Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Winter appears poised to assert itself in the form of an early November snowstorm. What say you?
GFS 18Z just coming in and it continues to show a decent amount of snow. Ditto with the NAM. Very tight line of snow which makes the bust potential high/. How can we go from 70 degrees to 7" of snow? Stop it Minnesota!
I think it’s full-scale Minnesota to be folding a laundry basket full of shorts when a Winter Storm Watch is issued!
I am thankful that we had one heck of a warm week for voting. And yes, 2020 is something else..... and Tuesdays look to be 'the day' of the week when we possibly get significant snow events. Goodbye shorts til when...............
Yes!! My dancing in shorts looks a lot like dancing in pants! They both work to bring it!!
Novak is going 'live' on FB tonight 8 p.m. for those who are on FB. "Interesting snow/ice set-up" for Tuesday........
Here we go!! A winter storm is on our doorstep - I need the discussion to keep happening to keep me going! I think this storm with outperform and we will get 9.5 inches at the airport as the official reading. The stationary front will cause the storm to slow a bit, giving usa longer period of some banding. Otherthoughts? Bring it!
Yah, I've been watching this site, but people have been quiet. I come here to get updates from those that have access to the computer models and glean from their insight.
If you have internet access you have access to the models. One nice source - pivotalweather.com
Watching this site is good for big snow anticipation. Many let downs and whining when it doesn’t. And little real forecast potential. About sums up years of winter here. Summer is non existent.
Are we at all concerned about a dry slot for the Metro?
I think a dry slot scenario is a real concern and could draw a line between the haves and have-nots in the Metro. It looked like the slot was taking shape, but now appears to maybe be filling in...so maybe it was just temporary.
Yeah, I was hoping for 5+ inches to break today's snow total at MSP airport, but I don't think we will get it because of the temps. I missed an update Novak video on FB today. The ice rain..... yuck!
Looks like an ice skating rink out today here in my Twin Cities suburb. Here is a link to the statewide reporting snow totals. Someone in Hibbing got 8.7 inches; my favorite Richfield observer is reporting just 3.5 inches and .49 total precip ..... the list of precip/snow totals will grow as reports come in today. https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx
Wow. I just checked and MSP airport recorded 5.5 inches of snow, so I guess the airport set a snowfall record for Nov 10.
Snow Squall Warning! This is a first that I can remember here in Minnesota. And the wording in the NWS Special Statement is alarming. This is awesome!! Bring it! What a nice surprise. Bring it!Feels like we live in Buffalo!
Celebrating 30 vehicles wrecked and burned, personal injuries, some severe. Millions of dollars in damage. 8 hours freeway closed. There is something wrong with you and your constant celebrations. Bring it! Surprise!
Oh calm down karen...its not like he could look into the future and see a car pileup because of idiots that are driving to fast for the conditions...
We get squall lines year round.Nothing new as far as weather.Same as wind shear just lateral with precip.All in all, just nws has a new warning. Good for tall trucks trailers to watch out for.
I did not celebrate this. What happened there is horrible. I did not even know that happened until later that night. I was excited about the weather and the first ever (as I learned later) Snow Squall Warning for my area. I think that is something to be excited about. Next time, please don't take my words and make them into assumptions that I never even thought. Thank you.
Celebration of imminent danger...I dont get it
Look for a major snowstorm late next weekend somewhere near the Upper Midwest to include Minnesota....obviously who gets the direct hit is way too early to tell but something for us winter weather enthusiasts to keep an eye on to see how it evolves!
I dont know what novak is smoking saying the highs will be 57 and 60 tuesday weds.
Just a slight correction....he has those temps for Wednesday and Thursday, I agree though those temps seem high....we may flirt with a 50° midweek. Side note: Potential still there for a weekend snow system as I alluded to a few days ago but percentages have decreased. Thanksgiving week looks warm, like shorts weather(btw I wear shorts in the 40’s +)
Dave Dahl’s thoughts on this coming weekend: (he sounds 50/50) Look for another change to move in by late week. A large wave in the jet stream is forecast to slide into the center of the country, which will draw up a lot of moisture over the Upper Midwest, starting out in the form of rain late Friday. The rain should change over to snow on Saturday, and possibly some significant snow on Sunday. It’s still a long ways out there, so changes are likely, but it might be a system worth watching if you have travel plans. Temps will cool down along with the change over to snow, so highs on Saturday will more than likely stay in the 30s, with low to mid-30s expected on Sunday.
NWS thoughts on this coming weekend: (they sound like 30%)This front becomes important over the weekend as it will tighten upconsiderably and provide the path for what looks to be a fairlyheavy precipitation event Saturday into Sunday as a couple jetstructure moves out over it. We`ve seen two camps develop withexactly where this band will set up. The GFS/GEFS have the heavyprecip axis lined up from roughly Omaha to Green Bay, with theECMWF/EPS having this axis more KC to Chicago. Moisture along thefront looks anomalously high, with GFS PWATs up to 250-300% ofnormal along the boundary. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the potentialfor over 2 inches of QPF within this QPF axis, it`s just a questionof where it ends up. A GEFS solution would bring some healthy QPF tosouthern MN, while the EPS, to borrow the previous discussionsanalogy, would have a forecast outcome similar to what would happenif you over cook your Thanksgiving turkey. Stayed with NBM pops,which resulted in an increase in values across south central andsoutheast MN, thanks in large part to what the GEFS shows. For p-type, the predominate type looks to still be rain, but we will be onthe north end of the precip shield in the cold air, so you can`tcompletely rule out what a couple of the GEFS members show withheavy snow ensuing. It will be something to be watched over the nextfew dry days.At this point there’s potential for a snow system....but nothing concrete or imminent....I’ll give it a 40% chance at this moment for snow in the metro. As always time will tell.
This morning's 06z GFS run for this weekend looks very interesting and kinda goes with what bigdaddy has been posting above. It shows a swath of heavy snow going from southern MN into central Wisconsin with 12"+ totals with the Twin Cities on the northern edge of the snowfall with just a couple of inches at this time. Lets see what the other models say later today.
Sounds like new thread time!
Nothing rally happening close to home.
It looks like the system Taco Belled on us...(Went south of the border)
Yeah looks like nothing much close to home, perhaps some light snow Sunday AM hours. Definitely had promise with earlier model runs, oh well we keep looking! On a side note if you procrastinated on cleaning your leaves you get another opportunity starting now.
Tuesday is looking interesting!
Everyone likes seasonal rain......
Tuesday still looking interesting.....Euro has a cosmetic inch of snow in and around the metro overnight tonight....but brings in a decent 4-6”er for Tuesday. We’ll see what happens....I hope you all got in some last minute yard work this week....I did the last of my leaves today....I really hate leaves...cleaned them up 3 times this year, ironically between two snowfalls!
Tonight’s 00Z model runs for Tuesday:GFS: 0”EURO: 4-5”CANADIAN:4-5”NAM:5-7”These are numbers for in and around the metro.Let’s see what changes tomorrow!
Tuesday has become pretty much an non issue on the models, possibly an 1”. GFS for the win on this system.
I wouldn’t throw in the towel just yet for Tuesday if your a snow lover....I always say if a system is close anything is possible and usually with snow there’s always some sort of surprises either with accumulations or track or precipitation changeovers. Let it play out
Im call8ng it....Brown Holiday Season
Excellent! We should be easily able to get in our Thanksgiving football game. It'll be a small one this year, of course, but green grass is always a welcome site on Thanksgiving.Bring it!
Oh boy what? Do you see anything white on the horizon? This weather is so odd........ but then, it's 2020!
Hey Bill....even though it’s a week+ out, can you please humor us with a new post to discuss next weekend’s storm? We need this.
Oh boy...shot at middle 50'sSnow's overrated this season
Is everyone avoiding commenting on the Fridley winter storm because you don’t want to jinx it? Is this the weather enthusiast version of “not talking to your pitcher in the middle of a no hitter“?!
No one knows where the storm is going to hit yet.
Looks like both the Euro and GFS have the snow well to our south and east. Milwaukee and Chicago look to get it-
It was fun while it lasted.
Yeah, I just looked at noaa and even the chance this weekend is now 'gone'...... what a year. I walked around a metro lake this afternoon, and to not see any ice except a little bit by the shore is astounding to me. I mean, it's 12/8. "When I was a kid" I swear we'd be skating on the lake by now. Maybe it's just a faulty memory. But JAW, yeah, I'd be afraid to jinx the chance for some white stuff by getting excited/posting here. Weird 'fall/winter'.....
Sorry team....this one’s on me. Should have just kept my mouth shut! 😬
It's okay. We all (mostly) love winter, including the snow. Now it looks like tomorrow we can break the high temp record of 45 for that date. "Maybe next time." A relative just noted that he has never been able to keep riding his bike this late in the season.
I obviously don't know where your relative lives, and I'm not trying to be obnoxious, but I know our memories can play tricks on all of us sometimes. The high temperatures in Minneapolis for the first 8 days of December 2015 were 34, 36, 35, 47, 44, 40, 46, 42. December 9th through the 16th then had highs of 47, 47, 39, 41, 40, 39, 35, 41. The high temperatures for the first 8 days of this December were 37, 43, 41, 43, 40, 35, 34, 39, which actually is one degree colder than the same period in December 2015.
He lives right here in the Twin Cities metro. Well, to copy and paste from Paul Douglas's blog today: "Climatologist Mark Seeley has been tracking climate and weather trends and admits it's not your grandfather's December anymore. He says 70% of all Decembers since 2000 have been warmer than average, and the warmest Decembers since 1895 have been observed since 2001." So no, I don't take your data as obnoxious, but Seeley's data shows that winter is definitely like the 'good old days.' Today I think we will break a record high for this date because it's 'only' 45 in the MSP area. Time will tell. Thanks for the stats from 2015. Looks like my cuz will be biking for many more days around here at the rate we are going.
CORRECTION: "NOT" like the 'good old days'.... Thanks.
I thought this was supposed to be a La Nina winter, not an El Nino. I know it's very early, but this seems very El Nino-like to me.
Tim, I was thinking the same thing. I am looking for the article I recently read from the CPC that discussed the La Nina and how it was supposed to "ramp up" as we get into Jan-March and really start shaping the weather into what we'd expect from a prototypical La Nina. So they admitted that it wasn't a typical La Nina fall/early winter. Looking at the CPC outlooks, they are all projecting above normal and below avg/avg precip until they get to the 3 month outlook...then it trends colder and wetter. I know these are just outlooks and can change, but it also points to the La Nina potentially "kicking into gear" later this winter.
Looking at the weather models for the next two weeks I don't see any change in this undesirable weather pattern, per a winter fan's perspective. I don't think it's premature to start discussing the likelihood or unlikelihood of a White Christmas this year.
I would not be surprised if this is the driest December on record in the Twin Cities. It looks like winter this season will be at least one month shorter than normal. To think, this is happening during a La Nina when we usually are very snowy and much colder. smh
El Nino reigns supreme even in a supposed La Nina year. A guaranteed brown/green Florida-like Christmas this year for most of Minnesota. Go figure...
Forecasters are predicting a couple cool down days before we go back up to around 40 degrees. In addition to my prediction of this being the driest, or in the top 3-5 driest, Decembers on record, I am going to add it will be one of the top 10 warmest Decembers also. If this is La Nina, just imagine how October-like this winter would be if this was an El Nino!
Is anybody out there?! Is there hope, any hope at all, on the horizon for winter fans, or are we doomed to continue experiencing this weather pattern until April?
Well, I'm out here, and I check the blog, but the forecasts look bleak. The seasonal outlooks show 'above normal precip' but then nothing happens around here. I am extremely jealous of the east coast and the snows they may get. This pattern here is really stuck right now. :+(
I'll say we get hit new yesrs eve
Well...I've resorted to following the nor'easter that's about to happen.
Yup. I just checked and 9-15 inches predicted for NYC and Boston and others. Luckies.
Winter of 2016/2017 was also a La Nina winter (although a weak one). That was the sixth warmest winter on record.
Hope on the horizon for winter lovers? Novak mentioned it yesterday, and it's just starting to show in the extended outlooks....a big shot of cold air on Christmas Eve. Sometimes that's preceded by snow. That's a thing!
I just watched Novak's video from last night. So you're saying there IS a chance?!?! https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-weather/dec-15-novak-weather-bitter-cold-christmas-snow-next-week
no comments for next week??
GFS starting to bring it! All coming together. Here. We. Go!!!
The GFS is an outlier, unfortunately. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't be correct, but with the way this non-winter is going I would never bet on it. Also, it appears it will actually be cold for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before the temps shoot way back up above normal after Christmas into the new year, and bone dry conditions continuing. The El Nino-like (yes, I know technically it's supposed to be a La Nina) non-winter will keep rolling along.
Would love to know what 10 day outlook your looking at. Because after Wednesday the highs after that are mid 20s...
Here you go, Ben. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
They can't predict yesterday's weather...
I used to get excited when I heard Minnesota was expecting a La Nina winter. Now "La Nina" is just another name for "El Nino".