Thursday, October 12, 2017

Thoughts on Winter?

It's on the early side for wholesale predictions to come out on the upcoming winter, but it's never too early to start thinking about it (this being Minnesota, after all). What are your bones telling you about the winter of 17-18? Do you have any thoughts to share?

41 comments:

  1. After a dismal El nino focused year, certainly the only way to go is up. Obviously it is way too early to throw out any specifics, but with the way things are developing it would appear that we will not have a repeat of last year. Hoping for the best and can't wait to see this active again!

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  2. On the 10/15 KSTP 10pm news Dave Dahl showed a graphic where he predicted 52" of snow for the metro this year. He said that was based on the average of the recent years where hurricane activity was strong. If someone finds a link to that graphic or video please post it for all posterity.

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    1. Found a link to video; they spelled precip wrong and I can't capture the photo unless I 'take a photo.' Plus it doesn't have a 'year' on it, so he could always claim it was a different winter. I try to follow lore like where the squirrels are building their nests - up high or down low. Most were way up high the polar vortex winter of '13-'14. This year, too, a lot of them are fairly up high while last year's nests were mostly down low/mid-trees. Here's to a decent winter...... looks like some snow is going to mix in with rain in the upcoming week! KSTP link, hoping it's the real deal:http://kstp.com/weather/kstp-chief-meteorologist-dave-dahl-predicts-52-inches-snofall-2017-2018-in-annual-snowometer-prediction/4637051/

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  3. Never too early to talk snow Bill....NWS has snow in the forecast for later this week(Thursday/Friday)!

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  4. Hello, all! Its been a while since I commented here. Probably Six or Seven Years? Not Sure if I will check back regularly, but I would like to mention that I have gone from being an 8th grade weather nut to a college student. I am now a Junior in Meteorology! Certainly it is much more challenging than I thought it would be in eighth grade, but its certainly been fun. (except when Ames got four inches of snow last year, that was terrible!).

    I just wanted to comment here how you guys helped fueled my passion into what is now (hopefully) going to become my profession. Thank You so much, and here is hopes to an active winter!

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    1. Wow, what a cool note! Good luck to you!!

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    2. Thumbs up to you! That's awesome.

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    3. Congrats on picking a great place to get your degree! That's where I started out as a Meteorology major. Ended up with a Music degree, but I digress.

      Go Cyclones!

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  5. What's happening with Friday's system? Forecast seems to keep getting colder and the snow chance seems to be increasing...thoughts?

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    1. That could certainly be a theme this year. So far with these autumn systems model progression closing in on an event seems to ramp up a bit versus last year where things looked good a while out and came to nothing as they approached. As far as Friday, it seems that models are all in agreement on snow, but, as usual the track is a point of disagreement. Obviously the ground is too warm for much to stick around, but what can you expect when snow hits before Halloween?

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  6. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/minneapolis-mn/55427/daily-weather-forecast/24129_pc?day=3.....what do people think about this?....Accu-weather has a probability forecast on snow.

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    1. I like it. I've always been a fan of probabilistic forecasts.

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  7. Plymouth Weather LoverOctober 25, 2017 at 10:17 PM

    It is soooo time for a Novak/Bill video. Measurable snow in October?? C'mon--this hardly ever happens. We went from talking about a possible flake mixing in with rain to minor, slushy spots on the grass to models showing 3-5 inches or more (7 inches close to home in one model)! That deserves some more intense conversation and a video. Bring it!!!!

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  8. Winter Weather Advisory including the Twin Cities metro area 1 a.m. til noon tomorrow! As PWL says: "Bring It!"

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    1. Looks like for Minneapolis but not St. Paul.

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  9. Snowing in St Louis Park since 10pm....early changeover from earlier predictions!

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    1. Pretty sure it was suppose to start as snow and then change over to rain in the east metro as warmer air will move in from the north and then will switch over to snow again. But if that system wiggles just a couple miles further east the whole metro may stay all snow.

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  10. Bad omen for the NWS in Twin Cities. Big BUST to start off the snow season on their snow prediction for the western MSP metro & much of southern MN. I understand where they were coming from, but 3"-6" for MKT, Willmar, STC, & western metro? There were a lot of red flags when that prediction came out last night.

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  11. Granted, the storm is not finished, but I simply can't imagine that 3"+ will accumulate this afternoon west of the I-35W corridor.

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  12. Here's our first video of the year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Y3mpToDuXY

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  13. Around 2.5 inches of snow in Woodbury so far.

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  14. A slushy coating in South Minneapolis as of 3pm. Definitely not advisory level storm.

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  15. 2.5" of snow? I will buy that. My bet is that there are spotty areas (especially in the eastern MSP metro) that received 2"+ of slush. However, the majority of southern MN, incl. much of the MSP metro, is more than disappointed today.

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    1. I am not sure how one can be disappointed about snow in October... Just happy to see snow after the winters we have dealt with recently.

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  16. Tom and Bill, great video as always.

    I agree with Tom about someone getting a major snow storm in the 5-13 day period, especially if the GFS is right in its handling of the tellections.

    The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) will go strongly negative, meaning a strong ridge will develop (or already has) in the area of the Gulf of Alaska. The strong clock wise flow of the ridge will bring warm temps to Alaska while pushing colder air to its east side into southern Canada.

    The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to go slightly negative to strongly negative on most of the GFS Ensemble members. This means the Vortex over the polar region will be weaker than normal, again allowing colder air to bleed south.

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also trending to a negative state, meaning ridging should develop very near Greenland. This ridging will provide the block to interrupt the west to east flow that normally prevails forcing colder further south.

    The Pacific North American oscillation (PNA) is also forecast to go negative as colder air and lower heights are forced from NE Canada southwestward into southern California developing a strong trough oriented from NE to SW. This will also promote development of a South Eastern sub tropical ridge which will block the sw trough from escaping to our south.

    Therefore as the through kicks out of the sw, a surface system should develop on the lee side of the Rockies and travel the baroclinic zone between the western trough and se ridge. Cold enough air should be in place to north and north west of the surface low allowing for snow to develop.

    Its to early to say if the storm track will allow snow for us or to our west and northwest, however its going to be fun to watch as it unfolds.

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  17. I guess I’m still not sure why you haven’t migrated to a better social media platform. Blogger is about as useless as anything still dated 2001.

    Crappy cut and pasting links, no ability to add photos, inability to control dialogue. Just this morning I had a great look at the cut off line from snow to green grass, but can’t post a photo to show anyone. From Como Park to East of 35E it was white to green. 2 miles. Pretty cool, right.

    I know the lugdites complain about Facebook groups, justifiably understandable, but come on. Blogger is a dead useless platform.

    Thanks, dtodeen

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    1. I hear ya. The problem, at least the last time this was brought up, is that some of the best contributors weren't on Facebook. So it's somewhat of a quandary. Maybe I'll do another checkin with the group on this...

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    2. Maybe try using reddit?

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  18. I'm kind of confused. In Bill/Novak's video and @randyinchamplin's remarks above they both hinted at cold and major snow potential nearby in the long range, I believe one of them said 7-10 days the other 5-13. Well the NWS in their discussion this morning is hinting at 60's for next Sunday and Paul Douglas mentioned 50's. I guess that's the fun of weather 4 sources and 2 camps with totally different outlooks.

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  19. Brian,
    Sure, there may be a brief warm-up into the 50s/60s, but the general pattern is for colder than average temps. This would set the stage for potential snow during the first half of NOV. Keep in mind that the average high temp this time of year is around 50°. So, with afternoon temps stuck in the 30s/40s, that is relatively cold.

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  20. Latest 4k NAM model is looking more promising for accumulating snow for MSP. Trending colder with pretty much every run for the past day or so.

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  21. Interesting enough as the snow is on top of is, forecast falls apart big time. Is the trend setting up again this season?

    dtodeen

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    1. I do not believe that this year will be nearly as miserable as last year if you like snow. Although it appears this event decided to take a last minute turn, you have to remember that we are barely in a time where snow even falls most years. This year, as opposed to last, there is already a snowpack ahead of what we experienced last year in both Alaska and Canada and even some of Minnesota. Last year this did not exist and therefore thermal issues became a prominent issue as storms did not have a cold reservoir to tap into and in turn things stayed warmer. And, as we all know too well, warm = no snow. This is just one of many reasons that I personally think can justify a winter that looks quite a bit different than last; hopefully snowier!

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  22. Beautiful snow falling in Maple Grove - looks like we've got almost an inch on our deck now!

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  23. Somewhat unexpected, over 3" of wet-stick-to-everything-pretty snow in Golden Valley!

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  24. These type of mid-level, intense forcing events are so fun to watch unfold. Of course, they are extremely frustrating to 4cast. It is crazy how only a few miles can make a world of a difference in these scenarios.

    Think about it, 3"-4"+ in northern Hennepin county with barely a coating in southern Hennepin? How can someone predict that without being called a nut job the night before?

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  25. 3.5 inches here in Plymouth. A lot has melted,compacted.

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  26. Maybe a slushy inch in south minneapolis. Woke up this morning with 100% of it melted.

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  27. Potential snow system on Saturday,November 11 keeps popping up on the models....thoughts anybody?

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    1. It looks like someone will get snow next weekend, too early to know where just yet. and latest GFS model came in warmer.. so only time will tell.

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    2. Models are shaky at best trying to work with this system right now. One run it is there, the next it is not, and then it is back. Will have to wait for them to grasp it a bit better.

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