock coverage on it.

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    2. Wait a few hours, the outlook will change. Oh wait, it already did. Guess your 'longshot' potential is improving.

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    3. I got a little giddy reading the NWS afd this afternoon, though its a ways away alot could change so dont want to get my hopes to high....but please bring what you got mother nature!

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    4. @Phil and @bigdaddy, relax yourselves its one models depiction of what MAY happen 5/6 days from now, chances are it will change, shift, weaken, draw too much warm air, dry slot us, so any or all of the above usually happens.

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  63. You sounded pretty confident in your post this morning that it's Doom and Gloom regarding active weather here in the next week. I don't base my comments off of one model. But you may have. There are several models showing some potential. Yes, they will change between now and next week. There's no doubt.

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  64. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 17, 2014 at 5:50 PM

    It's official. When Novak starts to mention the possibility of a significant storm on his Twitter account, I get officially excited. Bring it! Lot of it!

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  65. Call me the Grinch that stole the warmth. But after the Christmas Storm we are going to go very cold. We have a quadfecta setting up. All models and their ensembles have now come into agreement. We will move to a negative Arctic Oscillation, (AO) and a negative west based North Atlantic Oscillation, (NAO) which by themselves would promote cold for the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains if not points to our east.

    So lets look deeper. All models are also showing the Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) and the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) going strongly negative. The negative PNA would strongly suggest a deep trough over the western US and the models are now showing this. Those of you that followed this site last year may remember me talking about the negative EPO and how it was responsible for our cold winter. Well suffice it to say that once again it will go strongly negative, therefore I don't think the cold will go to our east.

    Through 12/16 we were 4.5° above normal for the month, 12/17 was colder than normal so that figure will go down. We will gain some warmth this weekend. However I suspect that by the end of the month we will be near normal to possible below normal for the month.

    Now for the Christmas storm itself. As that storm starts to get organized the PNA is progged to go strongly negative as I have mentioned above. This should pop a pretty strong ridge over the SE US which I think the models are to weak with. Therefore I believe the models are too quick to break down that ridge, thus the storm is to far east. I believe a stronger SE ridge will be realized and the storm will cut further to the west. As a matter of fact the 12/17 18z run of the Parallel GFS is starting to hint at that. Stay tuned, things are a changing big time.

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  66. The models last night started a trend that continues this morning. That is, a trend toward a more northern dominant stream for next week. The clipper on Monday/Tuesday looks like a decent hit. The system doesn't seem like it's wants to move much. Kinda sits around MN for a few days with light/moderate snow. Several inches, maybe.

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  67. I know it's still several days away, but I don't like how marginally "cold" the temperatures are for Sunday through Tuesday. I hope that changes and this storm doesn't turn into a rain or mix only system for us.

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  68. Dont know what all the fuss and commotion is about over the Christmas week system, one line from the NWS sums it, "most of the serious precipitation will remain east of us", yes we will get snow from time to time(mixed with rain of course) but have you seen the forecasted temperatures through the whole time we have precipitation chances?, they will be in the low to mid 30's even at night, so with the treated roads already and temps hovering need freezing travel will be mostly wet and not an issue, as for accumulations we could get a few inches on lawns and trees and less traveled surfaces, enough to classify us for a white Christmas and satisfy all those on this blog yearning for one. This setup is a classic example of a 1-3" snowfall spread out over multiple days so you'll feel like your living in a snow globe but this system will be more remembered for the winds it will produce and the colder air it will drag down causing below zero windchills as we near Christmas then the snow it will lay down. This is hardly a major event!! And the only reason its getting so much play and attention from our social media buffs is because winter has been nonexistent around our neck of the woods since the calendar turned to December and the tick upward in activity just happens to fall during a holiday week, if not for that this would be your run of the mill MN snow system(notice I didnt say storm). Good day all and happy hunting for a real storm.

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  69. According to Paul Douglas' blog today we will be lucky to have an inch of snow on the ground by Christmas morning. Typically, how accurate is Paul Douglas? I get the feeling that he's not very accurate 5 or so days prior to the event. Who is the most accurate 5 days out, if anyone? Does anybody have any input into this?

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    1. No disrespect to PD, but TV meteorologists are terrible. They have access to all of the other models and tools available to the NWS. However, in order to make it seem like their own forecast, they sometimes to out on a limb with bold statements. Nothing in the majority of models shows we'll be lucky to get only 'an inch' by Christmas morning. Several of them are showing more than that. The fact of the matter is, it's still 7 days away, and NO ONE knows for sure what's going to happen. Even the idiots that claim they know. It's impossible to know at this point. So for all of you barking at people that are excited about the snow chances this coming week, YOU don't know either.

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    2. I may not know exactly what will happen, but I do know your math isn't that good, 7 days out?? really! Most outlets and forecasters have precip starting late Sunday or early Monday, at best 4 days out from now.

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  70. Let me slow down so you can understand. Did you even read my post, or the one I was responding to? We are talking about the possibility of snow before Christmas. That's one week from now. That's seven days on my calendar. How about yours? Some of the models show the possibility of precip Wednesday and Thursday as well. I'd ask if you look at the models. But I already know you didn't. Next time let's try discussing whether. Your attempt at being a funny guy failed miserably.

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    1. Phil, this is my site and I will not allow personal attacks. Please refrain in the future. Thank you.

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  71. New video for next week's possibilities: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3f1akm7_2Uk

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