Thursday, September 22, 2016

Looking Toward Fall

At last a new post to discuss fall into winter....

38 comments:

  1. So what's everyone's prediction on our first snow sighting?...(trace or better)

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  2. I'm gonna say Oct 25

    Gregg

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  3. Thanksgiving week.

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  4. No winter or snow till mid month November!

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  5. Novak whats your prediction for the winter of 16/17?

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    1. Novak?...where did he say that?

      It will be warm or cold
      with 0-100" that's my prediction

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    2. Slow start to Winter so far this NOV, but gut feeling is that this month will end with significant snow over much of ND/SD/MN. The DEC-FEB period will not be as warm as last winter & should feature near to above normal Snow.

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  6. I think we should place bets on the date that the first forecaster compares, however laughably unwarrantedly, a snowstorm to the Halloween blizzard. It happens every year! What will be the date this year?

    Place your bets!

    I for one am enjoying CDC's prediction of above-average temperatures until at least the second week in November. Bring it!

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  7. Haha, I always look forward to the first Halloween Blizzard comparison hype. Usually comes much earlier than one would expect. But regardless of the timing, it is sure to come. Wait for it... wait for it...

    I bet Nov. 22nd. But then the storm won't even materialize, and we'll get zero inches.

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  8. Tough forecasting lately. Perhaps because clouds, it hasn't gotten as warmed as we were promised.

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  9. Storm brewing for next week, Novak and Randy talking about it on twitter.

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  10. CPC says 60% chance of above-average temps thru 11/23.

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  11. 30's and snow possible next Saturday...?

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  12. Our first storm to watch this year and it is moving northwest with each model run. So far looks like no snow Fri-Sat but colder. Heck anything is colder than 50s and 60s in November. Bigger story is now did Bill end up in New Mexico?

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    1. Three words: cost of living.
      And this way, I'll be in a better position to monitor the low pressure systems that form here in the Southwest before jettisoning their way up to the tundra.

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  13. first video of the season upon us?

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    1. A winter storm scenario doesn't seem to be in the works for MSP, though?

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    2. Just seems we will have a chilly rain. Possibly a few wrap around flurries mixed with rain. Just hoping to see the first flakes of the season!

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    3. Don't count it out quite yet. Models are shifting a bit east with each run, so it still is worth watching. I don't know that it is going to be able to get far enough east for us to be in mostly snow, but we will have to wait and see.

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  14. Models started closer to MSP then shifted to Canada and now seem to hit NW MN. Still seems quite a ways off and looks too warm in the metro. Also waiting for the first mention of dry tongue this year! Good to see the gang returning. Where is Randy?

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  15. Hope Novak posts soon. He seems more optimistic about this on Facebook but not fully committed yet - still 4 days out. Euro shows an impressive low pressure sitting on top of the Twin Cities later Friday. Our first video of the year?

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  16. Hey guys...good to see the Usual Suspects in here posting about the first "potential" winter storm of the year! Looking forward to an active winter!

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  17. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 15, 2016 at 12:49 PM

    Here we go.......I was going to wait until Novak released his first of the snow season impact map, but I can't wait any longer. This storm has too much potential to dump a heavy amount somewhere in my backyard or awfully close by. I can't stand it--I am dancing, using the bathroom more often, and watching every strand of weather data I can find. And I say......BRING IT!!!!

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    1. OK, who had November 15th in the "First PWL Bring It of the Season" Pool?! Wouldn't be a MN snow storm without a good BRING IT!!!!

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  18. At this point models point to around noon inch possible that falls, likely not much staying, in the immediate metro. Looks a bit more possible in the north suburbs. Highly doubt this dumps on anyone near the cities. I, personally, am just excited to see the first few flakes fly.

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  19. Hi you all!....I see the winter weather freaks have returned. Did you get all your outdoor chores completed?...because Mother Nature gave us an extended nice fall weather to get it done. I even hung my Christmas lights this past weekend(I never was that early)....well they always say in Minnesota the other shoe is ready to drop...hopefully it's Friday with snowfall...if not at least the temps will feel like winter.

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  20. Patiently waiting for the main energy to come ashore tomorrow. Model consensus is solid up to this point. BIG snows for a good chunk of MN likely. No doubt SW/NE band.

    700mb (mid level) frontogenesis sets-up over the Lakes country late THUR eve/early AM FRI dropping several inches of snow. Then, main jet energy rounds the base & surges NE Friday into WI. This produces a deformation zone/trowal dangerously close to the MSP metro.

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    1. Where have I heard this before? Good god, does nothing ever change with these storms?

      Not a knock on your forecast Novak, just bemoaning the reality of living in Mpls.

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    2. I know Joel...I know...so frustrating...hoping at least one snowstorm this winter just dumps feet of snow on MSP...without the mention of dry tongues/dry slot/sharp cutoff/rain-snow line!

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  21. NWS forecast discussion is a good read today. They are sticking with this staying west of the metro and talk about the GFS vs euro for when the intensification will occur. Now west of the metro is only around 60 miles, so it wouldn't take much. But the GFS shows a sharp cutoff of the snow, so boom or bust looks high. Reminds me of storms from last year.

    Great to see all of you return. We'll have to post our predictions Thursday and maybe Bill will give us our first winter thread!

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  22. Novak and NWS has MSP on the outside looking in, AGAIN, so on to the next storm. Any thoughts on when that will be?around Thanksgiving?

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    1. Four weeks to the day after this one. It will be big.

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    2. Well Joel then I hope you don't get bored waiting those four weeks. This one is an non-issue for MSP.

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  23. Timmy, this isn't the Minneapolis Metro Forecaster page it's the Minnesota Forecaster and this storm is going to nail Minnesota.

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  24. Looks like this sets up north with a tight gradient..... Still time though, any southward shift could make this a whole lot more interesting.

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