Monday, February 1, 2016

Models Waffle, What Will Tuesday Bring?

Forecasts for Tuesday were seemingly uncertain with models taking a snow system to within possible striking distance of Minneapolis/St. Paul. What are your latest thoughts?

189 comments:

  1. Ok its time. Based on the 12/01 0z run of the ECMWF which showed very strong Positive Vorticity Advection in the upper levels reaching as far north as the metro area as of 1pm Tues, and what the overnight run of the GFS, and the 12/01 0z Nam showed my call is.

    Far NW metro including Big Lake 3-5", Far NE including northern Washington county 4"-7". Central metro to the entire southern metro 6-10". Far SE metro including Farminton and Red Wing. 10-12"

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    1. Randy, I like your call, but we see if model forecasting works out for you. Seems models still adjust 36 hrs out.

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  2. Wx Underground has moved up to 4-8" for tomorrow

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    1. Where are you seeing that? I'm looking at Wunderground's Minneapolis page and it says for Tues night: "Storm total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches."

      http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=KMSP

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    2. @Anon, under Tuesday it actually says 5-8" now. Weather.com is buying in too. They have 3-5" tomorrow, 1-3" tomorrow night for SW metro.

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    3. No it doesn't. It says 2-4. 2-4. That's what it says at the link I posted.

      If you're going to tell us that "So-and-so says we'll get this much," you need to post the link.

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    4. @Anon, I clicked on your link! Scroll down to the 10-day. You'll see 5-8".

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    5. For some reason their 7-day and 10-day don't agree. I'm seeing 3-5 for Tuesday in their 10-day descriptive forecast.

      It says: "Becoming windy. Intermittent snow or snow showers becoming steadier and heavier late. High near 30F. Winds NE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph."

      No storm totals listed for Tuesday night. Sorry, but I'm just not seeing 5-8 on Wunderground's site. Don't know why.

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    6. I was taking the 3-5" day forecast and adding it to the 1-3" Tuesday Night forecast to get 4-8" (just to show you my methodology!).

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  3. 4 inches at the airport.

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    1. Sorry, didn't mean to delete this!

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  5. At least temps rebound next weekend. Should get into the mid-30s.

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  6. Winter Storm Warning has been extended north into most of the MSP metro. Northern/western burbs in an WWx Advisory.

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  7. Winter Storm Warnings now posted for Hennepin County south to the Iowa border. Blizzard Warnings posted for south central MN.

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  8. Blizzard warnings issued for Southern MN

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  9. NWS just increased S. Wash County to 5-11 from 3-7

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  10. Ugh...I'm going to be the pessimist.

    It seems this happens a lot. Models shift in the late stages, then storm does what was previously predicted.

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    1. Its shifting further north and west because of a system in Canada that wont be as strong and wont go as far south south as previously predicted from earlier models. I highly doubt it will go back to what was previously predicted in this case. If anything it will push even further north and west.

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  11. Hoping to do a video this evening (8-ish). Anyone have questions for Dr. Novak?

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  12. 18z NAM track is holding however the "foot print" for heavier snow has gotten bigger...another NW movement.

    Bill - my question, and I believe others as well, is how difficult is it for the models to interpret a systems so dynamic such as this? How likely is it that snow totals could actually be quite a bit more since this thing is such a beast and models are having a difficult time due to this?

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    1. I'm gonna throw my two cents in on this, although I'm sure it will be addressed in their video. At this point in the game, since we are very close to the event, forecasters will often look at the CAMS (Convective Allowing Model System) in order to really pinpoint there the heaviest banding may set up, and fine tune those sharp cutoff areas. Models like the HRRR, NMM, ARW, and the HopWRF are all good ones for that. The larger models, like the GFS, Euro, and Canadian, are good for broad brushing things, but really at this point it is good to look at those high resolution models.

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  13. Would it be possible for this system to keep trending NW or is it only going to track SE if it tracks more at all?

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    1. It's possible for it to shift more NW but I don't think it would be much.

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  14. Using Paul Douglas' rule of thumb:
    model average discounted by 50% out of 12z suite gets around
    5.6 for the airport which seems reasonable at this point.
    Personally as a snow lover I always add another 25% snow-lover jinx correction so I am going with 4.2 at the airport. Hoping to be wrong of course.

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  15. This is exactly why we hold off on predictions and exact details until we get that better data put into the modeling. Bumps northwest in the track continue, which will give the whole metro the potential for more snow than previously thought. It still looks like the southeast metro will see the higher totals, and areas south and east of the metro area will see the bulk of the overall system.

    I'm really quite surprised and impressed with how well the models held the storm hitting the area. While the general track of the storm wobbled around, the big thing that never changed was the upper level support for a storm impacting the area. The look of the coupled jet, a solid temp contrast, strong low level jet feeding moisture into the storm. All these things, on top of several others, just were too perfect for a storm not to develop. The only way it didn't happen would be if the models were overdoing things aloft. That doesn't seem to be the case. So many focus on things just at the surface, but there is so much that needs to happen in the atmosphere for these systems to form up. I'm still learning about upper level dynamics and how they play into storm formation, but the little that I've learned has helped me a bit.

    Now, there are certainly still things that we will have to monitor as time goes on. Dry punches certainly can still happen, as well as moisture being drained by the warm sector thunderstorms, preventing much from totally wrapping around. I'd say the odds of this happening are very minimal at this point, but it is something that is never off the table.

    Lets not forget about the wind factor with this thing. Blizzard warnings were appropriately issued for the wind prone areas of southern Minnesota, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them expand those even more as time goes on. These are the types of storms that will close down stretches of interstates, and I fully expect I-90 to be closed at some point because of blowing and drifting snow. The 00z runs tonight, as well as the 12z runs tomorrow should really finalize things, although looking at the shorter range models such as the RAP and HRRR will be more helpful.

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    1. With all due respect a lot of nice and very informative talking but not a single number. We are less than 24 hours... give us your prediction.

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    2. Give me your name, and I'll give you my prediction! Jokes jokes! Just messing around. I know it's not really the way of a forecaster, but I've liked to give predictions the morning of. But, since there seems to be a fairly good consensus among the modeling today, I can throw some numbers out there. It's going to be a sharp cutoff in the far northwest metro area. Areas along a Worthington to Owatonna to Red Wing to Eau Claire will see the heaviest totals, likely in the 8-12 range. Totals over a foot of snow in those areas is definitely possible, if not probable. North of that, including the metro area, I'd say 6-10 inches of snow, more south metro than north metro. Places along a line from Montevideo to St. Cloud to Hinkley are going to be on that fringe area where 1 to as much as 3 could fall, depending on exactly how far north west the low does end up tracking, and how much the drier air up in that area will keep the snow at bay. I'm pretty confident in the heavier areas, but those fringe areas are going to be tricky, and have the highest bust potential. Also, I expect snow total measurements to be tricky, given the wind factor. Plenty of drifting will make measurements difficult. Fingers crossed!

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  16. Curious as to when all this is supposed to start in the MSP metro and does it have the potential to close school in the metro? SO excited for the nearing possibility of a good snow this winter. My bad knee hurts, I am counting that as good sign :).

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  17. What's odd is that Kare11 still hasn't updated their weather page. No mention of winter storm warning. Ditto with WCCO (as of 3:30pm). It's as if they don't believe it.

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    1. I think that that shows you how clued in those stations are to where people get news or their lack of commitment to keeping their websites up to date. Underscores that TV news is not a reliable source of news!

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    2. I'm with Bill here. Sven Sundgaard talked about the Winter Storm Warning at the end of the 11:30 am news cast, right after it was issued. So they know about it and they have addressed it in their forecasting. They just haven't updated their website, aka the way the majority of people get their weather in 2016.

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  18. Wondering what kind of snow we are expecting.... Concrete or light and fluffy?

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  19. I would like to know where these models are actually run? And what hardware it is done on. The nuts and bolts.. I wonder if you two can discuss that for a minute or two. It fascinates me.

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  20. The loss of some upper level support scares me as this storm evolves TUE pm. For instance:

    - The storm appears to shear out a bit at 300mb during the evening
    - 500mb vorticity loses the intense spin & circular definition, esp. after about 3pm TUE
    - The ECMWF shows significantly lower amounts of snow as you head northeast out of NE, KS.

    Simply put, these are some red flags that need to be considered when 4casting snow totals. Because of this, I just can't imagine that so. MN will experience that intense 700mb deformation band that is needed to produce 10"-12"+ of snow. I feel more comfortable to downplay this to 6"-10" from the extreme southern MSP metro on south to the IA border. Meanwhile, much of NE & nw KS gets absolutely hammered.

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    1. Tom, the euro has not acted well to the 300mb Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) it has been showing, in other words I don't think it has handled the response at the surface correctly. The GFS and NAM I think have a better response to it, however I don't have a free link to the American models that show PVA

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  21. For Dr. Novak, I'd like to see how the Euro has trended (I do not have access to it). Also this is yet another of those tight gradient storms and I'm assuming it could easily move 50 miles either way dramatically changing the snowfall totals.

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  22. Tom is you get the chance to show it, please look at the H7 and H85 layers in respect to Vertical Velocities. It will be interesting see how close the best lift is to the cold conveyor belt.

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  23. Tom, what is your favorite color?!

    (I can't compete with these questions!)

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  24. Duane
    Really!!! Your forecast amount is 1 to 12 inches. Why even take the time to type that in. Sad.

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    1. Where does he forecast 1-12"?....his post from earlier details exactly his thinking for various areas of the state.

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  25. The latest run of the RPM model which many local tv stations use as the in house model or microcast or any other such description shows 6-8" across the metro. If any met comes on and says I don't think that much is realistic needs to look closer

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  26. Our latest video with special guest Daniel Dix: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-tibo_bvAM

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  27. Biggest limitation for Minnesota and Wisconsin? Thunderstorms across the warm sector! As soon as they explode tomorrow, the cold sector dries out. I'm thinking ~5" for MSP. You can read my full forecast at chasetheplains.com.

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    1. one thing that the model suites that i use don't show is the 700mb vertical velocities, I wished that I could see those. The closer those strong values (indicating lift) are near the cold conveyor belt the greater the QPF.

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    2. 700mb VV is going to correlate pretty well 700mb winds and 700mb moisture. Stronger the wind, the higher the VV. Everything works together. 700mb VV is highest over NE where they'll see the heaviest snow, but 700mb moisture is also highest over NE. Winds/VV decrease across the cold sector as this storm elongates and moves towards WI, and so does the 700 mb moisture. At the same time the highest moisture/VV will go into the thunderstorms down south, which is no surprise.

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  28. Yeah, where did I just say 1-12? Pretty sure I specified areas that would get the heaviest and where the lighter amounts would be. Maybe I didn't make it clear enough. Novak's concerns about the 500mb vorticity losing its punch as it comes through are certainly warranted. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough in my statement.

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    1. I do this for a hobby, yes. I'm still trying to learn, and still have plenty to learn. I realize this, but still enjoy trying to figure storms out. Someone wanted my predictions, and I gave them. I'm not claiming to be a professional forecaster, and never have. If you're just going to come on here to be a dick to everyone, then maybe you need to go ahead and keep your thoughts to yourself. Bill, sorry if I have crossed any lines, but quite frankly I'm tired of the trolls this site has attracted. It has taken away from the fun discussions we've had and just become something that isn't as fun. Dan, if you want to go ahead and take a stab at predicting the totals, then by all means. Be my guest.

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    2. You go Duane, and yeah trolls have been somewhat of a problem, but that is likely to raise its ugly head
      in any blog. But for someone to criticize you without putting their own thoughts on the line is immature and child like. I would love just one to see the trolls give some reason to their post

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  30. Dan ur prolly that guy who looks at radar and sees nothing and says oohhhh no storm when u have no idea what ur talking about! Why dont u just take a chill pill and stop being a prick. I am sure Bill does not like to see people like u here and i sure dont. Duane did a great job in his summary and i do know he he knows his stuff well cause we have followed countless storms on models over the years..u cant even fathom how tough it is. We maybe weather geeks but ur a weather retard.

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  31. Wright county and Anoka county will need a winter storm warning,

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    1. May I ask how you see this? I am all for the idea since I am up here, just not sure I see it. It seems that the GFS has trended south back to its path from a couple days ago, right? I suppose you could be seeing a high-res model or something of that sort?

      All the best

      - Stormgeek

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  32. My last update using the Paul Douglas rule plus the afore mentioned 25% snow lover jinx correction yields 3.99 inches.
    So I'll go with 4 inches at the airport, revised slighly down from my previous 4.2.

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  33. Confidence is growing that the way to forecast this storm is by using the Positive Vorticity Advection scheme

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    1. So you're diverging from Novak and going all-in?

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    2. all in, take a look a the first post on this tread, I'm on record

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  34. Trolls attracted to criticize weather forecasts? That's been going on for decades. The same idiots who say they wish they could have a job where they could be wrong 50% of the time and still get paid. How original. When they have a bad day at work few know about it. When weather forecasters have a bad day every body knows it.It's amazing how good forecasts have become and how much public has learned from professional meteorologists.

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  35. Love it Randy! You have pushed all of your chips in. I watched the video that Bill, Novak, and guest did. The latest 0z runs are trending closer to what Novak was explaining. Still time for things to change but I'm going with 4.5" for MSP.

    Good luck with your prediction Randy, enjoy reading your analysis each storm.

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    1. Meanwhile, NWS just upped their estimates for my area by 1-2" (central Carver County)

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  36. @Bill...with all the deleting of posts of seen from you lately, totally shocked you have allowed this Dan Blake guy to continue. I dont blame the others who were critical of him afterwards but sure takes away from reading about this storm.

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  37. Looks like quite a few breakups in reflectivity as the storm enters Minnesota from the South. Dry air?

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    1. That is very typical when precip first entering area of NE flow. But, will be short-lived as surface-700mb levels of atmosphere are saturated with warm air advecting northward in strong fashion across Ne/Ia into srn MN. Convective snows commonplace in eastern Ne/far western Iowa attm. Very strong vort max per water vapor satellite imagery. Gonna be a rough go for southern Minnesota later this morning into the afternoon hours. MSP metro will begin to feel the impact by late AM/Noon -- rush hour will be a mess! Be safe out there folks!

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    2. Thanks for the explanation!

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  38. Thanks a ton for that video guys. Really interesting and helpful.

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  39. As someone who works and issues predictions for a living (although in a different industry) I am surprised sometimes by the lack of commitment that weather forecasters show. Some people on this blog may use the wrong tone but I think they raise a fair point in lamenting too much use of words like 'possibly' 'depending on the where the storm tracks' 'maybe" etc. One would expect it is actually part of a forecaster's job to make the best estimate of the track and then issue forecasts, but I do feel sometimes, with all due respect, that there is too much hedging, too much fear of being wrong.
    The only professional forecaster as far I can remember that goes out on a limb and makes a call is Joe Bastardi. Sometimes he's right, sometimes he's wrong.
    In the end in my business we say that "only those who provide forecasts can get them wrong" and so I think weather forecaster can and should be a bit bolder sometimes. If you are wrong it is not the end of the world anyway.
    Just a few thoughts.

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    1. Rigil...I understand where you are coming from, but in your industry, when you make a forecast, are you blasted by anonymous trolls for "hyping"? And when you do get a forecast wrong, are you personally attacked by face-less trolls for being a "so called expert"? And if you share a pre-forecast opinion, is your professionalism questioned?

      Just trying to paint a picture of what happens (on this site) when one of the experienced meteorologists makes a statement of almost any kind. I can't blame them for hedging or qualifying every prediction they make. I wish they didn't feel like they had to, since most reasonable folks should understand the difficult nature of weather forecasting.

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  40. What are your feelings this morning Randy?

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  41. I'm really, REALLY surprised that the NWS is still so bullish with their snow 4cast totals across the Metro. 6"-8" in downtown MPLS? Wow! I will be shocked if that occurs. I could see 6"+ in Dakota county, but not Hennepin.

    This storm seems to lose some dynamics as it heads northeast out of NE, IA. 500mb low & vort max shears out, 300mb jet streak punches a dry air into the system & 850mb low level jet quickly pushes off to the east. These are all signs of a decaying storm later today.

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    1. So if you were the NWS you probably would have issued a WWA instead of WSW for Hennepin County?

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  43. Interesting to see the differences in forecasts.

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  44. snow has started in Mankato.

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  45. Snow just started in Rosemount.

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  46. For those asking about the dry air and radar echos going away.

    I made a graphic for St. Cloud that tries to explain what is happening. The atmosphere will saturate as the snow falls into the dry layer.

    https://twitter.com/SCSU_Weather/status/694574702430330880

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  47. Solid coating in Bloomington now and snowing a a pretty good clip. Come on big numbers!

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  48. Just started snowing in Little Canada!

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  49. Is this shield of snow going to just push through or will it start to pivot.

    As a snow lover, I prefer the pivot idea. :-D

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    1. Weather.com's future radar shows it backfilling and pivoting. I know that future radar isn't super reliable, but it was right on all morning for timing of snow. Maybe it will be accurate for duration as well.

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    2. Wouldn't that seem to imply heavy snowfall across the core metro, if it verifies?

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    3. Yeah it would... That would lead to 6-10 inches in the metro... But that's if the band doesn't break up for 6 hours...

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  50. Thoughts as of 12:20PM:
    1) Snow in Eagan did not start out lightly. Came on strong from the moment the first flakes flew. Heavy snow for the past 45 minutes with just over an inch on the ground.
    2) I am no met, but the radar returns look like the main snow shield is quickly pushing north without much pivot to the east. Any mets care to comment on this?
    3) I am imagining the backside of this storm deteriorates as moisture gets cut off. By the time it gets to MSP , it will be light snow.
    4) Northern Iowa was supposed to get pummeled, but dryer air has filter into Northern Iowa. I just got off the phone with my brother in Mason City and he indicated the heavy snow has stopped. Said it’s all blowing around but he’d be surprised if they even got 4 inches. Sun is poking through the snowy haze.
    5) Super excited to see how this plays out. Hopefully we get a bunch!

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    1. What do you mean it will deteriorate by the time it got to MSP? Its here and is still going strong and watching the NOAA radar and seeing heavier snow developing in Rochester and pushing north and west. I'm pretty sure NovakWeather was wrong with the totals in the areas he had outlined... I think they are being pushed way north..

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    2. Yes, agreed, it is here. Probably poor choice of words by me. To my untrained eye, it looks like the system is quickly pushing north however, and not E/NE'erly. What I was trying to say is that the backside of the storm was seeming to deteriorate and become disjointed (I presumed due to moisture being cutoff, but probably other reasons.) Clearly I am not a professional, was just posting my observation.

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  51. If I'm the NWS, I would be trimming back the snow amounts now. This first band of heavy snow will dump a solid 2"-3" across the metro, but after that, it becomes risky.

    Of course, the wildcard is if a heavy deformation band of snow pivots over southern MN, including the MSP metro, later today. All reliable short range model data that I've looked at shows a pivoting band, but it also shows this band weakening with time. Also, satellite imagery clearly shows a dry punch of air surging into southern MN from IA.

    With all that being said, I simply can't imagine that any portion of the MSP metro receives more than 6" of snow. If that were to occur, it would likely be contained down to Dakota & Scott counties.

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    1. If the band stats to pivot over MSP it will come down to how fast the band weakens... That will be interesting to watch. I think by the time 3pm rolls around there should be a significant weakening of the band because of dry air and the thunderstorms to the south. Now its the waiting game...

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    2. Weather.com is scaling back totals...even with their radar showing the snow intensifying and lingering. Apparently they don't have much faith in their future radar!

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  52. I won't use a certain four letter word that begins with "B", but suffice to say snowfall amounts are underperforming, and the snow has already stopped in southern Freeborn county.

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    1. It a lot of places especially to the south the snow will be under performing because of the dry air. But over MSP there is a possibility of the snow band to pivot over the area. The question is how long will the band stay and how fast will it weaken?

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  53. Looking at the spc messo page, it appears that the 700mb frontogenises (sp) is setting up over the metro, question is will it stall?

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  54. I just checked the NWS graphic that was updated at 1:31 p.m. and I saw that the NWS has expanded the 8-12 inch range farther north to include Ramsey County and the southern two-thirds of Hennepin County. Earlier today the 8-12 inch range only went as far north as the southern two thirds of Dakota County. Is the NWS thinking that the deformation zone is going to swing over the metro later today? A real battle of the mets is going on regarding snowfall totals. Interesting.

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    1. I was just going to say the same thing. 3-6 vs 8-12 is a pretty big difference.

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    2. Yep, and score one for randyinchamplin. He predicted last night that Wright and Anoka Counties would need to be added to the warning. Voila!

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  55. As I watch the radar at the NWS, it appears the pivot is happening right on top of the core metro, and in Eden Prairie, it is snowing about as heavily as it ever snows in Minnesota. I don't believe my eyes.

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    1. Oh...and the point forecast for Uptown where I live is 5-11 inches now.

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  56. Totals and timing aside Roads are HORRIBLE! Just spent over two hours in the car picking kids up at school. New tires didn't help much Avoid routes that have hills. Hoping MSP just gets completely hammered. Keep the white stuff coming.

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    1. The snow should keep going for a while... Another heavy snow band developing in Dakota county and pushing north and west slowly. 1+ inches per hour will be likely with it.

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  57. The snow in Maple Grove is beautiful! Thick snowflakes and coming down hard - so great to finally be getting a great snowfall after not much in January! Excited to see how this storm pans out.

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    1. I've been saying the same thing. It really is a beautiful snow. It's soft and fluffy thanks to the temps and the winds haven't cranked up yet. Perfect sledding weather if you're a lucky kid out of school early this afternoon!

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  58. Any talk of the Twin Cities metro seeing 6 inches at most can end now. Started snowing in Waconia around noon and already approaching 4 inches with near zero visibility. Haven't seen it snow this hard here in a couple years.

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    1. Gained a 1/2 inch just in the 20 minutes I spent shoveling the driveway!

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  60. Water vapor imagery tells the story today. Models as I suspected did not pick up the secondary lobe along the jet streak now moving NNE over the Omaha area. This is helping to reinforce the warm air advection / 700mb frontegenesis and also will lengthening the deformation zone. Excellent radar loop depiction of said event across southern Minnesota with area from Mankato to the Twin Cities in the bonus now. Short range high resolution models did pick this up in some fashion as well as the SREFs (short range ensembles) with their beefed up snow amounts across southern/south central Minnesota.

    Currently, snowing quite impressively here in Dakota County. Snow totals in excesss of 4" and climbing fast. I think we can put the silly "it always misses the Twin Cities" comments to rest; they are about as silly as tornadoes never hit big cities which we know has been disproven quite vividly in the last 10 years.

    The pressure gradient per surface analysis is very impressive across southern Minnesota, western Iowa and northeastern Nebraska. Closing all roads S of US Highway 14 to the Iowa border was a good call. Friends in Mankato reporting terrible driving conditions in the area and south.

    Will be fun to see the final snow totals.

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    1. I beg to dissent:
      considering this is (and we'll have to see the final snow totals) probably the only serious snowstorm hitting the cities in the last 4 years the "always misses the twin cities" feeling is not that far-fetched.
      And Paul Douglas has echoed that feeling several times in his blog. it is not just amateurs, but professionals as well.

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    2. Any idea how long/if this deformation band stays around the cities?

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    3. It kind of looks like it's deteriorating pretty rapidly. But I've been wrong on that count before.

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    4. On the western side it is but for the south east metro it should be going on for the next 3-5 hours.

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    5. Pretty cool to watch. Can see this thing being fed from back through Sioux Falls.

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  61. "I think we can put the silly "it always misses the Twin Cities" comments to rest; they are about as silly as tornadoes never hit big cities which we know has been disproven quite vividly in the last 10 years."

    When it happens once a year, it seems like never.

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  62. It's been snowing about 4.5 hours and we just got to the 6" mark in Eagan. Was a bit lighter for the past 30 minutes but it has really picked up to about the heaviest I have seen all day.

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  63. The Twin Cities have had a few busts. Just goes to show the booms can happen too.

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  64. That 50 mile wide band of heavy snow over Scott & Dakota counties is definitely impressive. I won't be surprised if they measure snow totals in the 8"+ range down there. Meanwhile, accumulating snow has all but stopped for the time being in Wright, Anoka & nw Hennepin counties. Most of those areas will be lucky to reach 3"-4".

    So, it appears the classic sharp gradient may be setting up. It will be interesting to see what that south metro band of snow does over the next couple of hours.

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    1. I'm no weather expert, so I can only go by what I see, but based on what we're actually experiencing up here, I think your new snow map is still too conservative. Much of the west metro - including my backyard and the Kare 11 backyard - already has 5-6 inches and it is snowing moderately/heavily in Hennepin, Wright, Carver, and Anoka counties with the snow continuing to spin in place.

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  65. Farmington has 6"-8" and still coming down very heavy. Wind is beginning to ramp up too.

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  66. Snowing heavily in Rosemount with the winds increasing. Easily have picked up 6 inches of snow so far. This reminds me of the post-Christmas storm when we got 7 or so inches and most of the rest of the metro was around 3. It's a winter wonderland outside!

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  67. According to KARE11, snow totals so far:

    Madelia 10"
    Fairbau 7"
    Winnebago 6"
    Maple Grove 5"
    Lakeville 5"
    KARE11 5"
    Hastings 4.3"
    Eden Prairie 4"

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  68. 6"...just measured at Golden Valley....keep it coming mother nature!!

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  69. 7 inches in Woodbury and still coming down pretty hard. Watching another band of snow developing in the south metro pushing north east.

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  70. Measured several spots to get it right .... a nice sheltered area out the wind. At 9" and counting in southern Rosemount. Neighbor a few houses down had a nice 3 foot drift that swallowed up my official bright orange NWS Duluth yard stick. Awesome! Per radar and satellite signature another hour or two at least for snow. I knew there was a reason to move back home from Atlanta! :)

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    1. Where would you rank it on powder/wet scale with 1 (Colorado powder) to 10 (southern snow)?

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    2. I would give it a 4-5 -- not too heavy/sticky or too fluffy. Not super great for snowmen but takes a bit to shovel. Impressive snow event!

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    3. @Bill, it's middle of the road. Not complete fluff, but perfect for playing. Sledders and snowangels are in heaven, especially those who got out of school early! I don't know where you are, DDwx, but I found it pretty light for shoveling here; lighter than I expected, but not so light that it blows right back in place after it's moved.

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  71. 6.25 so far in central Bloomington. More falling.

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  72. HopWRF 21Z run says another 6 inches possible in the core of the metro before it is all said and done...

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  73. Let me be the first to congratulate the NWS in the Twin Cities. They went out on a limb & hit this storm damn near right on the nose. Hell, there will likely be areas of the southern MSP metro that well exceeds the totals that even the NWS was putting out.

    What an impressive & consistent snow band that has set-up across the southern metro. After viewing the short term model guidance earlier today, I would not have dreamed that this band was going to be so impressive.

    It will be interesting to hear the totals in the far northwestern metro. Not many have come in & that can only mean one thing; they haven't received much up there.

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    1. I was told that Buffalo is at 3-4 inches as of 6:30 tonight and snowing hard.

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    2. It seems that band is expanding NW into my area (western Anoka). Hoping to see a bit more snow before this is over. We have around 4-5 here as of now.

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    3. I think the most amazing thing is that the band is still over MSP and is starting to intensify again!

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  74. It's just sitting there. Not sure what snow intensities are, but it is just sitting...

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    1. It's coming down heavily in the SW metro, heavily in the NW metro, and heavily in Minneapolis. I talked to a relative still making a slow treck home from downtown Minneapolis to Wright County. Report is that Hwy 55 has very low visibility with heavy snow and covered roadways. Plows can't keep up.

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    2. Looks like heavy snow out here as well. Now it's just a question of when it dissipates. Hopefully not for a couple of hours.

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  75. Intensity in Lakeville has majorly dropped!

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    1. Heavier snow is redeveloping to your south most likely 2-4 more inches.

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  76. Wondering how the wind is impacting measurements. MSP and NWS in Chanhassen showing around 4.5" at 6 PM. Everywhere else in the metro much more. Are people over measuring due to the wind?

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  77. So what happened??? We talked with the ever-candid Dr. Novak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3kchF65Tnk

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    1. Can't watch but I was surprised to see Tom question the dynamics. I thought it was the most impressive MN storm since Nov 2014.

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    2. Thanks for the update guys! Mr. Novak, it is not at all surprising to anybody in the Cities that the airport was reporting 4 inches at 6:30 pm. If anything, that sounds low. I'm sure they're well over 6 by now.

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  78. 7 inches in SW Minneapolis as of 8:45pm.

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  79. 9" now in Golden Valley and still snowing hard

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  80. The snow over the metro has not moved in 6-8 hours and it's as intense right now as it has been all day. This is insane!

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  81. I would also like to toss out a couple of at a boys and at a girls. 1st one goes to the NWS they did a great job for the metro, I have not read back in their AFD's does anyone know what parameters they used for their forecast? Second bone goes out to Duane, it appears that he nailed the sharp cut to the NW of the metro as well as the rest of the metro. Good job to both!!!!!

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    1. But I'm just a weather nerd! ;) Thanks Randy. I missed on southern Minnesota. If that band hadn't been forced as far north as it was, the initial forecast may have been pretty close. The models mishandled the dry slot, which really killed things for those in parts of southern MN and into WI. A look at water vapor this morning showed that dry punch coming towards the area. I was hopeful it would stay south, but alas it didn't. We go into a lull now, which should give people plenty of time to clean up. Nice job all around to those who forecast. Next time though, I may take a stab at actually drawing a map, to make my lines a little more clear.

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  82. 15 days until pitchers and catchers report!

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  83. Heck of a job predicting this Randy. You stuck your neck out and hit it out of the park. Props to Novak also for his explanation in the latest video. It was a fun week following this.

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  84. With all due respect because I love his passion and knowledge, but Dr. Novak you missed the boat on this one, you were even adament towards the NWS that they change their forecast earlier. You cant get them all right Novak, mother nature will do what mother nature wants. But Randyinchamplin you sir get the gold star for this storm, your amounts were higher then anyones on here and you also saw the northern shift first and even the winter storm warnings that needed to be expanded northward. Great Job Randy!!!!!

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    1. No need to rag on Novak. He's the only one here who'll ever tell the snow freaks what they don't want to hear. And he usually right.

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    2. to Jon and Dave, thanks for the shout out, I'm very humbled. Even a amateur gets lucky once in a while.

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    3. Actually Duane's matched mine pretty well, and he is very good as a weather enthusiast, he taught me a lot over the years

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  85. Just measured shy of 12 inches in central Bloomington! Wow! And it's still snowing.

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    1. Wow that's impressive, is that away from the wind in a protective area?

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    2. Yes. it is in a protected courtyard on a concrete surface. I will measure again in the morning to see what was added overnight.

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  86. heavy snow band moving towards metro again...western Hennipen getting blasted right now..looks like a slow mover as well..1" an hour with it.
    Yes Randy and Duane great job guys for nailing this!

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    1. and Duane and I have have not corresponded in the last two years. We came up with these forecast independent of each other.

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    2. Thanks bigdaddy! I know that I missed on areas across far southern Minnesota, but not much I can do about that. It is still fun to try to project snow totals.

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  87. looks like a coupe of more inches here in the metro. Radar returns support this as well as the Meso analysis page at the Storm Prediction Center. 850mb frontgenesis is just north of the metro.

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  88. yeah returns are filling in, instead of forcing at the 700mb level it is now showing up at the 850mb level as the frontgenesis drags the snow over the metro. This is nuts, even I didn't think it would go this late.

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  89. @Randyinchamplin...its snowing as hard as it was this afternoon when the storm rolled in...if not harder...you are correct this is nuts....best snowstorm for the metro since Domebuster(2010) in my opinion!

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  90. I know most are sleeping.....but still snowing light to at times moderate @2:30am.

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  91. Intensity in Lakeville has majorly dropped!

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  92. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    2. Holy Cow Anon @ 8:03 am. A little sensitive are we? I don't think Anon's @ 4:55am post was a personal attack that I believe you think it was.

      First, I don't read and "tone" in Anon @ 4:55 am post...to me, they're stating a fact nothing more. Also, if you've been a regular on this site, you would know how people "feel" about Mr. Douglas and his "predictions."

      And, if you are a regular, my I recommend that you use a screen name so we can separate you from the general Anonymous posters. I'm not saying you're one of them but you know that there are Anonymous "trolls" that post on here and like to stir the sh$%. Don't get lump in with them.

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    3. I'll grant you that.
      I will.

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    4. Bill, if you allow personal attacks you should also allow someone to respond.
      if you deleted my response you then also delete the personal attack otherwise you are being unfair and unbalanced.
      As a regular follower of this blog I expect you to treat me fairly, and you are not.
      You are using double standards.

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    5. Yours was far more inflammatory and personal. But I've gone ahead and deleted the marginally personal comment as well.

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  93. Some 20 hours later and its still snowing in the metro, this is one hell of a long duration snowstorm. Cant recall the last time it snowed twenty hours straight without precip issues or dry slots or dry tongues! Pretty sweet!

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  94. MSP...Minneapolis International Airport...9.2" officially!
    Largest snowfall of the 2015-2016 winter season and busted every forecast on TV, social media and NWS. Much more has fallen in and around the airport as well. Correct range on this one would have been 8-12", but hindsight is 20/20.

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    1. Not sure why you say NWS busted... the last probability based prediction before the snow started said to expect at least 5, probably 8 and as much as 13. I'd say they hit it pretty good.

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  95. Just measured and it at 12.25 inches with some settling already occurring. So guessing we were upwards of 13 inches or so here in central Bloomington (Xerxes and 98th area). Area is protected from the wind.

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  96. Golden Valley......11".....measured five spots and toke a average!....Nice storm!!

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  97. It sure feels good to have been wrong in my pessimism. Love it when a storm over-performs in the core metro.

    The last storm I remember that did this, where it just kept squeezing out more and more precip, was March 1999. That was an awesome storm. This feels very similar, although that one gave St. Paul 17" of snow.

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  98. Anybody seen the 'No snow Trolls'? ;-)

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    1. Yeah, where's the person/people who just KNEW a major SE shift was eventually coming for days and we were all hyping a storm that would miss us? Or as they said, "the writing is on the wall."

      12" IMBY, and I was going to be pleased with just 6-8".

      Props to the GFS that had the SLP track between LOT and MKE for days on end and hardly wobbled while almost every other model did.

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  99. I thoroughly enjoyed reading the comments on this page for the past week - thank you everyone for sharing your weather knowledge! Now lets hope for some more snow to come soon :).

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  100. Yes I will eat my crow and shovel my snow. But please don't tell me that a single person here knew Minneapolis would get a foot plus of snow. The writing on the wall changed many times I guess.

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  101. Definitely a fun storm to track and then ultimately experience right over our heads. Overall, models did a decent job of the initial signal over a week ago and then each day they would waffle (but not a lot) back and forth which is very normal. Before the GFS, NAM, ECWMF, UKMET, GEM, etc., there was the AVN, NAM, Baroclinic, ETA, etc. -- they all did the same. The common factor in all the forecasting over the years --- analysis of actual data, i.e. surface observations, upper air maps, soundings, satellite and radar and using climatology and analogs and experience. Models are guidance not the forecast and that gets forgotten nowadays.

    12.5" in my snow measuring spot in Rosemount this AM. A fabulous storm with near-perfect snow: liquid ratios, some intense 1-2"/hour rates, wind and the fact it was done for the most part by Midnight allow snow removal crews to get the roads in drivable fashion by this AM. Live in Atlanta or DC or other places and you get an immediate perspective and appreciation for how well Minnesota handles winter events. Now onto the the next winter 'event'. A few shots of light snow starting tomorrow through Sunday. Sunday looks like the fun one in Clipper form with light snow, potentially big winds and some Arctic air to freshen up the atmosphere!

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    1. Must defend DC. When you consider that it snows much less (some winters nearly none), the snow is much wetter/icier, the rate of snow is typically heavier there, it's much hillier, there are far more drivers, there are a fraction of the number of snow plows, less experienced drivers, etc... well Minnesota ought to do a much better job with it. :-) (And I'll also say that DC handles the heat much better than Minnesota.) Sorry... my town. :-)

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  102. On the heels of our Groundhog day storm, dont look now but NWS has two clippers affecting our area each capable of dropping 1-2" today and Friday with an even healthier system for Sunday according to the NWS that may produce 2-4" with an outside shot of 6". This could be shaping up to be the snowiest week of winter! As they say in the weather business stay tuned, time will tell!
    Could need another thread Bill(since were approaching 200 again).
    Oh almost forgot Paul Douglas's blog hinted at another major snowstorm a week from today, is that fantasy land or is it possible??
    PWL get your bring it dancing shoes on again!!

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    1. bigdaddy....I have to say, I really like your posts! You say what I feel about snow and storms!

      It's just good to see a post that is purely enthusiastic about upcoming weather!

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  103. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 4, 2016 at 12:03 PM

    Huge snowstorm yesterday, more flakes today, more flakes on Friday, more flakes on Sunday/Monday......I am a good dancer, but I am not sure I can keep up this pace. But I will for the good of this blog and the good of the people--Dancing, dancing, dancing.

    Bring it!!!

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