Monday, February 4, 2019

A Snowy Week in February?


February is traditionally the least snowiest of the primary winter months in Minnesota, with mother nature typically getting bored with winter before winding up (some years) with a snowy March. But this year may be different. This week, for example, appears to hold promise for snow lovers. We shall see....


120 comments:

  1. Yay. New thread. NWS is still holding with 2-4 inches today metro and 3-7 spread Wed night through Thursday metro area. Time will tell. Anything beats an ice rink. Dance, PWL, dance!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'd again suggest he doesn't dance as in the past such dancing has actually reversed snow accumulations. Don't ask me why but just an observation throughout the years. So sit PWL, sit.

      Delete
    2. Appears my assessment was true.

      Delete
  2. Still holding? It was 4-6” a mere 12 hours ago.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Already snowing just west of the metro! Heard on ch4 and ch5 this morning that it wasn't supposed to be hitting the ground until closer to lunchtime today.

    Whatever you are doing right now PWL, keep it up man!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 5, 2019 at 8:38 AM

    Dancing. Dancing. Dancing!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Looking at the latest HRRR 13Z the heaviest snow is just south of the core 30 miles or so. From Mankato running northeast into Goodhue/Wabasha. West Metro = 2/3 inches, core 3, east metro 4/5, north metro 2-3, south metro 3/4 inches.

    ReplyDelete
  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The latest NAM and other convection models put the heaviest over 6+ inches from Mankato through or just north of Rochester up to Red Wing then through central Wisconsin. South West subs looks like it would get maybe an inch while then north subs might get 5.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ouch core metro! Do not look at the latest HRRR model runs.

    ReplyDelete
  10. This is such an interesting 4cast today (TUE). There is NO obvious surface low to speak of. It appears that most of the lift/forcing is in low/middle layers of our atmosphere from about 850mb on up to 500mb. In other words, this isn't your 'classic' snowstorm. However, the support up top is pretty darn good given the circumstances.

    What does this all mean? Surprises.

    There will likely be a couple of narrow but impressive bands of snow across southern MN/Wisconsin. For instance, gut feeling is that one of these bands sits over the central & northern MSP metro today. This will produce 4"-6"+ of snow while the southern metro receives little.

    I'm also worried that a 2nd band of snow will explode over southeastern MN near or just east of RST. This would be convective in nature (1"+/hour) as it rolls east into WI. This will surprise those down there.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thanks for your thoughts Tom! Boy winter has sure gotten interesting around here lately.

    ReplyDelete
  12. This is an important comment from the MPX NWS 4cast discussion:
    "Since the snow hasn`t yet developed, believe this is an issue for the hi-res guidance, so continued the course with the global guidance."

    In other words, the short term Hi-Res guidances (HRRR, RUC, etc) utilize radar data & surface obs in their solutions. The weigh heavily on this data, especially when compared to the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, etc. Now that precipitation is developing, the HRRR, RUC, etc. should latch onto a better solution in upcoming runs.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Updated forecast down to 1-2 inches for the core.
    As usual... it snows everywhere else than in the Metro core.
    Expect the same to happen tomorrow and Thursday.
    As Boring Anonymous said: we can't win this season.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where are you getting your info. from? Makes no sense at all.

      Delete
    2. You're wrong, it doesn't snow in St. Cloud anymore either. Too far north for the systems that come from the south and too far south for the Northern systems. It sure seems that way anyways.

      Delete
    3. @Novak Weather... from the latest NWS briefing...
      https://www.weather.gov/media/mpx/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

      Delete
    4. I agree w/ Novak...makes no sense. 2" has already fallen just west of the core (approx 15 miles west of downtown Mpls), and there's multiple bands of snow still poised to march through according to radar.

      I think Anonymous should just look out the window every once in a while to get weather information!

      Delete
    5. I already have 2 1/2 inches here in Central Bloomington. NOt sure why the NWS downgraded their totals. It's beautiful to watch not so fun to drive in. Stay safe and keep dancing!

      Delete
  14. Boy, gone are the days of 2010 - 2015ish when we had some good ol' weather discussions on this board. It was full of great insights from Tom, and other contributors that used DATA to support their thinking. I wonder why most of them are either gone or contribute few and far between? Who the heck wants to deal with internet tough guys. I comment once in a blue moon and mostly here for the different forecasts, opinions, and grades but it sure has gone down hill with all the anonymity, trolling and just overall nastiness. Just my opinion, carry on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Right on! I try to look past that and focus on the old-timers, the ones who explore/discuss the weather in detail, and the 'grades' for how the other meteorologists do on the local news outlets, etc. Today's snow is beautiful, light, fluffy, easy to shovel so far...... I am happy for all the snow lovers out there. Oh, and Novak Weather seems to focus more on his FB page plus has a website that seems 'new'... so these methods of communication may be taking up more of his time. It's good to see him on here, too. Onward as we finish up snow event #1 and head for snow event #2 tomorrow/Thursday!

      Delete
  15. It will be interesting when snow totals come in. They will be all over the board. Best guess is 3"-5" in the core metro. 5"-8"+ just south of the metro. Sharp cut-off northwest of the metro from STC on north.

    Meanwhile, with all the haphazard snow bursts & banding, you are going to get varying totals just within 10 to 20 miles of each other.

    Truthfully a fun & challenging snow system to 4cast.

    ReplyDelete
  16. This is crazy. I just took a glance at the Hwy. 52 camera near Cannon Falls & they have near ZERO visibility with heavy snow. 2" per hour? The stretch from Faribault to Red Wing to Eau Claire will have some impressive totals when all is said and done.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Absolute chaos here in Red Wing. Many roads are undriveable; main stretch of highway through town was littered with crashes and going at a standstill on my way home from work. Half a foot on the ground and still coming down. I wouldn't advise anybody driving if they can help it tonight around here.

    That said, for every car stuck on the road there's five people stopping their own and lending a hand. Lotta good people doing good things out there

    ReplyDelete
  18. Short notice, but I'll be doing a video with Dr. Novak at 7. Submit any questions ASAP.

    ReplyDelete
  19. New video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-3pkAelLmw

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the video! I was surprised earlier to see big and fast flakes in very cold temps. Thanks for explaining it all. I still want to know what was in the oven though.

      Delete
    2. Glad you enjoyed it! (Hoping it wasn't frozen pizza.)

      Delete
  20. Same here in Rochester. Roads are a mess and now that the snow is done it's been drizzling and making windshields and other objects a little icy.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 5, 2019 at 9:43 PM

    In looking at the models, I see most showing 12+ for this storm on Wednesday night/Thursday. Am I making things up? And, looking ahead, I am seeing another 12+ after early next week. I mean I can hardly take this. Wetting my pants.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I was repeatedly assured by those on this site that it never snows in the Twin Cities.

    What happened guys?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Reading some of the previous post's, it's interesting that some have wondered where the more detailed discussion have went to. I was one of those that posted those discussions, however this year the storms have come at such a time where I haven't had a couple days off in row prior to the start of the storms to view detailed weather maps. I have to take care of priorities on a day to day basis.

    However the raw snowfall maps have been showing this kind of results for the last few days.

    I have missed the days that I have either agreed or disagreed with DR Novak,(he cleaned my clock more often than not.)

    Current plans are for me to retire this summer and play some golf. After that I once again will have time to dig deep into winter storms. Who knows I may even upgrade my monitor to include a camera....oh my did I just say that?? Could it be that Minnesota Forecaster readers could get a chance to see my ugly mug?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That last paragraph is directed more to Big Daddy than anyone else.

      Delete
    2. Yes!....@randyinchamplin, can't wait! Bill make sure you hit up Randy for some videos next winter. I for one have missed your commentary on here Randy especially when your broke down expected snowfall in the core metro into 4 quadrants centered around 394/94/494.

      Delete
    3. Don't forget about 694 it helps me delineate the NW metro and the NE metro.

      Delete
  24. Wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a Winter Storm Warning for the metro

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 3:20 a.m. still hanging with WWA. Strange, considering all the totals, wind, freezing drizzle, and falling temps/windchills they are putting out. I agree with you, randyinchamplin.

      Delete
  25. Does anyone know the snow ratio (is the term "QPF"?) for tonight's system? I saw the GFS is laying down .33" of liquid but wondering what the ratio would be with the cooler temps.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Looks like the whole state is essentially in a winter weather advisory.

    ReplyDelete
  27. You all are talking 12 inches and WSW, but NWS is sticking to 3-6. Why the drastic difference? They going by past precedent of storms underperforming this season?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Yes I was wondering the same thing. Reading the advisory text for southeast Minnesota it says maybe 2 10th of an inch of ice and then 2-4 inches of snow. Tom N has 6-9.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If we get 0.2 inches of ice, we need to be in a warning. Monday was treacherous enough without snow on top.

      Delete
    2. "Total ice accumulation of one-tenth to two-tenths of an inch
      through tonight, with total snow accumulation Thursday of 2 to 4
      inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph on Thursday
      afternoon." Looking at the NAM and GFS I don't see where Tom could be getting these higher amounts. Hopefully he chimes in. Usually when there is ice or mix it always majorly impacts snow totals.

      Delete
  29. Wildcard is this evening. My 6"-9" totals assumes that we get 1"-2" by midnight. If not, then we need to scale back a touch to 5"-7" or so.

    Regardless of what happens this evening, I simply can't imagine that this powerful of storm will NOT drop at least 6" or so of snow across eastern MN & northern WI. We will likely experience snow rates at 1/2" to 1" per hour between the times of 6am - 6pm. That is around a 12 hour period of snow at those rates = 5"-7"+.

    Quite frankly, I'm not sure where everyone is getting the 2"-4" storm total from the NWS. I'm looking at their current 4cast for MPLS & it call for 1"-2" tonight, followed by 2"-4" tomorrow = 3"-6" or just under WSW criteria. Hence the WW advisory. I believe that the 2"-4" for tomorrow is ultra conservative, but MSP has been snake bitten all season so.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For the record my posts are from someone in Rochester.

      Delete
    2. "but MSP has been snake bitten all season so....."

      You're effin kidding me . . .

      My 20-minute commute yesterday was 1hr 5min. WTF, snake-bitten?

      Delete
  30. Eastern part of the metro has been upgraded to a winter storm warning! Lining up with Novak's prediction.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Enjoyed the video last night and watching how things are coming together today. No matter the totals, tomorrow looks brutal for travel in the metro. Hope Novak keeps posting here, enjoy his take versus the NWS.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Damn, just saw lightning at the MN/IA border on radar. Lots of energy.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Snowstorms always bring surprises but they are rarely centered in the metro core in a good way(if you know what I mean > snow). I hate to use the word bust , but I can’t find a better word to describe how I feel about tonight and tomorrow in the metro. NWS doesn’t seem to have a good handle on things been moving around with snow totals constantly. Went with a watch out west to an advisory to now a blizzard warning and then a advisory to a warning to our east and if you have noticed now not much to occur tonight and main show suppose to arrive now not till mid morning it just seems they keep pushing it back. I don’t have a good feeling they are being consistent, so I go back to my original statement that their maybe surprises in play here and metro doesn’t get much. As people say before something “smells”. We wait and see!

    ReplyDelete
  34. Just channel surfed for predicted snow totals in the metro tonight/tomorrow: Dave Dahl: 3-4 inches tonight; 3-4 again tomorrow. Belinda J: only 3 inches total; Same on Channel 4: (Matt Brickman??) 1-3 inches unless there is a shift, but he saw heavy snow 'moving more towards the east' and then Ian L on Channel 9: 3-6 inches.

    ReplyDelete
  35. So Dahl is buying the Novak theory. I like him since he isn’t afraid to be different. Game on for the Mets!

    ReplyDelete
  36. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 6, 2019 at 6:00 PM

    Hey Novak and others, I need some sort of snowfall predictions. It is right on our doorstep and need some numbers to know how much to dance. Bring it!

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hopefully it's just me being gunshy (for obvious reasons,just look at the core metro's near misses all season) but I'm starting to get that old familiar bad feeling about the metro getting any significant snow...again. I hope I'm wrong, but.... Dr. Novak, what is the bust potential for the core metro? Give it to me straight; I can take it.

    ReplyDelete
  38. I hope Novak is right, because it's starting to look like at least a quasi-bust in the core. I'm starting to hear a lot of chatter on tv of 2 possibly 3 inches. Last night I was hearing a lot of 5-7+ for the core. It's beginning to look like it's going to again be Wisconsin's storm. What a bummer season for snow in the core. We are a little island in the middle of a sea of locations north, south, east and west of us that have picked up at least their average snowfall to date.

    ReplyDelete
  39. 4casters that panic & sway with each and every new model solutions are the ones that often look foolish in the long run. Don't panic. Don't solely look at model QPF. Look at the dynamics. This storm has all the ingredients necessary for a significant snow. Someone near or in the MSP metro will get 6"+, no doubt in my mind.

    As far as "they" are concerned, I can't speak for them. I have no clue why some outlets would only say 3" max. It doesn't make sense. I'm not saying that this can't happen because anything can happen when it comes to weather. However, I feel it is irresponsible at this juncture to downplay this storm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Storm is already busting for the core, was suppose to get 1-3” with the band this evening which is falling apart as we speak and moving off to the east and as stated by others a lull till tomorrow morning. Go low on this storm for the core. 3” max!

      Delete
    2. well, here we go again. Just because downtown MPLS doesn't get 1"-2", that doesn't mean that it didn't happen. Listen, portions of the metro will get 1"-2" by 9pm.

      Delete
  40. BTW, full disclosure. It is nerve racking seeing NOTHING on radar over the Plains & Midwest yet still anticipating a snowstorm to develop out of nowhere. However, you have to trust the dynamics, and that is what I will do until tomorrow noon & we are still skunked.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NOAA site is so strange; still reporting an early afternoon 'timestamp' and yet now the WWA has extended through midnight tomorrow night in the metro area, and confusing for me (I am on here to learn about weather, so I do not profess to be any type of expert)..... confusing change in snow totals within the discussion. I believe you that snow will/can develop 'out of nowhere'...

      Delete
  41. You gotta love the folks on this site. Even AS IT'S SNOWING, they call it a bust. LOL. Don't believe your lyin eyes! Those aren't snowflakes coming down!

    Man, for a place where it never snows, we sure have gotten a lot of snow this week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. those flakes amounted to less then 1/4" so far in the core west of Minneapolis and the 3" we got on Tuesday no one would consider "we sure have gotten a lot of snow this week". Please pay attention closely, forecast for the metro core tonight was for a quick hitting band of snow to last for an hour or two and drop 1-3" that obviously hasn't happened therefore we have busted so far, lets see what happens tomorrow.

      Delete
    2. Got 2 inches out of it here in Fridley :)

      Delete
  42. It is just painful watching this storm system struggle for moisture. If we don't see radar light-up soon over southern MN, then it is time to slam on the brakes. It is disheartening when guidance continues to paint a snowy picture, yet you know something is wrong.

    Once again, this is Mother Nature making us sit on the edge of our seats. She wants to make sure we realize that nothing is easy when it comes to weather.

    ReplyDelete
  43. MSP airport = .4 inches of snow through midnight; Chanhassen just a trace 'for the books' yesterday. Looks like the main event is yet to come? I wish the cold temperatures would not be such a solid 'lock' ..... those seem to occur no matter what happens with the snow totals!

    ReplyDelete
  44. DUDSVILLE!!!!
    NWS has dropped accumulations overnight to 1/2" and the winter storm warning which was an advisory just to our east is back to advisory, talk about inconsistent waffling forecast

    ReplyDelete
  45. Agreed, unfortunately. Here in the Maple Grove/Plymouth area the forecasted 1-3 inches didn't even result in a dusting. This morning my driveway was still bare. Will have to wait to see if today is a Total BUST as well. NWS has earned a grade of "F" so far for this system. Big disappointment. This system was advertised most of the week as being larger with higher accumulations and much longer duration of snow than Tuesday's system. Now we're just hoping to even come close to matching Tuesday's total of 4.5 inches in this neck of the woods.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Good luck with getting 4 inches. Read the NWS discussion this morning. It sounds like maybe 2 inches for most of the metro. Very disappointed with the NWS and with this storm. Well, I better get ready for work now. As usual, there is nothing to see here (in the metro) folks.

    ReplyDelete
  47. As my post yesterday alluded to the NWS has been off, warnings have changed back to advisories, snow last night was pretty much nil and now the totals for today are scaled back for the core metro to 2-5". At this rate as some have said above me Tuesday could be the bigger storm. Man I know weather is not an exact science but shouldn't it be a solid forecast inside 24 hours! Just saying!

    ReplyDelete
  48. 'CCO saying 2-4 today after the freezing drizzle transitions to flakes; Ch 9 still saying 3-5..... KSTP Ken B saying freezing drizzle for about another hour and then the snow comes......he's predicting 2-5 inch spread across the metro...... safe travels.....

    ReplyDelete
  49. Hold on everyone!!
    Just because it had the potential to BUST, doesn't mean that it will.

    The whole idea was that this storm was going to ramp up this morning & we would go from nothing to heavy snow in a heartbeat. That is happening now. Again, it is Mother Nature keeping us on the edge of our seats. The dynamics are there today, we just needed them to quickly come together.

    As far as snow totals are concerned, it is anyone's guess. I'm still thinking somewhere near 5" to 6" in the MSP metro, but this could be conservative if the storm continues to explode. Add that on top of the Coating to 2" that fell yesterday evening and you get a total of 6"-8".

    ReplyDelete
  50. I think some of the schools are going to regret not closing...those are some big snow flakes and they are multiplying. Isanti

    ReplyDelete
  51. 2” so far in Maple Grove - my best guess is we got 1/2-1” overnight

    ReplyDelete
  52. So now we get to find out who was right to either lower their totals or keep their totals the same (or even talk about "surprise totals"). Maybe 2 inches in South Minneapolis not far from the airport. Hardly any snow falling right now and radar doesn't look promising.

    ReplyDelete
  53. 2 1/2" on the ground just west of the metro, and I think we got 1/2" last night. It's stacking up FAST too. If that gap in the radar doesn't slide in over us and it snows like this all day today, we're easily good for 6-7" today. Thinking schools might let out early this afternoon too. Be safe out there.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Over 30 dBZ snow fall intensity in Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Pretty much wrapping up in the core just some light snows now, so that was around 2” shot maybe another inch rest of the day. Radar returns look weak over the core and not much coming from the south but your big winners will be west of MSP, you guys seeing heavy snow line up pretty much straight north to south too bad it’s not moving much east. Another ho-hum event

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Something tells me you don't know what you are talking about, or you are just trying to stir up a hornet's nest on this board. Pretty much everybody realizes that we are nowhere near done with the snow. That 1" you are talking about will likely fall with a 1/2 hour period later this morning. I don't see how another 2"-4" of snow doesn't fall between now & 6pm.

      Delete
    2. Not hard to read/follow a radar Novak! Look at that pretty much linear line of heavy snow west of MSP, they will be the winners, it’s not moving east into the core of anything lifting north.

      Delete
    3. That area of snow will pivot.

      Delete
    4. If you were closely following radar at 3am this morning, you would've said no chance for snow today.

      Delete
    5. Mr. Novak is right: NWS just slid the Winter Storm Warning west through the metro area!!!! Check out their page.

      Delete
  56. Lovin' this dry air over MSP! Bring more of that!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NWS has put Winter Storm Warning into the metro proper!

      Delete
    2. Boom! NWS calls for an "additional 3-5"...so on top of the 3" we've gotten already.

      Delete
  57. However, I do find it amusing that the main FGEN band of heavy snow set-up over Wright & Carver counties. Just outside the core metro and/or just close enough to tease the inner ring burbs once again. I would bet some areas out in Wright & Carver counties are already measuring near 6" of snow so far this AM. Meanwhile, MPLS & STP are still in the 2"-3" range. Perhaps there is a lid over the downtowns? Ha!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did the NWS issue the winter storm warning, then, for the entire metro because of the high winds/falling to -10 temps that are coming v. because of snow totals? Thanks!

      Delete
    2. The lid for the core is REAL Novak. Would be helpful if you would finally acknowledge it during your forecasts instead of broad brushing it and then cherry picking a total that qualifies as a metro city but is like 30 miles from downtown

      Delete
    3. They upgraded because of the snow, 4-8" total forecast downtown now.

      Delete
  58. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 7, 2019 at 10:52 AM

    Just love this! Bring it!!!

    ReplyDelete
  59. I wonder of 'Busting Core' is bathing in the DRY skies he assured us of just a few hours ago. Thank God this character isn't a 4caster. He would have everyone out on the road right now still assuring them it is not snowing. Meanwhile, our 1/4 mi. visibility makes it obvious to the rest of the world that it actually is snowing outside.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Getting hammered in north metro (east Anoka county) right now. NWS seems really strange to put out graphic saying 1-2” from noon to midnight. I’m getting inch and hour right now easy. Added a measured 1.5” in last 90 mins and it’s snoing heavier than ever right now. Thanks for the regular check ins Novak!!

    ReplyDelete
  61. NOAA has upped snow totals for St. Louis Park: 5-9 inches.....

    ReplyDelete
  62. Just shy of 4.5" in Maple Grove and still coming down strong!

    ReplyDelete
  63. Not the ~10 inches we got earlier in the week, but it's coming down steady in RW and causing chaos on the roads once again.

    For the last ten years or so I've always felt like Red Wing has been a hotspot for heavy snow totals. Seems like at least a couple of the storms MN area gets every winter drop the heaviest amounts around here; maybe it's just the bias of living here and paying attention to local amounts more than others, I'm not sure.

    Just off the very top of my head, they include the Domebuster, where I believe RW was in the top 3 with around 20 inches, that freak May storm a couple years ago that dropped 17 inches and crippled town for almost a week (still the craziest storm, winter or summer, I've ever experienced here) and earlier this week.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Cool to see the radar "regenerate". Just when it looks like the system is going to fizzle over the west metro, it intensifies again! That must be the dynamics Novak is talking about with these past couple systems. The radar says one thing, but Mother Nature still wants to keep going.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Huge props to Novak for sticking in there and nailing this one. Poor guy was weeping over his radar in the wee hours of the morning. Fail to the NWS for really missing this until they disccovered it was really snowing hard. After this week I think we can officially dismiss that it never snows in the Metro, that there is a dome over the metro, and the metro always is in the dry slot. Randomness of weather is quite remarkable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly! Novak revised his totals downward on FB today... he could have stayed with his original map!!! It is/was right on.

      Delete
  66. Really amazing storm today! This blob of snow is just parked over the metro and dumping. This is what winter is supposed to be! Snow lovers rejoice :D

    ReplyDelete
  67. First, a big shout out to Novak for nailing this one!! I'm glad I listened to you. This is just one more reason why I stopped listening to KARE 11 a few years ago. I want accurate storm forecasts! Also, thank you for the updates through this storm, Novak. Second, as Stormgeek stated @3:02, this is what winter in Minnesota is supposed to be! As a snow junkie, I am rejoicing!! My property in Plymouth looks like a winter wonderland (FINALLY! LOL), and the snow has picked up in intensity in the past few minutes, as I watch in glee at the snow regenerating right over the core metro! Btw, a solid fresh 5 to 5.5 inches so far here in Plymouth to go along with our 4.5 inches from Tuesday!

    ReplyDelete
  68. I was loving the snow but one pass down the driveway and my snowblower broke. Can’t engage the auger. :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is sad. :+( Sorry to hear it. Stay safe. Shoveling can definitely take a toll on the body.

      Delete
  69. MPS wasted no time in cancelling school for tomorrow. It makes sense with the windchill combined with the streets still being in bad shape.
    What a crazy week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My street is still glaze ice from Monday under all of the fresh snow.

      Delete
  70. Per 7 p.m. NWS readings: MSP set record snowfall for this date: 5.7 inches and NWS at Chanhassen got 8.5 inches.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Where is "Busting Core"? I highly doubt that we will see his face again. If he or she has any guts they will post snowfall amounts from the back yard. One thing about this business, if your a pro forecaster or a serious amateur, you have to admit failure when you bust, and be very modest to quiet with your successes.

    ReplyDelete
  72. This winter just keeps getting better! We had two decent snowstorms within a couple days of each other and now the potential for a massive storm looks to be setting up early next week!

    ReplyDelete
  73. Novak any thoughts on late Monday into Tuesday? Not that far out and the GFS is going nuts with totals. You are the hot forecaster now!

    ReplyDelete
  74. This is a nice website that shows official snow totals from observers across the state. Sometimes they put out a call for people to join the network. Some of you may already be members. It will be fun to watch the totals that observers post today from yesterday's snow event. https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx

    ReplyDelete
  75. I wouldn’t sleep on Sunday, before we get to Tuesday’s storm. 12Z NAM puts down some 2-4” in around the metro during the day!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. While I am excited to see what Sunday brings, I am getting greedy and hoping Tuesday brings the snow to the Metro AGAIN! The latest from NWS discussion...."plowable snow at the
      least looks likely Tuesday with the potential for another high-
      impact winter storm."

      Delete
  76. With these storms we've seen the last few weeks can anyone in the know tell me what the feel has been the better model from like 1,3,5 days out? (Euro, GFS, Nam)

    ReplyDelete
  77. The next 7 to 9 days looks to be unbelievably active for winter storms. We have a chance for 2-4 inches of snow on Sunday, following a major storm on Tuesday. Then the Euro and now the GFS have another massive storm looking to form late next week.

    ReplyDelete
  78. I just looked at Paul Huttner's Updraft blog which shows to two potential systems coming up.

    Is it just me, or are they eerily similar to the two systems we just had (Tuesday and Thursday)?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Mets on Channel 4/11 in the metro are saying that in addition to the snow Sunday (a couple inches)..... Tuesday could bring another 4-5 inches, too. NEW THREAD for ANOTHER SNOWY WEEK IN FEBRUARY ... ?? Thanks, Bill. The blog was great this recent snow event.

    ReplyDelete