Nothing like a Viking playoff loss and a healthy shot of rain to kick off January!
Hopefully we can turn around this bad luck with a snow system that is aiming for Southern MN but may creep up to toss a few inches on the metro.
So will we get that northern shift or watch it pass below the metro?
Latest Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
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ECMWF 6.8 (12Z) 8.2 (00z),
GFS 2.8 (12z), 2.8 (00z)
GDPS 6.4 (12Z), 2.3 (00Z),
NAM 5.1 (12Z)
RDPS 6.1 (12Z)
Need more analysis about the midweek storm. Trending the right way. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteNot good PWL, 00z models coming in(GFS/NAM specifically) gets metro very little to zero.
DeleteNOAA 'currently as of 4:22 a.m.' has a possible 3-5" for the metro Wednesday night/Th morning, and I see winter storm watches south and east of us, but 'who knows?' One can dance and pray. This rainstorm has been wretched for we who love snow. What a January of contrasts. Keep those models coming and thank you in advance.
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
ReplyDeleteECMWF 5.7 06Z
GDPS 6.6 00Z
GFS 5.1 06Z
HRW FV3 4.3 12Z
NAM 4.1 12Z
NAM 3km 8.5 12Z
RDPS 6.3 00Z
This feels like a trend upwards….there’s another 36ish hours until it starts and several more model runs…. I hope the storm keeps scooting north!!
DeleteLatest (ALL 12Z) Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
ReplyDeleteECMWF 5.7
GDPS 5.7
GFS 7.1
HRW FV3 4.3
NAM 4.1
NAM 3km 8.5
RDPS 4.2
HRRR 6.7
Model Blend 4
Totally random note for those who are interested in winter history and these rains. From Paul Douglas's column in the local paper today:It's still disconcerting to see heavy rain falling in mid January. "Dr. Mark Seeley confirms four times more rain and icing events for the Twin Cities and far southern Minnesota since 2000. The ongoing warming is showing up in odd ways. It still snows and we still complain about cold fronts, but it doesn't stay as bitterly cold as it did most recently in the 70s.
ReplyDeleteThe 30-year average of subzero nights for an entire winter at MSP is 20. So far this winter? 6 consecutive subzero nights before Christmas. Since then MSP has been at or above zero." Let.It.SNOOOOOOWWWWWWW.
1976 - GLOBAL COOLING
Delete1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
2000: Children Won’t Know What Snow Is
2002: Peak Oil in 2010
2008: Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
So Mr Gore was off by 22 years per current Google searching and it seems sea levels are rising; I won't argue about it, but the climate has definitely changed in my humble opinion. Thanks for the info, Ben. On another note, NWS now has 3-6" of white stuff for the metro, so BRING it. Dance, please, PWL.
DeleteBlah blah blah... anytime out government says we can solve it just give us more money while we fly on our private planes... should probably br skeptical... and yes this storm seems to be moving more north.
DeleteAny chance we can have comments removed that are completely devoid of accurate science?
DeleteMostly being facetious, but this nonsense permeates the comments on EVERY SINGLE POST OR ARTICLE about weather in all forms of media. It brings down the quality of the conversation everywhere it happens, as well.
There's nothing to discuss or debate. It's just trolling.
Doing the “Move North” Dance!! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteMe too!
DeleteNice to wake up to a WWA and 3-6" of snow forecast for tonight/tomorrow. Oh, yeah.
DeleteWish the models had come north. Two inches of snow is nothing to write home about here in the northwest burbs. Good luck to our friends in the southern burbs and farther south. We will await the next system.
ReplyDeleteAnyone with computer model access wish to post the latest totals from the models?
ReplyDeleteNWS has new graphics out and have moved the WSW into Dakota and Washington counties. Metro forecast is now 4”-6” so slight bump up.
ReplyDeleteI thought the 12Z euro run showed less snowfall for metro not more. The 18Z NAM is showing 6” near the metro. HRRR had 5”. I’m no expert just reviewing free updates at windy.com
Uhh...what happened to the snow? Maybe only 1" here in 55126
ReplyDeleteTwo inches here in Maple Grove, as expected. Possibly we can eek out another inch before it's all over? Nothing to write home about.
ReplyDelete2-4 can be 2 inches. 3-5 can be 3 inches. Will be an accurate forecast. Just not the upper end that my dance was trying to accomplish. Either way, still snowing.
ReplyDeleteBring it!
I agree, PWL. There was a point during this past week when forecasters weren't calling for any snow in the Twin Cities. It will end up being an accurate forecast. It just isn't the Twin Cities' snowstorm. I will take 2-3 inches to freshen things up. Looking forward to the next storm that targets the metro. Too bad Monday's storm was such a dud with mostly cold rain. That would have been a nice dumping of snow for the metro.
ReplyDeleteI just shoveled 3-4” in eastern Anoka county and the radar the last hour has snow further north than forecasted. I am pleasantly surprised, but yeah it’s a quick snowstorm.
ReplyDeleteI do have a bit more snow now. I read the NWS "timing" map as I was going to bed last night and expected the heaviest snow to fall between 11pm and 3am this morning so I was surprised when I looked out the window this morning. Yes, weather changes and evolves and I'm happy this one still produced!
ReplyDeleteThis is why Arctic air sucks, one it’s way too cold and two it pretty much shuts off any snow. Besides a possible 1-2” this week when the Arctic air arrives then it becomes arctic “boring” weather for the foreseeable future. Someone said earlier the 15” event at the beginning of this month will carry the month for snowfall is very true.
ReplyDeleteI love snow storms but if the Arctic air brings some sun that lasts more than 35 minutes I'll be happy.
DeleteAccording to the NWS someone COULD end up with up to 5” in the CWA by Friday 1-2” and then 1-3”….we’ll see what happens. Then brutal COLD!
ReplyDeleteWill be boring for awhile
ReplyDeleteGet used to it.
As us winter fans keep looking for snow, here are the February temp/precip outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, issued/updated today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
Thanks for the links, Schnee Meister.
DeleteFantasy land GFS forecast, Day 11 calls for a healthy 8+ snowstorm on the 18z. Will it continue or disappear on the next run.
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