Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Meanwhile, Dave Dahl in last night's graphic has the snow over MSP. Good to see some things never change.
No it isn't.
So when is a real snowstorm coming to MSP? People can say this is a Minnesota Forecaster blog but actually how many people on here are from greater Minnesota, I would say it's a 85/15% split and that's being generous. Well on to the next one, whenever that is, at least it's still November and we will have plenty more opportunities..hopefully this miss isn't a harbinger of things to come this winter with near misses!
Really impressive how the GFS has stayed consistent on this. Based on the Euro whiffing on a few storms last year, hard not to stay with the GFS which means not much for most of the metro. With 40s back next week, the weird November will continue. Central and western MN are a different story, those totals look impressive.
GFS is pushing the snow band further south with every run... Wouldn't be surprised to see the NW metro pickup 3-5 inches of snow. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
This seems to happen regularly. The models shift about a day out, but the storm goes where previously modeled.
Yeah I've noticed that in the past... I just have a feeling this system wont intensify as much nor as fast as models are predicting it to... Which would mean a more south-east track.
Models really want to shove the low a bit further south. Path a bit more NE than NNE through the region...
I love when "the shift if on". Reminds me of a song...... C'mon, baby. Shift happens! BRING IT!!
If or if not MSP gets any accumulating snow there is always next week. 2 weak systems move through the area which as of right now seem to have MSP on the cold side of things.
The NAM and GFS only differ by a little bit in their placement, but because of the nature of this storm those can end up with big differences. Really fun storm to track!
NWS is still talking about how fast moving the storm is. The Euro seems to have picked up the speed also. NWS says snow will be out of here Friday night. So I'm going with the earlier GFS and the typical pessimistic metro snow. 2" NE metro and maybe .5" SE. That may even melt due to warm ground temps. Novak seemed to be more optimistic earlier today and he has 100x the talent I do with this. Curious to see his final prediction.
Err, NW Metro.
Dave Dahl has brought the 3-5" line into the NW metro, encompassing the west side 694/494 split.Thoughts?...that's the highest I've seen so far!
Bigdady, the core of the metro was never in play, very busy here with not much free time. I have always thought that 3-5 was possible in the far nw metro. I'm talking the Ramsey area.
Not much happening with this yet. Stuff seems to be going away...
thunderstorms around the Mankato area.
Looks like rain so far from Saint Cloud on south so far... but lots of moisture that is for sure
I just had to dodge the HAIL as I pulled into the office ramp this morning! LOTS of energy with this system.
Hail in St. Louis Park at 8:45, pea size accompanied by an absolute downpour. Great walk into the office.
Looks like snow slowly leaving the picture; too warm. Typical.
I can't imagine that the core metro will receive in excess of 2" of snow, especially considering the ground & air temps this PM. It will snow hard over parts of the metro between 2pm - 5pm & rush hour traffic will be challenging, but it is an uphill climb for accumulations.My thoughts stay the same:- Highest accumulations on the NW side (Wright & no. Anoka) 2"-4"+ there.- Core metro Coating to 2"- Dakota County coating to 1".Much of this snow will melt on contact & slush will be the rule on the streets until a hard freeze occurs after midnight.
Lots of ice falling in NW Maple Grove for the past 10 minutes and it is coming down hard.
Snowing in Eden Prairie as of about 10 minutes ago.
Any input on Tuesday's potential snow event for MSP?
Yup...Sharp gradientRain-snow lineWarm ground Dry tonguePick one, I'm sure one or more will influence the weather and keep snow totals down!
Another storm on the horizon Tuesday into Wednesday. Thoughts?
Yes read my thoughts above. Will hinder our snow amounts again and annoy many snow lovers.
At this point looking like a sharp gradient over MSP thanks to the Rain-snow line. Wonderful!
Is this going to be a winter of the haves and have nots? The next system on Tuesday, according to the NWS, is going to be another snowmaker for western and northern MN, while here in the metro we get rain or perhaps a mix...Uugghh
Snow doesn't like MSP!
Tuesday and Wednesday look interesting, however 8 to 10 days out on the gfs and euro look amazing, and to some extent the GEM as wellm
Tuesday's system for MSP looks like 3-6 inches is possible more north west less south east. But this system about 10 days out looks very impressive! Wouldn't be surprised if it dumped 12+ inches on the north west side of the system.
Wow I am surprised at how quiet it is here considering we have another event due to begun tonight. I'd love to hear what you all think.
Rain/snow line near MSP, bust potential high! Lucky if MSP gets 1-2"
I agree, Gerry. It looks like another non-event for the metro. I hope the predictions for a cold, snowy winter come to fruition. Time will tell...
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Huge flakes in Maplewood right now.
Here is what I love about the last storm (the one that dumped lots of snow on western and southern MN): the models all came together and, as a result, most forecasters nailed it. It is also what I hate about that last storm--it didn't have that last-minute shift that we all either enjoy or hate. Either way, it makes forecasting interesting and fun to see the energy in the feelings of people. Unlike the election polls accuracy, the models on that storm need to be applauded (just like we almost always applaud the work of Novak). Just my two cents. Now....moving ahead to looking at the storm for late Sunday into early next week--that one makes me want to say Bring It. I know that the NWS Discussion mentions us being on the warm side, but we are 5-6 days out and lots can change. What I love about what was said in the discussion is that this storm has a "potential to overachieve." LOVE THAT! BRING IT to any overachieving storms!! I hope this is the motto all winter long!
PWL this winters trend is already showing it's face with last weeks storm and today's storm and Sunday's storm, either near misses or slop storms with a few inches because we are just warm enough. Decent all snow events will be hard pressed to come by MSP this winter
I just watched the evening weather on Kare 11. They have several days next week well into the 40's. Is there any validity to that? They always seem to forecast temperatures at least 5 degrees higher than what others, including the NWS, predict. Does Kare use the "warm" computer model all of the time?
No. It's their philosophy. The take the output and make it warmer.There is some analysis on model verification on the NWS page. Models (especially the GFS) tend to bias colder most times. So there is some logic in what Kare does.
Underachieving snow-wise. I'm in South Mpls and got about an inch+. It's still 34 degrees in the morning!
It didn't really underachieve the snow just kept on compacting into about an inch of snow.
True. I guess that raises the question as to how forecasters should forecast snow totals. I do see disclaimers sometimes by some outlets that say, "Compacting and melting will limit totals." To get to the full 3-4 inches I suppose those who do official measurements have to take them every hour as opposed to just at the end of the storm. Otherwise, numbers in storms like these are really inflated, and, in fact, have the appearance of busting.
The issue is getting the snow/liquid ratio correct.That affects how much snow falls in the first place, how fast it accumulates, and how much it compacts.These ratios are so volatile that can dramatically change from one location to another given the impression of a totally different 'snow' outcome.
Where is the cold air? The long range forecast doesn't show any signs of December cold...30's and 40's isn't going to cut it for those of us that enjoy winter.
Sadly, we might get El Nino'ed even in a non-El Nino "winter".
But it's great news for those of who hate winter!
If you hate winter so much, then move down south.
Public Information StatementNational Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN136 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016...Preliminary Snowfall Reports from Nov 22nd to Nov 23rd...Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon North Branch 1 NNW 6.0 in 0600 AM 11/23 45.53N/92.97W Cambridge 3N 5.8 in 0730 AM 11/23 45.60N/93.23W Long Lake 4.5 in 0700 AM 11/23 44.98N/93.57W Rush City 3 NE 4.5 in 0700 AM 11/23 45.72N/92.93W Carver 1W 4.5 in 0700 AM 11/23 44.76N/93.64W Braham 1 ENE 4.3 in 0830 AM 11/23 45.72N/93.16W Victoria 2ENE 4.3 in 0800 AM 11/23 44.89N/93.61W Chanhassen (NWS) 4.2 in 0600 AM 11/23 44.85N/93.56W Stillwater 2 SW 3.8 in 0600 AM 11/23 45.03N/92.84W 1 NNE Anoka 3.3 in 1100 AM 11/23 45.22N/93.38W Maple Plain 3.0 in 0700 AM 11/23 45.01N/93.66W Litchfield 3.0 in 0800 AM 11/23 45.13N/94.53W Elk River 3.0 in 0700 AM 11/23 45.30N/93.58W Anoka 1SE 2.8 in 0800 AM 11/23 45.19N/93.37W Waconia 2.8 in 0600 AM 11/23 44.85N/93.80W St. Paul (AG Exp Frm) 2.3 in 0800 AM 11/23 44.98N/93.18W
Check out SPC's three-day outlook. The entire state of MN is in the thunderstorm zone. In late November! Wow!
That is crazy. Novak said something about it also. Eventually we are going to pay for this warm weather.
Why? We didn't "pay" last year.
Fair comment. Just looking at longer models and some analysis, it really looks like this Winter is just delayed. Hope I'm wrong!
Hey friends/commenters/weather enthusiasts... I'm really thinking of moving this blog to a Facebook page. Any thoughts?
Don't please, I don't have or want a facebook page!
I vote against a Facebook page too, Bill.
But I don't like winter. WIth a facebook page, how will I anonymously poke fun at all the snow freaks? :)
Facebook would be great.
No facebook.....just my opinion....but I don't it.
Oklahoma State vs OklahomaBaylor vs West VirginiaAlabama vs FloridaAlabama vs FloridaClemson vs Virginia TechWisconsin vs Penn State
Vote yes for Facebook. Hello 21st Century.
I vote no for Facebook. Many "younger" users don't use Facebook and is limiting to only the people who use Facebook. This blog site (and any blog site) is public so we all can view it and share it. Please don't move. And thanks for all of your work, Bill, and for asking the question. You da man.
Funny, I would think younger users would bother with the blog part either. But what do I know.
This forum is clumbsy and outdated. Facebook is the way to go. Easy to follow threads and and add videos and pics also. Novak's videos embedded, etc. If you make a public page (which I assume it would be) then you DON"T need to have a FB account unless you want to contribute. (posting, images, videos, etc) Always takes care of the anonymous spam and posters!
Yes, it would be -- actually already is -- a public page. See if you're able to find it and like it.
Yes, facebook much easier to follow and update. Blogger is such 2006.
As a regular poster here I would vote against a Facebook move, I'm not on face book nor do I have desire to do so. Until I figure out how face book makes its money, I'm very leary about it. The smaller digital footprint I have the better imho.
However I would respect any decision that Bill makes.
Thanks, Randy. I really think Facebook would be easiest and allow for much easier posting of pictures and links, and I know you provide a lot of links. Ultimately, I think it can create a better experience. I understand your concerns about Facebook... I believe they make their money through ads that various people and companies post. It's not something I think about. Also, you can sign up with a fake name (maybe keeping Randy as your first name) so that your identity is safe. I'd love if you could at least give it a try and I'd be happy to walk you through it if that would help. As you know, you're a very valued contributor to the Minnesota Forecaster community.
Thanks so much for the acknowledgement, it is appreciated. Feel free to make the move, I just won't be following you there. Way to busy to provide much insight anyway, unless a major crippling event would be unfolding. In that case I can email you my thoughts to you and you could repost them. I don't have the time to learn how to use it anyway.
Randy, if you use blogger you can use facebook. Yer a smart man!
I use blogger to post here only, I have never used my Gmail account for any emails, not one. I have never posted a blog. It took me 11 months to figured out how to paste and copy on my first smart phone that I got last december.
Facebook makes money on ads, the same way pretty much all internet services make money. Not really a big mystery.I like to taunt the snow-lovers. Move it to facebook. It's one fewer web page I'll need to follow outside Facebook. I've been on Blogger since 2004, and that's about the level of tech we have here.Also, the weather today was really cool. Very scary skies all day, especially around 4.30pm. Angry, scary skies. Bring it!
I have no proof about what I am about to post. I highly doubt Facebook can be trading were it is with people clicking on the adds, I highly suspect w/o proof, that there might be some back door shenanigans going on, for some who got their SS# tampered with I Don't trust social media at all. In other words advertisers some how are getting browsing records of facebook users so they can target their on line marketing efforts to individual users.
This is the link for Minnesota Forecaster on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/The-Minnesota-Forecaster-172523749447937/
I'm on Facebook Bill but not sure I'll follow you there. I really like the blog and thread format. This blog has been a blast for the years I've followed and commented. I'll really miss the regulars here that don't follow on to Facebook like Randy and Plymouth Weather. Those are the guys that make this blog (other than you Bill). Looks like you made the decision to move from your twitter feed. Hope you are successful there and thanks for maintaining this over the years. I'll sure miss it.
Thanks, Dave. I really don't know how things will change with Facebook, particularly the blog and thread format you mention. The dues for my website come due the last week of December so I guess this will provide some time to see how the Facebook aspect works.You might want to follow on Facebook and see how your own experience goes. As for Randy, he wrote me and mentioned that he'll be hardpressed to have the time to study charts and provide his input... so that the change may not be the reason he's less involved. He did say he'd contribute when he thinks a major event is about to occur or if he thinks the models have it wrong. So, might be worth sticking around.So, we'll see. I appreciate your being part of the blog. You've helped make it what it is.
Well one thing you will lose with FB is anonymous professional mets who occasionally post here and wish to contribute out of public limelight. Good luck with the move Bill and thanks for the blog these years!
Does this happen? Guess I don't really know.
I too am not a "facebooker" as I am a private person. facebook is evil.I feel the move to FB will result in losing this forum all together ie: bigdaddy,PWL,randy, dave, all of which is our biggest contributors,have shared there comments not to move or will not follow.Ultimately, Bill, it's your decision.It's just so disappointing that I will no longer get the enjoyment of reading these blogs and all the discussions that go with them if the move is made.
Thanks for the feedback. We'll see... I have until near the end of December to re-up paying for the domain and whatever else. So so you know, you can always sign up with a fake name on Facebook... but I still get the evil part.
Hi Bill. My husband and I own a local web design company in Coon Rapids. We have a dedicated web server. We would be happy to provide hosting and domain registrar services for you at no charge. I am a bit of a weather enthusiast and lurk on this site often. If we can help keep the site up and running and save you the cost, we would be happy to do that.Let me know if you are interested and perhaps we can discuss your current arrangements and expenses and how we could provide our services.
Joy, that would be tremendous!! Could you email me offline at email@example.com so we can figure out details. Thanks!
Euro has some stuff out in fantasy land. Something to track at the least.
Is that what has weather.com punching out ridiculous snow total forecasts for the 7-9 day timeframe?
I did take a quick look at things for early next week. It seems that that the critical time period with the models will be Monday morning. At the 500mb level both the GFS and the Euro have a fairly strong ridge over us. The GFS drops a mid level low into Montana into the western edge of the ridge, than that mid level low lifts north into Canada dragging a surface low along with it across the international border, as that passes to the east it pulls down colder air and suppresses the main system south and east of us.The Euro on the other hand holds the western edge of the ridge on Monday morning and does not drop a mid level low into Montana, allowing the ridge to hold thus allowing the 500mb trough to dig slightly further south, allowing for a better phasing of the north and southern jet stream and putting the baroclinic further north and west than what the GFS depicts.It will be a few days before the Models iron out the basis, the GFS tends to break down ridges to quickly, but the Euro tends to hold back energy to long. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Wow. The thing disappeared on the latest GFS run. What the heck? Will be interesting to see if it returns.
Still haven't read a good reason why someone wouldn't be able to move to Facebook.If you want to still post but remain anonymous or use your moniker then create a anonymous facebook account with the same name you use here. 5 minutes done! Amazing how nervous people get when they are asked to change. The change happens and a month goes by and everyone looks back wondering what the big deal was in the first place. I don't see one benefit of Blogger over what is offered via Facebook public page.
Generally agree, but I wonder if the singularity of the individual threads that we do on here will get messy on Facebook....
Also there have been times I want to click on a link someone has provided but Blogger doesn't allow such a thing. Also times I've wanted to throw a little video up. Also times I wanted to post via my mobile device and it won't let me. Not user friendly. This interface/blog tool is so...so...fo 1995. No reason to stay with this.
Even more positives -1. Big one! Faster growth. I see a post that I like, I click share! Everyone following me/timeline sees it now! They Like your page. 2. Novak can just link to his post instead of having to write up something for both sites. Maybe more input from him.3. People can set the Follow of your page to See First. Instantly see the posts on top of their Timeline and also get notifications instantly. Now, if a new post is made by Bill I get the email reminder the next morning. Could be 6+ hours later before I even knew a new article/post was posted. (unless I'm constantly visiting the blogger page).4. Ability to save a post and easily come back to it later without digging.I'm done but see no positive reason to stick with this with facebook's benefits blow the one's offered here away.
Blogger has an RSS feed, gives you instant notification when a new thread is posted. If you are lucky, Facebook will tell you about activity on pages you like. Facebook determines what you see and when on your timeline.I use Facebook for personal stuff with friends. I use LinkedIn more for professional groups. Due to my job, I need to protect what I publicly say where. Really not interested in creating a second fake Facebook persona that I would login to just to see the Minnesota Forecaster. I run a charity that has a Facebook page. No doubt that works well on Facebook and I sure see why folks are attracted to it. Can't blame Bill for moving at all.The question is the audience you are looking for. Most of the great content I get is in blogs, LinkedIn groups and sometime even Reddit Rarely is it on Facebook, it just tends to be more social. This is Bill's creation and his call. I respect whatever he does with it. I just have a different way of how I use the various interactive areas of the Internet.
You can personalize Facebook to provide you notification from pages you "like" depending on when you want those notifications. You can also ask Facebook to "always" or "never" provide notifications for new posts in your feed.I support the Facebook move. I'd still participate.
That may be true, but I suspect that there are many people, myself included, that aren't savvy enough to know how to do that. Maybe we end up sort of dual sites for a time. Sigh... I dunno.... Time will tell.
Bill, you just go to your security and notifications (the settings wheel) and play around. I'm not savvy either, but it really is just about clicking on the notifcations tab and choosing the features you want.
This discussion is all well and good but maybe it should revert to a new thread as we have an interesting scenario for next week with models all over the place.Thanks Bill.
I second that and agree with Greg!.....let's get back to weather(hopefully snowy weather) shall we.
Yes! Really hope we get something to watch and discuss.
My goodness, the Euro is going bonkers. It has 5 lows at one point next week. O_o Going to be cool to see how the models deal with this extremely complicated forecast!
NWS is on record saying NO snowstorm next week! Maybe a few inches, but the colder air will suppress the storms and thus the heavy snow south and east of our area. How lovely cold without the snow is just so boring. Thus MSP gets the raw end of the deal again!
This is a real interesting one. Can't believe how the GFS is bouncing around over the last 24 hours. Novak posted a note about this tonight, seems he is questioning the GFS (and I love hearing the pros talk about their gut). Hope we get a fun weekend of model runs to talk about. It's been hard for me to bet against the GFS after last winter and the first storm this year.
The GFS is on crack right now. For instance, it shows a strong jet stream roaring across MO, IL on WED yet tries to develop snow in that area. That simply doesn't make sense. Usually, snow falls NW of the strong jet/jet streak. Meanwhile, it really surges this jet streak way too quickly to the east & it doesn't pump up the ridge at all over eastern US. It breaks it down much faster than any of the other models. Hell, if you look closely, the 00z GFS has already slowed down the speed of the upper air dynamics when compared to the 12z run. I would expect this trend to continue.I just don't believe that the GFS knows how to handle all the energy that will be surging onto the west coast next week.
No worries Novak, the GFS may not have an handle on the weather but the NWS does! They are calling for an "avoidance of any significant storm systems for our area". The cold is coming which will act to shunt systems to our south and east. Translation: below average snowfall for MSP will continue.
I don't doubt that the snow shield may get shoved SE of our region, I'm just not buying how far south the 00z GFS was developing the snow band; it didn't make sense when overlaying the upper level winds. Notice how the 12z run totally backed off the MO/IL snow band.I kinda like what the GFS is doing when it comes to speeding up the initial disturbance that comes out of the Rockies MON/TUE. This system may come at us in pieces. Once early in the week then another late in the week. This would make some sense since the trough seems to stay in place all week.Quite frankly, the GFS is all over the place. Need more consistency.
Either way you slice it, MSP is not invited to the snow party. Arctic cold with bare ground is the worst weather imaginable!
Exactly. Those who think there is going to be a significant storm for MSP next week are deluding themselves.Climate change has put MSP in a tough predicament for snow lovers. Whereas in the past the various Colorado Lows, Panhandle Hookers etc were brought into an environment that was still cold enough to support snow, this has not been the case anymore. The climate office at the UoM mentioned that mixed and/or rain only event in winter for the area have increased by 50% in the last 15 years or so.So for the cold to arrive it needs to be strong enough, and that also shunts the system to our south.When enough moisture makes this way, it is usually not cold enough (or marginally cold enough) to have precip type issues. It seems the only source of snow for MSP are really Alberta clippers but even those seem to have been more moisture starved than usual the past couple of winters.Bottom line: MSP was never in a good position for snowy winters to begin and recent climate changes have made its situation evne more precarious.If you love snow, move somewhere else. :(
I totally agree that we are experiencing many more Rain and/or mix scenarios during the winter here in MN/WI. However, I don't believe that = less snow. In fact, it can be argued that we will experience more snow that comes in piles when it does get cold. Precipitation has been averaging above normal during these CC winters.
We will have to see about that plays out in the future. For now the trend line of MSP average winter snowfall since record started is trending down not up.
Watching everyone hit the panic button is absolutely hilarious. Calm down people, chill out....
No panic at all.That big snows are becoming a rarer and rarer events for the MSp area is a fact. Some people like it, some don't.
Big snows have never been 'common' in MSP as far as I can tell.
It may never snow again in MSP. Ever.
I'll drink to that!
Anything is possible in theory, but recent winters don't bear out what Novak is suggesting MIGHT happen. I measure winters by whether I've needed to assemble my roof rake, and how many times we've taken our daughter sledding. The roof rake has been disassembled since the 2013/2014 winter. We went sledding once in 2014/2015 and did NOT go last year.Much more likely that simply "more snow because of such-and-such kinda faulty reasoning" is that we are going to wider swings in winter, as in all seasons.That is, we'll see winters like the last couple (warm. no snow) and we'll see more cold and snowy winters. 2010/2011 was a monster snow winter, I hated it. But the following was one of the warmest and driest on records.That kind of wild pattern is more likely under climate change. Also, let it be known that we are experience climate change right now; it's not some future event. The entire globe is experiencing it.
Sorry but 15 years doesn't come close to establishing a pattern. Look back and you will see this has occurred before. Heavy snow years are more the exception for MSP. We have a long way to go this year to see if we hit average snow.
What has occurred before? The top five warmest Novembers all occurring in the last 15 years? That's happened before? Two of the top five were this year and last year. That's happened before?
Wow. They said one inch. Woke up to 3-4. Rough forecast.
I awoke to a pleasant surprise here in Apple Valley too. One inch prediction...3-4 inches result! I love it! A great day to put up the Christmas tree. I haven't been feeling like it looked or felt like Christmastime yet. It's beautiful outside!
Yes nice 3" here in Golden Valley this morning...but soak it up Snow Meister will be all gone tomorrow and we will be left with arctic bare ground all week...unless that clipper hits us next weekend!
Bill, any chance we can get a new thread started?...Frustrating to thumb thru 123 posts to leave a comment. Maybe new thread should be the prospects of another brown Christmas since we are inside of three weeks and the maps show a lot of arctic air dominating and thus keeping snow chances low and to the south.
Thank you, that was quick!