Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Latest 12Z GFS run seems to have lost the storm all together.
Yes, I thought it was just me interpreting something wrong, but it seems to have completely vanished!
I noticed that earlier too. Poof, it's gone!
It was/is still there just less snow from what I can see.
Paul Douglas has "plowable" snow for Monday in his blog, but the NWS is not so confident anymore, due to the fact that the GFS has taken the system south of us...they went from "likely" wording to 50% chance of snow for Monday!
Accuweather has only 1-3" for Monday, not exactly blog or new thread material.
Who cares what snowfall predictions any commercial organization has for a possible snow event 6-7 days away! That's just plain ridiculous!
Well travel impact map is out, but 1-3" is impactful for some so I guess we need a map for those folks
At least for the metro, Monday looks pretty tame.Happy New Year everyone!
Not sure why everyone is down on the storm for early next week. Think about it, you are putting all your marbles into the QPF or the GFS guidance. I say look at all of the model solutions out there & not just one. ALL of the guidances agree that the upper air structure support the development of a storm system over the Plains on Monday. The upper air divergence is there = rising air up top. This is important.Meanwhile, all guidances agree that a sharp baroclinic zone will develop near southern MN/WI Sunday into Monday. This would also support the development of a Winter Storm.My bet is that the GFS will come around & start to produce more QPF over our region in later runs.
I really haven't looked at the upper air dynamics yet with this stystem, but I hole heartily agree with Tom about the Baroclinic zone setting up.
way to early to be specific as to where, but gut and models are coming together nicely, would expect to see warning type snows very close to MSP on Monday thru Tuesday.
Lately the GFS has been best performer. Lately, Novak, you have been more interested in "likes" and retweets to have an unbiased approach to weather. Lately you're more into hype to gauge more interest in what you're trying to sell.
Novak has done a very nice job this year. He does stick his nose out there and I like that, he looks deeper than the models. The point of this blog is to discuss and learn. None of us have come close to nailing every storm.
I am more worried about the thermal profiles for this storm.6z GFS came in much warmer.Once again, we will manage to get rain and freezing rain.Winter is broken for MSP.
I too am concerned about the thermal profiles, and so is the NWS in their discussion this morning. Why can't it just snow around here anymore? Why do we always seem to have to deal with the rain/snow line? This is Minnesota, not Missouri. smh
Steve B absolutely false statements. December was above average with snow. Fake statements and 24 news cycles have affected your judgement.
No, reality has affected my judgment. True, it snowed twice in December, but then things changed. Where were you for Christmas? I was here in the Twin Cities and it was raining! Have you looked at the models this morning? If you have, then you would see more rain for Monday's system. True, we should get some snow too, but it's a question as to whether it will be all snow, a mix or rain. Where have you been the past couple of winters? I have been here dealing with the dreaded rain/snow line. That my friend is reality.
Anon @6:49, your reply wasn't even responsive to Steve B's comment. As an example, it could snow 30 inches on December 1, and do nothing but rain for the rest of the month, and the records would show above average snow for December. Steve B is right, more often than not we seem to have to deal with the rain/snow line here in southern MN. I have lived here for many, many years. Trust me, it hasn't always been like that. Winter usually meant either snow or the arctic air pushed the storm to our south and east and we got nothing. Rain wasn't a major and consistent element of the equation.
The issue is that southern minnesota is the fastest warming state in the Union. So it's marginally cold for snow or marginally warm for rain, even in December. Colorado type lows always bring warmer air. But whereas 20 years ago it was cold enough that even warmer storms ended up producing all snow, now even with a theoretically favorable track to our southeast this warmer air is enough to tip the balance in favor of rain, because we are so marginally cold to begin with.If mixed precip events have more than doubled in the last 25 years there is only one reason: it is too warm for all snow.They call it climate change i think, although it is obvious that it is mostly a change for the warmer.
It's OK, MSP is not broke. Look at all that cold enough air AFTER the storm!
12z out and guess what?All rain for MSP!
All rain equals early spring! No time during March/April wasted melting a deep snow pack! I'm doing the spring dance. Bring it!
Runs of the Euro and the JMA keep us all snow. wooooo, first time that sign has been shown.
Funny, an impact map for all rain
The GFS appears to be the only model in favor of a rainstorm for southern MN early next week. Let's hope it's an outlier.
It's not a outlier, Christmas storm it started all snow for MSP then went rainstorm and stayed rainstorm. This storm was all snow and now has gone rainstorm. You guys sense the trend there! Wake up folks in terms of major snows winter is over!
I'm singing in the rain...singing in the rain!
OK, the 18Z GFS is more interesting, heavier snow getting closer to the metro and 12"+ about 100 miles north. Will be interesting to watch into Saturday and when the short term models grab it. Novak may be on to something...
NWS has mixed precip for Monday, another non-event, followed by dry cold air! ���� wake us when the weather is actually snow-interesting!
Weather.com has 4-8" of snow Sunday night thru Tuesday which includes a mix to rain on Monday!
Latest NAM model calls for 2-3" metro wide for Monday.
According to Paul Douglas blog MSP is pretty much in the clear for Monday/Tuesday, says "light mix wet roads, then colder with a coating of flurries".
Of all of the models that I have seen this morning (CFS, GDPS, etc.), the GFS is the only one that is calling for rain for Monday. The track of the Euro (west to east) is wildly different than the GFS. So why is the NWS siding with the GFS, even when in the morning forecast discussion they mention that there is a wide variance between the models?
But look MSP is still not broke, plenty of cold enough air AFTER the storm. Oh the humanity!
Even Novak introduced ice/rain in his updated impact map last night. So this is hardly a snowstorm, some impacts yes, but more so due to whatever mix precip falls will be a messy/icy conditions on roads and sidewalks come Tuesday and beyond due to the arctic air
Current NWS for my part of South Mpls is 1-3 inches total, for the entire "storm." Yawn.
Well, what's happening is that the models that keep us cold enough for all snow are also the most south east with the track (as you would expect) and therefore there is less QPF.The GFS, which keeps the same track much further west has also more QPF mostly liquid.As usual it is a lose-lose situation for MSP snow lovers.
Yup but it's cold AFTER the storm! I love living in Minn-Atlantic!
@Rich, you hit the nail on the head. One of the reasons why I moved from the mid-Atlantic was because I could no longer stand the cycle of it warming up before almost every storm so it would rain, and then getting cold enough for snow AFTER the storm pulled away!
NAM model now has virtually no snow for the greater Minneapolis area, <1". Big Yawn!!
Tim. That was the funniest thing I've read on here in a while!
Northern Minnesota and North Dakota get the snow jackpot again. Surprise...surprise
I'm getting tired of worrying about Rain/Ice during the heart of Winter. Even Duluth & nw Wisconsin have to worry again. What is the world coming to?
welcome to the new normal. it is a well known and documented phenomenon called global warming.And it's only going to get worse. I think the Minnesota Climate Center projections have average highs close to 50 for December in about 50 years.
GLOBAL WARMING LOLOLOL...The earth has been changing temps for ever...we have a couple thousand years worth of records according to whats captured in the ice...awesome the earth has been around for a couple million years...so we know what 5 percent of the global temps ever recorded...lol follow the sheep.
Fun read from the winter of 1877-1878. Shows how crazy the weather has always been. http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wint77_78.html
Good read, Dave! Thanks for sharing.
This winter definitely has me consternated!
Winter Weather Advisory issued with the chance of icing. Be careful out there tomorrow, folks.
Junk winter!@Tim you definitely nailed it dude, Minn-Atlantic for sure!
I hope it gets really cold now and shoves the storm track south for WEEKS. I hate snow, and LOVE this snowless stretch we're in. Bring it!!!
Anybody hungry? Go check out the doughnut hole on radar in MSP.
Clipper next Sunday?....snow with that?, there's no such thing as a clipper with rain is there?
Sure there is, just wait until next Sunday! lol
In 8 short weeks the average high will be above freezing...........
Clippers are usually not warm enough to produce rain but they do suffer from the same problem we are going to have today. That is freezing drizzle due not to a warm layer above but to lack of saturation and lift in the dendritic growth zone (basically no ice in the clouds to accrue snowflakes).
Well, that was embarrassing...
Excellent! Made it from far south Chicago to Minneapolis in 6hr 15min!SOOOO glad that was a nice blown forecast. We encountered about two minutes of very light snow, then a bit of rain. No ice. Roads are clear.Pitchers and catchers report next month! Woo-hoo!
Roads were snow / ice covered down here in Rochester pretty much all da Had a mixed bag of precip including a few nice snow bursts!
Small exception, certainly not the rule!
Exactly what was the reason for the overblown advisory?
Not overblown, roads are very slippery out there.
I went out at 5:30 and it was brutal. Untreated roads were like a Zamboni had been on them. Really surprised how bad it got so quickly. Advisory was warranted.
Only six short weeks until Minneapolis stops maintaining ice rinks (sun angle is too high at that time).
So cold air dumps in now, next shot of any precip is early next week, when......wait for it.....temps ramp up to near freezing again, and......wait for it.....mixed or rain introduced again. And the whining/complaining starts in 3-2-1-Go!
Hats off to the GFS. It had the heavy snow band furthest north for quite some time. The GFS has had some good runs this season.
So is the GFS predicting a rainstorm for southern MN next week? I read the NWS discussion this morning. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the pattern...cold (sometimes bitter cold) & dry followed by a big warm up and rain (heavy snow for northern MN)...and REPEAT! Minn-Atlantic style! Are there any signs of this pattern breaking down? Otherwise, winter (at least snowfall) is over for the season in southern MN. Also, as our tenacious snow cover continues to be eaten away the subsequent temperatures will be warmer and warmer. Obviously, it's not just El Nino that ruins winter for southern MN.
Yes @rick. Unfortunately you'll have to live with it.Snow is now officially the exception for Southern MN. I don't believe we will ever get consistent snowcover this winter here in the MSP area.The good news? I may have finally persuaded my wife to move somewhere where it snows for real! :)
Yet three short years ago we had a 3 foot snow pack and below normal temps well into March and Novak was doing videos well into April. Huh, how soon the masses forget. Those vidoeos are still on YouTube, go look. Extremely aweful winter.
That winter was awesome! Snow kept coming....this year so frustrating!!
Exception that confirms the rule. Patterns are clear: 4 times more rain/mixed precip event since 2000s! That's less than 20 years. Like the mid-atlantic does get a snowmageddon every 5-6 years, sure there will be snowy winters in MSP as well. But they are becoming more and more rare, winter are much shorter etc etc etc.Even the NWS tweeted last week: if you like snow move something else.It's sad, but that's what it is.
somewhere else (I hate the auto correction!)
Yep... last two runs of GFS (6Z and 12Z) put the Low again in Western MN!
So I haven't chimed in for a while and there is a reason for that and it is not that the storms we have had lately have not produced big snows (or much snow at all). I am just overwhelmed by the number of people who chime in on this site that seem to get some joy out of pointing out things that are purposely hateful/hurtful/annoying. I had enjoyed following this blog because it was always about people commenting on the weather, loving the unpredictability of weather and assessing that, and hopes/dream/predictions for the next storm. But it has turned into people wanting to state things that they know will upset others. It is just fine if you don't like snow (I clearly love it), but why not chime in and assess the situation rather than purposely try to frustrate or upset people. That doesn't make sense to me and I just don't want a part of that conversation. I still follow it and hope to always be a part of it as several mainstays have truly brought great analysis to this page. I also love the videos by Bill and Novak. Love them!!I have also stayed away from commenting on the people who are purposely upsetting others. And I am doing something I don't want to do. But it has just become so pervasive. I guess I would ask these people where their heart is at--trying to upset or trying saying comments that are beneficial and profitable for the excitement we all share in following/predicting the weather. Truly ask yourself that question. Maybe a New Year's Resolution for some on here. Think about it.In the meantime, whatever the next weather event is.....Bring It!!
I hear you. I'll do my best to monitor the dialogue.
I've just skimmed all the posts in this current thread to verify I wasn't missing anything. So that we all can understand, would you care to share where anything said was hateful or hurtful? There does appear to be a number of 'opinions' that may disagree with your personal feelings towards winter or snowfall but I am not seeing anything hateful or hurtful being said. Annoying? Well that's in the eye of the reader. Any personal attacks or vulgar type or spam type of posts should of course be removed.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Well said, PWL. The blog has changed over the years. I myself am anonymous because I am tired of having so many types of accounts in cyberspace, but I have messaged Bill on FB where one can see who I am. I like your new year's resolution and hope people can stick to the weather instead of throwing arrows all over the place at those who enjoy predicting, analyzing, and reporting on Mother Nature and Old Man Winter.
NWS says "snow likely" for Monday/Tuesday system for next week. So how much RAIN/ICE will we get?
The GFS shows something for Late Mon and more Tues. Too far out for me since we have seen storms drift a little more north lately as we get closer. Curious to look at it In a couple of days. PWL, thanks for speaking up. Miss your posts and predictions. This has been a strange winter with difficult to nail storms thanks to warm temps and dry air. I love the challenge and learning how all this comes together.
The blog hasn't changed. Go back five years and there were several people (myself including) smug and gloating about the non-winter we had. I'm joyful when it doesn't snow, and I'm not going away.It's just like we have several people who get all crotchety when I call for a good summer storm. What I wouldn't give for a nice MCS right about now, given it's below zero :(in the meantime, Wunderground is calling for ~1 inch Tuesday, for whatever that's worth, which likely isn't much. The Euro says 1-2.
@Dave, so how much rain you thinking for Tuesday?
Looks like no rain this time but also may not be much snow. Curious to see if Novak sees something the models aren't showing.
Hey Novak. I liked that one of your recent tweets stated that the system for Monday/Tuesday looked interesting. The NWS, in their discussion this morning, seemed to not be very excited about amount, but rather that it will be a fast mover and they look for light accumulations. What do you think??
Dolphins vs SteelersSteelers vs DolphinsSteelers vs DolphinsLions vs SeahawksSeahawks vs LionsPackers vs GiantsGiants vs PackersRaiders vs TexansTexans vs RaidersRaiders vs Texans
Novak posted a video on his FB about two hours ago.
I just noticed Novak's video! YES! I love it when all three main models bring quite healthy snows over our general area between now and next weekend--and with multiple events to boot. It would appear that, if we miss one, we should get plenty from the other two..... Bring It!!
For as much as some people want to say this season has been boring, it has been far from that. Go ask people in ND & northern MN if it has been a boring snow season. GFK = 30", Bismarck = 40"+, Minot = 60"+. These are absurd totals for early JAN.It is only a matter of time before that kind of action shifts south. Truth is, we have been in a stormy weather pattern for many, many months. Don't forget, MSP Int'l had a crazy December with 15.8" of snow & 2.14" of total liquid equivalent precipitation. That is nearly 1.00" above normal! Meanwhile, November was wet too with nearly 3.00" of rain during the month @ MSP Int'l.What I'm telling you is that Climate Change is likely causing increased moisture in our atmosphere which leads to unusually wet seasons, especially Winter. Once that Arctic air shifts a bit further south this month, MSP is going to get into some serious snow action. The potential of that happening over the next couple of weeks is high.
That's some big talk Novak on here and in your video! Time of course will tell if you can back it up, smells like hype or potential (whatever you like to call it) but don't forget even you were abit amazed and dumbfounded the last couple of storms don't deliver to southern Minnesota.Potential is always there but as these systems draw near they fizzle...move north...dry slot/tongue...or mix! Buyer beware this year for MSP! I don't live in those other cities so yes considering all that snow it's been disappointing thus far for MSP!
You are missing the point Anonymous. The storms are NOT fizzling. Look at the stats. Nearly the whole Upper Midwest has experiencing one of the wettest '16 on record & that includes the last few months.Granted, the storm tracks have not been perfect for MSP, but they've been close. In weather, 100 to 200 miles is a fine margin for error, especially when you are predicting 3 to 5 days in advance. Again, this has been an impressively stormy last couple of months, not only in MSP, but across nearly all of ND, MN, WI. The storms have not been busts, they've just tracked a hair off of what was anticipated.
as a snow lover I hope you are correct, but as Lord Vader would say "I don't share your (snow) optimistic appraisal of the situation commander Novak".There are hints of a considerable warm up in the third week of January, rather than arctic air shifting south.But again, I hope you are right.
GFS keeps bouncing around for early next week. Meanwhile 10-15' forecasted for the CA mountains. Now that is a snowstorm!
What exactly is "serious snow action"?Next week NWS says minor snowfall for Tuesdays system and a even weaker one after that one, yet ten day snowfall maps were shared on Facebook two days ago talking about how all major models were showing healthy amounts of snowfall for MSP in excess of a foot. Personal opinion here but I think that was foolish and a mistake considering our local NWS doesn't see it that way!
Why not show model guidance? In no way was I saying that those accumulated snow output numbers were correct. However, it is a fantastic way of showing the potential that is out there. In fact, at one point in time, I called the numbers "absurd". Quite frankly, I think the majority of the public wants snow & begs for optimism in a snow 4cast. I also feel that most of these people understand that guidance is simply that and you need to take the numbers with a grain of salt. Perhaps you don't realize this?
I look to Tom not just for a forecast but an outlook on what's possibly ahead. This includes model guidance. When 3 major models show 'snow action' in the next few weeks i want to hear Tom's opinion
Model data is primarily based on 100+ years of data. Issue at hand is unfamiliar and new weather patterns that have been setting up in recent years. Computers don't get it. Being a meteorologist it's my job to interpret the data. However, lately, tangible and accurate data is only accounted for less then 36 hours in advance of an event. You posting 4-5 days in advance does nothing but garner you more likes and shares. You saying it's what people want, the "hype", is only one side of the coin. Because models show a low pressure, doesn't mean it's a snow storm, or an event for that matter.
There is a systematic error in over-forecasting snow amounts.I am still finalising the data on this, but I looked at the past 5 winters and after a painstaking effort to recompile average forecasts and actual amounts (MSP) I was able to compare the total amount of snow forecast (averaged across the different sources) and the actual amounts for a winter season.Statistically, you would expect to overforecast sometimes, underforecast others so that in the end your total should be pretty close to the actual total.In fact they are not. Even when looking at the low-end forecast (the 2 inch on 2-4 forecast) there was a systematic tendency to overcast snow amounts by as much at 10% in some winters. I averaged the 24-48 hrs before the event forecast.So if an error is systematic it is not random. It means in somewhere lies a bias.I am not a meteorologist and so I cannot comment on it but it is either a problem with the models, or a philosophical approach to forecasting snow or something else.
Always appreciate your input, Kent!
I've been a follower of this blog for years (which I've really appreciated, Bill!), and I've noticed that many times we call out mets for showing "absurd" snow maps ahead of time, even if they don't believe them (remember the issue a couple years back with a Kare 11 met - I think - showing a snow map she didn't believe in, and the ensuing discussion about "What if viewers have their sound turned off?) - calling them "irresponsible". But others have shown similar maps at similar time intervals with other good motives like Novak mentioned. My point here isn't to judge either way. It's just to say that I've seen both criticism and praise for the same type of forecasting.
Good points! We should be judging the models rather then mets. Would be fun to compare the data that Novak was kicking out yesterday on You Tube and compare to actual amounts come next Friday the 13th. A test of sorts. What do you think Bill?
Sounds like a lot of work. :-)
@boulderguy68 - you, as a met, don't you think it wound be irresponsible and unfair to compare constantly changing models to a potential storm a week out that Novak brought to our attention? What's the point?
The point would be, why? Attention to a low that could swing 200-600 miles? Or, not even come to fruition. Why bother? Amounts, timing, placement ALL change a great deal. His angle is hope. Which pulls on the strings of so many. I want snow as much as anyone, so let's all cling to hope and model data from 1920. It is going to get wilder and more entertaining each winter.
The approach that some of you are hinting is to only 4cast a 48 hr. period & forget about a 7 day forecast. If this isn't the case, then your arguments don't make sense. Most of the public wants a 7 day forecast. Hell, I would bet most would like a 30, 60, 90, etc. day forecast, but they realize the further out you go, the less accuracy. However, I would argue that we can provide a pretty decent blueprint of what MIGHT happen 7 days in advance. Will it be exact? No chance, but it is a good blueprint.The guidance that I showed yesterday in the video was important. It showed CONSENSUS of all 3 (GFS, ECMWF & GDPS) major medium range model guidances. This consensus should increase confidence in a significant snow over a good chunk of MN/WI. Can this area shift? Of course, but I believe it is irresponsible to NOT point this out.
Agree with Novak 100%
I'm not sure why the MPX NWS is downplaying Tuesday's storm & only saying "minor" accumulations. They 4cast a pretty large area of MN & western WI. Everything I've looked at points to a significant snow somewhere in the MPX forecast area. Pretty risky to say hardly any snow in the MPX area when it appears that a deepening low will track from OMA to LSE to GRB. In the good old days, when guidance hinted at that kind of a track, alarms go off @ MPX. It would be awesome if one of the MPX mets was on this board. If so, give us the scoop on why the overnight forecaster said this in the AFD.
The AFD seems to indicate they aren't convinced about the moisture levels the models are putting out, and they are in fact anticipating the snow won't reach the ground. A.K.A. dry slot, which we've seen as a recurring theme the last several years. I think it is fair to assume at this point the models will overpredict the actual snowfall based on what we've seen so far.
yup dry air screws us everytime, but yet we fall for those high qpf fields!
how can the argument be made that dry air screws up all the time when MSP just recorded its wettest year since records began?
Dude we are talking about snowstorms, not all the heavy rain that fell in 2016, since ur all over this tell me what the liquid equivalent was of the snow that fell at MSP in 2016.
DUDE,We have a thermal profile problem in MSP not a moisture problem. Since the area is warming to even get a chance of snow we need much colder air than in the past to support all snow, especially for those storms that are able to tap into the Gulf's moisture. And since colder air = less moisture we get less snow.Whereas 20 years ago a colorado low would bring a lot of moisture with it and still the bounday layer would stay cold enough for all snow, that is almost never the case anymore as the past 2 events have clearly shown.Do not come and tell me we have a dry air problem when we got 0.97" of precip on Xmas day. We have a temperature problem!
Hey dudes!, didn't these last few storms track to our west? Even 20 years ago wouldn't that still have meant mixes/rain issues? Sounds to me we have a 'track' problem.
No question this is a track/thermal problem rather than a moisture issue. I grew up in northwestern MN. Back in my younger days, It was rare that we would be in the heavy snow bands of a Plains storm system in JAN/FEB; that is Clipper season. Now, it seems common that Rocky Mountain storm's will track north of MSP & affect ND/no. MN in JAN/FEB. Hell, I can't recall one Winter Storm yet that has dipped south of the Iowa/Missouri border this season.
Interesting. Most people are not playing the Monday/Tuesday storm up very much. Novak has questioned why others are not playing it up and, I would assume, will be predicting more snow than others if his thinking plays out. I don't know if any of you noticed, but KARE11 put a quick graphic on during the 10 pm weather last night. It was literally flashed on the screen with hardly time to view the colors matched to the amounts of snow. But I looked at it online and was able to stop it to see that they had the MSP area in the 6-12 inch range! She did say that this will "surely change" as we get closer. This was the first "glimpse" of someone, other than Novak, hinting at a more significant snow for this next storm.Thoughts? Do you know what model she may have been showing??
Novak did say via FB This doesn't feel like a Major snowstorm... so 6-12 is out of the question I would presume.
I don't see anything approaching a "major storm." GFS is saying 1-2 inches.
Mid-Atlantic fans... There was a foot of snow where I went to college in southeastern Virginia (Williamsburg), it's supposed to get down to 5 tomorrow night, and by week's end it will be sunny and 66.
No watches or advisories of any kind. Not a storm to worry about.
NWS normally will not put out an Advisory until 12 to 24 hours before a significant snow. So, if the bulk of snow falls later Monday into TUE am, you would expect an advisory with the overnight forecaster tonight.Watches often come out a bit earlier.
CFP National Championship 2017 National Championship 2017 CFP National Championship 2017 Clemson vs Alabama Alabama vs Clemson Clemson vs Alabama Live
Reading the NWS discussion this morning seems like there is a lot of uncertainty regarding snowfall and strength of systems this coming week.Yes Bill the Mid-Atlantic did get a nice nailing...my brother in NJ got 8".
Bill can we get a new thread? Since a lot of comments again plus the likelihood of snow this week!