Monday, March 11, 2019

Are Significant Flakes Over for the Season?

The weekend's slightly under achieving storm is over. Does Mother Nature have any more flakes left in her?

89 comments:

  1. Most 12z models show a general 1-3” after the transition to snow Thursday pm. Still time to watch for any surprises for that timeframe, like an earlier changeover or more moisture around after the transition. Let’s see what happens!

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  2. Models, especially the GFS (as shown by this last storm) have a cold bias this time of the year and tend to underestimate the 'resilience' of warm air.
    I believe there will be less than an inch on Thu PM (if at all).

    Since I hate rain (either snow or dry) I hope the Euro -- which shows a huge dry slot cutting down on precipitable water in the metro from Wed pm is correct.
    Unfortunately I think we are done with significant (greater than 3 inches) accumulations for the season.

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    1. Thats what I thought last year and then a few years ago when we got a foot in May! (SE MN)

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  3. There will be a deformation band of precip developing in sw/w Minnesota on Thursday that will be steadily going over to snow as you get on the backside of the low pressure and moving northeast with time. This band will drop a few inches of snow if you get under it, and may look like a blizzard for a time with the very strong winds on Thursday.

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  4. Well, Minneapolis alone has 55,000 'catch basins' for street draining, and there are 28,000 in St. Paul (source/KSTP news). Only 750 have been cleared in Mpls per tonight's report. So to the person who told me on the last blog to chop the ice because of the lakes in the streets, I'm having enough trouble doing that just on my sidewalk. :+( The news sources say it can take an hour of steaming to free up a drain. I hope we get very little rain. And I'm sorry the snow season (big snows) may be over. Good luck to people who may get flooded........ too many mentions of 'not as bad as '65, but.....' And Bill, thanks for some lively winter blogs this season.

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    1. There's a drain in front of my house. It took my husband and two neighbors a few hours total to free up the drain and now it drains but it's very slow (either still partially frozen or filled with leaves/debris). I'm still chipping away at my north facing sidewalk. I made progress today but still have lots to go.

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    2. Kudos to you, your husband, and the neighbors.

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  5. 18z GFS brings a band of 3-7” of snow dangerously close to MSP(just north). Currently just 1/2” for MSP. I know everyone is talking about the rain and flooding and rightfully so but to me it’s still winter and if the models are sniffing out snow I will follow until snow is no longer possible.

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  6. I see you 06Z NAM, very interesting! You will make snowlovers very happy if you verify. @Matt nice call, because the NWS in their discussion is hinting at the blizzard conditions you mentioned yesterday. Thursday afternoon/evening could get dicey!

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  7. 60 degrees on the horizon for end of next week.
    Winter snow is definitely over.
    And to those who will say: "but wait, remember what happened last April": it is exactly because of what happened last April, that it will not happen this year. As we'll never have another February like this in probably a generatiom.
    That's why "it was the snowiest February ever" or "the snowiest April ever".
    Because it does not happen often.
    Done with accumulating snow of more than 3 inches for the season!
    Quote me on it.

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  8. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 12, 2019 at 9:22 PM

    Quote me on this:

    We have NOT seen our last 3" or more snowfall this season. There is just no way I am buying that. It is only March 12. One cannot say this with a high level of confidence based on seasonal typical data. And with our deep snow cover and the pattern that we have in place which one should never bet again (when in a drought, don't predict rain), I strongly believe my prediction will be accurate. Here we go. I am on the record. Now bring it!

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  9. 06Z NAM drives a solid 2-4" of snow right thru the metro core tomorrow afternoon/night. Lets see how this plays out, been monitoring this timeframe for days on snow potential, models have consistently had some type of backside snows ranging anywhere from .5 to 5". My feeling is some areas near the metro if not the metro will have some surprises of snow come Friday morning!

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  10. The only surprise is how much grass you'll able to see by the end of the week.
    I don't believe the NAM.

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  11. It’s good to disagree @PWL. As Mark Twain once said that is what drives progress.
    Unfortunately your prediction will turn out wrong, starting with the ‘deep’ snow cover which will be gone within the next 3-5 days. We lost 7” inches just yesterday.
    Also I would rephrase it: it is NOT only March 12. It is ALREADY March 12.
    Season snow is done. Believe me.

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  12. You are certifiably insane if you think we need more snow. This snow and melting situation is causing flooding everywhere.

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  13. If your seeing snowflakes now or tonight, enjoy them! It’s the last snow of this season. Spring arrives next week and right behind that 50’s....

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  14. @Anonymous 6:44pm:
    I don’t know if your insults are directed at me (in which case you are more than welcome to take it back and stick it up your a***).
    I, like everybody else posting is simply debating Bill’s post about whether significant snow is done.
    Don’t see any sign of insanity in anyone.
    And of course totally agree with Tim.

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  15. Nothing but 40’s and 50’s to finish March, sorry @PWL if your seeking more snow it’s not happening unless ur banking on another freak April snowstorm were done! I’m sure you’ll admit the near 70” of snow this winter satisfied your snow itch!

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    2. Wow. Uh, that is not what the spirit of this blog is for, in my humble opinion and years of experience with having frequented the posts, lessons, videos, and words of those who are fascinated with winter and with weather. #harsh. And that is why maybe it should go to FB. Then we could see who you are. I enjoy PWL's posts.

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    3. Agreed on the harshness, but really, this blog is kind of a place for certain people to whine about not enough snow. I've spent the last 24 hours keeping water out of my basement. Probably five trips to Menards. So when somebody says we don't need any more snow, I kinda get it. You know?

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    4. Right. But the tone of the language..... i've got a young relative with multiple broken bones from a fall yesterday, my own flooded garage and paths I cannot navigate no matter how much water I pitch/how much ice I chop, and etc. I also just saw this on the news:"The metro has gone from a 19-inch snow depth on Sunday, to just 4 inches late Thursday." We also have deep frost from the super cold and snowless start to winter. Thus, flooding." It is nobody's fault that what has happened has happened. One expert while I was channel hopping is now starting to talk about 'this spring could be like '65.' That would be very bad. It's okay to say we don't need more snow. But please say it politely, and don't take it out on PWL.

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    5. Anonymous @6:18, I was with you up until you said Menards, Home Depot is the place to go, they have the better service and products!

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  16. Ordinarily I prefer Home Depot too. But Menards did very well for me these past 24 hours. Their service was really excellent. I had to go to three different stores. They seemed pretty sympathetic to us homeowners dealing with this nonsense.

    Can't wait for summer. Bring it.

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  17. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 16, 2019 at 10:47 AM

    I just checked the blog this morning after a few days away. When I saw the comments (looks like one removed by Bill), I went back and read my last post. I thought I said something offensive based on some of the recent comments. I honestly was just throwing out my prediction as to whether or notes would get another 3” snowfall or not. I went on record to say that I thought we would. I am sorry that some are dealing with flooding and wet basements among other challenging things. That sucks. But predictions don’t change because of someone struggling with something directly tied to the prediction. I have been a part of this blog for years and I agree with James-disagreement can lead to change. And it is healthy to disagree. But can we keep it healthy? I simply made a prediction. And I strongly think it willl happen. I stick to that. And I am not going to hide the fact that I love snow. More so, I love weather. And I love this blog because it is real people discussing weather. Let’s keep it like that. Healthy. Bring that!

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    1. Exactly. I messaged Bill on FB because ... one comment was kind of angry with a few expletives. I've been watching/learning from/enjoying the blog for years, too. And I know you LOVE snow. And there is nothing wrong with it. One of my family members makes their living off of snow. And my future grandson-in-law broke 5 to 6 bones in his foot and ankle Thursday because of ice on top of snow in a parking lot. But it doesn't take away my love of winter and what a winter this one has been. Keep dancing, PWL, and if the temps hold and there are no surprises between now and let's say 'end of May?' then see you in the future on here and again, keep dancing.

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  18. I have spent the past several days working on drying out my basement. What we don't need is more torrential rains on top of frozen ground. Last year we had a lot of snow on the ground, but I had no flooding issues because we didn't have a deluge of water fall on it with nowhere to go.

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    1. I think our lack of snow and deep frost depth because of it at the start of winter have made this flooding worse because the ground is so thick/solid there is no way the water can go 'down' into any part of the ground. Here is an article from a mid-February blog, and the frost was already almost 3 feet down in some areas. Sorry to hear about your basement. Agree that we sure do not need a lot of rain now. We need a decent thaw of the ground so that the earth can soak up some of this overabundant snow melt. https://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2019/02/frost-depth-increasing-light-snow-sunday/

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  19. Winter makes a strong comeback first week of April! Couple of days in the 30’s to 40°with overnights in the 20’s with 2 snow chances. Don’t put away the shovel just yet even though we may touch 60° this weekend.

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    1. Oh cool..... maybe there will something 'cold/white' for the Final Four hoopla.

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    2. Just fantasyland.
      Accumulating snow (at least 2 inches) is done for the 2018-2019 winter season.
      Expect rain for the foreseeable future. Next accumulating snow (at least 2 inches) probably around November 22nd or so.

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  20. Deep trough sets up late next week! Very interesting if your a snow lover. Those stupid “2” and 3” we won’t see more then that” predictions could be easily blown out of the water in a matter of a few hours if next weekend verifies!

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  21. Keep 'stupid' to yourself and learn to respect other opinions even if you disagree.
    I hope Bill bans from this blog.

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    1. I’m sorry that the word “stupid” offended you, but we live in Minnesota to come out and flatly say something won’t happen when it has happened many times in late March/early April(even after the temperatures hit 90°)is stupid to me...I’m not calling you stupid. Geez when did we as a society get so soft!

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    2. I am simply debating the headline of the entry “Are significant flakes overe for the season?” If it were so ‘stupid’ to entertain why would Bill ask opinions about it?
      And my answer is yes. I believe this pattern is more or less entrenched and there is not enough reservoire of cold air left to sustain a significant snow event.
      And whether it happened several times in the past has no impact of whether it will happen (or will not happen) this year.
      I am simply stating my point of view with regards to the topic.

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    3. Hey Anonymous you should start looking at the models, I know it’s way out there and is a moving target but almost all models show a spring “winter” snowstorm that has included MSP in varying intensities pretty consistently now for 2-3 days! Just saying...

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  22. Haven't been here for awhile. Yikes! peeps please calm down!! Weather is going to do what its going to do, there is not a damn thing you can do to change it, so learn to live with it. If you come here and read a post that you disagree with you should feel free to post as to why you believe what you believe. However to come here and post that so and so is stupid and dump is a direct indictment to the immaturity of the author.

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  23. As to the title of this thread, it really doesn't make any since to equivocally state that accumulating measurable snow is over with. Sure its going to get warm the middle of next week, but longer term the models are hinting at a period of below normal temps that is likely to put us in the baroclinic zone. Best guess is that mother nature drops a warning criteria snow somewhere in Minnesota.

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    1. Agree w/all you say. I think Bill's question is rhetorical to get us thinking/ discussing/ weighing in, especially those who have access to/read the maps and models and numbers that get spit out in anticipation of what's coming next. No point arguing. Time will tell.

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  24. Again, do not agree. Significant metro snow is done for the season.
    Equivocally stand by my opinion.

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  25. Omg, holy 00Z CMC model(Canadian) which if any meteorologist will show it or even mention it? It’s for next weekend, so a good 8 days out, but wow it’s got 2 feet of snow centered over the metro. Pure eye candy for snow lovers and @PWL.

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    1. You know you post that, and a war will start on this blog about it. Wouldn't THAT be something!?! I am talking the snow, not the fighting on the blog. :+)

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  26. The Parallel GFS (FV3) also shows ice to heavy snow.
    What it's interesting is that the track is not the classic SW/NE track but a more west, to slightly SE and only eventually to NE with some signs of stalling and looping over central Iowa.
    These type of tracks have been more effective in producing heavy snows for the metro area than the 'classic' panhandle hookers or colorado lows storms.
    The domebuster storm was mostly a west to east storm.
    This could get interesting...

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    1. Yup, totally agree that model shows a nice bad of 10-15” locally. Like you said this could get interesting, I’m sure a lot will change and people think I’m crazy for looking at models that far out, but as I always say if the models are sniffing out ANY snows I will certainly follow and pay attention, let’s see what happens.

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    2. I thought I read the FV3 deployment for replacing the current GFS was delayed because it was determined to have a much too cold bias. With regards to the CMC I wouldn't trust that model if it was the only one on earth. I do not know if I have ever seen it right over 48 hours.

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    3. Both models still show snow on their 12z run, but less, way less!
      Small nugget from the NWS discussion this morning:
      The models diverged on handling the western
      CONUS trough energy with the GFS lifting one trough through the
      region. The ECMWF lifted a couple of troughs through, splitting
      the system to the southeast. We will have to monitor overall
      trends into the week as it appears there will be enough cold air
      moving back into the area for a possible changeover to snow if
      timing is right.

      So snow possibility is on their radar!

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    4. Snow is done for the season in the metro. End of the story.

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    5. Try again ☝️! I have a few friends that say otherwise Let me introduce you to the 06z GFS the 06z FV3 the 00z CMC the 00z UKMET , all show snow in varying inches for the metro between now and the end of March.

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    6. End of March is next weekend.
      The 6Z runs of the GFS are not even worth the paper or the screen you look at them. And in any case the 6z GFS does not cool 925mb temps to -2C until 00z next Saturday by when most of the moisture will be gone, and even then surface temps will be close to 38F, not cold enough to sustain snow at the end of March.
      The CMC and the UKMET have been grossly inaccurate this year.
      Snow is done for the season, as simple as that.

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    7. Keep your eye on the Friday to Monday period to end March, it will snow in the metro and it will be measurable and the Anonymous trolling can finally eat crow!

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  27. Since when is sharing one’s opinion trolling?
    You too should be banned from this blog for lack of respect.

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  28. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 27, 2019 at 4:38 PM

    Some model guidance showing accumulating snow potential for the middle of next week. I stand by my prediction. We are not done with accumulating snow for this season. May as well.....bring it!

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  29. Yes we are.
    Those are probably the same models that Ed “try again” and Tim “eat crow” were mentioning in their posts that last week were showing accumulating snow for this week.
    Not only disrespecful but wrong.
    Accumulating snow is done for the season.

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    1. Not wrong! Just off by a few days. And not disrespectful, stop being so soft! Your trolling and it’s obvious, you just wait till someone says snow and then you say the opposite, stop playing a victim on a weather blog!

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    2. Definition of trolling: “In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive,extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community ....”
      Stating, in response to the blog post question, that I believe snow is done for the season, and reiterate it as people reiterate the opposite does not appear and my opinion to be inflammatory, digressive and certainly not off-topic.
      Neither am I trying to sow discord, I am simply emphasizing my position (and why if you read early entries), and mostly importantly I am not calling people names or wishing them to eat crow.
      The matter is much less incendiary than you make it look with your ‘trolling’ and other epithets for which there is really no reason. The matter is actually very simple:
      You believe we are not done with accumulating snow and cite model guidance a week in advance as evidence.
      I believe the opposite because i think models this time of the year have an inherent cold bias and this pattern is entrenched.
      We disagree.
      Sooner rather than later we’ll know who was right and wo was wrong.
      That’s it. No need to invoke trolling, eat crow etc..

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  30. Snowlovers keep your eyes peeled on Wednesday night!

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  31. Wednesday we will be putting down pre-emergent

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  32. Last flakes of season falling right now, it’s been a really chilly weekend. Spring starts in earnest on Friday, no more looking back, no more winter relapses, no more winter words like windchill, snow accumulations, blizzards, inches, and also temps stay above the freezing point. Finally a true spring! PWL snow will return again in November, enjoy your 7 month break.

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  33. ...as I have been predicting for the past few weeks.
    Good to hear that finally other people are starting to come around to what was obvious since March 10th.
    Accumulating snow was/is done for the season.

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  34. Oh Anonymous @ 7:16am, you are so smart. I wish we all were blessed with the same direct line to Mother Nature that you seem to have.

    Have a good summer everyone! I look forward to next winter. I would like to contribute a few bucks to PWL's depends fund for next year. I also look forward to learning more about models, snow bombs, dry slots, 900mb lines and all the other fun winter brings. Thanks to those who have helped further my knowledge this season.

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    1. Actually yes, to some extent, and everyone who's lived long enough in Minnesota with a good spirit of observation would notice the patterns of plants re-awakening, bird flying pattern, their calls, how rabbits and squirrels behave and come to the conclusion that snow was done.
      In a certain sense it is like having a direct line with Mother Nature, who speaks to us every single second of each day if one would be less inclined to make fun of people and listen instead.

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  35. FYI, this page does exist during the summer for those of us who like summer storms.

    Fair warning: there's less hysteria and less wetting of pants.

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  36. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 3, 2019 at 6:56 PM

    Winter snow is not over yet. Multiple models show significant snow anywhere between Thursday of next week through the following Monday. Clearly, cold air is still in place and the atmosphere is still ripe for snow. I stand by my prediction.

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  37. PWL maybe onto something. Most models dropping heavy snow in or very near Minnesota mid next week, as it turns much colder. Nothing like the 06z GFS dropping 1-2ft of snow between Minneapolis and Albert Lea, let’s see how this one shakes out.

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  38. Cooling trend will then continue through the end of the period.
    Models continue to drive significant west coast CONUS energy
    eastward into the mid section of the county by midweek. The GFS
    and ECMWF move significant storm across either Iowa or northern
    Missouri into Thursday. At the moment, they are both cold enough
    for a nice shield of Springtime snow north of the track of the
    low. Still a question how far north that will eventually develop.
    Certainly something to continue to watch.

    Just saying....

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  39. OMG! Anyone see the latest EURO run for next Wednesday-Thursday? Let’s just say PWL will be in heaven!

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  40. Yes, 29 inches of snow or so for MSP...

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  41. Don’t model hugApril 4, 2019 at 6:35 PM

    No worries, it will miss just like today’s rain. It was suppose to rain and it didn’t, it’s amazing how often the forecast is wrong the day of and you want me to believe something that’s 6 days away! If I’m shoveling 29” this time next week then I will believe it or even 1/3rd of that!

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  42. Paul Douglas on 'cco today was talking SNOW next week (mid week) and then said, 'But that is a long way off.' And I thought, 'Then why did you bring it UP?????' But he said somebody somewhere (vague, I know) has 'the potential' (two of his fav words) for snow that one can shovel. Time.Will.Tell. P.S. "Don't model hug" it is raining in my Mpls suburb, though not lots. But it's raining.

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  43. Going back to my post of March 21st, nothing has changed my mind that somewhere in Minnesota would get one last shot at significant snow this year.

    We have simply not seen a persistent strong mid to upper level ridge set in that would keep storms at bay. Also without said ridging we will continue to be subject to residing in the baroclinic zone that defines cold air from warm air that storms like to follow. I for one, am not surprised to see what the models are hinting at for next week. But details need to be worked out.

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  44. Fantasyland...
    Models are always too cold days in advance. Storm will either turn warmer or miss the area. Translation: rain or nothing.
    Accumulating snow was done a few weeks ago for the metro, as stated several times.

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    1. You are an annoying troll as stated several times before. You just state the opposite every single time it very well may not happen but to state the same thing over and over....you sound like a broken record and rub people the wrong way even if it doesn’t snow another flake this season!

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    2. And you are a somewhat arrogant person that cannot handle people that have different opinions from yours and therefore, being short of argumentation resorts to insults.
      I continue to state my position (and why), and I do not see anything wrong with it.
      And most importantly I do not insult people like you and others have done.

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  45. Dr. Novak has an impact map up already for next week!

    And the real Paul Douglas forecast for next Thursday is:
    Heavy snow tapers....could be quite the pile!

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  46. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 6, 2019 at 12:39 PM

    All models are lining up. Upper air dynamics are incredible. Novak has impact map out. Mets are starting to talk about it. Cold air is still in place. The Gulf is wide open. Closed negatively tilted low is forming. Be prepared messages are coming out. I am all in.

    Made run for depends. Dancing shoes are shined.

    Here we go. Bring it!!!!!

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  47. Please for the love of God someone take PWL's dancing shoes!

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  48. Are you sure you are not looking at last year’s maps?
    Models are coming in further north and west, and warmer with this system.
    Metro rain (maybe some snow at the front and back ends).

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  49. The real Paul Douglas is nuts to be talking heavy snow this early. He should know better about the insanity that is April in Minnesota. I’m not say it may not happen, but this far out is a stretch.

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  50. By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

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  51. It’s going to snow! It’s going to be measurable, it may even snow more then last April’s snowstorm. Get ready plenty meteorologists will start talking about this storm and it’s snow potential starting tomorrow in earnest.

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  52. 00Z models are in! Let’s just say I hope PWL has his depends on, maybe double up when looking at the 24”+ snowfall totals.

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  53. Hey Bill, it's time for a new thread. Time to alert your readers to possibilities of what's ahead.

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    1. I agree Randy, it’s getting interesting now! We’re only about 4 days out. Hope this storm brings out the “Randy’s 4-corners of accumulation”.

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  54. Phone app has 8-14” Wednesday night thru Friday morning with temps stuck in the 30’s!

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  55. New thread just created....

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