Saturday, February 16, 2019

Will a February Snow Record Be Set?

Snow lovers—and other interested weather enthusiasts—were watching close to see if February's monthly snowfall record at MSP will be matched and eclipsed. Place your bets.

113 comments:

  1. Absolutely! With how the jet structure seems to setup over the next two weeks there is more than enough chances to get us above and most likely well above the current record. If you were to believe the 12Z Euro run today we will have a snow depth near 3ft by the end of the next week!

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  2. Looks like it's falling apart on radar. Expected some flakes by now.

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  3. Looking at traffic cams on the southern boarder....yep it's pretty thick there. I wonder if we will get our 1 full inch as predicted by nws in my Lake Minnetonka region. The TV meets said 1-2. We shall see.

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  4. I hope by a week from today we are all cheering the gold medal for snowiest February ever so far in the metro area. It looks like there are several chances to get some inches in the next seven days. All we need is an inch or two here and there.......

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  5. Radar doesn’t look impressive at all for the core metro, lucky if we squeeze out .5-1” with this today!

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  6. With the amount of salt used the last few weeks and the pretty light intensity of the snow pretty much zero impact on the roads today, all wet.

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  7. After a few overperforming systems, an underperforming ones.
    Some friends along the I-90 corridor where up to 6 inches were forecast just told me they are struggling to reach even 2 or 3.
    It makes chasing the Feb record even more interesting.
    let’ see what the Tuesday night-Wed system brings...

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    1. i never seen any forecast for 6 inches in southern Minnesota

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  8. Just .4 at MSP airport as of late this afternoon. Well, it's better than nothing as we (half)inch our way towards breaking the record........ fingers crossed.

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  9. Mr. Yuhas says we are at 22.6 and 'every flake counts.' Record = 26.6. Oh, so close.

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  10. Mr. Novak put out a Wed map this afternoon that shows real snow potential around the metro and elsewhere. Maybe a video is coming in a day or two?

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  11. From JY @KSTP:

    MSP Forecast PM Sunday February 17, 2019 - Jonathan Yuhas KSTP Meteorologist

    *Officially we are at 22.6” of snow this Feb 2019 making this the 4th snowiest on record since 1873 – the all time record is 26.5” set in 1962 and we are forecasting +4” of snow Wednesday. A powerful potent storm with accumulating snow and high winds possible Saturday.

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  12. We will most likely witness MSP absolutely crushing the old record by far over the next 7-10 days! That is if you are to believe the latest Euro. Which continues to show significant snow on Wednesday and the possibility of a massive March like storm setup over the weekend.

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  13. No lie, Anonymous re: crushing the old record. I must be hearing things. My little NOAA radio said Wed storm totals "9-11 inches" even though its point forecast for the metro as of 3:53 a.m. is 4-7 inches. Holy SNOW!

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    1. You know what I find very interesting is, there’s a lot of talk and confidence around the Tuesday night/Wednesday system from almost ALL outlets, be it social media, TV or NWS of 4+ of snow and yet we are inside 48 hours of said storm and there has been no winter storm watch posted. Another classic example of waiting as long as possible to get it perfectly right by the NWS. Watches are just heads up for a general area they can be fine tuned as we get closer to the storm with an upgrade to a winter storm warning or downgraded to a winter weather advisory. I hate it when the NWS talks out of both sides of their mouths. Also I do realize a watch is for 6+” of snow which many many forecasts are calling for even my point forecast has 4-7”, so if 7” is a possibility as of Monday morning for a system that will begin producing less then 48 hours from now, then we should be in a watch. Extra time is always good for businesses and schools to prepare and gives parents enough time to make contingency plans for possible school closings/delays for Wednesday morning.

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    2. Do not look at point forecast.Computer generated verbiage that try to translate the hour by hour forecast. Absolutely meaningless in my opinion. Look at the winter weather page
      https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winter

      The probabilities really tell you the thinking:
      98% chance of 2" or more
      76% chance of 4" or more
      23% chance of 6" or more
      To me this is the information I really want to know.
      A watch or a warning is useless to me...because once I know these probabilities (and monitor how they shift in the next 24-48 hrs) I can determine how to plan...

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  14. I like to use Windy.com and New Snowfall just to get an idea what it thinks for snowfall (3,5, 10 days). When they are close in agreement that makes it always interesting. For instance, 10 days our for both the GFS and ECMWF both put the metro with over 18+ inches. This tells me, if nothing else, it's going to be a interesting rest of Feb no matter how it all plays out.

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  15. Nooo!! As much as I love snow I need to drive my wife to the hospital Wednesday AM for a scheduled C-section!!

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  16. What a lot of people are overlooking with their talk about a snowy week ahead and the pattern is ripe for snowstorm after snowstorm is the weekend system drags up a lot of warm air, so much so that temps get to freezing and above and our snow becomes a slopfest over the weekend. We best break the record on Wednesday because the weekend system does not look promising for an all snow event!

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  17. Its way too early to be talking about this weekends storm. I'll take another crack at comes Wednesday night. There is too much time between then and now.

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  18. Hoping for another informative and entertaining video :).

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    1. It will be coming this evening around 6:30!

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  19. We will be doing another video with Novak Weather around 6:30 tonight. Shout out your questions now and we'll try to get to them!

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  20. A little less than a week ago forecasters were saying that the 2nd half of February would be dry. Now we have snow chances 6 out of next 10 days. Why were the models last week so wrong?

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  21. @Bill, this kind of goes with what Anonymous was saying at 9:10am this morning about probabilities of snow and my comment about winter storm watches. I find this a riot and not sure if Novak is willing to comment on other people’s graphics but if you could look at the latest graphic coming out of the NWS it is very confusing and I did a double take.
    Both Rochester(38%)and Mankato(34%) are under a winter storm watch respectively, those percentages are for 6+” of snow. The Twin Cities????, 37% and no winter storm watch!
    I find that confusing and misleading and wonder if Novak has any comments on that. Thank you

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    1. Good question! I think the NWS could best answer that. Maybe I'll tweet 'em up on that.

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    2. Here's what they tweeted back to me: "The Watch was drawn in the area of highest confidence for the higher snow amounts based on the info we have right now. Most areas will likely end up in at least an advisory if it plays out as models have it right now regardless." I still don't think it all makes sense to me...what is % if not an expression of confidence?

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    3. And they replied with this on FB: "The snow probabilities are generated mainly by blending various model sources, whereas our Watch products are "hand drawn" by the forecasters. The Watch was chosen where it is based on what the forecaster's confidence was, as well as collaboration with neighboring offices. We don't purely use the percentages to guide the product." That actually makes a bit more sense....

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  22. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 18, 2019 at 5:37 PM

    Thanks Bill and Novak. Can’t wait!!! Bring it!!

    Question: It seems like these storms lately are hard to predict amounts and they bounce around depending on the met and the forecast discussion. Seems harder to nail down these storms (amounts) then in past years. Any reason for this?

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  23. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 18, 2019 at 5:39 PM

    And.....what about this coming weekend? I hear Friday talk and then I saw Novak make a comment on Facebook that Sunday looks interesting. I would LOVE to hear more about those dats!!! Bring it!!!

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  24. Reading the NWS discussion they seem conflicted on amounts of snow MSP will get because of the varying model solutions. Seems like anywhere from 2-7”. So what is Novak’s model of choice for Wednesday?
    NAM/CMC/GFS/EURO

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  25. Here's the link to our just-completed video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scRxBWEnNXY

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    1. Great video. Thank you! Shared on FB, too. It's awesome to watch Novak's audience grow and grow and grow.... just like his forecast numbers over the years. Again, great stuff. It's fun to learn about the weather from those who know it well.

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  26. Some of you who have been long term readers of this blog know that I put a great deal of weight on the various telleconections and how the models are reacting to them. A couple of days ago the models were showing a great deal of snow over the next 10 days, but the telleconections were telling a different story. According to them the snow track should be pushed to our se, and some of the models reacted to that and pushed the heaviest of snow this upcoming weekend to our se (most notably the Euro.)

    However now most of the teleconections are now hinting at the possibility of a major winter storm effecting the Upper Mississippi Valley this weekend, and the models are reacting to it, even the Euro. Is it possible that we could see 40" this February? I think the chances are around 7 in 10 that we will.

    If you know anyone with travel plans this weekend, alert them travel by car could be extremely difficult to virtually impossible.

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    1. Randy I think you just caused PWL to go out and buy 5 new pairs of pants. Haha lol.

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  27. I agree with everything that Tom said in the video about Wednesday, it's never a slam dunk two days out but.......

    No lets move on to this weekend. I would alert you to the following link. Its not copied into a photo sharing site so it will change when the model updates.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f120.gif

    This is what the Euro thinks the pattern will look like Saturday morning at 6am. I draw your attention to the upper left corner map, this shows trough's and ridges at 500mb or around 18,000 feet. First of all look at strong sub tropical ridge south and east of Florida as shown by the black solid lines. They depict strong clock wise winds. Look how that ridge than extends well north into the Ohio Valley, even into Wisconsin and Minnesota. Looking just to the north of Lake Superior you can see the winds flattening and becoming more zonal showing a west to east flow. Going further to north and slightly east of there you can look at the black lines arcing north between Greenland and Eastern Canada, once again this shows a somewhat strong ridge. Every thing east of us looks like a very formidable blocking pattern.

    Now let's look to our SW and you can see the storm over the OK/TX Panhandle. This is going to eject out to the NE and will likely flatten the ridge to its NE as it does, however because of the blocking ridge both to the SE and the NE it will have no way to escape to our SE, and will likely get slowed down as it reaches the Green Bay area due to blocking over Greenland.

    This looks very encouraging for a major winter storm effect the Upper Mississippi Valley.

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  28. That escalated quickly....right on que as Novak said warnings are flying well west of metro and north including the core for 6-9"! Buckle up!

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    1. Exactly. I like in the video the reference to 'who do you trust?/who do you listen to?' NOVAK, NOVAK, NOVAK. Here we go. Buh Bye February snowfall record Twin Cities.

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    2. Crazy. Novak predicts the Winter Storm Warning will move NW and it does. So two rounds this week in theory. Wow.

      I type this from Fort Lauderdale where the dew points are in the mid 70s. Hopefully Mother Nature will le me back in town Friday.

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    3. I swear half of MN is in FL right now. Safe travels back.

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    4. my wife and I is a couple of them 8-). after 55 years, we are tired of the winters in MN. I do miss it already but the winters of 12/13, 13/14, and 17/18 did me in. My wife got an job offer she couldn't refuse and here we are - 84 today

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  29. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 19, 2019 at 6:01 AM

    I have done it. I made the Target run to get Depends and several new pairs of pants. This. Is. Incredible. Back to back to back to back to back to back ....systems. I can hardly manage myself. Bring it!!!!!

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    1. I wish there were like and ha ha buttons on here like on FB. Yes. This is great, all this snow.

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  30. Let's say the two storms this week pan out for the Twin Cities.

    Can we make a run at the 46.9" monthly snowfall record set in November 1991? We'd need 24.3" between now and the end of the month.

    I think these storms would need to max out over the Twin Cities for that to happen.

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  31. But it doesn't snow on the Twin Cities.....

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    1. I know, right?

      Two record snowfall months in the past year mean nothing.

      Here's hoping we're in or entering a stretch of snowy Winters such as we had in the 80s.

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  32. So this is pretty amazing, if not so relevant. I'm in Santa Fe, New Mexico (where tomorrow's storm is directly moving from). We had a winter storm warning for 6-8" of snow... we've gotten 17 flurries. Evidently, the big mountains here can create difficult-to-forecast snow shadows. So there's a problem one doesn't have in Minnesota....

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  33. And it snowed in Las Vegas which is amazing!

    Tomorrow looks like a solid 7” storm but the weekend seems to be losing a title steam (only another 6”or so). New thread for the weekend storm later tomorrow Bill?

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  34. MSP schools just closed....watch the dominos and other schools fall in line now!

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    1. Yup. St. Paul closed now, too.

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    2. I don’t know. I think most will wait until morning. Mpls/StP and Anoka-Henn are unique due to their sizes, poverty, etc. I also know that MSP are having legit issues with snow removal and safety/mobility in residential streets.

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  35. Here is a comment from last month:
    AnonymousJanuary 30, 2019 at 9:08 AM
    Echoing @Boring Anonymous:
    "What a disgrace of a place the TC have become for snow lovers:
    Useless -30 then mid40s and RAIN of course, then back to below ) and dry.
    How disgusting!
    Worse possible place to live for snow lovers.
    Twin Cities winter = biggest fraud in the history of meteorology!"

    To that I say: maybe it was warm and weird for a spell, but it sure is winter again. And not boring, and not 'the worst place' to live for those who love snow.... at least not this year. I know we can all get frustrated at times with how the weather doesn't seem as it was in the 'good old days,' but this has been one amazing month. PWL dance, dance, dance.

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  36. Yes, exactly.
    I am that anonymous and as a snow lover I hoped that by saying that it would usher in exactly what happened. A lot of snow. Which I love.
    So I don’t regret posting that by a bit.
    I’ll do it again, and will do it again next winter if needed as it seems to work.

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    1. Ah, kvetching in the hopes that the opposite will happen. I am glad it worked out. :+)

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  37. WTH does poverty have to do with a school district closing! Do better!

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    1. For some kids, school lunch is the only hot meal they get. That’s how it matters. Do better!

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    2. What does poverty have to do with schools closing?

      1) appropriate winter gear
      2) a parent who will drive the child or provide a safe/warm car to wait in
      3) a parent available to make sure the child gets on the bus safely
      4) the opportunity for a parent to find alternative arrangements so said parent can go to a job that undoubtedly doesn’t have the greatest PTO.

      I don’t need a lecture about how poverty is affected by adverse weather. I’ve been an educator for 15 years, including the inner city.

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    3. And let me add, complexities with late starts and early releases that smaller, less impoverished areas don’t face, like a kid having a safe place to go until school starts or after it closes early. The sheer number of kids in large urban/suburban districts along with the unique needs of certain groups within those districts makes timely planning imperative. For a lot of them, the only viable choices are fully opened or fully closed. There isn’t really logistical space for an invetween, and the more lead time for families, the better.

      I’m now in an exurban district. We have the “luxury” of winter weather closing options thanks to our size and community make-up.

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    4. Schools are closing fast and furious now...I have kids in a Minnetonka school and Robbinsdale school and they both just closed and I got notification minutes apart.

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  38. Shakopee just closed and the NWS bumped totals to 6-12. Nasty day coming since it will snow all day. Best of luck everyone from Orlando (just left Fort Lauderdale). Due points in the 70s all over down here. Muggy believe it or not.

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  39. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 19, 2019 at 9:09 PM

    Locked and loaded! Dancing, wetting my pants, and can hardly handle myself. This is incredible! Bring it!!!!!!!

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  40. 1/2 inch of snow at this time. Hopkins Main and 17th

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  41. Taped 0.6 inch at 394 and Louisiana.

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    1. thank you.. I enjoy your taped measurements.... trying to decide if to go out or stay in.... looks like some heavy bands are headed towards the metro.

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  42. Taped 1.1 Eden prairie at 212 and prairie center Dr. At this time.

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  43. You can already tell where the "golden shovel" award will go with this storm(most snow), well west and south of MSP, lets say Mankato and points west and slightly north and south from there. The DBZ is just tremendous over there(dark greens on radar)and hardly moving. Thunder and lightning over there wouldn't surprise me either.

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    1. Cool. Aren't there some heavy bands headed this way, though? I just shoveled what we got in St. Louis Park (didn't/don't take measurements as I'm not trained for it)..... and it's coming down at a good clip, now. With how the radar looks, can't we get another 5-9 inches?

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  44. 1.5 inches at this time taped Minnetonka at 7 and Williston road.
    I'm glad you like the measurements.
    Just a note. We are a plow company so we measure on the hard. (Parking lots)
    Measurements can be taken anywhere but we only plow asphalt not the tops of garbage cans or on people's decks. Amounts may be higher on those due to non melt. We measure in flat open areas and take 4 measurements from varying spots in our lots and average them. Enjoy the snow and be safe.

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    1. Thanks for that additional info on how you do the measurements. I got my weather spotter training, but nothing for official measuring... too windy near my townhouse for anything accurate, I'd imagine. I can't wait to see your measurements in my neck of the woods later today/tonight! Keep measuring/ keep plowing/ have a safe day.

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  45. Solid 2 inches Minnetonka 7 and 201

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  46. Snowing as heavily as I've ever seen right now in Eden Prairie. Visibility is about 1/8 mile.

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  47. Yeah, as I look at the forecasts and predictions through next week..... where are we going to PUT all this snow? It is just amazing. I can't wait to see Novak's next predictions for the weekend storm and then for what might occur the 26th/onward.

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    1. I hope we can make a run at the record. What an accomplishment that would be for a month with only 28 days.

      This storm is performing well...and right over the metro...but it never snows here.

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    2. The snow is absolutely exploding near Long Lake right now. I can’t even see 200 yards out my backyard windows. Keep it coming!!

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  48. The intensity of the Halloween blizzard reached 984MB. This weekend's storm (GFS runs) shows it at 981MB when it reaches SW Wisconsin and 976MB when it reaches Lake Michigan. Wow! Strong!

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    1. I was just looking at the GFS for LaCrosse this weekend, and it's laying down almost 2" of precip on Sunday alone, and 990MB! Looks like they might be a little on the warm side to get all snow, but that's an INTENSE storm!

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  49. In the last 15 minutes it's gotten outright dark here in SW Minneapolis. Heavy downpour/thunderstorm type of dark. I'm loving this snow day!

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  50. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 20, 2019 at 10:22 AM

    This. Is. Awesome.

    Bring it!!!!

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  51. Ok ok Mother Nature I’m officially not bored anymore! You have brought back the snow mojo in MSP this February!

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    1. There he is....... wondering what happened to you boring? we started out slow but wow has it gotten active in a hurry! enjoy the snow.

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  52. 7 1/2 inches here in Central Bloomington and still snowing like gangbusters! Love it!!!

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  53. I must admit I got very excited last night just reading the word 'bombogenesis' in the mpx forecast discussion. Today the reference to the weekend storm reads 'near bomb cyclone'. I'm still enjoying today's snow but looking forward to talk of the weekend.

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  54. I'm giving an A+ to guidance on this storm, especially over the last 48 hrs. I can't believe how spot on the solutions were.

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    1. We are pretty much done with the good stuff. Only expecting an 1" or so from here on in.

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    2. Have you started to look at the weekend storm?

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    3. Weekend storm is looking like a dud, south and east.

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    4. The weekend storm being a dud is 100% inaccurate.

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    5. It will be, just watch and thank me when I am correct.

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  55. "According to the National Weather Service, 7.8 inches had fallen at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport by noon Wednesday." After some nice muted sun, another snow band is pushing through my part of St. Louis Park............

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  56. Directly from the NWS discussion about Saturday’s storm...for those worried about it’s recent southern shift...

    Deterministic track guidance is pretty consistent taking the low
    across northern MO into southeastern WI. Usually this is a bit
    south of the ideal track for heavy snow locally and the forecast
    overnight has trended in that direction. It should be noted that
    highly negatively- tilted systems and strong cyclones tend to
    migrate northward as time closes in.

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  57. Don't get your hopes up. My name explains it all.

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  58. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 20, 2019 at 6:25 PM

    Ok. New thread needed for Friday/Saturday system and then new thread for Saturday/Sunday system and then new thread for Tuesday/Wednesday system. By the end of these new threads, I will be able to sew some new underwear for me! Bring it!!!!

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  59. PWL paramedics are on the way.

    That said, would like a video for the entire weekend. Hint, hint.

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  60. Just looked at the Euro, radical;y different than the GFS for the weekend. It has the storm more south and then exploding over Wisconsin.

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  61. Novak stated on FB that he definitely NOT sold on a Winter Storm for MN this weekend. Bust potential is high right now.

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    1. Yeah the weekend storm has definitely shifted away from MSP a lot, enough so that it misses Minnesota entirely. Sorry PWL you don't get your back to back to.....(you get the point), Im sure theres more then enough in your yard to play and dance in. I believe the NWS hyped this sense that storm after storm after storm will hit our area in their discussions and the hazardous weather outlook statement as well as the several "likely" wording they like to use often when in fact it looks like todays storm is really the only one to hit the entire area(especially the metro) with Fridays snow going to western/central MN and the weekend system hitting Iowa/Illionis/Wisconsin. Its been a record breaking February lets just enjoy that!

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  62. As soon as you all speak of the system this weekend moving away. It shifted shifted SIGNIFICANTLY further to the north west with the latest Euro run. This storm is too far out to be claiming it won't happen in MSP. Hell even the NWS said these storms tend to shift north west as the storm nears.

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  63. Models maybe trending backs towards MSP for another big snowstorm over the weekend. 12z NAM took a big jump back NW compared to its 06z run. 06z has heavy band of snowing going from eastern Iowa right thru central Wisconsin(cutting the state in half), current 12z run has that heavy band(with more qpf I might add)running from now central Iowa thru the SE corner of Minnesota thru west-central Wisconsin, so roughly about a 125 mile jump to the NW. One more jump NW and MSP is back in play for another snow dump. I wouldn’t let your guard down yet on this one just because models moved it away, they are shifting a lot and there’s plenty of time for more shifts!

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  64. Time for a new weekend storm thread??

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  65. Will set up a new thread. Also hope to do another video this evening.

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