Thursday, December 23, 2021

2021 - “Week 52” Thread

The last week of the year is shaping up to give us a few chances of snow between Christmas and the new year.


From the forecast discussion at weather.gov:


- Light freezing rain expected this morning in western WI.

- Light liquid precipitation again late tonight into Friday morning.
Surface temperature will drive whether it is rain or freezing rain.

- Light snow possible Christmas day with a stronger system for Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night. Sunday could see mixed precip all the
  way up to the Twin Cities metro with heaviest snow signal north of
  the I-94 corridor.

- Much cooler weather expected for the last week of 2021

Please use this thread to discuss anything going on during the 52nd week of the year!

30 comments:

  1. Here are my "dancing" thoughts:

    1. There will be some light snow on Christmas Day. It will be the perfect Christmas snow - light an fluffy with larger flakes. Just a coating I suppose.

    2. There will be some mixed precipitation over the next several days, but it will be minor as the cold air in place is strong to our north and this system (the one for Sunday late into Monday) is not coming from the south to pull up the warm air and wrap it up into the system. Some of the totals will be enhanced by warm air riding up over cold air. This system, I predict, will give us 6-10 inches.

    3. The cold air with be a more entrenched after the Sunday/Monday system and I think this will help make the following system (Tuesday/Wednesday) overachieve and give us another decent amount. Maybe 3-6 inches with that one.

    There you go. If the NWS can number their discussion items, so can I! :)

    Back to dancing! And, with the supply chain issues and the aging population, depends are getting more difficult to find. I need to get busy with that.

    ReplyDelete
  2. PWL, I hope your predictions are right. First, I sadly believe it will be a brown Christmas this year for about the southern half of Minnesota. Sunday's system is starting to concern me. It appears the models are reflecting the low going farther north. That would give northern MN a pretty big snow (surprise! surprise!) and the metro and south a mix (surprise...surprise). It's still three days away, so I hope that changes and the low takes the southern route.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Merry Christmas and God Bless!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Merry Christmas! Now, what is Mother Nature unwrapping for us in the next few days? Someone had a bead on the handful of systems coming and can nerd out for us? Hoping PWL gets some new dancing shoes under the tree today

    ReplyDelete
  5. Merry Christmas to all! Sure hope Santa and Mother Nature have some snowy gifts for us!

    ReplyDelete
  6. It's so quiet on here..... happy 'Day After Christmas' y'all. Are you ready for a Winter Weather Advisory in the metro tonight? Northern half of MN: gonna get walloped in your winter storm warning. "Bring it."

    ReplyDelete
  7. Snow on our doorstep!! The dancing is paying off! Here we go!

    I saw 4.2 inches for the metro, but hoping for 6" because that was the minimum I predicted several days ago for this specific snow event. Bring it - whatever it is. Bring it!

    we also need more comments on here! Let's go - snow forecasters bring it!

    ReplyDelete
  8. PWL, if you want more than a token inch or two of snow from any of these systems, you need to go north where they have consistently received the jackpot, except for the big mid-December storm in the metro that quickly melted away of course. They are getting a ton of snow up north and it is not melting away like the metro. I think tomorrow's system will be just another nuisance for the metro.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Some say go north and some say go south - when it comes to getting a snow. But the Twin Cities just got nailed in mid-December and it all averages out in the end.

    I'm not going anywhere. I am staying right here in good ol Plymouth and loving every minute of it.

    And I am dancing and starting to see some snow predictions go up for Tuesday. Novak just put out his weekly forecast and it says 3-5+ for the metro for tomorrow. (We will see his larger snow map for the specific storm come out soon I am sure.)

    Dancing working. Bring it!!

    ReplyDelete
  10. And need more more comments/thoughts/predictions on here.

    Bring them!!!

    ReplyDelete
  11. It appears Novak is being very optimistic posting 3-5+" for the metro tomorrow. I am hearing maybe an inch (possibly 2"?) for most, if not all, of the metro. I hope Novak is right. The metro needs some real snow cover.

    ReplyDelete
  12. During the 5PM news tonight on Channel 4 Chris Shaffer said 1.5" for the metro tomorrow. Western WI and the North Shore (as usual) are to get the highest totals from tomorrow's system.

    ReplyDelete
  13. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Maybe the freezing drizzle aspect of it will cut into metro snow totals, unfortunately. NWS has the metro in a 2-5 inch range even though my neighborhood forecast has just 1-3 inches. Novak has the west metro in the 1-3 inch range and says there is a lot of uncertainty due to 'dry air in place and lack of initial moisture'....... so we will see who hits the proverbial nail on the head. Stay safe/bundle up as the next cold air surges in afterwards........

    ReplyDelete
  15. We have had a few snow events overperform this year so fingers crossed today’s shades more towards the 3-“4” mark. I would like to take my kid sledding again before another above-freezing day comes along to mush things up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. however… considering it hasn’t begun snowing here and the storm doesn’t appear to plan to sit over the metro all day, I am not very optimistic on any call over 2”

      Delete
  16. No mystery as to who are the "haves" and who are the "have nots". Therefore, it should be no surprise that today the "haves" are going to get the lion's share of snow once again. For example, possibly an additional 7 inches for Brainerd to add to the boatload of snow (including the 15-18" from two days ago) they have already received this winter. Snowing very lightly here in the Maple Grove area while the radar shows a batch of moderate snow west of us moving north to the snowy promise land....up north. Sigh https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/snow_depth/index.html

    ReplyDelete
  17. A couple days ago they were saying the heaviest snow (3-5 inches) from today would be southeast MN/western WI. Now the heaviest snow is going to be as Tim above said, "up north" again. I also see the north shore has been getting pounded, but they get lake effect up there. You know you're stuck in a pattern when the axis of heaviest snow abruptly switches location by a couple hundred miles. Lucky snow fans up north!

    ReplyDelete
  18. The radar is showing moderate snowbands starting to move over the core metro. Don't give up hope! Fingers crossed!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Now that the disappointment of no White Christmas has passed as well as a couple of nuisance "nothing to write home about" snowfalls(3" total from both systems) we fall into the arctic boredom which is plenty of minus signs in front of the temperature, the use of the term wind chill and the occasional social media posts of throwing hot water into the deep cold but as far as snow goes thats off the table for a good 10 days or so, so the frustation I sense in a few of the comments above about the "have and the have nots" and "everything goes up north" will only continue to grow when they see areas just south of us in Iowa/Illonis/Wisconsin get pummeled with a winter storm this weekend. Also dont be surprised after this arctic blast we actually go above freezing a few days next week and lose the precious little snow cover we do have. Take away that storm mid-month(and really it was only a storm if you lived under that 20 mile wide band of snow) and this winter isnt off to a great start for snowlovers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Took the words right out of my mouth. Lucky Iowa/ Southern WI for this weekend's storm.

      Delete
    2. @ Dry Tongue...Sadly I agree with you. Another very disappointing Twin Cities winter is taking shape. That's been the norm since the last real winter (2018-2019).

      Delete
  20. Something to keep an eye on for New Years Day….the 12z NAM just spit out a very narrow band on top of the metro of 3-5”…it’s far and away from the big storm going to effect places south of us but this is a new wrinkle…let’s see if this is a trend on future updates or just a hiccup on this run…..with how cold it will be the snow ratio will be easily 20-25-1….so if we get any moisture it will fluff up quickly. Let’s go NAM

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 06z NAM from this morning still showing a narrow band of snow for the metro but has sped up the timing to tomorrow(Friday) afternoon, they show 1-3" band of snow now and the NWS has introduced a 30% chance of snow now in their forecast grid. So something definitely to keep an eye on....perhaps an overachiever snow event, maybe...stay tuned!

      Delete
  21. I love the surprise snows. I know they aren't much, but an inch here and an inch there makes a huge difference in what it looks like outside. Love it right now. And Novak says that we may be surprised by a little snow on Friday. This is what bigdaddy is alluding to and it might happen. A few surprise inches would be great!! Bring it!

    And then bring a much bigger storm in here for the middle of next week. Bring them both!!

    ReplyDelete
  22. I agree, PWL! All snow is fun, but there is something special about surprise snows. Here in the Maple Grove/Plymouth area we have had a steady light festive holiday snow falling since late this morning. It has only added up to an inch or so at this point, but it is beautiful...and very little wind! I wish tomorrow's system was coming farther north, but the arctic high coming in today has other plans.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Happy New Year, fellow weather enthusiasts!!!

    Now, onto the first full week of January and some thoughts specific to snow this week.

    While I was having to look pretty far out to see any reasonable chances of snow, the latest run of the GFS (and some other models) give us a reasonable chance to see several inches of snow late Tuesday into Wednesday. We have "overachieved" with some recent "smaller snows" with the current cold air in place as this system for this week could do the same. The GFS gives us (in the metro) anywhere between 4-8 inches. I have also just noticed that the NWS forecast has moved from 20-30% chance of snow to snow likely with mention of accumulation in their discussion.

    I like these surprise events - as I have stated.

    As I also have stated - BRING IT!!! Winter is here for good!!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hey guys! Are there any recent thoughts on tonight’s snow? NWS has the Metro in a WWA, and Novak has us in a pretty big swath of 2-4”.

    Agree? Trending away from the Metro? Is the Metro going to “Camp Ripley” this storm and get 18”?!

    ReplyDelete
  25. "Camp Ripley" the storm - love it! I drove through there over new years...LOT'S of snow!

    I did as new blog host to start a new thread. But yes, hoping those with model access can start commenting on what they're seeing about tonight and potential on Saturday?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Did it really snow "4-6 inches" out there per some maps/predictions? I don't see that much out here in St Louis Park, but maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me. My favorite Richfield CoCoRaHS network early bird posted just 1.1 at their location. For those of you in the metro, what do you see out there today? I was expecting to see a bunch more snow. Maybe it all blew away! :+) Stay warm/drive slow/be safe.

    ReplyDelete