Monday, December 12, 2016

A Repeat Performance on the Way?

There are strong signals that Friday/Saturday may offer a repeat performance in the snowstorm department. Here's our latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evGvYULt8Vk&feature=youtu.be

155 comments:

  1. Thanks as always, Novak and Bill.

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  2. Great video as usual. I complete whiffed on the last storm, I doubted the GFS and was shocked it hit the southern Metro the way it did. Great job by Novak.

    Looking at the GFS this time if it stays cold again for Friday/Sat the Kuchera snowfall totals are really impressive. Didn't hear Novak predict those types of totals yet but it sure will be fun to watch.

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  3. Glad you brought that up @Dave.....I was wondering what is the difference between the Kuchera snowfall totals and lets say the typical 10:1 or 12:1 ratio snowfall?

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  4. Early national numbers for Friday/Saturday storm:
    weather.com(weather channel) 4-8"
    wunderground 6-9"
    accuweather 6-10"
    these numbers are for MSP, lets see if they go up or down from here or stay the same!

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  5. Well the GFS has taken the heavy snow band south of the CWA to near the Iowa border, BUT now the EURO hammers the metro area with over a foot of snow. Place your bets which model will win out?
    NWS says winter storm watches should come out later today!!!

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  6. Dave Dahl on his morning radio spot said " at least as much snow as this past weekend if not more with some spots in southern MN easily a foot".

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  7. Looks like the heaviest snow band will setup dangerously close to MSP. But to play it safe I'd say Mankato to Rochester looks most likely. 12+ inches of fluffy snow looks promising with this storm where the heavy snow band sets up. Also something to note is some models are showing two waves of snow. First wave will develop and intensify Friday afternoon and will continue late into Friday night before weakening. Now what could potentially happen is that band will redevelop early Saturday morning further to the south-east. Now where this band redevelops is key, if it overlaps where the first band sets up I wouldn't be surprised to see totals near 18 inches. Regardless a very impressive storm none the less!

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  8. NAM is now on board with the heavy snow in Southern MN

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  9. Another non-event for MSP, how nice!

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    1. What are you reading? GFS, Euro, NAM, and even the Canadian model all put out 6+ inches of snow for MSP.

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    2. Yes exactly, which world do you live in?

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    3. Euro gives 2 maybe 3 inches and GFS is trending south... NAM is out of range and Canadian is unreliable.

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    4. 18z Gfs is 8-10 inches.

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    5. GFS has trended a little south but its not enough that it will really affect totals that much for MSP.

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    6. It will. Give it some time. Arctic air will kill this for us.

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    7. Filtered Cold Air 2: Model Boogaloo?

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  10. This is an awesome looking storm if you love SNOW. The dendrite growth column on FRI evening stretches from basically the surface all the way up to 600mb. Unusually thick column! Flakes should have no problem growing in this ripe environment. Meanwhile, upper level support/divergence sits over us for a solid 12+ hours!

    Somebody in so. MN and/or WI is going to be measuring 12"+ out of this baby.

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  11. "What do you want me to do about it?"

    -- Jack Torrance

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  12. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 13, 2016 at 6:56 PM

    I am truly about to wet my pants!! Each model that I look at makes me wants to dance and dance--which helps me to dry out my pants!!

    BRING IT!!!

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  13. Curious about the start time for this thing Friday. Too early to call now but could really be a travel mess with the cold air behind it. Waiting now for the NAM 4K to lock onto it. Things have really turned around from our mild fall.

    Notice I'm not making any predictions after my epic fail on the last storm! Also worried about @Plymouth soiling himself. :)

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  14. For those of you that see the euro snowfall on social media that has been reposted, it's normally the weather bell map. If you watch Novak's weather vids,look closely when he shows the euro model, it assumes a 10:1 ratio of snow vs liquid precipitation, in other words 1" of liquid would equal 10"of snow. However the ratios with this system seem to be between 15 and 20 to one. So add at least 50% more to the snow totals, if not doubling it.

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    1. Good point Randy! I should've clarified that & not overlooked it.

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  15. I think I will wait until after sampling has occurred to actually get excited. It has been very poorly sampled thus far. Things could sway either way once sampling takes place

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  16. GAME ON!!! Winter Storm Watches are up area wide for 6+"...as a fellow snowlover once(or few hundred)times has said...BRING IT!!

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    1. @bigdaddy, it's only a watch that can easily go to an advisory, storm is tracking too far south bringing the bullseye/heavy bands far southern MN into Iowa. Twin Cities metro will be on the nuisance side of things, let's say in the 1-4" range.

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  17. Where you getting your info sam...the weather service still has the metro in a 6-10 category and goodhue county area in 10-12...

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    1. Likely just trying to stir the pot. You are correct in your thinking. All models point to a sizeable event at this point.

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  18. No idea where you are getting your info Sam. A fake news site maybe? Looking at the latest GFS Kuchera output it shows around 8-10 inches including the metro. NAM maybe even slightly higher 10-12. Even if thats too high it's no where around 1-4.

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  19. Storm seems to be tracking slowly to the south. The 12z runs lower the amount even more. And too much confidence too much in advance usually ends in disaster in terms of forecast.
    I do believe MSP will see snow but much less than being anticipated. I agree with @Sam. The watch will most likely resolved into an advisory. The arctic front will be pushing this too far to the south.

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    1. Where do you get your info?

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  20. This is why I paid for the Facebook site over this because people can make stupid comments without putting their name next to it...

    Gregg

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    1. favor the facebook site**

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    2. @ Gregg, instead of insulting people why don't you make a prediction and then we'll see who's right eh?
      Disparaging people without taking a position is far too easy.

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    4. I didnt know that was insulting and disparaging people...its called calling people on their b.s... when all weather forecasters are calling for a significang snowfall why does someone have to act like they have better maps and see it going to the south when clearly it isn't...

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  21. Isn't this sounding a bit familiar? 2-3 days before the storm, and it scoots south a little? Didn't the storm bump back north again by the time it hit? Let's not hit the Bust Button on this storm quite yet. I'm still dancin' with PWL!

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    1. Yep, almost every storm. It's insane the amount of people that get worked up over model wobbles 2-4 days out, when that is to be expected. The last storm did it, too, did people already forget?

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  22. If somebody's opinion is that this storm will track much further south, they should be entitled to that opinion even if they don't have much data to back that up. Truth is, this storm does appear to take a much further southern track that would usually = less snow for MN.

    However, if you look at the mid-levels, model guidance clearly attempts to develop a 850mb/700mb low in northern IA & tracks that east into northern IL. If this indeed verifies, then the surface low tracking from MO to so. IL is basically a moot point.

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  23. Another video for y'all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6s_9ePTn0M

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    1. Good video! It's so cool to see so much model agreement. It's going to be really fun to watch the storm totals roll in.

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  24. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 14, 2016 at 6:18 PM

    Love the video!! And I love how much land area will receive snow. I am surprised the NWS has been a little conservative on the amounts given that they talked about high snow ratios in their discussion. They "only" have about 4-8 for Plymouth. The 9-12 that Novak is predicting is quite different. I say Bring It to a foot!!!

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  25. NWS point forecasts showing 6-10 for central metro south and maybe a little more just south of the metro. Appears they are moving toward the numbers Novak posted. If this storm hits as predicted, I am amazed at how well the modela have performed the last week for this.

    Anxious to see the NAM 4K in the morning as this thing hits land.

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  26. NWS calls for 6-10" in the Winter Storm Warning issued last night!

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  27. Basically in a holding pattern right now until full sampling takes place. A few people have noted this cyclone is wrapping in some Pacific moisture. Excited to see this as we go forward.

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  28. NWS just posted a graphic with 8-11 for most of the metro. NAM 4K seems to indicate less close to the metro and has been that way all day/. GFS hasn't really changed. Wondering what Novak's final call will be?

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  29. HopWRF shows 10-16 for the entire metro, north to south, higher total south!

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  30. what I can't believe is how QUITE this thread is...really? with the potential of our largest snow event in quite some time, I would have thought we'd have 100+ posts/replies already.

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  31. It's quiet...too quiet.

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  32. The models have been so good so far out.

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  33. The other story is the brutal cold behind this thing. Roads could be terrible for a few days Appears all the models have aligned for the most part. Saw that Novak is staying with his numbers. His map shows 8-12 for most of the metro.

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  34. Going big or go home. 9-14" for the metro more south. Going with 14-18 in a band from Mankato to just north of Rochester. If there is a error involved, it may be that I'm to low on the high side for the south metro.

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  35. Long time reader, wanna give an overdue thanks to Bill, randyinchamplin, bigdaddy, novak, and all the other frequent users of the MN Forecaster. Love coming here and learning/watching along during snowstorms.

    I'm going to officially predict 14 inches for here in Red Wing. Just pulled into town as the snow started. This one has the feel of an overachiever to me, forecasted totals-wise that is. Time will tell...

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    1. Thanks, Marcus! Appreciate the kind words. Enjoy the snow!

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  36. How come the official forecasters predictions and final grades are no longer consolidated? Was fun to see the grades post storm.

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    1. It was too much work... and not very scientific. Made for good conversation, I suppose.

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  37. Bust on the horizon??
    Weather.com has lowered the snowfall to 2-6" metro wide!!

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    1. NWS and the models say otherwise

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    2. I think I'll trust people like Novak, Randy, and the NWS over TWC's computer generated forecast. TWC has 4-8 for me in the south metro, and my back will surely be pleased if that's all we get!

      My guess is 6-8 North Metro, 8-10 MSP, 10-12 South Metro. So basically the consensus, but models have been consistent so I think that's why everybody's pretty confident and in general agreement.

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  38. weather.com. People really use that site? Hilarious!

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  39. I quickly pulled the following this am from NWS and news websites:

    NWS Weather Story: 8-10” metro and south; 6-8” anoka county and north

    KSTP: range from 6"-10" for the metro with some areas who see the heavier bands pushing a foot

    KMSP: tapers off Saturday morning -6-10” with current track/trend

    WCCO: totals could reach up to 10 inches, as it won't stop until Saturday morning.

    KARE: totals by early Saturday will be about 6" to 9" in the Twin Cities & through much of southern Minnesota. Some spots could pick up 10" in the southern third or so of the state.

    Paul Douglas: expect 5-10 inches of powder, maybe a foot south of the downtowns.

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  40. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 16, 2016 at 9:09 AM

    Here is my prediction:

    Plymouth--10.4 inches

    Bam.

    Bring it!

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  41. NWS has lowered estimates to the 6-8 range for most of the metro on their graphic. I also noticed Weather.com is really low compared to other outlets.

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    1. NWS did update the graphic jsut know but it says "We've already had 1-2 inches of snow this morning. Another 6 to 8 inches is expected to fall the rest of today through Saturday morning across much of the area (yellow)" So in total that is 7-10" which is only slightly different from 8-10" from earlier thsi am.

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    2. We didn't have anywhere near an inch at my house and I'm 10 miles from NWS.

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    3. Track is not an issue, and QPF is also not an issue.
      Uncertainty revolves around the snow ratio.
      if it can sustain in the region of 1:15 for most of the storm then the highest total will come true.
      If not it will be close to 5-6.
      MSP (which is usually the unluckiest of all places for snow lovers) will get the lowest low ratios as usual.
      Hopefully I am wrong.

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    4. We get lucky once per season. Maybe this is it. Maybe not.

      Remember how lucky we got with the over-achieving Groundhog Day storm last year?

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    5. Ahhh you hit a sore point:)
      I was out for business exactly that week :(

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  42. What would be interesting to know is if Novak, Randy, and others on this board, who have given their predictions, factored in the overnight snowfall in their totals. I didn't think what little we got was associated with the main system and it doesn't seem right that NWS and Local Mets are including it in their forecast totals. All along, everyone has been saying the "event" doesn't begin until this afternoon.

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    1. I believe that Dr. Novak *was* counting last night into this totals. But I could be wrong.

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    2. In the videos, Novak said he expected and he suggested 2-3" south. I sure understood that he had included it in the overall totals.

      I think it should be included and all the discussions included snow overnight into am commute and then heavy snow starts at noon or so today. I heard it on the local news and all our online weather geniuses stated it too.

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  43. The NWS mentioned a few times in the past few days that the system would come in 2 waves, and in the end, as far as I am concerned, it's the total that matters.
    NWS just tweeted it was not a downgrade, just not including the 1-2 that fell (or here in Woodbury still falling and accumulating). Since the NWS does forecast, it does not make sense for them to forecast what has already fallen. They are focused on the future.
    But my understanding is that this morning's snow was always part of the total.

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  44. How long before this band of snow fills in?
    It looks like the SE Metro will be set up for higher totals due to this morning's snowfall.

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    1. The band should fill in over the next 1 to 3 hours.

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  45. Weather.com just lowered totals even more. Considering they originally said it would be snowing here by late morning and they are now thinking 2-3 pm, maybe that prediction isn't too far off.

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  46. No need to panic just yet. Atmospheric set-up hasn't changed & snow is quickly increasing in coverage over so. MN. Plus, there is a healthy & wide area of snow over SD.

    It is not good practice to simply look at model QPF & consider that the Bible. QPF often fluctuates from model run to run. You will pull your hair out if you pay too much attention solely to QPF.

    Now, if MPX radar doesn't fill in by 3pm, then it is time for some concern. Regardless, we should experience 1/2" to 1"/hour snow from 3pm to midnight. That is 9 hours worth of significant snow = 5" to 8". The wildcard is if we get a final surge of snow Saturday AM. That would increase our 6"-10" expected totals.

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    1. Snow band is filling in and intensifying rapidly over south-west MN moving north-east. My bet is MSP will pickup 7-8 inches and Rochester 9 inches.

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  47. FYI, I'm planning to do another video with Tom at 3. If anyone has questions they'd like addressed, feel free to toss them out.

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    1. Live on Facebook?

      My question only concerns the future? After this storm will December calm down!? less active?

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  48. Are there people who panic when we don't get snow?

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  49. Is dry air coming into the storm thus cutting down snow totals some are alluding to?

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    1. No not really; storm is progressing as advertised.

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  50. Just starting to snow in Champlin.

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  51. Gut feeling says this badly underperforms based on current trends.

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  52. What current trends? The panic thread trends?

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    1. All high res models are trending down. Most struggle to get 6 into the metro

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    2. Big bust alert guys.
      This one can be one for the ages.
      As I pointed out a few days ago, too much confidence too much in advance usually leads to disaster.
      Let's see...

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  53. Storm is on pace but what I find interesting is how most storms usually have this "Dry slot" over MSP. Thank you urban heat island!...

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  54. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 16, 2016 at 2:34 PM

    I need to dance harder and more intensely! C'mon...... BRING IT!

    Question: Does Novak stick to his posted amount total map that he last posted last night/this morning on Twitter with 8-12 for the metro? I certainly hope so, but I want to hear if directly from him--he da man!

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  55. Still no snow at MSP. Only a dusting this morning. Hmmm...

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  56. Anonymouses... please try to sign on with some sort of identification. This is a primary reason I want to move to Facebook.

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  57. Slightest of flurries just starting to fall in a Carver County. Schools all let out early as a precaution based on forecasts but actual radar returns all morning suggested that was unnecessary. The kids were excited nonetheless! Right now I think last week's 8-inch advisory storm will come out easily ahead of this one totals-wise, but I know the concern is more about the winds and temperatures causing havoc on the roads, thus the warnings.

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  58. Between Bloomington and Albert Lea will be the big winners here. Look at the intense shield of snow building over them. Just look at it! LOL

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  59. THE NWS has updated their long term discussion, but not the short term one yet.
    This is atypical for them and shows that obviously the forecast must have gotten a bit more complicated....
    Downgrade to an advisory possibly?
    Maybe I am reading too much into it, but it is really interesting to me.

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  60. When does Novak think the snow will stop here in the Twin Cities. Will it possibly last a little longer than expected since we got a little bit of a late start?

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    1. It will still end at the same time, it just took longer for it to develop over MSP because of the dry air it had to overcome.

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  61. Really got some snow cranking down south! Hopefully it can make its way over us in the north metro.

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  62. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 16, 2016 at 2:59 PM

    The dry air thing is weird to me as I thought this morning's snow (overnight) would have saturated the column/environment thus decreasing this need to overcome the dry air. I guess I was wrong?

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    1. Yeah... That urban island effect aint playing nice today..

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  63. Snowing pretty hard in Woodbury.

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    1. From Woodbury as wellDecember 16, 2016 at 3:14 PM

      Yes confirmed.
      Although it looks heavier (=less powdery) than last week's. Wonder if the the snow ratio will be lower than forecast, resulting in slightly lower amounts.

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  64. Here's the latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjbNIG8SojM

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  66. It doesn't appear that this will be the time the odds are in our favor.

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  67. The dry air on radar south of the Twin Cities is concerning. Really weird to have that occurring there. Definite red flag.

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  68. As it appears this one is not going to behave as anticipated, it sort of reinforces my non-scientific belief that our biggest snowstorms are usually somewhat of a surprise, that forecasts for large amounts of snow rarely verify.

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  69. Totally agree with it.
    This one had all the signs of a big bust. Too much confidence, too far in advance, no mentions of dry air etc etc.

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  70. After all of the confidence and hype this past week, I sure hope this doesn't turn out to be the bust that one can argue appears to be taking shape....

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  71. WOW! The dry air slot is really expanding. Snow will be done in an hour or so.
    WSW should be downgraded to an advisory soon.
    Big bust.

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  72. Personally I felt this storm was a bust from the beginning. If any storm has a large snow shield and isn't on the east coast its a bust. There simply isn't enough moisture to keep it going.

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  73. No disrespect intended but it's s good thing all the early "bust" people on here are not my local weatherperson on the air. We often get lulls in storm intensity...radar filling in nicely again.

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  74. anonymous@5:18 its been an hour and still smowing. Forecasting is hard, isnt it ;-)

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  75. Novak tweeted a short time ago that due to the dry air south of the metro he may have to start dropping snow totals.

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  76. Channel 5 JY still saying 6-10 inches metro.

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  77. I don't know, I suspect Weather.com is going to win this one. They must have seen something that suggested these dry slots when nobody else expected it.

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    1. Or their dart happened to hit a lower number. Other darts landed on higher numbers.

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  78. Novak not feeling so "locked" anymore, confidence was way too high on this one, should have known arctic air not always your friend!

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  79. Already 2.1" at MSP Airport and still snowing hard.

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  80. NWS still says storm is on track for MSP. 6-8. The gap is only effecting Mankato to Owatonna with lower accumulations. Others on here agree?

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  81. Radar looking SWEET right now. Dry "hole" stayed south of metro. It's looking promising but being cautiously optimistic...

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  82. 9:09PM. 3 inches in south minneapolis (including the half inch that fell this morning). Steady snow, but very small flakes.

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    1. Just a follow-up here: It's 10:36PM and I have just under 4 inches. That's less than an inch in 2.5 hours. Not coming down very heavily. At all. It better pick up if we are to get to 6 inches. Even then, that's underperforming.

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  83. 3" (multiple locations) to 5" (Prior Lake) now in metro. Still snowing. Where are the "busters?"

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  84. HI, the busters are right here! This storm is under performing for the MSP cwa area, yes there will be pockets of higher snowfall but this snowstorm not performing like a LOCK where 6+ was forecasted over a broad area for the entire CWA(county warned area). I love Novak and his passion and knowledge for weather but NO snowsotm is a slam dunk days in advance. But hey white Christmas for all so lets be happy with that.

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  85. Not sure we are done with this yet, there appears to be a midlevel low forming over north central NE per inferred satellite. Could see another 3-5 by the end tomorrow around noon

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  86. Having said that it looks like a bust for almost all forecasters. Model agreement was extremely good. Forecast soundings looked like a lock for a major winter storm, a deep DGZ, some over running warm air that could cause lift.

    Upper Air patterns...check great divergence aloft, the models correctly depicting a mid level low over or near the Sioux Falls area. Very favorable liquid to snow ratios of around 17 or even 20" to 1 with a very saturated column. The atmosphere was primed, so what happened?.

    Tough to say. However when I was looking at the forecast soundings over the Metro, I noticed that there was a veer back veer wind profile in the lower 2km of the column. That wind field even though it was weak was likely to bring a dry slot into southern MN on easterly south eastern winds. That veer back veer pattern has been well known to bust severer storms watches.

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    1. Interesting Randy. When did you notice those forecast soundings? Is that something that could have been detected beforehand (though maybe still discounted because it was so weak)?

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  87. 10" in Jackson...that's at the top range many foretasted for southern MN. Several 5" reports in metro. Looks to me like anyone who said 5" to 10" as a range across southern MN came out looking pretty good on this one. Not exactly bust material.

    If anyone was too high it was NWS with maps of 8" to 11" for south metro.

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  88. Well, this was certainly a dud for most areas. I remember a time we used to get hyped up over a 12" snowfall, now when 4 or 5 inches falls, the world itself is ending!

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  89. It appears that 4"-8" of snow will be common across so. MN/WI. Of course, some rogue higher amounts, especially in sw MN. All in all, this storm underperformed & it has a lot to do with DRY air & lack of mid-level forcing that plagued many of us.

    It is hard to explain why this occurred because I'm still a bit perplexed. However, it appears that this storm never quite formed a mid-level low over the Upper Midwest. We never experienced that classic "twist" in the atmosphere over so. MN. A mid-level low would've increased the forcing more & likely would've done a better job of overcoming the dry air.

    Regardless, 4"-8" is a healthy snow storm. Definitely borderline Warning worthy at best for some, while others should've been downgraded to a weather advisory when the DRY air became apparent.

    Good news...Active weather pattern continues.

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  90. Definitely a bust in my area of Minneapolis. Only 5 inches outside (measured in multiple places). After all the hype last week (NWS in one of their discussions mid-week talked about how the analogs were showing the second largest MSP snowfall EVER!), and even after the latest forecasts, 5 inches just fell way short. And definitely NOT WSW-worthy. A beautiful snow though, nonetheless.

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  91. I agree it was a busted forecast, though since I hate snow, that's just fine. It sounds like there's more on the way this week, so there's still plenty of time for the dangerous commutes we all hold so dear to our hearts.

    My only question is, where were the Halloween 1991 blizzard comparisons? Usually we get that every time it snows here!! C'mon, forecasters, you're disappointing me!

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  92. Solid 3in inn central Sherburne Co. Had been forecasted to be 6-8 with a WSW. Should probably have been a WWA. We are in a snow drought here. Have not had a chance to use the blower yet. Hope Novaks active pattern keeps going.
    Big Daddy, is the bet on again this year

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  93. Officially 6.1" @ MSP. A bit of vindication for the NWS & their issuance of a WSW for the metro. Many reports of 5"-7" across the metro.

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  94. Wednesday looks interesting... A bit of energy with this clipper system, and the jet structure looks very similar to the setup yesterday. Because of that I think there will most likely be a bit of lift in the atmosphere. Now the problem I see with this system is there will be a very sharp cut off with snow totals.. Model guidance shows a northern flow at the 850mb and 700mb levels associated with very dry air, and the bad news is this cut off looks to be very close to MSP. Something to watch for sure as we get closer.

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  95. Cut off very close north or south of MSP?

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  96. Right now, Nashville has a tornado watch AND a winter weather advisory.

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  97. It appears that Wednesday's clipper is rapidly losing its mojo.

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    1. Don't worry; something's brewing for Sunday 12/25 to ruin Christmas for folks have to travel. It's only December. There's still lots more inconvenience to be had.

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    2. Yes, bring it! A white Christmas with a Christmas snowstorm now that is a Christmas miracle!

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  98. So it will probably drop 1/2 foot.

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  99. Lets see if the GFS continues it's long range streak with the next storm. Looks impressive, but a week out. So anything is possible. I know the totals were low from the last storm, but I'm still impressed how to GFS locked into the track. There was so little actual moisture in the thing with the high moisture to snow ratio, it really was tough to predict totals. I'm guessing by midweek we can see if the GFS is right for next Sunday/Monday. The clipper coming Wednesday doesn't do much for me.

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  100. Last weekend's storm was forecast up to a week in advance. Snowfall timing and totals were very good for those who didn't buy the 8"+ idea. Metro got 4" to 7", with 10" in southern MN.And still come are saying "Bust?" Cheap seats must be nice. You folks wouldn't last a winter in the big leagues.

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    1. I wouldn't say it was a bust, just maybe a bit of an underperformer. New thread posted, btw.

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  101. Well guys don't be surprised. These past few weeks with arctic air, and a couple of storms was just a lucky exception. A reminder of what real winters used to be when we were kids.
    Now, it's all back to normal. Rain/Snow line being an issue with every storm, etc. etc.
    Hopefully the storm won't wreck a white christmas although with the thaw a few days this week some concerns are emerging.

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