Monday, March 11, 2019

Are Significant Flakes Over for the Season?

The weekend's slightly under achieving storm is over. Does Mother Nature have any more flakes left in her?

49 comments:

  1. Most 12z models show a general 1-3” after the transition to snow Thursday pm. Still time to watch for any surprises for that timeframe, like an earlier changeover or more moisture around after the transition. Let’s see what happens!

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  2. Models, especially the GFS (as shown by this last storm) have a cold bias this time of the year and tend to underestimate the 'resilience' of warm air.
    I believe there will be less than an inch on Thu PM (if at all).

    Since I hate rain (either snow or dry) I hope the Euro -- which shows a huge dry slot cutting down on precipitable water in the metro from Wed pm is correct.
    Unfortunately I think we are done with significant (greater than 3 inches) accumulations for the season.

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    1. Thats what I thought last year and then a few years ago when we got a foot in May! (SE MN)

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  3. There will be a deformation band of precip developing in sw/w Minnesota on Thursday that will be steadily going over to snow as you get on the backside of the low pressure and moving northeast with time. This band will drop a few inches of snow if you get under it, and may look like a blizzard for a time with the very strong winds on Thursday.

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  4. Well, Minneapolis alone has 55,000 'catch basins' for street draining, and there are 28,000 in St. Paul (source/KSTP news). Only 750 have been cleared in Mpls per tonight's report. So to the person who told me on the last blog to chop the ice because of the lakes in the streets, I'm having enough trouble doing that just on my sidewalk. :+( The news sources say it can take an hour of steaming to free up a drain. I hope we get very little rain. And I'm sorry the snow season (big snows) may be over. Good luck to people who may get flooded........ too many mentions of 'not as bad as '65, but.....' And Bill, thanks for some lively winter blogs this season.

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    1. There's a drain in front of my house. It took my husband and two neighbors a few hours total to free up the drain and now it drains but it's very slow (either still partially frozen or filled with leaves/debris). I'm still chipping away at my north facing sidewalk. I made progress today but still have lots to go.

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    2. Kudos to you, your husband, and the neighbors.

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  5. 18z GFS brings a band of 3-7” of snow dangerously close to MSP(just north). Currently just 1/2” for MSP. I know everyone is talking about the rain and flooding and rightfully so but to me it’s still winter and if the models are sniffing out snow I will follow until snow is no longer possible.

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  6. I see you 06Z NAM, very interesting! You will make snowlovers very happy if you verify. @Matt nice call, because the NWS in their discussion is hinting at the blizzard conditions you mentioned yesterday. Thursday afternoon/evening could get dicey!

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  7. 60 degrees on the horizon for end of next week.
    Winter snow is definitely over.
    And to those who will say: "but wait, remember what happened last April": it is exactly because of what happened last April, that it will not happen this year. As we'll never have another February like this in probably a generatiom.
    That's why "it was the snowiest February ever" or "the snowiest April ever".
    Because it does not happen often.
    Done with accumulating snow of more than 3 inches for the season!
    Quote me on it.

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  8. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 12, 2019 at 9:22 PM

    Quote me on this:

    We have NOT seen our last 3" or more snowfall this season. There is just no way I am buying that. It is only March 12. One cannot say this with a high level of confidence based on seasonal typical data. And with our deep snow cover and the pattern that we have in place which one should never bet again (when in a drought, don't predict rain), I strongly believe my prediction will be accurate. Here we go. I am on the record. Now bring it!

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  9. 06Z NAM drives a solid 2-4" of snow right thru the metro core tomorrow afternoon/night. Lets see how this plays out, been monitoring this timeframe for days on snow potential, models have consistently had some type of backside snows ranging anywhere from .5 to 5". My feeling is some areas near the metro if not the metro will have some surprises of snow come Friday morning!

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  10. The only surprise is how much grass you'll able to see by the end of the week.
    I don't believe the NAM.

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  11. It’s good to disagree @PWL. As Mark Twain once said that is what drives progress.
    Unfortunately your prediction will turn out wrong, starting with the ‘deep’ snow cover which will be gone within the next 3-5 days. We lost 7” inches just yesterday.
    Also I would rephrase it: it is NOT only March 12. It is ALREADY March 12.
    Season snow is done. Believe me.

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  12. You are certifiably insane if you think we need more snow. This snow and melting situation is causing flooding everywhere.

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  13. If your seeing snowflakes now or tonight, enjoy them! It’s the last snow of this season. Spring arrives next week and right behind that 50’s....

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  14. @Anonymous 6:44pm:
    I don’t know if your insults are directed at me (in which case you are more than welcome to take it back and stick it up your a***).
    I, like everybody else posting is simply debating Bill’s post about whether significant snow is done.
    Don’t see any sign of insanity in anyone.
    And of course totally agree with Tim.

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  15. Nothing but 40’s and 50’s to finish March, sorry @PWL if your seeking more snow it’s not happening unless ur banking on another freak April snowstorm were done! I’m sure you’ll admit the near 70” of snow this winter satisfied your snow itch!

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    2. Wow. Uh, that is not what the spirit of this blog is for, in my humble opinion and years of experience with having frequented the posts, lessons, videos, and words of those who are fascinated with winter and with weather. #harsh. And that is why maybe it should go to FB. Then we could see who you are. I enjoy PWL's posts.

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    3. Agreed on the harshness, but really, this blog is kind of a place for certain people to whine about not enough snow. I've spent the last 24 hours keeping water out of my basement. Probably five trips to Menards. So when somebody says we don't need any more snow, I kinda get it. You know?

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    4. Right. But the tone of the language..... i've got a young relative with multiple broken bones from a fall yesterday, my own flooded garage and paths I cannot navigate no matter how much water I pitch/how much ice I chop, and etc. I also just saw this on the news:"The metro has gone from a 19-inch snow depth on Sunday, to just 4 inches late Thursday." We also have deep frost from the super cold and snowless start to winter. Thus, flooding." It is nobody's fault that what has happened has happened. One expert while I was channel hopping is now starting to talk about 'this spring could be like '65.' That would be very bad. It's okay to say we don't need more snow. But please say it politely, and don't take it out on PWL.

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    5. Anonymous @6:18, I was with you up until you said Menards, Home Depot is the place to go, they have the better service and products!

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  16. Ordinarily I prefer Home Depot too. But Menards did very well for me these past 24 hours. Their service was really excellent. I had to go to three different stores. They seemed pretty sympathetic to us homeowners dealing with this nonsense.

    Can't wait for summer. Bring it.

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  17. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 16, 2019 at 10:47 AM

    I just checked the blog this morning after a few days away. When I saw the comments (looks like one removed by Bill), I went back and read my last post. I thought I said something offensive based on some of the recent comments. I honestly was just throwing out my prediction as to whether or notes would get another 3” snowfall or not. I went on record to say that I thought we would. I am sorry that some are dealing with flooding and wet basements among other challenging things. That sucks. But predictions don’t change because of someone struggling with something directly tied to the prediction. I have been a part of this blog for years and I agree with James-disagreement can lead to change. And it is healthy to disagree. But can we keep it healthy? I simply made a prediction. And I strongly think it willl happen. I stick to that. And I am not going to hide the fact that I love snow. More so, I love weather. And I love this blog because it is real people discussing weather. Let’s keep it like that. Healthy. Bring that!

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    1. Exactly. I messaged Bill on FB because ... one comment was kind of angry with a few expletives. I've been watching/learning from/enjoying the blog for years, too. And I know you LOVE snow. And there is nothing wrong with it. One of my family members makes their living off of snow. And my future grandson-in-law broke 5 to 6 bones in his foot and ankle Thursday because of ice on top of snow in a parking lot. But it doesn't take away my love of winter and what a winter this one has been. Keep dancing, PWL, and if the temps hold and there are no surprises between now and let's say 'end of May?' then see you in the future on here and again, keep dancing.

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  18. I have spent the past several days working on drying out my basement. What we don't need is more torrential rains on top of frozen ground. Last year we had a lot of snow on the ground, but I had no flooding issues because we didn't have a deluge of water fall on it with nowhere to go.

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    1. I think our lack of snow and deep frost depth because of it at the start of winter have made this flooding worse because the ground is so thick/solid there is no way the water can go 'down' into any part of the ground. Here is an article from a mid-February blog, and the frost was already almost 3 feet down in some areas. Sorry to hear about your basement. Agree that we sure do not need a lot of rain now. We need a decent thaw of the ground so that the earth can soak up some of this overabundant snow melt. https://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2019/02/frost-depth-increasing-light-snow-sunday/

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  19. Winter makes a strong comeback first week of April! Couple of days in the 30’s to 40°with overnights in the 20’s with 2 snow chances. Don’t put away the shovel just yet even though we may touch 60° this weekend.

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    1. Oh cool..... maybe there will something 'cold/white' for the Final Four hoopla.

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    2. Just fantasyland.
      Accumulating snow (at least 2 inches) is done for the 2018-2019 winter season.
      Expect rain for the foreseeable future. Next accumulating snow (at least 2 inches) probably around November 22nd or so.

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  20. Deep trough sets up late next week! Very interesting if your a snow lover. Those stupid “2” and 3” we won’t see more then that” predictions could be easily blown out of the water in a matter of a few hours if next weekend verifies!

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  21. Keep 'stupid' to yourself and learn to respect other opinions even if you disagree.
    I hope Bill bans from this blog.

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    1. I’m sorry that the word “stupid” offended you, but we live in Minnesota to come out and flatly say something won’t happen when it has happened many times in late March/early April(even after the temperatures hit 90°)is stupid to me...I’m not calling you stupid. Geez when did we as a society get so soft!

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    2. I am simply debating the headline of the entry “Are significant flakes overe for the season?” If it were so ‘stupid’ to entertain why would Bill ask opinions about it?
      And my answer is yes. I believe this pattern is more or less entrenched and there is not enough reservoire of cold air left to sustain a significant snow event.
      And whether it happened several times in the past has no impact of whether it will happen (or will not happen) this year.
      I am simply stating my point of view with regards to the topic.

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    3. Hey Anonymous you should start looking at the models, I know it’s way out there and is a moving target but almost all models show a spring “winter” snowstorm that has included MSP in varying intensities pretty consistently now for 2-3 days! Just saying...

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  22. Haven't been here for awhile. Yikes! peeps please calm down!! Weather is going to do what its going to do, there is not a damn thing you can do to change it, so learn to live with it. If you come here and read a post that you disagree with you should feel free to post as to why you believe what you believe. However to come here and post that so and so is stupid and dump is a direct indictment to the immaturity of the author.

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  23. As to the title of this thread, it really doesn't make any since to equivocally state that accumulating measurable snow is over with. Sure its going to get warm the middle of next week, but longer term the models are hinting at a period of below normal temps that is likely to put us in the baroclinic zone. Best guess is that mother nature drops a warning criteria snow somewhere in Minnesota.

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    1. Agree w/all you say. I think Bill's question is rhetorical to get us thinking/ discussing/ weighing in, especially those who have access to/read the maps and models and numbers that get spit out in anticipation of what's coming next. No point arguing. Time will tell.

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  24. Again, do not agree. Significant metro snow is done for the season.
    Equivocally stand by my opinion.

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  25. Omg, holy 00Z CMC model(Canadian) which if any meteorologist will show it or even mention it? It’s for next weekend, so a good 8 days out, but wow it’s got 2 feet of snow centered over the metro. Pure eye candy for snow lovers and @PWL.

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    1. You know you post that, and a war will start on this blog about it. Wouldn't THAT be something!?! I am talking the snow, not the fighting on the blog. :+)

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  26. The Parallel GFS (FV3) also shows ice to heavy snow.
    What it's interesting is that the track is not the classic SW/NE track but a more west, to slightly SE and only eventually to NE with some signs of stalling and looping over central Iowa.
    These type of tracks have been more effective in producing heavy snows for the metro area than the 'classic' panhandle hookers or colorado lows storms.
    The domebuster storm was mostly a west to east storm.
    This could get interesting...

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    1. Yup, totally agree that model shows a nice bad of 10-15” locally. Like you said this could get interesting, I’m sure a lot will change and people think I’m crazy for looking at models that far out, but as I always say if the models are sniffing out ANY snows I will certainly follow and pay attention, let’s see what happens.

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    2. I thought I read the FV3 deployment for replacing the current GFS was delayed because it was determined to have a much too cold bias. With regards to the CMC I wouldn't trust that model if it was the only one on earth. I do not know if I have ever seen it right over 48 hours.

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    3. Both models still show snow on their 12z run, but less, way less!
      Small nugget from the NWS discussion this morning:
      The models diverged on handling the western
      CONUS trough energy with the GFS lifting one trough through the
      region. The ECMWF lifted a couple of troughs through, splitting
      the system to the southeast. We will have to monitor overall
      trends into the week as it appears there will be enough cold air
      moving back into the area for a possible changeover to snow if
      timing is right.

      So snow possibility is on their radar!

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