Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Current weather channel forecast is 6-10”!
Ken Barlow(KSTP): IF the storm stays on its current path, we will see several inches of snow by the time the storm wraps up on Sunday.
EURO says rain... and the Euro is (almost)never wrong.But it's way too early to even talk about this.Just pure speculation at this stage...
Brickman on CCO said this morning that he’s “tracking a whopper snowstorm” Saturday
I fully expect a Novak “impact” map out by tomorrow the latest if not sooner! The weekend storm looks very impactful it’s not a matter IF it will affect the region just a matter of what impacts it will have where. Definitely a blizzard somewhere and heavy amounts of snow!
When I asked him about it a couple days ago on FB, he wrote "potential." I keep checking for maps...... let us know if you see something. Thanks.
I agree @Ed, impacts with this one will be high. It’s pretty telling that the NWS already has 80% snow chances on Saturday and Sunday for something that’s 5 days out.
Today’s 12Z run of the GFS and Canadian both show 10+” for Saturday’s winter storm in MSP!
**FUN FACT OF THE DAY**Current MSP snow depth is 25”, the record snow depth at MSP was achieved in January 1982 of 38”! We are pretty close and don’t foresee much loss this week until the weekend when we flirt with freezing. The wildcard of course to breaking the snow depth record is what flavor precipitation will this weekends storm bring, will it be all rain or all snow or a mix of both or rain changing to snow scenario, then of course how much snow will it be. Some models are projecting some high totals so in this instance it will be a fun fact to follow the rest of this week and see where we stand after this weekend. Like I said I’m all about breaking records especially when we get close to them, I’m still bummed about not breaking the all time snowiest month record of 46.9” just a few days ago!
It's going to take a lot of snow to reach a snow depth of 38". Our existing snow pack is pretty fluffy snow which will compact quite a bit when heavier wet March snow falls on top of it.
We have all March to break the record! From the looks of it models have also been hinting at another snowstorm a few days after the one over the weekend. This winter will go down as one of the greatest comebacks from what looked to be a terrible winter up until late January.
Has anyone else noticed how much colder the official temperature readings are at the NWS Chanhassen location, as opposed to the MSP airport? Check out the link below. This makes me wonder what effect changing the official station to the airport has had on temperature records. Thoughts?https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/historical/lcd.html?loc=mpx
It's an interesting point to think about. I just checked yesterday and it's a 2-3 degree difference. Sometimes the snow totals are 'bigger' at Chan v. MSP Airport. That link looks all Chanhassen.... does it have the side-by-side with MSP airport? I just picked the 'random' (not really) date of April 14, 2018 when that big snowstorm came through and I went hunting for a similar noaa chart for the airport: on that date MSP temps were 29/20 with 10.9 inches of snow and Chan had 30/22 and 11.1 inches of snow. So that day Chanhassen was a bit warmer and beat the airport snow total. When it's colder in St. Louis Park I just figure we are not in the 'core' and/or maybe don't have airplane exhaust (ha) warming up wherever the official temperature-taking equipment is located. And I've noticed Lakeville is often warmer when I listen to the noaa radio, and I think, 'Wow, is it so 'south' that it gets to be warmer than where I live?' It is 'only 27 miles, roughly..... I throw out this data/these observations because there are probably variables that go into coming up with a definitive answer.Your question is an excellent one, Schnee Meister.
Hi WeatherGeek, thanks for your response. Here is the link that enables you to select both Chanhassen NWS and MSP airport.https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/index.html
Thanks for the link, Schnee Meister. I hope others have some thoughts on the question you asked, too. :+)
I’ve always said nobody lives at the airport! It’s a UHI effect and not a true characterization of what is truly occurring. Snows will always be a little give and take, meaning sometimes Chan will measure and sometimes MSP will measure more but I believe that pretty much balances out over a winter season but it’s the temperatures that don’t paint a good picture of what is really occurring. You can’t have a UHI location as the record of choice.
But wouldn't the airport kind of provide 'insulation' away from the urban heat island in the Twin Cities area? When I type major cities around the USA into the NOAA forecast software and then hunt for climate data, it seems that airports are popular locations for official measurements. It's true nobody lives at the airport, but maybe in NOAA's thoughts it's a 'safer' official kind of place that isn't necessarily in the middle of the heat island the way a state capitol might be, for instance. Just thinking out loud, and not sure.
Things are shifting the more rain mixed in with the snow. Impressive amounts of moisture if this thing really happens.
Still to far out to know if its rain or snow for us. All depends on the track... I know some want the snow to stop but if MSP was to be dumped on with rain the consequences would be really bad! Deep snow pack + deep frost depth = major flooding.
Talk about lazy!! The NWS area discussion was "updated" at 4:29am this morning, accept for the fact they didn't update the long term portion of the discussion, its the same write up from yesterday afternoon the only difference was the time stamp changed to 4:29AM. At least if your not going to update the long term portion then keep the time the same because its pretty embarrassing that they reference 00Z models within that discussion and we have had 2 full model runs since that time. SMH
Disregard, they must have been updating it at the same time I was reading it because now there IS an updated long term portion. My apologies for jumping the gun. New update was at 4:32am.
Glad NWS updated their discussion because I like it! The most reliable (this year) models leaves most of the rain out of it! Bring it, baby!!! Dancing all week.
I like it too! Although I don’t understand the “70-90% chance of 0.25 inch liquid equivalent of snow over So MN”. The GFS has been consistently putting down 1.3”+ for this weekends storm, and almost 1.5” in this morning’s 6z run!!I wonder why the precip amount they are calling out is so low. And I’m looking forward to Novak’s video to hear what he’s seeing, what he’s excited about, and the red flags.
Novak awful quiet about the weekend storm..... what gives?
I know. Nothing since March 3 on FB...... waiting and wondering......
Mr. Novak just posted a map of potentials on his FB page. Here it comes.
Maybe he took some time off. Can’t blame him! Latest Euro and GFS remain impressive but a very tight gradient again and temps are close. Probably Thursday before we really know. But the GFS in coming closer to the Euro.
His map of potentials is there now on FB. People are asking him left/right what it means when he says he has a 'bad feeling' about this one. Like they are thinking 'bust' and I'm thinking 'monster storm.' Like I always say, time will tell. Hoping he makes a video with Bill. With the increase in temps it's probably harder to figure out snow totals. If this snowstorm is huge and we get yet another next week mid-week like some models are indicating.... the flooding potential is going to be huge I fear.
When we hit 75.8” we crack the top 10 for seasonal snowfall, if we hit 98.6” it will be #1! Just saying!!
MSP has 62.4" to date; Chanhassen 62.1". It looks like 75.8" is pretty much possible this month and beyond based on chatter/forecasts, bigdaddy.
77 and sunny in Yucca, Arizona, as I type this. I'm sitting outside looking at palm trees and a swimming pool. I cannot explain in words how great it feels to be here and away from the garbage weather of Minnesota.
The NWS really seems to be favoring the GFS for this weekend's storm. They do not appear to be in favor of an all snow event in the metro.
12Z EURO dropped a 18” bomb on the metro for this weekend! It has my attention for sure.
The 03/05/19 18z runs of the GFS and the GFSV3 have moved to the 12z run of the ECMWF.
We could change the title of this thread to will we do this again? And again?
Ok, this is looking better and better, the 03/06/0z runs of the GFS and GFSv3 have moved closer yet to the Euro.
Which is the more southern snowy solution Correct? What about southern MN like around Rochester?
There is still major questions as to the track. The ICON model seems to have taken a major shift to the SE. While that will mean all snow for the metro the QPF will be lower. That model favors the area from Austin to Eau Claire for the heaviest snow. Sound familiar????
Its pretty amazing that almost ALL the models at this range are targeted either central and/or southern Minnesota with the heavy snow!I see Novak put out his travel impact map today(right on que as I suspected the other day), so the next step is the winter storm watch. I say if this model agreement keeps up you will see watches going up all over Minnesota on Thursday afternoon and would begin altering your weekend plans because the storm will hit in some fashion.
I am in shock. Even though my noaa online forecast is not 'showing' snow totals, my little radio just spit out 'heavy snow' totals of 4-8 inches for BOTH Saturday during the day and again Saturday during the night (7-8 inches) with no 'storm total' final count, plus another inch Sunday morning. Is it saying 13-17 inches in the metro is possible? Whaaaaaaaat? My only questions are: 1) where do we put it all; 2) can a roof handle this, especially with the ice buildup already under it all?
If this was poker the fine folks at the NWS Twin Cities just went ALL IN! They have eliminated any and all mention of mix and or rain for the metro for this weekend, in place now is 100% HEAVY SNOW from Saturday into Sunday! Their discussion page reads like a holy grail for snowlovers, @PWL I would make sure you have your depends on when you read it. Two words: HIGH IMPACT.
Cannot believe the hysteria. It’s only Wednesday.And we know what traditionally happens when the metro is the bulls-eye 3 days in advance.We can get 1 inch, or 18 inches. All equally likely at this point. Just pure speculation.
Agreed. This is ridiculous. Why would this forecast hold up when forecasts such as this rarely, if ever, do?
Anonymous @6:14am and Joel when do you think people/public should be given a proper heads up/warning that a major winter storm is on the horizon? I don’t see any hysteria nor do I see exact forecasts or inch amounts. What I do see is the NWS trying to alert everyone of this storms potential along with the social media meteorologists. It’s not a matter anymore if it will occur just a matter now of when and how much. Obviously when they say 100% they are pretty confident it will occur but by all means they have held off on specific details.
Well said Matt.
Agreed. It's better my little NOAA radio 'wakes me up now' rather than later.
The only people I pay ANY attention to this far out are the ones NOT giving snow totals. There are many who already are. That's what is ridiculous.I have no issue with being told that there is potential for a major winter storm in my area. But I've lived in the Upper Midwest my entire life and can probably count on one hand the number of times those forecasted amounts have been accurate three or more days out.People are jumping on board this forecast as if it's a sure thing to happen exactly as we currently think it will. Experience should have taught all of us by now not to trust that.The only thing we should be told three days out is: Be Prepared!
OK...so let's follow your line of reasoning here for no snow totals in early forecasts..."Be Prepared!" means what exactly? I know what an 8-10 inch snowfall means for my family's ability to get to the places we are scheduled to be on Saturday. And I also know how a 12-15 inch snowfall will impact those same plans on Saturday. (Note: this will be two very different sets of plans as the higher totals will mean my family is down to one vehicle thus requiring a lot more coordination).So without having any idea of snow totals, how would you suggest I approach being prepared? I'd rather know NOW what the potential is so that I can plan. And if we only get 11.5 inches when it was supposed to be 15... oh well. At least I am prepared for the potential.
Novak's travel impact maps are a great example.
As I stated several times I do not believe that given our state of forecasting accuracy 3-4 days in advance, we can provide any accurate and detailed enough heads-up that are really useful to the public. Uncertainty means nobody is actually going to do anything anyway until things become clearer anyway. And the idea that “somewhere in the Upper Midwest there will be a major winter storm” does not provide any additional information than what I already know. It’s like saying ‘somewhere on Earth there maybe a thunderstorm”.It is just hype to drive traffic to the relevant media platform.Ian Leonard puts is better than anyone else.
Well then, what you should do is create a social media platform that only 4casts storms & what to expect at the last possible moment. See if the public likes that approach. If they do, then you are onto something. I can tell you this, on my Social Media platform, I get a large amount of questions about what to expect several days down the road because people are trying to plan, especially on the weekend. I feel that a 4caster is irresponsible & placing the public in danger if they don't tell them ahead of time of potential travel hazards.
Most of the general public is smart enough to realize that things change with weather & that it is NOT a perfect science. Hence, they take 4casts with a grain of salt. Truth is, a 4cast can change even during the last few minutes of a storm. So, with your take, there is really no reason to even bother creating a 4cast.
I wonder if your Ian Leonard? Because the fact is he is too conservative, doesn’t even speak about a storms potential until it’s on our doorstep and either has been wrong on his predictions many times this winter or waits to the last possible minute to give his inch forecast. I rather know in advance...3 days is good enough....because if you own a plow business I’m sure they need time to prepare or if your a trucker it would help to know what’s on the horizon or even if you were simply moving this weekend it would help to know that you should alter your plans.
I am not suprised Mr Novak would say that.After all his business model is based on it and so he has all the right to value it.I simply disagree that something with such a high degree of uncertainty provides any value so far in advance.And no, I am not Ian Leonard although I also run Triathlons and IronMen as a former competitive swimmer.
Even 'CCO radio is forecasting 12-15 inches for Saturday in the metro area..... it's pretty amazing this far out. I am one who "believes" in long range/do worry about the future, and I definitely pay attention to Mr. Novak's posts/his FB page, too. Mike Lynch likened the storm to the one last mid-April in the metro and said it could surpass those totals.
I look forward to Tom's upcoming video.If this thing targets the metro, I'm afraid this city will be impassable. There is nowhere left to put the snow.
This could be where the "blessing and curse" of social media is more curse. Few outlets want to place specific numbers this early for fear of being wrong in public. If someone says 10-14 inches today then the storm comes in warm causing rain followed by 2-4 inches actual snow, that outlet would get hammered for weeks in said social media circles. With few people wanting to be the target of such negative feedback they'll hold off on specific numbers as long as they can. Which makes sense with a storm like this that could change multiple times up until arrival this weekend. At the same time it is also understandable the desire to see the potential impacts in specific numbers for planning purposes.
It's okay to hold off on numbers, but a heads up is appreciated. And now I am surprised at the big numbers just about everyone is throwing out this early, so 'it must be true.' For anyone who gets the STRIB, they have an entire page today (A6) of "A February for the record books" and it has interesting info. Half the page is "The Winter That Waited Until February." In November we got a measly 3 inches of snow (average is 9.3); in December we got a mere 6.7 during the first half and then nothing. In early January, 'next to no snow fell Jan 1-26' and in late January we finally had 5.1 inches of snow and cold enough air for it to stick. And then came February........ Strib is already running this headline: 'Large-scale' snowfall poised to further bury Twin Cities this weekend' with no numbers attached, but trying to at least make people aware/get their attention. At least most of the experts in the field have definitely gotten MY attention.
Dancing! And shopping for more Depends. Running low! This really fun to watch even this far out!! Bring it!
Definitely happy for you. On the other hand, The 'real Paul Douglas' notes in today's Strib that "dishing out specific inch amounts with the onset of snow still three days off is a bit premature, and professionally irresponsible." If all the other people who earn their living tracking weather for us followed that advice you wouldn't be able to dance and get Depends until you were stuck and unable to move in your driveway. :+) Dance on, PWL. This has been a tremendous winter for you snow-wise. I am happy for you.
I've always said the answer is probabilistic forecasting, such as what the Capital Weather Group does for the Washington, DC area. They'll provide the percent chance of different levels of snowfall (i.e., 20% of <3", 30% of 3-6", 30% of 6-10" and 20% of >10"). That communicate potential as well as uncertainty. What else could you want?
The weather service has started doing this with probability of 2+, 4+, 6+ inches etc. I’m guessing we will see a chart like that by tomorrow morning. I’ve found them helpful in knowing whether to not worry, stay alert, or prepare for the worst. And they have been pretty accurate, in that I haven’t seen my area go from 80% of, say 6 inches to ending up with nothing. More like 80% of 6 and we get 4.
As a data scientist that works with probabilities all the time for a living, I have always been a big fan of probabilistic weather forecasts although the mathematical properties of probabilities make it for potentially interesting interpretation when applied to weather:So for example: AB is mentioning 80% of getting 6" and they get 4".Mathematically an 80% chance of getting 6 means an expected value of 4.8 (6*0.8), and so on. So if you get 4 you could say it was overforecast and so on.That is how personally I have been evaluating NWS probabilistic forecasts.
I suppose it's more or less the same, though I'm sure my interpretation is more casual than yours, but I still think a presentation such as: 20% of 0-4", 30% of 4-7", 30% of 7-10" and 15% chance of 10 to 12" and 5% of 12 to 15" makes more sense than the way the NWS charts show the probabilities.
This storm is getting more and more fun to read about and think about. If there is a video (please, please, please), I would like Novak to respond to this part in the NWS discussion from this evening as I don't fully understand it: "Another aspect to this storm is the convection across Iowa. Due tothe potent nature, and the possibility of strong storms in Iowa, thethermal gradient, and aspects of latent heat could displace thehigher QPF amounts in Iowa, vs Minnesota. The current run of the GFShas this scenario with bands of higher QPF amounts in eastern Iowa.The EC doesn`t show the convective bands, and therefore QPF amountsare higher in Minnesota vs, the GFS. These differences will affectthe total amount of snowfall over the weekend."
The large t-storms in Iowa could strip moisture away from Minnesota.
And the latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0q0vJBje54
Great video. Bill trying to get Mr. Novak to tell a snow total is like news reporters trying to pry info out of people about what's going on in D.C. "Nice Try." Thanks again for the info. "High potential for over a half foot" is good enough for now.
Thanks for doing the video! Love them always!
5 p.m. local newscasts metro: Ch4/6-10 inches; Ch5/6-9 inches; Ch11: 4+ but waiting to see how models align before predicting anything more. Off to watch the video, now!
Great video. Spoiler, it includes a dog and a loud phone. The jet stream analysis is always interesting. If this thing really comes together maybe we will see an updated video Friday? I was encouraged to hear of the potential for rain next week(sorry PWL)
We should all focus on one storm at a time, but I know people like to look ahead(and Im guilty of that at times)but lets not forget just because it shows rain/warmer for the midweek system next week doesn't mean that's whats going to happen. Just with this system coming in on Saturday if you recall it was trending rain/mix initially with the EURO model and has since trended more snow,even the GFS was all snow then went to a warmer solution and now all show snow. So in regards to next week things can obviously change but that too looks like another healthy major storm. I just peeked at the latest GFS for that storm and it trended back more south and east bringing the heavy snows back towards the metro, so lets focus on Saturday first shall we.
Agreed Ed. Only reason I brought up the next storm is I’m tired of the snow and am hoping for rain. Otherwise I’m selling the golf clubs!
Why is my noaa weather radio still forecasting "13-18 inches total storm accumulation" for the Twin Cities on Saturday/Saturday night?
This is the first storm that I have really dug deep into this winter, and frankly I see two very big red flags.The first of those is the wind field Friday night into Saturday morning from 500mb and higher. Those winds definitely are originating from the eastern pacific, and the humidity charts are clearly showing that. At those levels the winds do not pick up any gulf moisture as they stay oriented from the west-south west. So that red flag question is will the moisture coming off the pacific actually remain intact as it passes over the Rockies??? I have serious doubts say 6 in 10 chance that it does.The lower level jet, where most of your lower level moisture transport originates from is quite different, it definitely picks up moisture from the western gulf of Mexico during the overnight on Friday. That is a very good development for snow lovers.The other red flag is what will happen over Iowa overnight on Friday and early Saturday. Vertical Velocities at the 850mb level are very strong over Iowa. While severe weather is not likely over Iowa, strong thunderstorms look to be widespread over the Hawk-eye state. With the upper level winds screaming over Iowa from west to east, I am very suspect that we will get any upper level moisture. And with the storms over Iowa I wonder how much low level moisture can make it to the metro.I am beginning to tamp down my expectations of this storm, but we need to wait until the short term models come out to try and solve the mesoscale solutions before we call for a major event for the metro.
Great comments, Randy. I was asking Tom some of those questions on the video, particularly the west-to-east orientation of upper level winds.
Thank you for your analysis, Randy.
Hey Randy, love your comments as always! You have any thoughts about the storm mid next week, I know way out but I also know you like looking at those teleconnections, Yesterday you mentioned we do this again and again(in regards to snow) but the look of things the forecast for next has trended warmer/more rain.
GAME ON! Winter Storm Watch just went into effect thru noon on Sunday for 8-13”!
My little NOAA radio is still spitting out 6-8 inches metro Saturday and 4 inches at night, but 16-20 inches total. Why, why, why? PWL must have learned a new dance or two this winter.
I see you 00z EURO for mid week next week.....I know I know one storm at a time but man it dumps as much snow if not more then this weekend’s for the metro. If these two storms are direct hits I’m going on record and saying this will be the worst ever spring flood season on record for Minnesota!
I wonder if @PWL will be able to contain himself when he reads the NWS discussion this morning where it reads “potential for another monster storm next week”
I'd rather not hear about it. A presumed adult peeing their own Depends because of snow is very disturbing.
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So I asked the nws about the storms over Iowa pulling moisture away from the snowstorm and they said they have already taken that into account and they still think we'll see a foot plus of snow.
I'm not sure if the dynamics are exactly the same, but these back-to-back storms remind me of the 2 storms that hit in late Feb/early March 2007 and were only a few days apart. Both produced at least double-digit snow totals for a wide area in MN, IA, and WI. With some spots hitting 20+”!
Looks like NWS is latching onto the NAM model which is laying down 12-16+. Does anyone know how the NAM has been performing this winter? GFS and the "always" reliable Canadian model seem to be factoring a warmer storm with less snow even though QPF is still quite high
The 06Z GFS is plotting 10-11" at MSP, via the Kuchera Method and the 10:1. This would be right in the middle of the Winter storm warning of 8-13"https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Can someone remind me of or link to the data about our seasonal snowfall and maybe a top ten list of seasonal snowfall for MSP?Thanks
top 10 at MSP:http://climateapps.dnr.state.mn.us/doc/journal/top_ten_snowiest_winters_msp.htm
Here you go Joel, we will be climbing that list shortly:Top Ten Snowiest Winters in the Twin Cities 1884-2011 ------------------------------ 1. 1983-84 ....... 98.62. 1981-82 ....... 95.0 3. 1950-51 ....... 88.9 4. 2010-11 ....... 86.6 5. 1916-17 ....... 84.96. 1991-92 ....... 84.1 7. 1961-62 ....... 81.3 8. 1951-52 ....... 79.0 9. 1966-67 ....... 78.4 10. 2000-01 ....... 75.8
Nice. Thanks for posting that. And we currently stand at 62.4 inches at MSP airport. Single day snow record for Saturday, March 9 is 10.9 inches in 1918/for Sunday, March 11 the record is 4.2 inches in 1956.
Ah, now I see 'the why' of Joel's question and why the total from last year wasn't on the top ten: because the chart says 'through 2011' so it is missing a few winters since then. :+)
The current season data can be found here:https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mpxJust click the orange go button and a popup will appear with the data
Didn't we have like 78" last year?
According to this link, you are right, Joel F. 78.3 inches last year. Hmmmm. I will put the link address here and hope it works for you/everyone https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/historical/acis_stn_data_monthly_table.html?sid=mspthr&sname=Twin%20Cities%20Area&sdate=1884-07-01&edate=por&element=snow&span=season&counts=no
Thank you.So...78.3 gets this year into the top ten. 70" gets it to 17th place.We currently stand at 62.4"
You are welcome. Yes, NWS has 62.4" currently MSP snowfall total to date this season.
We might as well shoot for all time record of 100" this season. Let's get it done by 4/1/2019 please. Bring it.
I live snow too but another 40 inches this late in the season. I might be ready for the fun of thunderstorms by then!
I know one should not put too much worry into predictions from Weather Channel but for Faribault they show 1 to 3 inches Saturday during the day and 1 to 3 inches Saturday night. They seem to believe far more rain will fill in then NWS which has the 7 to 13 inches in their location forecast. Are any models left showing rain/sleet reaching as far north as Faribault?
Weather Underground shows 5-8” Sat and 1-3” Sat night for Faribault.
They updated almost minutes after I posted. In line with the others now.
From the NWS discussion regarding next week's storm:"Regardless of the track and precip type, itshould be another high impact event with lots of QPF. 00Z EC hasshifted east and now brings predominantly heavy snow to MN, whilethe GFS maintains a western track and brings a period of snow atthe onset before turning to rain across the CWA. Impacts couldrange from significant snow accumulation to flooding. Still waytoo early to tell."This is nuts.
The storm next week will be all RAIN. Temps will surge well into the 40s by WED/THUR.
Uuggghhhh!!! That is going to be messy!
Unfortunately, no matter what this spring is going to be messy.
Sheesh. A Hennepin County judge put forth a 'funny' restraining order against area meteorologists, Old Man Winter and 'Mr. Snow' today. Sigh. Kind of insulting. If you have a subscription you can see it online and/or if you haven't used up your 'free looks' this month, here is a link. :+(http://www.startribune.com/a-foot-of-snow-hennepin-county-judge-issues-restraining-order-vs-winter/506828561/?fbclid=IwAR2FSRTgqQvdYOIi9Fq7AemIKRuHj97cBfRDIDhsRpRJ3FIPiIzsgVZqQK4
Novak you baffle us, you tell us when in doubt go with the EURO, the EURO this morning was burying MN next Wednesday it’s updated run still has snow then mix/rain for most of Minnesota with temps mid to upper 30’s, nowhere near the 40’s to 50 you are proclaiming, you sound so sure of yourself when you say “all rain” like your placing all your chips on the GFS because they say all rain. Can’t have it both ways Novak, can’t say when in doubt go with the EURO and then go all in with the GFS.
Call this one a "gut feeling". Hey, sometimes the Euro can be led astray; not often, but...Listen, the pendulum has to swing in the other direction at some time. Plus, the upper-level winds are screaming straight out of the Gulf of Mexico. This is a scenario for lots of clouds, moisture, fog, & seasonably WARM temps no matter how much snowpack we have.
Au contraire. Forecasting is still an art and Tom's decision which model to favor shows he's using his noggin. I'm more interested in his being right than which model he relies on in a given scenario.
NWS has also been saying in their forecast discussions they expect the ridging ahead of the storm to not be as aggressive as most models are showing.
Well, the metro has its winter storm warning. The low-end total is 'just' seven inches, with the high end all the way up to 15. Quite a spread. Is that because of the warm air or because it is hard to pinpoint where the 'most' precip will fall (kind of like when it's pouring rain in St. Paul but just drizzling in St. Louis Park?) or maybe both? As always, it will be an interesting storm.
Probably both. I was in the bullseye for them yesterday but everybody has brought forecasted totals for my area (Carver co) down, to about half (or less) of what I was seeing yesterday.
Happy Friday! Any changes?This day in weather history: 20 years ago, March 8, 1999, a surprise top ten snowfall for the Twin Cities. That was a fun storm...something on the order of 16" where I was living on the east side of Saint Paul.
Speaking of changes, NAM gets less and less with each run, now 12z drops only 6” at MSP
Who wants to hop on the BUST train? Basically all models very close to having thermal issues with the NAM leading the way with dropping totals to 3 inches in the core! Sounds like a fun time ahead :)
Yikes!! Say it isn't so!!! I will be dancing a new dance soon--learned it this past week in case this situation came up! C'mon--bring it!
NOAA 'regular' online forecast still has that 7-15 and Novak's FB map has a solid 7-9+ metro, so yeah, I'm not giving up on this one, yet. There are definitely many saying it won't be much snow, though. That's common. Keep dancing, PWL.
A new video would be nice
Well I said a few days ago (before being bashed by the 'so-called' experts that it was just useless hype)..In any case regarding the thermal issues the he NWS discusses this very well in their detailed forecast:"...models are generating a stronger warm layer between800-850 mb just in advance of the onset of heavy precip. Thiscould lead to a brief period of a mix as far north as RedwoodFalls to the Twin Cities, but it is unlikely to have much of animpact on total accumulations. Given the strong lift and heavyprecip through this shallow warm layer, it should be quitedifficult to keep a mix going for more than an hour or two acrossmuch of the area with dynamic cooling and wetbulb processes inplace. Models are hanging onto it for too long, particularly theNAM.
When I saw the latest NAM, I could hear Novak in my head saying not to put too much weight on short term models, and “dynamics don’t lie.”
Read the AFD:The major winter storm is on track for this weekend. Little haschanged overnight, but there are a couple things to note. Theensemble low clustering has tightened and there is almostcertainty with a track from northeastern KS to southeastern WI.This is a slight shift to the south from previous forecasts.Despite this, models are generating a stronger warm layer between800-850 mb just in advance of the onset of heavy precip. Thiscould lead to a brief period of a mix as far north as RedwoodFalls to the Twin Cities, but it is unlikely to have much of animpact on total accumulations. Given the strong lift and heavyprecip through this shallow warm layer, it should be quitedifficult to keep a mix going for more than an hour or two acrossmuch of the area with dynamic cooling and wetbulb processes inplace. Models are hanging onto it for too long, particularly theNAM.
Low end of my point forecast has dropped to 6". It had been 7 or 8 since totals first showed up in the forecast.
Now the high end is down to 12" from the 13-15 it's been.
Mr. Novak's 10 a.m. Friday map is lowering snow totals southern MN but hanging tight with 7-9 inches metro and other locations.
And that is due to the ice, he says.
Storm trending warmer and warmerSnow trending lower and lower.Once again all the hype of the previous days was hardly justified.
Fake News!The metro area will still receive 6+” of snow!
This thing looks like it's falling apart. NWS down to 2-4" on their point forecast in the Owatonna area.
That’s not because it’s falling apart; it’s because the warm air is riding further north. That area is going to see more rain/mix/ice, not less precipitation. It’s March; it happens.
I hope you don't get the ice. :+(
I wouldn’t trust the NAM model with a 10 foot pole, it’s newest run(18Z) has 10-12+ amounts in Iowa and Illinois and Southern Wisconsin that are not even in a warning or advisory, well south of the watch area. Upped the metro core to 6-7” but buries western and central Minnesota with over 16”, this model is so erratic it shouldn’t be followed. Thoughts!
NAM did something similar with the last snow “bomb”. Seems all that energy gets it excited.
No surprises here folks! People were saying it all along. Never trust the hype or it will burn you.
"Never"????? That has not held true this winter. I'm with PWL below. :+) "welcome back"........ We've had a lot of snow for all those 'bust' forecasts.
Funny how the "bust" people are making a comeback. Welcome back! We have wondered you have been over the past 6 snowy weeks!
I love the anonymous bust people. I can barely see the road in front of my house after all of these busts. This storm is far from over - it is behaving very March like. Will be curious how the temps end up and where the most snow hits.
Now down to 5-9" for Minneapolis
This will end up being less of a storm for Minneapolis than every one we got in February...if it keeps progressing as it currently is.
That is still a healthy heart-attack heavy chunk of snow. And I think there will be precip prior to it being snow. It's setting up to be a mess.
I need my Novak fix. What do you think Novak? Video or anything? Would love that!! Bring it!
What irritates what you arrogantly call the "bust people" is the hype when nobody knows what is going on. Calling for 12+ inches 4 days in advance.This is the problem.From a tweet to the NWS today (not me) but someone I agree with:"From 12+ to 3-6? Why don't you just keep quiet until you know what's going to happen? Instead you cause fear and people cancel plans. You cry wolf too often nobody will listen to your nonsense"And of course Tom Novak will tell us that it is part of the professionalism of weather forecaster to "alert people of the potential of a storm".But the problem with this approach is that there no certainty anyway and so there is no need to alert people on something that may or may not happen.Otherwise people will stop listening.As the tweet mentions, a lot of people will have cancelled their plans for nothing.This what irritates the so called "bust people". It's the arrogance to pretend to know in advance what will happen and hype it just to drive interest.
I don't think people are full of arrogance. Many of us are weather-lovers here to learn, and some of us are trained (not me) in weather. And some local stations are still saying we will get 1" of precip tomorrow through Sunday morning, so depending on the warmth factor, it is still a lot of precip. Watches/warnings are good, and Mr. Novak on the whole is very accurate. Sometimes he is also accurate several days out, which I do not label arrogance. This storm is trickier because of the warmth. The word 'never' means 'never' and that is what is irritating... it 'never' snows in the metro is not true, is it? And 'every' storm is not a 'bust' is it? We have set a record or two with snow and temps this winter. It DOES snow here. I agree that the numbers NWS was spitting out on my NOAA radio earlier this week were insane. I love snow as much as the next person, but if we get half of it in 'rain' tomorrow and the other half in snow, fine. It's a mess out there. Drains are covered with ice/roads are ponding. No one can know for sure and in advance the exact weather that will materialize, but with technology, guts, and history, forecasts can help and save many, many people both time and sometimes their lives. That's my two cents.
Look I actually do not disagree with your points, but what I am trying to say is slightly different and (although it may seem counterintuitive) it is actually consistent with you are saying:It is exactly because of the uncertainty in weather forecasting and the usual refrain “a lot can and will change between now and the event” that it does not make any sense to create so much hysteria about a storm “potential” several days in advance.Until the TV stations will adopt a fully probabilistic way of forecasting (yes, the NWS started doing this but I believe they should make it more visible and educate the public more to it), and the public themselves get used to accepting this kind of uncertainty (which probabilistic forecast will evolve), screaming out headlines like the one I saw all over the place earlier this week (including on this blog) DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE to me.It is actually detrimental to the function of keeping the public aware of what is coming, because once you get the perception of crying wolf you get the opposite effect. We have seen this with the issue of people do not heeding Tornado Watches/Warning until too late as they were overused.So, it is exactly because “this storm is trickier” or to paraphrase Novak often “there will be a tight gradient” that hyping is useless.Personally ithas nothing to do with snowstorm vs rainstorms or any other weather event. I feel the same unease about next week storm and the some apocalyptic flooding that some people are already talking about.It’s not being wrong about a forecast that bothers me. It is the hyping when you actually do not know and cannot know what really is going to happen.I really hope probabilistic forecast will become the norm soon.Hopefully this would make sense
Yes per your last line. Thank you for your detailed response.
I'm with ya!
Well the 0Z run of the HRRR model is showing the rain changing over to snow faster. I do agree with this, personally I think most of the models don't handle dynamic cooling very well, especially under heavy precipitation.
QPF remains high. All about the temps now. Curious to see the Euro and it’s temp predictions.
The real problem is that there are too many cooks in the kitchen when it comes to weather forecasts; that includes me. It would be nice to weed out the pretenders & keep the serious, hard working, devoted forecasters.
BTW, this is already a beautiful looking storm on satellite & it hasn't yet pulled out into the Plains. For some reason, that concerns me a bit.
Concerns you how? More snow, moisture loss, higher temps, loss of energy...?
Ruth, I read it the same way....Tom, does the satellite beauty concern you that it could bust or explode?!
Sometimes I feel that, if it is too good to be true...it is. Storms go through stages. You don't want a storm to mature too quickly. This tells me that the storm has the potential to lose intensity as it pulls NE into the Great Lakes. I still think we will get hit hard in MN, but it is a red flag.
Well, see, it just doesn't snow in the Twin Cities anymore, so this storm will probably bust. I'm seeing green spots in my yard for crying out loud! Snow drought indeed!
Dude you ok? What are you smoking, and not sharing! You been living under a rock for the last 6 weeks? What snow drought,what green spots? I guess you just like trolling.
I can't imagine how MSP won't be able to get at least 8 inches of snow. Yes it will start as rain but the HRRR model is showing that band of heavy snow just pivoting right on top of MSP. If this verifies expect significant amounts of snow.
Bummer next week's storm will be a rain storm (1-2 inches of rain!) What a great snowstorm that would have been! I know it's March, but I was hoping that we wouldn't have to start dealing with rain until later in the month. The end of winter/first half of spring is definitely my least favorite time of year in Minnesota. I hate cold rain, melting snow and the large ponds of water that form on the roads and elsewhere.
Midweek system will end as accumulating snow, just a gut feeling as of now, not really forecasted by anyone. The below average temperatures will stick around for awhile after Wednesday’s 40’s, there’s a good chance we may not climb above the daily average right thru the end of the month, average high by March 31 is 48. So with the cooler weather around this will not be the last snow event we track this season!
Now, it all comes down to 'Dynamic Cooling'. The sooner the atmosphere cools due to intense precipitation, the more snow will fall. If MSP doesn't experience a change-over by 6pm, then it will be time to drop snow totals.
The NWS has increased totals again and more confident it will all snow. Removed mention of wintry mix for my location poit forecast (Woodbury).From the latest TAF:KMSP...Precip will arrive between 19-20Z and the latestindications are it will be mainly snow. Still made mention of amix for the first couple hours, but this chance is diminishingsome. Heavy snow expected for the evening before rates graduallytaper off late.
Cmon peeps. We are on the verge of a significant weather system with some questions in place regarding amounts, etc. Bring the dialogue. I live for it. Bring it!!
I hear you, PWL, but I must admit it feels like Spring outside. It doesn't have that snowstorm feel. As a snow junkie, I will keep my fingers crossed. I'm not looking forward to the anticipated huge rainstorm next week. I would prefer to not have a storm if it's going to be 1-2 inches of rain. Uuggghh, fingers crossed for the storm missing us and for our area going into a slow controlled melt. There is nothing positive about heavy rain on top of 2-3 feet of snow and frozen ground.
Steady rain in Faribault so far. Starting to loosen up some of the packed ice in the road intersections.
Hard to get snow at 36!
Not looking good for significant snow in the metro core! I would start dropping those inches way down, somewhere into the 2-4 range. Your big winners will be areas due west/southwest/northwest of Minneapolis, that is where the precip on radar is very organized very heavy and the dynamic cooling will be realized, the core looks to get a piece of the action but the brunt of that arc of precip is moving north-northwest not east-northeast. “B” word will start flying!
Suspecting the easterlies to shear out some of the moisture ...maybe lowering dews and humidity , keeping mid level from forming dendrites out hereIt may be a deep low pressure system but it also caused anomalies I reckonJust a hunchThanks,txunit28
NWS grids for metro core still mentions only snow.And it is raining in the western half of the metro core... Ridiculous.Hard to believe 6-8 will be realized.Not concerned about the movement of the precip as that is what you would expect given the current position of the low and cyclonic flows around low pressure systems.
Radar has shown snow here in Carver County for an hour, but it’s doing everything but snowing. Mix of moderate sleet/ice/rain. Temp up to 36, so I don’t anticipate that changing anytime soon. Hubby did find the storm drain this morning, so that’s good I guess?
BUST BUST BUST BUST about time for spring.
BRING THE RAIN!
Oh my... Every time there is even a chance it will bust in MSP fully grown children come out to play.
Exactly. On FB they would have to show their names..... well, to me this storm is not a bust. The temps spiked higher than predicted, and if this rain were all snow, how glorious it would be. Let the 'busters' say whatever. And "whatever" re: 'bust' for this storm. It is fascinating to watch and follow.
Sleeting here in Plymouth. This will be my last post. It's getting ridiculous trying to post on here anymore. I go through the verification process of selecting the traffic lights, buses, fire hydrants, etc. to verify I am a human. However, I keep receiving the prompt to try again. It takes several minutes sometimes for my post to be accepted. Bill, I love your site, but I don't want to spend several minutes trying to verify my posts each time I want to comment. Is anyone else having this issue, or am I the lone "lucky" one? Thanks
I'm actually not that familiar with what's involved. I don't know if anyone else has had that problem?
On my little MAC no problems, but when I'm on a phone it is tougher at times.
It’s HELL on a phone.
Actually Bill it’s reverse for me, my phone is pretty quick at verification but the work/home computers take forever.
Just drove from Bloomington (MN) to St Louis Park. Rain all the way and oh that it would or could be snow. :+( NOAA is telling me it is 38F in SLP right now. It is NOT A BUST. It is a BUMMER. We will still get snow, but not the totals snow-lovers were wishing for. And I repeat: the precip is NOT a bust. Mother Nature is having fun turning up the heat is all.
That’s an exact definition of bust! At least admit it, forecast was for a lot of snow, which is not happening = bust!
I guess we don't see eye to eye, Joe. Forecast was for a lot of some type of precip, and just because it is labeled 'snow' v 'some snow/some rain' to me that is not a bust per se. But that's okay. I do agree w/those who say it was kind of (mildly put) ridiculous my NOAA weather radio was putting out 15-20" snowfall totals many, many days ago. But I don't see today as a total bust.
Hi Bill, I am having similar problems as @Schnee Meister in posting on this site. I agree that it is getting a little ridiculous taking multiple minutes to verify.Snow totals falling quickly for the core. Now NWS is displaying possibly 6 inches. This is the third adjustment downward in the past 24 hours, which initially was showing around 12 inches. Raining steadily in Minnetonka, no sleet or snow mix, just plain rain.
Total Bust. Not even partial or maybe... total bust.
NWS has been atrocious with this forecast, up then down then up now back down again. Just a few hours ago they said it would be mostly snow in their aviation update, I haven’t seen one flake, nothing but two hours of rain in New Hope. What a dumpster fire this turned out to be!
NWS just tweeted out this elaborate explanation of the rain/snow line and how the radar “sees” it. How about just send a picture of the rain with the caption “BUST”! I don’t need some scientific explanation of way your forecast is failing. As professionals I would expect a correct forecast at least by this morning. You have all the tools at your fingertips and this morning my area(New Hope) was squarely in your 8-12” or 8+” graphic that they kept tooling with.
Totally agree @dumpster Fire, and to think we’re sitting in an Winter storm warning for heavy rain! Smh
I agree that the NWS has done a terrible job forecasting this storm. Dumpster Fire spelled it out correctly. I am very disappointed with the job the NWS has done in this matter, including having the Winter Storm Warning going into effect at noon. A big swing and a miss! Btw Bill, I see what some of the posters are talking about in regard to taking so long to post their comments on this site. I clicked all of the icons multiple times before my post got approved. What's going on?
There is a lot dumping on forecasters going on right now. What I am going to say here is not an attempt to add to it. That said, here are my thoughts and why I was pessimistic about this storm on Wednesday. These ‘southern’ storms that wrap up into a ‘classic’ cyclone very rarely end up with the bullseye of snowfall over the metro core. There are many reasons, I’m sure, but it seems the most likely reasons are that they can access and draw in lots of warmer air and that the axis of heavy snow is generally small or narrow. I don’t think we should ever count on these types of storms to produce the amount of snow we snow lovers desire. It is a rare occurrence. It happened once last Winter (in April) and hasn’t happened this Winter for the Twin Cities (but it did happen to Rochester). February is a great example of this. Almost all of our snow came from smaller systems with good dynamics, but not from powerhouse storms. That is how the Twin Cities get their Winter snowfall. It is only occasionally that we hit the jackpot with these powerhouse storms.
Still raining > Maplewood, MN! Yes I’m in a warning too!
The change over to snow is starting to speed up. Expect the metro to be all snow within the next hour.
Good. The ponding (due to most drains covered in snow/ice) is really bad in St. Louis Park. At least snow can get moved. How do we move the water?
Sleet in Minnetonka
0.0” in SW Minneapolis as of 5pm! Getting closer to that 6” warning threshold!
Lots of sleet in St. Louis Park and let me say: I prefer snow. I can shovel snow. People can plow snow. There is a LOT of ponding on sidewalks, on streets, in parking lots, and it's getting slippery out there. I wish it had all been snow. It's going to be a difficult night. And tomorrow isn't going to be easy, either.
Nasty thick sleet here in Central Bloomington.
Change over to snow in central Carver County happened right around 5:00. Big wet flakes, but not what I would call heavy snow in regards to intensity. We also have terrible ponding on our street.