Monday, January 16, 2023

Increasing chances for snow Wednesday Evening to Thursday

Nothing like a Viking playoff loss and a healthy shot of rain to kick off January!

Hopefully we can turn around this bad luck with a snow system that is aiming for Southern MN but may creep up to toss a few inches on the metro. 

So will we get that northern shift or watch it pass below the metro?

31 comments:

  1. Latest Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
    ------------------
    ECMWF 6.8 (12Z) 8.2 (00z),
    GFS 2.8 (12z), 2.8 (00z)
    GDPS 6.4 (12Z), 2.3 (00Z),
    NAM 5.1 (12Z)
    RDPS 6.1 (12Z)

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  2. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 16, 2023 at 7:12 PM

    Need more analysis about the midweek storm. Trending the right way. Bring it!!

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    1. Not good PWL, 00z models coming in(GFS/NAM specifically) gets metro very little to zero.

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  3. NOAA 'currently as of 4:22 a.m.' has a possible 3-5" for the metro Wednesday night/Th morning, and I see winter storm watches south and east of us, but 'who knows?' One can dance and pray. This rainstorm has been wretched for we who love snow. What a January of contrasts. Keep those models coming and thank you in advance.

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  4. Latest Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
    ECMWF 5.7 06Z
    GDPS 6.6 00Z
    GFS 5.1 06Z
    HRW FV3 4.3 12Z
    NAM 4.1 12Z
    NAM 3km 8.5 12Z
    RDPS 6.3 00Z

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    1. This feels like a trend upwards….there’s another 36ish hours until it starts and several more model runs…. I hope the storm keeps scooting north!!

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  5. Latest (ALL 12Z) Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
    ECMWF 5.7
    GDPS 5.7
    GFS 7.1
    HRW FV3 4.3
    NAM 4.1
    NAM 3km 8.5
    RDPS 4.2
    HRRR 6.7
    Model Blend 4

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  6. Totally random note for those who are interested in winter history and these rains. From Paul Douglas's column in the local paper today:It's still disconcerting to see heavy rain falling in mid January. "Dr. Mark Seeley confirms four times more rain and icing events for the Twin Cities and far southern Minnesota since 2000. The ongoing warming is showing up in odd ways. It still snows and we still complain about cold fronts, but it doesn't stay as bitterly cold as it did most recently in the 70s.

    The 30-year average of subzero nights for an entire winter at MSP is 20. So far this winter? 6 consecutive subzero nights before Christmas. Since then MSP has been at or above zero." Let.It.SNOOOOOOWWWWWWW.

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    1. 1976 - GLOBAL COOLING

      1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000

      2000: Children Won’t Know What Snow Is

      2002: Peak Oil in 2010

      2008: Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013

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    2. So Mr Gore was off by 22 years per current Google searching and it seems sea levels are rising; I won't argue about it, but the climate has definitely changed in my humble opinion. Thanks for the info, Ben. On another note, NWS now has 3-6" of white stuff for the metro, so BRING it. Dance, please, PWL.

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    3. Blah blah blah... anytime out government says we can solve it just give us more money while we fly on our private planes... should probably br skeptical... and yes this storm seems to be moving more north.

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    4. Any chance we can have comments removed that are completely devoid of accurate science?

      Mostly being facetious, but this nonsense permeates the comments on EVERY SINGLE POST OR ARTICLE about weather in all forms of media. It brings down the quality of the conversation everywhere it happens, as well.

      There's nothing to discuss or debate. It's just trolling.

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  7. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 17, 2023 at 5:57 PM

    Doing the “Move North” Dance!! Bring it!!!

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    Replies
    1. Nice to wake up to a WWA and 3-6" of snow forecast for tonight/tomorrow. Oh, yeah.

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  8. Wish the models had come north. Two inches of snow is nothing to write home about here in the northwest burbs. Good luck to our friends in the southern burbs and farther south. We will await the next system.

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  9. Anyone with computer model access wish to post the latest totals from the models?

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  10. NWS has new graphics out and have moved the WSW into Dakota and Washington counties. Metro forecast is now 4”-6” so slight bump up.
    I thought the 12Z euro run showed less snowfall for metro not more. The 18Z NAM is showing 6” near the metro. HRRR had 5”. I’m no expert just reviewing free updates at windy.com

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  11. Uhh...what happened to the snow? Maybe only 1" here in 55126

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  12. Two inches here in Maple Grove, as expected. Possibly we can eek out another inch before it's all over? Nothing to write home about.

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  13. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 19, 2023 at 7:14 AM

    2-4 can be 2 inches. 3-5 can be 3 inches. Will be an accurate forecast. Just not the upper end that my dance was trying to accomplish. Either way, still snowing.

    Bring it!

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  14. I agree, PWL. There was a point during this past week when forecasters weren't calling for any snow in the Twin Cities. It will end up being an accurate forecast. It just isn't the Twin Cities' snowstorm. I will take 2-3 inches to freshen things up. Looking forward to the next storm that targets the metro. Too bad Monday's storm was such a dud with mostly cold rain. That would have been a nice dumping of snow for the metro.

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  15. I just shoveled 3-4” in eastern Anoka county and the radar the last hour has snow further north than forecasted. I am pleasantly surprised, but yeah it’s a quick snowstorm.

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  16. I do have a bit more snow now. I read the NWS "timing" map as I was going to bed last night and expected the heaviest snow to fall between 11pm and 3am this morning so I was surprised when I looked out the window this morning. Yes, weather changes and evolves and I'm happy this one still produced!

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  17. This is why Arctic air sucks, one it’s way too cold and two it pretty much shuts off any snow. Besides a possible 1-2” this week when the Arctic air arrives then it becomes arctic “boring” weather for the foreseeable future. Someone said earlier the 15” event at the beginning of this month will carry the month for snowfall is very true.

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    Replies
    1. I love snow storms but if the Arctic air brings some sun that lasts more than 35 minutes I'll be happy.

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  18. According to the NWS someone COULD end up with up to 5” in the CWA by Friday 1-2” and then 1-3”….we’ll see what happens. Then brutal COLD!

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  19. Will be boring for awhile
    Get used to it.

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  20. As us winter fans keep looking for snow, here are the February temp/precip outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, issued/updated today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

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  21. Fantasy land GFS forecast, Day 11 calls for a healthy 8+ snowstorm on the 18z. Will it continue or disappear on the next run.

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