Monday, January 10, 2022

Plowable snow Friday?

 From Paul Huttner at MPR’s Updraft Blog:

The American, Canadian and European models all suggest a potentially plowable snow event across much of Minnesota on Friday. It’s still too early to be precise about storm track and snowfall totals.”

Let’s see how this pans out!

74 comments:

  1. All models/projections for Friday has taken the heavier/impactful snows further west/southwest, bad news for snowlovers. At best 1-2" for the greater MSP core. Winter limps on with nuisance snowfall after nuisance snowfall.

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    1. Aw..... nooooooooooo. Is there a chance it could shift again? I was I must say surprised that Mr Novak would put up his chart a whole 5 days in advance..... and had the metro in 'moderate' area. He has a pretty spot-on batting average. Bummer/thanks for the update. I'll still keep hoping..........

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  2. Just like that things have moved west 100-200 miles

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    1. Could it shift again? Please?

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    2. It could but when all the models caught on to this large shift west you'd think they are onto something.

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  3. Another shout out to Dave, the blog keeper who kept Minnesota Forecaster alive...........

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  4. This feels familiar guys. Winter storm presents itself in the models/point forecasts. A few days out, Winter storm shifts (insert any direction here). 24 hours before, Winter storm slides back in the direction of the original forecast. Despite what anyone predicted….Winter storm gives the core metro 3”.

    Let’s see if the trend continues with this one!

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  5. NWS is out with a "two to four inches" snowfall in my zip code area of the metro on Friday, yet with only a 60% chance of precip. And it's only Tuesday. Mr Novak has no 'snow inches' as of yet. So yes, it will be very interesting to see what I'm typing on Friday.

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  6. It worked!! I haven’t been able to post for quite some time and I am excited it worked that time. I have been having issues with this blog since change in ownership but it is my fault I am sure!!

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  7. Here are my thoughts on this clipper coming in.

    1. Interestingly, the model show is very north to south swath of precipitation/snow. This is very interesting as it usually has a northwest to southeast orientation. I’ve noticed in some of the recent murder runs, that has become a little less north to south. This has resulted in a little larger precipitation shield. This makes more sense to me.

    2. The models are very interesting to me. Just over 24-48 hours ago they were missing us to the north and east. Then, within that short timeframe, they moved from there to several hundred miles away AND the storm is only 2.5 days away. Something seems amiss there.

    3. Combining numbers 1 and 2 above make me think that the main swath will include the msp area in the end as the models shift to the middle of early this week to today and then tomorrow to Thursday. We will see.

    4. This is not a weak clipper. There is Pacific moisture to work with. Cold air is in place and the recipe is right for a string clipper with somewhere close to home (or right at home in good ol Plymouth) of getting a good 5-10 inches. I think somewhere will see a foot. That is a good size clippper if you ask me. If it can become a little less positively tilted, that would be good as well.

    But I need Novak!! He has not commented on here lately. Please Novak. I trust you more than any other weather person. Bring it!!

    And bring this storm closer to MSP. Bring it!!

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    2. @PWL sorry to say the heavy snow from the system you mentioning will be sailing south and west of the metro even the NWS has hoisted watches for that area. This storm has taken a huge leap westward and dumping alot of snow in western MN down into Iowa while snowlovers in the MSP area feel left out again.

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    3. Agreeing with James and other at this point; now NWS has 1 to 3 inches for the metro, so it's dwindling. :+( And Novak has posted a new map on FB, still without snow totals, that has us in 'moderate/keep an eye on it concern' but with the bullseye like James says above: south/west of the Twin Cities. Glad you are back on here PWL. Keep dancing. Not only is snow great, but we need all the precip we can get.

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  8. Earlier in a week, I did the “shift Southwest” dance. I think I over danced. Sorry about that! Now I’m trying to do the “correct the over dancing of a shift southwest dance“.

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    1. Ha ha ha. Okay, then. Make sure you're facing in the right direction for the snow dancing. I'm not too far from Plymouth over here in SLP; 'bring it!!!!!!!'

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  9. 12Z Models still keeping the majority of snowfall to western / sw minnesota

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  10. PWL, your dancing, more often than not, is very effective! Keep it up!

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  11. NWS has now gone 'back to' 3-5" in my city; Mr Novak has put out his snow total charts and there is a 2-6" range across the Twin Cities with 4 to 6 south/west/2 to 4 eastern half of metro. SO keep dancing, PWL.

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    1. Agreed. While NOAA is still predicting 3-5 inches in my city, there are no advisories out, so I'd tend to agree with you/the model expertise you have. Even Mr Novak wrote with this chart totals last night on FB: "WED 8:30 pm: Ok, here we go. Every mile that you travel southwest of the Twin Cities, powder totals go up on Friday. BUST potential high near the tight snow gradients." That 'bust potential' catches my eye with a gradient slicing right through the metro. Thanks for the update, Panhandle Hooker.

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    2. I have to tell you Dave that was uncalled for removing my comment, it was neither inappropriate or trolling. I stated plenty facts and even had one of your readers agree with my comment @WeatherGeek.
      Actually you did make me feel bad as I have been a long time reader but that was first comment, I even tried to come up with a creative weather handle in Panhandle Hooker as they are my favorite type of storm living here in Minnesota. Please next time do better or that was my first comment and last. Thank you

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    3. Aw, Panhandle Hooker. Please don't quit the site. Hope you get some decent snow at your house.

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  13. In this morning's Strib (1/13) Paul Douglas is predicting only 1-3" for the metro, sadly. He even quips "insert yawn here." He also writes that "clippers may bring a few bursts of snow" during the rest of this month, but that "fresh, arctic air will suppress the main storm track too far south for headline-grabbing amounts" around here. Well, rats.

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  14. Bummer that this one seems to be missing the metro. But I am happy we have kept snow cover since Christmas and I will take a few inches now and again to be able to keep sledding with my kid!

    By the way I have removed several anonymous comments where the tone was not what I am looking to see here. You can talk about a storm busting without being a troll about it. If you comment with an actual username tied to an account and develop a bit of a personality here I can give more leeway, but anonymous comments will be given a short leash. If this doesn’t work I can shut off anonymous comments altogether or send them all to me for approval. Don’t come here to make people feel bad.

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    1. Thumbs up emoji! Thanks for taking the time to do that.

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  15. I’m keeping up hope this storm nudges east. This isn’t a normal clipper. It’s got some punch! I saw the NWS get 1 county closer to the metro overnight, so hoping in the next 24 hours before it hits we get some color coding for Hennepin!

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    1. Sorry…I meant I saw the WSW boundary get one county closer to the metro (not the NWS)

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  16. I love keeping up with this site even though I live in the South now.

    On that note, Charlotte is bracing for a potential winter storm this weekend. I have no concept of what that means here. I guess I'll learn something new. :-)

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    1. Well, check in and let us know, Joel! I'd love to learn about what you experience in a winter storm in Charlotte.

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    2. Will do

      I think the same system hitting SW MN will be the one to regroup and hit the SE.

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    3. The first forecast is out: Winter Storm Watch for Saturday night and Sunday. 4-6 inches of snow, sleet, and ice in Charlotte. Power outages likely.

      Very curious to see how this goes.

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    4. Wow! The sleet/ice are the difficult parts, along with power outages. It's interesting to think of our incoming storm tomorrow heading east/morphing as it hits different temps along the way. Good luck out there and thanks for still keeping track of us here in MN.

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    5. Updated forecast is for less snow, more freezing rain.

      Ugh

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    6. Don't ya wish you were here? "+) If I could attach a photo, I would. It's very pretty out there and the snow is still coming down. Maybe you should start a similar weather blog out east! Good luck as the storm barrels your way.

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    7. I'm sure it's lovely. Nothing like fresh powder.

      I love snow, but for me now the most interesting thing to watch will be tropical systems during hurricane season.

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  17. We finally got a Winter Weather Advisory posted for the metro (at least the part where I live) from midnight tonight until midnight tomorrow night. Keep dancing, PWL.

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  18. It’s all about nowcasting now! All the models have made their predictions and all the meteorologists have put out their colorful tight gradient maps. It would seem like the metro just on the edge of course again of missing out on a good snowstorm. Let’s hope this storm is an overachiever for us. If your looking for a late silver lining the hot off the press 00Z NAM spit out a stronger snowfall for those living in Hennipen county of 4-6”….time will tell what happens. Drive safe you all!

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  19. Holy Smokes. I can't remember seeing such a gradient right over the metro. Mr Novak 'massaged' as he calls it, his snow total predictions and the metro has three different areas of amounts: coating to 2", 2-4" and 4-6"..... so fascinating. Whatever falls at your house today, enjoy, enjoy, enjoy. I can't wait to see the CoCoRaHS network totals tomorrow morning.

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  20. STEP 1 OF AN OVERACHIEVER SNOW STORM: Start snowing 4 hours earlier than expected.

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  21. ^^^Ha ha ha, yes! Also, @Dave/site admin, thank you for removing the anonymous troll comments. I think your focus of the blog is spot on. We're all here to enjoy winter weather and the experience and knowledge.

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  22. Love the latest RAP model which some might consider the best short term model. It has msp in the 6+ category for consecutive hourly runs.

    Bring it!!!

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  23. Mr Novak is live on FB (noon) with updates, but the new FB setup keeps going on/off on my little computer, so it was a tad frustrating/I gave up. Drats! It is certainly snowing at a good clip right now out here in St Louis Park. Like PWL always says, 'Bring it!'

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  24. KARE 11 reports 2.6/2.8 inches so far at Chan/MSP Airport as this stuff winds down around here. Wish it were more, but all snow is very welcome.

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  25. 3.7 MSP airport/4.6 Chanhassen 'in the end'..... not bad. Enjoy today, folks, and hoping for some more spurts of snow, though there is not much showing up in NOAA's weekly forecast.

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  26. Wow did the storm come out as predicted. Amazing!! The models locked in on a scenario about 48 hours or more in advance abs just stayed there! Impressive. And way to go Novak! Nailed it!

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  27. Update from Charlotte on Winter Storm Izzy (I still hate this stupid naming of winter storms) for those who care:

    Some snow at the start and end of the storm, but mostly sleet in Charlotte proper. First sleet/snowfall of greater than an inch in over three years. About 2.5" fell.

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    1. Thanks for the update. Glad you weathered the storm.

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  28. Just sayin - Novak indicated 1-2 inches of snow on Friday night on his weekly map from last weekend for this week. Abs now the NWS is saying that. Go Novak. THE MAN!

    The other exciting thing is that it looks like the clippers for Sunday night could be a little more extensive. Bring it!

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    1. Yes! I noticed the 'slap in the face' cold announcement from Mr Novak and now see yes, yes, 1-2 inches of snow Friday night from both sources you note in your post. That will be nice.

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    2. I'm warming up my plowable golden horseshoe!!!

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  29. Pretty interesting setup the next 3 nights(Friday night,Saturday night,Sunday night)...finally the clipper train that I have alluded to may finally coming to fruition. Now remember clippers can be very fickle with track and intestity but with such cold temperatures the snow can fluff up very quickly....I would not be surprised at all if some locations within our CWA receive 6" or greater between the 3 systems. Lets see how this plays out but if your a snowlover you must be thrilled to see and track snow 3 straight days!

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    1. Thanks for the info; hoping for a new thread for this series of clippers........

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  30. NWS is now pushing out 1-3 inches Friday night, 1-3 inches Saturday night, and 70% chance of more snow Sunday night. DANCE, PWL! I know on the low side that means a mere 2+ inches, but if it goes on the high side, yay!!! 6+ over two days plus Sunday night? N-i-c-e......... Hope it comes to fruition.

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    1. Hey you stole my word, get your own words. Jk ;)
      Let it snow X3!!!

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  31. Paul Huttner over at MPR just put out 5-10” for central/southern Minnesota for the next 3-4 days with our inbound trio of clippers. Like I said earlier 6+” results would not surprise me. Let the clipper train commence.

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    1. I am majorly confused; NWS has lowered their totals to 1" or less in my neighborhood for each event, so 'what happened?' or will their forecast change again? Phooey! I hope bigdaddy is right and that NWS is off their latest predictions.

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  32. I was thinking the same thing WeatherGeek. It appears the NWS is really backing off on all 3 clippers. At this rate the metro will be lucky to see a grand total of 3 inches from all 3 clippers combined! I hope Huttner is right!

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    1. Not exactly sure what your referencing in regards to NWS lowering their totals. If you follow them on Twitter they put out a graphic 3hrs ago stating “up to 2” Friday night, up to 2” Saturday night, up to 5” Sunday night”. Now like I said before clippers are fickle and snow accumulation can vary over a small distance now will everyone see 9”(if you add all those numbers up)no….but places in our county warned area could exceed 6”…just a matter of where…could be the metro core or just to the north or south or west or east…ok you get the picture. Time will tell what happens but will be fun to track!

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    2. Thanks for the info, bigdaddy. I just look at their site for my zip code area a bazillion times a day ..... so noaa.gov and 'find your local weather.' Let me check and see what it's pumping out for St Louis Park right now: 1/2 inch later today; maybe an inch tonight; Saturday 'around an inch' blown around by high winds; and Sunday has the promise of "1-3" inches, but that's what was there for tonight/tomorrow and that kind of went way down in estimates. Anyway, that is the noaa site I use. Thanks for the updates. Maybe I'm on the wrong side of the metro for some significant white stuff. If I woke up and saw 9" I would be 'woooooooo hooooooooo' .... happy dance.

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  33. This morning the NWS was calling for 1-3 inches Friday night and again Saturday night, plus a stronger system Sunday night/Monday. This afternoon's NWS forecast discussion was calling for .5 - 1 inch Friday night and again Saturday night, plus a stronger system Sunday night/Monday.

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  34. 00z Global models just updated and 3 of 4(NAM/GFS/CANADIAN) all show 5-7" for a metro total combining all 3 clippers! The EURO model is updating now, lets see what it will say.

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    1. EURO 00z update was only 2" for all 3 clippers...todays model runs should, I emphasis should give us a clearer/better picture plus we'll have the shorter range models onboard as well.

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  35. It appears the NWS is now backpedaling on Saturday night's snow. This morning the forecast said a 90% chance of snow Saturday night in the TC. This afternoon the forecast is down to a 40% chance of snow from Saturday's clipper.

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  36. 12z models are out and it’s not looking good. Most have decreased totals to 2-4” over the span of the 3 clippers in the metro area, some even miss us entirely. Like I said clippers are fickle little systems, let’s hope one of them decides to overachieve.

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  37. Just watched the evening forecasts on tv. I honestly think a grand total in the metro from all 3 clippers combined will be around 2 inches? I hope that changes, but right now it looks like a very disappointing event(s)...as usual.

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  38. It looks like tonight's clipper is falling apart? We heard all week how the Sunday/Monday clipper was going to be the strongest and last the longest of all 3 clippers. Now it appears all but far southwest MN (?) will struggle to get an inch? Novak got yesterday's clipper right. I am looking forward to what he has to say about tonight's.

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