Friday's storm dynamics are hard to ignore. Only red flag appears to be lack of deep moisture. However, in situations like these...with such Cold Arctic air in place, this storm should do a real good job of wringing out every molecule available as snow. I simply can't imagine that the MSP metro will not receive at least 3"-4" of snow.
This storm has the potential to significantly over-perform.
Tomorrow should be interesting! Novak just posted 4-6+” straight thru the entire metro which is a sure bet advisory or even a low end winter storm warning and yet NWS has neither. Yeah I read their discussion about road temperatures but come on do you ever remember a time when they used that as a excuse to administer headlines. Again with their perfection stuff on headlines is horrible!
Yes, NWS is still sticking with 2-4" in my neck of the west metro woods. Hmmm. Mr. Novak mentions the overachieving aspect. "Time will tell." Putting out his snow totals this close to the event means to me this is a tricky little system.
It is interesting that NOAA has only graded itself on one snow event this winter per its criteria. And that storm was in December. Seems like ancient times. And seems like there should have been something to grade in February, including the blizzard. https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winterstormgrades
Snow coming down nicely in Long Lake area! The system seems to have picked up some steam since coming into MN. The radar looked pretty light at 630am, but there are some heavier bands forming. Let’s see how this shakes out!
It looks like, at least for southern and southeast Minnesota, this storm simply does not have enough moisture to produce the snow amounts that many are claiming. In Owatonna, there has been really nothing more than flurries and light snow since 10:30. Very little accumulation, maybe 1/4"
I'd say I have about an inch in St Louis Park w/snow still coming down/moderate bands on the radar/advisory still in place til 9 p.m...... Maybe Mother Nature wants to give Owatonna a rest. What's interesting, though, is that NWS is still saying 3-5" for you in Owatonna, with only 2-4" forecast where I live.
Coming down very heavy right now in Lino Lakes area. Measured 3.5” light fluffy snow at about 3:20. Shoveled for ten minutes and asphalt driveway is all white again.
35W northbound closed starting around 3 pm from Lexington Ave all the way to the 35 Split. Before that large number of cars in ditches and spun out. Doesn’t look like they are plowing it or trying to reopen at this point. Limited camera coverage though.
This system is definitely over-performing for many of us, especially from the core MSP metro on north & west. I'm sure that some locations will be measuring 6"+ when all is said & done this evening. Truly an impressive storm that should've been hyped a little more. I can't imagine what the pm commute is like for some.
Yes, Mr. Novak. I've been watching your accuracy for years, and you do an amazing job of nailing the snow totals almost every single time. Woo hooooo. A lot of my friends follow you on FB, now.
Took the words RIGHT outta my mouth. No lie, there is a lot of snow in St. Louis Park, and it's still pouring. I can't even tell I shoveled. Keep dancing, PWL.
Damn it!!! I really wished this was a leap year. We could be challenging our all time snowiest month ever right now! I like breaking records especially when you get soooo close. Oh well the snow is surely coming down nice and pretty! Good job Novak!
Just heard Laura Betker on KARE 11 say that we got more snow than they were predicting, which was 3-4 inches. She showed some 5 and 6 inch reports. I would like to point out that Mr. Novak nailed the forecast again (4-6+ inch forecast)! Nice job, Novak! We appreciate your expertise!
This points out the problem with many of the TV folks. They look at the latest model runs, read the numbers, and they have their forecast. Dahl seems to at least take chances, probably because he’s done it for so long.
Novak is having a superstar like winter. Pretty amazing and he has explained his reasons before the storms. I hate all of the snow (sorry PWL) but it has been fun to watch the storms.
Now can we please warm up so I can think about golf?
I have a handful of rules that I live by when 4casting winter storms. They are: - Always forecast from the top of the atmosphere then work your way down. - The last parameter you should focus on is model QPF. (Don't trust it). - Dynamics rarely ever lie. - Concentrate on jet streaks & know how to utilize them. - When there is no guidance consensus, place more weight in the Euro.
Oh, one last rule...and it is an important one. - Don't be lazy! Just looking at QPF and/or potential snow output from a guidance & going with it will ALWAYS get you in trouble. Justify your 4cast with hard work & evidence = put time into your 4cast.
Thanks for sharing how you do your forecasts (not that it all makes sense to me ha ha)..... I think it's also an 'art' and not just science in that you make it work right for you based on that configuration of rules above, and you are very gifted at it in the winter. Truly gifted at putting the science, smarts, models and rules together time after time. I am happy I discovered this blog and your forecasts several years ago, and I thank Bill for having this blog up and running.
Yup, especially Saturday looks like a negative tilted powerhouse panhandle hooker headed our way. Heavy snow with blizzard conditions not out of the question in fact chances are increasing but were still 6 days out....
Weather channel app already has 4-8” for Saturday, a little premature in my opinion but it shows the potential is there! Keep watching everyone my gut feeling is your snow piles in your yard will be getting much higher.
NWS has some skin in the game already for Saturday. Going with a “snow likely” forecast and saying in their discussion another impactful accumulating snow event is “trending up”. Buckle up!
KARE11 weekend weather person said there was growing confidence for significant snow Saturday. Typical TV nonsense. It’s almost a week out. GFS shows decent show, Euro is a little more north. Too early to get excited. At least it will be getting warmer.
Yeah, it's already getting a lot of hype. I asked on Mr. Novak's FB page if there are any 'signs' because of all the talk about next weekend... but I haven't had a chance to go back into FB to see if there is a response. I can't believe how many times we have said to Bill, 'Time for a new thread' the past month due to snow, snow, and more snow. :+)
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For tomorrow’s system....
ReplyDeleteBrickman on CCO: 1-3”
Barlow on ch5: 3-6”
I will add Lynch on 'CCO radio: 3-5"
DeleteFriday's storm dynamics are hard to ignore. Only red flag appears to be lack of deep moisture. However, in situations like these...with such Cold Arctic air in place, this storm should do a real good job of wringing out every molecule available as snow. I simply can't imagine that the MSP metro will not receive at least 3"-4" of snow.
ReplyDeleteThis storm has the potential to significantly over-perform.
What does that mean?, when you say significantly, give us a range like 6-8” significantly?
DeleteWell, if most outlets are saying 1"-3", you can at least double that. I envision a 3"-6" snow for many of us.
DeleteFri forecast for Flying cloud just went down from 3-5" down to 2-4"
ReplyDeleteTomorrow should be interesting! Novak just posted 4-6+” straight thru the entire metro which is a sure bet advisory or even a low end winter storm warning and yet NWS has neither. Yeah I read their discussion about road temperatures but come on do you ever remember a time when they used that as a excuse to administer headlines. Again with their perfection stuff on headlines is horrible!
ReplyDeleteYes, NWS is still sticking with 2-4" in my neck of the west metro woods. Hmmm. Mr. Novak mentions the overachieving aspect. "Time will tell." Putting out his snow totals this close to the event means to me this is a tricky little system.
DeleteAnonymous: the WWA has now been posted for the TC metro 9-9 tomorrow (Friday); 3-5" predicted. Just saw it online.......
DeleteIt is interesting that NOAA has only graded itself on one snow event this winter per its criteria. And that storm was in December. Seems like ancient times. And seems like there should have been something to grade in February, including the blizzard. https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winterstormgrades
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSnow coming down nicely in Long Lake area! The system seems to have picked up some steam since coming into MN. The radar looked pretty light at 630am, but there are some heavier bands forming. Let’s see how this shakes out!
ReplyDeleteWHOA! The donut around the TC metro on the radar right now...dry air most likely the culprit?
ReplyDeleteHave faith. The radar is beginning to fill in around the metro......
DeleteI like filled donuts. And it is filled......
ReplyDeleteBring it!
Ha ha ha! Me, too! Filled donuts and radar :)
ReplyDeleteVery light snow here in Shoreview currently.
ReplyDeleteHeavy snow in Eden Prairie
ReplyDeleteBeautiful steady moderate snow in Plymouth. No wind!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like, at least for southern and southeast Minnesota, this storm simply does not have enough moisture to produce the snow amounts that many are claiming. In Owatonna, there has been really nothing more than flurries and light snow since 10:30. Very little accumulation, maybe 1/4"
ReplyDeleteI'd say I have about an inch in St Louis Park w/snow still coming down/moderate bands on the radar/advisory still in place til 9 p.m...... Maybe Mother Nature wants to give Owatonna a rest. What's interesting, though, is that NWS is still saying 3-5" for you in Owatonna, with only 2-4" forecast where I live.
ReplyDeleteComing down very heavy right now in Lino Lakes area. Measured 3.5” light fluffy snow at about 3:20. Shoveled for ten minutes and asphalt driveway is all white again.
ReplyDelete35W northbound closed starting around 3 pm from Lexington Ave all the way to the 35 Split. Before that large number of cars in ditches and spun out. Doesn’t look like they are plowing it or trying to reopen at this point. Limited camera coverage though.
ReplyDeleteAt least 4” on the ground in Long Lake area, with more falling.
ReplyDeleteThis system is definitely over-performing for many of us, especially from the core MSP metro on north & west. I'm sure that some locations will be measuring 6"+ when all is said & done this evening. Truly an impressive storm that should've been hyped a little more. I can't imagine what the pm commute is like for some.
ReplyDeleteHyped a little more by some. You, of course, did a great job letting people know that the dynamics were there to make this an over-performer.
DeleteYes, Mr. Novak. I've been watching your accuracy for years, and you do an amazing job of nailing the snow totals almost every single time. Woo hooooo. A lot of my friends follow you on FB, now.
DeleteThese must be absolutely perfect conditions for snow. Really coming down now in Eden Prairie.
ReplyDeleteVisibility is the same as during the 2/20 storm right now.
DeleteNovak is DA MAN!!!!
ReplyDeleteTook the words RIGHT outta my mouth. No lie, there is a lot of snow in St. Louis Park, and it's still pouring. I can't even tell I shoveled. Keep dancing, PWL.
Delete4 inches and counting in Plymouth!
ReplyDeleteWOW! Cool.
Delete5” in Lino lakes area at 5 pm and still coming down hard.
ReplyDeleteDamn it!!! I really wished this was a leap year. We could be challenging our all time snowiest month ever right now! I like breaking records especially when you get soooo close. Oh well the snow is surely coming down nice and pretty! Good job Novak!
ReplyDeleteJust heard Laura Betker on KARE 11 say that we got more snow than they were predicting, which was 3-4 inches. She showed some 5 and 6 inch reports. I would like to point out that Mr. Novak nailed the forecast again (4-6+ inch forecast)! Nice job, Novak! We appreciate your expertise!
ReplyDeleteAs of 7:15 p.m. tonight NWS MSP airport: 3.9"; Chan: 4.0"
ReplyDelete5.1” near Long Lake. Lightest snow I’ve ever shoveled!
Delete5.5” Golden Valley
ReplyDeleteMany locations close to 6”. Did anyone but Novak forecast that?
ReplyDeleteMSP airport final for yesterday: 5.6"; Chanhassen: 5". Excellent forecast from Mr. Novak.
ReplyDeleteAnd, I'd like to add one more bit of data: MSP airport snow totals this season: 62.4 inches: 20.3" over the normal average
ReplyDeleteThis points out the problem with many of the TV folks. They look at the latest model runs, read the numbers, and they have their forecast. Dahl seems to at least take chances, probably because he’s done it for so long.
ReplyDeleteNovak is having a superstar like winter. Pretty amazing and he has explained his reasons before the storms. I hate all of the snow (sorry PWL) but it has been fun to watch the storms.
Now can we please warm up so I can think about golf?
I have a handful of rules that I live by when 4casting winter storms. They are:
ReplyDelete- Always forecast from the top of the atmosphere then work your way down.
- The last parameter you should focus on is model QPF. (Don't trust it).
- Dynamics rarely ever lie.
- Concentrate on jet streaks & know how to utilize them.
- When there is no guidance consensus, place more weight in the Euro.
Oh, one last rule...and it is an important one.
ReplyDelete- Don't be lazy! Just looking at QPF and/or potential snow output from a guidance & going with it will ALWAYS get you in trouble. Justify your 4cast with hard work & evidence = put time into your 4cast.
Thanks for sharing how you do your forecasts (not that it all makes sense to me ha ha)..... I think it's also an 'art' and not just science in that you make it work right for you based on that configuration of rules above, and you are very gifted at it in the winter. Truly gifted at putting the science, smarts, models and rules together time after time. I am happy I discovered this blog and your forecasts several years ago, and I thank Bill for having this blog up and running.
ReplyDeleteMore snow talk later next week! Thursday and Saturday has snowy potential near MSP! The winter that keeps on giving....
ReplyDeleteYup, especially Saturday looks like a negative tilted powerhouse panhandle hooker headed our way. Heavy snow with blizzard conditions not out of the question in fact chances are increasing but were still 6 days out....
DeleteWeather channel app already has 4-8” for Saturday, a little premature in my opinion but it shows the potential is there! Keep watching everyone my gut feeling is your snow piles in your yard will be getting much higher.
ReplyDelete12Z GFS already showing a foot of snow for next weekend! Potential growing.
DeleteNWS has some skin in the game already for Saturday. Going with a “snow likely” forecast and saying in their discussion another impactful accumulating snow event is “trending up”. Buckle up!
DeleteKARE11 weekend weather person said there was growing confidence for significant snow Saturday. Typical TV nonsense. It’s almost a week out. GFS shows decent show, Euro is a little more north. Too early to get excited. At least it will be getting warmer.
DeleteYeah, it's already getting a lot of hype. I asked on Mr. Novak's FB page if there are any 'signs' because of all the talk about next weekend... but I haven't had a chance to go back into FB to see if there is a response. I can't believe how many times we have said to Bill, 'Time for a new thread' the past month due to snow, snow, and more snow. :+)
DeleteNew thread for what might be coming this weekend.
ReplyDeletewell..well! Measured 3.5” light fluffy snow at about 3:20. Shoveled for ten minutes and asphalt driveway is all white again. Minnesota Design
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