Saturday, October 17, 2020

2020 Winter Seems Close at Hand

 Snow showers are beginning to dot the local weather forecasts. It's inevitable and pretty much on time. What are your thoughts about the upcoming winter?

41 comments:

  1. Okay, friends of the weather. Here is what NOAA is cranking out for the Twin Cities Metro Tuesday, Oct 20: "Tuesday: Snow showers before 2pm, then rain and snow showers. High near 39. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible." We shall see! Maybe it's time for PWL to start dancing.

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  2. First, welcome everyone to another hopefully fun-filled season here at TMF! I hope everyone is staying safe and was able to enjoy the "off season". As for Tuesday, it is appearing at least a couple inches for the southern half of MN is looking likely. As always, time will tell! Let's get this season off to a snowy start!!

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  3. Newest GFS showing 6+ in and around the metro for Tuesday. Interesting times if that occurs. Would be the largest earliest snowfall EVER! Go big or go home!!

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  4. The UKMET run that runs 144 hours is putting some serious snow down over the TC metro through next Saturday. Dont know how accurate it is.

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  5. So the latest 12z models are in for Tuesday and they ALL show a healthy amount of snow as follows:
    -EURO 6+
    -NAM 8+
    -GFS 4+
    -UKMET 7+
    -GDPS(Canadian) 5+

    Keep in mind 10/29/1905 was the last time we received 4+ in the Twin Cities(5.5”)

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    1. That 1905 date was the earliest 4” or more. We have received lesser snow amounts before 10/29, but this Tuesday COULD shatter the “earliest” significant snowfall. We shall see.

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  6. Oh my goodness!! This didn't come out of nowhere, but seems to be gaining strength in a surprising fashion!!

    My dancing shoes are being dusted off and shined as we speak. The dancing will commence shortly. I might need to take this slowly as I am in "out of season" form, but trust me....dancing will happen very soon. Very soon!

    Break a record - may as well! Bring it!!!

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  7. Good to be back and tracking winter entertainment with everyone!

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  8. Not to look ahead at all. But I seen on novaks page that some forecasters are already talking about a possible deadly blizzard next weekend with 1-2 feet of snow...I dont know how accurate it is but holy cow if that happens...

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  9. In these uncertain and crazy times, it's nice to see all the familiar names again! Cheers to the start of the 2020-21 snow season!

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  10. Novak video tonight at 7 p.m. on FB to discuss tomorrow's snow event.

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  11. Looks like we’re still step up for our first dose of significant snows of the season for tomorrow and a record breaker for so early in a season. All the models I mentioned yesterday still have anywhere from 6-8+” from their 12z model runs.

    Thursday appears to be a strictly rain maker for the metro with perhaps a bit of snow to finish(good, health snows with this one in northern MN)

    Late Saturday/Sunday could be another significant snow maker for Minnesota, with indications currently having Southern MN more inline for that snow.

    Interesting week ahead for sure!!

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  12. Just watched most of Novak's video on FB. I like the one comment of 'Where's Bill?' Looks to be a wild week, and he said for those who don't get 'enough snow' tomorrow to be happy that there are more chances through the weekend with possible thunderstorms Thursday, esp. in the southern part of the state. Roller coaster to be sure. He's still got the metro in the 3-5" tally. And he may do an update video tomorrow. Maybe he will come onto the blog here, and I hope I got my facts straight!

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  13. Holy cow the GFSv16 is dropping 12 inches over the TC in the run just coming in.

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  14. For tomorrow's storm, Thursday's, or Sunday's?

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  15. So what’s the dealio with the potential weekend storm? Novak is being a bit cryptic with how people should make plans, but he also called talk of a mega storm “fake news.” Thoughts? I’m a follower but not someone with the time to analyze models.

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    1. Those that were posting about a mega storm were showing run total snowfall amounts, that indeed showed close to 2 feet per the Gem, but remember that was the total for two storms. Seems as if the models are starting to show higher QPF for tomorrows event. We could see some pretty good dynamic cooling from the precip falling through the column. Wouldn't be surprised to see a upgrade to a warning.

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    2. Man I thought the same thing a bit earlier Randy.

      Welcome back sir!

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    3. Some subtle changes to the going forecast as the snow is about to fly in regards to any upgrade to a warning. Forecast snowfall increased to 5-7” from the original 3-5”. Also this was discussed in this morning’s AFD.... Hi- res models indicate the potential for a
      band of slightly higher accumulations (pushing Warning-criteria
      amounts) as 700-600mb mid- level frontogenesis flourishes between
      18Z-21z as corroborated by an impressive pocket of progged -15C
      omega over central MN.

      Going to be an interesting day with some surprises!

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    4. I would be surprised to see us upgraded to a warning. The ground is still warm; it will take awhile to stick and it will melt from the bottom up. I don't think the travel impact will be warning criteria, but I'm glad my husband is working from home today!

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  16. Ive been tracking these since Sept 25.
    Popcorn in hand
    aka unit28
    Peace out....

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  17. NWS bumped it up to 5-7 inches now

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  18. Let's just break the all-time October record with is 8.2 (?) on October 31 as part of the Halloween Blizzard.

    Let's do this. Radar is impressive! Bring it!!!!!

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    1. That would be something else! NWS has upped the evening snow totals, so anything is possible. 3-5 today and 1-3 tonight metro current forecast........

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  19. Coming down hard in Eden Prairie now.

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  20. As Randy and I suspected, we now have a WINTER STORM WARNING going right thru the heart of the metro!!
    Maybe,just maybe PWL will get his wish and break the October record!

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  21. Snowing moderately in Maple Grove/Plymouth. Everything is white! Too bad it looks like Thursday's storm will wash it all away. Although, I concede today's snowfall is early even for the metro, given the average high temperature now is still in the mid-50's. However, a guy can still dream!! Let it snow!

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  22. Just took 5 measurements here in Plymouth. All of them came in at 6 inches...and counting!

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  23. A solid 6 inches in Waconia and still snowing, though the last heavy band has moved out.

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  24. Any chance of Thursday's storm coming farther south and giving the metro more snow?

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    1. With the current trends there is a possibility MSP may receive some snow on Thursday before switching to rain/sleet.

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  25. 9 inches so far here in Burnsville with light snow still falling

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  26. What a sweet snow event. KARE11 reports that the 7.4" at the MSP airport breaks a daily record AND is the most snow recorded this early AND pulls into second place as 2nd snowiest Oct day behind the good old Halloween Blizzard of '91. Nice.

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  27. Shifts in Thursday's track continues. GFS brining wintry mix into the metro now with the snow line not far away.

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  28. .UPDATE...
    Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

    Trends from the HRRR/RAP are shedding some uncertainty into the
    going winter storm forecast. Both of these models have nudged the
    central MN snow band north a tad, keeping the heaviest snow north
    of AXN. They have also bumped QPF totals down a bit, with WAA
    precip farther southeast likely impacting quality of moisture
    available up there. However, haven`t changed the snow forecast
    much, as when looking at the GEFS plumes from 18z, it absolutely
    slams AXN over toward Mille Lacs, with snow totals off a 10:1 snow
    ratio ranging from 5-12 inches (RAP/HRRR fall below that range).
    Other bit of uncertainty the HRRR/RAP brings in is with where the
    zone of mixed precip ends up residing. Both have this zone ending
    up pretty close to Mankato up through the Twin Cities, east of our
    current advisory. That`s the bad news, the good news is the
    predominate p-type they produce with this mix is sleet, not
    freezing rain. Was on the fence about sweeping Watonwan, Blue
    Earth, Brown, and Nicollet counties into the advisory, where more
    freezing rain is depicted by the HRRR, but decided to wait and see
    if we actually see surface temps drop below freezing before the
    precip arrives.

    Looks like some uncertainty with the going forecast, my guess is the advisory will be extended into the metro due to more issues with the mix as opposed to a liquid event

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  29. KMSP...It`s either going to be 35 and raining much of the day at
    MSP, or 33 with mostly sleet and freezing rain. We`re still
    keeping things on the milder side, but we could certainly more mix
    than currently indicated in the TAF.

    The newest aviation forecast for MSP doesn’t really show much confidence for our weather tomorrow. Could be a messy one, pay attention!

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