Sunday, January 8, 2017

Mid-January Snow... Will it Amount to Much?

As winter heads into the heart of January, big snows remain elusive for the Twin Cities. What will January bring?

89 comments:

  1. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 8, 2017 at 2:39 PM

    I just wanted to be the first post on a thread.

    And to say, Bring It!!

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  2. If you believe the GFS, this will be a decent snowfall. Just seems like everything shifts north a bit and ends up missing the metro lately. Novak is a believer and it's hard to disagree at this point.

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  3. Just seen a map from the euro showing 3 inches of ice near KC next weekend. Ouch.

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  4. Hot off the press, a new video for snowy prospects for the upcoming week. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rusZAWXbHdY

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  5. This could potentially be a huge win for Novak. I just don't see anyone anywhere, including Dave Dahl!!!!!, forecasting more than 2-3 inches total through most of the week, including Wednesday (unless I'm reading them wrong). Boom, or bust, though, right?

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  6. Doesn't appear no matter what Rochester is going to get anything besides little or nothing or ice. :-(

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  7. Just watched the new video, love them!!! I'm a complete novice, so I have a question... I noticed Novak uses the Kuchera Ratio, rather than the 10:1 Ratio. How do you know which one is more accurate in a particular snow "storm" or is it just a matter of preference? What is the ratio with the Kuchera model?

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  8. Kuchera ratio is an algorithm that tries to estimate the snow ratio via the given profile of the atmosphere. I believe it is the most accurate predictor of snow potential.

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  9. Huttner is saying 2-5" total for MSP this week. But unfortunately it'll be distributed across several days, making a mess of the roads multiple times.

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    Replies
    1. Yes Huttner also says January thaw next week with rain chances and says February could come in as a lamb.
      WINTER IS OVER BABY AFTER THIS WEEK!

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  10. Well the coating- 1/2" dud is almost over! Nice job by the NWS to stay conservative. People laughed at it last week when I mentioned dry air, and guess what happened again today! I'll leave it at that.

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  11. End of January looks warm, along with some models predicting way above normal temps for the month of February. Winter is becoming a short season.

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  12. I honestly believe Novak follows model qpf too much. NWS has an inch for today and an inch for tomorrow in metro , that's it for the rest of the week.

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  13. 18z nam and its high rez versions along with arw and nmm and hrrr all showing a much stronger scenerio tomm unfolding...could be a surprise last second attack. new hopwrf jumping in now too

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  14. I haven't seen anything that has proven Novak wrong yet. Models still are showing 6+" as he said in the video, NAM 4K is higher than the GFS. He never said today was going to be a big snowfall, but I'll note it created a mess out there at the rush. Let's wait until Thursday before we rip anyone's forecast. NWS is obviously not buying the models - let's see who is right. That's the fun of this.

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  15. Been following this thread, NWS did say the models were trying to forecast a negative titling trough, and current water vapor imagery is starting to show that as the trough approaches the intermountain west. Looks like Tom could score a major win with this.

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  16. I am just startled watching the 21z hopwrf come in and further strengthen and seeing the trends of the rap and hrrr.. they are moving toward a warning type strong storm quickly

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    Replies
    1. NWS has nothing, not even an advisory. 1-2" tops, what is all the commotion about?

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  17. I know. NWS just posted an hour ago with a 1in graphic and a small chance for snow on Wed.

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  18. They indeed have. Really incredible difference with model guidance. Northeast Wisconsin is buying into the model and has a Winter Storm Warning. This will be. Fun one to watch - model runs have stayed consistent and usually the NAM 4K is pretty solid by now. Let's see if Novak nailed this one.

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    1. You know the NWS has access to these models and we are inside of 24hrs and they don't see it more then an inch or two. What's all the fuss about?

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    2. Novak just posted 4-6 in the next 24 hours for the metro. Randy talked about the reason the NWS is predicting less. It's not fuss, it's the fun of trying to understand these storms.

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  19. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
    542 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2017

    ...WINTRY MIX FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED
    OVER FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...

    ...IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WEST
    CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...

    .AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A MIXTURE OF
    WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
    INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
    TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES
    NORTHEASTWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE MORNING
    THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUCH THAT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
    BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. HEAVIER ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE THEN
    EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
    MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
    3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
    PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.

    MNZ054-056>070-WIZ023>026-101945-
    /O.EXA.KMPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T0000Z/
    LAC QUI PARLE-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-
    RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-
    SCOTT-DAKOTA-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...
    LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST PAUL...
    STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...
    CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...HASTINGS...HUDSON...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...
    MENOMONIE...DURAND
    542 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2017

    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
    EVENING...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET
    AND SNOW, FOLLOWED BY SOME BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
    UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

    * EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...
    TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
    AROUND 6 PM.

    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN
    ADDITION...A GLAZING OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL
    MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

    * WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
    AND DRIFTING SNOW....PRODUCING AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY.

    * PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE
    MORNING COMMUTE. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
    CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
    ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
    THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
    BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1

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  20. I'm kind of shocked that the NWS in MPX hasn't increased expected snow totals, especially across the northern MSP metro. They may get by with a 3" snow @ MSP Int'l, but I won't be surprised if northern Hennepin, Wright, Anoka, etc. receive 4"-6"+ out of this storm today. Hell, I've already seen reports of 1"-2" this morning in these areas & radar/guidance suggests that 1/2"+/hour snow will continue on the north side for a good 6 to 8 more hours.

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  21. Snow hole developing in MSP....just a coating! Amounts on NWS look good 1-2" tops in the core.
    Yawn, seems like the good snows always miss MSP!

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  22. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 10, 2017 at 8:20 AM

    This is simple: Novak nailed this! NWS should buy into Novak Consulting Services.

    Bring it!

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    1. Not really, not too fast! He had all of metro in the 4-6" late last night...that's going to the north, MSP will be lucky to get 2" out of this!

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  23. Heavy snow currently in Golden Valley!!! Go Novak Go!!

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  24. Can't wait to watch it all melt next week!

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    1. Doubt it will all melt, with a potential ice/snow event early next week and Temps staying in the mid to upper 30s with a cold snow pack its not really probable.

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  25. Novak definitely nailed this one. Probably close to 3 inches out there right now with plenty more on the way. Very well done sticking to the guidance when basically EVERYONE made this a non-event!

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  26. Video discussing ongoing storm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLRYHDM-N4A

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  27. NWS put out the advisory at 5:42 AM today. A huge swing and a miss by them. They are also increasing amounts as the day goes on. Congrats to Novak on nailing this one and the models also have done pretty well.

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  28. Now a lot of snow falling now in Rochester but the winds are really whipping the snow around! Blizzard like conditions. Seeing gusts 30-40 mph now.

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  29. As of noon, NWS says 1.9 inches at MSP Int'l. "Non-event" and "big-event" are relative terms.

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  30. As usual, this was a difficult storm to 4cast. However, I would bet that the NWS would even say that they kind of blew it on this one. I don't believe there is any doubt that this turned into a significant event over much of the MPX 4cast area. When you look at all the accidents & the time that this event occurred, they should've hyped it up & issued Advisories well in advance instead of at 5am this morning.

    Let's not forget that many areas of eastern MN/WI, including a good chunk of the MSP metro, received a solid 3"-6"+ of snow since yesterday. This was never anticipated & should've been.

    Now, we wait for the final piece of energy to steamroll across MN/WI. This storm system for tomorrow is tricky since it will have a ton of energy/dynamics for such a compact storm. I will not be surprised if parts of southern MN/WI, including portions of the MSP metro, receive 4"+ of snow out of this. It will be a narrow (50 miles wide) but potent band with sharp gradients galore.

    If this band of snow tracks across the northern MSP metro, then, when all is said and done, that area of MSP will have received 8"-10"+ of snow since Monday. That was NEVER anticipated by the NWS or hardly anybody. However, the medium range guidances DID anticipate this which is truly impressive, especially when considering how much grief we give them. Quite frankly, I've been totally impressed with the GFS guidance this winter season.

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  31. I commented earlier about the NWS miss on this. Not roasting them by any means, they usually do a decent job. This morning was tough - I bought into Novak's forecast and headed for the office very early. Many people in my company spent 1 - 2 hours on the road and were complaining that the weather forecast didn't predict this. Ditto for the mess last night.

    In the Metro, storms like this create a bigger mess depending on when they hit and how the AM/PM rush are involved. When I woke up this morning I could tell the rush would be a mess, yet not even a Weather Advisory until close to 6 AM. It was almost like the NWS couldn't believe what was happening.

    This wasn't the end of the world and it sure wasn't a huge one day event. But it really is why this stuff is so interesting. The GFS really tracked this well and it was interesting to see why everyone except Novak was downplaying it.

    NWS is showing 1-2" for tomorrow, that is inline with the GFS, but short of the NAM 4K. Originally they predicted nothing even though the models were consistent in showing something. Props to Randy also who noted yesterday that things we changing.

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  32. I am sorry but I don't agree. As of noon the official measure at MSP which is all that counts as far book keeping is concerned was just 1.9 inches.
    We'll see how much more was measured when they measure at 6pm but in reality this was pretty a very small snowstorm (if we even want to call it that way).
    The fact that now since it doesn't snow anymore basically people may not be used to drive in the snow anymore and so even 2 inches create a mess is a different matter.
    When I first moved to MN 15 years ago, 2 inches of snow did not even make it to headlines.
    So the NWS with their 1-2 inches forecast actually did much matter than everybody is saying. yes, I'll admit it felt like it snowed more, but in the end it is the official measurement that counts. 1.9 is barely a significant event.

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    1. Fair enough. The total were I was coming from in Scott County was 3.0" for the day, but when I left around 5:30 AM it was a mix of snow and ice. The State Patrol reported 93 accidents by 11 AM in the metro. What I was trying to get at (and we can disagree) is the timing and mix of the storm was significant. We have three straight very slow rush hours in the metro and outstate had more snow and more wind. I agree it's close to a non-event on a weekend. Appreciate the respectful disagreement, that's what I like with Bill's blog.

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  33. Interesting comments. I will say that the genesis of this blog was looking at the accuracy of predictions plain and simple, almost as if it were a sport. That's why I've always been curious to hear a prediction for the airport vs. what's actually measured at the airport. Pure and simple assessment. That's still where my heart is.

    However, I also see the overall public information perspective. I.e., was the public provided with adequate and appropriate notice for a storm event. I believe that that's more of Tom's emphasis, which makes sense given his mission.

    It's also clear that 2" of snow on a Sunday morning has far less impact than the same 2" of snow when it falls during a morning or evening commute. The impact is greater when the forecast is for less.

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  34. Someone read this article and tell me what you guys think...i find it very interesting.


    http://manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2017/1/4/the-greatest-scientific-fraud-of-all-time-part-xi

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  35. Nothing like the "every house on the block was destroyed but mine, so it wasn't a bad storm" attitude.

    I think it is important that we factor in how a storm affects the whole area rather than just a small area. Again, MPX NWS is responsible for a large piece of real estate. In that area many locations are experiencing tough conditions that easily met Advisory criteria. This is NOT a ho-hum storm. Go out & drive in rural MN right now, I dare you.

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    1. Agreed. Almost everything west of the 7-county metro was shut down once the wind started blowing...despite only getting 2-3 inches of snow. Roads were drifting faster than plows could clear them. Dozens of schools closed early (or all day). And these include many schools within 50-60 miles of NWS, in areas that had no advisories until the event was underway. When schools are closing due to drifting roads and whiteout conditions without forewarning from the people whose job it is to forewarn, it is fair to say they dropped the ball, at least somewhat.

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  36. Really heavy band of snow in MG right now. Hard to see across the street. It is nice to see even if it does not last.

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  37. Yup...heavy snow from about 1:30 to 2:30 in St Louis Park..put down a quick 1.5" in that hour when the rest of Minnesota was asleep!

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  38. South metro got short changed with the snow for the second day in a row. The snow has been north of us all season. At least it's getting closer (north metro) as opposed to northern MN and North Dakota. Hoping the next storm favors us down here.

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    1. No? In Woodbury I measured 7.5-8 inches of snow over the past 72 hours. 1.5 inches from Monday's wave, 3 inches from Tuesday's, and 3 - 3.5 inches from today's wave. Spot on from Novak's prediction when all said and done.

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    2. Yes, I also live in Woodbury and we definitely got a lot more snow than the official measurements at the airport.

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    3. Don't get me wrong, the south metro did not go snowless, but you obviously got more in Woodbury than we did in Burnsville.

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  39. Ok now that all the minor snow "events" are over and a brief cold shot for a few days, our attention turns to the blow torch thaw coming that will produce a lot of rainy systems the next 10-14 days. NWS already introducing rain in their 7 day forecast!

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    1. Your subsequent comment (the last part) was nasty and I deleted it. I will not allow this on my site. Constructive comments are always welcome.

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  40. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 11, 2017 at 5:45 PM

    If a blow torch is defined as low 30s, then I would hate to see how real heat is described. Yikes.

    Also, there is no rain forecasted in the current point forecast for Plymouth. I do recognize that their is talk of a mix in the Hazardous Weather comments and the Forecast Discussion.

    Just pointing out that it is not in the official forecast right.

    Let's all be accurate at least in our comments!

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    2. Since my post was deleted in error, my point forecast does show rain and snow for next Tuesday and yes when temps are 10-15 degrees above average in January compared to what they could be that's a blow torch feeling.
      And also watching the KSTP news they to showed rain and snow for next week, so there is plenty of accuracy!

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  41. Never was a fan of Simon says

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  42. Now here's a busted forecast. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/01/major-snow-post-around-portland.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

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    Replies
    1. Yet if you are a snow lover you'll never consider it a bust... :)
      Imagine the screams on this blog if the reverse (12 inch forecast, 2 inch actual) had happened for MSP.

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  43. Hey Novak, what's going on next week, NWS serivice using terms such as "debacle" to discribe the forecast? WTH?

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    1. Well if you follow the GFS then significant snow(6+) is coming, but the EURO says hold up I think MSP would like some more mix and rain. So knowing Novak I'm sure he will have a impact map out jumping in all with the GFS.

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  44. We are statistically in the two coldest weeks of the year and there is NO Arctic Air whatsoever. Welcome to Des Moines everyone. Climate Change will continue to wreak havoc on weather forecasters for years to come. Rain/Snow lines will be the normal.

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    Replies
    1. It's 10 degrees right now and tomorrow too. Isnt that artic air?

      Delete
  45. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 12, 2017 at 8:29 AM

    I kind of had the same question, Sam. Glad Novak chimed in.

    However, I was wondering about the point forecast as it relates to the NWS discussion. With all of the variability in the models and with a very low confidence level in what the outcome might be, why do they have "snow likely" on Monday and Monday night? (For Plymouth) If I had read the NWS Discussion first, I would have thought the forecast might say "chance to snow" or "snow, sleet, and/or mix likely/possible". Just doesn't seem to match the discussion which presumably are the thoughts behind the forecast.

    Any thoughts on this?

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    Replies
    1. Do you tweet or Facebook?, ask them! I agree with you it doesn't match.

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  46. As I have been saying this for at least a couple of years on this blog (and ridiculed as well) I am glad to hear that Dr Novak is also finally acknowledging climate change.

    But isn't he also contradicting himself? This is what he posted on January 5th on this blog:

    "What I'm telling you is that Climate Change is likely causing increased moisture in our atmosphere which leads to unusually wet seasons, especially Winter. Once that Arctic air shifts a bit further south this month, MSP is going to get into some serious snow action. The potential of that happening over the next couple of weeks is high."

    I don't see any sign of arctic air shifting south (ok yes, today and tomorrow but that's it) consistently any time soon.
    I am confused!

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  47. I've been confused my whole life & it has gotten progressively worse over the last several years. Quite frankly, I think model guidance is confused too.

    I guess this is why weather 4casters will always have a job. Predicting the weather will never be a perfect science. If it was, we would not be needed.

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  48. Hell, when was the last time the Clipper Train got going? A couple of years? This is crazy and just doesn't seem right.

    BTW, I'm surprised that the NWS is even considering significant snow for next week. I would never hitch my snow wagon to a Baja low. Plus, the northern stream jet stays well north of us in Canada. This is a recipe for Rain/ICE.

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    1. Yeah no way is there going to be significant snow event next week... 850mb level is way too warm for that, but cold enough for a significant ice storm though.

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    2. I have been wondering the same thing for the past couple of years. Whatever happened to the clippers?

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  49. Also, I would normally say that model guidance (ECMWF) is on 'Crack' when it suggests the potential for Tornadoes/Severe over ne IA/sw WI on Jan. 21st. However, this day & age, who knows?

    I don't know what to think anymore. I blame it on the millennials.

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  50. Growing concern for a major ice storm in Minnesota on Monday, some models showing over 1/2" ice in southern Minnesota!

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  51. So Novak feels like ice/rain for next week and blow torch increases into the 40's next weekend, to think my accurancy was questioned yesterday! Oh well its cool cuz warmer weather means less travel issues.

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  52. From the NWS this morning:

    With this system coming in from the due south, there is concern
    that the ice storm developing in the central and southern plains
    this weekend may just march right up into southern MN and western
    WI Sunday night and Monday morning.

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  53. Latest GFS trend puts 6+ inches of snow in southern/se MN.

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  54. **WINTER STORM WATCH**
    Ok gents lets get this ball rolling...according to the NWS this storm appears impactful with the potential of 6+" of snow and .25 of ice are now on the table!

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  55. Eerily quiet here, with so much uncertainty and no real model agreement...

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  56. Glad I'm not a Met. This one looks tough to nail down, sharp cutoff to the north and ice/snow mix to the south. Iowa had a Winter Storm Watch out yesterday for an ice storm. Guessing we will get a video to see how Novak breaks this one down.

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  57. New Thread for this next winter storm watch event?

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  58. New thread. Hoping to have a video later today.

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