Saturday, January 14, 2017

The Curious Case of a Martin Luther King Day Winter Event

The forecast for MLK Day seems clear as mud with snow and freezing rain prominent possibilities.

71 comments:

  1. Relieved that my area is currently in a mostly snow forecast. Nervous that could change with the ice/snow line cutting through the downtowns. I want nothing to do with ice. Nothing.

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    1. Well you won't be happy, Novak is going with ice instead of snow for this storm from the metro on south!

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    2. Interesting, weather.com has 3-6" of all snow for MSP without one mention of ice/sleet for Monday.

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  2. ****BLUE JUICE ALERT****
    Temperatures above freezing from Wednesday thru next weekend, 5 days of blow torch coming, could be 20 degrees above normal...we're talking 40's, YES!

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  3. Latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QAJ8MeYMZo

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  4. WOW!, have you guys seen the long range? That's a lot of rain showing up on the maps for NEXT weekend with warm temps, if this verifies two things will happen, one there will be no snowcover whatsoever left and two snowlovers will be cursing Mother Nature! Btw, NWS discussion confirms this as much.

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  5. When "significant" snows were truly significant. Great read: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/01/13/a-snow-lovers-rant-let-significant-snowfall-be-significant/?utm_term=.bf73da69c6b0

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  6. GFS bowed to the EURO enjoy all the ice Minneapolis!

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    1. 00z gfs had virtually no qpf. The 6z GFS is completely dry!

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    2. The NWS is going to have to err on the side of caution with this thing, but I have a feeling this is going to be a non-event. I hope I'm right.

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  7. So can we begin the talk of winters worst behind us now?
    Meteorological winter is half over, several rain systems in the long range, 10+ day January thaw.
    Those are some tale tell signs!


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    1. WOW! A ten day January thaw, that's a long duration! Seems long, does anyone know if that length is record territory?

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  8. The 18Z NAM4km has dry air ripping that storm in two with most of Minnesota (except the I-90 corridor) not getting a thing.

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  9. Why are we even under a winter storm watch, it should be cancelled.

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    1. Your wish is the NWS's command...

      MNZ051>053-058>063-065>070-075>077-152230-
      /O.CAN.KMPX.WS.A.0001.170116T1800Z-170117T1800Z/
      SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-
      WASHINGTON-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-NICOLLET-
      LE SUEUR-RICE-
      INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ELK RIVER, CAMBRIDGE, CENTER CITY,
      LITCHFIELD, MONTICELLO, MINNEAPOLIS, BLAINE, ST PAUL, STILLWATER,
      OLIVIA, HUTCHINSON, GAYLORD, CHASKA, SHAKOPEE, HASTINGS,
      ST PETER, LE SUEUR, AND FARIBAULT
      317 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

      ...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS
      CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

      THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW HAS DIMINISHED
      FOR THE AREA.

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  10. This thing really went south. Metro may not see anything.

    First potential bust for the GFS this year.

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  11. Excellent! Packers go to the NFC title game and no snow? I'll take it!!

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  12. Day One of January Thaw 17'
    1/15-33 degrees

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  13. I think the NWS is confused as anybody else on this non-event storm:
    in their discussion and graphics they mention a mix 'intersecting the twin Cities" and yet in the grids both for the airport and my zip code (Woodbury) thre is only mention of snow as precip type.

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  14. WWA now in place (again) for southern and eastern counties. Looking at radar, it appears lots of moisture will be moving in in the next couple hours. The drive home should be fun.

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    1. According to models it isn't suppose to make it to the metro. We shall see I guess.

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  15. Afternoon commute was fine today. Sorry snow lovers.

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  16. really bad here in Farmington. looks to be raining for quite a while yet.

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  17. @Simon, btw NWS tweeted earlier about durations of January thaw. Not that I care about this damn warmth but the record is 18 days in 1944, I believe that record is safe this year!

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  18. Crazy that this thing ended up further north, quite a bit of ice southern metro. NWS is having a rough streak!

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  19. 21 days in January 1944 had highs of 33 or warmer. The warmest day was 58 (!) on 1/25/1944, which is the warmest January temp ever recorded in Minneapolis.

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  20. I believe a lot of forecasters dropped the ball on this system tonight and overlooked it after the watch was dropped. After several hours of freezing rain here in St. Louis Park and a good coating of glaze ice on all surfaces precip has now turned to a moderate sleet/snow mix and has covered that glaze...parking lots and roads are a complete mess currently...hopefully they can make it better for the morning commute, but I wholeheartedly believe MNDOT got caught off guard on this one when it was believed the precip shield wasn't suppose to make it to the metro.

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  21. After a steady rain from 4:30 to 10:30, Farmington got 3" of snow on top a 1/4" ice. Farmington school district closed today.

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  22. A couple of inches of snow on top of a sheet of ice in Rosemount. Lots of snow covered icicles hanging from everything down here!

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  23. This was actually a storm to hype a bit and yet practically anyone missed it.
    Once again, when really needed, forecasters showed once again no extra skills than blatantly relying on (mostly inaccurate) models.
    Complete and dangerous bust.

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  24. Beautiful morning with a fresh 2.5 to 3 inches of snow. Be careful though, there is a lot of ice under the snow. I agree that the NWS missed the mark with how far north the precipitation would go, but they are the only ones that I heard consistently predicting 2-3 inches of snow for the southern burbs. I hope the pending thaw isn't too devastating to our snow and ice cover.

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  25. The thaw is coming and with that lots of low level clouds. Boring!

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  26. I don't think MNDOT was caught off-guard at all. The roads for this morning's commute were just fine.

    Salt trucks were out in Roseville last night by 8pm, and they were doing a great job.

    Road crews definitely knew what was happening -- they have access to weather radar too :)

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  27. Day Two of January Thaw '17
    1/16- 32 degrees
    *correction 1/15 high was 34 degrees*

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  28. Day Three of January Thaw '17
    1/17-35 degrees
    *Update this thaw has the potential to be No.3 of all-time(12 days)*

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    1. I am sure we've had thaws much longer that.
      They are only referred to as 'summer months'.
      Just kidding of course :)

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  29. Snow storm early next week?

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    1. Interesting you say that. 12Z GFS keeps us cold enough for a snow event over a decently long period. Obviously it is fantasy land, but at least there is something to watch.

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    2. Too early, something brew potentially Tue-Wed next week, but agreed fantasyland as this point.

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  30. Euro says no!, Plus no arctic air if it happens would be wet snow or mix issues!

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    1. Euro will follow suite with GFS just give it time.

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  31. Day Four of January Thaw '17
    1/18-41 degrees
    *+18 over average,remember the blowtorch comment*

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    1. Had the back door open until 6pm last night, considered opening the garage for some grilling. Bring it!

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  32. ....um...where are the clouds? Thought it was supposed to be foggy and cloudy today. The snow is screaming in pain as it withers away into a crusty, irrelevant patch of ice.

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  33. very cloud and foggy in SE Minnesota.

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  34. Snow system still brewing for later on Tuesday....could be a high end advisory-low end warning type of wet snow event....remember we don't need arctic air for snow, just temps cold enough with a perfect track just south of the area..we have that right now but of course a lot can change in 120 hours!

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    1. You contradict Novak, he says arctic air, you say no, which is it?

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    2. Well arctic air of course helps( limits precip type issues, better snow growth and accumulates quicker)....but if the right dynamics are in play and you have a storm that tracks close enough but is south of MSP and temps are near freezing...BINGO!...you get snow....now the snow will be wet in nature but often the biggest snows occur when you are really near the rain/snow line...we'll see how it plays out...obviously our snow cover is taking a big hit currently so I'm hoping this storm pans out and our winter fun returns!

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  35. Many years ago I remember Paul Douglas saying you could predict the upcoming winter temps for Minnesota by looking at Alaska. When Alaska was very cold, Minnesota would be above average. Just when you thought we wouldn't see another cold blast, look at Alaska right now, Wow!

    http://usat.ly/2jDSLPT

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  36. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 20, 2017 at 12:29 PM

    Somebody has to help me out here. There is talk in the NWS forecast discussion of a more and more probably significant snow event for a large chunk of the area on Tuesday/Wednesday. Then, I read their point forecast and it has percentages are in the 30-40% range. I have been following the weather for a long time and when I read the kind of pseudo-confidence in the forecast discussion it usually leads to higher percentage possibilities in the forecast--oftentimes even likely wording. What gives? Did the models all shift since that discussion was written at 5 am?? And Novak is surprisingly silent on this......

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    1. The point forecasts are somewhat of a joke if you ask me. You should pose your question to the NWS on their Facebook page or via Twitter. They're good about answering.

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    2. Rain before 4pm and a slight chance or rain and snow between 4pm and 4.27pm , then sleet between 4.27 and 4.48 then snow after 4.48 :)

      What I found really accurate and even more helpful than the general discussion is their aviation discussion as it gets updated much more often.

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  37. Day Five of January Thaw '17
    1/19- 37 degrees
    Day Six of January Thaw '17
    1/20- 37 degrees
    *we are still on pace for the 3rd longest duration January thaw on record*

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  38. Sorry snowlovers Tuesday system is trending south away from MSP, total accumulation coming down!
    Besides not one word from Novak so you know he's not onboard!

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  39. Good bye snowstorm.

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  40. Not sure what folks are saying about it going south. GFS hasn't really budged holding onto totals in the 4-5 inch range. Novak did just weigh in and is saying it's looking likely. He gave it a moderate for impact, haven't seen his totals yet. I think it is fair to wonder if it will be cold enough.

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  41. Oh god novak is concerned a out the "global warming"...im more concerned about the sheep that keep following what others tell them to.

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  42. Day Seven of January Thaw 17'
    1/21- 38 degrees
    *when will this madness end?*
    *snow cover down to piles now*

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  43. watch southern Minnesota

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  44. Oh, I'm definitely on board for a significant snow TUE into WED. However, obvious red flag is low level temps. Lots of this snow will melt on contact with surface temps near or above 32°.

    On the other hand, mid-level temps are perfect for dendrite growth. Plus, the strong upper-level jet is juxtaposed nicely just south of the mid-level lows. This is an intriguing set-up & will likely dump significant snow somewhere in southern MN.

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  45. Like I commented yesterday, sorry snowlovers the snow is going south for MSP area, significant accumulation trended south! Look where the watch zone is, MSP screwed one more time!

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    1. Not a slam dunk by any means that this thing won't track north. GFS is keeping it around 100 miles more north and with lower totals. Odd the NWS is ignoring that, they haven't had a great winter so far. Should know more once the shorter term models lock on to it.

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  46. Day Eight of January Thaw 17'
    1/22- 40 degrees
    *+17 over average, blowtorch continues on*
    *fired up the grill with flip flops on*

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    1. There actually was an individual who sat outside six hours yesterday as I babysat with his BBQ going by a garage in St. Paul. Smelled delicious. He stayed out the whole time not looking cold at all. Crazy weather. If my grandparents were alive, they'd swear it's March.

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  47. Wx Underground has my neck of the woods (SW Metro - inner ring) forecasting to receive 5-8" of the fluff/slop tomorrow! Hope that pans out!

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  48. Weather.com has 5-9" for my location in Crystal(inner metro core), yet no watch or advisories or warnings. What gives?

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  49. Time for a new thread Bill? this new storm is picking up steam.

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