Monday, January 23, 2017

Some Late January Snow in the Works?

After an unusual and extended January thaw, there were signs that more typical January weather was on the way. Snow appears to be in the offing for Tuesday with slightly more seasonable cold following later in the week.

87 comments:

  1. Yay! First Comment!

    NWS said they are poised to increase the watch area another tier of counties north once the 12z run comes in since they also see the northern shift trend.

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  2. Winter Storm Warning issued

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    1. And the watch was extended one tier of counties north.

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    2. Metro sits on the tight gradient -we don't know what will happen but a chance of getting screwed for less snow line

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  3. Point totals are now 4-6 for the Uptown area.

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  4. Not sure what the NWS is waiting for, maybe because its undecided to put up a Advisory vs Warning for the core metro. The northern part of the metro needs a advisory, but the center and south needs a warning.

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    1. What? Core metro is in nothing and your calling for a warning. You must be thinking more snow, because all I see around the core metro is 2-4" forecasts with an isolated 5".

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    2. Compaction may well prevent this from getting into warning criteria, but I believe it will be close.

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  5. Randy it seems like the NWS is still hanging onto the Euro and thinking it will stay further south. I don't get it either. Another example where their point forecasts are much different than their general guidance.

    Haven't seen Novak's official pick yet. I think he was suggesting it would go further north than the NWS thinks.

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  6. someone tweeted them about it and they responded that 'probably' snowfall in the core metro will reach advisory criteria but they want to have more certainty before issuing it.
    I don't think a winter storm warning for the core metro will be issued unless this thing really moves north.

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  7. This really sucks to have gotten rid of so much of this crap, only to get it all back.

    Blah.

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  8. Pretty surprised with the NWS, their point forecast calls for 4-6", with precip slated to begin after 1pm, so as we sit some 16 hours from the start of the event and not even under an advisory! smh

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  9. Novak has 2-4" for metro, ho hum, yawn! Move on, like I've been saying for days the heavy stuff went south again. Very very rare these days that the metro gets into the heaviest totals

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  10. " like I've been saying for days " You're anonymous! No one knows what you've been saying from post to post!

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    1. If you were reading the posts I was the anonymous that kept saying the storm was trending south, even though some were hanging onto the northern models.
      Can anyone tell me the last time MSP was the bullseye for the heaviest snows and it actually verified? was it the Domebuster storm of 2010?

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    2. I can tell you that 2/2/2016, we were not in the bullseye, yet got almost a foot of snow.

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  11. Oh well. 00z runs out now and NAM 4K really moves it south with northern metro getting zilch, southern 1 - 3. GFS is a little more optimistic but it also is pushing south. If it happens as the models are showing, NWS was right and I was wrong yet again. Glad I have a day job.

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  12. Models are converging on the earlier euro solution. Also the system is slowing pretty considerably

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  13. Day Nine of January Thaw '17
    1/23/17- 35 degrees

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  14. Non-event for everyone but the far southern reaches of Minnesota. Kare 11 just said an inch, possibly two inches in the southern metro. Snore...as usual

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  15. An inch in the south metro? Wow! That is a risky prediction, especially when most short term model guidances show 3"-4" in Dakota county.

    This has the makings of another classic sharp snow gradient scenario. I could see the extreme south metro receiving 4"+ while the north metro only receives a coating and/or just wet pavement. A 4"-6" gradient from Anoka to Farmington is not out of the question.

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  16. Interesting. I'm just getting a chance to catch-up with the local outlets & KARE is rather conservative with 1"-2" in Dakota County while KSTP/WCCO/KMSP went with 3"-5" in that same area. BIG difference.

    So, Sven @ KARE is either going to be a hero or a zero.

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    1. The Paul Douglas' rule: take all models, average them and discount it by 50%. That's how they make their predictions.

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    2. And by the way, the reason I know is because I used to work in Golden Valley very close to Kare 11 and bumped into Belinda Jensen a couple of times and asked her about why KARE snow totals were always significantly lower than anyone else and she told me it's their approach: average of models *50%.

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  17. That is an awesome take Anonymous.

    So, while most other outlets AND the NWS often follow guidance averages, KARE purposely cuts the numbers by 50%. I would love to hear everyone's comments on this approach. Sounds risky & foolish to me. Plus, they may as well never show model guidance on air.

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    1. As a proponent of forecasting as a test of accuracy (sport forecasting, if you will) more than the overall public awareness component (if that makes any sense), I think KARE's approach has some merit. I've never understood the bias to over-forecast snow totals. As for the second question, yea, showing models that are inconsistent with what they say is always a dumb thing!

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    2. BTW, I kinda agree with this approach if you are looking at QPF 3 to 5 days+ in advance. Often, guidance does go overboard with QPF when looking longer range. However, I would NEVER take this approach when looking at short range guidance like HRRR, RAP, NAM 3k/4k, etc.

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  18. I'm surprised how few times forecasters acknowledge that really what it comes down to is where the heavy snow bands set up. If you look at the NWS snow graphic for tonight/tomorrow, and the sharp gradient over the metro, I can guarantee that the amounts won't lay down so neatly like sedimentary layers from north to south. It's rather like a large area has varying CHANCES of seeing the most or least snow. I'd like to hear forecasters talk more in these terms more. Some do. Most don't. It might help diffuse disappointment of both snow lovers and haters alike if they heard the forecast that way.

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    1. Sounds like you're desiring some sort of probabalistic forecasting, something I'm a big fan of.

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  19. It sure is taking a while to move north. A lot of dry air to contend with. The National Weather Service says they anticipated this, however.

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  20. Snow is really getting its act together and pushing north at a moderate pace.

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  21. Well behind schedule but the snow made it to the core metro(St. Louis Park)by 1:30am!

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  22. If it keeps retrograding across the metro, might pick up a few inches in MG. Better then nothing I guess.

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  23. Day Ten of January Thaw '17
    1/24/17- 34 degrees

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  24. Two inches in South Minneapolis. About what most outlets were forecasting I think.

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  25. Another weak winter trending for MSP area, snowfall is trending below average to date as well as above average temps thus far for meteorological winter.
    January thaw comes to a halt today but looking long range winter weather is very benign and won't really effect the trends I mentioned above.
    Another disappointing winter shaping up!

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  26. Day Eleven of January Thaw '17
    1/25/17- 32 degrees
    *That was a strong thaw, 11 consecutive days!, see you next week when a couple of more thaws pop up.*

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  27. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 26, 2017 at 10:59 AM

    Talk of a strong Clipper system?? That might the first time I heard those terms this winter!! Bring it!

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  28. Models are definitely showing multiple signs of some good snow come February. Hopefully this keeps up and we make up for dismal January!

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    1. Unfortunately the storm for Super Bowl week is trending south. Nebraska/Iowa/Illinois should see good snows.
      MSP missing another party!

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    2. He was referring to the overall pattern.

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  29. It would be nice to get the Clipper Train a-runnin'. That hasn't happened a few years.

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    1. For all I care, the clipper train can fly off a trestle like in Back to the Future 3.

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  30. For all those talking clipper snows, NWS has put out a snow map for Monday and MSP comes in with a whopping 0".
    How BORING!
    Another underachieving winter in MSP, we currently sit at 26" which is 7" below average to date, but hey we are well ahead of last years pace when he had 18" to date, so there's that.

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  31. Where are all the clouds? Last Wed/Thu they were forecasting overcast skies through the weekend. It's been a pretty sunny stretch, which has been nice. But maybe a bit of a forecasting fail?

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  32. Pushing 40 degrees tomorrow...again. Next weekend was looking like some snow around here...finally, but alas, the NWS is now talking about temperatures warming up again, so snow is not a lock. It's the good 'ol Minn-Atlantic effect once more. How tiring it has become to have lame MN winter after lame MN winter. Off to Alaska. It truly is the last winter frontier in the U.S. Sad...so very sad!

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    1. Try THP(Tug Hill Plateu) in New York, over 200" already this winter.
      Minneapolis winters have sucked lately!!

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    2. 40 degrees and RAIN (after a little bit of snow) today. Minneapolis winters on the suck-o-meter are a solid 8 out of 10 anymore. And to think, this isn't even an El Nino winter! It seems that all kinds of forces are playing a role in our winters always sucking!

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    3. Love it! Keep the mild temps coming!

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  33. Woo-hoo another dusting in the metro, who says Minneapolis winters suck, we got a dusting this morning!!!(sarc ;)

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  34. Really really sad.
    Another 40+ degree day.
    The end of the MSP winters as we used to know them.
    Maybe as someone else has mentioned it is really time to consider moving somewhere else.

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    1. Are you kidding? Today's my birthday! It almost never gets this warm!

      I'll take 43 on January 30th any old year!!

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  35. Hi... another January thaw today 42 degrees and tomorrow as well!

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  36. See ya later as we enjoy the mild temperatures.

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  37. The NWS really dropped the ball on their forecast for a colder than normal winter for the Twin Cities. December came in 1.2 degrees above normal and January will be at least 5 degrees above normal. It's funny, when the NWS predicts warmer than normal, they don't miss it. When they predict colder than normal, it appears that it's a 50/50 chance they will get it right. I guess it's just easier to predict warmer weather. After all, the bias is always towards warm weather throughout the year. It can and has been 70 degrees or warmer in the winter, but you never see 10 degrees in the summer.

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  38. What's the biggest snow at MPS int'l this season? I want to say 6 inches, but could be wrong. It's around there, though. Pretty easy winter, snow-wise. I'm curious to see where we end up for total snowfall, however, at season's end.

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  39. Last year at this time we were talking about the upcoming Groundhog day storm. Not this year.

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  40. It looks and feels like late March/early April. I was driving to work this morning and I could not believe how much bare ground there is in the metro. This is the dead of winter...in Minnesota?! I will join the chorus of several other contributors on this site and state that this is yet ANOTHER pathetic excuse for a Twin Cities winter. Is this the new norm? Minn-Atlantic seems to be the accurate term to use anymore.

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  41. Got some hope in fantasy land GFS (yes this winter is so bad that something in fantasy land is noteworthy)......

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    1. The latest GFS, GDPS, and ECWMWF (00z) runs do all show a powerful Colorado low impacting the region.

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    2. We will all believe it when we see it actually happen. As for this so called winter, just think, it isn't even an El Nino winter! Winter fans in southern Minnesota know nothing but misery. It's sort of like being a Twins or Vikings fan.

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  42. Euro putting down a 965mb low... Yeah no.

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    1. I just saw that. Couldn't help but laugh. So absurd, but it would be hell of a show if it materialized lol. Even if we don't get slammed at least there is something of relevance to track, for now...... until the models lose it altogether....

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    2. Oh yeah would be hell of a show, anythings possible! But being realistic I'm pretty sure it will turn out to be a ~980mb low.

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  43. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 31, 2017 at 3:22 PM

    I don't care what the low's numbers are (I do, but....), I just want any low to come this way and dump a pile on us! Anything in Fantasyland is worth tracking. Early next week, baby. Bring it!!

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    1. Looks promising! 18z GFS holds on with surface low slightly further south. But... mid level low over central Iowa. Obviously way too far out but at least the storm still has hope of becoming something.

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    2. I've noticed a pattern that when you say 'bring it' the storm always seems to miss. Maybe try a new cheer or add a word to it. 'Bring it' isn't doing the trick.

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  44. GFS - Good bye storm

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    1. Is tht your official forecast this far out?

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    2. It is the alternative fact forecast

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    3. GFS says goodbye and EURO says hello. Going to be fun tracking!

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    4. You can track any storm, but none of them will significantly impact MSP they never do, it's either north or south and we get sloppy seconds or side brushing leftovers

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    5. Dave Dahl got a woody, it's a lock! Bring it.

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    6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  45. 17 consecutive months of above normal temperatures in the Twin Cities. http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/15_17_months_above_normal.html

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  46. Wow! That's depressing. Can you imagine how many people would be jumping off buildings if we had 17 consecutive months of below normal temperatures?!

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    1. Kare's Sven seemed pretty happy this morning about the streak of 17 consecutive warmer than average months. He said that January was warmer than last January, which was an El Nino January. He's on record predicting that February will follow suit after this brief cool down. The NWS blew the winter temperature forecast. I am hearing that El Nino is to return again later this year, just in time to cheat us out of another winter. Fairbanks, AK is looking like a winter fan's only real option anymore, but temperatures are warming there too.

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    2. Marquette, MI is much better.
      Even though this winter they are running 30 inches below average so far they have gotten 89 inches, with 15 on the ground.
      That's where I am moving from next winter.

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  47. GFS back on with the snow for next week, more for central MN but at least its back after it disappeared yesterday. New thread Bill?

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  48. Funny, yet frustrating, how model guidance can flip-flop from one run to another. GFS now hinting @ a full blown Blizzard over much of the Upper Midwest on TUE into WED. Yesterday, it showed hardly anything. I can't wait to see some of the weather outlets jump all over this latest GFS revelation, especially after they dismissed the idea yesterday.

    Truth is, upper level dynamics with all model guidances have always showed the potential for something significant over our region for several days now.

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  49. New thread for possible event next week.

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