Monday, November 9, 2020

Will Record Warmth Crash into a November Snowstorm?

 Winter appears poised to assert itself in the form of an early November snowstorm. What say you?

37 comments:

  1. GFS 18Z just coming in and it continues to show a decent amount of snow. Ditto with the NAM. Very tight line of snow which makes the bust potential high/. How can we go from 70 degrees to 7" of snow? Stop it Minnesota!

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  2. I think it’s full-scale Minnesota to be folding a laundry basket full of shorts when a Winter Storm Watch is issued!

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  3. I am thankful that we had one heck of a warm week for voting. And yes, 2020 is something else..... and Tuesdays look to be 'the day' of the week when we possibly get significant snow events. Goodbye shorts til when...............

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  4. Yes!! My dancing in shorts looks a lot like dancing in pants! They both work to bring it!!

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  5. Novak is going 'live' on FB tonight 8 p.m. for those who are on FB. "Interesting snow/ice set-up" for Tuesday........

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  6. Here we go!! A winter storm is on our doorstep - I need the discussion to keep happening to keep me going! I think this storm with outperform and we will get 9.5 inches at the airport as the official reading. The stationary front will cause the storm to slow a bit, giving usa longer period of some banding.

    Otherthoughts? Bring it!

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  7. Yah, I've been watching this site, but people have been quiet. I come here to get updates from those that have access to the computer models and glean from their insight.

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    1. If you have internet access you have access to the models. One nice source - pivotalweather.com

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  8. Watching this site is good for big snow anticipation. Many let downs and whining when it doesn’t. And little real forecast potential. About sums up years of winter here. Summer is non existent.

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  9. Are we at all concerned about a dry slot for the Metro?

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  10. I think a dry slot scenario is a real concern and could draw a line between the haves and have-nots in the Metro.

    It looked like the slot was taking shape, but now appears to maybe be filling in...so maybe it was just temporary.

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  11. Replies
    1. Yeah, I was hoping for 5+ inches to break today's snow total at MSP airport, but I don't think we will get it because of the temps. I missed an update Novak video on FB today. The ice rain..... yuck!

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  12. Looks like an ice skating rink out today here in my Twin Cities suburb. Here is a link to the statewide reporting snow totals. Someone in Hibbing got 8.7 inches; my favorite Richfield observer is reporting just 3.5 inches and .49 total precip ..... the list of precip/snow totals will grow as reports come in today.
    https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx

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  13. Wow. I just checked and MSP airport recorded 5.5 inches of snow, so I guess the airport set a snowfall record for Nov 10.

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  14. Snow Squall Warning! This is a first that I can remember here in Minnesota. And the wording in the NWS Special Statement is alarming. This is awesome!! Bring it! What a nice surprise. Bring it!

    Feels like we live in Buffalo!

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    1. Celebrating 30 vehicles wrecked and burned, personal injuries, some severe. Millions of dollars in damage. 8 hours freeway closed.
      There is something wrong with you and your constant celebrations. Bring it! Surprise!

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    2. Oh calm down karen...its not like he could look into the future and see a car pileup because of idiots that are driving to fast for the conditions...

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  15. We get squall lines year round.
    Nothing new as far as weather.
    Same as wind shear just lateral with precip.
    All in all, just nws has a new warning.
    Good for tall trucks trailers to watch out for.

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  16. I did not celebrate this. What happened there is horrible. I did not even know that happened until later that night. I was excited about the weather and the first ever (as I learned later) Snow Squall Warning for my area. I think that is something to be excited about. Next time, please don't take my words and make them into assumptions that I never even thought. Thank you.

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  17. Celebration of imminent danger...
    I dont get it

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  18. Look for a major snowstorm late next weekend somewhere near the Upper Midwest to include Minnesota....obviously who gets the direct hit is way too early to tell but something for us winter weather enthusiasts to keep an eye on to see how it evolves!

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  19. I dont know what novak is smoking saying the highs will be 57 and 60 tuesday weds.

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    1. Just a slight correction....he has those temps for Wednesday and Thursday, I agree though those temps seem high....we may flirt with a 50° midweek.

      Side note: Potential still there for a weekend snow system as I alluded to a few days ago but percentages have decreased. Thanksgiving week looks warm, like shorts weather(btw I wear shorts in the 40’s +)

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  20. Dave Dahl’s thoughts on this coming weekend: (he sounds 50/50)

    Look for another change to move in by late week. A large wave in the jet stream is forecast to slide into the center of the country, which will draw up a lot of moisture over the Upper Midwest, starting out in the form of rain late Friday. The rain should change over to snow on Saturday, and possibly some significant snow on Sunday. It’s still a long ways out there, so changes are likely, but it might be a system worth watching if you have travel plans. Temps will cool down along with the change over to snow, so highs on Saturday will more than likely stay in the 30s, with low to mid-30s expected on Sunday.


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  21. NWS thoughts on this coming weekend: (they sound like 30%)


    This front becomes important over the weekend as it will tighten up
    considerably and provide the path for what looks to be a fairly
    heavy precipitation event Saturday into Sunday as a couple jet
    structure moves out over it. We`ve seen two camps develop with
    exactly where this band will set up. The GFS/GEFS have the heavy
    precip axis lined up from roughly Omaha to Green Bay, with the
    ECMWF/EPS having this axis more KC to Chicago. Moisture along the
    front looks anomalously high, with GFS PWATs up to 250-300% of
    normal along the boundary. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the potential
    for over 2 inches of QPF within this QPF axis, it`s just a question
    of where it ends up. A GEFS solution would bring some healthy QPF to
    southern MN, while the EPS, to borrow the previous discussions
    analogy, would have a forecast outcome similar to what would happen
    if you over cook your Thanksgiving turkey. Stayed with NBM pops,
    which resulted in an increase in values across south central and
    southeast MN, thanks in large part to what the GEFS shows. For p-
    type, the predominate type looks to still be rain, but we will be on
    the north end of the precip shield in the cold air, so you can`t
    completely rule out what a couple of the GEFS members show with
    heavy snow ensuing. It will be something to be watched over the next
    few dry days.

    At this point there’s potential for a snow system....but nothing concrete or imminent....I’ll give it a 40% chance at this moment for snow in the metro. As always time will tell.

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  22. This morning's 06z GFS run for this weekend looks very interesting and kinda goes with what bigdaddy has been posting above. It shows a swath of heavy snow going from southern MN into central Wisconsin with 12"+ totals with the Twin Cities on the northern edge of the snowfall with just a couple of inches at this time. Lets see what the other models say later today.

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  23. Replies
    1. Nothing rally happening close to home.

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    2. It looks like the system Taco Belled on us...

      (Went south of the border)

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  24. Yeah looks like nothing much close to home, perhaps some light snow Sunday AM hours. Definitely had promise with earlier model runs, oh well we keep looking! On a side note if you procrastinated on cleaning your leaves you get another opportunity starting now.

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  25. Everyone likes seasonal rain......

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  26. Tuesday still looking interesting.....
    Euro has a cosmetic inch of snow in and around the metro overnight tonight....but brings in a decent 4-6”er for Tuesday. We’ll see what happens....I hope you all got in some last minute yard work this week....I did the last of my leaves today....I really hate leaves...cleaned them up 3 times this year, ironically between two snowfalls!

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  27. Tonight’s 00Z model runs for Tuesday:

    GFS: 0”
    EURO: 4-5”
    CANADIAN:4-5”
    NAM:5-7”
    These are numbers for in and around the metro.
    Let’s see what changes tomorrow!

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  28. Tuesday has become pretty much an non issue on the models, possibly an 1”. GFS for the win on this system.

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  29. I wouldn’t throw in the towel just yet for Tuesday if your a snow lover....I always say if a system is close anything is possible and usually with snow there’s always some sort of surprises either with accumulations or track or precipitation changeovers. Let it play out

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