Monday, February 27, 2017

March Onward

Looking ahead to March... will there be any interesting weather in store?

157 comments:

  1. Will you look at that, March 1st and Novak is advertising snow, naturally though not for the Twin Cities as it slides, wait for it....wait for it...south!

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  2. Come and get it! Bring truck and shovels!

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  3. Horrible winter continues, let's just jump to Spring already can we please.

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  4. Terrible winter in my book.. I'd rather have spring come early instead of having these cool downs and warm ups.. (in February...) Maybe we will have a fun and interesting storm season!

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  5. A very strange white and cold material is falling from the sky in Apple Valley. What is it??!! Quick, call out the national guard! Brave photographers, take pictures for subsequent generations to view, otherwise, they aren't going to believe this!

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  6. More evidence for those out there still skeptic that the so-called the Twin Cities 'winter' is a fraud.
    Last night into this morning:
    Rochester 2.5"
    St Cloud 2.5"
    and of course MSP: 0.6".
    It literally snows everywhere else except in the cities.
    I am sure more evidence will be provided in the next couple of weeks.

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  7. Oh there was more than enough snow to make for a stupid commute this morning. And yet there's still bellyaching here. Predictable.

    The only saving grace is that we might hit the upper 50s Sunday. Bring it!!

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    1. Only site on the interwebs wishing people poor and hazardous weather. Weird that people love to hype 2 hour commutes and traffic accidents.

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  8. Last year about this time I made a comment regarding the pervious warm weather season maybe starting the severe weather season off a liitle earlier in the plains. Didn't seem to make a big difference and it was a rather mild severe weather season for Minnesota. It got me thinking about this upcoming spring and I have a question. Is there any cause and effect when it comes to warmer, milder winters in Minnesota and a lesser than average number of severe weather events in the UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES during the following Spring/early summer?? Seems to me that a gradual mild transition from a warm winter to spring would lead to less drastic clashes of Cold and Warm fronts in our area could cause less severe events as the Spring and Summer seasons "duke" it out. I know there will still be severe weather but I was just wondering if there is any data on this or maybe a expert on here could set me straight. I'm done for tonight,...talking out of my arse probably. ;)

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  9. Joe Bastardi has an interesting theory about it. In his opinion the key is the temperature trend at 700mb. Persistent and above average temperature at 700mb tend to tame severe weather significantly. You should read his blogs about it, it is indeed very interesting.

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  10. Whatever you do, don't look at Joe Bastardi's twitter feed. Mother of god.

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  11. Any prediction anybody as to how long will the above average months streak will go before it breaks?
    We are at 18, I'd say we go up to 24.

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  12. Climate change is here to stay, the streak will be endless, it definitely wont end this year, El Nino is coming!

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  13. Ok I know it's NEXT weekend and it's the GFS, but it lays down some impressive snow totals of a 12"+ in Minnesota including MSP, again I know we have seen this before but at least there's something of interest to track.

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    1. New GFS drops even more snow end of next weekend and the Canadian joins in as well with significant snow. Trending potential or fantasyland?

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  14. Blocking pattern that develops over the Arctic regions next week is critical. That forces unseasonably cold air south into the northern U.S. = potential for significant snow for many of us.

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  15. GFS is beating on its chest but the Euro isn't in agreement for next weekend. Way too early.

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  16. Latest GFS pumps out even more snow for next weekend and beyond, if that's possible. Also the Canadian is on board but brings its significant snow south of Minnesota. 60's tomorrow but winter isn't over yet folks!

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    1. This is the same GFS that had 20" of snow for MSP last week correct? Fake news, not happening Anonymous's and Novak!

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  17. There is no doubt that you need to take this outlook with a grain of salt. Predicting a direct Winter Storm hit on MSP is foolish considering all that has happened this snow season. However, I can damn near guarantee you that a good chunk of the Upper Midwest will receive significant snow (6"+) over the next 10 days. Will this finally hit the MSP metro? Who knows.

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  18. If the Euro is right, we are going to pay for all this warm weather starting this weekend. Big push of cold air coming. Guess we are overdue.

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    1. Here we go.....the to early to know anything hype machine is full throttle starting now. Popping my popcorn. You guys!

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    2. Is there another place in the world where more people think that we "pay" for nice weather? Just friggin enjoy it for god's sake. It's been 18 months above normal. If we were gonna pay, it'd've happened by now.

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    3. Love it! I share your amusement.

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    4. Fair enough, "pay" made me sound like a TV guy. I actually love the warmer weather. What I should have said is I do believe we will see one more solid shot of winter, Euro is sure indicating it. Novak earlier on Facebook said this month may end our streak of above average months.

      To those anonymous folks who seem to enjoy sitting on the sideline and mock everyone. This was a forum for geeking out on weather. Our words aren't always perfectly chosen and we sure are wrong. I love learning about weather. See Tim's comment below.

      I've been hear for a number of years, same name, and usually wrong - but really enjoyed the debate. Hell, I even enjoy listening to Dan Barriero mock weather terrorists.

      But that fun is really ending for me here. Too much of the anonymous finger pointing hiding behind a keyboard crap. Love the folks who read the models, NWS discussions, and other sources. Miss seeing more of Randy and Plymouth.

      Time to hang it up for now. Maybe someday I'll reemerge with a private forum for weather geeks. Enjoy everyone.

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  19. NWS hinting at snowy possibilities at weeks end, but after the last significant snow debacle I'm very skeptical on listening to anyone suggesting snow for MSP! I'll wait till flakes are actually falling to believe anyone this winter!

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  20. It really is sad this forum has gone off the deep end with trolls and people unwilling to put their name on anything. It used to be such a fun place for analysis and intelligent conversation. :(

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  21. Finally a voice of reason, Paul Douglas states in his blog the "biggest/wettest storms sail south of Minnesota into mid-March". Don't buck the trends Paul, nice job!

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    1. Good.
      There is no chance whatsoever that MSP is going to record accumulating snow again this winter season.
      The GFS may even have 400 inches 2 hours before the event. It won't happen.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  22. Interesting indeed is that the SPC has put the Minneapolis-Saint Paul proper under a slight chance for severe weather for today.

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    1. I was just looking at that myself. Sounded like a conditional threat based on clearing which seems to be the case more often than not.

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  23. There it is...there's this site in a nutshell. Paul Douglas is a "voice of reason" because he's calling for storms to miss south through the next 2 weeks. However, anyone interpreting the models and relaying that they are pointing to a direct hit for MSP are "hyping" and are bereted for simply following their passion for weather and communicating it here.

    I've been reading this site since the beginning, and I still love the contributions for the regular mets on here. It fuels my own passion for weather. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE ignore these anonymous people who don't have the courage to attach their communications to a name. I will gladly continue to read your weather thoughts, analysis, and forecasting...whether it's 2 hours out or a week. It's weather. The unpredictability is what makes it FUN for some people.

    I am one of them.

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    1. Can you suggest guidelines for how I can decide which comments to delete? I'm all for cleaning things up. Even having people provide an identify more than Anonymous doesn't necessarily help.

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    2. I personally don't get any value from anonymous posts. Even if there was in-depth analysis, it's tough to trust if the poster isn't even able to post using a valid account.

      But it's everyone's right to post whatever they want. I can choose to ignore the anonymous folks all together and still enjoy what this site and it's regulars have to offer.

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  24. Settings for Blogger - disable anyone :-/

    Who can comment? Anyone - includes Anonymous Users
    Registered User - includes OpenID
    User with Google Accounts
    Only members of this blog

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  25. Most models trending south with heavy snow again, expect the cold but not much in the way of snow, sums up our winter here in MSP land.

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  26. Unfortunately cold Arctic high is going suppress any significant snow south of MSP, sorry snowlovers not your year.

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  27. MSP under bulls eye for a tornado watch?!?

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    1. Just saw that. Can't believe it! I wonder: what is the earliest tornado watch for MSP? I know we had one in November one year.

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    2. And the Convective Outlook still only places us in SLGT, and with a 5% tornado risk. So that's interesting they want to issue a watch.

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  28. Kudos to the NWS. They nailed this one. There was a tornado watch and we got a tornado. Great forecast!

    Very interesting day!!

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    1. Yeah I was thinking the same thing, it was a really great forecast. No doubt.

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  29. Updraft helicity parameters off the HRRR when I had the time to check them were strongly hinting at rotating updrafts just NW of the metro.

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    1. I noticed that as well. HRRR nailed the path of that particular cell.

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  30. What a crazy crazy day...tornadoes and severe weather to now HEAVY SNOW. I know most of you are asleep and the snow may be over when you awake so I'm reporting it now...its coming down in a good clip, too bad it wont last long, but fun to see!

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  31. darrikinchamplinMarch 7, 2017 at 7:02 PM

    NWS for Champlin area shows 70%/80% chance for snow Sunday/Sunday Night, up from 50%/60%.

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  32. Report from northern tornado central.
    While most of the media were concentrated on Ann Lake further north at Elk Lake on the NW edge there was widespread devastation. Lots of shingles removed and sheds overturned as well as several semi trailer overturned in peoples yards. Loads of mature oaks toppled onto homes or pushed into the road. Large stands of pine pushed over flat. I feel lucky to have escaped all this as I am 1/2 mile away. But, the NWS did a good job with the warnings. The sirens went off at least 20 minutes before touchdown. We were over helping with the cleanup today. Interesting the number of gawkers driving by.

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  33. I've been one of the anonymous readers/posters for quite some time. Love this site. Please keep it going.

    I am probably in the minority, but I actually don't mind the Anon posters. There are definitely some trolls. But there are just as many, if not more, who make some valid points. Just because they don't fall in line and drink the kool-aid being thrown out by the mets, news stations or NWS does not mean they don't have valid points. The personal attacks I just ignore. Can't please everybody. Keep this site tho because it is absolutely the most fascinating source of information in the week leading up to a storm. Love hearing the mets discuss things I have no idea about. I find myself googling one or two terms every time I watch one of Bill's and Novak's videos so that I can further feed my interest in weather!

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  34. Wow! Can't ignore the latest 12z model guidance that continues to push the best dynamics further north on Sunday into Monday. I'm buying it.

    I will be surprised if someone in southern MN, near or just south of the MSP metro, doesn't receive 6"+ of snow out of this system.

    - Upper Level dynamics are solid
    - Arctic air in place creating a 15:1/20:1 snow ratio = rapid accumulation of drier snow.
    - Low level forcing looks better than earlier anticipated.
    - Mid & Upper level low appears to stall over so. MN/WI creating a trough.
    - It is March = More moisture to work with in general.

    Time to get the snow talk going. This snow storm should prove to be one of the most satisfying snow systems of the season.

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  35. On a side note, it will be fun to see how KMSP handles this system over the next 48 hours.

    Several days ago it appeared likely that accumulating snow would fall over the metro on SUN/MON yet KMSP refused to buy into the solution. In fact, they were simply talking "Flurries" while KSTP & WCCO were strongly hinting at accumulating snow.

    I'm wondering if & when KMSP folds under the pressure & does the classic 'Flip - Flop'. If they stick to their guns & continue with the "flurries" 4cast thru the weekend, I will be thoroughly impressed. I will consider them crazy, but still impressed. Cody Matz of KMSP has redefined the word "conservative" in weather 4casting & I believe he is on air this weekend. He has been promoting the "No hype" attitude & we will see if he sticks to his guns this weekend.

    Keep in mind, many weather 4casters are "Trigger Shy" due to all the criticism as of late. I wonder if this will play a role in whether or not the NWS issues a WATCH for this system. In a "normal" situation, they should issue a Watch for a good chunk of southern MN within the next 24 hours.

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  36. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 10, 2017 at 9:16 AM

    Yes, this will be very interesting to watch. I enjoy the storms that don't come with a lot of hype way out as my hopes get dashed too many times when it is so far out. But this system has taken on a more interesting feel the last 12 hours and seems like it might surprise MSP or somewhere really close in the near future, which is great as not as many things will change as compared to models showing something really far out.

    We will see how/if the NWS adjusts their current thinking as they really only have the "southwestern most" counties in the area of concern as they talked about this morning in their discussion:

    A much stronger shortwave and inverted trough arrive on Sunday
    into Monday. Most of the area along and south of Interstate 94
    looks to see at least light snow, but model consensus has
    exhibited nice improvement, and depicts potential watch/warning
    criteria snowfall (6+ inches in 24 hours) to more likely only clip
    a few of the southwesternmost counties (roughly south of a Canby
    to St James to Albert Lea line).

    So, let's just Bring It. It is cold and winter still so Bring It!!

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  37. KMSP chief meteorologists is Ian Leonard who as most of you probably know is originally from Canada.
    Up there where they are used to 'real' snow anything below 6" is flurries.
    And considering the trend this winter being conservative is the best attitude.
    As usual this storm will find a way to miss the core metro.
    So relax, not big deal.

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    1. You heard him everybody, pack it in and head out. Nothing to see here. It has been foretold that MSP will receive nothing.

      Praise be to Anonydamus.

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    2. When in a drought, don't predict rain.

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    3. Isn't that the truth. Hence, the anticipated apprehensiveness of many 4casters & media outlets, especially in the MSP metro.

      Again, although many believe that weather 4casts have been horrible this snow season, that simply isn't the case. A large chunk of southern MN & western WI have been 4casted well. It is just the MSP metro & portions of central MN/northwestern WI that have experienced near misses. Ask people in RST & Red Wing, they will tell you that the weather 4casts have been pretty damn good this snow season. That is only 30 to 70 miles away from MSP.

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  38. One of the most well-described and validated laws in meteorology is the so-called law of persistence, by which established trends are very difficult to dislodge.
    So solely based on that I dare predicting that there is a higher chance that this system bill behave similarly to all others this winter and only deliver a glancing blow to the MSP metro.
    Personally I don't put too much faith in the NAM as it is known to have a northern bias and has been junk most of the past 3 winter seasons.

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  39. I think we are slightly above average for snowfall this year down here in Rochester.

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    1. yes. 2.7 above average to date to be precise.

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  40. Winter Storm watch posted for southeastern Minnesota.

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  41. Those are the La Crosse office cwa counties.
    Let's see if/when the MSP office feels as bullish and extend north.

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    1. They got bullish at 3:54 and are calling for 4-8". Let's hope it pans out! Good excuse to skip that Monday morning commute :)

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  42. An Anonymous posted earlier and said "relax" on the Sunday system, very good point! I'm sure you all haven't forgotten MSP was under a watch almost two weeks ago for 12-18", and the grand total for MSP was 0". So yeah Novak can say all he wants about the forecast being pretty good this year and yeah for certain areas it was but not MSP, so those of you outside of MSP good for you, those in the core we have been screwed and will wait for the "White of the eyes" of this storm to show up. Currently all models except the NAM show heaviest to the southwest with a glancing nuisance for MSP core

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    1. I think it's important to point out that this storm is VERY different than the last storm and the many others that missed the MSP Metro.

      The biggest difference is that the Metro was in the bullseye last time leading up to the impact and then it shifted. This storm has been aiming south for the past week and is now trending TOWARDS the Metro in a time frame when it would typically be shifting away.

      So we are less than 48 hours out and the storm is coming for the Metro. Have fun with it! Go buy a sled!

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  43. Quick note.

    Totally disappointed in KMSP. Cody Matz caved in & is now, all of a sudden, predicting significant snow for the MSP metro. It would've been awesome if they wouldn't have flip-flopped & stuck to their guns saying just flurries.

    It makes me wonder what made KMSP finally cave in. Some certain model guidance run? Can't be because most guidances were showing snow for several runs now.

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  44. I just read the NWS local forecast discussion. It's starting to look like more of the same, at least for the TC metro, as far as snow...or should I say the lack thereof. This time it looks like the very dry air will keep us from a snowstorm. There's always something that keeps the storms away (e.g. dry air, warm air, tight snowfall gradient, etc.). Would Mom Nature please put us out of our misery and fast forward to May?!

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  45. I was just having the same thoughts. As soon as I saw that the winter storm watch had not been advanced to a winter storm warning for the metro, and there are fewer than 20 hours before the anticipated start of the event, I knew things were going awry for us metro snow fans. Let's face it, this just isn't the metro's year for snow. It's been all around us all season, but it hasn't been here and it's starting to look like our last hope for the season is diminishing by the hour. As the Cubs used to say, "There's always next year!" Yeah, right, until you start reading about the pending return of El Nino...

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  46. Nuisance for metro again, were nuisance cities not Twin Cities

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  47. NWS laying the groundwork for metro bust potential yet again, sorry Novak not the " most satisfying system of the year", more like one of the unsatisfied winter seasons.

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  48. As I said: law of persistence: in a winter where it has snowed everywhere else except the MSP metro, it is most likely than not that it will indeed continue to snow everywhere else except the metro, as the track of this system shows and the major Noreastern on Tuesday shows.
    it is really a very basic and simple rule that works pretty well.

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  49. This morning NWS has the Twin Cities in 4-6. Yesterday at 4pm, it was 2-4.

    These are facts.

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  50. It is not going to take much to make this one of the most satisfying snows of the season.

    I expect MSP Int'l to accumulate 3"-5" of snow. A good chunk of the southern metro (Scott, Dakota, Carver counties) should get a solid 5"-7" of snow. As usual, there will be a sharp snow gradient across the MSP metro. The losers on this storm will be Anoka, Washington & Isanti counties where only 1"-3" will fall.

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    1. How is that satisfying?, I wouldn't use that term, now if your on the east coast that's SATISFYING, 3-5" is a appetizing nuisance.

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    2. I think he means relative to this year?

      With how this "winter" has gone, 6" will feel like a lot, lol.

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  51. Only a dusting so far in South Minneapolis, close to the airport. VERY small light flakes. Sporadic. Anemic.

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  52. A good 1.5 to 2 inches in Rosemount. Steady snow, small flakes.

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  53. Well the snow is just about thru the metro core, so tell me snow lovers residing in the core who is satisfied with today's snow?

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    1. I mean.. its alright. But more would be better :)

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  54. If anyone's curious what happened to the clipper system its now on the east coast, dumping a whopping 1-3ft of snow...

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  55. I am sure Bill, a fan like me of probabilistic approaches to forecasting would appreciate this article.

    http://mashable.com/2017/03/14/what-happened-blizzard-stella-forecast-bust-nyc/?utm_cid=hp-n-1&utm_content=bufferfd512&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#pAL9i4r9YaqO

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    1. Thanks for sharing! Interesting read.

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  56. I'm sure most snowlovers are beyond done with this below average winter snowfall season and a lot of systems that look good 5-7 days out for MSP...but maybe here we go again most major models show the potential for accumulating snow close to home a week from today with marginal cold air, even the NWS started to discuss the potential of a "Colorado low" late next week, what's the chances that Mother Nature throws the metro a bone and nails us with a major snowfall as we turn the calendars to spring?

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  57. Fans of the science and art of forecasting: interesting read. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/15/weather-service-made-poor-decision-in-overplaying-noreaster-snow-predictions/?utm_term=.d3b9040c5fd2

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  58. At least they get snow on the East Coast.

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  59. Well looks to be our snow season is over! I know it wasn't really a snow season to begin with, but NWS going with rain and temperatures well up into the 40's. On to next year!

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  60. The Southern Third of MN (roughly from the Twin Cities south) will be snow-free in winter within 10 years.

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    1. Like Des Moines is now? (Hint: It isn't)

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  61. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 19, 2017 at 2:40 PM

    I love that we are getting into a wetter pattern. Bummed that we are wasting a 2-3 inch precipitation amounts with rain when we are still in March. Maybe Novak will come through and predict snow. But if it can't be snow, then I don't even want a mix of anything. Let's just have all rain and move on, but here's hoping for all snow. I know.....not much of a chance of that, but I have noticed that the NWS keeps bouncing around with their use of the word SNOW in their forecast. Combined with rain.....but still the word keeps appearing. If is not going to warm up, then bring it.

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    1. I hear you PWL... snow keeps going and coming in the forecast for later next week, but it looks like it's simply too warm. Discussion says predominantly liquid just snow to start and finish.

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    2. How's the snow bet going with your brother, Bigdaddy?

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    3. Thanks for asking, not so good sir!
      I have the lead in real snow 36-22...but I gave a 28" spread to make up the difference in average snowfall for both locations....so I'm down 50-36...unless some surprise blizzard happens(not likely)...I will be defeated because of another subpar snowfall season.

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  62. Ditch the shovels PWL and all snowlovers. Winter is dead! March going out like a wet lamb!

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  63. A lot of moisture coming over the next two weeks, but par for the course no cold air to tap for at least a season ending dumping of snow, might I add with a favorable track south of Minnesota with the storm. Well spring arrived today enjoy its on time arrival, we can hopefully talk about snow again when October arrives, see you in 6 months!

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  64. Remember the time when their used to be late winter/early spring snowstorms. Where are they?

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  65. Split flow has been the dominant feature this winter.
    So even with favorable tracks to our south there is no mechanism for the cold air to be drawn into the moisture.
    As long as this remains the dominant feature in future winters big snowstorms will not materialize.

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  66. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 21, 2017 at 8:12 AM

    I would love some dialogue on this:

    When forecasters do snow forecasts, they predict the snow forecast in inches. They usually give a range, typically 1-3, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8, 6-10, etc. When the storm is done (or even during the storm), many people analyze the accuracy of the forecasters due to the numbers of inches that were actually received. Many are highly critical of a forecast this was "inaccurate".

    Now, compare this to the way that rain is forecasted, as is the case later this week. The NWS started, several years ago, to put an amount of rain attached to a rain forecast. However, most forecasters don't put an amount on rain forecasts. They may use words like "heavy rain" or "moderate rain", etc. but they don't usually put amounts on rain. But even when they do, it is hardly ever criticized when the amount of rain is off from the predication or "less intense" then the intensity of rain predicted.

    I guess I just wonder why. Is this because people are impacted more by the amount of snow that falls, when it falls, etc.?? Or is it because they can be more critical because the forecast sets itself up for this? Someone can easily compare the actual snow (which they can easily measure) to the forecasted amount?

    To me, it seems inconsistent on the part of the regular public to be so critical of snow forecasts and not apply the same level of criticism to rain forecasts. And/Or is there a different way to forecast snow and/or rain to have this criticism be less critical or at least equally critical.

    (I know that Bill has proposed a thought on how to predict snow, but would this address my point?) Other comments??

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  67. The answer is very easy: rain does not accumulate and so people do not notice really how much felt unless you have a gauge. And the rain dries pretty fast especially if the sun is out and therefore the effect of rain is limited to the duration of the storm itself, and little afterwards.
    So whether you get 0.25 inches or 1+ inch of rain does not really make much difference in normal conditions.

    Now of course you can have flash flooding but is usually more dependent on orographic and morphological conditions of the terrain around a given location and are usually handled with flash flood warnings as appropriate.

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  68. I would also add that people's criticism with respect to rain is more of: you predicted dry and it rained, or you predicted rain for 3 hours and it rained all day instead of you predicted 0.14 and we got 0.76 or so.
    How much it rains does not seem to bother people as much as how long or whether it rained at all.

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  69. Novak's bold prediction will most likely be wrong.
    March will be our 19th consecutive month of above-normal temps it now appears.

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    1. Anyone know a good site that you can follow +/- temps compared to average as the month goes on? Where are we at right now with 9 more days of march left?

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  70. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=mpx
    You will have to run the total up to date yourself though...

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  71. So we're 7 total degrees below normal for the month with 10 days left. We should be able to get above average if the forecast verifies.

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    1. We'd have to average 38.2 degrees the rest of the way to be exactly average for the month.

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    2. Most of the forecasted low temps through the end of the month are near or above 38 degrees.

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  72. I should've know that the overnight lows would sabotage my hopes for a below average month. Now, my only hope is for the highs to be near or less than 40° between now & the 1st of April.

    I curse these damn warm winter nights. Oh well, I guess if you are going to continue a string, let's do it in fashion. I say we shoot for 36+ months in a row of above average temps.

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    1. But there's a problem with using averages. If the month winds up -0.1 (or even +0.0), they'll say the streak is broken. But if it's +0.1, the streak is alive.

      What's the difference? Almost nothing. It's far more useful to use standard deviations.

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  73. Imagine if this storm was a snow event, complete bust.

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  74. Was thinking exactly the same.
    1"+ rain?
    Once again models incredibly overestimate precip amounts.
    This is really worrying.
    And it is even more worrying that forecasters continue to rely too much on them.
    As Joe Bastardi puts it all the time:
    " If you wait for the models to inform your forecast then you are dumb".
    You go with analysis of analogous situations in the past, as that is a much better predictor of what will most likely happen.

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  75. "You go with analysis of analogous situations in the past, as that is a much better predictor of what will most likely happen."

    Isn't that what the models do?

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    1. Apparently not, otherwise they would be much more accurate than they've been according to him.

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    2. I'd be most concerned with the NWS. Forecast for a day long soaking rain. .66 to 1.0. Total so far .18. Something is wrong.

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  76. 81 in Chicago today. This flippin cold front needs to go north. Far, far north.

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  77. EURO says snow next week!

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  78. Current Canadian model says snow as well!, trending....

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    Replies
    1. Give it up , snow is done for this pathetic season!

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  79. My data only goes back to 1891, but right now we're above average for March.

    This month:

    March 2017 average high = 40.04 (normal = 39.02)

    March 2017 average low = 24.33 (normal = 22.28)

    Average temp = 32.19 (normal = 30.65)

    So we're +1.54 so far. If this week's forecast holds, we'll be above average this month. Shouldn't be tough either.

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  80. The NWS actually uses 30-year rolling averages, so you should only consider1980-2010 data; that is the benchmark averages are compared against.
    Since the 2000s were much warmer than earlier decades the average normal is a bit higher than when computed all the way back to 1891. I think we are slightly above for March but by less than a degree currently.
    But despite all that, yes we will end up above average for the 19th straight month.
    I start to believe that until the next 30-year average are renewed in 2020 it will be tough to get below average, especially in winter. Maybe a particularly cloudy and rainy summer month here or there can break the streak but it's going to be tough.
    The trend is very clear.

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  81. In that case, my March data for 1980-2010:

    Avg hi = 41.13, lo = 24.01 (overall = 32.67).

    So really not that different from 1891-2017; only about half a degree. The 2000s were warm, but we had warm decades before that.

    Updated for 2017 (since we hit 61 Monday and my earlier post didn't have that data)

    March 2017 avg hi = 41.11, lo = 24.33 (overall = 32.72)

    So we're +0.05 with four days to go.

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  82. We're +14 on total departure for the month with 4 days left. We should easily continue the streak.

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  83. Beautiful day! Two in a row!

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  84. End of forecast period next week NWS discussion hints at possible snow!

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    Replies
    1. Really?
      I did not know the NWS long-term discussion extended all the way to December.

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  85. So much for mid-70s!

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    Replies
    1. Dude it was 73 for high, pretty darn close!

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  86. Snow in the NWS forecast for MSP! Looks rather cold Monday for almost mid- April.

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    Replies
    1. Swing and a mis by the NWS on the 1-2 inches of rain. Nice job!

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    2. They've been incorrect for the past 3 months.

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    3. I was thinking the same thing, I live in the heart of the metro and I think there was 15 drops of rain on the windshield yesterday. Very very poor performance indeed, but I'm sure some will come to the defense of the NWS and say thunderstorms are very unpredictable, yes they are I agree but if you put a graphic out claiming 1-2" of rain will fall over a fairly large area then you believe that area will be affected more by heavy rain and not so much thunderstorms which in yesterday's setup were moving in a quick fashion with no training. Let's face it it was a huge bust, it's the equivalent of forecasting 6-10" of snow and only getting 2". Also let me add that many forecasters NWS and social media types alike have been very wrong with sensible weather for the immediate metro for a while now!

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  87. Very pretty wet snow falling in Maple Grove for the past 2 hours, and the grass is white but slushy on roads. The NWS got the snow forecast right! Love April snow!

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  88. Snow may enter the picture again mid next week, cooler air will be with us along with precip, all models show snow nearby in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Crazy!

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  89. Novak said something about keeping a close eye on a cold system next week as well!

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    1. Good job Novak snow was flying NE Minnesota today!

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    2. Do you see snow with next weeks system? Some global models are showing a decent amount not too far from metro!

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    3. NWS discussion says wintery mix potential this time next week! Just saying.

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  90. Very cold next week, some 20-25 degree departure days on tap, even snow potential! Hope no one planted yet. Minnesota weather at its finest from a beautiful spring weekend to a ugly fall-like days!

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  91. Will April finally break the consecutive months above average temperature streak?

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    1. Currently MSP sits 5.9 degrees above normal for the month with a week to go, I would say the streak is safe, unless it's below average the whole week by a lot .....we shall see!
      Crazy to think that snow is still in the forecast even when my lawn has dandelions!

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  92. Novak and NWS still hinting at snow for Sunday into Monday. EURO has major/significant snows in the cards for somewhere in Minnesota, remember May 2013 it could happen again!

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  93. I am getting more and more confident that the 6-10 day forecast will be the nicest stretch we have seen this year. The deterministic runs of the GFS,GEM,and the ECMWF along with their ensemble means all point to a omega block with 500mb trough's over the west and east coast, with strong ridging over the center of the country. Looks like we should see temps low to mid 70's according to the models. However with dew points in the upper 40's to lower 50's I think those temps may be under coked.

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  94. Well this was a suprise! snowing pretty heavily in Woodbury atm.

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  95. It has been snowing moderate to heavy in Apple Valley for the past 30 minutes. Welcome to May!

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  96. Is the above average streak over?

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    Replies
    1. At midnight it will be.

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  97. New thread?

    Hot weather, MSP in ENH risk for Sunday. No snow. Hooray.

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