Monday, March 28, 2022

Mid-week Storm

 I was on vacation and haven’t been monitoring the weather but I received a couple of notes requesting a new thread. 

 Some of us are hoping you will start a new thread in anticipation of a blast of snow that somebody may get around here....”


So have at it!

28 comments:

  1. Thank you for posting the thread, Dave!! Drats on warm temps; snow totals are 'falling' but we definitely will have a chunk of precip. "If only......" Hoping some others hop on even if the models are showing mostly rain v. snow for the metro area. Just checked Novak's FB page. He's got the metro in the 'low/just pay attention/no worries' and north of the metro/northeast MN in the 'moderate/anticipate problems' bullseye........ but also mentions "still tons of ???? and lots of variables.' So let's see what happens.

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  2. I want to thank you once again for posting the new thread, Dave, and again for keeping this site alive. Looks like the metro is gonna to be mostly rain/slush, so for we the snow lovers, we must continue waiting probably til next winter season for some accumulating snows. If this is 'it' then I must say, 'Have a great spring/summer/fall y'all, and see you next winter!'

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  3. 33° and rain is the worst weather! Growing up on the east coast there was two forecasts we snowlovers hated to hear….one was “snow changing to rain, high near 40” the other was 33° and rain! I have to think this is “it”….the maps looked promising for most of March when looking at future models but as we drew near the event it was usually too warm or all the snow action would be for northern Minnesota

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    1. 100% agree, bigdaddy. I grew up right here in Minneapolis; this would have been one nice big snowstorm 'back in the olden days'.... and the inch of rain we had earlier this month would have also been another good pile of snow. I'm listening to ice crystals hitting the windows right now. Times have changed. Of course people will argue we can still get some good snowstorms in March/April (witness 2018) but I do not remember so many huge rain events like this in the past 'winters'........ lucky northern MN. Some day they may end up like this, too, 'down here.' Oh, and here is a little clip/quote from online about 2018: "The largest April snowstorm in the Twin Cities was the April 13-16, 2018 Thunder Blizzard that dropped 15.8 inches at the Twin Cities International Airport." Ahhhhh. Sweet memories.

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  4. If this is indeed the end of the season, thank you all for participating and we’ll see you next winter!

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  5. Thank you, @Dave, for keeping this site alive! I'm always done for a snowstorm, even this late in the season, but with April knocking on our doorstep, maybe it's time for some 60s and sun?

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  6. First, hang in there, @WeatherGeek! I know you haven't completely written off snow and we should know better as April (and even May) can bring us some surprises.

    Here is where I am at: If it is going to be a mix of things like today and mid-30s, then just bring on the 60s and 70s! Bring all that!

    However, if we can get a record breaking type storm (or even something that comes close), I would take that in a second! If that can happen.......Bring it!!!

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    1. You know me well, PWL. Have a great non-winter season, and I look forward to your dancing and predictions/analyses this fall. And yes, many thanks again to Dave for keeping this site alive.

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  7. Ok I’m going to just come out and say this….the GFS model for awhile now cranks out some MAJOR snowstorms for us when looking out into their 7-14 day model runs and their 18z model run this evening is no different. I know some of you look at models as much as I do to see what’s on the horizon….well if the GFS is anywhere near accurate for next Wed/Thurs it has a bomb of a storm for us with over a foot of snow. Now take this with a grain of salt because most likely it will change because like I said in a earlier post models look good in the future but as we draw near it usually is a nothing burger but I will say this the other global models(Euro/Canadian/UKMET)all show a storm as well, and one final caveat for those of you who lived thru the Halloween Blizzard of 91’, what the 18z GFS just showed was a eerily similar storm track of a storm forming in S.Texas and coming up thru Arkansas/Missouri/Illinois and stalling and spinning over Wisconsin…I’m not saying that will happen but currently that’s what it’s showing, now come tomorrow it might be totally gone or different. I know I know I like at too many weather models but that’s the weather nut inside of me I guess, I should really stop looking because all it does is get my hopes up to only let me down the next day.

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  8. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1991_halloween_low_track.jpg
    Track of Halloween Blizzard of 1991

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    1. Thanks for the info. I just read a comment from one of the NCAA Women's BB Tourney fans who is here this weekend, and being from AZ, she is disappointed there is no snow. I guess our reputation for snow continues! I hope your printouts/computer runs stay 'cold' v warm. Here comes April.

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    2. Oh: p.s. I read the comment from the BB fan in the local paper. And yes, the Halloween Blizzard was 'something else' .... we've all got stories to tell, those of us who were here. :+) Please dance, PWL. I finished my weather spotter training last week.... so my brain is on updrafts, downdrafts, and shelf v wall clouds!! But some snow would still be sweet.

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  9. Here comes Novak with some more potential snow maps! I love these surprise snow events. I don't want an inch - bring 3-6 and that would be fun! Bring it!!

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    1. Oh, YAY! NWS is saying 1-2" tonight in the metro?? And there are some nice BIG snowflakes flying outside right now. Dance, PWL! Thank you. Even though it will melt, it's still awesome.

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  10. Real nice snowfall right now! Great intensity, huge flakes, accumulation on all surfaces, everything is a blanket of white! Absolutely beautiful, go figure soon to be April 4th! Enjoy it because will melt tomorrow in fact should be near 70° week from today. Probably one of our last snows of the season…maybe some Wednesday night, and possibly something after the few warm days next week…but snow is living on borrowed times the deeper we get into April!

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  11. Unreal!! Unbelievable!!!! Is all I can say on the 06z GFS model output for the next 15 days. They consistently show heavy amounts all of March and now April….none of their significant events have come to fruition, so again take what they are showing with a heavy dose not grain of salt….but they are showing 4 separate snow events starting with tomorrow and 3 more next week to the tune of 30+“ right here in the metro…can they continue to be awful or will they knock one out if the park before winter is finally finished??

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  12. Big ole fat flakes in west metro right now….temp at 35° so melting on contact.

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  13. As per the NWS discussion this morning:

    Things look to turn rather interesting Wednesday as a long wave
    trough comes out of the Rockies, resulting in strong cyclogenesis
    over the central/southern Plains. We are seeing the spread you would
    expect to see this far out, but when looking at ensemble mean MSLP
    forecasts from the GEFS/EPS, you see a surface low track that favors
    us being on the cold side of this system, which means cold rain
    and/or snow. This storm looks to tap into Gulf moisture and we are
    seeing some rather significant QPF amounts from individual GEFS/EPS
    members (and it`s not an insignificant number for a week+ out).
    Included with this heavy QPF are some rather large snowfall numbers
    on the northwest edge of this heavy QPF shield. At this point, all
    you can really say is that trends with this trough will need to
    tracked closely in the coming days and we are nowhere near being out
    of the woods for seeing winter weather yet.

    This should certainly peek some interests, maybe one of these long range forecasts showing big snows may finally come to fruition….it’s a lot of moisture on the models if it comes in all or mostly snow there are some big numbers being displayed. We shall see winter holding on!?!?

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  14. Replies
    1. No, don't bring it! Bring sun and warmth!

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  15. Mr Novak mentions a 'monster storm' midweek/next week.... and it sure looks like parts of northern MN hit the snow jackpot again today. Temps look to be warm here, though...... so let's see who gets what! PWL: dance, please, even though it seems we in the metro will mostly get rain..... I'm happy for all this precip. Humans and creatures need it.

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  16. I was just looking at MSP airport/NWS data for this year. So far we are 3 inches behind in snowfall since March 1, but +1.73 inches of precip overall. And we have had a lot of rain. AND, finally, we are +1 inch in snowfall, with the average being a paltry (in my way of thinking) 48.9 inches of snow for this time of year. I'm surprised our snow historical average is so 'low'.....

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  17. Looking at the signs for the big storm next week. At this point it appears northern MN will once again be in the "Have", as opposed to "Have Not" category with the snow. What a winter they have had up north, and it appears it will go out with a huge blast of snow! Meanwhile those of us in southern MN, who have basically all winter been on the outside looking in when it comes to snow, will likely see a couple inches of heavy rain with possibly a brief transition to snow on the backside of the storm? Being it is April, I am less distressed the Twin Cities will likely miss out again on a snowstorm while our friends of north get buried in snow...again! At any rate, it will be something interesting to watch and talk about over the coming days.

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  18. I found this article interesting about the upcoming storm. Sven did a great job putting the historical significance in mathematical terms. It was really informative, and a fun way to get hyped for a big event!

    https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-weather/explainer-the-ingredients-fueling-next-weeks-severe-weather-hype

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  19. Looks like North Dakota is going to get slammed.

    From Bismarck's NWS discussion- If you have not yet prepared for this storm, NOW is the time.
    This has the potential to be an historic storm that could flirt
    with records in some areas depending on the evolution. Areas most
    heavily impacted will likely see extreme disruptions to daily
    life and life threatening conditions if stranded. Travel will
    become very difficult, if not impossible. If you have travel
    plans, please strongly consider changing those plans or
    cancelling. This will not be a storm to take lightly.

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    1. Yup! Early on in the model runs that kind of setup was on top of us(especially the GFS)but like the last couple of months the heavy snow has shifted either north or west with time and this one is no exception. Some places in ND will easily cross 2+ft of snow.
      @PWL if you have some sick time use it and travel west young man and report back to us….hahaha!
      After tomorrow and Tuesday the temps drop for the next 7-10 days where we won’t come close to average and will be our last shot/hope for snow….then it’s real spring and us snowlovers go into hibernation.

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  20. Happy Easter 🐇🐣 to all the weather enthusiasts on here!! Enjoying the Easter flakes that Mother Nature is providing today? I would say that’s a wrap on our favorite winter precipitation for the season, even though the GFS is showing one more shot at the very end of April, but I have come to learn that the GFS this spring has been very horrible with its predictions especially 10+ days out, but one thing is for certain April will remain cooler the rest of the month and will be the 4 consecutive month with below average temperatures to start 2022.

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  21. Mr Novak just posted on FB that some areas of ND/northern MN are running '300% to 400% above normal' in the precip department, and we're talking snow. The 'fluff' dreams are made of. I don't envy the flooding, power outages, etcetera, but that's a lot of snow. What an odd 'spring' we are having.

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