Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
From the National Weather Service - let’s see what happens the next few days!
Brief, but heavy, snow showers are possible Friday along with gusty winds. Confidence is increasing in accumulating snow early next week.
Can't wait to see the forecasts and discussions. Thanks for starting the new thread.
GFS puts down a solid 6” for much of central MN (at 10:1 ratio), but given the colder temps and the wind that will be wrapped in, there’s potential for a higher ratio and drifting. If this forecast pans out as is, roads west of the metro are going to be slow—to-no going Monday night into Tuesday. I think I heard someone say this once…..Bring it!
I often look at 'time and date' and wanted to know where they get their models from because they put out ridiculously high totals at times (like right now they've got 6 inches Monday and almost 11 inches on Tuesday next week).... so I went hunting for how they come up with totals like that so far in advance and found this: "CustomWeather provides the weather data on timeanddate.com. They use weather stations at airports, stations run by the World Meteorological Association (WMO), and MADIS weather stations which are typically a community effort." They are way off on totals much of the time, but it sure is 'fun' to sit here today on a frigid sunny morning dreaming of that much snow in the metro next week. Thanks for the update, JAW!
Mr Novak did one video today for the Monday/Tuesday storm and mentioned another tomorrow around 9 a.m. on FB. The Twin Cities appears to be in a 'bullseye' if it all holds together, and the way he lays it out, everything is in place for a whopper of a storm. No snow totals yet.... but dance PWL and be happy other snow lovers because this could be awesome. This site will be bustling.
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Hey anonymous person, friendly reminder that if I do not know your username and persona I have no way to tell if comments are light hearted ribbing or actually meanspirited. Please add positive contributions and consider posting as a signed-in user (even my own account is anonymous, but it identifies my posts as coming from the same user).I hope you can hang around and enjoy the site.
Thank you, Dave. I'm glad I don't know what the anonymous comment was. I appreciate you keeping the site going and keeping it positive.
History has shown around here (TC Metro) that it's usually not a good thing to be in the bullseye several days before the event. Hopefully this time will be an exception?! We are overdue for a real snowfall in the metro (not the fraction of an inch amounts we have been getting).
Agreed. I watched Mr Novak's video yesterday and he explained why the bullseye looks so good....the axis, the two jet streams we are between, the gulf moisture surging up.... so he sounded pretty solidly locked in like in the good old days when I first discovered him/this site. Hoping it's the real deal and will try to catch his video that he said he'd do this morning on FB later today when I get a chance........ for now: watch out with the wild winds coming later this afternoon.........
Who has access to computer models and can start sharing what they're seeing? Timing, amounts, QPF, Euro, GFS, Canadian, NAM, all that good stuff? Bring it!
Well, Novak is just now posting weekend forecasts on FB/ NWS has the Winter Weather Advisory out for the metro today with 50 mph wind gusts/up to an inch of snow...... I'm hoping Mr Novak will do another FB video for next week's storm as I'm also waiting on the people who have the access to all those models. Bring it, indeed. It's our turn!!!
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Oops: I attributed to the wrong sourcing:Big Snow Fan and others: one person put this out on the Twin Cities NWS FB page within the past hour: "Gfs shows 17.5 inches the Canadian over 20 the European hasn't updated yet This is long Duration snowstorm Will start on Monday and end on Tuesday" (posted around 11:40 a.m. today/Friday)
Thank you, @WeatherGeek! Hoping it pans out. I wonder where Plymouth Weather Lover is? Maybe he's depressed with the lack of decent snow storms over the past month or so?
Gosh, you're right about PWL. Hoping PWL checks in soon. He was active on the thread prior to this one......
Here I am!!! Thanks for caring, everyone! I have been monitoring the models (pivotal weather is my favorite model site) and assessing things and the dancing is going to get serious this weekend! Great ingredients in place: stalled out front, Pacific moisture, Gulf of Mexico moisture, cold air in place!!! Bring all of that! Bring it!!
What kinds of totals are the models throwing out for the metro? Any ranges that overlap, yet? Glad you're back (not that you were really gone that long! :+) ) The suspense of this storm is killing me, ha ha.
Finally a Colorado Low special!!! All of our mini events the past month or so have been clipper type systems that dont deliver much snow or impacts. Monday and Tuesday will be totally different with a low forming in Colorado and tracking slowly eastard which will give us a multi-day snowfall with ample moisture coming up from the Gulf as well as the Pacific...throw in cold arctic air and the recipe is there for a high impact high ratio snowfall....and the 00z models are throwing out big numbers already....00z GFS....7+00Z Euro...7+00z Canadian..10"00z UKMET..5"06Z NAM....6"+(this model only goes out 84 hours so doest have the full event yet)Now all those numbers are 10:1 ratio snowfall which this storm will be much greater then that with the cold air in place, more like 15-20:1...which means the snow will fluff up higher with greater accumulations...if you take the kuchera ratio for those previous models which accounts for the higher snow ratio accumulations are anywhere from 12-18". So given all that I think it will be a significant snow event around here both Monday and Tuesday, I wouldnt be surprised if Winter Storm Watches get hoisted at some point today!And if you like to look further out in time which the GFS goes out 16 days..more like fantasyland...they are showing in total 3'-4' of snow(yup feet)...lets take one storm at a time shall we? Should be an entertaining couple of weeks...be safe and enjoy snowlovers.
Thanks for the updates/models. NWS is finally putting some totals out there this morning on my local forecast with 5-11 inches, and that's not including Tuesday night when it's still snowing....... yay!
wow the long range gfs does certainly show March coming in like a lion. I guess its up to temperatures to see whether we get further accumulation or rain. Fingers crossed for the former.
The one thing I've noticed the last 24 hours is the consistency in the GFS in terms of north/south fluctuation. It seems the real variance in the GFS is how wide or narrow the heaviest snow band will be. Some runs have solid totals up the MN/WI border from Winona to nearly Duluth, while others have the heaviest band as narrow as Forest Lake to Hinkley (like this morning's run unfortunately).But overall even the worst case model so far is showing 5 inches for the metro at 10:1 snowfall ratio, so I have high hopes of this being productive.
Thanks for the update.
Thank you Dave and Big Daddy! I just don’t see how this system could be a 10:1 ratio looking at the cold arctic air at all levels. It’s going to be 15 degrees when it starts and get colder from there. Regardless, it’s been a lot of fun watching the consistency of the model runs with this one. Stay safe out there!
Love the model consistency. The nice thing is this storm shouldn’t have a sharp cutoff. Bring it!!!!
12Z GFS(Kuchera) has 12-16” metro wide!
wooo hooo hope it holds!
Kuchera (Airport)Kuchera (AT 90 HOURS)The Latest Model Runs (Airport) --- NOT A FORECAST -GFS - (12Z) -> 11.0GDPS- (12Z) -> 12.3EMCWF-(12GZ) -> 11.2NAM- (12Z) -> 6.9 (at 84 hours)RDPS- (12Z) -> 10.2 (AT 84 hours)NWS BLEND- (12z) -> 7.6 (standard 10:1 ratio)
Thanks for the updates. It is so weird to me that Mr Novak hasn't put out snow totals, yet. It makes me wonder/go 'hmmmmmm' because he is usually way ahead of NWS... we finally have our winter storm watch in the metro for this storm. Thanks again for the updates, DysonGuy.
No Winter Storm Watch for the southern metro? Is the storm shifting north? The forecast for Rosemount for Monday is 1-3 inches. That is hardly a snowstorm.
and if Forest Lake gets 9” that would be a snow storm. Not a ton of snowstowms are going to nicely paint the exact area between the north and south splits of I-35.
Seven hours ago Novak said on Twitter many places will get 6-10+ inches of snow Monday/Tuesday.
This storm is going to be to watch!! Things look north for a few runs but I think the heavy swatch will not have a sharp cutoff so even outside the bullseye will get lots of snow. I hope rates can get up there over the metro. Plenty of moisture to work with!! Dancing!!! Bring it!!!!
Looks like the latest NAM run has the snow north of St. Cloud - Pine City line. However, NWS updated their winter weather website at 9 pm and has 6-8” for metro with 8” plus starting in northern suburbs.
The 00Z NAM(Kuchera) has 12-15” for the core metro and 2’+ for areas around St. Cloud to Hinckley. My gut tells me the NWS is being conservative and not taking into account the higher snow ratios for this storm, it’s not your traditional 10:1 ratio coming in. Let’s see what the other 00z models spit out!
00Z GFS(Kuchera) pretty much lock step with the 00Z NAM….12-15” across the core metro and the heavier band (though slightly less) of 18-20” running thru St Cloud.
I've been watching the models with great interest as the dynamics of this storm look amazing. However what could go wrong? The following have caught my attention.1. Will the moisture from the Pacific make it over the northern Rockies? As of now it appears as if it will, however the transport my not be as heavy as the models were showing as of yesterday.2. As the Northern energy approaches from the west on Monday, the surface to 850 low will start to form near CO. As it does the 850 trough will take on an inverted look, extending from Co to the northeast into southern MN just south of the metro. The winds to the SW of the inverted trough will originate in the desert southwest advecting very dry air into OK,KS,NE and western IA. Some of this dryer air will make into southern MN drying out the lower levels just enough to cut down snow totals from the heart of the metro to the south.3. Where will the surface low eject out to on Tuesday into Thursday morning? The models have been very consistent in tracking it towards Chicago. As it ejects out, the gulf will open so it will have enough moisture that it will be a strong system. But the track looks to be to far south to effect most of the metro with the higher impacts being in se MN. This is currently depicted nicely by the UKMET model which I am leaning to at this time.The Euro is on board as well. Snowfall forecast tomorrow.
It looks like this storm shifted, and MSP is no longer in any type of 'bullseye' or am I wrong? The snow totals maps and NWS discussion this morning make Monday's event more 'north' of the metro and Tuesday's event more 'south'...... Tell me I'm wrong, please. I'll still be happy with what we get, but........ And thanks to all of you with your summaries of what you see on the models/your knowledge of weather/etc.
It certainly has changed and the metro is not in the big dump, but weather isn’t an exact science therefore it can shift back. The greatest snowfall was with that band extending from the Dakotas late Sunday into Monday, where that sets up will be the jackpot for this storm. We will still get snow possibly still warning level(6+) but it will be drawn out over two days so it will be less impressive and impactful. Let’s see if it shifts south today 🙏
All I'm going to do is repost what I posted a few days ago: "History has shown around here (TC Metro) that it's usually not a good thing to be in the bullseye several days before the event."
@Tim, I hate to agree, but yes, history has repeatedly demonstrated the "Bullseye Curse" in the metro. Here we go again? (I hope not!) Uuuggghhh
I just read the morning forecast. It sure isn't looking good for southern MN. We can't be surprised if tomorrow's system goes north, for that has been the trend all winter. I was just up in the Duluth and Arrowhead region. They have soooooooo much more snow on the ground than the Metro and points south. I believe southwestern MN for the most part this winter has had bare ground? The pattern hasn't changed. If you want snow this season, your best bet continues to be to head north of St. Cloud.
Thanks for the update. I did see someone on the NWS FB page noting that up in northern MN where they live it is as you say, buried in snow. Bummer for us.
Within the past hour I see Mr Novak has posted his snow predictions on FB. What a 'weird shaped' storm this one is with regards to his guesstimates. He still has 7-12 across the metro when it's all done, with Duluth, St Cloud (?) and northern WI in the heavy 12-16" ranges. Let.It.SNOW! Can't wait to see this multi-day event unfold.
Northern MN (approximately Duluth and northward) has had a real winter this year. Lots of cold and lots of snow! A winter fan's paradise! When it comes to snow this season it's been a case of the haves (up north) and have nots (Metro and south). I like Novak, but I think he's being generous placing the Metro in the 7-12 inch range. Like others on this site, I hope I'm wrong about that.
First, a bullseye moving one direction or the other has NOTHING to do with the metro.Second, the metro has had average snowfall this year. Why do we keep saying we keep missing things? We have missed some bigger storms but we have had average snowfall (or close). Third, this storm is far from done. Last I checked, it hasn’t started snowing yet!! And the biggest part of the storm may not be until Tuesday for the metro. I love the predictions. Keep them coming. But some things stated recently are just not true. Hang in there. Trust in Novak. Anything over 6 inches as a good size storm!!Bring it!!!!
First, I'm not quite sure what your point is. I never said nor implied the Metro dictates where the bullseye will be, nor have I read where anyone else has said or implied that either. All last week the Metro was in the bullseye. Somebody on this site even warned that that is typically not a good thing so many days before the storm. I agree. Case in point, as of today the Metro is no longer in the bullseye. Can that change? Yes. Will that change? Probably not. Second, the December storm really skewed the averages for snow for the Metro this season. We have had two snowfalls of 3.7 inches or more (There have even been stories on the news about that). One was the December storm, where incidentally places like Maple Grove picked up 6 inches while Woodbury, parts of St. Paul, etc. picked up 20+ inches! MSP Airport recorded 12 inches, I believe. Otherwise, it's been a bunch of 1.4 or fewer inches per system for the Metro. Meanwhile system after system of 4-6+ inches has hit northern MN. Also, on more than one occasion the Arctic high has suppressed snowstorms to our south so we got nothing! Yes, that happens every winter here. Third, I agree that this storm has not hit yet, and that things can change. I argue that the odds are not in our favor. The accuracy of the weather models increases the closer we get to the event. I also agree that a 6-inch snowfall is a good storm. With all due respect, I have not read that anyone has written anything false on this site about this upcoming event or anything else.
Referring to comments from earlier today. The comments taking about a history in the metro. Not your comments RRJ. Speaking of history, my comments never get personal. Just making some points. All good. Bring it!!!!
No worries! We're all on the same snow team, PWL! Let it snow! Let it snow!
thank you RRJ and PWL for the great back and forth even though you have separate expectations.
Kuchera (AT 90 HOURS)The Latest Model Runs 2/20 (Airport) --- NOT A FORECAST -GFS - (12Z) -> 12.4GDPS- (12Z) -> 10.4EMCWF-(12Z) -> 9.2NAM- (12Z) -> 6.8 (at 84 hours)RDPS- (12Z) -> 8.3 (AT 84 hours)UKMET- (12Z) -> 3.9 (standard 1.1 ratio)NWS BLEND- (12z) -> 6.5 (standard 10:1 ratio)
I am going to let myself be hopeful for a good snow storm, and if it doesnt pan out then I am going to move on with life. Until that happens I do not see the point in mourning a storm that has not even started yet. Hope we get the most we can out of this!
48 degrees and sunny down here in Rochester. Absolutely loved the walk with the dogs today except for the copious amounts of water the dogs had to run through to dirty themselves up! :-)
Well, my watch has now turned into a warning starting at 6 a.m. tomorrow morning. NWS is talking 7-14 inches/St Louis Park area. "Bring it." Even 7 is a nice chunk of snow.
What is fascinating now, though, is the forecast saying 'less than an inch' of snow tomorrow/tomorrow night and the bulk coming on Tuesday? So fascinating.
Forecast total for metro;Monday..Northern Metro including Elk River, Anoka, Blaine, Northern Hennipen county. 1-4". 2 for Dayton, Chanmplin Fridley, 4" from Princton to Isanti. Core metro 2 or less, south metro including Bloomington around 1".Tuesday North Metro 1-2, core metro 2-4, south metro 4-6 including Apple Valley, Elko-New Market. From Austin/Albert Lea to Red Wing to as far southeast as Rochester and Winona..6 to 8
That’s a pretty large range from the NWS of 7-14”, I’m sure it’s to cover all the bases…probably 7” near and around the airport to 14” for places like Northern Anoka county/North Branch/Elk River. I guess we’ll just see what transpires…most of the time there’s some surprises with snow systems like the heavy snow band in south metro during that December storm, we’ll see what curveballs Mother Nature throws at us.
Looks like the main event today is pretty clearly missing the core metro, thats a bummer! Guess I am ice skating with my kid for our day off rather than sledding, but still holding out hope the 4-6” materialize tomorrow per the nws! Looks like the biggest variable for tomorrow is the moisture saturation up from the gulf… fingers crossed for an overachiever but I would happily accept 4” to play in tomorrow.
Yup I agree, bummer! I would like at least one big/major snowstorm a winter, pushing or exceeding a foot of snow(yes I know December tried but that 20 mile wide band didn’t make it past the airport). I’m with you Dave let’s hope we overachieve tomorrow!
Sorry have no idea why it double sends!
Does anyone know where I can retrieve season to date snowfall totals for different locations in MN?
It's hard to find info for locales other than NWS; I am putting one link here. Another one is the 'CoCoRaHS' with total snowpack for reporting stations, but if the snow melts, then one would have to do all the daily totals day by day by day I think. So NWS has daily observation and totals to date but only for five locales: Local/Historical Climatology and then on that page 'observed weather' with only MSP, St Cloud, Eau Claire and Chanhassen as options to click on. There are other headers I have not tried clicking on.... maybe one of them has what you are looking for. So here is one link for MSP climate data: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/snowfall.html And then here is the link I get when I click on local NWS weather forecasts and go into the climate date for us for the season: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=mpx Hope you can find some info you like.... if not, just disregard this post.
Thank you for the information, WeatherGeek!
Can someone post updated GFS/UKMET/EURO/NAM/Canadian snowfall outputs for MSP?
GFS is most aggressive with 10.8”…..Canadian/NAM…7-8”…those are Kuchera ratio….EURO/UKMET about 3-4” at 10:1 ratio…so if you double it….most everyone is still calling for 6-10” for MSP. Most of the local Mets and Novak are roughly saying the same thing…we’ll see what happens!
Thanks for the update, bigdaddy. Here in SLP, it's saying 4-8, and Novak mentioned in a revised map of snow totals that he is "...worried that DRY air will cause some issues over southern MN/WI during tomorrow's WINTER STORM event." Can't wait to see what we get.
Are you serious Dave, can we not ask honest questions on this blog? I asked when can we start using the bust word for this storm? You could answer the question or others but why delete it? Can we not engage in conversation on this blog?
Hi Dave. I think Sam poses a fair question. I have been wondering the same thing. While I do not know exactly what Sam said in his post, I do know Novak in his Facebook video last night spoke about the high bust potential evolving with this system. Novak was quite concerned about the dry tongue that was pushing north. As I recall, he used the word "Bust" at least once, if not twice, during his video presentation. It's a fair issue to discuss, especially given people's varying definitions and perceptions of what constitutes a "Bust". There has been nothing but hype since early last week that this was going to be a big snowstorm for the metro. The storm is not over, but at this point I think it is fair to debate whether this storm will underperform or not. To be clear I am referring to the Twin Cities, as central/northern MN once again received more than their fair share of snow yesterday. I strongly advocate deleting personal attacks on this site, which has been an issue in the past. Such comments are not constructive. However, I do not advocate deleting or censoring general, reasonable and relevant discourse. To do so will create a chilling effect on posters. Thank you for your consideration.
Tim your reply is exactly the type of thing that is a good way to debate the storm. It shows you are thoughtfully engaging and have put in effort to your contribution. Sam’s post was a throwaway one-liner and better suited to a platform like twitter.
I love this site!! Just love it! This site would not be running without Dave. Thank you, Dave!!!I welcome discourse but not people trying to purposely irritate others or tear others down. I’m not sure what the original post says but those are my standards. And to the snow blossoming today….. bring it!!!
Sam posted something like “When can we calm this so-called storm a BUST?”I find that to be low effort and not add anything to the conversation. What did he have to go off of? Was there data indicating additional dry air or something? Mention Novak saying high bust potential?There are many platforms out there to post low effort negative comments. I do not use them for a reason. I am trying to keep a certain tenor and expectation for this community.Sam let me try rewording this:“I just sawNovak say that this storm has high bust potential. What expectations do people now have for this storm given the latest data or forecasts?”It takes absolutely no effort to come in and post BUST and it adds zero value to this community.
Well said, Dave! I completely agree.
Looking at the CoCoRaHS network, one who measures precip got 16" in Duluth; 11" in Pillager; 8" in Sturgeon Lake.... so those are some who got hefty totals from Round One. And yes, I composed a response early this morning including 'bust' language since as Tim says, even Mr Novak used that terminology, and I saw mention of the 'dry tongue' last night that I learned about on here during previous years/storms. I thought, 'Oh, no......' and waking up to see nothing on the ground was sad. This two-punch storm received a lot of hype and I have SO much egg on my face today from fellow snow-lovers on FB. However, now it IS snowing and blowing, so life is good. Let's see how much we can squeeze out today. All snow is good snow. :+)
I must say it is so PRETTY OUTSIDE. Yeah, the wind is whipping everything off the balcony, but gosh, it is POURING snow. Wooooo hooooooo. Love love love it.
I agree the snow is pretty. It is snowing and blowing in Plymouth/Maple Grove. The wind will make it challenging to get an accurate measurement. I spoke with friends up north. They said yesterday was awesome getting more than 10 inches of fresh snow to go along with the 2.5-3 feet they already had on the ground! Wish I lived up there this winter!
I smiled when two people wrote on Novak's FB page that they have 6+ inches here in SLP and I looked out the window and said, 'Hmmmmm maybe if everything blew over from the Wolfe Park area where I am'.... I don't think it's that much, not 6+.... I can't wait to see. I agree that these winds will make it mighty tough to measure the snow accurately. They must have super deep snow gauges.
@WeatherGeek, I'm in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area. I just measured a couple wind sheltered areas and both showed 2 inches. I think that is pretty accurate, because just eyeballing the landscape I would guess we got between 2-3 inches at most. I just checked radar and saw the storm is moving away and that the snow is all but over for us. The sun even came out here for a while a short time ago. What a colossal disappointment and a huge forecasting miss for southern MN, including the metro.
Thanks for your measurements. Can't wait to see what MSP and Chanhassen report tomorrow, along with other metro 'snow measurers'....
I saw that the far southern TC and east over to Hudson got between 4-6 inches. I recall the forecast being that the northern TC would get the most in the Twin Cities metro area. The opposite happened. Although I remember reading randyinchamplin's forecast that the most snow would fall in the far southern TC. While I think the storm overall underperformed for the TC as a whole, I think it really underperformed for the core metro (international airport) and the western and northern TC. I noticed earlier today on radar that the heavier bands of snow were mostly favoring the southern and eastern burbs.
Thanks! I saw those figures too. I was outside again a few minutes ago and in some places it seems like we got more than 3 inches up here, but in other places 3 inches seems accurate. It's just so hard to tell because of the wind. The wind is still pretty gusty here.
as disappointed as I was that we did not get a whopper, my young daughter certainly enjoyed our 4-5”. I tried to explain to her the GFS originally projected a lot more but she did not seem interested and just continued jumping in snow piles. Kids, right? :)
It will be interesting to see the 7am posting from CoCoRaHS, many ofthe totals on the NWS web page are from early in the afternoon
Yes! I love CoCoRaHS.... Richfield reports around 4:30 each time.... that one got over 6". It will be fun to see the other reports this morning.
One of my favorite weather observation stations near crosstown in Richfield has clocked in with 6.3" this morning; MSP got 5.1; Chanhassen only 3.8. I hear shovels out there right now at 4:46 a.m. Our next chance of some white stuff comes tomorrow.....maybe an inch or so where I am...... "bring it" in any amount.
Yesterday was nice! Not a whopper, not what the GFS and others were advertising inside of 72 hours…but 5” of fresh snow is good. To steal @WeatherGeek line…all snow is good snow!Don’t sleep on tomorrow folks….must models are showing an uptick on snow today…all in the 2-4” range!
You're right, bigdaddy! NOAA has 1-2" now for tomorrow in my area plus 'less than an inch' at night.... so it could be 2+. Yay. Thanks for the heads up.
quick programming note I plan to keep this thread up for a bit and will watch for the next thread-worthy event. Do not hesitate to email firstname.lastname@example.org if you want me to start a new one
Well, MSP picked up 2.6 inches of snow yesterday; Chan: 1.3 and my favorite weather person who posts online in Richfield 1.1.... Even though it seems it hasn't snowed much this winter, all these little bursts add up to an 'above average' snowfall amount to date this season. I'm going to enjoy the hints of spring in the air this weekend and hope we get some more snow in March. :+)