I have not had the chance to read up much on this, but the NWS says we could see a decent storm with some type of wintry precipitation.
They provide this warning in the forecast discussion:
“Model consistency has improved markedly since yesterday, with the deterministic runs all exhibiting similar solutions. Being 5-6 days out, details are still very likely going to change leading up to it”
Will March deliver?
Haha, I was just going to post on the other thread that “something is brewing” for Fri/Sat. Right now MSP looks like on the messy(icy mix) to rain(warm) side but it could change over time to a more snowy one. Track will be key with this one as Arctic air is lacking, so a track south and east of us would be needed for more snow. Current track into and just west of us is not favorable!ReplyDelete
Completely agree, Bigdaddy. Not a lot of cold air in front of the system, but models and the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are calling for cooler temps on the back side of the system. So it will all depend upon the track of that Low. Let’s hope for a LaCrosse track!ReplyDelete
So don’t look at 18z GFS or anything, it’s not like it just dropped 2 feet of snow on MSP and has it snowing for 3 straight days or anything. Snowlovers can dream can’t we? Let’s see what happens but it looks like there will be plenty of moisture to work with….there’s plenty of changes to come as well but it’s nice eye candy at the moment!ReplyDelete
Well the 00z GFS came to its senses and only drops 20” on MSP, but still over 3 days worth. More eye candy…Halloween is only 8 months away!Delete
Well well well….looks like the GFS has some company! 00z EURO has a much colder/snowier solution spitting out a foot of the white stuff over MSP(tight gradient yet again). A lot to iron out over the next 5 days….will be an interesting read of the NWS discussion in the morning.ReplyDelete
Oh, March! I hope all this freezing drizzle in the next several days is snow, please. What an interesting week we have ahead, and yes, looks like the weekend could be exciting snow-potential-wise. And sleet-potential-wise. NWS Twin Cities and Mr Novak's FB pages are quiet so far. Glad this site is here for my heads-up! "Bring it"/Dance, PWL.ReplyDelete
I love eye candy! It’s nice to see all of the models in agreement that a significant weather event will be happening late Friday through Sunday. It will be fun to watch! I will be doing my “keep the rain snow line just south of the metro area and stall out right near La Crosse, and let the Gulf of Mexico be plentiful with its grant of moisture“ dance.ReplyDelete
@WeatherGeek NWS not so quiet! Their AM discussion:ReplyDelete
Attention then turns to the weekend system, which could bring
significant impacts. Model consistency remains pretty good with the
deterministic runs all exhibiting similar solutions. The main change
overnight was a small shift of the surface low to the southeast which
has resulted in less liquid precipitation and more snow/sleet.
A potent shortwave over the Desert Southwest will eject northeastward
Friday. This, in conjunction with a deepening trough over the
Northeast, will build ridging across the central U.S. and allow warm
air and deep moisture to advect northward from the Gulf of Mexico.
The ridge is less amplified today and the flow pattern has become a
little more zonal, less meridional. This tracks the surface low more
ENE, rather than than NE as was advertised yesterday. The suppressed
surface low allows colder air farther south and thus there is now
more snow in the forecast, except for the southeast CWA where a
wintry mix remains. QPF has also increased due to a longer residence
time of the heavier band of precip north of the low. It should be
noted, however, plenty of spread remains in ensemble guidance and
the deterministic QPF output is toward the higher end of the envelope.
Expect more changes in the coming days.
*Main take away…..less liquid more snow/sleet*…..4+ days to iron it all out!
Shake your booty PWL!!
Thanks for the 'double report' (I know; it's odd your phone/computer does that).... from NWS....and the translation at the end (I appreciate the 'main take away)... I sure hope it holds. My little time and date site is pushing out 17" for the weekend event, but it did that last week, too. I look forward to all the updates on here. Thanks again.ReplyDelete
Damn it the double post again! Go ahead and delete one Dave, sorry!ReplyDelete
Darn technology I haven’t a clue why that happens and it’s not every time either.
Woohooo! Love the early chatter on this one.ReplyDelete
I'm trying not to think about this one too much so that I'm not disappointed by a 'dry slot', 'warm side' or the perennial favorite - 'steep gradient'. Still...I say Bring It!ReplyDelete
The models giveth and the models take it away! GFS has come way down on its predictions and moved slightly north with its heavy snow area…in fact most 12z models went on the warmer side of things with the storm moving too close to us. I feel there will be alot of back and forth with this and we won’t have a clear picture till Thursday night or perhaps Friday morning. Either way there’s a storm to monitor with the potential of a lot of snow, let’s see what transpires. Also of note the models picked up a secondary storm coming late in the weekend/early next week. we shall see!ReplyDelete
At least now Mr Novak used the words 'big storm' for this weekend; and NWS Twin Cities has a map of potential areas of precip..... but reading their 'what we don't know'.... shows there are a lot of variables between tonight and Friday, so keep the forecasts coming, you weather gurus on this site. Thank you.ReplyDelete
Not looking good for a large snowstorm for MSP! I know we still have 84+ hours ahead of us for changes but currently the models have the storm tracking too close to us bringing up warm air!ReplyDelete
Bummer. Thanks for the update, Bigdaddy. I wonder how much rain/sleet we will get. Then I can 'translate in my imagination' into snow! :+)ReplyDelete
Calling all weather lovers; if I didn't live in an apartment, I'd sure join. NWS Twin Cities is looking for precip observers/ hope the link works: https://www.weather.gov/mpx/2022cocorahsobservers?fbclid=IwAR0q8GcWFAsdiS8vxxP94jkZfY5qDN7vF6LAdR8sXaHvR3WCrKssd1MGaTAReplyDelete
I know it's looking more like rain for MSP with the incoming Friday - Sunday storm, but any models still hinting at snow?ReplyDelete
Not really. Maybe small amount on backend but nothing more than 0.5Delete
Quite odd and curious on why Mr. Novak has put the metro in a "moderate risk" for travel impact late Saturday into Sunday, claiming this one should be interesting and impressive storm! Everything Im hearing and seeing is showcasing mostly rain with a cosmetic tailend snow of an inch or less, what am I missing??ReplyDelete
Agreed, Jason and Tim. We will see if HE sees something 'we don't see.' It's going to be a wild weekend; in 'the olden days' this may have all been snow. OR: maybe he's saying it because of the very slight risk of severe weather?? Can't wait to see what enfolds.Delete
I was just looking at the map Novak put out on twitter. As Jason (above) said, the map puts the metro in a "moderate risk" late Saturday/Sunday. I too am a little puzzled about that. Also, I notice the track of the low is towards LaCrosse. Doesn't that usually mean the metro gets nailed with snow? What am I missing? Thanks!ReplyDelete
Well it would seem that Novak’s “interesting” comment is probably for the changeover from rain to snow Saturday night as some models are now predicting anywhere from 1-4+” depending on where you reside in the metro. I know models can’t be trusted completely because how they handled the last storm and this storm with large amounts of snow that went poof as we neared the event but they can’t be completely disregarded either we just need to see how it all shakes out. Also @Tim the low pressure is actually traveling closer then Lacrosse and is pulling up and wrapping warm air into the front side of this storm it’s after it passes when the colder air comes in that the rain goes to snow and depending on how much moisture is still left will determine our snowfall overnight Saturday.ReplyDelete
Potential Note: Thursday of next week looks more interesting then this weekend as a storm will spin up nearby on the leading edge of two clashing air masses with very cold air coming in from Canada and warm air to our south. Keep an eye on this one…as of now it has potential to be a big snow producer but we all know how those can turn out but we are long overdue for some significant snows.
Thanks for the info, Bigdaddy. When I see the possible rain amounts, I can't help but think, 'Ah, if that were all snow.' Thanks again, including the heads up for next Thursday.Delete
Oh, my. I just went to NOAA for the latest updates, and there is a Winter Weather Advisory for my neck of the woods: midnight TONIGHT til 9 a.m. TOMORROW. Ah, because we may get a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. No good. Be safe everyone.ReplyDelete
I think that freezing rain may moderately impact my travel! 😉Delete
As I figured Novak going with 2-4” tomorrow night….with 4-6+” not too for away….I always say and believe when it comes to snowfall there are always surprise sweet spots for each event let’s see if it will be us this time around!ReplyDelete
Still eyeing Thursday!
Should be fun to see how this plays out. It is not nearly as warm today as it was looking like it was going to be earlier this week. I know it will warm up once the next bulk of moisture pushes in, but by then, we may have more ice/snow than rain. And the track has shifted a notch south so that helps our snow potential. A surprise 2 to 4 inches would be awesome! Bring it! I love surprises! Wrap them in a bow and bring it!ReplyDelete
In the potential for a significance snow event for late this coming week is real.
Bring that, too!!!
I know it’s just one run of one model but the very latest 12Z NAM is depicting some crazy snowfall later after dark….they have anywhere from 1-8” south to north across Hennipen county, talk about a tight gradient. Somewhere near will be a surprise sweet spot for snow!ReplyDelete
@Bigdaddy, I noticed that too. Actually, over the last 4 runs the NAM has rather significantly moved the area of heaviest snow farther south on each successive run. Curious to see if this trend continues. The southward jog in the storm's track gives us snow lovers at least some hope. Last night the forecast high for today for the Plymouth/Maple Grove area was 45 degrees. This morning the forecast high for today is 37 degrees. It is noon and the temperature is at 34 degrees.ReplyDelete
Novak posted this on twitter 20 minutes ago: "Get ready for some razor sharp snow gradients tonight across portions of MN/WI, including the MSP metro. Come morning, some people will be upset, others ecstatic."ReplyDelete
My point forecast high temp for today has gone from 45 to 41 to 37 degrees in the past 24 hours. I like the trend!!Delete
Winter Storm Warning posted for Hennepin County...for up to 2 inches of snow, and maybe some ice. Seems more like a Winter Weather Advisory.ReplyDelete
The ice is what scares/concerns me. I'm old enough to not remember so many ice events in my youth, but maybe I just don't recall them. I'm praying for a quick changeover to snow. I once attended a conference in central Iowa back in the mid '90's and I had never ever seen so much sand everywhere. Sand on the walkways. Sand on the streets. Sand, sand, sand. I asked at the hotel, 'Why is there all this sand?' 'Because we get a lot of ice,' was the answer. I was happy to be 'up' in MN where we basically had snow. Now it seems we have more ice events. A safe evening/morning to everybody here as this warning plays out.Delete
Novak is almost always right. Weird evidence I just noticed: The HRRR model looks almost identical to Novak’s map with two areas of heavier snow. It is eerily the same and the HRRR just started looking like that. Unreal.ReplyDelete
And now it’s winter strike warning in place, some areas might get surprised with some heavy amounts close to home (4-6+)??
Here we go!! Bring it!!!
Oh, heck. Now we have a winter storm warning in two metro counties, including mine. ICE, ICE, please not so much ice. I always worry about the power grids holding. No power = no heat. Snow and sleet forecast for my area: 1-3". And yes, I agree with PWL: Novak is 'almost always right.' I hope it gets cold enough so that it is basically snow. Like I said last night: stay safe everyone. It's going to be very slippery out there.ReplyDelete
I'm getting really concerned about a significant ice event for the metro, there could be enough ice for a wide spread power outage problem. Our saving grace is if the models are holding on to the warm nose between 800 and 750MB to long. I'm hoping that dynamic cooling (where heavy precipitation cools the column) happens faster than what the models show.ReplyDelete
I have mixed rain/sleet right now at 33° degrees, the warm air never made it…this is setting up for an interesting night!ReplyDelete
So far it's pouring rain here in St Louis Park.ReplyDelete
Icing starting up in central Anoka. Can see the slush freezing / freezing rain. Need a fast changeover.ReplyDelete
Here it comes! Plymouth ready to get rocked by heavy snow!!! Bring it!!!ReplyDelete
Can confirm! Just took the doggo out and it’s coming down hard in Golden Valley….all ice now covered up, roads will be a mess. Good thing it’s the weekend.Delete
NWS reports MSP airport hit a record for precip yesterday (guess it was all rain?) of .80R inches on the daily climate report. Chan reports .67 and very little snow as of midnight. Can't wait to see the CoCoRaRaHA totals and ..... condolences to the folks in IA where they had 32 tornado reports/6 fatalities (kstp source). This was some storm system. Thank you all on this site for your updates as it unfolded.ReplyDelete
I just got up and see a surprising 3+“ of new snow on my front step. I was expecting a sheet of ice!ReplyDelete
Man did the snow ever deliver last night! Just about 6” here in Golden Valley, pretty much all after midnight! I believe the west metro was the jackpot on this one….I’m seeing a bunch of 4-7” snow reports all on the west side. Like I have said a few times each snowfall comes with surprises….NWS was really conservative with this one even after hoisting a Warning the totals forecasted was 1-3”….the closet was Novak if he had extended his 4-6” into the west metro he probably would have been spot on(but close enough, weather is hard to predict). Enjoy your Sunday Snow Day everyone!ReplyDelete
I woke up to a surprise 5.5 inches in Plymouth this morning! The second largest snowfall of the season. We got 7 inches from the December storm.ReplyDelete
Nice! Some of the CoCoRaHS observers have put out Hennepin County numbers of 4.5 inches in one Plymouth household; 3.3 inches Champlin; 5.2 inches Maple Grove; 5.8 Minnetonka; only 2.6 in Eden Prairie. I'm in SLP and there is only one observer who doesn't check in often. If I weren't in an apartment with a balcony not fully open to the elements, I'd sign up to be one of the observers. Congrats on your snow total, Schnee Meister.Delete
Nice!!! Plymouth jackpot!!ReplyDelete
My dancing worked!! It worked!!
When I looked out my window at midnight, I realized that my supply of depends was too low! I made it through the night!
Cleaned out 4" from the driveway, largest snowfall this year, several between 2 and 3.ReplyDelete
Almost forgot to check what snow MSP got after midnight in the storm we just had: 3.3 inches.... so that coupled with the record-breaking rain Saturday.... that was some precip-maker. Thanks everybody for the great discussion this past week. Keep dancing, PWL, as it's still just early March.ReplyDelete
60s next week?ReplyDelete
NOAA is saying I might get 1 or 2 inches of snow tomorrow night! Sweet. I hope it's true.ReplyDelete
Well, what a nice little birthday surprise for me. We went from 60% chance of flurries to 1-2" of snow here in SLP this morning. Woooo hoooooo. Snow globe heavy snow out there right now. It's two days late from what I posted above, but I'll take it. Hope the rest of you are getting some snow, too.ReplyDelete
Happy Birthday, WeatherGeek. Glad you got some snow as a present. I always wanted snow for my birthday, but being my birthday falls during the summer, that's not going to happen. We picked up about 1.5 inches of snow this morning in Plymouth/Maple Grove. I think we will see at least some snow again before the season ends, but there surely will be no snow over the next week or so with temps in the 40's, 50's and possibly 60's next week.Delete
Thanks, Schnee Meister. While it's very spring-like this week, looking out to next week, I hope the chances for snow here/there 'hold'....... one of my friends wants a couple more snowstorms, but I'm not sure that can happen with the way the pattern is looking. Glad you got your 1.5 inches Monday.Delete
I just want to say that for a fleeting moment my little 'time and date' is putting out monstrous amounts of snow next Wed/Th and wouldn't THAT be grand just in time for the NCAA Women's Final Four week/weekend of action and free festivities all around downtown Minneapolis?? One can dream......... and keep an eye on the forecasts.ReplyDelete
Hey WeatherGeek - Can you put the link to the time/date thing you reference here so I can check it out? Thanks!ReplyDelete
Sure! I have also checked online to see what they use to come up with these forecasts. :+) https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/minneapolis/extDelete
And I found this is to 'how' they come up with forecasts because again, it's not always super accurate, though Mr Paul Douglas also mentioned 'plowable' next week in his daily summation. But here is some info on Time/Date "Where Does the Weather Data Come From?Delete
CustomWeather provides the weather data on timeanddate.com. They use weather stations at airports, stations run by the World Meteorological Association (WMO), and MADIS weather stations which are typically a community effort.
Oh, and here is Paul Douglas's statement in today's Strib column: "It's still early for rampant speculation, but models print out potentially plowable amounts of snow next Tuesday." We need PWL to start dancing up a storm, a SNOWstorm.Delete
Maybe one last thread, Dave?!ReplyDelete
Point forecast is up to 6-11” for Wed-Thursday!
I just shot off an email to email@example.com after hunting for Dave's post where he put up the email for us. Hoping he starts a new thread. If it stays cold enough, somebody is going to get a substantial shot of fresh snow mid-week, and a lot of it. Novak had a post on FB about a 'bad feeling' and 'hoping you haven't put away your winter gear'...... meaning somebody is going to have a fun winter storm. May it be the metro area, right? :+)Delete
Jaw, what point forecast site do you use? Can you share the link?ReplyDelete
Hey PWL…. I am adding up the totals for my location (west of the metro) using Wx UndergroundReplyDelete
Well, it's Sunday night; the little Time/Date app is still putting out 'ginormous' amounts of snow in the metro. Even if half of it fell, it would still be a nice pile of white stuff. Can't wait to see what happens........ReplyDelete
What app do you use?ReplyDelete
I just use 'time and date'.... I posted I think on this thread where it gets the info from. I know there are probably way better ones, and it's maybe going to be too warm for a pile of snow, but it's been putting out substantial amounts of precip since last week for this coming T/W/Th. I wrote to Dave to start a new thread, but haven't heard back from him, yet. I'm no meteorological guru, just always interested in reading the posts here/hoping for some whopper storms. :+) I follow Mr Novak on FB, too, and have enjoyed this site for many, many years. But back to the question, it's posted above in our posts..... 'time and date' and then I click on Minneapolis/14 day outlook. I always say, "Time will tell."Delete
After watching the WX Channel this morning, it appears the incoming storm is going to be mostly rain with maybe a mixed bag on the back side. What are others seeing?ReplyDelete