Sunday, November 5, 2017

Snowstorm Next Weekend?

The NWS discussion alerts to the possibility of snow potential next week. Rather than put words in their mouth, we'll let their words speak for themselves:

Model consistency is still rather poor for next weekend`s storm potential. However, the pattern remains favorable for a trough translating across the northern Rockies, spawning an elongated
area of low pressure over the Plains as strong surface ridging remains on the east coast. Meridional flow in advance of the shallow trough would bring increasing moisture and lift, generating widespread precipitation along the leading edge of the trough. This would be more of an inverted trough snow with a nebulous low pressure center and moderate accumulations, unless the surface cyclone deepens and becomes negatively tilted. If that occurs, a focused area of heavier snow would form on the northern side of the cyclone with significant accumulations. It`s a sensitive pattern with a lot of subtle features coming together which is not as easily predicted as a classic long wave deep trough spawning a single significant cyclone over the southern Plains. Thus, model inconsistency will likely continue for the next day or two with the storm disappearing and reappearing in various models/model runs.

54 comments:

  1. NWS yesterday for this Saturday, "snow likely".....today for Saturday "30% chance of snow and rain".
    Seems like a non-event.

    ReplyDelete
  2. To answer your title question, no! No snowstorm this weekend, in fact next week we warm up above average, so winter is not here to stay!

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is my favorite: "It`s a sensitive pattern with a lot of subtle features coming together which is not as easily predicted as a classic long wave deep trough spawning a single significant cyclone over the southern Plains."

    As if any of the storms are easily predicted. The slam dunks, are rarely slam dunks.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Looks like tonight's snow looks rather impressive versus what models have been showing....

    ReplyDelete
  5. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 14, 2017 at 12:01 PM

    Ok, I am more than ready for a large snowstorm hit our area. I was encouraged that we had/have some colder air in place and am encouraged that there was some snow cover north of us. These are good ingredients, but we need more to happen. Bring it!! Anything. I. Am. Ready.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well sir I believe you'll be waiting awhile, as another below average snow season has begun in the metro!
      October avg. is 0.6"...October 17' we got 0.1"
      November avg is 9.3"...so far a paltry 0.6" and really nothing of any significance on the horizon either for winter storms in the metro thru the end of the month looking at the long range setup.

      Delete
    2. Edward, Oct and Nov averages are still skewed by the Halloween Blizzard and - in general - random large storms. If you look at MEDIAN snowfalls for those two months, we aren't too far off. Granted, if we don't get a couple inches in the next two weeks, November will fall below the median as well.

      Delete
    3. We appear to be in a rather progressive pattern now with it being cold (20's/low 30's) for 2-3 days and then a day or two with 40's before it gets cold again. Any signs of the cold weather coming to stay anytime soon? Thanks!

      Delete
    4. I would think a progressive pattern is a good thing, though. It means we're a way from the long-standing zonal flow.

      Delete
  6. Lovin' this dry weather pattern! Bring more of it!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree! Although I did kinda like the balmy, foggy mornings. They were more mysterious and not as nasty cold.

      Delete
  7. @AB, one week later no snow has fallen in that week and still nothing on the horizon, even through the first few days of December. So November 17' will join October as a disappointing under preforming snow month. Not the start snow lovers were looking for im sure.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @Edward, yes it's extremely disappointing with no snow, I know some will say it's not even Thanksgiving yet, but looking at models and seasonal indicators nothing looks imminent the next two weeks which brings us into December. Hearing Christmas music on the radio and seeing Christmas lights up already with no snow on the ground doesn't feel like Christmas at all regardless of how cold it is outside.

      Delete
    2. I live 7 miles north of downtown minneapolis and I have recieved about 7 inches of snow so far.

      Delete
    3. What does that have to do with anything? I didn't say it hasn't snowed I just said it doesn't feel like it's Christmas/winter season without the snow. In fact I have had 5" here on the west side of the metro early on in November but that's nor here or there because it barely lasted 24 hours, in fact I just traveled from the metro to the Superior,Wisconsin area this past weekend and all there was along the way was dirty piles of snow as we got to Duluth and points east. Pretty sad for late November!

      Delete
  8. It's nice to finally see a potential snowstorm on the horizon. My golf course is closed and the Xmas lights are up; I'm ready!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Too warm!!!, for metro at least, Euro shows highs in the 50's on Monday and Tuesday....potential seems to go to the north

      Delete
  9. Any signs of winter setting in for the long haul anytime soon? This pattern of a couple of cold days followed by 2-3 days in the 40's is getting tiring as we enter late November. We need some ice to solidify on the lakes and we need to start getting some white stuff on the ground to stay!

    ReplyDelete
  10. I'll take this weather as long as we can get it. Brown Christmases are the best kind. Keep the snow at bay! -20s and no snow is better than snow! I hope whenever the snow does come the storm track gets pushed south and we end up with nothing!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bring THAT! My endless yard work thanks this decent weather.

      Delete
    2. Boring weather! La NiƱa disappointing thus for!

      Delete
  11. It's almost December, so what does that mean? Well, in Minnesota anymore it means that it's time for Mother Nature to turn on the heat pump (see the NWS forecast discussion from this morning). Yet another wimpy non-winter setting up??

    ReplyDelete
  12. Love this weather! Great driving conditions. Heating bill not through the roof! Keep it coming!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Bring it!! Great biking weather tonight! Nice weather makes it easier to stay in shape.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I rather enjoy a run at 0 or colder. Makes me feel alive. This is nice though.

      dtodeen

      Delete
  14. The extended forecast looks very dry. Colder. But VERY dry.

    ReplyDelete
  15. So is it too early to cancel winter?, is it looking like a below average snow season again? Yeah it looks colder next week but it's a split flow, with phasing east of our area which means no snow in sight. Calendar may not say winter yet but we know November sees more snow then rain(albeit not lately)

    ReplyDelete
  16. If no big snowstorms come with the cold hopefully we can get a few overachieving clippers with generous snow to water ratio.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Brown Christmas discussions can't be far off, bone dry and Arctic cold thru next week. Another lame winter in the offering?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Nothing but cold dry boring sunshine coming!!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Long range forecasts are showing Old Man Winter bringing snow spurts and very below normal temps starting early next week and stretching on, and on, and on..... it's coming..........

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cold is coming! Not the snow! Snow will be scarce!

      Delete
  20. I'm holding out hope for a little snow maybe more Monday-Monday night!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Check out the NWS graphic on the incoming system for Monday, classic heavy snow track for the metro where the system tracks down into southern Minnesota and up through the Lacrosse area and we're in December and the forecast is for mostly rain with a candy coating of snow at the tail end. Man winters have become lame and tame around MSP!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Low is tracking near MSP or right over. Not a classic pattern at all for MSP. Winter is going to hit hard in the Midwest. Calm down.

      Delete
    2. The graphic yesterday was a classic track. Since then it has changed. Yup that 0.6" were sitting on is not hard at all, already running double digit deficit in snowfall!

      Delete
  22. Hopefully little or no snow falls so after this cold spell things will be able to warm up nicely. Looking at models through most of December it doesn't appear any great snow events will be occurring for southern 1/2 of MN.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hopefully it gets nice and ice cold and stays that way for the remainder of the winter and the storm track sets up to provide the metro area with multiple snowstorms on a regular basis! After all, it is winter!

    ReplyDelete
  24. We set a new record at MSP of 57. Wow. Not sure NWS will even announce this, as they're collectively losing their minds over the potential three snowflakes we might receive.

    Also, is it just me, or is the low-pressure center tracking farther to the north and west than predicted?

    ReplyDelete
  25. We now have a winter weather advisory including the metro area?? NOAA has it on their website: 6 p.m. - 4 a.m., plus the high wind advisory this afternoon. Amazing warmth today!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Huttner:

    "Our drama-free December continues."

    Says the guy who commutes from his bedroom to the kitchen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ha!! (It's also drama-free for the blog founder who lives in New Mexico...)

      Delete
    2. Thought you were in East Bay!

      Delete
    3. I was... until Oct. 2017. In Albuquerque... for now.

      Delete
    4. Neil Young wrote a good song about Albuquerque.

      Country ham, etc.

      Delete
    5. And I gotta ask, have you visited any of the Breaking Bad locations? ABQ is on my list!

      Delete
    6. I'm not a BB fan, but a few locations have been pointed out to me. I find New Mexico -- the hiking, the scenic buttes and plateaus, the open space -- more interesting than Albuquerque, which is sort of a pit. Santa Fe is a totally different story.

      Delete
  27. Dear Santa:
    All I want for this Christmas is a snowstorm....is that too much to ask?
    If it is then please have Bill move back to Minnesota because when he was here the metro actually had snow storms!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll be back for a week in mid-January.... so perhaps a late xmas gift.

      Delete
  28. Potential big snow maker late next week?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Is this going to be a mostly southern/eastern metro storm later this week?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Nice weather conditions of Minnesota.You can check Minnesota Resort where you can book luxurious resort at an affordable price.

    ReplyDelete