Sunday, November 5, 2017

Snowstorm Next Weekend?

The NWS discussion alerts to the possibility of snow potential next week. Rather than put words in their mouth, we'll let their words speak for themselves:

Model consistency is still rather poor for next weekend`s storm potential. However, the pattern remains favorable for a trough translating across the northern Rockies, spawning an elongated
area of low pressure over the Plains as strong surface ridging remains on the east coast. Meridional flow in advance of the shallow trough would bring increasing moisture and lift, generating widespread precipitation along the leading edge of the trough. This would be more of an inverted trough snow with a nebulous low pressure center and moderate accumulations, unless the surface cyclone deepens and becomes negatively tilted. If that occurs, a focused area of heavier snow would form on the northern side of the cyclone with significant accumulations. It`s a sensitive pattern with a lot of subtle features coming together which is not as easily predicted as a classic long wave deep trough spawning a single significant cyclone over the southern Plains. Thus, model inconsistency will likely continue for the next day or two with the storm disappearing and reappearing in various models/model runs.

20 comments:

  1. NWS yesterday for this Saturday, "snow likely".....today for Saturday "30% chance of snow and rain".
    Seems like a non-event.

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  2. To answer your title question, no! No snowstorm this weekend, in fact next week we warm up above average, so winter is not here to stay!

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  3. This is my favorite: "It`s a sensitive pattern with a lot of subtle features coming together which is not as easily predicted as a classic long wave deep trough spawning a single significant cyclone over the southern Plains."

    As if any of the storms are easily predicted. The slam dunks, are rarely slam dunks.

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  4. Looks like tonight's snow looks rather impressive versus what models have been showing....

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  5. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 14, 2017 at 12:01 PM

    Ok, I am more than ready for a large snowstorm hit our area. I was encouraged that we had/have some colder air in place and am encouraged that there was some snow cover north of us. These are good ingredients, but we need more to happen. Bring it!! Anything. I. Am. Ready.

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    1. Well sir I believe you'll be waiting awhile, as another below average snow season has begun in the metro!
      October avg. is 0.6"...October 17' we got 0.1"
      November avg is 9.3"...so far a paltry 0.6" and really nothing of any significance on the horizon either for winter storms in the metro thru the end of the month looking at the long range setup.

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    2. Edward, Oct and Nov averages are still skewed by the Halloween Blizzard and - in general - random large storms. If you look at MEDIAN snowfalls for those two months, we aren't too far off. Granted, if we don't get a couple inches in the next two weeks, November will fall below the median as well.

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    3. We appear to be in a rather progressive pattern now with it being cold (20's/low 30's) for 2-3 days and then a day or two with 40's before it gets cold again. Any signs of the cold weather coming to stay anytime soon? Thanks!

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    4. I would think a progressive pattern is a good thing, though. It means we're a way from the long-standing zonal flow.

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  6. Lovin' this dry weather pattern! Bring more of it!

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    1. I agree! Although I did kinda like the balmy, foggy mornings. They were more mysterious and not as nasty cold.

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  7. @AB, one week later no snow has fallen in that week and still nothing on the horizon, even through the first few days of December. So November 17' will join October as a disappointing under preforming snow month. Not the start snow lovers were looking for im sure.

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    1. @Edward, yes it's extremely disappointing with no snow, I know some will say it's not even Thanksgiving yet, but looking at models and seasonal indicators nothing looks imminent the next two weeks which brings us into December. Hearing Christmas music on the radio and seeing Christmas lights up already with no snow on the ground doesn't feel like Christmas at all regardless of how cold it is outside.

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    2. I live 7 miles north of downtown minneapolis and I have recieved about 7 inches of snow so far.

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    3. What does that have to do with anything? I didn't say it hasn't snowed I just said it doesn't feel like it's Christmas/winter season without the snow. In fact I have had 5" here on the west side of the metro early on in November but that's nor here or there because it barely lasted 24 hours, in fact I just traveled from the metro to the Superior,Wisconsin area this past weekend and all there was along the way was dirty piles of snow as we got to Duluth and points east. Pretty sad for late November!

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  8. It's nice to finally see a potential snowstorm on the horizon. My golf course is closed and the Xmas lights are up; I'm ready!

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    1. Too warm!!!, for metro at least, Euro shows highs in the 50's on Monday and Tuesday....potential seems to go to the north

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  9. Any signs of winter setting in for the long haul anytime soon? This pattern of a couple of cold days followed by 2-3 days in the 40's is getting tiring as we enter late November. We need some ice to solidify on the lakes and we need to start getting some white stuff on the ground to stay!

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  10. I'll take this weather as long as we can get it. Brown Christmases are the best kind. Keep the snow at bay! -20s and no snow is better than snow! I hope whenever the snow does come the storm track gets pushed south and we end up with nothing!

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