Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
NWS forecasts a couple of systems moving through beginning Valentine’s day and bringing some mixture of snow and rain, with the chance for some accumulations.
Should be one to keep us guessing!
Wow latest GFS run this morning shows 20 inches for goodhue county and about 24 for rochester and about 15 for the metro. Might get interesting.
Most models have snow to the north/west on Tuesday then south/east Thursday. Virtually missing the metro with just some cosmetic stuff. GFS only one holding hope, so thru experience we know that won’t last, this thread will be short lived after all is said and done.
Thanks for the new thread, Dave.
It will be interesting to see what happens. You can see the apprehension with the comments/forecasts of the local weather people. It is also evident in the uncertainty in the NWS discussion. What is also very interesting is that the GFS has been VERY consistent with showing significant snow for later this week. While I know the GFS isn't as "accurate" (according to some), it has been very consistent over the last 5 days. Very impressive!!Bottom line - BRING IT!!!
12z GFS is showing maybe 4 inches for the metro?
For some reason this thin won’t let me sign in today. This sure seems like it will stay south of the metro. As usual need it to have it over the US for better measurements. P.S. I am biased, flying out of town Thursday! Sorry PWL - NO SNOW!
I've been doing a lot of reading and research, and I'm really getting the feeling February is going to be an absolute waste of a winter month this year for the Twin Cities. I know...I know, that's really profound and insightful given the current trend. Before I go any further, know that I am a huge winter fan!! I am not trying to be antagonistic. I feel that for the rest of the month we will have a day here and there that is cold, and we will see snow fall from the sky, but it doesn't appear it will be much. February will essentially be March this year. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal in February, just like January. However, unlike the first half of January (which is when the lion's share of our snow fell) February snowfall will be well below normal. I see that the latest run of the GFS has crashed back to reality and is only predicting 2 inches of snow for the metro between now and the end of the month. Yes, that's only one model run, but it is now in line with the Euro. Also, there are indications (sudden stratospheric warming event) March and April will be chilly and potentially messy, thus a late start to spring. I hope I am wrong. Otherwise, in my opinion this is a terrible combination of events: A winterless February followed by an uncomfortable March and April when most people are looking forward to spring, not wet snow, cold rain and chilly temperatures. Thank you for allowing me to share my thoughts.
Thanks for your thoughts and analysis. My eyes were bulging out of my head at the insane snow totals predicted for the past week, this week, and the next. I imagined PWL needing extra energizer batteries for his snow dances. You've brought me back to reality. I'm a snow fan, too, though without all the smarts that a lot of you have and share here on this blog. Keep posting!
Just saying, that in the 'olden days' all the rain coming this week would be one nice big snowstorm. :+( Rain, rain, rain.
Paul Douglas reports today at the Strib: January 19 (3.5 inches) was our last plowable snow in the metro; and we've only had a tenth of an inch of snow this month after our 55 inches the first half of winter. It goes with what Tim is saying above, definitely.
This season reminds me of the 91-92 season. The first half of the season was very cold and snowy (Halloween blizzard, November blizzard, several below zero days/nights). Once the calendar flipped to January 1992, winter pretty much disappeared for the rest of the season.
GFS caves to King EURO, not much more to say, mentioned it on the other thread, this wasn’t going to be a wintery week n the GFS looked foolish.
I just believe plenty of snowlovers on here are just spoiled and disappointed at the same time, let me explain. Spoiled because November(13”),December(20”), and January(22”) had all above average snowfall and we attained our seasonal average. But then I think everyone thought we were going to runaway and have some amazing season(but to date it has slowed considerably) add to the fact that tomorrow will bring the 2nd rainstorm totaling over .50” liquid since we attained our seasonal avg and only 7” of snow has fallen since 1/5 they are disappointed on what “could have been” and with the prospect of no snow this week and possibly another southern miss next week(most models are showing right now)the disappointment mounts. We got too much to fast and now snowlovers are bored and frustrated because the snow is melting it’s getting pretty dirty and rain is coming with no prospect of adding more snow in the near future (unless u believe the day 13 blizzard on the current GFS, and look where that got u this week)
Good assessment. 100% true for me. Definitely spoiled and marveling at this 'March' day. Thanks for your explanation/data.
I agree with Dry Tongue’s comments. I always appreciate everybody’s comments/thoughts and perspectives on this site. I will add that while I am personally disappointed at the collapse of this winter (like the collapse of my Eagles’ defense last night during the second half of the game!) and the complete shutdown of the snow machine, I am also disappointed with the temperatures. Way too many days in the 30’s and 40’s in January and February this year (43 degrees again today). That has played havoc with enjoying winter activities. The warm weather is rapidly melting the healthy snowpack (and ice) we once had and could still be enjoying even though it has not snowed in the past five weeks or so. Funny how we get El Niño-like weather during La Niña winters, but it doesn’t seem to work the other way around. I mention that because the prediction is for El Niño to return next season. Uuugghh
I like how we hear all the time on the news about the harms of global warming, but I watch the news every night and see the anchors and weather people absolutely jubilant and giddy over the unseasonably warm weather. Heck, we have had very little very cold weather this season, but they are acting like it’s been subzero for the last three weeks. I never hear them comment that the persistent very warm weather is not a good thing, and for a variety of reasons it’s not!
Exactly! CNN had a story today about how trees/flowers are blooming three weeks earlier than normal in the eastern USA. I can put the link here, and while it is not 'us'..... it is alarming. One of my relatives has a business here in MN that is winter/snow dependent, and this is not the winter weather of his childhood in the Twin Cities. I'm always praying for cold/ snow for him/us during this time of year. Prayers just are not enough these days. Sorry about those Eagles, Schnee Meister! Here is the link for the article about early blooms out east. Instead of 'let it snow' I guess the mantra for this week will be, 'let it rain/mix in a little slush/BUMMER! https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/13/weather/weather-news-early-spring-warm-spring-wxn/index.html
Weather Geek, thank you for the condolences about my Eagles. As for the “warming” topic, I just watched WCCO and KARE 11, and as the poster said, the anchors and forecasters were ecstatic about the abnormally warm weather. They used words “beautiful” and “wonderful” to describe yesterday, today and days coming up after our heavy RAINY day tomorrow (possible record rainfall!) and chilly weather Thursday and Friday. I agree with the poster that I never hear anyone on the newscasts comment that having consistently well above average temperatures is a sign of something bad with our climate. I also agree that they act like we have been in the deep freeze for weeks on end. So goes the “wimpifying” of formerly winter hardy Minnesotans.
I have to say this rain in the middle of winter is such a bummer, and it’s not just a little rain their now talking over an 1” of rain and now thunderstorms added(man what a snowstorm this could have been), I can see grassy areas in my lawn and will just get bigger and bigger today and be left with just the dirty piles on the front of my home.There’s a glimmer of hope reading the NWS discussion for next week:Mostly dry conditions are expected. Mid level ridging will build inby the weekend and above average temperatures will return. Thepattern could become more active next week with another troughdeveloping over the western U.S. and a sizable upper disturbanceadvancing into the Plains midweek. With arctic air just to the north,this potential system would have some baroclinicity to work with andwill need to be watched over the next week.I know it’s out there in fantasyland, but I rather see that then the reality of today!
@bigdaddy, you're reading my mind! I feel your pain. As a winter fan, I find this to be so demoralizing! A friend who is a big summer fan said this would be like having chilly, rainy weather in mid-July. This winter got out of the gate in a flash. It held such promise for being a great winter season...until it fell apart and essentially became late March weather. I looked out the window yesterday and noticed some grass and small barren spots. This morning the bare spots have grown exponentially. Not only is this a rainstorm in the middle of February in the land that used to be known for its winters, but it is the second large rainstorm in the last month. Let's not forget the rain in mid-January. On TV they kept saying the January storm would have been 10 inches of snow. They are saying today's storm would easily be a foot of snow. I wonder whether there are any records reflecting the number of "rain days" in December-February in the Twin Cities weather records history? It would be interesting to see how rare this is, if at all?
It is so weird out there today. Pouring rain, and 2/14?? My daily calendar is the "MN Weatherguide" that includes averages and records for each day....... Our normals are 28 high/12 low; record high is 50 in 1882 and record low -25 in 1875. Record snow for today is 6.4 inches in 1950. I told Schnee Meister below that I would enjoy that link mentioned to look at other numbers from 'back in the day.' This could have been a HUGE chunk of snow!
Given winter's current extended vacation, I thought some of you might instead use some of your time to review Twin Cities weather archives (see link below). It shows high/low temp, precip amount and snowcover depth for each calendar date, going back more than 100 years. Very interesting! While there were some epic winters long ago; the data shows it is a myth that all Twin Cities winters were long, cold and snowy "back in the day".
I'd love to follow the link, but I don't see it, Schnee Meister. I need to go see what my childhood/college years were 'really like' v making stuff (snow) up in my mind, ha ha. Thanks if you can post the link. Much appreciated.
My apologies!! I got distracted with something else. Here is the link. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/listings.html
Oh, rats. I get an 'error' message and a spinning wheel that is 'retrieving data' and nothing much happens. Did you see any trends, Schnee Meister? Or could you wager this is actually a 'normal' winter based on historical records?
WeatherGeek, I just tried the link and it worked fine. Try it again and be sure you are copying the entire link.
I think it's my very old laptop's issue. On my phone I can get it, but then it's tedious to look at data. It's an awesome site. I will bookmark it for when I have a newer machine. Thanks again for the link. It's good to have. This rain........ rain, rain, rain. It sure does not feel like winter.
No, it doesn't feel or look like winter at all! In a word...this rain SUCKS! Notice that when it does get cold enough for snow the storm is going to miss us to the south. Sunny and cold with crunchy snowcover. Then after a day or two it's back to 40 degrees. Worst February ever!
And now we have a winter weather advisory in my part of the metro through 9 tomorrow morning; I don't like the words 'flash freeze'.... 'falling tree limbs'....... 40 mph winds..........freezing slush. Ufduh.
P.S. Forecasters are hinting at a more active SNOW pattern next week because of colder temps/chances for the white stuff a lot of us are longing for. We can hope/PWL can dance.
To those who are commenting about a wimpy February in terms of snow: Ummmm…..it is only barely the middle of February. And here we come with the active weather. Bring it!!
The next ‘chance’ of significant snow is 8-9 days away which puts us around the 23rd, a mere 5 days to months end, so the month will be barely almost over. Can’t you just admit February has sucked and been a dud those far.
@PWL, I understand what you’re saying, and I appreciate that the definition of “wimpy” might vary from person to person. Personally, a winter month with well above normal temperatures, no snow for at least the first three weeks, and a record rainfall is by my definition very wimpy! As Jason said, the next chance of significant snow isn’t until mid next week (and there is definitely no guarantee that will happen). That is less than one week from the end of the month. In my opinion, it could snow 50 inches mid to late next week with well below normal temperatures, but that would not change the fact that at least 80-85% of this month was a 100% bust and absolutely wimpy.
Well, my calendar next year will show a record breaking .68 inches of rain at the airport for yesterday per the NOAA site this morning. Chan got .9 ..... if that could have been snow, I say wistfully. Onward.
From this AM NWS CWA Discussion:As for next week, we`ll have a rather volatile pattern setup acrossNorth America as significant slug of arctic air builds on the frontrange of the Canadian Rockies down into the the northern US Rockies.At the same time, an anomalously strong subtropical highs willsetup over the Bahamas. The arctic air in Canada will supply us withplenty of cold air this time around, while anti-cyclonic flow aroundthe Bahamas high will send moisture surging north out of the Gulftoward the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This is a favorablelarge scale pattern for seeing above normal precipitation up here.Exactly where this strong baroclinic zone ends up will determinewhere the storm track ends up next week, but we are seeing signs ofa weaker wave passing through early in the week, with a moresignificant system possible for the second half of the week. It`s abit early to get wrapped up in any details, but it certainly looksfavorable for seeing winter reassert its control over the regionnext week.Very encouraging words if you’re a snowlover, but you need to read between the lines, we can easily end up with the cold and little to no snow, because track matters. Don’t forget the week we’re in right now both yesterdays and tomorrow’s(the one hitting Iowa/Wisconsin)systems were modeled as snowstorms hitting MSP. So bottom line is the cold push could be too much allowing the track to be unfavorable. Already the overnight models has the Euro taking a big storm south of us and naturally the GFS giving us a blizzard.
Thanks for the info/analysis, Dry tongue. Much appreciated.
SOMEONE will see a big storm in the midwest next week when the pattern shifts….and now we have something to track and discuss. It’s going to be an entertaining week as the storm materializes and we see which snowlovers win the lottery!
It's still a week away, and for whatever it's worth, as of this morning the Euro and GFS are calling for a TC metro snowstorm with anywhere between 6-17 inches.
This statement in the NWS discussion this morning is what I am talkin’ about!!!“This final month of meteorological winter has certainly been tame from thewinter weather perspective to this point, but it`s looking likemeteorological winter will go out with a bang.”BRING IT!!!
Weather Channel app already showing 7-13” in west metro for next Wed/Thru, what can possibly go wrong?
NWS forecast discussion this afternoon. Whoever wrote this is not at this time very bullish on a big storm next week: "Light snowfall amounts are possible early to mid-week (perhaps up to an inch or so) but mid to late week a compact vortmax may eject out of the longwave trough and produce snowfall amounts of 3-6 inches of greater somewhere across the Upper Midwest. There is a large range in guidance - yes, yes, some solutions dohave nearly a foot of snow... but even more solutions have less than an inch. The most likely scenario is 1-4 inches on Thursday, but this can change, and this storm could cause difficult travelconditions on Thursday."
I'm not sure why the NWS discussion is downplaying the potential of next week's storm. Are they (or at least whoever wrote the discussion) being ultra conservative/cautious? I just checked the 12z Eruo, which is showing 17 inches for the metro. That is up from the 00z run, which reflected 6 inches. The 18z GFS is showing 18 inches. The 12z GFS showed 22 inches. The 00z and 12z Canadian shows 13-14 inches. I do agree with the NWS comment that things could change. After all, it's still a week away.
Things WILL change! This storm will bob and weave it’s way north and south in the coming days and likely leaving us guessing until it’s here. And that’s fine….it’s what makes this fun to track! We get to hope (whether you are hoping for a snow explosion or a bust), we get to compare models and different meteorologist interpretations, and then report snow totals from our porches. Enjoy the ride!
This is from a NWS employee on Twitter:Next Wednesday night and Thursday look troublesome. A double-barreled low pattern like this can produce a ton of snow. Not something I want to see anymore this winter, but at least we haven't had much in the last 3 weeks.I’m thinking and I say this knowing it’s still 6 days away but boring weather may soon be over?
Happy Friday, Everyone! Excerpt from the NWS discussion this morning: "The end result is a long duration set up for accumulating snow. This system is still several days away, and a lot has to happen between now and then. However, it is a strong storm, there should be an active front nearby, and the residence time is such that some locations could see accumulating snow for nearly 36 hours. The end result of this scenario would be snowfall totals in excess of a foot. We are not saying that your location will get a foot of snow, rather we are saying that the potential is there for a significant snowstorm, and this system is worth monitoring. We do expect at least some accumulating snow for most locations, and this would lead to travel impacts, regardless of exact snowfall amounts."
Thank you, Joe and everyone else for keeping up the discussion/predictions/etcetera. Keep it coming!
Yes, thank for commenting on this blog. The anticipation of a large snowstorm is why I come here and check frequently to see what you guys/gals post or learn or read. I love the lead up to these things and I think most of you do, too. We're due for a "Halloween Blizzard" type storm, right? ;)
Tweet from meteorologist on Twitter (Bill Borghoff): “The NBM, or a large number of a diverse set of models blended together, shows something I've never seen this before so far out. 90% chance of 8 inches and a 10% chance of 28 inches. Bottom line, pay attention next week. Things can still change, but wow what a signal.”Average of all the models that make up this ensemble is 18 inches! Bring it!!!!
I was thinking we need to take up a donation for you to support all the dancing you will be doing between now and next week: new tap shoes, depends, hydration tabs and maybe a pizza or two.
@WeatherGeek, sorry I haven't had a chance to respond to your inquiry on Feb. 14 regarding if I found any weather trends in my review of the historical winter weather records for Minneapolis. There is so much temperature and precipitation data to condense I don't have time to relay it all to the group. I will say that by reviewing the data I am left with the general impression that it has not been uncommon over the past 100 years or so for Minneapolis to experience stretches of very warm weather and stretches of very cold weather during the core winter months of December, January and February. I will also point out that there have been past winters with a lot of snow, very little snow and what we deem to be an average amount of snow (approx. 45 inches). I was recently reviewing the 1930's, so I will share a couple of temperature examples from that decade. Example 1: for the period January 18, 1936 through February 22, 1936, Minneapolis recorded a low temperature below zero every single date. The overwhelming majority of those dates saw a low temperature of at least -10, ten nights in the -20's and a -34 on January 22, 1936. I can't imagine how brutal it must have been to experience that. Even with our modern heating systems and conveniences such a cold streak today would play havoc on so many people, animals and systems. In contrast, February 18, 1930 through February 23, 1930, recorded high temperatures every date in the 50's (including readings of 57 and 59 degrees), followed by highs in the 40's on February 24 and February 25, 1930. There are other similar examples throughout the decades, as well as just general examples of stretches with temperatures in the 30's/40's or temperatures below zero. I find it all fascinating, and for me it helps put in perspective the above average temperatures we have mostly experienced the past couple of months.
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I had to delete/fix a typo, ha ha. I wrote: Very cool. Thank you so much for doing all that work to investigate/compare different years during similar timeframes and report your findings. I know I've read that our winters are shorter and warmer overall, but it's interesting to see different time periods and temps during those times, too, and see that it wasn't 'always' one extreme or the other. I, like you, often marvel at how people (and some creatures) could survive any winters that were brutal without all that people have today in this part of the world to help us live to see another spring. And my models at 'time and date' have been pushing out 20 inches for Wed/Th this coming week, but I took screen shots of similar claims a couple of other times recently and nothing much happened around here in the metro. SO: 'can't wait' to see what the coming storm brings starting Wednesday. Thanks again, Schnee Meister. I really appreciate your work and reporting. "Let it S-N-O-W!' And P.S. I promise when I get a new laptop one of these months, I will check out that link you provided, too.
You're quite welcome, WeatherGeek. A trend I noticed is March used to overall be colder than it generally is now. Especially since 2010, March temperatures in the 50's, 60's and 70's have been much prevalent, as opposed to the 1930's through the mid-1980's. I didn't really notice any difference with November.
March is the new April and April is the new March.
Yes we need to give the government more money for climate change, the people flying around in the private jets everyday know more than us.... sense my sarcasm...
I see some of you are looking at tempertuer trends over the last few decades. It appears that many posts are comparing highs to years gone bye which is interesting, however I would recommend that you compare overnight lows.
Excellent point, Randy. Here is an interesting article from 2016 that addresses the physics of nighttime lows warming faster than daytime highs. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/03/160310080530.htmBtw, Randy, what is your take in the possible snowstorm next week?
New thread set up for next week's big?? storm (this is Bill).
Thanks, Bill! I hope all is well with you.
I seriously don't get why we don't start taking Temps at a different location when all the big cities are surrounded by pavement and buildings. It all has an effect on temperature. We can't compare 50 years ago to now with how big the cities are getting and expect to have the same temps.