Sunday, April 7, 2019

One Last Snowstorm In the Cards?

The latest weather models (as of late Saturday night) seem to suggest that an "interesting" event may be shaping up for next week. Snow lovers want one last taste. Others, not so much. Is an April snowstorm in the cards?

241 comments:

  1. PWL will soil his pants when he reads the NWS discussion this morning. The current timing if it happens is almost one year from the monster snowstorm last April which brought 22” to Maple Grove and 15” to the airport.

    Novak has us in the 70s Monday with a potential 80 somewhere.

    Only in Minnesota.

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  2. Well I soiled my pants reading that! Seems to me if current models/thinking hold two consecutive years with blizzard warnings in April. Why not! Bill seems like you need to reach out to our good friend Dr Novak, a video is looking highly likely.

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  3. Here we go! Novak raised the impact into the moderate zone for the storm, says mostly snow for MSP!!

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  4. Holy sh*t 12z 33” GFS!!!
    Even if we get half of that, holy sh*t!

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  5. Euro is also showing crazy amounts (19”). Just doesn’t seem possible two years in a row! Just got the golf clubs out.

    Storm doesn’t hit the west coast until late Monday - so plenty of time for change.

    Sorry PWL. I’m done with snow!

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  6. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 7, 2019 at 1:14 PM

    All of the models are lining up. As are my depends laid out in a row for each day this week--all lined up.

    This could be truly historic having two April storms with massive amounts of snow two years in a row!

    Oh My Goodness. Bring it!!! Keep bringin' it!!!!

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  7. Anybody know a good place where I can get some crow? PWL and I have a friend in search of some, enjoy Mr Anonymous enjoy!

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  8. Just your casual 14”-24” forecasted on my phone app!

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  9. Looking at the latest, I fully expect winter storm watches by tomorrow evening if not Tuesday morning.

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  10. Lucky NCAA visitors 'only seeing rain, gloom, and decent temps' for a major portion of their visit. The good stuff comes after everyone leaves town. Bring it!

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  11. KSTP Jonathan Yuhas:
    -Thursday could easily be a school day
    -Snow could exceed 12”
    -Heavy snow potential
    -Whiteout conditions

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  12. Latest 18z NAM shows a foot of snow for MSP land and that’s only for part of the event as this model is only an 84 hour model.

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  13. I am more stunned with how long it will be snowing for more than anything. Starting in the afternoon Wednesday and wrapping up in the early afternoon on Friday? That is crazy!

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  14. And temps look trending downward. Brrrrrrrr. High 60's tomorrow and then 20's later this week onTh/Fri/Sat nights.

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  16. Mr. Novak posted a video on his FaceBook site.

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  17. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 7, 2019 at 9:49 PM

    Great video Novak. And really well done as always. Bring it!

    Can hardly handle myself.

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  18. Every time I look the temperatures for Wednesday Thursday and Friday keep getting colder and colder! I have a feeling this will be a strictly snow event, possibly mixed with rain at the start, but the majority will fall as snow!

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  19. Amazingly the 00Z GFS/FV3 models still going large....2-3ft of snow in southern Minnesota including MSP. We are just about inside 60 hours from this storm and people need to start taking it seriously, has potential to be more historic then last April!

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  20. Jonathan Yuhas over at KSTP said:
    “ This storm is likely to break snowfall records Wednesday, Thursday and Friday”....the records for each of those days are right around 6”, which means Yuhas is hinting at at least 18” will fall. WOW!

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  21. This could mean TWO more snow days for some school districts. Amazing. These totals will push us where on the record winter snow total chart? Time will tell. Exciting!!

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  22. The GFS and NAM both went nuts on QPF before the last storm and then backed down as it got closer. Just can’t believe their totals of 3”+. Granted if the thing stays a slow mover and the dynamics hold on that long something crazy could happen.

    Novak has had a pretty solid year and his video talked about how impressive the setup is. I see that watches are now posted in western MN and the NWS has taken their first shot for accumulation Wednesday night.

    For some reason it (perhaps disbelief) if feels like totals will drop once this hits land. I’m not saying the B word, just saying the North American models are overly optimistic.

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    1. They already have a bit according to some sources that are seeing a rain start. As far as school districts go, we can't take any more snow days! The end of the year is approaching and there is nowhere to make them up. The legislature may have passed a law, but most districts have their own internal policies + contractual agreements that they plan to follow.

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  23. Ok so the 12z models are out, we are now 48 hours from the onset of the storm when most meteorologists start trusting what the models are saying and showing. They are still showing a large pile of snow for the MSP area, consistently 12+” but can someone with a higher weather IQ then me tell me the difference between the GFS and GFS-FV3? Perhaps Novak who is our resident meteorologist? The GFS shows 11.7” but the FV3 shows 27.3” that’s a big difference so that’s why I’m intrigued to find out the difference in the models and which one would be more accurate.

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  24. Looks like the low is slowly ticking south!

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  25. The FV3 is the model that will be replacing the current GFS. It was slated to go operational March 20, but that postponed because of “two issues” found during testing. Its forecasts for snow depth were “unrealistically high” and the model exhibited a “a cold bias in the lower atmosphere,” a memo from the Weather Service said. These issues were independently identified by private-sector forecasters and university researchers, and reported by the Capital Weather Gang in early February. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/26/noaa-delays-launch-next-generation-weather-forecast-model-names-new-acting-head/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.aa3e0955c398

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  26. 12z Canadian just laid out 2ft at MSP, I really don’t see a way MSP receives less then foot with this system. Models have been consistent for days now!

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    1. We have seen this before; consistency for days until showtime, then bust!

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    2. Right just like last April when 15-20” fell on the metro, that was a bust in your mind? You don’t happen to be “Mr Accumulating snow is over” Anonymous are you, if you are your crow stew is warming up ready for you as early as Wednesday but definitely on Thursday!

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    3. Typically I would agree, but we saw a similar set up in early March and it turned into mostly rain. I will stay aware of current forecasts, but I’m not going to buy in fully until it actually happens.

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    4. Indeed, all snow to nothing!

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  27. GAME ON!
    Winter Storm Watch issued
    Wednesday night thru Friday afternoon

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  28. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 8, 2019 at 5:02 PM

    Here we go! Winter Storm Watch in place. Everything is playing out really nicely--perfect for snow lovers!! I can't wait for Novak's next video. Bring it!

    One interesting thing: Dave Dahl, who is the one usually on the upper end of snow totals, has downplayed this a notch. He is pointing out how thunderstorms in Iowa could impact the snow amounts here (which is always the case in large spring storms), but he is usually not the one to point this out. Just very interesting to me.

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  29. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 8, 2019 at 5:06 PM

    Now, I want to hear some predictions:

    Novak:
    Bill:
    Big Daddy:
    Randy:
    Ed:
    DysonGuy:
    WeatherGeek:
    Tim:
    Sam:
    NotPaulDouglas:
    Anyone Else?????

    Bring the predictions! Let's have fun with this.

    My prediction is yet to come--maybe later tonight, but for sure sometime tomorrow.

    Bring it!

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    1. I'll say 6.5" of snow will fall, but the snow depth will never be more than 3" at any time during the storm. For you, I hope I'm wrong!

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    2. Is this for MSP Int'l observation?

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  30. Ian played up the warm temps after the 'quick hitter' moves through just now.... I like the chart, PWL. Can't wait to see it fill in. I'm not ready to put out numbers, yet, esp. since I just love this blog from afar and have no training like Novak and others do. But I'm excited about the potential and about adding it to the many inches we have already had this winter. Woooo hoooooo. BRING IT.

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  31. Let's have Bill weigh in from New Mexico with a snow total prediction, too! :+) 67.3 inches at the airport so far this snow season. NOAA just cranked out insane totals: 7-15 inches and 50 mph winds. Let's wait a day to see how it shapes up.

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  32. PWL a bit too early for me to take my uneducated guess. Would like to see one more Euro run first. In the NWS watch they mentioned winds up to 50 MPH. That will cause a mess everywhere and make for very dangerous driving. Wow.

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  33. Ian L on Fox9 is talking '3 inches of precip' but NO snow totals as of yet. Time stamp 5:48 p.m. Mon/Apr 8 news

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  34. Doing a video with Dr. Novak at 7. Send any questions.

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    1. My question - what will be causing the high winds Thursday (50 MPH) and do we have a chance of thunder snow?

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  35. Here is a cool link about historic April snowstorms in MN. And looking forward to the video, Bill and Novak Weather.
    https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/13_april_snow_records.html

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  36. Novak question:
    - When does snow start in MSP
    - Is it an all snow event in MSP
    - In his opinion do we exceed the 15.7 total from last April and in essence have a new record
    -Can we turn the page on winter after this storm or does the pattern produce any more snow

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  37. Latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbY6APeUjNA&feature=youtu.be

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  38. Dave Dahl predicted 4-6 for most of the metro at 6:30. He had a little more south.

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    1. Wow! Shocking prediction given the guidance numbers.

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  39. Great video. The love fest, the dog, the phone, the tight gradient, the rationale of warmer ground and maybe why Dave Dahl is only saying about 'six inches' because of compaction, the models..... I'm learning. Thanks again for sharing your expertise Novak Weather and thanks to Bill for the blog. Again, great video.

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    1. I watched Dahl and he was going with the Iowa storms taking moisture away. Wish I had the picture of his map. I’ll give him credit for sticking his nose out there, he is always the wild card.

      Belinda on KARE has 8”+
      WCCO won’t nail a number down but hinted around 10”

      Everyone but Dahl is talking about the models. Curious to see the final predictions tomorrow night.

      Enjoyed the video Bill and Tom. Thanks

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  40. noaa is still cranking out 10-16 inches not even including Th evening. They need to watch this video!!!!!!!

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  41. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 8, 2019 at 10:58 PM

    I don’t like the new gfs that is coming down right now. Let’s it is a one run anomaly as it has shifted north with the heaviest axis of snow. Cmon. Bring it!

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  42. I'm waiting until the Euro model comes out before I start worrying.

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  43. I will work on my forecast for release tomorrow night. One thing that's starting to worry me is the low level moisture transport that typically resides near the low level jet found around the 850mb level. If that shift's off to the east Thursday night the system could weaken much sooner than expected.

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  44. Latest 00z models bring anywhere from 18-24" across the heart of the metro!
    Dave Dahl will be on a island by himself, but if hes right he will be an hero.

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  45. NWS is still going with 8-14" this morning..... with a whole lot of slop/sleet/rain mixed in amongst the inches. I agree with Ed re: Dave Dahl! Can't wait to see the t.v. mets predictions tonight.

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  46. Looks like we’re starting to bust folks, where it once was a all snow event has become a metro slopfest with a slew of mixed precipitation, two new words that snow lovers(including PWL) will come to hate....WARM NOSE!

    Numbers are coming down in and around the metro, Novak did say in answering a question in his video that it would be a mainly snow event in MSP(except for a mix of rain in the beginning)looks like that’s a changing! Dave Dahl looking like the hero so far.

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  47. My Wx Underground point forecast for Long Lake area went up by about 6” overnight and now am in the 12-21” range. NWS still has 9-17” through Thursday night.

    No need to drop the B-word yet!

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  48. Yesterday was amazing. Dancing for all rain.

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  49. Mike Lynch at 'cco is saying 4-8" and then all the rest of the slop that falls as slop and not as snow. "we shall see"

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    1. He also said that NW of the metro 12-20"...... and the blizzard conditions with those high winds.

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    2. I like it. Seriously. I'm all for the big snowstorms when they're supposed to hit, but enough with the winter and messing with school schedules and crappy roads all that. Time to move on to the type of weather we had yesterday.

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  50. Oh boy PWL won’t be happy, things are a changing, now Novak is talking more ice/mix for metro not pure snow! Sorry PWL!

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  51. Historic overhyped storm to hit MSP with rain and sleet!

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  52. Barring changes seems this one will be like the early March event; cold core in western/northern MN means all snow there and MSP south gets the mix. Unfortunate as big snows are fun but less snow gets us back to warmer spring again. Torn here!

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  53. Novak's 11 a.m. travel impact map on FB today has the storm nudging north and an ice line slicing right through the metro. Hard to call re: snow v ice.

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  54. Snowfall going down, spring is in sight!

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  55. EURO says what storm and everything "good" goes north. Too predictable.

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  56. Update....

    My Wx Underground point forecast for Long Lake area went up again and now am in the 14-24” range. NWS still has 9-15” hrough Thursday night.

    Still No need to drop the B-word yet!

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  57. Eh we seriously need a way where we can remove individuals who come in here who are trying to start things.. I mean they bring nothing to the table.

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    1. Davin, can you clarify/explain a bit more? Which people are you referring to? Thanks.

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    2. Yes, what people and starting what?

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    3. Apparently stating observed trends is considered bad. Go figure.

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  58. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 9, 2019 at 6:09 PM

    We need to remember that this is the beauty of weather--we predict it, discuss it, and have fun watching what will happen. If we knew what was going to happen each and every day (or even well in advance), it would be a pretty boring life and we weather enthusiasts would have a nothing to discuss as it involves our passion for weather! This is why we love it--we don't know for sure how things will play out, but we love to talk, debate, and forecast. I LOVE that. Let's keep that going and see how this monster storm (no matter if it is snow, rain, snow/rain) plays out. Fun times!!

    Bring it!!

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  59. Dahl is at 3-6 now. Gotta give him credit for holding steady. 12Z Euro still had around 10” but the NAM and GFS are moving warmer air in. NAM Hi-res has part of it now and it shows the warmer air.

    We have to remember that a 75 mile change in track either way is all it takes. The gradient is sooo tight on this and SD is getting nailed hard. We still may not be out of the woods if we get ice instead of snow. QPF is still close to 2”.

    I’m with PWL, this is fun to track. Plus, there may be a fire sale on Depends :)

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    1. Dahl does have most of the NW metro at 6-8. Kare 11 has a broad 6-12 for most of the metro right now. Not getting more specific just yet. Both were clear that a mix was going to keep totals down. Both were confident in 12-18+ for western MN.

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  60. Gosh. Dave Dahl reduced his totals to 1-2" south metro; 3-5" north metro because our temps are trending warm side again. Ian Leonard: "don't lock into the hype you find online," but I don't see it as HYPE, I see it as POTENTIAL. And Ian still says 2-3 inches (yes inches of PRECIP meaning rain/sleet/snow mix) and that is a lot of water to add to already swollen waterways. I agree with you PWL. Nothing wrong with us getting giddy with the possibilities and potentials as we learn/discuss/ etc. I couldn't catch everyone else's predictions on the news tonight. As I keep saying, 'time will tell' and I guess 'temps will tell' as well in terms of what we get out of those 2 to 3 inches of precip.

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  61. Novak just posted his snow totals. He shows the surface low tracking further north than original. That helps explain the forecast changes. The beauty of it is the thing can still move off path either way and really mess with the forecast. Good stuff

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  62. You guys want a repeat of last year so bad. You sound pathitic. How sad. Get real. Little snow. You damage the credibility of this site with wishful thinking. All the regulars want people to follow them so they sensetialize the storm. You all ought to be ashamed.

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    1. I am not ashamed. I have a healthy respect for weather. Many people were surprised by last year's April surprise. There is nothing wrong with wanting big storms and watching them take shape. What is your problem? Why do you write so negatively and attack us? Why do you say we 'ought to be ashamed'????? Sometimes the storms truly do leave a healthy dose of snow in the metro area. Sheesh.

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  63. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 9, 2019 at 7:39 PM

    Oh Aaa. We don’t know how much snow yet. We were all quoting models. It is the data we have. No shame in that. Some hope for more than less (me) but being excited is not sensetionalizing. I can say with clarity: I am not ashamed. Bring it!

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  64. Sorry PWL. People actually make decisions based on this site. If Bill says this is just for fun. Great. Say whatever crap you want. But if you want to people to come here for real info then everyone who posts has a responsibility. I am calling every regular out and Billl Take responibility for your post or say I am a weather nerd who likes to post crap and hope it comes true. I posted last year when one of the idiot regulars said we would get 6 to 20 inches of snow. That is not a forecast. Man up. Randy in Chaplin is a prime example.

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    1. I don't know who you are Aaa or have long you've been on the scene. I have no problem with people quoting models to discuss. If you don't like the other comments, better to say nothing.

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    2. Sorry Bill, I like this site. But are you a credibitle site to come to for real weather information or are you a host for every extream opinion. If you see some value in this site you better define what you want to to be.

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    3. For anyone around for awhile (read long time, posted only recently) this has always been fun place for those interested in weather, especially winter weather, to gather and discuss said weather. It's never been advertised as a replacement for the NWS or other accredited forecasters so there is no harm in both excitement for an upcoming event or doubts regarding upcoming events.

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    4. And this is a credible site to post information, to learn from Novak's and Bill's videos, to see what other local meteorologists are posting/figuring out.... and yes, to make plans. It is better to know it is coming than to be oblivious. I will admit my dad always said, 'I'll believe it when I see it,' but there is nothing wrong with this site except for the negativity and 'shaming' that some people throw at each other. Even the local meteorologists have been 'all over the place' with this storm. There are different models and one can never totally predict what will happen. But there is potential, and that is what makes it exciting. We don't all stay home, but we prepare as we go about our business. And as the storm wobbles and throws out huge snow totals and blizzard conditions northwest of the metro, it is good to give a heads up.

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  65. That is why I still wish this site would migrate to FB. Then we would know who everybody is. There could be multiple anonymous people who are one in the same. But I look forward to seeing how this storm plays out statewide/in Iowa/WI.

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    1. I've always contemplated that... but some of the bigger contributors to the site aren't on Facebook. I just don't know if everyone would come over.

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  66. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 9, 2019 at 9:23 PM

    Here we go! 24 hours out and my big screen window will be the source of my viewing party with depends in hand and dancing shoes on foot. This should be quite a show to watch. Bring it!!

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  67. Starting tomorrow into Thursday it's going to be absolute hell for weather forecasters. I personally think we could have more snow in MSP than what models such as the Euro are saying. Personally 6-10 seems like a good bet, my reasoning has a lot to do with dynamic cooling. We are going to have thunderstorms coming up from Nebraska and Iowa throughout the day Thursday and if you don't think for a moment that snowfall rates upto 3 inches an hour can't cool the atmosphere down (even if its brief). Especially during the heavier bands of snow you are out of your mind.

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  68. My little noaa radio keeps repeating that the mock tornado warning/siren drills are cancelled for Th/Fri (Friday was the make-up day) with no reason why, but I'd expect it is because of the impending storm. I wager it would be confusing to hear sirens in the middle of a downpour of snowmageddon in some parts. The forecast for the metro hasn't changed much from last night. The watch/wait continues. The NWS map of watches and warnings is full of impressive colors.

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  69. WWA just issued for the metro early this morning. We get a taste of it all.

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  70. Yah, this will be interesting to watch today.

    Also, what is a good website to look at daily average high and low temperatures in the Twin Cities?

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    1. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/listings.html

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    2. That info is very interesting! However, I'm looking for something that will tell me what today's average high and low temperature is for MSP. Anyone have a lead?

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  71. Winter Weather Advisory is a downgrade from Winter Storm Watch. So maybe not as much snow. Good. My daughter has already missed too much school this year.

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  72. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 10, 2019 at 8:24 AM

    Ok. Time to make a prediction. I say Plymouth will get 10.5 inches. I say the official at the airport will be 7.8.

    Bring it!!!

    Others?

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    1. I forgot to see/get in on this and I would be cheating now... but I love how the WWA went to WSW very quickly today, plus Novak's second video on FB... I'd say you are right on for Plymouth!!!! Bring it INDEED. :+)

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  73. I say 3.8 at the airport.

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  74. My prediction is 6-10”....that includes MSP!

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    1. Excellent numbers! Novak posted a second video on FB and is doing a live briefing there tonight at 7 p.m.

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  75. I would be very surprised if MSP reported anything over 3 inches. This storm is a huge bust.

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    1. Mother Nature says otherwise. That's why the blog is fun minus the bickering. This storm does not appear to be a bust. And NOBODY knows for sure what the weather will do until it's done doing it. :+)

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  76. 8” MSP
    AH yes the bust Anonymous is out....are you by chance the same anonymous who said “no more accumulating snow for the metro”? 3” is accumulating snow last I checked. I’m serving crow for dinner tonight!

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    1. No, I am not. But I am also sensible enough to not wishcast. Bring on spring!

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    2. It's me actually and we will see.
      First of all I said significant accumulation is done qualified by at or above 3", and I am very confident it will not accumulate 3"+ at the airport.
      So you can take your crow, stuff it with your arrogance and insults to make it more delicious and stick it up your a**.
      I lost my patience with you.
      I officially request that Bill bans you from posting on this blog.
      All you do is insult people.

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  77. 4.5 at MSP
    9.5 in Long Lake

    Hoping for no ice! That will just ramp up the danger.

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  78. Light snow starting in Faribault. Guessing here we get 2.5 total with a "fun" glazing of ice and over an inch of rain. For MSP I'll guess 3.2 inches.

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  79. I like how confidence has never been great for MSP getting giant amounts, everybody's been saying for days that it was definitely possible but far from likely... and then when it's apparent MSP will have p-type issues the anonymous "bust" trolls start posting.

    The storm isn't a "bust" because the low track ended up being too far north for dumping on MSP. It's still one hell of a spring storm.

    The world doesn't revolve around you and your backyard.

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    1. Agreed. NWS was putting out insanely high totals many days ago. I remember writing about it on the blog previous to this one. Then people backed off, though Novak on the video #1 and his FB page said it was 'too early' back then to spit out any numbers. NWS kept high temps in the mix for the metro, but this morning it was so cold out there... plus NWS and many local mets saying today would be quiet with not much happening til late today/tonight... so surprise, surprise, surprise. I get immense amounts of teasing from friends/fam because I always cry 'wolf' with weather, but for today, nobody is laughing at me for once. I'm definitely tuning in to Novak on FB at 7 tonight for the next update and can't wait to see what comes prior to then in the metro. Yes, this is one big spring storm.

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  80. I'm shocked that KSTP gal & KMSP guy are still downplaying the snow amounts with this storm during their 11am broadcasts. Wondering how they are going spin the 6"-8"+ that falls by tomorrow noon even in the core metro.

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  81. Latest HRRR paints 10"+ across much of the southern MSP metro by sunrise. The band you see on radar means serious business.

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    1. Thanks, I hate it.

      I was hoping the south metro could sneak by this one with only a few inches... don't think that's going to be the case.

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  82. The mid-level forcing with this frontogenic band is truly impressive. Dynamic cooling is going to take over during the next 12 to 24 hours. There will be a lot of shocked people when all is said & done.

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  83. I am in Lakeville with snow on our doorstep. It is 29 degrees. 34 or 35 just north of us. This storm is bringing its own cold air.

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  84. Snow started in Long Lake area and my thermometer reads 34.9 degrees. Cool air is definitely being hauled down and the snow is not melting on contact either.

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  85. NICE SECOND VIDEO ON FB, Mr. Novak. Just watched and shared it there. Wowzers.

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  86. Mr. Novak also says he will have a live weather update around 7 p.m. tonight on FB for those of you who are on FB. It is now pouring snow in St. Louis Park.

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  87. Downtown upgraded to winter storm warning. 8-14"

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    1. You beat me to it. Yup. That WWA didn't last too long today, did it?!?

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  88. The original forecast high for today was 41. That was a MF-ing fantasy.

    You want a bust? There's your bust.

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  89. thanks for the video Tom, storm is ramping up big time, NWS upgraded to winter storm warning and from the sounds of Novaks video it could surprise many folks. been snowing heavily in mankato since around 830am

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  90. Thought it might be time to chime in. Looks like some serious fun about to go down. Incredible amounts of precip in this thing. Be careful shoveling all this heart attack snow. Keep dancing PWL!

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  91. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 10, 2019 at 1:10 PM

    This is awesome!!! I love appetizers.

    Dancing and using up my depends.

    Bring it!!!!

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    1. Your dancing is definitely paying off today. As you always say, 'Bring it!'

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  92. Measured 5.5 inches in Faribault so far. I-35 closed southbound through town due to multiple accidents. Feels like a return to February.

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  93. It is "pouring" snow in Eden Prairie right now.

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  94. And what was Ian's quote yesterday: something about 'don't buy the hype' about the forecast. That is why it is good to check multiple sources and not just rely on one person/one outlet/one source....... unless it's Novak because his batting average is very, very high.

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  95. I am actually thinking about DDahl. The only time he did not ‘hype’ amounts, he’s getting burnt big time :)

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    1. Good point. I am definitely going to tune in and see his updates later today. Just went out to move the snow around. It is so heavy, definitely heart-attack heavy with slush/high water content under it.

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    2. Truly interesting. Dave Dahl has never been a "play it down" kind of guy.

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  96. Wow. Quite the change and fascinating what happened. Weather in Minnesota.

    I’m not going to rip any of the forecasters. Dahl had his reasons as did Leonard. We also had some guy here yesterday ripping Bill since people were talking high totals.

    Just more Minnesota weather humble pie. All of the models were leaning to warm and lower snowfalls until the 12Z runs today. I’ll be curious to see how far off the original track this thing ends up.

    This is why I love this site. Looking forward to Novak at 7 PM.

    Also saw an Amazon truck full of Depends heading somewhere in town.

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    1. I don't think so, Joel. LOL "Not Paul Douglas" re: the Amazon truck. Yes. I hope I don't come off as ripping anyone apart in their forecasts. If so, I do apologize. The range in comments from the t.v. gurus makes it really hard to know what to do. I mean, yesterday a lot were saying that 'nothing is going to happen in the metro til around 4 p.m.' I know people who didn't even take snow gear to work with them today because of the forecasts, thinking it would all come late today/tonight and tomorrow. It is pretty, for now.

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  97. Something for you all to look at is the 0Z Nam run last night and look where it put the freezing rain line at 02Z Tonight compared to today's 18Z run. A sizeable shift to the south.

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    1. Interesting. I wonder why NWS waited so long, then, to change from WWA to WSWarning. Thanks for that info since I do not watch/have access to the model forecasts that many on the blog do.

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    2. If you want you can check out "pivotal weather" to get most of the models in detail, besides the Euro which is behind a pay wall as far as I know. Typically the NAM can be quite the wildcard, so I'm guessing that might have played into it.

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    3. The NAM was nuts earlier in the week and then started to show the warm push. Yesterday the Euro moved into alignment so I thought that was that. I am curious how the main event will play out.

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  98. It looks like this wave will push through in the next couple of hours without more building in soon.

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  99. The kvetching worked again :) like way back on January 30th when I posted that the Twin Cities was 'a disgrace for snow lovers'.
    And it ushered in the February and early March we all remember.

    So after a somewhat disappointing 2nd half of March I started kvetching and annoying you all that ' we were done with accumulating snow of more than 3 inches' etc, etc, etc.
    And guess what?
    it worked again. As a snow lover to the same level of PWL (I moved to MN because of snow) I cannot be happier.
    And yes @Tim serve crow to me as much as you want (even a triple portion). If it makes it snow, I'll take it all the time.

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  100. Dave Dahl says that 'most of the snow is done' ???? even though his pictures online don't show that.... I am so confused. And he says we have only gotten 2-3" in the metro plus another 2-3 tonight and that's basically 'it.' Hmmmm. I guess he is sticking with his lower snow totals. But I look outside and see differently. Like I say, I'm confused.

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  101. Absolutely astonished that Dahl is downplaying everything. We could easily get another 4"-8"+ of snow across the MSP metro with the next surge of energy. Plus, we have a WSWarning in place? WTH?

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    1. Thank you for your thoughts. I wrote down his totals so as not to make it up. Glad you weighed in. Planning to catch you on FB tonight. Thank you for your work on all these winter forecasts. You do such an excellent job.

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  102. It is as though D.D. doesn't understand dynamic cooling.

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    1. Now that is a debate I'd like to see you both have with a radar in between you. :+)

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    2. ohhh, I'd pay money to see that!

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    3. What do you expect from a tv personality? He also believes climate change is a political theory made up by grant-hungry scientists!

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  103. Yeah I don't know what Dahl is saying. Just measured the snow depth from my deck and have already received 5.5 inches of snow.

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    1. Just watched Belinda on NBC who says temps are going to go back and forth so 6-12 metro. I kind of smiled when she said, 'This is exactly what's going to happen,' and I'm thinking, 'But the computers put out different models,' .... so she is saying that tomorrow is a mixed bag of rain, sleet and snow. Mr. Chris S. on CBS says 8-12 inches metro. And again, the spread due to warming. I couldn't catch KMSP. Time to go shovel. Oh: CBS had an 'official' reading of 4.0 at Chan, 3" Minnetonka. But I believe you, Davin. What part of town are you in? Sorry if I missed it earlier.

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    2. I live in Woodbury, and just checked again now have around 6 inches flat. With slightly less on grassy surfaces around 5.5 inches or so.

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  104. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 10, 2019 at 6:01 PM

    Am loving see this play out! Let's play, baby!

    Bring it!!

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  105. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 10, 2019 at 6:08 PM

    What time is the next wave (the main event) coming??

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    1. Novak might say on his FB live video around 7 p.m. I'm planning on watching. Hopefully he will post something here, too.

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  106. So, if its shifting south where does that leave the Brainerd lakes area??? Are we still going to get something?

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  107. 4” Golden Valley @ 6:15pm

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  108. Novak is “live” on Facebook!

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  109. Have a good evening everyone. I'll be listening for some 'thundersnow,' and wondering what we wake up to here in the metro area. Stay safe. Looks like there were lots of accidents on roads today.

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  110. P.S. NWS snow totals through 7 p.m. today: MSP airport: 4.3 inches. Chanhassen: 5.5.

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  111. Quite the complex heading out of Sioux City and Omaha. The fun night that Novak talked about at 7 is on its way. Should be interesting - especially for the morning commute in the Metro.

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  112. The radar is really starting to light up to our south! Lots of thunderstorms and ample amount of moisture. Wouldn't be surprised to wake up with over a foot of snow on the ground (Including what fell earlier).

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  113. Holy shit!!!...sorry for cursing, but I just looked at the radar, if that stuff just south of the metro moving slowly north is snow we are about to be clobbered! If it comes in as rain/sleet then it’s going to be one icy messy commute.

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  114. The winds are absolutely insane! and snow starting within minutes!

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  115. Just saw lightning and heard the clap of thunder for my first Thundersnow experience. Snowing hard in Faribault, what a sight and sound.

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  116. At least half a dozen rounds of lightning and thunder so far in northfield. Very heavy snow falling with strong winds. Jim Cantore would be doing back flips if he were here!

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  117. Clap of thunder 3:30am St Louis Park.....snowing very heavily!

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    1. I missed it! I cannot even see out of any of my house windows this morning. I see Minnetonka schools are closed, but I do not see other metro closings..... yet. I expect more to come if I can't even see and from what MNPLOWCO reports below. Good luck to everybody today.

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  118. 25 mph on 494 1/2 hour ago. White out
    Plowed but very greasy. Just plain dangerous. Most commercial lots are compacted heavily. Like pushing Play-Doh.

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  119. Sleet has arrived in Eden Prairie.
    Great.....

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    1. Thanks for your updates. Snow is plastered to every window of my home, so I cannot even see outside to figure out how bad it is. My weather radio says heavy snow is falling in the metro. I can sure hear the winds. And still hoping the power grid hangs in there.

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    2. Power is out in my apartment building.

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    3. Oh noooooo . That is sad to hear. If I knew where you lived, I would check how long because XCel has maps that tell what's going on. That is one of my biggest fears with these winds and ice..... losing the power grid. There goes everything, including heat. I pray it comes back soon. Good luck, Joel. I do see 36 outage area reports on the MSP Xcel map.

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    4. Our building has a boiler and radiator heat, so that’s not been a problem. But I have to shower in the dark this morning.

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  120. Radar looks nothing like what was anticipated. Is the dry tongue coming into southern Minnesota?

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    1. 'cco says there is a break coming, but much more after that. What a storm.

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  121. Lots of stuff in SD starting to come into SW MN. That seems to be what is supposed to turn into rain eventually. What a crazy storm.

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    1. Yep. Sounds 'on schedule.' We are getting a break in the metro and then more comes in. Thanks for the update.

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  122. 7.1 inches in Richfield per one trained observer.

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  123. 243 strikes of lightning last night detected near my home in Rochester. Sounded like typical spring thunderstorms last night around 2:30AM.

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  124. Number is going up and checking radar I see why, more t-storms moving towards Rochester. Also noticing there is meso cyclone intensity (6 out of 25 from my SCIT Pro app). Strong storm indeed.

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  125. A lot of forecasters fooled with this one! Looks like we’re going into a pretty long dry slot now, the dreaded dry tongue. But today was suppose to be the significant precip day, remember that? Yesterday we got that heavy on slaught of snow when it was suppose to miss the metro early in the afternoon. MSP is up to 8” of snow, I don’t believe anyone but Novak had MSP getting that(originally he had MSP at 5-8” then 8-12”) either way you slice it Falls in the range....maybe more tonight?, but it looks quiet for a good chuck of the day after this sleety mix pulls thru.

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    1. Agreed. Completely messed up timings of heaviest precipitation, type of precipitation yesterday, amounts...
      I think the Dave Dahls, the Ian Leonards need to update themselves or run the risk of becoming obsolete, basically always saying the same things, etc.
      They are still good during live webcasts for severe weather outbreaks where experience is key, but as far as day-to-day TV forecasters not so good anymore.
      Personally I'd like to see Jonathan Yuhas being promoted to chief meteorologist or being given more 'important' air times.
      We need some real new fresh talent..
      Just my humble thoughts...

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    2. I believe Novak said on his last FB video that the heaviest would be done by 9am and then albeit lighter more precip later Thur even/night.

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    3. The problem is that real Science takes a back seat (third row seat) to hype and sensationalism, among other unimportant things. There's not enough time in a broadcast to get into anything beyond precip chances. That's why Novak is the only one I even listen to. I don't always understand the Science, but he gives a lot of information. I suppose it helps that I have at least some understanding of Science in general and the Science of Meteorology, something many network station viewers do not have.

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  126. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 11, 2019 at 10:34 AM

    Loving the craziness of this storm! Thunderstorms (rain) embedded in the heavy snow in western MN is crazy! Maybe one in a lifetime experience. I wish it would have been over my area, but fun to see so close to home.

    Bummer that it is not snowing heavily today as the surge of dry air really lifted really far north--more than expected I think.

    I hope more is on the way and just develops due to the strength of this storm. I think that the back energy of the storm could surprise some.

    BTW--My prediction of 10.5 in Plymouth is showing ok right now. And 7.8 at the Airport is showing ok right now. Just sayin'.

    And keep bringin' it!

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  127. This statement from the NWS is really intereing as well: "Have you noticed a tan or orange tint to the snow this morning? If so, the color is likely due to dust that was blown by high winds all the way from west Texas. Here's a satellite image from yesterday (Wednesday) showing the blowing dust in west Texas heading northeast." Dust for Texas coating our snow! Crazy!

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    1. Yaaaaas! Thank you, Ruth. I mentioned it on the phone to my granddaughter after I went outside to try and start tackling snow. It's everywhere in St. Louis Park, especially in the indentations where I had shoveled yesterday/last night. Thank you again.

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  128. Here come the ice pellets in St. Louis Park.

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  129. I have no idea how we're getting to 35 and rain today.

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    1. Thunder and downpour in south Minneapolis even as I type this. MM ;-)

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  130. Am I crazy? That little cell that just went over the Twin Cities looks suspiciously like it has a faux hook echo.

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  131. Am I wrong, or does this storm seem to be quite a bit off (NW) of yesterday's forecast track?

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  132. Yikes! Thunder and pouring rain in south Minneapolis. What a mess--especially if it freezes. MM ;-)

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  133. Just had lightning, thunder while pouring sleet in downtown Minneapolis

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  134. Fun storm to watch! Love the thunder. Not nearly as bad as last year's mid-April storm though (at least for the metro). A few days ago there was so much talk about this storm rivaling or surpassing last year's. Obviously it underperformed on that level. Still a great storm though.

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  135. I read about the dust from West Texas coloring our snow today. Looking out my eighth floor window at work, I can clearly see the discoloration. Pretty impressive.

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